SB Nation User Blog: Cards Fan in Chitown

I did a quick ranking of Cy Young contenders based on ERA, baseball reference ERA+, IP, FIP from fangraphs, and TRA+ from statcorner

Cards Fan in Chitown — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 02:33:36 -0000

I did a quick ranking of Cy Young contenders based on ERA, baseball reference ERA+, IP, FIP from fangraphs, and TRA+ from statcorner

Zack Greinke
Tim Lincecum
Felix Hernandez
Chris Carpenter
Roy Halladay/Adam Wainwright

Cobbler experiment a success?

Cards Fan in Chitown — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 23:54:13 -0000

Cobbler experiment a success?

I tend to agree with the article, although someone pointed out that schumaker's improvement in his defense correlated with the cardinals winning more games... and of course it's not that big of a boost to have a second baseman who is at least capable. but I have been a fan of the move since they did it, and for this season at least it has been a good idea (especially since Lugo arrived).

Pitching FTW

Cards Fan in Chitown — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 17:24:25 -0000

Our starting pitching is ridiculous... we are first in the major leagues in FIP. And it's not really that close. The Braves are second with 3.72 FIP, but the Cards are one of the most successful teams in the majors with a 3.54 FIP (5th in winning percentage at 20 games over .500). As expected, we have the highest ground ball percentage, and we have the 3rd lowest line drive %. So our starting pitching is one of the main strengths of the team, but not so much for our relief pitching.

By FIP, our relievers drop waaaaay behind the 1st place pace, the Cards bullpen being 20th in the majors. By ERA, the picture looks a little more forgiving since we are 13th overall. The bullpen is still inducing its fair share of grounders, but batters are teeing off on them for a 19% line drive rate, among the worst in the majors. It's not all that bad though, since the BABIP is .278 for the bullpen, but that's probably not completely sustainable. Thankfully the starters have been getting the bulk of the work, since our bullpen has pitched the fewest pitches and been involved in the fewest innings in baseball. Literally, the starters have by far pitched the most innings of any other team, and our bullpen has had by far the least amount of work. While the bullpen is vastly improved over last season, it still leaves a lot to be desired. Their HR/9 is not atrocious, but it's at 1.02, a little high I'd say. They are not striking anyone out, but the good part is that they are not walking a ton of people either. Our left on base % is ok, but of course it would be nice if we could pitch out of more tight situations. Makes those close games pretty crazy to watch!

Like last year, Kyle McClellan has been the workhorse out of the 'pen. He's pitched more than anyone else, only Ryan Franklin and Jason Motte are close. I'd like to see the guy used a little bit less, because my hunch is that he would do better if he didn't pitch as often. His FIP is 4.39, which is sort of scary to me, and I can understand now why people get a little nervous when he is pitching lately (still, his ERA is pretty decent). It's probably a secret to no one that His Suckiness, Ryan Franklin, and the Lefty Extraordinaire, Trevor Miller, are the saviors of the bullpen (and to a lesser extent, The Hawk has been very helpful as of late). Maybe I shouldn't forget Brad Thompson, since he's pitched a decent amount of innings, and his FIP is better than Hawksworth's. Reyes has also been pretty reliable, but has been quite average with a FIP around 4 (.1 WAR). Personally, once Lohse is back, I'd like to see Boggs get some bullpen time, but 2 innings pitched from the bullpen is not much to go by (although a 1.59 FIP looks nice).

We all know this team would be no where without Wainwright, Pineiro, and of course Carp... but Smoltz so far has cruised to a .63 FIP in 11 innings. Those 4 pitchers are worth nearly 14 WAR together (the team total being 15.5). Very nice! I think down the stretch, maybe we could use Smoltzy and maybe Boggs out of the pen if it gets tight.

So, to wrap this up, the Cardinals pitching is 4th in the majors in FIP, and 3rd in ERA, and 3rd in WHIP. For contrast, our hitting is almost identical to the Cubs in wOBA! 21st in the majors, behind the Cubs, never would have guessed that.

Shelby Miller to Quad Cities, to pitch Sept. 3 and 7

Cards Fan in Chitown — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 03:16:56 -0000

Shelby Miller to Quad Cities, to pitch Sept. 3 and 7

hopefully I will be able to make one of these games

Post All Star Break notes

Cards Fan in Chitown — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 02:02:42 -0000

Post All Star Break notes

Josh Kinney is not effective... ERA and FIP around 7 (does not included tonight's bases loaded walk)
the second half could involve lots of injured Derosa and Glaus. plenty of interesting storylines to follow there. hopefully this means less Thursty
Colby Rasmus is for real... .800 OPS for a rookie is very nice... 5.5 to 6 WAR player for a season is amazing (he's already around 3)... and he is already arguably the best defensive center fielder in the game
Brendan Ryan on defense is a ton of fun to watch at shortstop, he is rivaled only by Jack Wilson and JJ Hardy in defense... and he is one of their highest ranked in Spd 6.4 at fangraphs
who woulda thought our team's pitching would be lead by Adam Wainwright and .... Joel Pineiro? And Ryan Franklin being an elite closer? he sucks!

Ank vs. Dunc: Who Would Get Voted Off?

Cards Fan in Chitown — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 21:01:33 -0000

So, we have 2 redundant outfielders with similar skillsets. If we had the choice to "vote one off" the proverbial Cardinal island, who would it be?

First, let's look at Chris Duncan's statistics... he has 1286 career plate appearances, .817 OPS and .352 wOBA. I think it is safe to say that he is more "clutch" than Ank, but I wouldn't say by a huge margin. He has a better eye, but his defense in the outfield is not as good. His RF/G (range factor per game in LF) is 1.5 for his career. He doesn't have as good an arm as Ankiel, I think we could all agree with that. Duncan has 9 errors in LF for his career. By WAR, Duncan is 3.7 WAR for his career (.1 WAR for this season, his ceiling being in 2006 at 2 WAR).

Ok, Ankiel.... Rick has 963 plate appearances, or about 75% of the major league hitting experience of Chris Duncan. Since they've both been hurt off and on, I think Ank is more of a work in progress, which is pretty much just my opinion. Ank's career OPS is .786, which includes some time as a pitcher. Not drastically less than Duncan. His wOBA is .337, again, kind of in the same league of hitting capabilities imo. He's also a faster runner fwiw. In left field, Ank has a RF/G of 1.6 in left field, but has shown better numbers in RF and CF, so I think he may improve if he gets more playing time there. He has a rifle for an arm, and he could probably be a much better left fielder than Duncan if he gets more playing time there. By WAR, Ankiel is 3.8 career since 2007, again pretty comparable to Dunc.

So I think I prefer Ankiel at this point, but they are so close that I'm not sure what to make of it...

Ank's pros and cons:

less playing time in the outfield as Duncan, some of it playing while hurt. He is a better defender.
Ank has slightly more power than Duncan career-wise (higher ISO, idential SLG%)
Ankiel does not have a good batting eye, Duncan's is better. Ank does not handle pressure well.

Dunc's pros and cons:

the guy is a stretch to call an outfielder. the only reason he should be playing the OF is if he has power, which he doesn't really have a ton of (I'm not sure that I buy the argument that he will have more next season)
Duncan has good plate discipline, not great though. He goes through streaks like Ank does.
Duncan is not the fastest runner in the world, and is as cringe-inducing to watch in the outfield as Ank is to watch hitting.

So, not a ton of difference between the two, but I'd have to give a slight edge to Ankiel, if for no other reason, he has more speed and a better arm. They both could just be slumping this year and could swing out of this, and I'd love to hear everyone's opinions about this, because one of them should be riding the bench a lot more often, and I'd have to say that should be Duncan. Lastly, I'd like to note that Duncan's BABIP in 2009 is a lot higher than Ank's in '09, so I think that Rick has been a little unlucky (and at least he puts the ball into play more often).

Poll

Ankiel or Duncan, who should be playing more? Who should be voted off?

Rick Ankiel

124 votes

Chris Duncan

93 votes

217 votes | Poll has closed

team UZR ratings for the last year and a half

Cards Fan in Chitown — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:26:19 -0000

team UZR ratings for the last year and a half

I'm not sure if it is all Tony's fault, but our defense is not very good lately. I think this could partially be attributed to Tony's constant positional shuffling. Since muscle memory is a part of the game, I think it would help the defense if they were not moved around to different positions as much.

In defense of Tony, he is great about preparing the players for the game and getting them to try hard. And more importantly, his teams over the past few seasons have performed above their Pythagorean projections.... and you cannot deny his success. I just think he may be getting a little megalomaniacal with his constant need to tinker and make up new lineups, and is far too dogmatic with his adhering to matchups.

...not sure about the methodology that was used to write this article btw, my biggest concern being what if the team's last season of UZR ratings were from last year's players... did the author actually tally the individual players? Plus, I am highly suspicious of any article that has Detroit as far and away the best defensive team.

Wellemeyer's Velocity article on fangraphs

Cards Fan in Chitown — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 04:05:10 -0000

Wellemeyer's Velocity article on fangraphs

The article has sort of an cautionary tone as to Welleymeyer's drop in speed. Equating it to a probable future injury... I'm wondering, does Wellemeyer hitting 94 mph in tonight's win a good sign as to the possible injury? I admit, I'm slightly alarmed still, but also I think it's a good sign... the Cardinals could have been telling him not to push it in terms of throwing the fastball. Would it make sense for them to do that strategy and let him stretch out more gradually over the course of the season, especially since it is only his second season as a starter, the first of which he got hurt during?

League leaders, all-star voting, etc

Cards Fan in Chitown — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 02:35:38 -0000

So I like how the new All Star Game ballot lets fans see what a player's stats are... but found it to be pretty limited. So before voting any more, I wanted to do a little research and see who's shaping up to be someone good to vote for. And although you can only vote for hitters/position players, I also want to look at some good choices for pitchers to make the team, and of course, just to see how the season is shaping up so far.

First off, I am amazed at the season Jason Bartlett is puting together, sporting a mlb leading .373 batting average, .450 wOBA, 1.014 OPS, and 2.7 WAR all while playing plus defense at shortstop and stealing 14 bases so far. His BABIP is a little ridiculous, though. Still, I'll be voting for him at shortstop for the AL.

Next up, you can't deny what kind of a season Kevin Youkilis is having. His OPS is nearly identical to Albert Pujols, but he is leading the majors in wOBA. The guy is a solid defender, and his on-base percentage approaches .500. With a BABIP of .441 it's pretty doubtful he can keep up this level of play, but he can play first base or third and he has a high grit factor.

As an option if you don't like Youkilis (and illogically I'm tempted not to vote for him), there's Mark Texeira... he has a really high wOBA, a very decent OPS, good fielding, with a pretty low BABIP. 16 dingers doesn't hurt either. Carlos Pena is also having a fine season, but not quite as consistent so far.

It's pretty obvious who to pick at first base in the NL... your mang, Albert Pujols. Albert is rocking a .466 wOBA, yet has a very reasonable .313 BABIP. His ISO is 4th in the majors, at .337. For context, Albert's astounding 2008 season produced a .458 wOBA. Despite having an off year on defense, I would still trust his defensive capabilities to start the All Star Game.

Many thought the Phillies acquiring Raul Ibanez was a very bad move... but then again, the guy is having a ridiculous season. The NL is treating his not so good fielding quite well... while not being entirely accurate, at least he's putting up decent UZR numbers in '09. But mainly, I gotta like the guy having 19 home runs right now, an ISO of .366, and a 1.098 OPS. I'd throw him in the outfield and see what he can do with 3.1 WAR.

As much as I'd like to have Brad Hawpe in the lineup for the NL right now with his .439 wOBA, he is a scary bad defender. If Ibanez is going to be in the outfield, he's not much of an option, unless he's a bat off the bench with an OPS of 1.052. A far better option would be Justin Upton who is not as bad a defender, and is similarly capable at offense.

At 2B NL, gotta go with Chase Utley. He's a great defender, is at 2.5 WAR, .437 wOBA... and his ISO is his career best so far at .257. Vote Utley '09.

Another AL OF option is Adam Jones (not this Adam Jones). A .345 batting average is great, he's been sort of unpredictable at center field this year, but his career UZR/150 is 2.7 (1.8 in center). 2.3 WPA and 2.0 WAR are more nice incentives. Gonna vote for the guy I think.

For AL catcher, Victor Martinez is rocking 2.6 wins above replacement level. While I'm not too familiar with this player, his fielding stats don't seem toooo bad, and amazingly he is at .427 wOBA with an OPS of .992. Victor Martinez of the Indians should be catcher imo.

The best third baseman in the AL right now is Evan Longoria... .426 wOBA, 3.2 WAR, 13.8 UZR/150 (career 17.8). No doubt that this is the guy for 3B with elite stats like this.

Similarly, Hanley Ramirez should be starting at shortstop for the NL. The main concern being his defense, still it's at -7.4 for his career, not that horrendous... plus it is buoyed by his 2009 play at 12.8 (not too bad in '08 either). More importantly, he is 2.8 WAR, .971 OPS at shortstop, and is batting .344. Sweet.

Back to AL OF, Nelson Cruz of the Rangers is a great choice. .965 OPS, .416 wOBA, 2.5 WAR, plus defender, what's not to like?

Rounding out the outfield for the American League... I'm voting for Torii Hunter. The guy is a good defender, .417 wOBA, .976 OPS, 42 rbis. Not too shabby. Some would argue that Jason Bay would be a better choice, but he's more of a write in imo... he is not anywhere near as good an outfielder as Torii, and has a lower WAR this season.

To wrap up the AL voting, I'm going go with Ian Kinsler at the keystone. 2.6 WAR, improved defense this season, .398 wOBA, 11 stolen bases. Cool.

NL OF: I think Carlos Beltran is doing good enough to make the team. Mainly because of his .998 OPS. Some worrisome elements are his high BABIP and not so good defense this year, so I have to do the unthinkable and vote for 2 Brewers in the outfield: Mike Cameron and (annoyingly) Ryan Braun. Both of their WPAs are higher than Beltran's, as well as their ISOs. Mike Cameron is a better player than Braun at this point though.

btw, Kosuke Fukudome is having himself a very nice season... kind of makes up for this odd inclusion last season.

Third base is sort of a tough choice between Chipper Jones and Ryan Zimmerman. They are both batting .322, as well as having identical wOBA at .401. Weird. Their BABIPs are nearly identical too, but Zimmerman has a slight edge here probably. Shit, their OPS is basically equal too. In everything else though, it's not really close. Zimmerman has the fresh legs, and is just basically a better player at this point. While Chip's got the experience, Zimmerman's got the higher WPA, WAR, etc. Mainly it's the defense though. Ryan Zimmerman is way better there.

Finally, NL catcher should be Brian McCann. As much as I'd like to vote for Yadi, McCann is the far superior hitter and probably pretty comparable at defense. Yadi is a fine option though, obviously.

So, I'm going to make this next section about pitching much shorter. Can't vote for the pitchers anyway, so let's see who might make the squads... I am using a pretty simple new stat I made up today, an expansion of FWHIP in today's main thread... I call it FIBAWHIP, which means FIP + WHIP + BABIP (obviously BABIP isn't going to have much of an effect on the overall score). (Odd fact: Carp and Ron Villone are both 3 - 0)

NL Possibilities for Starting Pitchers

Chris Carpenter 2.789

Tim Lincecum 3.539

Javier Vazquez 4.034

Wandy Rodriguez 4.081

Johan Santana 4.147

Chad Billingsly 4.379

NL Bullpen options

Trevor Hoffman (!) 2.066

Jonathan Broxton 2.12

Ryan Madson 3.292

Jason Motte 3.983

AL Possibilities for Starting Pitchers

Zach Greinke 2.682

Justin Verlander 3.757

Roy Halladay 4.016

Andrew Bailey 4.173

Edwin Jackson 4.521

Darren Oliver (?) 4.07

AL Bullpen Options

Scott Downs 3.321

JP Howell 3.69

Matt Thornton 3.729

Scott Linebrink 4.249

I think the NL might actually win this year.

feeling good about carpenter, ankiel, birdos

Cards Fan in Chitown — Thu, 21 May 2009 03:48:29 -0000

Carpenter, after 5 innings vs. the Cubs and a win tonight, has a 0.00 ERA in 10 innings pitched this year. Last season, he pitched 15.1 innings and maintained an ERA of 1.76. For comparison, his FIP in 2009 is 2 and 3 in 2008. While obviously, that's not a whole lot to go on, and we have no idea if he will avoid the DL or for how long this year, it is a very encouraging sign that our team's recent slide is not going to be the character of this team.

What's made Carpenter so effective in his limited time the past few seasons is his mastery of his pitches... his WHIP so far this year is .7 and in '08 it was 1.3. Which is pretty fantastic even when considering how little time he's pitched. The last time he was a regular pitcher, way back in '06, he pitched over 220 innings, had an ERA just over 3, 3.44 FIP, and an amazing 1.07 WHIP... in '05 he pitched even more than that and had a 1.06 WHIP! To say those two seasons were impressive is a vast understatement. In a comeback year in '04, he pitched over 180 innings and posted a 2.04 WPA.

Career-wise, Carpenter is at a 4.05 FIP, largely due to his career with the Blue Jays..... oddly enough, his career ERA is also 4.05. Carp's ERA+ is 113 for his career, but was at 242 in '08 (remember only 15 IP though). His BB/9 is 2.7, but his 1.8 for '09 is closer to his career as a Cardinal. Having Carpenter in your rotation is like trading to get an extra strikeout for every game....

So far this season, it is encouraging to see that he is as effective as ever, SO/9 at 8.1, among his career best. One more little tidbit, his '05 season he held batters to a .230 batting average in over 240 innings! (.151 this season in a small fraction of the sample size).

So with what little info we have on his performance during the last few years, we can see that he has mastery over his specialty pitches along with being able to paint the corner when needed. The question of course will be how much he can pitch for us. If he holds up, he is even better in the playoffs so they will need to be careful with him, even while batting. I advocate him batting 9th when he plays, just to reduce a few at bats. I am very excited about Carp's return, but also a little nervous. Every start should be an adventure.

info. found at fangraphs.com and baseballreference.com____________________________________________

As far as Ankiel goes, they are taking it easy with him and not rushing him back into play when he's not hitting the ball well. Unfortunately, this means a few more days of Stavinoha, but hopefully this is the last time we'll need to have him on the team until Ludwick gets back. Ank is still a .803 OPSer with a career .345 wOBA, so he will still be nice to have back. Perhaps most encouraging for the team, will be a move to right field when he gets back, according to stlcardinals.com:

When he first returns, Ankiel is likely to play right field. He began the year as the Cardinals' primary center fielder. However, since he's been out, Colby Rasmus has played well in center, and the club believes that Ankiel might benefit from some time in right while he returns to full speed.

"That's one less issue, a little peace of mind there," La Russa said.