LAKELAND, Fla. – The Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals have recently discussed a trade that would send infielder/outfielder Ryan Raburn to St. Louis, according to one person in the industry with knowledge of the talks.

Raburn has been battling for one of the final spots on Detroit’s Opening Day roster, but left-handed-hitting prospect Jeff Larish may have moved ahead of him in the competition. The Tigers can send Raburn to Triple-A Toledo without putting him through waivers – he has one minor league option remaining – but they may prefer to trade him for a pitching prospect.

Raburn, who turns 28 this month, has played five different positions in the majors – all three in the outfield, in addition to second and third base – and it’s been said that his versatility would make him an ideal player for the National League.

Raburn, a .255 hitter in 153 major league games, is generally regarded as a better defender in the outfield than the infield. Detroit manager Jim Leyland has also said in the past that he could be an emergency catcher.

Giants manager Bruce Bochy confirmed on Tuesday that his bullpen will include Rule 5 draftee Luis Perdomo, despite the fact that Perdomo gave up a homerun Monday, his second in 11 IP this spring. 

So its now official.  The Cardinals gave away Anthony Reyes, in effect.  They have nothing left from trading Reyes to the Indians last year.  What an error in judgement. 

"The guy throws 93, 94 with a good slider. He's been impressive," Bochy said.

Perdomo has 3 saves in four opportunities, along with 2 wins this spring.  And he has 10 strikeouts in 11 IP, while he has given up 5 walks. 

It puts the Cardinals' error in focus to consider how doubtful it is that right now the Giants would make a straight trade of Perdomo for Brad Thompson.

Or imagine how much better the Cardinal bullpen would be right now if McClellan took over Thompson's role as long reliever and Perdomo took McClellan's role....

Or imagine Reyes still with the Cardinals, with Duncan and LaRussa letting him pitch from his strengths.  The 27-year-old Reyes went 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in six starts for the Tribe in August and September last season, after he was acquired in a July trade with the Cardinals.  Reyes has a 0.75 ERA this spring in four appearances, including 2 starts.  Sheesh!

I know, I know, that horse trade has already been beaten to death.  But with Perdomo now officially being kept by the Giants, it's time to note the last nail being driven into the coffin.... 

That the Cardinals have sent Chris Perez to AAA in favor of keeping Brad Thompson in the bullpen, demonstrates that in the roster formula for LaRussa and Mozeliak major league experience and the role a player is in (long term relief for Thompson) matter at least as much as superior talent (Perez vs. Thompson).

It seems a good bet that same formula will be applied in assigning one of these players to AAA:

• Thurston
• Ryan
• Barden
• Rasmus

The best move, IMO, would be to send Rasmus to AAA for a couple more months of seasoning, for these reasons:

• Just as the Cards have a surplus of RH relief pitchers, making it possible to send Perez to AAA to work on his conditioning and secondar pitches, the Cards already have a surplus of lefthanded outfielders, including Ankiel (full time) and Duncan (full time vs. LHP at least), and Skip Shumaker is said to be in line for a shift to the OF late in games when he is replaced by a reserve infielder with more experience at 2B (Ryan or Thurston or, best of all defensively, Barden)
• The market value for Ankiel and Duncan is not as high as it will be in a couple of months, if they show they are in full health (Duncan recovering from neck surgery, Ankiel from abdominal surgery).  Giving both maximum playing would be the best way to set up the most favorable trade of one of them before the July trading deadline.  Rasmus could then step into the role Rick or Chris vacate. 
• Rasmus, like Perez, has shown that he needs more seasoning to harness his own talent.  His hitting has been inconsistent this spring, despite flashes that show off his ample talents.  And he has even misplayed some balls in the field.  Giving Colby a tuneup at AAA and then moving him to the big leagues this summer would put him under less pressure than putting him on the opening day roster.
• The clock on the arbitration and free agent clock for Rasmus would be delayed a year if Colby came to the Cards this summer rather than in April.   That alone would mean that the Cardinals would be spending a whole year of Rasmus at low cost just for his playing part time for two months this season.  Mozeliak seems too smart at managing the team's assets to squander his player resources in that way.

So it shouldn't be a surprise if the Cardinals start the season with these players instead of Rasmus:

• Thurston - the only LH infield reserve with much power
• Mather - the only RH outfield reserve with much power and one who could platoon with Ducan vs. LHP
• Ryan - the best reserve at SS and a solid defensive reserve for Shumaker at 2B, with a couple of years of ML experience already
• Barden - another RH bat off the bench who could then sub in the field at 2B, 3B, or SS, with very good hitting this spring and a taste of ML experience, at least

The choice really seems to be between Barden and Schumaker.  A case can easily be made for keeping Rasmus and sending Barden to AAA, of course.  We might not know which way the Cards go until the end of the last spring training game: a nice little drama to make this last week of waiting for the real games to begin a bit less boring....

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Team culture seems to be one factor that makes the difference between winning and losing in sports.  I submit that premise for your discussion. 

Culture is the prevailing, persistent pattern of ideas, beliefs, assumptions, customs, symbols, and traditions that are shared by a group. Different teams, different cities have different cultures. They are ever evolving, but the core pattern of beliefs and assumptions tend to get passed down by various “rituals”, “legends”, “heroes”, and “myths” that express the core beliefs and assumptions and practices of the culture. This is what makes culture persist for a long time, changing much more slowly than particular customs and symbols do.

There is plenty of research evidence that every organization has a culture, and that culture has a significant, pervasive effect on the success of the organization.  (Anyone can google the question and find a number of articles from leading business schools and organizational psychologists.)  Rather than cite the dry academic evidence, I will post the much more colorful and entertaining evidence that can be found in articles by baseball writers and reporters.  I hope those who are interested in the question of culture will enjoy them.

Here is the first reference for your consideration:

How did the Rays do it?
By Gerry Fraley
SPECIAL TO THE POST-DISPATCH
10/21/2008

[Excerpts]

Joe Maddon insists that he is as “old school’’ as Branch Rickey....

(Outfielder Delmon) Young was among several young players whom Maddon felt had a sense of entitlement that turned the club into a splintered group.

“I was more concerned about building relationships and trust within the organization,’’ Maddon said. “The accountability factor had to be nurtured and grown. It was almost at zero.’’

In case anyone did not get the message, Maddon twice pulled talented center fielder B.J. Upton from games this season after he gave half-hearted efforts. Upton has tied a record with seven homers in the playoffs.

“We’ve always had talent over here,’’ Upton said. “In the past, it’s kind of been guys on the individual, trying to do their own thing. Now, we’re thinking like a team and playing like a team.’’

I remember seeing an analysis a year or two ago that showed that World Series teams usually have three things in common: strong starting pitching, an excellent closer, and excellent defense.  Offense is less important than any of those three factors. 

Based on those four factors, the Cubs looked like the team to beat this year in the NL.  And going into the playoffs, they still looked like the team to beat.  Jayson Stark, among others, picked them to finally go the World Series.  The Cubs had three excellent starting pitchers, a very good closer, and excellent defense. 

So how did the team rated the best in the NL get swept by a team with a .519 winning percentage, a team they had beaten 5 of 7 times during the regular season?

Iin the clutch, two of the starters failed, and the defense failed. 

It seems Dempster just didn't have the fortitude of a Carpenter or a Gibson, etc.; the pressure seemed to get to him, leading him to give far more walks than he did per game during the season. 

Then with Zambrano on the mound, the emotionally volatile narcissist, and erratic performer over the last half of the season, the Cubs seemed to tense up, and they made a record number of errors. 

Being in a deep hole by the third game, the pitching and defense returned to normal, but the hitters seemed to be pressing against a very good pitcher, and that was the end of the series. 

Reminding players of the "curse" by having a Greek Orthodox priest sprinkle holy water on the field before the first game at Wrigley probably didn't help put the team in the right frame of mind either.  Sports psychologists tell us that athletes perform much better when they aim for success rather than when they aim for avoiding failure. 

But aiming to avoid failure has become the definitive value and a core tradition of Cub culture. 

The Cubs don't need a lot of different players, other than to replace Fukedome with an impact lefthanded hitting outfielder.  Otherwise, the Cubs have an excellent lineup that needs only some tweeking.   

Nor do the Cubs need a new manager.  Piniella is very good. 

What the Cubs seem to need is to replace their culture of avoiding failure with a culture of anticipating success.  A real change in culture, not just the adoption of "Cubs swagger". 

Imagine what a Pujols or Gibson would do for that team.  Fortunately, the Cards have Pujols, and they have a deep tradition, going all the way back to the Gashouse Gang right up to the present of "Playing a hard nine".  Cardinal players in this era, like those since the 1920's, play like they have a chance to beat anyone, even when the odds seem stacked against them. 

The Cardinal culture of winning seems to be a key factor in the Cardinals having been the most dangerous NL team in the World Series in the last 100 years.  In the four Series they have lost in their nine since the end of World War II, there was either a fluke (in '68 superb outfielder Curt Flood slipping in center field against the Tigers in game 7, and in '85 the umpire's blatantly bad call at first base), or the team was deflated by a major injury just before the Series began (losing Vince Coleman in a tangle with the tarp in '87, losing Chris Carpenter to a nerve problem in 2004).  Even with those mishaps and missteps, the Cardinals are 5-4 in the World Series since WWII and 10-7 in their last 100 years.

Meanwhile, the Cubs have been losers of their last 12 final post-season series, including 7 World Series losses from 1908 to 1945.  Hardly anyone alive today remembers a Cub World Series victory.  No wonder the Cubs have a culture of losing.  Until that culture changes, it looks like a good bet that their tradition of ultimate futility will continue, even in years when the team has the talent to win.

Hey, all you Izturis detractors, why are you not lobbying for Izturis to be traded to the Dodgers?  (Jason Stark says the Boys in Blue are looking for a backup SS.  See below.)  Perhaps the Cards could replace Izturis with Brian Barden.

It is becoming increasingly clear that Brendan Ryan should remain a backup player.  He's only two years younger than Cesar, and Brendan has not done any better with the bat than Izturis.  In fact, their hitting stats are very similar, except Ryan doesn't even have one home run, and his ratio of strikeouts to walks is not nearly as good as Cesar's; and his fielding is not as consistently excellent, so actually Cesar has played better in the field and at bat.

 

Dodgers looking for SS

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

 

Posted by Jayson Stark

The Dodgers are now unsure about the future of two shortstops -- Nomar Garciaparra (who sprained a ligament in his left knee) and Rafael Furcal (back surgery) -- so they've resumed their search for another. But with Furcal expected to return in early September, the Dodgers don't seem to be focused on acquiring a front-line player. Instead, they've been inquiring about utility players -- bats off the bench -- who can fill in at short for a couple of weeks.

You just knew I'd have to comment on the day Izturis hit his first home run of the season!  And it wasn't a cheap shot, like Ludwick's bounce off the outfielder's glove just barely onto the top of the left field wall.  : )

John Mozeliak and Jeff Luhnow deserve kudos for their assessment of available shortstops last winter. Izturis, as projected by his performance the last time he was healthy and playing full time, is turning out to have been the best SS available when the Cardinals let Eckstein walk..

Current OPS ranking of the four most recent Cardinal shortstops (primary position):

• Izturis .695, 6 strikeouts in 118 AB's
• Ryan .689, 8 strikeouts in 58 AB's
• Renteria .650, 20 strikeouts in 156 AB's
• Eckstein .637, 12 strikeouts in 118 AB's

Izturis not only has the best OPS of the four as of today but he also has the best strikeout ratio by a large margin.

Izturis also leads the group with 3 SB's but he has been caught 3 times and he has twice as many AB's as Ryan.

Renteria leads the group in HR's but with only 3.

Defensively, Izturis has the best zone rating and scouts rate him the best fielder among the four.

Izturis, who will still be only 28 by the end of this season, is five years younger than Eckstein and Renteria (both 33 by end of season). Ryan will still be 26 by the end of this season. Brendan is only 2 years and a month younger than Cesar.

Plus,

• Renteria's salary this year is 10M
• Eckstein is getting 4.5M
• Izturis is getting 2.85M
• Ryan gets $393k

In addition,

• Ryan still needs more seasoning.
• Eckstein is more and more injury prone.
• Renteria cost valuable prospects and over three times as much in salary.

Out of the 40 shortstops listed in the MLB batting stats by ESPN.com, Izturis' current OPS of .695 now ranks 24th, just ahead of Boston's Julio Lugo.

No doubt azruavatar will say that Cesar's performance is "unsustainable".  We'll have a chance to test that hypothesis with a better sample size at the midpoint of the season.

But for now, considering Izturis' fielding excellence, his performance so far this season should be considered at least average overall among MLB shortstops, a lot better than the great majority of fans and sportswriters were predicting.

 

How is Cesar Izturis doing just over 20% of the way into the season?  Has he been a solid contributor, as this VEB  fan predicted in an earlier fan post?

Fielding

Cesar's RZR stands at .897.  That is second in MLB only to Troy Tulowitzki among qualified SS’s.  Izturis is still approximating the gold glove form he displayed the last time he was playing healthy and full time, in 2004 and early 2005.

Hitting

Cesar's OBP stands at .354.  That's better than the 7th ranking ML SS, out of the 25 ML SS’s with enough AB’s to qualify for the batting title.

But Cesar's SLG is very low, even lower than expected, only .293, slightly better than the 22nd ranking SS (out of 25).

That makes Cesar's OPS .647, very low, only slightly better than the 19th ranking ML SS (out of 25). 

That 19th ranked SS happens to be David Eckstein.

Comparing Izturis to all ML Hitters This Season

Many in this forum have repeatedly bemoaned Izturis' weak hitting (he's certainly no Renterria or Tulowitzki, we all agree), but a few have even referred to Cesar as the worst hitter in the major leagues.  Let's test that assertion:

Of the 193 qualified batters to date this season, 33 have an OPS lower than Izturis.  That is, Cesar has a better OPS than 17% of the full-time ML players.  Okay, he's not a great hitter.  None of us imagined he would be.  But Izturis so far has been a respectable hitter, though barely so.

The season is only one fifth finished, though.  So we can expect all player stats to gravitate, or regress, toward their career averages (or, more precisely, to the next point on their rising or falling career performance curve, depending on age and epxerience).  The fact that one fifth of a season is too small a sample size to make a projection for a full year is strikingly illustrated by looking at some of those 33 players who today have a lower OPS than Izturis but at least some of whom are extremely good bets to end up with much better numbers than Cesar by the end of the season:
 
Gary Shefield
Ryan Howard
David Eckstein
Adam LaRoche
Ryan Zimmerman
J.J. Hardy
Freddy Sanchez
Khalil Greene
Andruw Jones
Mike Lamb

Wow.  It will be a bit of a surprise for most fans to see Izturis hitting better than Eckstein.  But to see Izturis outhitting Sheffield and Howard is a shock!  Hail, Cesar! 

A Solid but Not Great Contribution So Far

So far, Izturis is right on track to match his OBP from his last period of good health and full time play (2004 and early 2005), so we should expect about the same OBP the rest of the year.  His .293 SLG is 40 points lower than his career SLG, though: .333.  And his SLG this year is about 90 points lower than Cesar's .381 SLG in 2004, his last full year of healthy, full-time play.  So it appears safe to say that we can reasonably expect Izturis to hit more doubles and a few more triples than he has so far this season.

Let's check in again at the mid-point of the season and see how Izturis is doing by then, when we'll have a more solid basis for projecting his stats for the whole year.

It took awhile for Cesar Izturis to get the rust out in spring training.  By the last week of the exhibition games, Izturis executed what Rooney and Shannon called the best defensive play by any player they had seen on any team all March.  Finally, St. Louis fans and sportswriters are coming around to recognizing that Cesar Izturis is an exceptional fielding shortstop (always has been, except when he was having hamstring problems or suffering from an ailing elbow that required ligament replacement in 2005).

But the misperception continues that Izturis is "the worst hitter in baseball", as some have claimed  This despite the fact that Cesar continues to show good plate discipline, with few strikeouts, a good number of walks, and a tendency to hit solid line drives.  Cesar has never had much power at all, but, for the Cardinals so far in this budding season, he has been getting on base and not giving up AB's, which is primarily what the Cards want their #9 hitter to do batting behind the pitcher and ahead of Pujols:

After 10 games of the regular season, Izturis has an OBP of .394, better than every player on the team with more than 12 AB's, other than Pujols.

But Izturis has a SLG of only .308 (his line drives have been caught most of the time so far).  That should go up if he keeps hitting line drives.  At this early stage, Cesar's SLG is better than that of Duncan, Kennedy, and Miles.  And his OPS of .702 is better than that of Duncan, Schumaker, Kennedy, and Miles.

An earlier indication that Izturis had regained his timing as a hitter was that Izturis had a BA of .300 and OBP of .417 in the Cardinals' last nine games of spring training, when the Redbirds and other teams were playing their regulars for the final tune-up for the season (after the Cardinal brass met on a day off, March 19, to make key decisions on the final roster).

People continue to ignore the fact that the last time Izturis was healthy, in 2004 and the first third of 2005, he was a very respectable hitter.  His poor hitting in the last half of 2005 was at a time he was seriously ailing, and his poor hitting during the last half of 2006 was when he was back from major surgery and playing only part time (which may have kept him from regaining his timing).  His poor hitting during the first half of 2007 came at a time when he was again playing only occasionally because he had a prolonged hamstring problem. 

If you examine the pattern of development for Izturis over his career, it becomes evident that after his first two years, when he was pressed into duty for the Dodgers at the age of 22, before he had had time to become a big league hitter, Izturis did, at the age of 24, become a respectable hitter.  The last stretch of his career when Izturis was fully healthy and playing full time, at the age of only 24 and 25, his batting average was .301 and his OBP was a very respectable .344.

Given the persistence of the perception that Cesar can't hit at all, it's worth repeating that his .344 OBP came in 889 consecutive AB's over the season and a third in 2004 and 2005, before his physical problems began (elbow, hamstring, etc.). Izturis' AB's in this period amount to 33% of his career total of 2751 AB's before the Cardinals acquired him.  That's too large a sample size of consecutive AB's to ignore, but people continue to do so.... 

Izturis is healthy and playing full time.  Let's give this former Gold Glover and All Star a chance to show what he can do under those conditions rather than reciting over and over the notion that he can not make an important contribution to the Cardinals this year.