SBNation.com User Blog: CarlosT

How group stage style playoffs might work

CarlosT — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 08:16:11 -0000

In Episode 77 of Nos Audietis, Jeremiah mentioned someone's proposal for a playoff system based on group stages. (I apologize, I can't remember the original source of the idea). As he explained briefly, the teams would play in groups, and the seeding would determine how home and away would work out. I wanted to take a look at how that would have looked like with this year's playoffs.

This is how the Western Conference would have looked:

Place	Team	Home Games	Away Games
1	Earthquakes	3	0
2	RSL	2	1
3	Sounders	1	2
4	Galaxy	Play-in spots. Winner of one-off qualifier match would have no home games and three away games.
5	Whitecaps

Each team plays away matches with the teams above them in the table, and home matches with the teams below them. The same tiebreakers apply in this competition as you would have in the regular season. At the end of the matches, the top team advances to the MLS Cup.

This seems like it would have a lot of advantages. It really rewards the regular season. Sure, just squeaking into the playoffs via the play-in spots is better than not making it, but it's a much harder road, and each spot up the table from there is progressively better. I can imagine the playoff positioning fights getting even more heated because the difference between the seeds would be pretty significant. Because of that, I think it's also probably more likely to send the top teams through. I also think it would really encourage attacking soccer, because no one has any reason to play conservative tactics. There's no "hold them away then get them at home" strategy. You get one crack at each team, and you have to try to get maximum points out of each game. Finally, logistically, it's the exact same number of games, one play-in game, and six regular playoff games.

There's a lot of dissatisfaction around the playoffs in MLS now. I think this system or a system like it could do a lot to alleviate that, and generate a lot more excitement as well.

This is how the Western Conference would have looked:

Place	Team	Home Games	Away Games
1	Earthquakes	3	0
2	RSL	2	1
3	Sounders	1	2
4	Galaxy	Play-in spots. Winner of one-off qualifier match would have no home games and three away games.
5	Whitecaps

There's a lot of dissatisfaction around the playoffs in MLS now. I think this system or a system like it could do a lot to alleviate that, and generate a lot more excitement as well.

My crazy plan to beat the Galaxy

CarlosT — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 08:29:51 -0000

The team lines up in a 4-3-1-2 like this:

Johansson	Hurtado	Parke	Gonzales
Alonso
Rosales		Tiffert
Fredy
EJ		Estrada

This puts a big/small pairing up front like Sigi likes, but it's a fast big/small, and one that can run on to clearances from defense. Having EJ back puts teeth back into the threat of crosses, even if it's been established that it's an overused tactic. The beauty of this, though, is dropping Montero back into a central attacking mid role. He's got a long distance shot which makes him a constant threat from outside the box. If the team is flooding one particular side, he can drift that way and support the play. If they're switching fields, he can be an outlet for a quick pass to the other side. If EJ or Estrada run wide onto a long ball, he can make a run into the box to the post that isn't taken. He can make late runs into the box if all the early shots are covered.

This plan gives the Sounders much greater attacking flexibility, and takes much better advantage of Fredy's skills. If we're going to see the minor miracle we need, that's something that needs to happen.

The team lines up in a 4-3-1-2 like this:

Johansson	Hurtado	Parke	Gonzales
Alonso
Rosales		Tiffert
Fredy
EJ		Estrada

So now that EJ's broken the Sounders' single season scoring record...

CarlosT — Sat, 15 Sep 2012 02:04:57 -0000

I'm going to go on record and say my initial skepticism of him has been proven unfounded. I hope he can help us get over our playoff woes and win the title this year. Then he will have proven my doubts totally, completely wrong, instead of just 99.999% wrong.

That is all.

A Crazy Idea for Better Playoffs

CarlosT — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 22:54:58 -0000

So the playoffs are impending, and it hasn't escaped notice that the way it worked out this year is just plain wrong. Playoffs, however, are here to stay and especially because schedules are likely to become unbalanced. So how do we set up playoffs so that playing better is always rewarded?

In my opinion, the biggest problem with the playoff system as it stands is what this year's playoffs highlight: the possibility that superior teams will face off prematurely, thereby eliminating better teams while inferior teams skate by against equally inferior opposition. That either the number two or number three team in the league is guaranteed to miss the second round is just plain ludicrous, and it hurts the credibility of the MLS Cup. In a playoff system that is as fair as possible, this situation should be impossible.

Following that line of thought, I've devised a playoff system that consistently rewards better play during the regular season, and yet can easily coexist with unbalanced schedules:

I. Everybody makes the playoffs

This will seem completely weird, since the race to make the playoff cut is such a huge part of the American sports scene, but in a league with as much parity as MLS, having some arbitrary number of teams in or out of the postseason actually decreases the incentive to win in the regular season. Yes, it's important to win so you can make that cut, but after you're in, it doesn't make a huge difference where you are. It's possible the extra match will add a bit more cost to just nipping into the playoffs, but with parity the way it is, it's still very possible for a team that just barely qualified to win the whole thing.

II. The regular season is for seeding

Instead of using the regular season to define who's in and who's out, this playoff system would use it to rank teams in their conferences. The way the system will work out, being higher ranked will always be better. Because everybody makes the playoffs, almost no teams will have nothing to play for at the end of the season. It's true that a team might lock up a place before the end of the season, but the vast majority of teams will still have the possibility of moving up or down on the last day. This will matter as we will soon see.

III. Conferences play their own mini-tournaments - no crossovers

In situations like the past couple years, where one conference has been much stronger the the other, crossover has create some perverse incentives to finish lower rather than higher. No crossover means that the relative strengths of the conferences matters less.

The conferences would play off in seeded single elimination style tournaments, except with aggregate home and away matches. The first legs would be at the lower seed in midweek, with the second legs at the higher seed on weekends. In a seeded 10 team tournament, seeds 1-6 get byes into the second round while seeds 7-10 play off in the first round. Also, the top seeds are separated off into separate sides of the bracket so higher seeds cannot face each other until later rounds.

IV. The winners of each conference tournament play in the MLS Championship

This could either be a two legged final, as I would prefer, or a predetermined neutral site. I like the former option because I think it would be great for the fanbases of those top teams to see their team play for a trophy live. Those of us lucky to be at the USOC finals played in Seattle know how special that is.

Why is this better?

This system would be an improvement over the current one because every team would have an incentive to improve its positioning if it can until the very end of the season. Then once the postseason started, this system would reward the best performing teams with byes and potentially easier opponents. No exclusion and no crossover means that the difference in quality between the conferences will matter less, because we won't have the situation were a team in the better conference misses the playoffs while an inferior team in the weaker conference makes it. We also won't have the strange situation where it may be better to finish lower rather than higher. Finally, this format will give the MLS Cup the most credibility, because the competition that decides who wins it will be as fair as possible. The last team standing will have a very strong claim to being the best in MLS.

Sounders fan won't see one team at home next year

CarlosT — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 22:41:12 -0000

So I talked today to a Sounders rep, and the season ticket for next year includes 17 MLS matches, which means the Sounders won't have a home game against at least one other MLS team. It looks like the unbalanced schedule has arrived. Personally, I'm not pleased by this development, because I think balanced schedules make for a better league. MLS is already has a huge quality disparity between the conferences, and going to an unbalanced schedule will only exacerbate the problem.

Thursday Tactics 'n' Things - Red card! Now what?

CarlosT — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 16:08:57 -0000

Uh oh, the hand is going to the back pocket, is he really...

No way!

While ejections exist in the traditional American sports, their versions have nothing quite like the impact of soccer's red card, because they all allow you to replace the ejected player. That means that despite the loss of the player, the team can still carry on with standard play. If the player lost was a star, they might be less effective, but the way the game is played isn't radically changed. The closest the non-soccer fan is going to come to the dynamics of the red card is the power play in hockey, but that expires and the teams are soon on level terms again.

So, what to do? There are at least three levels that have to be addressed when responding to a sending off. From bottom to top these are the personnel, the formation, and tactical plan. And there's one big factor that's going to drive what a coach does to each of these: what kind of player was sent off?

Keeper

Losing a keeper is usually a major blow to a team's chances because there's often a large dropoff between the first and second string. However, beyond that there's the simple fact that keeper is the one truly non-optional position. That's why when formations are listed, the numbers only add up to 10. That there will be a keeper is assumed and it's always a given where he'll be. You can play around with the numbers and places when it comes to defenders, midfielders, or forwards, but there's always has to be one and only one keeper in one and only one spot.

This means that one way or another, a personnel change will happen and an outfield position is going away. If you have a substitution, then it'll be used to get your backup keeper on. If not, someone in shorts is going to have to pull the gloves on. Generally speaking, the most likely players to come off are attacking players. With a less experienced or completely novice keeper back there, the first thought is going to be defensive solidity, and that means the the players most likely to get the hook are the offensive types, the attacking midfielders, wingers, or forwards. In the same vein, the formation and tactical plan would most likely become more defensive in an effort to protect the newly introduced keeper.

Everybody else

I was going to go forward line by line but I realized that there are no guarantees with the outfield positions. It's all much more fluid. Because of the defensive concerns playing a man down will tend to create, the general principle is the further back the field the player is, the more likely changes will be. However, this will depend greatly on the previous preparations the team has made. For example, losing a defender is much more likely to result in a substitution than losing a forward, but if the personnel on the field have a lot of training playing in a formation with fewer defenders, say a 3-4-3 or a 3-5-2 instead of a 4-4-2, it might not be so hard to adapt to a 3-4-2 or a 3-5-1. Further, the tactical plan might well become more defensive, but it might not if the personnel on the field are capable of maintaining attacking pressure without leaving dangerous gaps in the back.

Thursday Tactics 'n' Things - Set Pieces

CarlosT — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 06:36:20 -0000

Today's TTnT is brought to you by the letters R, S, L, C, and K and by the numbers 2 and 3.

RSL, of course, is Real Salt Lake, who have the most Euro-poser name in the league, at least until Garber announces the introduction of Bayern Milwaukee. CK stands for corner kick, and two is the number of goals that RSL scored off corners in their last game, played at home against the Philadelphia Union. And last, but emphatically not least, three is the number of points those two well-worked corners reaped for the Royal team of Utah.

All of which is another way to state the blindingly obvious: set pieces are important. Various studies at various times from various competitions have shown that around 30-40% of goals scored are from set pieces. Interestingly, the Sounders and RSL have scored and allowed an identical tally from set pieces, 15 for and 8 against. For RSL, that works out to around 43% of their goals scored and 38% of their goals allowed. The Sounders have more goals scored and allowed, so it works out to 36% of their goals for and 28% of the allowed.

It would be great to see an actual, in-depth analysis, and if anyone has a good source of data for set pieces in MLS, please put it into the comments. In any case, that RSL has what seems to be a higher than average proportion of set piece goals feels right, because RSL plays a fairly conservative style, which works to limit their exposure, but also somewhat limits their attack. They're not a team to commit a huge number of players to the attack all at once, especially not since losing Javier Morales.

Their play in the game against the Philadelphia Union provided excellent examples of this dynamic at work. While RSL passed the ball around fairly well, and got some opportunities, their attack didn't look especially threatening. That was largely irrelevant, however, because of two really well executed corners by Kyle Beckerman, who has stepped up to fill Morales' kick-taker role. The first was a short corner to Paulo Jr. He immediately played the ball back to Beckerman, who then took the ball around to the front of the penalty area and found a couple of free yards to rifle a shot in from about 20 yards. The second was a well placed corner to Chris Schuler, who had come up from defense.

That match was at home for RSL and they can be expected to be even more conservative at CenturyLink. For the Sounders, this will likely require even more emphasis than usual on set pieces on both defense and offense. My feeling is that Saturday's match is likely to be a low scoring affair and it's not hard to imagine that a well placed kick over a wall or a well taken corner will be the difference.

Thursday Tactics 'n' Things - Strategy and Identity

CarlosT — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 23:50:49 -0000

I'm hoping that this can be a regular series where we can have some discussions about how the game is played, especially the tactical/strategic side of things. In the future I'll be taking a look at the tactics of upcoming opponents, tactical implications of Sounders transfer and roster moves, and any related topics you guys want to hear about.

To kick off, I want to talk about what I think tactics mean and the related issues of strategy and identity.

When most people hear the word tactics in the context of soccer, thoughts run immediately to formation. While this is an important component, this is just a small part of the story. Even if all formations other than 4-4-2 suddenly, magically disappeared, there would be huge variation in the way that teams played. One team might have a very aggressively attacking version, taking defensive risks by frequently adding defenders to the attack. Another team might take the completely opposite approach and commit only a striker or midfielder or two to offense, while using the bulk of the team to shut down the opposition. And of course, there are many positions between these extremes. Obviously, the real world does include all the different formations, and so the range of tactical options is huge, and selecting the right one for the situation is the central responsibility of a coach.

A less discussed but just as fundamental aspect is strategy and identity. Whereas tactics are the immediate on-field plans thought up by a coach and executed (or not) by the players, strategy is the long-term, off-field thinking headed by the front office and executed by the organization. This includes what kind of players will be acquired under what kind of contracts, which coach to hire and when to let him go, and so on and so forth. Ideally, these strategic decisions will lead to the building on an identity.

Gary Kleiban at the excellent 3Four3 blog discussed this issue after the Champions' League final in May. For him, one of the keys to Barcelona's victory was their established identity and coherent style of play that has been maintained and built upon year after year. Coaches are selected with this identity in mind and they act to transmit and reinforce it throughout the team. Barcelona knows exactly what kind of player they need to play their style, and any incoming player knows exactly where they fit into that scheme. This makes a much higher level of play possible, one where players can almost share one mind and tactical execution and coordination happen freely and naturally.

This sort of identity is achieved by few teams, but those that do are the ones that consistently perform year to year, and rack up the silverware. Since the building of an identity is a process that takes a long time, it's no surprise the Sounders aren't there yet, but I see signs that they're working towards it.

The strongest of these is their attitude towards youth and development. The Sounders clearly see themselves becoming a club where players grow into their peak. They have bought into the academy system in a big way and as Dizzo noted, they're at the forefront of the evolution of the DP from aging superstars to up-and-comers launching exciting careers. Even the signings of O'Brian White and Amadou Sanyang fit into this vision, as examples of the Sounders betting they can build up young players who have struggled elsewhere.

If the Sounders fully integrate this concept into all levels of the organization, it will become self-reinforcing and drive many decisions. Coaches will be evaluated on their management not only of the first team, but their leadership of the Academy staff. The FO will make ever greater investments in scouting for both youth prospects and rising young professionals. Tactical philosophies will be developed to take advantage of the attributes of young players.

Building an enduring identity will require answering many fundamental philosophical questions and then committing the entire club to those decisions. If they can do that effectively, the front office will succeed in making the Sounders a world-class team for years to come.

Sounders Summer Break: Playoff Expectations

CarlosT — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 02:50:29 -0000

Dave recently discussed where we can expect the Sounders to end up at the end of the regular season. I'd like to take the next step and look at what the playoff match-ups would be and how that would affect Kasey's chances of lifting the Cup in LA.

The table in Dave's post contained three different ways of looking at where a team will end up: points per match (PPM), Graham's formula applied to a whole season's slate of games (x34), and Graham's formula applied to each team's remaining games (xFinish).

The Scenarios

PPM

If PPM is to be believed, this will be the playoffs:

Western Conference Qualifiers
Los Angeles Galaxy - SS
Real Salt Lake
FC Dallas

Eastern Conference Qualifiers
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
New York Red Bulls

Wild Cards
Seattle Sounders FC
Colorado Rapids
DC United
San Jose Earthquakes

This would be an interesting scenario for the Sounders. As the top wild card they would play at home in their one-match play in against the Earthquakes. Also, if they won, they'd be the top surviving wild card, meaning that the other surviving wild card would face the Supporters' Shield winner. In all the scenarios, the Supporters' Shield winner is a Western team, meaning that if the Sounders advanced to the first round, they would go into the East and face Philadelphia home and away. Considering that the last two MLS Cup champions have been Western teams that crossed into the Eastern bracket, history would seem to be on the Sounders' side in this scenario. Particularly encouraging, in light of recent history, is that in this scenario the Sounders could only face the Galaxy in the Final.

x34

The x34 method says these would be the playoffs:

Western Conference Qualifiers
Real Salt Lake - SS
Los Angeles Galaxy
Seattle Sounders FC

Eastern Conference Qualifiers
New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew

Wild Cards
FC Dallas
Chivas USA
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes

This scenario highlights the perversity of the MLS. Here we have the Sounders finishing one spot higher, but facing a much more difficult road to the Final. In this scenario, they'd face the LA Galaxy in the first round of the playoffs for the second straight year. Given the issues the Sounders have had facing the full strength Galaxy, I'd imagine that this would be a scenario that Sigi would just as soon not face.

xFinish

Finally, xFinish's version of the playoffs:

Western Conference Qualifiers
Los Angeles Galaxy - SS
Real Salt Lake
FC Dallas

Eastern Conference Qualifiers
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
Columbus Crew

Wild Cards
Seattle Sounders FC
Colorado Rapids
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo

Very similar to the first scenario from the Sounders' perspective, except that they'd take on Houston instead of the Earthquakes. The logic is the same though: as the top wild card, their route through the playoffs would be Eastward, which could very well play in their favor.

The Bottom Line

Sports Club Stats has our playoff odds at 99.8%, which is obviously a good place to be. But all indications point to MLS continuing to be a textbook example of perverse incentives. In particular, as long as the Supporters' Shield winner is a Western team, the best spot for a Western division team to be is the top of the wild card heap. In the Sounders' case specifically, the top three Eastern teams are teams we've had success against in the past, and would certainly be more comfortable psychologically than yet another match up against the Galaxy.

W-L-T Considered Harmful

CarlosT — Mon, 02 Aug 2010 07:20:26 -0000

Something that's always annoyed me about soccer coverage in the US is the fact that records are listed in W-L-T order. I find it irksome because within the context of soccer, there's no logical reason for this: it orders the points 3-0-1, which is just bizarre. Of course the reason has nothing at all to do with soccer. The other sports that fill the other 90% of the sports pages (if you're very lucky and get that much soccer coverage) don't allow draws in normal circumstances, and so usually list their records as W-L. In the extremely rare circumstances that a draw or two actually happen during a season, that gets tacked on to the end, to make it W-L-T. Because that's what most American readers are expecting, that format ends up winning out over the more sensible W-D-L.

However, I've recently realized that there's a bigger problem than just cognitive dissonance. W-L-T completely misrepresents the competition. And before anyone gets overheated, W-D-L does as well, as would D-L-W, D-W-L, L-W-D, or L-D-W. This is because no team in MLS is competing on its record.

That sounds strange, doesn't it? Here in the US, your record is your season. Each team rises or falls as each win or loss accumulates and when the end of the season comes around, the records are used to determine who gets into the playoffs. So, it's only natural that a team's win-loss record enters very early on in the conversation, and writers, fans, players, and coaches all talk in terms of records.

The conversations about MLS are no different, but they should be. There are twelve factors that are used to determine which teams make the playoffs and which don't: one primary criterion and eleven tie-breakers. Unlike other sports league here in the US, a team's record isn't that primary criterion and it's not even the first tie-breaker. In fact, in the tiebreakers, a team's record sits... nowhere.

The primary criterion is points. This is obviously related to, and can be calculated from, the team's record. But why not talk about the actual criterion? One could also report the result of a match as Sounders SOG: 9 Saves: 0, Houston SOG: 0 Saves 7. The information to get us to the actual criterion, goals, is there and it's not a difficult calculation, but why waste time with it? Why not just start in the right place to begin with? I know this may not be a perfect analogy because I think there are times when a team might give up a goal and the SOG and saves wouldn't show it, (maybe own goals?) but you get the idea.

By the way, the points calculation is why soccer reporting anywhere else on the planet lists records, when they do so, as W-D-L. It makes the mental operation of totaling up points very easy:
"First number times three, then add in the second number."
The W-L-T format is more awkward:
"First number times three, ignore the central number, add in the third number."
This is especially true if one follows other leagues, because it becomes something along the lines of:
"First number times three, add in the second number, get a nonsensical result, remember that records in the US are listed in that weird way, remember or recalculate the first number times three, ignore the second number, add in the third number"
The first tiebreaker between two teams is the head-to-head record between them, and between three or more teams, the points-per-game against the others. Those games contributed to a team's record, but knowing the overall numbers won't help you discover what happened in a few specific matches.
The second tie-breaker is goal difference. A team's record is no help there either.
Third is total goals, and again, W-L-T is completely unhelpful.
Fourth through sixth are the first three tie-breakers applied to road games only.
Seventh through ninth are the first three tie-breakers applied to home games only.
Tenth is the team's disciplinary record. The team with the lowest total of disciplinary points goes through. Again, not in a team's record.
A coin flip. Yep, if the teams are still level after all those considerations, then heads or tails determines who goes to the playoffs. Surprisingly, knowing how many games a team has won, lost, or tied doesn't tell you how a coin tossed in an MLS office will land. Who knew?

Okay, so we should stop using records, but what do we put in their place? After all, the need for a compact way to depict a team's current situation doesn't go away. There are various ways to go, but any sensible solution will start with points, since that's the foundation of the competition. I'd probably put games played next, because that gives you a context for points. Eight points is a pretty good point total for four games, but pretty horrible for fourteen. This also puts the ingredients for the PPM calculation right up front, and in the right order nonetheless. If we're going to be doing any math on our season-summarizing numbers, let's make it something really useful. We could stop there, but I'd probably toss in goal difference as well. It's not the first tiebreaker, but it is the first one we can know about at any arbitrary point in the season, since there's no way of knowing in advance who will end the season level on points.

Here's an example of how it might work:

The Sounders (28 pts, 20 GP, -2 GD) are hoping to continue their surge in MLS as they visit Chivas USA (18 pts, 18 GP, -3 GD), who surrendered all three points to Toronto in their last game and sit at the bottom of the West.

If this format, or something like it, were adopted widely enough we could eventually drop the labels and it would read something like (28, 20, -2). That wouldn't take much more room than listing a record. Unlike listing a record, however, we'd be passing along actually relevant information.

Is it Time to Flip Our Priorities?

CarlosT — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 03:23:00 -0000

Given the sorry state of play currently from the Sounders, and the quite likely scenario that we won't make the playoffs this year, I'd like to propose that we adopt a different approach to the season than is the standard MLS template.

Normally, highest priority is given to MLS matches, while other competitions, even the Champions League, are the province of second stringers and youth players. Because this season has been so screwy already, I say the Sounders should embrace the wacky and flip the script 180 degrees.

As of the moment, the Sounders are second-to-last in the Western conference, and 11th overall. As Dave noted, even a huge improvement to a 50 percent win rate might not be enough to boost us into the playoffs. In these circumstances, MLS teams would continue to try to grind out results, and hope that several teams above them slip up enough for them to climb the ladder into that final playoff spot. Sometimes it works out and once you're in that crapshoot, anything can and has happened.

Every year, though, teams work and work to move up and succeed only in grabbing ninth or 10th. And there's no worse finishing position in MLS than ninth. Not only have you missed the playoffs, you've also probably missed out on the difference makers in next year's draft. It's especially bad this year because ninth lands you in the 10th draft spot instead of the eighth you would have gotten without expansion.

So I say forget trying to climb the MLS ladder. Let the kids run around in MLS, with just enough veteran rotation to keep them match fit, and put out all the big guns out there for the USOC and the Champions League. If the kids get wiped out in league play, all the better, because that means the Sounders will rise in next year's draft. Plus, all the extra minutes would serve to sharpen and develop their skills, which would be an investment for future seasons.

Meanwhile, our best players can come out and try to get us some silverware. This would probably be especially effective in the USOC, because the MLS teams that we would be facing later on would be following the normal script and prioritizing league play, and therefore putting their second teams out there. The Champions League would still be a hard slog, but we'd be giving ourselves our best chance.

Clearly, this would an extremely controversial decision. Loyal season-ticket holders would be seeing a lot of the second stringers and maybe a lot of losing. At the same time, a couple of unlucky bounces and we could end up crashing out early in the Cups, and have absolutely nothing to show for this season. Obviously, this would also be unthinkable in most leagues, because relegation is awaiting the bottom teams, not high draft picks. MLS is emphatically not one of those leagues though, and I think it's time for some out of the box thinking. It's a risky move, but nothing worthwhile is accomplished without risk.

Portland - Sounders: Game Thread

CarlosT — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 02:09:54 -0000

Sorry for the late post, but technical issues and what not. The Sounders are down south of the Columbia tonight to start their campaign for the the US Open Cup, probably the only title that's still a realistic possibility. As always in the USOC, it's do or die, and the Sounders really need to bring their best, because the Timbers will not be rolling over. Normally, the Sounders would be favored in the matchup, but the way they've been playing recently, I have to say they're underdogs to pretty much anybody.

The lineups on the Reference Card is a best guess. Consider this your game thread.

Groups G and H: Sticking to the Script

CarlosT — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 03:05:50 -0000

The group stage ended today with Groups G and H playing their final matches. And in the end, everything ended up pretty much like everybody thought it would.

Group G: Considered this Cup's Group of Death, this group yielded no surprises, as the participants lined up in rank order at the finish. Brazil's top finish means they end up on the opposite side of the bracket from Argentina, Germany, England, Spain and Portugual, leaving a match against any of those teams to the Final.

North Korea
Clearly the minnows in the group, they put up a great defensive effort against in the loss to Brazil. The implosion against Portugal put them out of the Cup with a match to spare and gave the Ivorians a giant mountain to climb. Their zero points, -11 goal difference means they get the honor of being the worst team in this World Cup.
Ivory Coast
Scored three against North Korea, but it didn't matter, because they could only reach four points, falling short of the five that took Portugal into second place.
Portugal
Were pretty much guaranteed to progress, and only the most unlikely of scenarios could have kept them out of the next round. A win would have had them topping the group, but their counterattacking game plan against Brazil was good for a draw and nothing more. It also made for an extremely frustrating final group match.
Brazil
Struggled to get through the massed Portuguese defense with Kaká serving his unjust suspension, and Robinho and Elano both being saved for the next round. Brazil has been a slow starter in past Cups, and I get the feeling that there's more there. Of course, the last four matches are much more important than the last three, so we will have to see if Brazil can peak at the right time.

Group H: This group also played out according to rank, but Spain's blunder against Switzerland gave the group a little additional intrigue. Switzerland's failure to get full points against Honduras meant that we avoided a three-way tie at six points. Nkufo is now free to join the Sounders, but his Switzerland was extremely close. With today's result in the Spain-Chile match, a two goal victory would have put them second and a three goal victory would have put them first.

Honduras
As the third qualifiers out of CONCACAF, Honduras were always considered a long shot, and so it proved.
Switzerland
As mentioned, had they won by multiple goals today, they could have booked themselves a pass to the second round, and maybe even group leadership. Unfortunately for them, they'll only be booking vacations.
Chile
The draw in the other match meant that Chile's defeat against Spain wasn't fatal, as they were able to hold on to second. Next up is a very familiar foe in Brazil, and one that has really hurt Chile in the past. But the first step in winning the World Cup is getting through the group stages and Chile can check that item of their list.
Spain
Ended up where they were expected to be, but risked going the way of Italy if they didn't perform in the last match. Some suicidal goalkeeping gave them their opening, and they can look forward to a tough contest against their Iberian neighbors.

Groups E and F: Quick Review

CarlosT — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 02:30:57 -0000

I've been trying to write these as previews before the last group stage matches, but obviously I didn't make it for this one. So, here's a quick wrap-up of how these groups shook out.

Group E: Not quite the Group of Death this year, but one that produced a good quality matches. Here's a quick review of the teams from worst to best.

Cameroon
Already eliminated and playing for pride only against the already qualified Dutch, Eto'o and his compatriots are going home without claiming a single point. In the end, the game comes down to getting the ball to cross the line, and Cameroon only managed that twice. They join the hosts, Nigeria, and Algeria in the club of African teams that couldn't take advantage of playing on the home continent. Only Ivory Coast has any chance of joining Ghana in the second round, and they need a couple of miracles to pull it off.
Denmark
Did well to come back against Cameroon, but weren't up to the task against Japan, who were particularly inspired in that final match. Nothing much to say beyond that.
Japan
Fell to the Netherlands, like everyone else in the group, but improved steadily. Their win over Denmark was built on superbly taken free kicks, and Paraguay will have to be extremely careful about fouling near the penalty area. Keisuke Honda in particular is extremely dangerous, and notched a beautiful free-kick goal, and a crafty assist against the Danes.
Netherlands
The Netherlands were efficient and effective. Three matches, three wins, five goals for, one against. Not the flashiest numbers in the Cup so far, but then this group didn't have any punching bags. Cameroon may not have been able to get a point, but no team was able to walk over them, and their rivals' victories over them were hard earned. Netherlands next faces Slovakia, and one would have to give the Oranje a great chance of making the quarterfinals.

Group F: what can you say? This group feature two big surprises, and they're the teams that didn't qualify. This kind of thing is why they play the games and why the World Cup is so great.

Italy
After France, one of the giant surprises of the tournament. Four times champions and one of the teams that is always on the list of favorites to take the Cup, Italy crashed and burned without managing a single victory. Italy actually came into the last match in the group with a chance of winning it, with something less of a win from Paraguay and a solid victory over Slovakia with enough goals to overtake the South Americans on goal difference. Even a draw might have been enough, as long as the Kiwis lost or drew with fewer goals. Alas, while New Zealand helped by drawing nil all with Paraguay, the Italians fell into disarray and gave up three goals before clawing back two. Too little, too late, and they were gone.
New Zealand
Didn't make it through, but most people will consider them as having overperformed on their undefeated, though also winless, run. Something to build on for the future in a country where soccer takes a seat several rows behind rugby.
Slovakia
Not hugely impressive in their first two matches, but turned it on when it counted against Italy. I have my doubts about them against the Netherlands, but that's for the future. For now, they can bask in the glow of getting through the group stage.
Paraguay
Like the USA, Paraguay took the top of the group partly on the because the titan had feet of lead. Even so, winning the group is winning the group and their reward is taking on the Japanese instead of the Dutch. It is probably a preferable match up, but as they just demonstrated against Denmark, the Japanese are armed and dangerous. It looks like Paraguay will have to bring its best game in order to reach the quarterfinals.

Now that Groups E and F are done, Friday sees the end of the group stage as Groups G and H finish up. The Lusophones look to have Group G sewn up, with Ivory Coast needing a victory and a minor miracle to overturn the Portuguese's nine goal advantage over them. In Group H, all teams still have an arithmetic chance, with Chile, Spain, and Switzerland all with realistic chances of making it through, and Honduras with an outsider but still possible if all the results go the right way.

Groups C and D: Controversy and Confusion

CarlosT — Sun, 20 Jun 2010 16:50:29 -0000

These groups are definitely not going as expected. Before the cup, conventional wisdom held this group as a contest between US and England for first and second with Algeria and Slovenia as sacrificial lambs. Well, luck and the referee's whistle have shattered that view and it's altogether possible that neither of the favored teams get through. Detailed scenarios have been done already elsewhere so here's the short version:

Group C:

Algeria
The North Africans need to win and hope that England doesn't beat Slovenia. A victory would raise Algeria to four points while a draw would leave England on three and a loss would leave them on two.
The US and England
A loss is obviously fatal to both these teams, but the US is the beneficiary of most of the draw scenarios. The only way that the US loses out if both of the last group games end in draws is if the England-Slovenia match is a high-scoring draw that overcomes the Americans' advantage in goals scored. Victory for either of these teams could mean group leadership, depending on the results of the other match.
Slovenia
Straightforward: A victory means the second round and group leadership. A draw would guarantee passage to the second round, but not necessarily the group lead. Even a loss isn't necessarily fatal, depending on the result of the other match.

The reward for topping Group C was expected to be avoiding Germany in the second round, but with Group D wide open, we don't know who, if anyone, will take on the three-time champions.

Australia
Their draw with Ghana gives them a lifeline, and they are not yet mathematically eliminated. They are going to need a victory over Serbia and a Ghanaian victory over Germany. This minor miracle would be be even more shocking because it would mean the elimination of the Germans.
Serbia
A win over Australia would secure them their place in the second round, and could make them top of the group, if the other match ends in a draw or the Serbs blowout the Australians and the Germans win narrowly over Ghana, in such a way to cancel out Germany's advantage in goal difference. If Germany and Serbia end up tied on points, goal difference, and goals scored, the Serbs come out on top because of their victory in the head-to-head.
Germany
Looked like they would stroll through the group after annihilating Australia 4-0. But that unexpected loss to Serbia has shaken up the group and Germany could find itself on the outside, wondering where it all went wrong. A victory over Ghana is the surest way to avoid that nightmare scenario, and it might be enough to restore them to the top of the group where everyone expected them to be. They would need a loss or draw by Serbia, or at least a margin of victory in the two matches that preserved the German's lead in goal difference. The Germans could even survive a draw, depending on the result of the other match.
Ghana
The surprise leaders after two matches, Ghana is the African team with the best chance of making the next stage. Obviously victory would secure them their place as group leaders, but they could survive even with a draw or a loss. If the Australians secured a narrow victory over the Serbs and the Ghanaians narrowly lost to Germany, the Black Stars could advance on goal difference.

So that's the crazy world of Groups C and D, two groups that started out with some clear favorites, favorites who have since stumbled (or been tripped, in the case of the US). Nothing is guaranteed and any of the eight teams has at least a theoretical chance at making it. Which four teams advance to face one another in the next round could swing wildly with each goal. Which is exactly the kind of drama that makes the World Cup great.

Groups A and B Take Shape

CarlosT — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 01:07:32 -0000

Group A: Mexico's 2-0 victory over France today has made Group A almost come into focus. At the moment, at least one of Uruguay and Mexico will go on to the next stage,. France and the hosts, South Africa, are not yet mathematically eliminated, but will need a favorable result from the Uruguay-Mexico match. Here are the scenarios for each from toughest to easiest:

South Africa
Giving up the third goal against Uruguay might have been the fatal stroke for the Bafana Bafana. Without it, they'd be even with France on points and goal difference, but ahead of them in goals scored. As it stands, with their -3 goal difference, South Africa needs to beat France and hope that someone wins the Uruguay-Mexico match, and furthermore, hope that the goals total from both those matches reverses their goal deficit. A tall order, but US fans in particular know that it can happen.
France
In a similar, but slightly better position than South Africa. They also need a blowout in both matches, but with one less goal to make up. Domenech's reign as coach is set to end after this World Cup as he makes way for Laurent Blanc, and after this performance I'm sure many will be glad to see him go.
Mexico and Uruguay
Have the luxury of being able to lose and still get through, as long as the goal difference isn't huge between both matches. A draw of any kind will see both teams into the next round, but there's still a lot to play for, because finishing position will determine who plays who in Group B.

Speaking of which, Group B: Argentina's thrashing of South Korea has put them solidly in pole position for first place, which means that fight for the top spot in Group A is a fight to avoid facing Messi and Co. At the same time, it's also possible that they could be eliminated. Scenarios, again from hardest to easiest:

Nigeria
With zero points and a -2 goal difference, one might think that Nigeria has no chance, but the truth is there's a sliver of hope. To begin with, Greece is Argentina's next target, and Nigeria will hope the South Americans continue their winning ways. Additionally, in Nigeria's final match against South Korea, they'll be looking for as big a victory as possible to buff up their goal difference and goals scored. Anything less than outright victory and the Super Eagles will go home.
Greece
A draw could be enough for them, if Nigeria beats South Korea, as it would give them four points, with Korea and Nigeria remaining at three. They could even stand to lose, if Nigeria beat South Korea by exactly one more goal than Greece gives up. At the same time, victory might not be enough, because a victory by South Korea would put them equal on points, but Greece would have to make up a deficit in goals scored and are the losers in head-to-head. On the other side of things, a Greek victory could even threaten Argentina's hold on first place or even qualification, if it were by at least three goals. In other words, it's both complicated and simple for Greece: complicated because of the scenarios and the fact they're facing Argentina, and simple because all they can do is play their match and try to score as many goals as possible.
South Korea
Basically in the same boat as Greece, but with a slight edge because of their goals scored and the fact they hold the head-to-head over the Greeks. Like the Greeks, a big enough victory could give them first, if the Argentina-Greece match goes the right way.
Argentina
A draw or a win will guarantee their status as group winners and that's what their target will be. They could get through with a loss and the proper result from the other game, but they'll be looking to build on their performance against the South Koreans. As mentioned before, they could also crash out with a major loss and a big victory for South Korea in the other match, but I don't rate that as likely to happen.

Quick Review: Sharpshooting Sounders Crush the Revolution

CarlosT — Sun, 06 Jun 2010 05:19:13 -0000

This was the game that Sounders players and coaches have been talking about having for a while now. Like is the usual Sounders way, lots of chances were created, but the big difference tonight was that shots were put on frame. Tonight the Sounders put eight on target, twice their total for the last two MLS matches combined. That combined with a solid defensive performance that effectively took Shalrie Joseph out of the game allowed the Rave Green to grab all three points and take a big step toward righting the ship.

The Sounders were probably helped somewhat by the fact that the Revs were forced to play Shuttleworth in the absence of Reis and Burpo, and he definitely had the look of a third stringer, especially on the third goal. But the Sounders looked like the better team on all areas of the field and the other two goals would likely have beaten any keeper in the league.

Taking Dave's Keys to the Game in reverse order:

Stopping Shalrie Joseph
Big check here. There were long stretches where Joseph was invisible and he only looked dangerous once or twice. At lot of this was done by Ianni in the midfield, and I think Ianni is really showing his versatility in deputizing for Alonzo.
Set Plays
Another check here. Even though the Sounders didn't score from any set plays, they were very organized and balls were cleared out of the penalty area with dispatch. Obviously there are still things to work on, such as getting the ball in the net from a corner, but this was a solid performance to build from.
Breaking the Bunker
And check. This effort was helped immensely by Leo's early goal, which forced the Revs to chase the game, thereby opening up space for the Sounders to exploit. As they demonstrated against Boca, giving the Sounders room is a very dangerous thing.

Scoring Summary:

SEA - Leo Gonzalez (Zakuani) - 5
SEA - Steve Zakuani (Evans, Montero) - 24
SEA - Fredy Montero (Noonan, Gonzalez) - 42

Seattle Sounders: Kasey Keller, James Riley, Jeff Parke, Tyrone Marshall, Leo Gonzalez (Taylor Graham), Freddie Ljungberg (Sanna Nyassi), Patrick Ianni, Brad Evans, Steve Zakuani, Pat Noonan (Roger Levesque), Fredy Montero

SHOTS: 19, SHOTS ON GOAL: 8, OFFSIDES: 5, CORNER KICKS: 10, FOULS: 13, SAVES: 1.

New England Revolution: Bobby Shuttleworth, Kevin Alston, Cory Gibbs, Chris Tierney, Sainey Nyassi (Zak Boggs), Pat Phelan (Emmanuel Osei), Shalrie Joseph, Kenny Mansally (Edgaras Jankauskas), Joseph Niouky, Zack Schilawski, Marko Perovic

SHOTS: 2, SHOTS ON GOAL: 1, OFFSIDES: 2, CORNER KICKS: 4, FOULS: 11, SAVES 5.

Quotes after jump.

Sigi Schmid - Sounders FC Head Coach

(Opening Statement...) "It's one of those games again. I see we outshot them 19-2, so again we created chances but they didn't...oh, I can change the story. I got used to saying the same thing all the time. No, it was nice to get some goals, tremendous first goal by Leo Gonzalez - that was a wonder strike, a tremendous strike on goal. Zakuani as well, a very well hit ball. Montero a good combination that put him in. I thought the soccer we played was good. I thought playing out of a 4-4-2 we were more dangerous having a partner up front. I thought Freddie Ljungberg wide right was outstanding, creating numerous opportunities for us. As we get used to him there as well, it will make it easier for us to get him the ball more often in better positions. I was just pleased with our effort. The theme today was we wanted to play like there's no tomorrow and we came out in the first half and we played that way so I'm very pleased with how we did."

(On what the win does for mentality...) "It does a lot. Obviously because we put a lot on our plate with these last two games at home. We've got DC coming in on Thursday we wanted to get our record to .500 before we go on the break. We want to make this a tough place for teams to play. I think we made it that way tonight so it does a lot for our spirit, it does a lot for our confidence, it just does an awful lot for the morale and it was good to win and score some fine goals."

(On doing things differently with preparation to bolster the offense...) "The only thing we did differently, we switched into a 4-4-2 because we felt by playing a 4-3-3, only having one striker in the middle and that often times being Montero, that we just didn't have enough of a threat there. By going with two strikers there, and I thought Noonan is another one who had an outstanding game tonight, it just gave us a good combination there and when we play like that we're a tough team because you have Zakuani on one flank and Ljungberg on the other, that's going to make you concerned a little bit and then you've got two forwards up front that they can serve the ball to. When balls got put in the box, and now we've got to get better still at finishing those opportunities, but when balls got put in the box we had people there, we had numbers there. Sometimes if we're a little more clever, a little more composed, we'll get even more goals. It was definitely a huge step in the right direction and the change in formation helped us the most."

(On New England goalkeeper situation...) "We talked about it, let's test him early, let's make sure we hit shots on goal, let's put crosses on top of him early, let's see what he's got and certainly the guys did that. Again, I don't think he can do much on the first goal. I don't think he can do much on the second goal and the third goal, obviously I'm sure he'd like to have another shot at that one. I thought overall we did a good job of testing him early."

(On the starting lineup . . .) "I don't see why not, unless somebody gets hurt. Obviously, being able to play the same group together helps as well because you get familiarity with each other, you sort of know where each other is. The main thing is everybody did their role tonight, everybody played their role. The defensive midfielder Ianni did a good job on Shalrie Joseph. You really didn't see Shalrie much during the game. He took care of that. Evans took care of a little more of the offensive part. The wingers took care of their part. The defenders took care of their part. I thought Parke was much better than he was in Colorado. He was sharper and quicker tonight, so all of those were plus steps for us."

(On wearing the same shirt Thursday...) "Yeah, I'm just debating right now if I want to launder it or not, as to which way is the best way to go with that. I always tell my wife, I know when it's going well it's because I'm not cold. If I'm really into the game I'm not cold, so it's like the guys at halftime, they said, do you need a jacket for the second half? I said, no, it's not cold out there."

(On coach John Wooden's death...) "Tremendous memories from the standpoint as a student there I had some friends who were on the basketball team and I used to watch practice all the time. Seeing him work, seeing the way he always tried to bring the best out of each individual and by bringing the best out of each individual, that made them a great team. His calmness, his decorum having met him, spoken to him, just his overall demeanor, his outlook on life is tremendous. I think we've lost a very unique and a very special person. I've gotten emails from teammates of mine who were there at the same time and everybody is expressing how much they appreciated him. A lot of guys have the Pyramid of Success in their offices signed by him. It's a huge loss, but we were very fortunate to have him here for 99-plus years. He's a very, very special person and UCLA and sports are going to miss him."

(On something extra to be had from tonight...) "No, that we played good attacking soccer, which we always want to do. We want to be an entertaining team that we're able to win at home and now it's a matter of hey, let's continue to refine what we're doing, get to know each other better in this system of play and even finish off more opportunities. It was nice to break out and get three goals. We don't want to be the lowest scoring team in the league. We want to get out of that."

(On how the team played with a three-goal lead...) "I thought they played all right. We talked at halftime about making sure we maintain the same mentality, that we went out in the second-half with the same mentality and that didn't think that okay, it's easy. I thought we did, even at the start of the second-half we went right after them. We created some chances and obviously sometimes you get greedy and you want to get the fourth or fifth but I'm not going to be greedy right now Three is enough for tonight. I'd like to save some so we get two or three on Thursday."

(On Gonzalez getting forward more...) "That was funny because before the game we said to him, you've got a tough guy with speed in Nyassi, make sure you defend him, and if you can get forward once in awhile great, but don't worry about that. Obviously he proved me wrong, five minutes and getting forward and hammering the shot in. I think his ability to get forward was set up by defending Nyassi very well. Maybe it's because he goes against Sanna every day in practice so he had a good idea of what's coming. He deals with quick players pretty well, and he would steal balls and that would put him into the offensive part of the field - that allowed him to get forward because he defended really well."

(On playing more direct than previous...) "We talked about it early in the game. We wanted to make sure we could get our crowd behind us, even to the extent of saying on the kick-off we wanted to put the ball behind them. We talked about making sure that we get behind the defense a little more often, a little quicker, make them play in their end of the field and that would help us in terms of getting our crowd and putting the pressure on them and turning this into a home field."

Leo Gonzalez - Sounders FC Defender

(On going forward on offense . . .) "Indeed, it was the guidance from the management staff [to not go forward], but the opportunity showed up. I managed to go to offense and thank God I managed to score."

(On thoughts on goal . . .) "Before talking about the goal, I want to dedicate this to our friends, guys like [Jhon Kennedy] Hurtado and [Michael] Fucito, who are out with injury. Thank God. Again, it was a beautiful goal and gave us the confidence for the remainder of the game."

(On taking the shot . . .) "It was a matter of getting the confidence to kick and a little bit of luck as well. So thank God, it was a good goal."

Kasey Keller - Sounders FC Goalkeeper

(On the game . . .) "I'm just happy. I'm happy for everybody. I'm happy obviously for the fans and ownership and the players because this is what we have been working hard to turn. We know we have got another game on Thursday and, although we are going to enjoy ourselves, fans are going to enjoy themselves and everything. But we can't do this halfway. We know we have another game on Thursday that we are more than capable of winning as well. What a great way to go into the mini-break with six points. So it's halftime for me. Second half starts against D.C. [United]."

(On keeping clean sheet . . .) "I, for one, after we scored the third goal, I wanted to make sure we did all the little things right to keep the clean sheet in the back because that's very important for us right now. We conceded some goals late in games. We lost our concentration. I didn't want to have that negative thought process go into our head after this game. I wanted everybody to come out of this game knowing we got an unbelievable goal from Leo, great goal from Zakuani, Fredy did his thing - popped up, banged it. Then to have the defense have that confidence as well knowing they had nothing to lose. They are going to push guys forward and challenge for things and we were going to keep that zero at the back. This is hopefully a large, large step towards a lot of better things coming."

Steve Zakuani - Sounders FC Midfielder

(On the game . . .) "It was important. I think the three points was the most important thing because we had to win. I think I said on Tuesday that it was the most important game of our Sounders career so far because we had to win. We just had to win. We have been saying for awhile that there would be a game where we are going to break out and tonight happened to be that night. I think even more than just the result the performance was fantastic. It was great interplay, great opportunities. It was a good result, good to get the fans that and it sets up very well for D.C. on Thursday."

(On scoring second goal . . .) "It was very important. I think it came from our defensive effort first. We went into the game not letting them settle. We were on them from the first whistle. You could see guys were making tackles, guys were hustling. From that, you end up getting possession and the passing was very clean, very efficient. Sometimes it takes a special goal and Leo gave us that. Once he did that, we kind of settled and we were open."

Steve Nicol - Revolution Head Coach

(On coming back down three to nil...) "The first two goals were just window strikes, at the same time we didn't defend well. It is just school boy stuff; you don't let a man behind you on a throw in. We were sleeping and let a guy get to the edge of the box. It was a great finish but we were contributing to our own downfall. It is tough to come back from that. The third goal is just down right bad defending."

(On his speech to the team at halftime...) "I probably couldn't repeat it. We came out and played better. We played so bad in the first half we would have had to come out better. There is nothing we can take away from this game that is positive."

(On going into the break of the season...) "It is disappointing. We need to sit down with what we are doing and figure out how we are going to get results."

Bobby Shuttleworth - Revolution Goalkeeper

(On playing in his first MLS game tonight...) "We didn't get the result we wanted, I don't think we played very well. We just have to keep moving on and put this behind us right away."

(On the difficulty of playing in front of 35,000 screaming fans...) "I just tried to keep playing my game. Once the whistle blows the crowd is not an issue for me so I just tried to stay solid and help these guys out as much as I could."

(On having a rough first start to his career...) "It was my first MLS start, it was good to get it out of the way and we can keep progressing and picking up some points."

(On giving up 3 quick goals to start the game...) "It is never good to give up an early goal and they came after us right away. I just have to keep progressing and moving forward."

Kevin Alston - Revolution Defender

(On giving up three quick goals...) "We just can't come out and play that, with three easy quick goals we were chasing them all night."

(On the difficulty of coming back after giving up a few early goals...) "It is very difficult, tough. We are down and away, with the crowd it's just hard to fight back."

MLS Academies: A Step in the Right Direction

CarlosT — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 05:04:03 -0000

Recently, ESPN did a nice story on the burgeoning MLS academies and what it means for the future of MLS and US Soccer. The article is worth a full read, but there are some points I want to highlight:

First, this is the way forward, not fantasizing about "best athletes".
Take a look at the biography of almost every top player and it's the same. Talent is recognized early and trained by full-time professionals, employed by teams who have strong incentives to find and nurture the very best talent they can find, either to add to their first team or to sell on for cash for the organization. The fact that MLS has fully committed to following a similar path is a hugely positive step for US Soccer.
That's not to say there isn't room for improvement.
As it stands, huge swaths of the country are left out of the "catchment" areas that each club retains in a 75-mile radius around its stadium. In fact 32 out of the 52 metro areas with a million or more people fall outside the reach of an MLS club. This is important because each club can retain only two players per youth team from outside that area, and that potentially leaves a lot of players out in the cold.

At the same time, there's a lot of double coverage. Obviously, because they share the Home Depot Center, the Galaxy and Chivas USA also share the exact same catchment area, and therefore might come into conflict about who gets to sign some youngster or other. Similarly, The Philadelphia Union is situated almost exactly between the Red Bulls and DC United, with significant overlaps with both. All the better in my opinion, because an arms race in the development of serious youth programs is one of the best things that could possibly happen for US Soccer. Actually, it's the second best thing. The best thing would be to open the whole country to a free-for-all for all clubs, but socialist tendencies die hard.
Actually, there's something even better than that.
The best thing would be if that free-for-all to produces teams all the way down to age 8. No, I'm not kidding. Lionel Messi was already playing for Newell's Old Boys, a first division club in Rosario, at that age, and most teams around the world have teams starting around then. Here's Inter's youngest team. Those kids were receiving training before they even turned 9 from the club that won the Champions League this year. Will all of them make it to be pros? Of course not, but the ones who make it all the way through the 10 youth teams have a real shot at becoming top level players, having had 10 years of professional coaching.
What about the Sounders?
Joe Roth has said that one of the milestones of success for the Sounders, alongside the standard trophies, will come when an academy product steps out on the field to play with the senior team. Personally, I hope that he remains aggressive about this and pushes the organization to follow up with that goal. I hope that we're very aggressive with our two spots per team that we can fill with players outside our catchment area. A steady pipeline of young, skilled players who will play some of their best years here before moving on for big transfer fees would help make us an extremely strong club consistently, year after year.

The Immortal "Best Athletes" Myth

CarlosT — Sat, 29 May 2010 07:18:03 -0000

It's as predictable as the sunrise or sunset: every World Cup, some American will ask "What if our best athletes played soccer?" This year is no exception and Andrew Sharp and Spencer Hall have stepped forward to make sure SBNation isn't left out of this venerable tradition.

As is the custom, they pick a bunch of football, basketball, and baseball players (and, for variety I suppose, Andy Roddick) and proclaim how much ass they would kick in soccer had they decided to play it professionally. I guess this exercise must be amusing if you follow American sports, otherwise it wouldn't keep coming back over and over like a stubborn fungal infection. The problem, of course, is the question itself is based on faulty premises.

The first highly flawed idea is that athleticism is something you can translate from sport to sport. It just simply isn't. Anyone remember Michael Jordan, baseball superstar? Yeah, me neither. The legendary basketball star just plain sucked at baseball. Furthermore, the particular physical gifts that make a particular athlete great at one sport might hamper him in another. An extreme example would be basketball players and jockeys. Those two kinds of athletes have no overlap at all in the kinds of physical gifts required to be the best. The physical qualities that make for a great basketball player actively make for a crappy jockey and vice versa.

In the case of soccer, height and bulk are useful to an extent, but not nearly to the extent that those attributes are to a football or baseball player. So most American athletes are much, much bigger and heavier than any world-class soccer player. A soccer player runs more than three miles per game, usually a lot more, and soccer has one of the highest ratios of time spent in active game play to game time of any sport.In a normal game of officially 90 minutes, 60 minutes or more is spent with the ball and players in motion.

This is a big contrast to football, baseball, basketball and tennis where there are plenty of breaks in the action for a player to catch a breather. As one commenter to the original article noted, these guys would have to drop 20 to 80 pounds to sustain all that running, and that would take them out of the mode of what we think of America's "best athletes".

The second flawed premise is the idea that America's soccer players are overmatched physically against the rest of the world. Anyone who's actually looked at the numbers can see that America's soccer players are on a par physically with any team playing in the World Cup. We have the same mix of body types with the same physical characteristics as pretty much every other team. It's a bizarre experience to have this discussion over and over, and to have to point this fact out again and again. Whatever problems the US has, physical size and strength are not among them. This makes all this "best athletes" talk a massive "deck chairs on the Titanic" exercise.

To give a specific example, take last year's Confederations Cup. In the first half, the US jumped out to a two-goal lead on Brazil by playing good soccer and exploiting the spaces left in the back as Brazil pushed their attack. Both of those goals were scored through soccer skills, not by overpowering the opponent. In the second half, Brazil came back to score three goals and in the same way, each of those goals was the result of skilled players applying their skills.

The winning goal in particular, highlights this perfectly. Elano took the corner from the right side and arced a cross to just in front of the front left corner of the six-yard box. Lucio, who was unmarked, needed to take just two short steps to smash in a header. That's not athleticism, that's skill.

The final wrong idea behind this question is the idea that other countries aren't fielding guys like the authors suggested because they don't have them, and that the US would have some insurmountable advantage if we could get these guys to play soccer. In actual fact, other countries do have people like these residing there and the real reason they're not fielding them in their soccer teams is that they'd make bad soccer players.

Brazil, for example, has two-thirds the population of the US and soccer is far and away the most popular and accessible sport in the country. Almost everybody plays a little bit at one point or other, and there are hundreds of professional clubs constantly looking out for talent to develop. It's an environment that produces thousands of professional soccer players, and an environment that's produced some of the best players ever to strike a ball.

Every four years, 23 athletes are selected out of that pool of thousands to represent Brazil in the World Cup. If football, baseball, or basketball body types really were "the best", then that's what you'd see on the Seleção. You don't see that, though, and it's for the very simple reason that those body types aren't particularly helpful in soccer.

Think of the best players in the world and throughout history. Top of my head examples: Maradona is 5'4", Messi is 5'7", Wesley Sneijder is 5'7", Pelé is 5'8". Cruyff, Beckenbauer, Ronaldo the Elder, and Ronaldo the Younger are taller at 5'11", 5'11½, 6'0", and 6'1", respectively. That's a crowd of guys who range from below average to a bit above average on the worldwide height scale. And most of these guys are a lot less bulky than your average professional football, baseball, or basketball player.

In the end, the real question to ask isn't about "best athletes" it's about "best soccer players". And in asking that question, you have to ask why isn't Landon Donovan (5'8") as good as Lionel Messi or Clint Dempsey (6'1") as good as Cristiano Ronaldo. The answers to those questions will show the path to realizing the US's World Cup ambitions.

Spectacularly Bad Idea of the Day: Steal the World Cup from Brazil

CarlosT — Thu, 06 May 2010 04:02:17 -0000

The US has its popularity problems, as the hegemon of the day is wont to have. Heck, the Romans have PR issues to this day and their empire fell 1,534 years ago. In any case, it's just a fact of life that there are people around the world who resent the US, for reasons real or imagined.

Apparently, their numbers are not high enough for Denz over at RSL Soapbox, because today he proposed the most effective thing to make Brazilians hate the US into eternity: take away their chance to host the World Cup.

Even more, what's the rationale behind depriving the people of the world's most passionate soccer nation the joy of hosting the premier event on their soil again after 60 years? It's not fair to ask the poor Brazilians to shoulder the burden in these hard economic times, and the US should extend it's paternal hand to relieve them, because it knows so much better what's good for them than they themselves do.

Brazilians would see such a proposal as personally insulting and the height of arrogance to boot. They would be very quick to point out that Lehman Brothers, Bear Sterns, Goldman Sachs, and the rest of the cabal that demolished the world economy had their headquarters on Wall Street, NY, USA, and not Avenida Paulista, SP, Brasil. The further out conspiracy theorists would probably say that the US wrecked the world economy specifically to set up the theft of the World Cup.

If the US wants to help Brazil, it could start by rebuilding the world economy and then making sure that it doesn't destroy it again. But if we think we're short on enemies, this plan is a surefire way to instantly create 200 million more.

Designated players, take two.

CarlosT — Thu, 15 Apr 2010 04:31:20 -0000

Now that we're in the new era of multiple DPs, I'm renewing my call for MLS to go and get Juninho Pernambucano. Specifically, I'm calling for the Sounders to go and get him. If you don't know who he is, he's this guy (apologies in advance for the music):

Surely it's obvious what one of the best, and maybe the best, free kick takers ever would offer to one of the most fouled teams in MLS? Juninho has scored from over 40 yards away on multiple occasions and is extremely dangerous on anything 35 yards or closer. As you watch him put goal after goal into the net, take a minute to take note of the keepers he's beating. Especially note that Oliver Kahn is left completely flat-footed at 1:09 and the figure desperately flailing at 2:05 is Iker Casillas. Two of the world's best keepers utterly left for dead. Now imagine that guy in Rave Green, standing over a ball while Pat Onstad or Kevin Hartman sweats bullets.

At the moment, Juninho's playing in Qatar for a very reasonable $2 million per year, which puts him pretty much in the middle of the Designated Player salary range. In the past, a player like Juninho was seen as not enough of a name to be a candidate for a DP slot. DPs were supposed to be not only a top player, but a highly recognizable figure as well. Generally speaking, you had one shot with the DP rule, and you wanted that player to make a huge impact both on and off the field.

However, with the new DP rules, that thinking is outdated. Now a team can go out looking for players who best fulfill their needs, regardless of whether they're known or not. Instead of the Beckham Rule, the DP has become the Many Schelottos Rule. Schelotto definitely wasn't a household name before he went to the Crew, but he became one among MLS fans and also helped Columbus pick up two Supporters' Shields and an MLS Cup. With the new DP rules, a team can go out and find two or three Schelottos, players who are at a higher level than MLS, without necessarily being world-renowned. And the Sounders should lead the way by signing Juninho.

This one felt like a loss

CarlosT — Sun, 11 Apr 2010 05:19:10 -0000

One of the things that most perplexes Americans not familiar with soccer is the draw. People are used to there being winners and losers and for them a draw isn't really a "result". Well, as we all know, there are draws and then there are draws. There are times when the ref blowing the whistle with the scores level seems like sweet salvation, when you can savor that point you earned when it could have very well been nothing. Tonight was not one of those nights for us. Tonight was the flip side of the coin, when the point you received seems paltry and tarnished because you know you had three in your hand and you threw two of them away.

The ironic thing, of course, is going into this game, many of us felt that a 2-2 draw in Sandy would have been a good result. Because of the altitude and various other factors, RSL has one of the best home records in the league and in most cases a team coming away with a point would have reason to feel good about themselves. The difference, of course, is that the Sounders had the three points for big chunks of the game, and but for some quite dire corner defense, could be flying home as winners.

There's no reason to panic, of course, because there are still a lot of games left to play and we don't need to finish first in the league, just eighth or better. But Sigi does need to organize his corner and set piece defense, because if we remain as confused and ineffectual as we are now, this will be a very difficult season to watch.

I knew Pete Vagenas was old, but ...

CarlosT — Sat, 27 Mar 2010 06:33:35 -0000

I didn't realize that he was literally medieval. If your program survived the rain, flip to your roster and check out Pete's info:

No.	Name	Pos.	Height	Weight	D.O.B.	Hometown	Last Club
8	Vagenas, Peter	M	5-8	163	02/06/1078	Pasadena, Calif.	UCLA

I immediately take back anything unflattering I've ever said about Vagenas. To paraphrase Yoda, when 932 years old you reach, play this good you will not.

Freddie talks CBA (a bit) at ESPN

CarlosT — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 00:55:56 -0000

Here's his opening paragraph (read the rest here):

Imagine you work at Burger King and you get sacked. Now, you want to get another job at McDonald's, but you're not allowed to unless McDonald's compensates Burger King. It seems absurd, but that's the way certain things work in MLS at the moment. If your team terminates your contract, it still can demand a trade from another club before you can go and play for that other club.

This, of course, would be absurd in a lot of situations, but there are such things as non-compete clauses, so it's not completely unheard of for an employer to attempt to restrict a former employee's employment options. What is unheard of, though, is for that to last into perpetuity. What this paragraph highlights more than anything, however, is the difference between how sports teams operate here in the US versus the rest of the world.

Here in the US, we talk about owners being awarded franchises, but let's think a bit about what that means. A franchise is privately owned and operated, but licensed by a parent company to use its brands, marketing, and other business tools. The owner of the franchise doesn't have as much freedom as he would have if he were operating a stand-alone business, and the parent company can impose various requirements on the way the business is operated. So Freddie's choice of McDonald's and Burger King is apt, except that in the case of a player for an American sports team, it's like being fired from one McDonald's and trying to get hired by another one. (McDonald's may or may not be able to impose the same kind of rules MLS does on its teams; if there are any labor/employment lawyers who'd like to chime in, please do.)

In contrast, teams in most of the world are independent, stand-alone businesses. Man U and Arsenal are not like McDonald's and Burger King, but more like Alex's Pie Shoppe and Arsene's House of Eclairs (yes, I know Ferguson and Wenger are not the owners). While they are regulated, as all businesses are, they have a lot more freedom than the franchisees.

So what are the implications of this difference? The primary one, and the one that drives all the rest, is the fact that because teams elsewhere are independent businesses, it means that anyone can get into the soccer business if they feel like it. If I wanted to start Carlos FC, I'd just have to go and register my team with my FA and take my spot at the bottom of the hierarchy. That allows a proliferation of teams: basically any place with the mildest interest in a team will have one. I did a count the other day of the professional teams in the state of São Paulo, the most populous in Brazil with about 42 million people (about 13.5% more than California's approximately 37 million). The final tally was 105 professional soccer teams over four levels of competition, or 2.5 teams for every million residents. For perspective, there are 276 baseball clubs for the whole US, with a population of over 308 million, or just about 0.9 teams per million people. If the US had baseball teams at the same rate that São Paulo has soccer teams, it would have 770. Rio de Janeiro's rate is even more impressive: 87 teams for about 16 million residents, for a rate of about 5.4 per million. At the carioca rate, the US would have about 1675 baseball teams.

I know that this isn't a hugely significant comparison, but the underlying point is this plethora of teams allows soccer leagues around the world to operate the way they do. That favorite dream of soccer fans, a promotion and relegation system, is as likely in the US as a unicorn-based taxi service, but it's an obvious step in an environment where there are teams everywhere. Likewise, the impact of a club failing is much reduced. One team out of sixteen going under is a huge blow, but when there are dozens and dozens ready to take its place, it's shrug-worthy, if you're not a fan of that team. Finally, the owners of any given team have no formal connection to any other, and in fact, as independent businesses, the teams have to be careful to avoid improper levels of cooperation, lest they run into problems with anti-collusion regulations.

A situation like what's happening with the CBA is literally impossible in most soccer leagues, so it's understandable that Freddie would be perplexed. Obviously, there's no way that sports leagues in the US will abandon their cartel-like ways for a free enterprise system, but it's useful to think about what it means for us fans that the system works the way it does.

Freddie Speaks Up About His Status

CarlosT — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 23:03:49 -0000

Freddie Ljungberg's new post on his blog clarifies exactly what his status is for next season. Unsurprisingly, it's "unclear" and it all depends on whether there's a CBA and if there's a lockout. If there wasn't incentive enough for MLS to resolve this situation quickly, a top team losing a DP to Europe because of the labor instability should provide a bit more. Here's the relevant bit of the post:

During the winter there has been some reports in media about teams in Europe asking for my service, and as a Player it is always an honour when top teams are interested and evidently this shows that MLS these days is a very reputable League.

I have not made any final decision about the spring as a lot depends on the outcome of the new CBA and lockout threat in MLS.

Stay tuned.

A Great Source of Insight on Developing Players

CarlosT — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 09:28:25 -0000

Dave pointed me toward a great blog called 3 Four 3 that I want to highlight, because I think these guys have very much the right idea when it comes to the qualities that make a player great:

This term "elite" is very often abused. In conversations with players, parents, fans, coaches – the soccer community in general – I have heard many label this or that player elite. And many times it actually is a decent player. But elite they are not! Also, it’s amazing how many times the player that was referenced is in reality just one of the bunch.

The issue arises because people, specifically in the US, have the wrong idea of what constitutes elite. Their metrics are just flat out wrong. The most resounding error is focusing on physical attributes. Is he big? Is he strong? Is he fast?

This does not make or break elite status!

What makes or breaks you are two and only two fundamental attributes: Technical Quality and Soccer IQ.

Please read the rest of the post and the blog as a whole, because these guys are showing a kind of thinking that is not found often enough in American soccer. The point that they make in the post referenced above can't be made forcefully enough. What the professional American player is lacking generally is not size, speed, or strength, it's some combination of those two attributes they identify. Think back on the Sounders season, and remember those stretches when it seemed like nobody could string more than four passes together. Remember the possessions that went for nothing because someone couldn't trap the ball or needed too many touches to control the ball. Think back to those times when we couldn't get past a team packed in their own end for ninety minutes. To use their terms, these are failures of technical quality and soccer IQ.

Of course, this is hardly a problem of just the professional level. American soccer suffers from this at all levels from the toddlers on up. I saw a particularly stark example a couple of years ago. A friend of mine, who coached his son's U-12 team, invited me to see them play in a local tournament. We arrived a little early and a girls' match was finishing up. We watched as we waited for the field to open up, and I saw a little girl anticipate and intercept a pass, smoothly dribble around the opponent she had just beaten to the ball, and take off down the field, head up, looking for her teammates. Impressed, I turned to my friend and said, "That number 44 is pretty good," to which he replied, "But she's so small." I really wish I could say I was surprised at his response, but unfortunately that sort of thinking is all too common.

MLS and the Hispanic Market

CarlosT — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 07:57:59 -0000

This week the Wall Street Journal published an article on the efforts American sports organizations are making to attract Hispanic fans. Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic group in the US and their buying power is growing rapidly as well. Included in the article is a brief discussion of how Hispanics figure into MLS' plans:

Many Hispanics hail from countries where soccer -- known there as fútbol -- is a national passion, which Major League Soccer is trying to tap. The U.S. league is sponsoring games featuring Latin American teams in the hope that fans will stick around for U.S. matches the same day.

"For us, the Hispanic market is incredibly important," said MLS commissioner Don Garber.

But catering to "the Hispanic market" is a big challenge for U.S. sports promoters, in part because Latinos here have ties to more than a dozen countries.

Eduardo Carvacho has been navigating the Hispanic market for U.S. soccer teams since 2007. He started out building a fan base for the Columbus Crew in Ohio, where most Hispanics were recent arrivals. To start a "porra," a group of diehard fans who set the tone at the stadium, he relied mostly on personal interactions, like eating tacos with community leaders.

Mr. Carvacho now works for the soccer team in Dallas, a much bigger market with established Hispanic institutions where he can proselytize through businesses such as Fiesta, a Hispanic-food grocery chain that sells FC Dallas tickets.

"You have to customize every single thing," he said of appealing to Hispanic fans, depending on the local community.

It's refreshing to hear such a nuanced view from someone involved in MLS. It's important to realize that "Hispanic" is akin to "European" in the breadth that it encompasses and there are hardly any touchstones that can be relied upon to hold throughout the entire population. Even language can be an issue, if Brazilians are included as Hispanics. This is not at all a settled question, by the way. The Census Bureau holds that Brazilians are not Hispanic, but other organizations do include them in the classification. I personally am ambivalent Hispanic. On the one hand, Hispania used to be all of the Iberian peninsula under the Romans, so the label has some historical accuracy. On the other hand, Portugal has been independent from Spain since the 12th century, so it's a label that's around nine centuries out of date.

In any case, MLS definitely has plans for reaching out to Hispanics. How successful will they be? It is true soccer is generally popular with Hispanics, but that's not the end of the story. Contrary to what many might expect, MLS will have a very difficult time reaching the Hispanic market, more difficult than the other American sports.

To see why this is, we have to consider some of the unique challenges facing American soccer and MLS:

Cultural Differences
For example, while most Hispanic nationalities do favor soccer over all other sports, Cubans are more fond of baseball and generally lukewarm on soccer. Therefore Florida, which at first looks like a great market for soccer because of the large Hispanic population, is actually not so friendly an environment because of the high proportion of Cubans. In fact, it was the teams based in Florida that both folded when MLS contracted after the 2001 season. While there continues to be speculation around the possibility of a Miami team whenever MLS expansion talk picks up, so far no bids have gotten very far.
Divided Loyalties in a Saturated Market
Of those Hispanics who do consider soccer their favorite sport, many of them are already fans of other teams and other leagues. Consider a hypothetical Mexican-American whose family have been fans of Atlas for years. Alongside that allegiance, he may have followed Rafa Marquez to Monaco and now Barcelona. Our hypothetical Hispanic may already have affection for up to three clubs, and maybe the Mexican national team as well. An MLS team has to somehow make its case to become team number five on that list. And if it even succeeds in that difficult task, how much attention will team number five get? I would love to see some research done to see the extent of this phenomenon. That would be a first step in determining how much of the Hispanic market is actually available to MLS.
Aesthetic Preferences
The playing style favored in MLS, a very physical game where skill tends to lose out to brawn, is generally not very appealing to Hispanic soccer fans. They prefer a style with short, precise passing and subtle, skillful ball control are the highlights in a fluid, flowing game. The problem for MLS is that the kind of player that dominates the league right now is just not capable of that kind of play. Switching to a more attractive style of soccer would be a multi-year project requiring a major investment in retooling rosters all around the league.
Quality and Competition
This is somewhat related to the point on divided loyalties, but it focuses on fans without any existing loyalties. Not all Hispanic fans are spoken for. Some might not be following the sport at the moment, some might have a casual interest, or they follow a national team, but not a club team, and so on. The question for MLS is where does that fan go when his interest in soccer is awakened? Unfortunately for MLS, it isn’t the pinnacle of its sport and will likely never be. Therefore, MLS is by no means the default choice for American soccer fans. MLS has to compete with the EPL, La Liga, and the Serie A, along with all of the leagues in the various countries with which Hispanics may have ties, and any league where players from those countries could be featuring. This is dozens of leagues with hundreds of teams, all competing against MLS for the attention of the Hispanic-American soccer fan. This is in stark contrast to the NBA, the NFL, and MLB, who don’t have serious competition as the top league in their sport. Any fans they can attract to their sport will be attracted to the league and its teams.

The good news for MLS is that the Hispanic market may end up not being as important a piece of the puzzle as Garber thinks. The most successful teams by far in generating fan support in MLS have been in the cities with the lowest Hispanic population: Toronto and Seattle. Philadelphia, with a mere 8.5% Hispanic population, is doing very well in season ticket sales, and Portland (8.5%) and Vancouver (1.36%) will without doubt continue that trend. Compare that to FC Dallas's poor attendance in a region that is over 35% Hispanic and a picture starts to emerge. There are markets more fertile than Hispanics for American soccer and identifying and reaching out to those will give MLS it's best chance at robust growth. And if in the future, Hispanics in America are ready to embrace MLS, the league will be ready for them as well.

Goodbye and Thank You, Seba

CarlosT — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:13:02 -0000

The Philadelphia Union released their expansion draft picks and many Sounders fans will be saddened to see the very first MLS Sounder on the list. While names such as James Riley and Stephen King were heard quite often in the speculation leading up to the announcement today, Le Toux didn't figure much in the discussion. I, for one, have to admit to being completely surprised. The press release from the Sounders is here.

While Le Toux wasn't our biggest star, he was one of the players who made the most effort to connect with the fans, so he'll be missed more than just as a midfielder or forward. Thanks for everything, Seba and good luck.

Here's the full list of expansion draft selections:

Jordan Harvey
Andrew Jacobsen
Brad Knighton
Sebastien Le Toux
Stefani Miglioranzi
Alejandro Moreno
David Myrie
Shea Salinas
Shavar Thomas
Nick Zimmerman

Update: Statement from Adrian

“We’re sorry to be losing a member of our family in Seba. He contributed in a number of ways, both on and off field the field, during his three years as a Sounder. Since we could only protect 11 players, we knew this could happen. It’s a sad day for us, but Philadelphia has got to be pleased getting a player of such quality and character. We wish Seba all the best.” -- Adrian Hanauer

In all competitions Seba had scored 4 Goals with 7 Assists (0.73 PP90). He was on target 47.5% to lead the team. In League play he only had 1 Goal with 3 Assists (0.31 PP90). His +/- was a 7 and 0.43 per 90.

The Cost vs Quality Conumdrum

CarlosT — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 00:06:04 -0000

The 2009 MLS season is now in the books, and a final long on quantity (120 minutes plus penalties), but short on quality has crowned Real Salt Lake the champions. I'm sure the streets of Salt Lake City will be in full Rio Carnaval mode well into the middle of the day. Elsewhere, GMs around the league will roll into their offices and continue the process of building their teams so they can take RSL's place on the podium next year. The long term strategy of MLS has always had a strong emphasis on containing costs and anyone familiar with the history of soccer in the US knows why that is. Blockbuster transfers for international superstars will not be a featuring in MLS for a very long time. Instead, finding bargain players will be key to MLS success and the true test of GMs across the league.

The league is entering what Dave likes to call MLS 3.0 phase. MLS participates in international competitions, tying the league into a system of competitions that can lead all the way to a world title. The league now largely avoids "Americanizations" and plays the game by the same basic rules as the rest of the world uses. The exceptions such as playoffs and the lack of a promotion and relegation system, while irksome to the purists, have been implemented in such leagues as Brazil and Mexico, countries in which soccer can be said to have had some success. In short, MLS has matured into a league that is part of the world soccer community and the trend is headed in the right direction.

The big challenge facing MLS is converting the US soccer fan into MLS fans. At the moment, a fan of soccer without a an interest in a particular MLS team, doesn't have a lot of reasons to watch MLS. The level of play in MLS is still clearly inferior and cable and satellite networks such as ESPN, Setanta, Fox Soccer Channel, and GolTV allow a fan to watch game after game from Europe, South America, and even Asia and Australia. The best of these leagues feature teams with nearly unlimited budgets who scour the globe to find the very best talent. Many of these fans may sample an MLS match here or there and find the play rough, amateurish, and not particularly appealing. That was certainly true of the final and it was not a display that would have convinced a soccer fan not already sold on the league to invest time watching MLS.

To make that final sale with soccer fans, MLS needs to improve the standard of play and this is going to require that the league push the envelope on both cost containment and parity. Some of the ways this could happen include:

Some form of free agency.
At the moment, if a team makes an attempt to re-sign an out of contract player, they retain his MLS rights indefinitely. While this may be a great way to avoid the bidding wars that can sometimes accompany free agency, it also makes it harder for MLS to retain out of contract players. Take the example of Guillermo Barros Schelotto. The Crew have made an insultingly low renewal offer that is over 60% lower than his previous contract. Schelotto is now awaiting other offers, but because the Crew have attempted to re-sign him, any other MLS club interested in his services has to compensate the Crew with a player or money. Conversely, a foreign team can simply make an offer directly to Schelotto himself without involving the Crew in any way. The upshot is that if an MLS team and a foreign team have equal resources to spend on acquiring Schelotto, the MLS team will be at a disadvantage because it will have to divert some of that to appeasing the Crew, while the foreign team can spend it all on Schelotto himself. Given that many foreign teams have much greater financial resources than MLS teams, the disadvantage can be enormous.
Filling the DP slots
Now that Schelotto is out of contract, there are ten out of the possible sixteen DP slots in the league remaining unused. While having a Designated Player isn't a guarantee of success, good DPs raise the standard of play in the league and that's something MLS desperately needs. The ball control, passing, and finishing skills of your standard MLS player are still very rudimentary and that leads to a pinball style of play where the ball carroms semi-randomly around the field for long stretches of the game. Ten more players of the Beckham/Ljungberg caliber could make a big difference in reducing that short of play to a minimum and moving MLS toward a more sophisticated standard of play. At a minimum, MLS should consider measures to push teams to either use or trade their DP slots. The simplest way to do that is to make the DP salary cap hit automatic, regardless of whether the slot is filled or not. No team could ever afford to throw away that much of their salary cap, so they must either find a good DP or deal the slot to someone who can use it.
Be first to top quality players, especially on free transfers
This is somewhat related to the previous point. Recently I posted on the giant missed opportunity that Juninho represented for MLS. To recap, Juninho Pernambucano, one of the worlds greatest free kick takers and top attacking midfielders, became available earlier this year on a free transfer and made it clear that he was willing to leave Europe. He ended up signing a two-year, $2 million per year contract with a Qatari club, a deal that is fairly average for an MLS DP, as it would have been third out of seven at the time (Landin had yet to sign at the time). Before the DP rule allowed MLS teams to offer contracts on a par with world standards, an opportunity to sign a player such as Juninho was irrelevant and could be ignored. Those days are in the past.

As I mentioned, measures like these would push against the long standing and well justified policies of cost containment and parity in MLS. However, caution can be stultifying and counterproductive if it becomes a veto against any innovation that might involve some risk. The one risk MLS simply can't take, however, is allowing the level of play to remain stagnant and mired in mediocrity.

Refereeing and What To Do About It

CarlosT — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:46:01 -0000

Referees have once again made their way into the headlines and for once MLS has no apologies to make. In the second leg of a UEFA World Cup Qualification playoff, Thierry Henry made a vital assist, crossing across the face of goal to William Gallas' head to score the tying goal. The goal pulled France level in the match and ahead 2-1 on aggregate. There was a problem, though. See if you can spot it in this video.

You might have noticed the clear handball Henry commits to control the ball before his cross. If you did, you're a step ahead of the match officials, who never saw the offense and therefore allowed the goal to stand. Apparently, none of them had an angle that afforded a view of the incident captured by the cameras. Calls from Ireland and even Henry himself for a replay have been rejected by FIFA and probably rightly so. Referees will make errors and we can't set a precedent of replaying every game marred by such errors. It is clear, however, that something needs to be done. Refereeing mistakes may or may not be more common now than the past, but they certainly are more visible. Video technology allows us to see incidents in slow motion and often from multiple angles, and YouTube and other internet services allows those replays to circle the globe. So the importance of making the correct call has never been higher.

Various solutions have been proposed over the years, from video review during games to extra officials. One that's actually being tested right now in the Europa League is the addition of two extra match officials behind the goal lines. These officials are to function like a "human camera" giving the referee a head-on angle on the action, especially those crucial plays in the penalty area. Their close observation is also designed to act as a deterrent to diving and other forms of gamesmanship. They won't be making calls on their own, but instead will be providing the match referee with what they saw to help him in his decision. Would a goalline official have spotted Henry's handball? It's impossible to say, but it would have increased the chances, because had there been an Europa League style official in place, he would have been only a few feet away from Henry as the incident happened. It's now highly probable that we will see goalline officials at the World Cup.

So what does this mean for MLS? Credibility of officiating is crucial for MLS as it works to establish its reputation with soccer fans, and as we all know, refereeing in MLS has been abysmal at times. Unfortunately, the refereeing authorities at USSF aren't overly concerned. If one formed an opinion solely on the basis of the Week in Review reports they publish, one would believe that refereeing in this country is the standard to which all others around the world should aspire. After all, week after week, the USSF reviews and analyzes referee performances and always seems to conclude that the referees on the field got the call correct all along. While this may make USSF and the referees feel better about themselves, it stands in the way of improvement because no one works to fix a problem they don't believe exist. This is where Garber needs to step in and volunteer MLS as the first league to implement goalline officials for all its matches and to serve as a venue for training these new officials before they go to the World Cup. Because of the dire history of refereeing in MLS, it is the perfect league to test innovations designed to improve officiating, and the offset season means that goalline officials can get match experience for the World Cup without having to be introduced in the middle of a competition. Everyone wins, but the biggest winners of all would be MLS fans.