I am starting my fifth baseball season as a PSA member. I joined because my two sons were regulars and baseball was something we shared. They have both moved on and PSA is frankly not as interesting as it was. Still I read some of the stuff posted here and intend to write from time to time.

One of the things I have always done is a season forecast. I always did it around the start of spring training. At that time last year I predicted Yanks with 96 wins starting spring training and called a coin toss with the RS. But, I felt I had to revise after spring training.

This year I am going to just wait before projecting. It is a lot of work to do the math I do to project, and I expect a major change in the Yank roster before the season. I expect a trade that will send away pitching and bring back a bat. I expect to hate the deal because we can't trade Garcia, and probably can't trade AJ.

I am prepared to say I do not expect the RS to win the AL east. I will pick the Yanks to win and the RS to finish third.

I want to look back at the regular season and review the projections I posted on PSA. On Jan 8, before the start of spring training I posted a W-L projection for the Yanks and Boston of 96-66. More details on that below. Then I came back On April first and posted "Picking the Yankees to win the AL East."

I am actually amazed how well I did so I think I’ll point it out. I said the Yanks would score 874 runs and allow 720. They scored 861 and allowed 657. I said the Red Sox would score 875 and allow 724. They scored 875 and allowed 737. I said the Yanks would go 96-66. They went 97-65. I said the Yanks would win the East.

Other things I said.

Montero does not look ready to me. I do, however really like Martin.

Only 3 AL teams allowed more runs than Boston last year and they’ve done little to improve the staff. They’re relying on injury recovery and bounce back years to make them outstanding. Actually seems very optimistic to me.

I think Ivan Nova looked much better this spring

Boston is over rated, they’ll have to beat Tampa for the WC. I am actually as concerned about Tampa as Boston.

This is the first season when I thought of using projected ERA and projected runs scored to estimate a team’s record before the season. I was quite pleased with how it worked. I do not claim to have had any idea that the RS would choke to a historic meltdown, but I believed they were being vastly over rated. I wasn’t at all worried about them moving in on the ’27 or ’61 Yanks as the best team ever.

I’ll try the same method again next year.

The Red Sox September fold has been epic!

I still have a hard time seeing the Rays as making the Playoffs. Too many games against the Yanks. We will want to clinch and then we'll want the AL best record. While the RS have faded the Rays are closest, but the LAA's have crept close enough to be a threat. They are 2 back on the Rays and 3 on the RS in the loss column.

The Angels schedule does not look bad, Toronto, Oakland and Texas. Thet could get into this thing too, specially if Boston and Tanpa play .500 or less ball going forward.

I am rooting for Boston. I want the weakest team possible in the playoffs. The next couple days will clarify a lot of things.

Who would you like to see make the AL wildcard? Why?

Poll

Who do you want to see win the AL wildcard?

13%

Boston

29 votes

74%

Tampa

160 votes

12%

LA

27 votes

216 votes | Poll has closed

This really isn't over.

What do we have to do to make the playoffs? Really not much. We have 11 games left. To make the playoffs we need to win 2 of 7 against Tampa, then one of the 4 remaining games. That should be pretty easy, but it is not certain.

To win the division we need to beat the Red Sox. If we get 2 of 3 from the Sox we should be OK. We cannot count on much help from the O's against the RS but the RS are playing pretty poorly too.

I wonder if there is any way for us to right the ship and get so we start the playoffs playing well?

First let me say a few things about the rivalry with the RS. I think we've gone over the edge in hating the RS. I like baseball and appreciate it when it's played well. I hate it when the drunks in the stadium start chanting, "Red Sox suck". The RS do not suck. They are a very good team and a particularly explosive offense. Next let me say it usually does my heart good to see them lose. I have particular distaste for Youk and Pap. They seem like ugly, nasty people. So, why does this current slump make me unhappy? This is a very streaky team. When they get to the other side of this slump they are liable to get hot. If they are hot come playoff time they will be very dangerous. I'd rather have seen this slump in the playoffs. This is all based on the idea that as bad as they are playing, I don't think they'll miss the wild card. I'd love to see them miss it, but truly, I doubt it. I also do not think either Boston or Tampa can catch the Yanks. Of course they could, I just don't think it will happen.

Cervelli is back in Ny with what must be called another serious concussion. As you remember this is a repeating problem with Francisco. We are now aware that these concusions are a serious threat to the long term well being of anyone who has them repeatedly. There is a well respected theory that what killed Lou Gehrig might not have been ALS but might have been concussions. Years ago I was a big fan of boxing and football. I have sworn off both sports because I do not want to participate in the gamble participants of those sports take with their future. Baseball is not as bad, but catchers are exposed to more concussions than other players. So, this note to Francisco. Get well and make good decisions about whether to keep playing baseball. Your life is more important than playing the game. We wish you well.

When Derek Jeter was chasing his 3,000th hit I spent some time thinking about where he stood in the list of all time Yankee greats. I guess I wanted to write about this subject in the spring when the ignorant were calling for him to be benched. I wrote this once and lost it to a website malfunction. Tonight, while not going to the game despite having tickets, I’m writing it again.

So here is my list of the greatest Yankees:

1) Ruth

2) Gehrig

3) DiMaggio

4) Jeter

5) Mantle

6) Rivera

7) Berra

8) Ford

After this the field becomes too crowded for a simple list. But the point I wish to make is here. I first watched the Yankees in ’56. So, I never saw Ruth or Gehrig alive. I only saw Joe D. in the old timers’ game. I rank them where they are because of where they rank atop the list of greatest players in history. I saw Mantle. I loved Mantle. Before my knees were bad I tried to move like Mickey. He was so graceful I didn’t realize he was limping on both legs. I wear number 7 on my only Yankee Shirt.

But Derek Jeter has earned a spot in front of The Mick on my list. Why? Derek at his best was nowhere near as great as Mantle at his best. He was never the most feared hitter in baseball. He never contended for, or won a Triple Crown. Derek Jeter’s great attributes, playing for great teams, were that he won. He could be really great and was never bad. He played (plays) a premium defensive with rock solid steadiness. He hits, and hustles, stays in shape and stays in the game. He hustles. The worst thing you can say about him is that he’s boring off the field.

It doesn’t get talked about much, but Mantle threw tantrums. He’d strike out and go into the dugout and start throwing things on the field, seriously. Bats and helmets and whatever he could move. That, and the personal flaws which kept him from living up to that awesome potential lead me to drop hime to 4th on the list.

Let me tell you this. I remember Gill McDougal, Tony Kubek, Gene Michael, Bucky Dent and many more Yankee Shortstops. When DJ finally leaves the field we are going to miss him.

I laugh when people wonder who will be the next Mariano, or the next core four. I watched 20 years of the next Mantle turn into Tom Tresh, Bobby Mercer, and Ron Bloomberg. There is never going to be another Derek Jeter, or Mariano. Enjoy the countdown to 600 and the all time saves record. Watch these guys while you can. Enjoy them, and hold on to some memories. Your children or grandchildren will ask you if you remember Jeter, and Mariano.

Is it just me that finds this season kind of a muddle?  The Yanks have their nose in front of the Red Sox.  Their .587 winning percentage projects to 95 wins.  But I do not feel that great.  I looked at the numbers to find out why.  What I found was that the Yanks have been good for this first nearly half a season.  They have been good, and unlucky.  Numbers indicate that, compared to the Boys from Boston, we have been the better team.

Continue reading this post »

I am lucky Dad is still with me.  On October 4 he will enter his 90th year.  Dad was raised in Yonkers by his father who was an outstanding athlete as a young man and a Coach of footbal, basketball and baseball.  Dad went to Syracuse as a basketball scholarship and played a little for the Baltimore Bullets of the 1940's.  He watched all sports in a way I barely understand.  He watched the skills, mental and physical.  He roots for players to do well, good play was always more important than winning.  Play hard, play smart, enjoy your victories and shake off your defeats.

There will always be defeats.  There will always be someone better than you.  Do your best but have fun.

In that way dad loved all the players.  But loved excellence.

Excellence.

Lou Gehrig, Dad always said the records do not do him justice.  While being careful to say that by the time he was old enough to see and remember Ruth he was 'over the hill', Dad says Gehrig is the best player he ever saw.  Gehrig's defense was the big thing for Dad.  Lou was big, but around first he was quick as a cat and graceful as a dancer.  Best defensive first baseman ever?  Wow, who knows.

The way Lou carried himself was part of the attraction.  He was quiet, almost shy.  He did not play with flash that drew attention to him.  He did the job and went and sat down.  A fitting hero for the unassuming WWII generation.

Thanks for the lessons dad. 

I was looking forward to a good day at the Stadium and the day did not disappoint.  I was excited to see what it was about Brian Gordon that Cashman and Co. liked enough tograb out of someone else's AAA and hand him the ball as a starter.  I had felt confident that we had plenty of arms in Scranton or the bullpen to make a spot start.  I was in fact a little disappointed the start didn't go the Noesi.

I went to the game with John.  He's a relatively new acquaintence who is becoming a friend.  He made congenial company and claim responsibility for the day's good luck.

You guys who saw the game on TV probably have a better idea than I how Gordon pitched. I was glad to see them give out 22 in a low stress situation.  With Gordon being new I didn't hear any comment on Rocket's old numeral.  He pitched quickly and had good control.  He showed a lot of speed change.  He threw a fastball in the low 90's.  He threw a big overhand curve that he made some mistakes with but also got some awfull looking swings at.  The curve was in the 60's or 70's for velocity.  He threw an occasional slider in the low 80's and was throwing some pitch the scoreboard miss ID'd as a 83 more or less fastball.

I was thrilled with 5+ innings and 2 runs. Althoigh he left behind 2-1.

 More after the jump

Continue reading this post »

I guess I'll start with bad baserunning.  The last few days were just loaded with really bad baserunning by the Yanks.  I like Bret Gardner. I hope he'll be a Bernie Williams type career Yankee.  I love seeing him bunt for a base hit the other day.  But he has been a disaster on the base paths.  He's been consistently caught stealing.  He's been picked off, he's failed to advance on the Boston passed ball.  What is up with this?  Is he feeling too much pressure to do something on the bases and swinging between too agressive and too passive?  I am really frustrated with this.

Add to GGBG's problems having Posada start hitting means having him on the bases.  He is a real problem out there.  Recent examples include being out at second streching a single, being picked off second on a missed bunt (by GGBG) and jamming up the bases by just being slow.  The Friday night double by Gardner would have been a triple with almost anyone on first.  But Jorge couldn't score so Bret went back to second.

I always hate baserunning mistakes.  Usually they are rare.  Now I think I see a glut of them.

On the subject of beanballs.  I looked at the year's stats by team regarding how many times a team's players were HBP and how many times that team's pitchers hit opposing batters.  I just expected my prejudice to be confirmed.  The Yanks get hit a lot and they rarely hit opponents.

I got a surprise.  The Yanks are not the leaders in being hit more than they hit.  Nor are they the leaders in being hit.  The league's biggest target team is the White Sox!  They were hit a league leading 40 times(YTD through Friday). Add to this the fact they hit opponents the least of any team, 14.  and the have a differential of 26.  This is way more than the second place Yanks +12 (33 and 21).  Third is a tie between Oakland and Baltimore at +7. 

On the other end of the list I expected the Boston Beantowners.  They did not disappoint hitting opponents a league leading 40 times.  Happily they do not get away with it unpunished, they got hit a respectable 26 times for a diffential of  -14 that does not lead the league.  Toronto has -16.  They hit others a solid 31 times and got hit only 15 times.  Interesting. 

It seems to me the Yanks are getting hit a lot, and really hit hard.  The recent 2 hits on Tex and the ball in Arod's hip seem really viscious.  Anyone have any historical insight?  I'm too busy to do the research, at least for a while.  Do these teams feel they can intimidate our guys?

With an older team it seems the injury risk to these big stars from these attacks is something we will have to worry about.  Depth is important to a team, but you cannot replace a Texiera or Arod.

Poll

Should the Yanks do more to protect hitters being hit by pitches?

58%

Yes

33 votes

3%

No

2 votes

37%

There is no real way to do this

21 votes

56 votes | Poll has closed

As we think about Joba's injury I cannot help another Verducci effect rant.

As the Yanks brought the young prospect along they bent over backwards to try to protect him from the Verducci effect.  When he was in the pen they limited his innings and his appearances.  When he had a try as a starter they limited his innings by pulling him from games, skipping starts, etc etc.  At the time I thought they damaged what they were trying to protect. 

Now he has the injury they went nuts to avoid.  I feel badly and wish Joba the best.

So, it is time to look at the Verducci effect again.  Those of you with long memories will recall I've written on this before, usually to the effect that we do not know if the idea is valid because the evidence presented is not adequate show that things like Joba Rules are necessary or smart.

Let me talk for a minute about how industry thinks about machinery that breaks down periodically. They develop statistics in the form of mean time between failures.  These statistics are not time in the calender sense.  These stats are mean number of operating hours between failures.  If it were a fleet of vehicles the stat might be miles between failures.  By extension the number I'm interested in is pitches between injuries.

First let me say that human bodies are very different.  If we do stats we will find out about averages.  I do not know if we will ever be able to tell which pitching prospect is going to break down and which will pitch til his hair is grey.  Baseball has always had it's Nolan Ryan, Satchel Paige, Jamie Moyer, Warren Spahn's who pitch into their 40's.  What I think is that it's them, not how they were used that made them last.

The young pitchers who got hurt fairly quickly after a big work load increase?  Duh.  What I think is their arm had x pitches to throw before injury.  When they started pitching more the injury came.  No one has presented ANY evidence that the increased work load CAUSED an injury in a way that lightening the work load would prevent injury.  I think it's likely that delaying the date a pitcher throws his 100,500th pitch delays any injury he was always going to get around his 10.500th pitch (obviously the number is arbitrary and just meant as an example.)

I hope we will soon see the Yankees stop delaying the development of their prospect pitchers.  I'd love to see someone get hired to do the statistical project.  The country is full of people with enough stats to do a better analysis.  If we want to know the answer the best way would be to do it like medical research.  Randomly assign young pitchers to different groups, treat them differently, track them and see if the results are different.  I do not know how it could be done 'blind', but it would be better if it were.

Joba, get well man.  Get your treatment, or operation, rehab, and come back to us.

Poll

The Joba rules-

7%

Were what we needed to do.

6 votes

21%

Failed but we had to try

17 votes

12%

Were just a waste

10 votes

58%

Were a waste that damaged Joba's career and value to the Yanks

46 votes

79 votes | Poll has closed

James's dad Craig was baseball captain at FSU.  His mom, Mary BECK Ramsay is my youngest sister, and went to FSU as a tennis player.  James has been an outstanding left handed hitter, hitting cleanup for FSU's 2010 team that played well in the College world series.

I am proud of my nephew and wish him the best.  I suspect he's not real signable and might be back at FSU for his senior year next year.

 

The Yanks are 31 and 23.  They have played 54 games which is 1/3 of the 162 game season.  I wanted to look at few pieces of data and assess how they are shaping up.

I admit that holding a 2 game lead in the East is a nice place to be.  Many experts had crowned the Red Sox before spring training.  I looked at the teams going into spring training and predicted a tie for AL East with the Yanks and Sox each winning 96.  After ST I revised to a Yank win at 98 wins.

The 31 wins in hand project to 93 for the year, so we are a little behind pace.

Continue reading this post »

The Yankees are struggling.  But because the rest of the AL East is struggling too our position does not look too bad.  But there is a question to be faced.  Is the Eastern Division's dominance of the AL coming to an end?  These thoughts triggered by the slump and Posada's craziness.

I think it is.  Even if this is not the year, THE END IS NEAR!

There have been great small market teams over the years.  We saw periods of great baseball  in Pittsburgh, Cinci, KC, St. Louis, Baltimore and Oakland. I am sure I've missed teams which deserve to be mentioned.  But these great teams slid and fell into dark days.  It is hard to win from these places (harder since free agency).  Someday Tampa will fall too.  Amoung the big teams there seems to be a cycle of being good and having to rebuild.  The Yanks have sometimes managed to be good and rebuild at the same time, but not always.

I think the Yanks and Boston are trying to stay good and rebuild at the same time, but.  The Yanks are pretty old and the Red Sox (particularly their pitching) are pretty thin.

This could well be a year where the second finisher in the AL East is not a cinch to be the Wild Card team.  By next year the Wild Card could be devalued enough it will not be the prise it has been.

If Cleveland is for real, they or the Tigers can be a real challenge for the WC.  Chicago or the Twins could wake up.  There seem to be several reasonably good teams in the west too.

I am not paniced by the slump.  I think the Yanks are still the best team in the AL.  But a period of greater parity does seem to be coming.  The Yankees will not replace the core four.  As their time at the top ends, it is worth saying that there has never been another group quite like them.  There will probably never be another group together so long and so sucessful for so long.

It will be fun to see how Cano, Granderson and Tex can do in the coming years.  Who will anchor the pitching over a period of years?  I think we'll get more insight into how great Joe Torre was.  He would have handled this Posada thing better, wouldn't he?

Change is upon us.  Go Yanks.

The Yanks have 3 with KC.  Then they have 3 with Boston followed by 2 with Tampa.  I am excited.

There is a temptation to call it a big week.  Calmer heads say things like how big can a game be in May?  They also say that all games count the same.  I however think it is an exciting week.

Kansas City has played well.  They are 18 and 16 and second in the AL Central.  They are however a lower tier team and one we should fatten up against.  Part of the luck required to win a close race in baseball is the need to not catch poor or mediocre teams when they are hot.  It is important to win the KC series.  A sweep would be great.

Then the in division games come.  Any way you look at it these are big games.  We need to get wins against the teams we must beat to make the playoffs.  We should try hard to keep our nose in front of the young Tampa team.  It would not be good for them to start to believe they are good enough to beat us.

We also want to do all we can to continue the misery in Boston.  I felt before the season began they were vastly over rated.  I do not think this Boston team is much better than the one which missed the playoffs last year.  I am quite convinced that the tallk of them as rival to the 1927 Yanks was hogwash.  Still taking at least 2 of 3 seems like an important statement.

The Yanks are 19 and 13 for a percentage of .594.  I'd like to see them stay around .605 or .610 ( which is on pace for 98 or 99 wins).  I think 98 or 99 wins would be a very nice result for this team.  Then we'd have to roll the dice in the playoffs. 

Go Yanks, make me proud (and happy)!

A couple days past two weeks into the season, I was thinking about where we stand.  So, I thought I'd write a post.

The Yanks are 8 and 5.  That's a winning percentage of  .615 which is on pace for about 100 wins.  It is a small sample size but as a start it is right on target.  The Red Sox and Raysare off  to poor starts but it would be foolish to make any conclusions.  The RS are 5 games out while the Rays are 2 1/2 back.  These deficits wouldn't be much at All-Star break, now they are not even very interesting. 

The Red Sox are a good team that is suffering through pitching problems.  It is not at all clear that this is just a bump in the road for the Sox.  They improved their offense this off season, but before the offseason they were the second best offense in the AL.  They still are the second best offense in the AL.  They did not, however, improve the starting pitching that won only 89 games last year.  The staff is a year older and Lackey and Dice-K are real question marks.  At the start of the season I projected the RS for second in the AL East with 96 wins.  I am not ready to alter that.

The two weeks have been interesting for the Yanks.  Most of them have performed close enough to expectations to not need much comment.  There are several comments I would like to make.

Russel Martin has looked really good.  I expected good, but he has impressed me.  I hope he can stay healthy.  Of course he will have ups and downs, but he's a great addition.

Phil Hugheshas looked really bad.  I have faith he'll bounce back, but I am concerned.

Ivan Novahas not impressed.  Regular readers know I do not believe in him.

Bartolo Coln has looked good.  In fact, almost too good to believe.  I am glad to see him get a few starts.  I also hope the boys in AAA are getting ready, because I think we'll need them.

AJ has looked very good.  His willingness to use the changeup is a pleasnt surprise.  The effectiveness of the changeup is a shock.  AJ's weakness was always that he was a two pitch pitcher.  If either was even a little off he got blasted by teams sitting on the other.  The third pitch changes the equation.  I really expect a good year from him.  A good year from him is a key to a great Yankee year.

Garcia looked good today.  A good year from him and I'll need playoff tickets, several rounds.

Tampa is a question mark.  For them to be a factor kids will have to step up. This is possible but far from a sure thing.  It is possible that Tampa's run as a top team is over for now.  I remember when Cleveland, KC and Pittsburg were good.  They will be again someday, but who knows when.  Remember when Billy Beane was a genius?

So, nice start but keep you head.  149 games to go.  A big injury or two could change the equation, and the RS still figure to win 96.  They may win 10 in a row, starting any day, including today.

Today Ivan Nova wasn't very good.  What he was, however, is good enough for the Yankees to win in Fenway today.

This gives us two things to think about.  First, the offense and bullpen can cover over some pretty weak starting pitching.  Second, the way the pitching has gone, how long before we see Bartolo Colon get the ball as a starter?

I really saw the Nova I expected today.  I can still hope for more, but right now I think it is optimistic to count on more.   But i also saw a truely dominant performance by the bullpen and the offense.  There will be days when some pitcher is dealing and shuts us down.  but more often we will score enough to win with pretty ordinary pitching.

Now I'd like to see a solid outing from CC.  With Hughes and Nova being vulnerable, and AJ still being a question mark in my eyes, we are leaning on CC Sabatha very hard.  If he's solid, we have time to straighten out another starter or two.  If CC has problems the year could turn into a struggle.

All the stockpiling of vetran retreads might not be overconservative.  Right now the signings of Garcia and
Colon look pretty smart.

I believe in Hughes and AJ, but expect bumps in the road.  Big game Sunday night.  Go Yanks, win series, build a solid year.

At the start of spring training I wrote a statistically based post showing my projection of 96 wins for the Yanks and 96 wins for the Boston bad boys.  As the spring has worked through I felt better and better about the Yanks.  I do not think we can know what will happen in the season, that's part of the charm of the game, but I now feel I can pick against the chalk.

The Yanks will win the AL East.

I do not think the spring could have gone better.  AJ made progress toward a bounce back.  Hughes looked good.  CC is CC.  Our key guys had good springs.  We can envision excellent years from Arod and Tex.  But really impressed me were the other pieces.  I like the swings of Jeter, Grandy and GGBG.  The bullpen looked like a million dollars.  I was a catcher and watch them closely.  Montero does not look ready to me.  I do however really like Martin

I am favorably impressed by Gacia and Colon.  I think Ivan Nova looked much better this spring, he may just become a serviceable starter.  The real reason for my optimism is not Colon, Garcia, and Nova.  One or more of them will falter, I am looking forward to it.  The big news for me this spring is the raft of young arms coming.  I am now a ManBan believer, the kid is a coming star if he can stay healthy.  We should be careful with him.  But I am also reconverted to a fan of Brackman, I expect to see him break in this year.  This team is little changed from last year's, but I think it's better.

I am convinced that the Yanks have a better lineup than Boston.  The Yanks have a better bullpen than Boston.  Both teams have questions in the rotation.  The Yanks have ALL That young pitching talent.  The experts are wrong.  The Yanks are the better team in 2011.  Boston is over rated, they'll have to beat Tampa for the wild card.  I am actually as concerned about Tampa as Boston.

Tampa lost a lot of talent this winter, but their farm has been so good that not knowing what to expect from them makes me nerveous.

OK, GO YANKS.  Make me proud.

Bartolo Colon should get a rotation slot.  If this spring's performance by Colon doesn't do it, why did they bring him at all?  How good were they hoping he would be?

Still the Yanks are saying things like "We want Nova to win a spot."  and "We know who Freddy is"  Which indicate they may go with Ivan Nova (who has, in fairness, looked better this spring than he did last year to me)

So, the question becomes who is the odd man out.  If one of these three can fit the long relief slot the one to go to the minors or be released would be Mitre.  Freddy Garcia has been quoted as saying he'd do long relief if asked.  I'd like to try Nova there.  If he continues to have problems the second time through the lineup he still projects as a reliever.

What do you guys think?

Poll

Who is the odd man out in the 4 man competition for 3 pitching spots?

1%

Nova

2 votes

0%

Colon

1 votes

12%

Garcia

21 votes

85%

Mitre

144 votes

168 votes | Poll has closed

Finally, pitchers and catchers have had their physicals!  They represent most of the drama for Spring Training.  I hope we don't make any deseration trades until we answer some of these questions.

Is Martin going to do his job and be a bridge to the great catching prospects in our system?  Will working with Cano in the off season awaken enough offense in Frank Cervelli to stay on the major league bench?  How far away is Montero?  Is Montero ready? (At least we don't need him to step up immediately)

Is AJ going to bounce?  IS Phil going to keep growing into an ace?  Who will emerge from a large bunch of fair choices to be our number 4 and 5 starters?  How far away are Noesi, Brackman, and the rest of the prospects?

Somebody is going to surprise us, somebody will disappoint.  I'm going to love seeing it play out!

Hay tip to Lohud.

• Jay Jaffe used PECOTA to evaluate the Yankees fourth and fifth starter candidates.

While they haven't projected Batolo Colon, this is what they said.

Pitcher            AGE   HR/9  BB/9  SO/9   GB%    ERA   WARP/100
Sergio Mitre         30   1.2   2.6   5.3   49.9%   4.67   1.1
Hector Noesi        24   1.3   2.8   6.7   40.5%   4.75   1.2
Freddy Garcia      35   1.4   2.7   5.6   43.8%   4.81   1.2
Dellin Betances     23   1.2   5.3   8.3   42.7%   4.83   1.6
David Phelps        24   1.2   3.3   5.5   46.9%   5.02   1.0
Manuel Banuelos   20   1.2   4.9   7.2   44.4%   5.04   0.9
Ivan Nova             24   1.1   4.0   5.0   49.9%   5.23   0.7
Andrew Brackman   25   1.3   5.2   6.2   48.5%   5.89   0.0

I understood this and prevciously posted a Mitre is a better choice than Nova for fifth starter. I write now to wonder why our PA club has such a low opinion of Mitre. I also wonder why Nova is so well liked. I saw these guys pitch too and didn't like Nova from the start. The way I saw him he consistently missed his spots by a long distance.

Given the numbers, why do we like Nova?

This is another heads up on Noesi. I have not seen him pitch and am dying to. I'd love to see him make the active roster.

Poll

Who will make the Yankees rotation out of Spring Training?

4%

Colon

8 votes

9%

Mitre

16 votes

2%

Noesi

4 votes

43%

Garcia

77 votes

1%

Betances

3 votes

2%

Phelps

4 votes

4%

Banuelos

8 votes

29%

Nova

52 votes

2%

Brackman

5 votes

177 votes | Poll has closed

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I had an interesting day at Yankee Stadium today.  The Yanks have instituted a new procedure this year by allowing package owners to come to the stadium for an opportunity to check out what seats in the stadium are available and to trade their seats for any of the available seats which they may prefer.

I have been buying a 15 game pack.  Last year’s seat were a Saturday pack in Section 408.  These were out by the right field foul pole and way up, under the roof.  At least they were dry in the rain.  When the old stadium was closed I had a Sunday pack about ½ way from home to third.  So my seats had gotten a lot worse with the move north to the new park.  I was so unhappy with the seats that I had decided to stop buying them unless I could get a lot better seats.

What happened after the break.

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There are just a couple of days more than 3 weeks until pitchers and catchers report.  I think we can draw some conclusions about the Yankees’ thinking by examining what they have done and not done.

They like last year’s team.  We can conclude this because they have changed the team very little.  They have substituted Jones for Thames.  There is no doubt this is a defensive upgrade.  But the big question is pitching.

They gave Cliff Lee the opportunity to join the staff.  When he declined they have stood pat.  We know that they made Pavano an offer.  IT was not an overpowering offer and they let themselves be outbid.  We do not know who else they made offers to, just that they were not taken.  From this I conclude that they like what they have better than we may think.  So, what is up?

CC, Hughes, and AJ are locks.  That leaves us two to 4 slots.  Two starters are definitely required.  I think they also need one or two pitchers of the description ‘long man and spot starter’.  One of these guys can be in Scranton with a Limo in the parking lot.  Let’s look at who’s on the 40 man roster.

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The rules in corporate life are pretty simple.  You pitch your ideas as hard as you can, to try to get them implemented.  If your boss (or a group) over rules you, you get in line and support the organization's decision.  You say "we" in refering to it.  You never come out and say, as Cash just did, "I didn't support it"  and air the issue again.

Cashman's statements at Soriano's press conference were surprising to me.  They were a huge breach of corproate manners.  I believe it is showing a serious breach with his bosses.  This brings two main ideas.  First, Cash is on a 3 year contract ending with 2011 (Cot's), will he leave at the end of this contract?  Second, Could he possibly be hoping for a wave of fan support?

Poll

Brian Cashman's contract runs through 2011 (this year), Do you support him for another 3 year term?

51%

Yes, bring him back! A replacement would not be better.

84 votes

12%

No, let him go! Any fool could do that job.

20 votes

25%

I don't know. L.et's look at who's available at season end and decide then

41 votes

10%

Why wait? Dump him now!

17 votes

162 votes | Poll has closed

Mind you, neither is great but here are the facts.

For 2010 IP Mitre 54, Nova 42; Games Mitre 27, Nova 10; ERA Mitre 3.33 (Team rank 8) Nova 4.5 (14); WHIP Mitre 1.09 (3) Nova 1.45 (14); SLG Mitre.378 (11) Nova .390 (14); OBA Mitre .288 (4) Nova .339 (13).

Mitre will turn 30 2/16.  He missed all of 2008 and had Tommy John on July 15, 2008.  He pitched pretty poorly in 2009, but he was still in the recovery process from surgery.  There is reason to hope we might get something approaching a decent starter from him.

Ivan Nova ps exactly 3 years younger than Jscape, born 1/12/1987.  So, at 23 he is a prospect and can develop with minor league time.  He showed us in 2010 what he showed the Padres in 2009, He's not quite major league ready.  It is my feeling he should start 2011 in AAA and try to earn a call up.  I am afraid we will damage his prospects by rushing him.  He did not have major league command last year, EVEN THOUGH HE LOOKED LIKE HE HAD BIG LEAGUE STUFF.  In AAA Mitre needs to improve his 3 W / 9 innings and his 1.26 WHIP.

I hope we will have 2 pitchers who will beat him out in Spring Training.  I expect Mitre to be one of them.

We are about a month before pitchers and catchers so I thought I’d try to project the year for Yanks and Boston.  I like numbers and wanted to try to use the formula for Pythag wins as a basis.  Then I could go through the stats and develop a less biased estimate.  Going in I was emotionally pessimistic.  After the analysis I’m excited.

Analysis of the Yankee offense is pretty easy, because not much has changed.  Returning Yanks had 4,905 ABs last year.  Players no longer with the team had 950 Abs.  Returners scored 786 runs v 115.  Returners drove in 746 v 119.  Returners had a OBS of .793 v .739.

Do we expect the returning players to be better or worse?  I started to look at the Yanks history of runs scored, but going back changes the team to Damon, Matsui, etc.   Instead I’ll look at the players.  I expect a minor bounce back from Jeter, Arod, and Tex.  Jeter’s down year may signal a decline but I expect 2011 to be better than 2010, probably around half way back to historic numbers.  Arod and Tex had injury problems and I hope they’ll be healthier.  I am prepared for minor regression from Cano and Gardner. (personally I hope for a breakout year for GGBG but didn’t put that in the analysis so we wouldn’t argue that now.) I expect solid years from Swish and Grandy, probably similar to this year.  Grandy might be better, Swish might regress, who knows?  So, everywhere but catcher and DH I expect a small improvement in performance.

At DH Thames played 82 games with OPS of .491.  Posada played 120 games last year between catching and DH and had Ops of .454.  If he is able to adapt to DH, and I see no reason he shouldn’t he may be more productive because of feeling better.  Still this looks like a wash.  The advantage is Posada switch hits pretty well.  Thames had trouble with righties. Posada will not be neutralized by an opponent’s pitching move.

So, the only remaining question is catcher.  Here we have big questions. Can Martin and Montero outperform Posada and Cervelli offensively?  I actually do not think so.  If they do perform up to hype my runs estimate may be low.

When I put this all together I project a slight improvement in runs scored from 859 to 874.  A similar analysis on the Red Sox shows a much greater improvement.  My numbers show them edging the Yanks in runs scored with 875.

So, what can we project about pitching?  Last year the Yanks gave up 693 runs.  Returning pitcher (without Pettitte) pitched 951 innings v 528 for departers.  ERA for returners was 3.88 v 4.64.  WHIP for returners was 1.28 v 1.39.  I do not know who will pick up the extra innings but I estimate the replacement pitchers at WHIP 1.4 and ERA 4.8.  I think these are pretty achievable numbers.  With no bounce back for AJ or CC, and no regression for Hughes (I guess all these will happen and wash) I show a slight degradation of the staff to 720 runs allowed.  This gives the Yanks an estimate of 874 scored, 720 allowed.  This gives a Pythag win % of .593, w 96 l 66.

If Pettitte returns I think he’ll save the Yanks 20 runs and raise the team to 99-63.  This is still a good team. 

Analysis of the RS made me guess run improvement from 818 to 875.  While the pitching staff is about the same they had a lot of injuries.  In 2010 they gave up 744 runs.  I expect them to improve for 2011 marginally.  I guess 724 runs allowed.  This makes my guess for 2011 875 scored, 724 allowed.  Win % .594, record 96-66.

Wow, I guess it’s a coin toss.  Let’s play ball!

The FBI has released George Steinbrenner's file. 

http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=5951156

redacted

 This was not a nice man.  He was tough, egotistical, self centered, rude and demanding.  He made a good owner for the Yankees because he wanted to win and had the resources to make it happen.  But he was involved in one of the darkest periods in American history.

 

redacted

George Steinbrenner was convicted of illegal contributions. Some of his money funded the kind of corruption of our electoral process that I think Nixon embodied. Baseball banned him, but in the kind of  ineffective way they banned steroids.  Everyone knew he still ran the Yanks.

Eventually, the Boss was pardoned by Reagan, readmitted to baseball.  I did not bother to look up the chronology and dates.  I know what I think.  I think a man who did these things does not belong in the HOF.

By making the Yanks winners he made his family a fabulous amount of money.  Look at the value of the franchise now, compared with what he paid for it.  He was a good business man who made money from tickets, memorabilia, TV, Etc  He understood that winning Yankees was good for business.  It made money.

I hate the disproportionally large Monument to him that has been stuck into monument park.  No way he is more important than Ruth, Gehrig, Etc.

I admit that all baseball owners have to be very rich.  If you want to argue that you can't get that rich without being a lying crook, so all owners are bad, I'll just say maybe we should draw the line at felony convictions.  Our country is just part of the world where the super rich enrich themselves by abusing the less powerful, because they can.  Remember all this when you grossly overpay for your seats, parking, hot dog and beer.

Remember all this when you are tempted to gush over what a great guy the boss was.

I love the game, but it is run by bad, bad people.  George Steinbrenner was just one of the worst.

Italic comments are edits by jscape2000 to keep this fanpost more about baseball.  I know that things bleed together, especially when talking about money and power, but let's try to keep things as connected to baseball as possible.

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I spent some time looking at the numbers in the Cliff Lee pursuit.  In my opinion the Yankee offer was not the "knockout" type of offer you cannot refuse.  I can make the arguement that the offers where close enough to each other to let the decision be made on intangibles.

We lost on intangibles.  Leaving the decision to be made on intangibles is courting disaster.  We should have bid more and we failed to.

So, there are 3 possible scenarios. 1) The Yanks didn't think we needed Lee as much as Pinstripe Alley thought we needed him.  2)  Cashman didn't really have the money available to make that "KO" offer.  This could be because of a budget number from ownership or a self imposed idea of some sort.  3) Cashman misjudged the other offers and misjudged the negotiation.  He said "final answer" too soon.

I think the likely answer is a combination of 2 and 3.  What that means to us is that the days of dominance are behind us.  These are no longer George Steinbrenner's big spending Yankees.  They have been holding the Yankee payroll down as others, Boston LA Philly etc, creep closer to us in total dollars.

Is it true the Yankees are prepared to be OK with competing?  Is it true we no longer mean to dominate?  Will we be OK with a WS every decade or so?  It looks to me like we will need to be OK with that unless our inexperienced owners get a lot looser with the FA budget.  We won't get the results we want bidding "market price plus one dollar.

With the Phils willing the go 5 yrs at $24MM per year we would have had to go $29 or $30 MM per to get to the "How can you turn that down?" level.  I bet 5 years $150MM would have done it.  Or 7 at $203MM?  Don't you think George would have done it?

I know this is the kind of offer the haters hate us for.  Face it, they'll hate us anyway, why not get our man.  Paying big for Arod did upset our relationship with Jeter. Not every player is as good a team player as Jeter.  I guess I'm willing to deal with those problems.

We needed to blow the others away for Lee, just like we did for CC.  The real bad news is that we didn't.  We do not know if we could have.  We only know we didn't.