SB Nation User Blog: Cbeck3

The 40 man and Roy Halladay

Cbeck3 — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 22:16:24 -0000

There is a jam in the Yankees 40 man roster.

There may be an opportunity to trade for Roy Halladay.

Talk has centered around one of the young stud pitchers and a prospect. this type of deal starts to make more sense for the Yankees if the prospect to add to Joba or Phil is on the 40 man.

Do you think players like Juan Miranda or Ramiro Pena could have a place in this kind of deal? I think it is time to deal Miranda. He is starting to look ML ready with potential to be a very good hitter. But, the Yanks are committed to Tex so Miranda will not play first here in the foreseeable future.

It seems to me this kind of a deal makes sense for the Yankees and beats the pants off the packages being rumored for the Halladay to Boston deal.

We particularly are carrying a glut of infielders and pitcher prospects who are farther from the bigs. I would even include Brett Gardener, or any of Wilkin De La Rosa, Michael Dunn etc etc.

I am usually a guy who would rather sign a free agent rather than trade and extend. I feel like I'd like to see the Yankees pull the trigger on Halladay. I've also decided if I have to trade Joba or Phil I'd rather trade Joba. I like the heck out of Phils calm professional approach. There is something a little out of control about Joba.

What do you think?

Center Field

Cbeck3 — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 04:58:01 -0000

We've been thinking about Holiday and Bay.

Well Cleveland is rebuilding. What would you give for Grady Sizemore? I'm sure the trade would take quite a bit of talent but he's a great player. He's a class act. I was surprised how young he is (27).

By the way wasn't the trade when Cleveland got him one of the great trades of all time?

Should we tell Cash to get on the horn?

Thoughts on the 2010 Yankees

Cbeck3 — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 14:13:18 -0000

At the close of a very entertaining year my thoughts turn to the questions for the of season.

First, who's contract is up and should we resign them.

Wang, yes. I think he's been a valuable pitcher and we should give him a low cost contract and let him have a year to recover. Emotional decision on my part but I think it is a smart one. Not too much pitching out there.

Pettitte, Yes Yes. If he will come back, we need him. If he wants to come back he's earned it. We want to get younger but we want to win while doing it.

Matsui, No, probably not. This is hard but I do not think there's room on the roster for a pure DH. Maybe a 1 year if Damon walks.

Damon, Yes. I think we have to make Austin Jackson push his way in. We should not just award him a spot. He did have a good season in AAA but he may still need some time to overcome the tendency to strike out too much. One Year with a team option. If he needs too much more than that then let him go.

Jerry Hairston Jr. Yes, I think I would. Make him play a lot of outfield in spring training. He's bad out there, but a good utility man.

Jose Molina, difficult question. Yes, Posada is a very old catcher. Cervelli is ready for a shot at the bigs. I think I want 3 catchers.

X Nady. No. Not unless he signs cheap and short

Eric Hinske, No. Too limited. In my eye he's a bad outfielder.

Did I miss anyone?

Who do we plan to promote. We need to get a starter or two out of Hughes, Chamberlain, Aceves, Gaudin, etc etc.

The bull pen will work itself out. I think we have enough arms.

More time in the majors for Pena and Cervelli.

Austin Jackson, we need to give him every chance to push his way into the outfield picture.

So, who do we need to sign?

Pettitte is the top priority. He's the only must in our resigns. If we don't get him we really need afront end starter.

John Lackey. This may be hard to do, but give it a run. He's only 31. Who knows if Wang can come back.

Jason Bay or Carl Crawford. Specially if Damon asks too much. I expect another down year in Free agent prices. This is specially true with the Yanks not needing much.

Yankees vs Angles; Is it a coin toss?

Cbeck3 — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 23:29:11 -0000

It's hard to figure out what to say about the series. I can think of a number of ways to approach this statistically. The one I like best is quite simple. I normalise the team's winning percentage to approximate an estimated probability that the Yanks win a particular game. I estimate each game is .515 that the Yanks win. .485 the Angels win. This would give an estimated probability the Yanks win the series as .533 vs .467 the Angles win.

It would be much more work but perhaps more accurate to figure to probability of winning games started by the pitchers of a given day. I think I'll look for the data and if I can do it I'll post it if anyone's interesrted.

At anyrate here's the probability summary of the potential outcomes.

Yanks to Angels
4 to 0	4to 1	4 to 2	4 to 3	3 to 4	2 to 4	1 to 4	0 to 4
0.070	0.136	0.165	0.160	0.151	0.147	0.114	0.055
			0.533	0.467

So, my honest calculation is that this is a toss up. It is also true I do not believe this. If we played this series over and over I think we'd win two thirds.

So, here are the probable playoff starters and their team's records in their appearances this year.

Sabathia	22-11	0.666667
burnett	23-10	0.69697
Pettitte	21-11	0.65625
		0.673295


Lackey	14-13	0.518519
Kasmir	16-10	0.615385
Saunders	20-11	0.645161
Weaver	21-12	0.636364
		0.603857

Looking at the pitching matchups, I think the Yanks probability of winning a particular game rises to .527. The probability of winning the series increases to .559. Still pretty close to a tossup. I reallly like our chances in the CC vs Lackey. I think this is amplified by the fact this is likely to come up 3 times.

Go Yanks!

Magic number is 12, or 6 or 13.

Cbeck3 — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 06:02:53 -0000

The Yankee Magic Number vs Boston is 12. But there are 2 other important things to clinch.

First, with 17 games left, we need to clinch a playoff berth. Texas has 80 wins with 19 games left. They could win 99 by winning out (right). The Yanks have won 93, so magic number to clinch a playoff birth is 6. We could clinch our playoff berth as early as this weekend.

After we clinch playoffs, and win the east we need to have the best record. Magic number for best record v Angles is 13. (Maybe 12, depending on the tie breaker, I was lazy and didn't check it).

Notice that poor Boston is only 1 1/2 back of LAA for second best AL record (One in the loss column.

We are on a pace to win 104. winning 105 would just about clinch it all.

Go Yanks, keep on rolling.

Fall Spring Training Reprise (in late summer)

Cbeck3 — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 20:22:49 -0000

We have a very nice lead in the East. We have a nice lead for home field advantage. In addition to winning games we have an opportunity to accomplish some work and set up for the playoffs.

So, what are the objectives.

1) Starting pitching, We need to rebuild Joba's innings and confidence. I saw the post about getting through with 3 starters and I do not like it. Too many starts on short rest. No margin for injuries, etc. We need Joba!

2) Starting pitching. We need to get AJ going. IS his arm sore? Is he tipping pitches? Does he need rest? Do we have a coach who can brush up his mechanics.

3) Heal. Posada, Arod, Matsui

4) Select postseason roster. Questions, Gardener? Pena? How many pitchers? Who? Anything creative? You can use a different roster for different series. Do we do anything special for NL parks.

5) keep winning.

Girardi and Cashman have been real geniuses. Honestly. They've put up the best record in baseball without abusing anyone. They've protected Joba, perhaps overprotected but they've resisted the temptation to win at all costs and won anyway. The division is not won, but I really like our position.

Let's get set up to have the best run at the playoffs possibile.

So, do we have the East sewn up

Cbeck3 — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 21:51:52 -0000

There has been some loose talk in the last two days about having the East Sewn up. Well it didn't take last night's loss to make me think we do not.

I looked at the schedule. Here is my thinking.

We lead by 6 in the loss column. We have 6 left head to head with Boston. So, they cannot really be dead.

But here's some more. We have 21 home and 20 away. They have 20 home and 23 away. We have a small advantage, but it is small.

They have 2 less games against teams with winning records and 4 more games against teams with losing records. Tampa has 6 games with each of us while the Angles have 4 with us and 3 with them.

The lead is only six in the loss column, so look at all the scenarios. The conclusion is inevitable, we have work to do. We, in particular must win a bunch of games against the RS, Angles and Rays.

Just keep winning boys, I'm pulling for you.

Would you believe 105+ wins?

Cbeck3 — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 19:10:17 -0000

The Yanks slightly slow start is forgotten. At 72-43 they have the major's best record. That extends to a .626 winning percentage. .626 for the season will get you 101.5 wins. Love those 1/2 wins. But the squad seems to be just hitting it's stride. They might even go a few games better than 102. (I will bet they do. Takers?)

No wonder the brass is willing to take the foot off the gas enough to protect Joba's arm a little. I really hope that pays off for us in future years. He's seems to be the kind of guy who will blow hot and cold. His motion is still really violent. He is a huge powerful man.

But, I digress. How good do you guys think this squad is? Anyone think the wheels are likely to come off and they end up with less than 100 wins.

For perspective, the Yanks have won 100 9 times in the last 50 years. But they have exceeded 105 only twice in that period. 109 in 1961 and and the famous 114 in 1998.

This is a very good team and I'm loving it.

Poll

What do you think the Yanks will end up with for a final number of wins?

around 95, they'll be lucky to win the East.

8 votes

around 100, should get the best record.

71 votes

100 to 105, nice play continues

73 votes

105+, they stay hot and become a team to remember

32 votes

184 votes | Poll has closed

State of the Yanks Approaching the 3/4 post

Cbeck3 — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 18:01:57 -0000

The year is slipping past. We are about to reach the three quarter mark on the regular season. It has been a very eventful year, and I think it is worth organizing my thoughts on the mainnpoints.

How is the year going? We are the best team in baseball! Other than that, things are good.

First, how are the free agent additions playing. Great. Mark Texiera is playing like a first round Hall of Fame candidate. I had no idea this guy was this good. I do not think I've ever seen a better defensive first baseman. If you have, who was it? I have seen others about as good, no one clearly better. He's a fine hitter and switching is a plus.

CC and AJ have done what was expected. Many feared one or the other would not make it in NYC. Clearly they can pitch here. I hope they continue to enjoy good health. They haven't blown our doors off yet. That's fine, get hot in the fall please.

Andy Pettitte is having a bounce back year. Once again is a man to count on.

How about the home grown talent?

Cano is continuing to improve and is becoming a great second baseman. I do not understand why you, the serious fans do not love him. He's just a very talented hitter with a great glove and a plus arm. What Yankee was better there all around? You'll be watching black and white movies to find a candidate.

Melky Cabrera was, before last season began, being compared here and else where to a young Bernie Williams. He had a lost year and we didn't expect much from him this year. He has worked hard, shown improved attittude and skills. I now think he has a good chance to be a better player over his career than Bernie. But I am not one of those who would retire Bernie's number. He wasn't a great player. He had a very nice career.

Brett Gardener started the year as someone who we hope would hold the fort until we got someone better. That someone might or might not be Austin Jackson. He has adapted to big league pitching and proved himself to be a plus defender in CF. His development was a surprise and a major plus for the team going forward. I'd love to see him in pinstripes for a long time. He pushes Melky to right in my idea of the future.

More after the jump.

We also saw very good performance from Ramiro Pena and Frank Cervelli. They have more to prove, because their good performances are now filed under "small sample size." But last winter I said we needed to bring in a catcher and a future shortstop, because I didn't think we had either in the system. My opinion has been revised.

How about the young arms. In this group I put Joba, Phil Hughes, Phil Coke, Al Aceves, Dave Robertson and Mark Melancon. These guys have all made nice to very nice progress this year. I can now say all but Melacon are established big league pitchers. None of them are prospects anymore. Joba and Hughes have the potential to be great. Aceves is very good, I wonder how good. I think he's better than he gets credit for.

I hope Ian Kennedy is not leaving us. We have two shoes to drop. Two of the Yankees trades have included a "player to be named later."

Add to this good news the fact that Jeter and Damon are having better years than I expected.

From my point of view our biggest downside is having to watch Posada flail at AJ's pitches. How did we get to this point? I know Jorge is slipping. I know AJ is hard to catch. But really, this is very hard to watch. I wonder if Posada will retire?

The catcher position is our only real hole going forward from the year.

I estimate the probability the Yankees can will the WS is up to between .25 and .30. This is up from .125 coming out of Spring Training.

Life is good. I can't even find the energy to complain about the new stadium, other than to say it's a big disappointment to me.

OK time for McGuire to go into the Hall

Cbeck3 — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 21:47:43 -0000

Logic: For a period of time baseall decided to look the other way and let people cheat. So many people cheated that it is probable that a team could not win without cheaters. Pitchers cheated, hitters cheated. A whole era was marked.

There are a number of people of whom we can say, "He took PEDs". But of whom can we say, "He was clean!"? I'd claim that ,in this era, no one.

Sad, sad, sad.

I'd been saying that Mitchel covered up for the RS. Now I'm proven right and I regret it.

Amp up the testing! Amp up the punishments!

Let the past sleep.

Clean up the future. Look forward.

bah, humbug.