SB Nation User Blog: Charlie Scrabbles

Game 138: Thread 2, The Legend of Curly's Gold

Charlie Scrabbles — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 00:25:13 -0000

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new thread.

The Case For Edwin Encarnacion

Charlie Scrabbles — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 01:31:51 -0000

since Adam Dunn saddled up and rode west, it seems the ire of frustrated Reds fans has fallen upon the young shoulders of Edwin Encarnacion. he is mired in a miserable slump, hitting .185/.250/.370 over the last month. this frustration began to boil over last night with the safety squeeze play, which mostly wasnt his fault anyway.

many solutions have been proposed for this situation. some just want to trade him, others want to move him to LF or 1B, and still others would probably prefer to see him tossed off the bridge. "his defense hasnt improved!" "he isnt clutch!" "we need a right-handed bat to anchor this lineup, and Eddie just isnt cutting it!"

via mlb.mlb.com

some of the allegations leveled against him are unwarranted, some are pretty well dead on. he is still a big question mark over at the hot corner (even though that was all Bako's fault last night) and he is a pretty streaky hitter (evidenced by his .620 OPS over the last month after a few months of a .900 OPS prior).

with a number of infield options coming through the reds minor leagues like Frazier and Fransisco and guys like Rosales and Keppinger already in the majors, Eddie could have some competition for his job if the front office sees to it. Eddie was named by Walt Jocketty a few months ago as one of 5 "untouchables", but im not so sure that confidence will survive the season.

with the Reds in Chicago and the Cubs sitting proudly in first place, it got me thinking about what they have that we dont.

via i.a.cnn.net

Aramis Ramirez is one of the top third basemen in the National League, posting better than a 125 OPS+ the past 5 seasons. while he may not be a gold glover, he's no slouch with the leather either. the comparison between Encarnacion and Ramirez has been made before, as both were very young and still very raw when they came up to the bigs.

Ramirez debuted in that magic summer of '98 for the Pirates and was underwhelming as a 20 year old. for the next three seasons, in varying amounts of playing time, Ramirez never posted an OPS over .700. he broke out as a 23 year old in '01 with a line of .300/.350/.536 in 603 ABs. his defense was shaky, but nevertheless the Pirates saw him as a cornerstone of the organization.

but he could not shake that "inconsistent" label. his next season, still only a 24 year old, he was ghost. with an OPS+ of 72, he was a huge disappointment to a Pirates franchise embittered over his unfulfilled promise. his defense was not improving either, leading some in the Steel City to call him a fluke.

in '03 as a 25 year old, Ramirez played in 96 games for the Pirates with a league average OPS and below average defense before they finally gave up on him and traded him to Chicago for what amounted to be a small hill of beans.

then something happened. in '04 everything came together for him. he became the Aramis Ramirez he was supposed to become in Pittsburgh, the one we have all grown to hate. that season, his age 26 season, he began a string of 5 consecutive seasons with an OPS+ over 125. he hit more home runs, struck out less, walked more, and played a solid defense.

Edwin Encarnacion is just 25 this year. he has been around since '05 when he was a 22 year old, but most will say he has had ample opportunity to improve upon his game. last year he hit .289/.356/.438, and played markedly better defense after a May demotion to AAA. it appeared that Eddie was going to be the right handed bat this team so sorely needed in the middle of the order. but this year, his defense is still shaky, if not bad, and his batting average has dropped significantly. he's hit a career high 22 homers this year, but he's also on pace for a career high in strikeouts, leading some to call for a trade.

the stories of these two players is very similar. both were rushed to the majors. both had "breakout" years followed by disappointment. both have struggled with defense and consistent hitting. the difference is, the Pirates gave up on Ramirez too early, and the Reds still have a choice. we are a few years from competing, according to Bob and Walt's letter. let's hope the Reds have the patience with Eddie that the Pirates lacked with Ramirez. lets hope Eddie is still around in 2010 as the Reds run for the pennant, mashing home runs, striking fear into the hearts of NL Central pitchers, and drawing favorable comparisons to the Cubs anchor at the hot corner.

"The Dayton Game"

Charlie Scrabbles — Fri, 30 May 2008 22:15:05 -0000

Joe Posnanski has a new piece up on his blog that is worth a read, and not just for his wit and penmanship.

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/05/30/the-dayton-game/

for those of us who arent exactly well-learned in the field of baseball scouting and dont feel like reading the Poz's article (ingrates), the 5 tools that scouts rate players on are power, speed, hitting, defense, and arm strength. these tools are rated on a scale of 20-80, 20 being laughable and 80 being awe-inspiring. Poz looks at the Royals roster and lists the players who rate a 60 or better in any one of these tools, and calls this little exercise "The Dayton Game", after Royals GM Dayton Moore. so i started playing "The Dayton Game" with our current Reds roster. i went down the 25-man roster and did a quick-and-dirty evaluation of each player's tools (read: its friday evening and im at work 'til 7, so i needed something to kill the time because i already read the new issue of The Economist from cover to cover. sure, i could go over those non-returnable stock with wholesale value work lists, but F that). I dont think it would surprise anyone that the results are really kinda bleh. but i thought it would be fun to start up the conversation. so here we go:

Brandon Phillips - Defense
Adam Dunn - Power

those are the only ones im really comfortable listing without hesitation. pretty bleak, eh? especially considering we would also have had Corey Patterson on here for his defense if he hadnt just been demoted. but there are plenty of other dudes' tools (tee hee) worthy of consideration. that list is as follows:

Dave Ross - Arm
Paul Janish - Defense
Brandon Phillips - Speed
Jay Bruce - Hitting, Power, Defense
Joey Votto - Hitting, Power
Ryan Freel - Speed

i hesitate on these for various reasons. Bruce, Votto, and Janish are just too young yet to really know. i know their minor league accomplishments would certainly justify inclusion, which is why i even included them on the "maybe list". but im talking about major league ready-and-proven tools. i dont think real scouting is done that way, but who cares. this is my game. well, not really, because it was Joe's idea. but shut up anyway.

Phillips' speed and Ross' arm are borderline. we all know Phillips is a 30 steals kinda guy, but does that rate as a 60 on the scale? i really dont know, but i suspect not. i mean, he certainly doesnt have the speed of someone like Jose Reyes, but im not sure how much slower he really is than Jose. same goes for Ross' arm. he guns down more would-be basestealers than most catchers, but im just not familiar enough with the system to make a reasoned judgment. Freel is a special case. dude seems like he can burn, but he does it so stupidly, both on the basepaths and in the outfield, that i felt like mentioning his name just because of the potential. but he's like 31, so im guessing he'll never learn. and he'll fall apart here real soon. oh well.

so basically my aim in all this is to raise more questions than anything else. is there anyone you think im leaving out? anyone you see on the list that furrows your eyebrows? do you think its sanctimonious of me to make a list here without including "boobs" as a possibility?

Homer Bailey and pitch counts

Charlie Scrabbles — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 22:00:22 -0000

I just caught this article on SI from Tom Verducci.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/tom_verducci/02/05/verducci.YAE/index.html

and it got me thinking about our boy Homer. I did some quick research and figured up that Bailey only threw 120 innings or so last year (this does not include the extended spring training rehab he did). his total the previous year was 138. so with Verducci's 30 innings rule in hand we can figure on about 170 innings from Homer this year without really risking the still very young man's health. I have heard no mention of this in regards to Homer so far this year and as im writing this im getting increasingly worried. will Wayner and Dusty handle his workload properly? I get the feeling he is going to throw far more than 170 innings this year. i envision a tight NL central/wildcard race where the sterling services of a fatigued Homer Bailey will be needed to thrust us towards the postseason. and that is scaring me. it seems the organizational feeling going into this season is that Homer has earned his spot in the rotation and should be a-rarin' to go. this is evident by his absence from any winter league festivities. ive heard no murmurings of taking care of his workload. should we be worried about this? or should we wait until July to worry?

Daddy Day Camp coming to DVD

Charlie Scrabbles — Tue, 29 Jan 2008 22:16:39 -0000

I love Cuba Gooding and Ive waited for this for a long time.

oh and speaking of waiting for a long time, some guy was trade to the Mets.

mlbtraderumors.com says that the Santana saga is finally over. the Mets won with the offer that was reported 2 months ago. here's what they said over there:

"Bob Nightengale of USA Today says an agreement to trade Santana to the Mets has been reached. They'll send Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey to the Twins. The Mets still have to work out a six or seven year extension for Santana, according to Nightengale. If this baby reaches its true conclusion we'll sit down and analyze."

I dont know about you guys, but Im glad I can finally sleep again.

Jim Callis on EV

Charlie Scrabbles — Tue, 08 Jan 2008 22:25:53 -0000

"Is it fair to assume that Edinson Volquez (if he still qualified as a prospect) wouldn't have been ranked among the Reds' Big Four prospects (Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto) but ahead of Drew Stubbs? Would Volquez be a viable candidate for the Top 100 Prospects list?

Erick Metzger
Columbus, Ohio
Volquez has exceeded 50 major league innings, so he's no longer a prospect in our book. He definitely wouldn't have ranked ahead of Bruce, Bailey, Votto or Cueto, arguably the best foursome of prospects in any farm system right now. He probably would have settled in at No. 5, ahead of Stubbs, though I'm not the biggest Volquez fan in the world. I wouldn't have advocated him making the Top 100.

Volquez throws hard and has a nice changeup, but he never has shown a reliable curveball in the big leagues and his control and command always have been spotty. I see him more as a classic tease, a guy who can light up radar guns but never will be the frontline starter his velocity suggests he might become.

Trading Josh Hamilton to get Volquez made sense for the Reds, however. They had the second-worst ERA in the National League last year and more outfielders than they knew what to do with. Now Cincinnati has an opening for Bruce to play in the majors and another candidate for its rotation.

Considering that the Rangers have been on a perpetual search for pitching, however, shouldn't it tell us something that they were willing to part with Volquez?"

here's the link to the whole piece.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/askba/265412.html

I think we've all said the same thing to ourselves about EV since the trade, but I'm certainly not amused by Callis' pessimism. I'm excited to see the kid throw, and I think he will succeed in the NL central. To what extent is obviously the question.

His bit about how he stacks up against the Big 4 is interesting, as I'm sure we all remember the quote from Krivsky about valuing EV the same as Homer

Brenly interested in Reds manager vacancy?

Charlie Scrabbles — Wed, 04 Jul 2007 21:17:54 -0000

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070704&content_id=2066806&vkey=news_ml b&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

reds.com says brenly would be willing to listen if Wayner calls him up to talk about the manager vacancy. its been 3 years since he left arizona, and alls i remember about his tenure there is that he won in '01 with a fat payroll and a couple cy young pitchers. would he be a good fit in cincy?

The Trials and Tribulations of Josh Hamilton

Charlie Scrabbles — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 02:37:53 -0000

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/john_donovan/06/21/hamilton.reds/index.html

SI's john donovan just did a piece on josh hamilton and his life story. its decent schmaltzy sports journalism, the kind of thing you expect from SI. but nevertheless, it is still a nice, heartwarming story. i dont really know if it warrants a diary piece, but what the heck. hamilton is a nice guy and i think we should talk about that as much as possible. beats more adam dunn trade rumors.