SB Nation User Blog: Charlie Scrabbles

Red Reposter - Is Jocketty the Best GM in the Central?

Charlie Scrabbles — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:14:45 -0000

Thank a few veterans today.

The Arizona Fall League Rising Stars game can be seen here
If you are like me and dont get MLB Network, this is your chance to catch Chris Heisey, Yonder Alonso, and Mike Leake tear it up against their elite prospect peers. Thanks to Sharks for the heads-up in the FanShots.
The Crawfish Boxes takes a look at the GMs of the NL Central
Here's what they say about our own Walt Jocketty:

"The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot."

Check out the full article to see how Jocko compares to the other GMs in the NL Central.

Fay Q and A
"Q, from Ice82: John, I have a question about Zack Cozart as he does not appear to be on the radar right now. I could not help but notice that he was on the Redsfest roster which was a little surprising. After watching him for an entire season at Carolina, he seemingly has good range. He also showed some pop in his bat with 10 homers at a stadium in Zebulon that is a big home run park. With the questions marks surrounding Janish, is Cozart going to get a good look during spring training? Are the Reds content to potentially limp through 2010 to get to Cozart?

A: I think he’ll be in the mix if the Reds don’t add a shortstop. He’s hitting well in the Arizona Fall League (.340/.393/.560). I think Janish is the favorite now. But Cozart could play his way into the picture with a good spring. The Reds think he has more potential as a hitter. The Redsfest invitation doesn’t mean anything. A lot of minor leaguers are there every year."

Cozart skipped Sarasota and went straight from Dayton to Carolina this past season and he didnt disappoint. He put up a .750 OPS and played above average SS. I'm sure the Reds will look at him in Spring Training, but there is really no way he starts the year as the Reds' starting SS. That might be asking a bit too much.

Redleg Nation Radio talks with Reds' 4th round draft choice Mark Fleury
I thought Fleury was an inspired pick back in June, but his debut was very unlucky. He managed a .676 OPS in 128 ABs at Billings, but his BABIP was a putrid .222. Adjusting for luck, his OPS would be over .900. Look for him to turn some heads in Dayton next season.

The Florida State League approved the sale of the Sarasota team
The Pirates bought the team and are moving it up the street a piece to Bradenton. Thus ends the Reds affiliation with the city of Sarasota, where they had trained since 1998.

Project Prospect continues their top 15 lists with corner outfielders
and the Reds' Chris Heisey shows up at #9 on the list. I'm a bit surprised, as I think of him as more of a CF. Either way, PP says he was "born to hit line drives", which sounds good to me. He blasted AFL pitching, tuning them in to 1.180 OPS on his radio dial. Classic rock alllllllllll day. Thanks to Doug for pointing these out.

Shawn over at the Reds FanHuddle blog has been doing '09 reviews for every Reds' player
Be sure to check them all out if your looking for a good overview. Here's a snippet of his latest installment, Willy Taveras:

"Taveras was signed by Cincinnati to a two-year deal for $2.5 million in 2009 and $4 million in 2010. Taveras was promoted as the centerpiece of the Reds’ switch from a plodding power team lead by Griffey and Dunn to a speedy, defense-oriented outfit. The dash of Taveras at the top of the order, plus his running down balls in center field, would be the key to the new-look Cincinnati club. Taveras promised lots of bunting for base hits and a run at 100 steals.

The reality was something less spectacular. Taveras got off to a slow start, had a hot streak from the end of April to the middle of May, collapsed again, and spent much of the second half on the disabled list. By the end of the season, the center field job had been handed to rookie Drew Stubbs. The future of Taveras in Cincinnati is very much in doubt."

The Reds are going to need a catcher next year to pair with Ryan Hanigan
but Jack Moore at FanGraphs says their just aint much out there. He says Gregg Zaun.com could be the best available, and relatively cheaply.

Red Reposter - How Much Do You Want Ramon Hernandez Back?

Charlie Scrabbles — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 01:38:19 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

Ramon Hernandez poses with World Series Champion New York Yankee Melky Cabrera. Congratulations BubbaFan!

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THT is doing a series of player profiles for their fantasy department
and here they take a look at Jay Bruce. It does a terrific job of breaking down his '09 season, and says the future is very, very bright for him. To wit:

"While at first glance, Jay Bruce's 2009 season seems like a step back in his development, he actually made a number of significant improvements that will progress his career. He improved quite significantly in his strike zone judgment and selectivity, while also improving his fly ball tendencies. While wrist issues are always problematic for a hitter, he seems to have put these concerns to rest with a strong September. For 2010, expect a very different Jay Bruce, one who finally lives up to his No. 1 prospect billing. A .275-.285 average with 30 home runs doesn't seem out of the question. If he is able to maintain his plate discipline gains, he could post an OPS in the .900s as well, with the high .900s a possibility and 1.000—while a reach—not out of the question."
The Fay says the Reds are talking to Ramon Hernandez about his contract
They hold an $8.5 mil option for next season, which should be declined. They are talking to him about possibly re-working the deal so that he can come back at a reduced rate. I would be ok with him coming back under the right conditions, like if they are paying him $2 mil and he doesnt play more than Ryan Hanigan does. I doubt either of those conditions would be met though. Let us know what you think in the poll below.

The Fay says Nick Masset and Jared Burton are eligible for arbitration this winter as Super-Twos
Jonny Gomes, Laynce Nix, and Corky Miller are also arb eligible. Fay says Masset and Burton are "locks" to be offered arbitration, and Gomes is iffy. Micah Owings just missed Super Two status by a few games.

The Fay has been doing Q's and A's for the past week or so
and they make for good reading. Here's another sample:

"Question, from Ethan: 1) Do you think that the Reds will offer Joey Votto a long-term contract in the up-coming years, or do you think they want to wait and see if his depression/anxiety attacks have cleared up before they offer him the big money? And if they do offer one, How much do you think he would command and for how many years?

A: I think they will try to lock him up once he’s ready for arbitration. The problems seem to be behind him, but we’ll have a better idea after this year. As far as money, I would think it would along the lines of Brandon Phillips’ 4-year, $27 million deal."

Sheldon is fielding questions as well
I wont repeat any here, but they mostly cover who can be traded to make payroll space and the emergence of young players. And Sheldon is against expanded replay for baseball. He must be dumb or something.

FanGraphs takes a look at the new Bill James projections for 2010
and picks out a few intriguing projections for guys who have yet to make their MLB debuts. They spotlight one Todd Frazier, who James projects to hit .278/.336/.471. That .800+ OPS is pretty eye-popping for a rookie infielder. I think it's pretty safe to assume that Frazier will not see much time in the bigs next season though. If (when) Rolen gets injured I think El Nino Destructor Juan Francisco will be his stand-in at 3B. A mid-season trade of Brandon Phillips could work in his favor though.

MiLB.com is doing a series titled "Path to the Pros"
They are retelling the stories of how some of today's stars came up through the minors. They havent done the feature for the Reds yet, but former Red Reporter Favorite Adam Dunn is profiled for the Nationals. It's an incredibly interesting read. Here's a snippet:

"In the years I've managed in Double-A, you can name the guys on one hand who've come to Double-A and taken off," (Phillip) Wellman said. "Even some of the brightest prospects seem to struggle at first and they come out OK, but Dunn was one that never did that. He came from low-A and he didn't miss a beat."

It also says that Dunn was offered the chance to come up to the big league club in '99 in the heat of the playoff race, but he turned it down because he felt he wasnt ready and it would disrespect the players who had been around and put in more time than he had. I had never heard that story before. HT to RLN for this one and the Bruce one.

Poll

What would you do with Ramon Hernandez?

Red Reposter - Sorry I Haven't Done One of These in a While, but My Hamstring Has Been Sore

Charlie Scrabbles — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:55:09 -0000

by Keith Srakocic - AP

Brandon Phillips has been one of the best defenders in the league over the past 3 seasons, and he's looked mighty handsome doing it.

View full size photo »

The Fay has more Q's and A's
"Q, from CSA: If the Reds are so poor, why did they spend $10 million on a new scoreboard and another $10 million on the worst available manager? Not to mention all that money on Scot Rolen (that was a good deal BTW). Not to mention Willy Tavaras.

A: The hope is that the new scoreboard will pay for itself through increased advertising at the stadium. Which is a nice theory, but you’ve got to draw fans to keep rates up. Only 26 managers in the history of the game have won more games that Dusty Baker. Given the injuries and payroll, 78-84 was pretty good this year. Rolen’s salary was paid by Toronto this year. And they made a huge mistake with Taveras. But he only made $2 million this year."

I have no idea how this injury excuse has gotten any traction as a plausible reason why this team failed this past season. I would like someone, anyone, to make a good argument that this team lost because of injuries. Please.
RedsFest tickets went on sale yesterday
$15 for adults and $7 for the kiddos. "Over 50 current and former Reds players are expected to attend including Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Bronson Arroyo, Dusty Baker and 2010 Reds Hall of Fame inductees Chris Sabo and Pedro Borbon. In honor of the recent RR Monday Morning Quiz, a special 20th anniversary tribute to the 1990 World Series Champions will include Sabo, Joe Oliver, Eric Davis, Ron Oester, Hal Morris, skipper Lou Piniella and many more."
Hall o' Famer Hal says Dick Pole was a victim of soap opera-level revenge and acrimony
"One problem with the Reds is that CEO Bob Castellini listens to too many people and some of them have axes to grind or let personalities sway their opinions. One of them got Castellini’s ear about Pole and Pole was axed (pole-axed?). A manager and a coach is only as good as his players/pitchers and I saw improvement from the Reds pitching staff under Pole."
Project Prospect is ranking the best prospects by position in the minors
and Todd Frazier is the top 2B. They say he lacks the range to be a great defender, but his bat could more than carry him. I think his bat is about average as a LF, but if he can hold his own as a 2B he could be something special. If only our incumbent 2B could play SS...

Mike Leake and Zach Stewart (cough) make the pitcher's list, Yonder Alonso is 2nd on the 1B list, and Juan Francisco is 13th on the 3B list. Hat tip to RML.
The Pirates traded for displaced Rays 2B Akinori Iwamura
or as Tim McCarver knows him, "Aka...Akamura". Iwamura was hurt most of this season and lost his job to Ben Zobrist. This deal reminds me a lot of the Reds' deal for Scott Rolen, accept that I like this for the Buccos. Neither team is close to playoff contention, both of the players are in the last year of their contract, and both players are still valuable relative to their contracts.

The key differences are that the Pirates only gave up Jesse Chavez, a 26-year-old relief prospect (Josh Roenicke?), and they have plenty of payroll space left after adding his contract (his option, which the Pirates still have to pick up, is worth $4.85 mil, which will make him the highest-paid Pirate!!). Iwamura isnt going to make the difference for the Pirates, but he'll help them take the next step to respectability.

And when you consider that Iwamura is basically the same player as Freddy Sanchez, whom they traded for a good pitching prospect in Tim Alderson, and is signed for 1/3 the money that Sanchez is, then this is really quite a move for the Pirates. I cant believe I'm saying this, but I'm kinda jealous.
FanGraphs is working on putting together 3-year UZR leaderboards and loserboards
and Brandon Phillips narrowly misses making the "best" list, falling just outside the top 5. We'll see the top and bottom 5's over the next few days.
It’s the Hardball Times 2010 Annual
I've never bought the THT Annual, but I'm thinking about it this year. It's $21.95, so it's pretty reasonably priced. Has anyone picked up one of these? Is it a good investment?

Red Reposter - Are Walt and Dusty Seriously Considering Willy Taveras for CF Next Season?

Charlie Scrabbles — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 16:25:18 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

There seems to be a high number of pictures in SBNation's AP photos bank of Dusty defending Willy T. Here is one of them.

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The Fay answers some reader questions
Question from Steve: My question is about the Reds’ current view of Willy Taveras. Do you think they will let him come to spring training and try to win the job from Drew Stubbs and Chris Dickerson, or do you think the Reds will try to move him in the offseason? Do you perceive a split between the way Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty view Taveras? My sense, from afar, is that as long as WT is around, Baker will play him too much. I’m not naive in thinking the Reds could get anything back for Taveras. They would have to trade him, along with paying part of his salary to interest any team. But my feeling (hope) is that is what they will do, just to take the controversy and temptation away.
Answer: I think Taveras was Jocketty’s guy. But Baker loves the idea of speed at the top of lineup. I don’t think anyone thought Taveras would hit as little as he did or be as rough defensively. I think they would trade in a second if they could. But his $4 million salary makes that difficult. The center field job is Drew Stubbs’ to lose. The problem with Taveras is he doesn’t fit as a bench player. He has no power. He only plays center. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him designated for assignment.

So Fay thinks the T-Virus could be DFA'd. While that is the logical course of action, and most of us have hopefully forgotten all about him already because of Drew Stubbs and Chris Dickerson, he is still on the roster and is being paid $4 mil next season. I'm not sayin' anything, I'm just sayin'...
MLBTradeRumors has been doing a "Trades Of The Decade" series
and they reviewed the Griffey Trade a few days ago. I'm not going to go back into it because we all know everything about it, but Nick Masset is mentioned as a possible silver lining, described as a "closer of the future". It's not as thrilling as a few World Series', but I suppose I'll take it.
Doug Gray has been running down his top-40 prospects list this week
I dont think anyone will be surprised to know that Yonder Alonso headlines the list. Check out 11-20, 21-30, and 31-40. We here at RR will be doing our own top prospects list again this winter, so stay tuned.
Bill at RLN asks if Hal McRae, the recently ousted hitting coach for the Cards, would be an upgrade over Brook Jacoby
I think the real problem with the offense is lack-of-talent, but it certainly couldnt hurt to have a hitting coach who preaches patience. I dont think McRae or Jacoby are that guy.
The Stadium Journey Blog visited GABP
And he had a good time. "Great American Ball Park is a fabulous place to watch a baseball game. There are comfortable seats angled toward home plate, various standing areas with a perfect view of the field and plenty of attractions that will catch your eye. If you get the chance, be sure to visit home of the Cincinnati Reds. You won’t be disappointed." There is a full breakdown and write-up of the whole stadium experience, so be sure to check it out.
Spring Training tickets are available for the Reds' inaugural season in Goodyear, AZ
Single game tickets are not available, but you can order 15 or 30-game packages. You can even get a mixed package of Reds and Indians games, which is pretty neat.
Rob Neyer says Ryan Howard is basically an equal player to...Shin-Soo Choo?
I know all abouts Choo, who was the MVP of my fantasy team this year. But Howard won an NL MVP!! He's led the NL in RBIs 3 of the past 4 seasons!! Neyer is ever the cantankerous curmudgeon, no?

Can Drew Stubbs be as Good as Joey Votto?

Charlie Scrabbles — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 15:37:19 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

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We all know Joey Votto was by far the best player on the Reds this past season. He single-handedly carried the offense on his broad and capable shoulders. Some say he is more than a man but less than a god, like some kind of demi-god, or archangel, or X-man. He posted an impressive 4.4 WAR according to FanGraphs. That is solid All-Star-level production. Joey Votto is good at baseball. But is he really the best player on the team? Consider the following:

Drew Stubbs came up in mid-August and saw action in just 42 games. He looked all right at the plate, holding his own and posting a slash line of .267/.323/.439. That OPS of .762 is nearly identical to his career minor league OPS of .765. Of course, he hit for more power and got on base less (his career minor league line is .269/.364/.401), but considering the small sample size it's still a pretty accurate reflection of the skill set he showed in the minors. This isnt a wild aberration like Chris Dickerson's debut in '08, and I think it is totally reasonable to believe he can continue to hit like a league-average hitter. His solid walk rate (he's never had an OBP lower than .353 at any minor-league level), decent-but-not-shabby ISO (steadily around .150), steady K-rates, and luminous BABIP rates (kid gets a ton of infield hits) scream "consistent" to me. He is precisely the kind of hitter whose minor league numbers translate well to the majors.

His early projections for next year aren't as optimistic about his future performance though. ZiPS sees him posting a measly .653 OPS for next season. As we talked about a few days ago, Bill James projects him much better, foreseeing a .726 OPS. Not as good as his small-sample-sized performance from the end of '09, but not as Taverasian as ZiPS thinks. Now, normally I trust these advanced projection systems more than I trust my gut, but on this one I think they are missing the mark. I think, for the reasons stated above, Stubbs is far more likely to OPS around .750 than .650.

So if Stubbs hits like a league-average hitter, then how can he be as good as Joey Votto, the Joey Votto who OPS'd .981, posted a .418 wOBA, and stole my heart?

Checking the WAR leaderboards over at FanGraphs, one particular player really caught my eye. He was the most valuable center fielder in the Major Leagues last year. He's not Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson, Torii Hunter, or Matt Kemp. He's not Jacoby Ellsbury, Shane Victorino, or B.J. Upton. He's Franklin Gutierrez, and he's the best gloveman in the league.

Gutierrez OPS'd .764 last season, his first as a Mariner. He was a tick above league-average with the bat, accumulating 6.3 BRAR. But boy, he was a '64 Fender Stratocaster in classic white with triple single-coil pickups and a wammy bar in the field. He posted 28.5 FRAR in 153 games, the best mark in all of baseball at any position. This was good for 5.8 total WAR.

Stubbs was nearly equal to Gutierrez with the glove last season, albeit in a small sample size. Stubbs posted a UZR of 7.7 in just 42 games, which extrapolates into a UZR/150 of 22.3. Of course, it is not a foregone conclusion that Stubbs can keep up that level of glovesmanship over a full season. But all the scouting reports say that he can. Since he was drafted in '06 (ahead of Tim Lincecum), he's been heralded as a future gold-glover. It is not good science to take such a small sample and use it as a representative sample, but in this case I think Stubbs really is that good. His minor league TotalZone numbers think so (found at minorleaguesplits), the scouts think so, and so I think so.

So Gutierrez had the best season according to WAR of any center fielder in the league last season, and his game is nearly identical to that of Drew Stubbs. A league-average bat and an elite glove at a premium position makes for a very valuable player.

So what is the takeaway from all this? At the very least, we can see how there is much, much more to winning baseball games than just hitting the ball with the bat. Votto is an elite hitter, but he plays a weak defensive position and is merely average there in comparison to his peers. Stubbs is the exact opposite of Votto, with an average bat and an elite glove. I'm not ready to seriously consider Stubbs to be the same caliber of player that Votto is (though it makes for a hooky title), but I can envision a future, as early as next season, where this is the case.

Red Reposter - Should the Reds Trade Coco? Can They?

Charlie Scrabbles — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 11:38:55 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Bryan Price is your new pitching coach. I dont have any wiener jokes.

Browse more photos »

Hall o' Famer Hal doesnt seem tremendously excited that the Reds hired Bryan Price to be the new pitching coach
He says he would have preferred Ted Power, who could jump ship for a better job in another organization, Mario Soto, who likely didnt want the job anyway, or former Reds pitching coach Don Gullett. Price seems like a solid pick to me though.
The Reds held the grand opening of their new spring training complex in Goodyear, AZ on Saturday
and Jim Misudek as the pictures to prove it
Jim also tells us Mike Lincoln pitched in the final game of the instructional league
No matter what you think about how overpaid he is, we all should tip our caps to this guy. After all the parts of his body he's had replaced over the years he's practically a Terminator.
Here's a sample from this week's "Ask Hal"
Q If the Reds really are cash-strapped, as you wrote, do you think they could trade Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo or Francisco Cordero? A team in the Reds’ situation can’t afford that kind of cash outlay for a closer, can they? — Paul, Dayton
A I’d trade Cordero in an eye flick and help him pack. Saves are the most overrated statistic in baseball. Most mean nothing. Get three outs in mostly easy situations and, wham, another save. Can the Reds afford to pay Cordero $25 million over the next two years while they try to build a competitive team? Don’t think so. Coco needs to go-go.

I would love to see Coco moved this winter, but I cant envision a situation where it could happen. It would take a good team needing an upgrade at closer and the money and penchant to overpay for it. The Phillies will probably look around after the year that Brad Lidge had, but Lidge will make just as much as Coco the next two years, and they also have significant monies tied into JC Romero and Ryan Madsen. So if they look for an upgrade, it will probably be a cheap one.

The Cubs and Angels could both be looking for new closers this winter as well. But even in the unlikely event that a partner is found, I wouldnt expect anything of intrigue to be coming back. The Reds need to free up the money and shouldnt kill a deal over a few middling prospects.
In minor trade matters
the Reds finalized the David Weathers trade last week. They got an undisclosed amount of cash. Thus unceremoniously ends an era in Cincinnati. Godspeed Stormy!
Red Reposter NEWS FROM HELL
As of Friday morning, the Yankees had yet to sell all of the tickets available for Game 1 against the Angels. I couldnt track down whether they eventually did or not, but it is really a black eye on the face of The Greatest Franchise in the World. The House That Caligula Built isnt looking too good, is it?
Speaking of the Yankees
Matt Carruth at FanGraphs says A-Rod is every bit the clutch performer that Mr. November is, and all his computer friends can prove it.

Red Reposter - The Search Begins for a New Pitching Coach

Charlie Scrabbles — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 02:16:37 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

Hutch Award Nominee and Red Reporter Idol, Jonny Lee Gomes.

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Hall o' Famer Hal thinks the LaRussa and Duncan rumors are crazy
In short, he says St Louis is too good and Cincinnati too bad a situation for it to happen. No way LaRussa (and by extension, Duncan) jumps from a division-winner to the Reds. He then casts his vote for Bats' pitching coach Ted Power. He says guys love him and unless he's promoted, he'll go somewhere else. So I guess my vote goes to Power as well. He's been getting terrific high praise, and if it's true that he will bolt unless he gets the job then I dont think it's much of a choice.
Walt Jocketty is in Goodyear, AZ at the new Spring Training complex
and is set to do interviews for the vacant pitching coach position. Sheldon lists all the usual suspects (Dave Duncan Sheik (because "Donuts" was too obvious), Ted "I Have the" Power, Mario "I Dont Like Sunny D, Pass Me a Grape" Soto), but he also throws out a few new names like former Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson and minor league pitching coordinator Mack Jenkins.
Jim Misudek at the Reds Internal Affairs blog says Jonny Gomes has been nominated for the Hutch Award
"The Hutch Award is given annually to the major league player who best exemplifies the honor, courage and dedication of renowned baseball player and manager Fred Hutchinson ("Hutch"). Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center -- which was named in Hutch's honor by his brother Dr. Bill Hutchinson, a surgeon, after Fred succumbed to cancer at age 45 -- is an independent, nonprofit research institution dedicated to the understanding, treatment and prevention of cancer and related diseases." I know this sounds weird, but beating cancer sounds just like something Jonny Gomes would do.
Reds Assistant Media Director Jamie Ramsey has a blog
"The goal of this blog is to give you an entertaining look into what goes on with the Cincinnati Reds, from an "insider's perspective." As an assistant director of media relations, I'm around every level of Reds employee here at the ballpark, from the front office to the players to the ticket takers and ushers. In my opinion, each is as interesting as the next and I plan on proving it by introducing these people to you." Welcome to the blogosphere Jamie!
MLBTradeRumors continued their Offseason Outlook series with a look at our Reds
Tim thinks Jonny Gomes makes too much sense to non-tender, Francisco Cordero is the most logical trade candidate, and Willy Taveras and Mike Lincoln were mistakes. Nothing new really, but still a nice overview.
Marc Hulet at FanGraphs has a quick review of the Reds minor league system
and he thinks Matt Maloney is on the up-swing, Devin Mesoraco could be a bust, and Juan Carlos Sulbaran could turn some heads next year.
OMGreds offers up a YouTube video of one of the last games at Crosley Field
The old Kodak 8mm film is always really cool-looking, even if I cant help but anticipate the president getting shot.
Diamond Hoggers asks, "When was the last time you enjoyed Cracker Jacks at the ballpark?"
I got some Cracker Jack at a Clippers/Bats game this summer and it was childhood-destroyingly disappointing. It was far too expensive, which wasnt surprising, but then there were no peanuts in the bag. None. Just a few stale puffs of tasteless popcorn. And the free prize was so exciting I forgot it in my seat after the game.

Red Reposter - Could Dusty Baker be Hitting His Namesake Trail?

Charlie Scrabbles — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 15:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Could Dusty be the next victim of Banana Bob's storied impatience?

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I think most of us figured it was a foregone conclusion that Dusty Baker would be back with the team next year
But there are rumblings that Banana Bob could ditch him to complete his secret master plan of recreating the Reds in the image of the early-2000's Cardinals. Both Tony LaRussa and Baker are known quantities here, so I'm sure we all have an opinion one way or another. If given the choice, which one would you take?
The Fay doesnt see the Reds increasing payroll next year
and he actually expects them to decrease payroll, closer to $65 mil than $70 mil. He also says increasing payroll would likely do little good, as most good players are searching for multi-year deals. So a temporary increase wouldnt help much.
Hall o' Famer Hal says he's come to an agreement with the DDN
and he'll stay on as a freelance writer. He'll keep writing his blog "The Real McCoy" and doing his weekly "Ask Hal" segments. This is great news. He wont be following the beat, but he'll still be offering daily columns. This could be advantageous for us the readers, as he may be able to more freely speak his mind since he wont be so beholden to the team for access. We've certainly seen more of that since his retirement announcement. Congratulations Hal, and thanks for sticking around!
Speaking of Ask Hal
Here's a few of more interesting questions posed to him this week:
Q: Former GM Wayne Krivsky once intimated he was close to a trade with the Cleveland Indians for pitcher Cliff Lee, who threw 25 first-pitch strikes against the first 27 batters for the Phillies in game one of the NLDS. How close was that trade? — Bill, Villa Hills, Ky.
A: Krivsky was as tight-lipped about possible trades as a CIA agent with the FBI looking over his shoulder. However, there were rumblings out of Cleveland that there were talks. I don’t think a deal was close, unfortunately for the Reds. And what would the Reds do with a left-hander in the rotation?
Q: Why wouldn’t the Reds move Brandon Phillips to shortstop and try Juan Francisco at second instead of add another name to the already overstuffed outfield of Jonny Gomes, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Laynce Nix, Chris Dickerson and Willy Taveras? — Mike, Houston
A: Why wouldn’t they? Because manager Dusty Baker says over and over and over and over again: "I won’t move a Gold Glove second baseman to another position and weaken two positions." Phillips, though, would do it in a millisecond. Francisco at second? Don’t think so. From what I’ve seen of him at third base, he is Edwin Encarnacion’s twin brother.
Redleg Nation has a nifty list of all the Reds prospects to show up on the BA lists that have come out for each league
So it's a nice reference tool to see where all the young Reds are at right now.
THT runs down a list of the greatest last games in stadium history
inspired by the thriller that went down between the Twins and Tigers last week. Of course it wasnt the last game in Metrodome history, but if the Tigers had won it would have ranked pretty high up there. The last game at Crosley Field makes the list at #10, when the Reds bested the Giants 5-4.

"The Reds were rarely able to put together great teams in their many decades in Crosley Field. They were rarely particularly bad, but they didn't win many pennants. I suppose it's somehow oddly fitting then that they departed the place in the middle of a season in which they won a pennant, their first of four pennants in seven years. The Giants took a 4-2 lead and with Hall of Famer Juan Marichal on the mound, victory seemed well at hand. Instead, the Reds rallied, culminating with back-to-back homers by Johnny Bench and Lee May to lead off the bottom of the eighth."

Poll

If given the choice between the two (I dont think Dusty would be fired for anyone else), who would you rather have managing the Reds in 2010?

Dusty Baker

41 votes

Tony LaRussa

277 votes

318 votes | Poll has closed

Red Reposter - Did the Injuries Really Break This Team?

Charlie Scrabbles — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 14:02:50 -0000

Here is the FanGraphs win probability graph from the Twins-Tigers play-in game the other night. This is how a robot interprets excitement.

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Now that the regular season is over, the Reposter will be scaled back a bit. There is no shortage of things to talk about during the season, but now that our favorite baseball team has shut it down for the winter few people out there on the mainframes are not talking about them. So I get a nice respite. I'll still try to keep the Reposter going a few times a week, but mostly I'll be catching up on the work that has been piling up for my real job over the past 6 months. Anyway, here's your stories for the day:

The over-arching narrative of this season we are hearing from the Reds and the media
is that injuries derailed an otherwise promising team. What do you think? Answer in the poll below!
Greg over at RLN takes a glance at a list of possible non-tender candidates
MLBtraderumors talked about the other day. Greg sees a few guys who could help the Reds, just like the non-tendered Jonny Gomes did last year. Kelly Shoppach and Noah Lowry are a couple of guys I wouldnt mind taking a look at if they were let go by their respective teams.
The Fay thanks those of you who read his blog for your patronage
so I'll take the opportunity to reciprocate and thank John for all of his hard work this year. This was the first season for the Reposter and without looking it up I'm pretty sure I linked to the Fay more than any other blog. The Reposter would be a ridiculous enterprise without him. Thanks John! He also says the biggest topics of the offseason will be the search for a new pitching coach, the search for George Grande's replacement on the tv (I'm crossing my fingers for Jim Kelch), and the decisions to be made on arb-eligible players like Jonny Gomes and Laynce Nix. Fay again says the budget may not stretch enough to fit Gomes and he could be non-tendered.
The Fay is not permitted to disclose his votes, but he all but says he voted Albert Pujols as your NL MVP (he'd be crazy not to, right?)
But he also says Joey Votto has a good shot at earning one of his own one of these days. Votto was 3rd in the league in OPS with a .981 mark, behind only Pujols and Prince Fielder. His 4.6 WAR is nothing to sneeze at, but it puts him well behind guys like Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, and Ryan Zimmerman. But of course, Votto did miss a month. In Batting Runs, he ranks 7th. He is something special.
Doug continues his State of the Farm series
by looking at 3rd base. Todd Frazier heads the list, despite playing only 4 games at the hot corner all season. Doug says the Reds already know he can play 3B, so they are trying him at other positions on the diamond to see if he can handle it. He split the season between LF and 2B and hit no matter which glove he wore. He also profiles El Nino Destructor Juan Francisco and Neftali Soto, who also made the pre-season Red Reporter top prospects list. In Centerfield, it's Yorman Rodriguez and In the corner outfield, Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco split the bill.
Dave Cameron at FanGraphs ran the numbers to see how well WAR correlates with actual wins and losses
and it turns out that it does a pretty darn good job. Good enough for me to keep it as my standard go-to stat. I think the most exciting thing is that WAR is still evolving, as it does not yet include such nebulous things as base running and catcher defense. So we arent all the way there, but I think we're on the right track.

Poll

Was it injuries that caused the Reds to fall to (yet another) losing season?

Yes, losing Votto, Volquez, Harang, Bruce, Hernandez, and others for extended periods of time really crippled the team and kept them from contending for the playoffs.

108 votes

No, the team just wasnt all that good to begin with. They wouldnt have made the playoffs anyway.

151 votes

259 votes | Poll has closed

Better Know a Playoff Team: Boston Red Sox

Charlie Scrabbles — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 15:39:10 -0000

The Red Sox have an Angel of their own pulling for them.

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Just like with the Angels and Yankees, we continue our series "Two Truths and a Lie" with the AL Wild Card-winning Sawx. Can you guess which two are true and which one I made up?

1. The Red Sox were 2nd in the AL in getting hit by pitches with 70. That's a lot of Boston (baked) Beans!

2. This year, the Red Sox celebrated Carlton Fisk's 1975 Game 6 and World Series-winning home run against the Reds with Joe Posnanski's new book "Beating the Machine: How Luis Tiant Shut Down the Greatest Offense in Baseball History".

3. Leadoff man and CF Jacoby Ellsbury led the league in steals with 70. That is 45 more than Willy Taveras.

Like Brendanukkah said, the Red Sox have man-handled the Angels in the postseason lately, having won 12 of 13 Games That Count. Can Big Papi, Lil' Peddy, and the Youk continue their dominance over the Angels, or will they be grilling portobello mushroom burgers of victory out there on the Left Coast? The series begins Thursday night in Anaheim with the first pitch set to be thrown out at 9:37 PM.