SB Nation User Blog: Charlie Scrabbles

Red Reposter - Reds Make Decent, Sensible Move; Surprise the Hell Out of Internet Jerks

Charlie Scrabbles — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 04:06:27 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Scott Rolen is a pretty good baseball player, which is good, 'cause he's gonna be here a while.

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Jorge Says No! likes the deal for both the Reds and Scott Rolen
Saying it gives the Reds flexibility and gives Rolen security. "I have a hard time thinking that in 2012 we'll think that this deal was fantastic, but in the short term, it accomplished an important goal for the Reds and now gives them the opportunity (albeit a small one) to spend money on some players."
Shawn at the Reds FanHuddle blog isn't wildly enthusiastic about the Rolen extension
but he doesn't seem terribly disappointed either.
DJ Short at Circling the Bases says it's "more than a fair deal"
for the Reds, assuming Rolen stays healthy. Bonus for freeing up $$ to "improve in other areas".
raygu at Fake Teams likes the Rolen extension too
The payroll flexibility is what intrigues him the most, as he wonders out loud if the money freed up in the Rolen extension could be used to eat more of Aaron Harang's salary in a dump trade with the Dodgers. It's an intriguing scenario, and one I hadn't heard yet.
Fonzie Forever has a very interesting post comparing Aaron Harang to John Lackey
I gotta say, it certainly raised my eyebrows. Harang has been Lackey's near-equal over the course of their careers, and Lackey just signed a deal with Boston for $82.5 mil. It's been widely rumored that for the Reds to trade ~~Dangerfield~~ Harang, they would have to eat at least half his salary.
Patriot takes a look at how lead-off hitters fared around the league
He uses a variety of different metrics and attacks the question from a variety of different angles, but one of the overwhelming conclusions to be drawn is "Willy Taveras managed to do what Jerry Hairston, Corey Patterson, and friends could not in 2008--lead the Reds leadoff slot to the bottom of the rankings". Faaaaaantastic.
Matt Klaassen at FanGraphs backs me up on what I was saying about evaluating deals and trades
He says the Gary Matthews Jr contract looks like a bear now, but at the time the deal was made it really wasn't so bad. Lil Sarge was coming off a 3-year stretch averaging over 3 WAR a season, so the 5-year $50 mil contract he got from the Angels, though a little long in years, was about right on market value. Of course, Matthews has been terrible since going to LA, but it's not good process to evaluate deals based on results, right?
Sheldon updates us on Edinson Volquez' rehab in his latest Inbox
He hopes to start throwing in January, but he's taking it slow to be on the safe side. He also dropped 12 pounds in a month. I didn't think he had that much to lose.
Erik Manning asks the Cubs just what they think they are doing
The Milton Bradley-Carlos Silva deal basically switches out Bradley and Tom Gorzelanny for Marlon Byrd (whom they are rumored to want for CF) and Silva, a switch that nets them a pretty tidy loss of a few wins. Keep f**king that chicken, Chicago!

Red Reposter - Is Jay Bruce the New Adam Dunn?

Charlie Scrabbles — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:07:11 -0000

by Al Behrman - AP

If the Reds are gonna keep losing you better believe we're gonna need a scapegoat.

View full size photo »

Illya Harrell at Bleacher Report has a feature on Juan Francisco
It's an interesting read, as he says the non-tendering of Jonny Gomes is because the Reds want to see Joey Votto and Yonder Alonso in the lineup together. He also says Francisco's biggest malfunction (other than being blocked positionally) is "a major case of Jay Bruce syndrome, striking out way too much." He ALSO calls Bruce "tremendously overrated". It's definitely worth reading.

The majority of folks 'round here love The Boss, so this kind of criticism of him comes somewhat as a surprise to me. But it just now strikes me that he could potentially be the lightning rod that Adam Dunn was (and Edwin Encarnacion should have been *sniff) due to his power + strikeouts + good-natured Texas demeanor dynamic. Of course, it's worth noting that Bruce's defense is about 3 wins better than Dunn's, and he doesn't walk as much, but superficiality never stopped anyone from a good ol'-fashioned effigy burnin'.
You know it's a slow Hot Stove Season when...
"Reds come up short in Counsell stakes" is the headline of a story. Frankly, I think the Brewers did us a favor here. Yeesh. I suppose we are left to hope Paul Janish dramatically improves his hitting, or that Miguel Tejada will play SS here in exchange for a coney and a chance to marshal the Opening Day parade.
Jonny Gomes says he willing to come back to Cincy
No hard feelings, bro. Fay quotes $1.5 mil as Gomes' estimated number had he gone to arbitration, and frankly it's hard to begrudge the man for that. The only thing I can think is that the Reds want to spend that money on a SS and are confident that guys like Wladimir Balentien, Chris Dickerson, and Chris Heisey can get the job done. And now is the time when I remind you of the 2nd guaranteed years to Mike Lincoln and Willy Taveras.
Chris Pummer and Howard Megdal at The Perpetual Post judge teams for their performances at the Winter Meetings
Here's what they say about the Reds:

"CHRIS PUMMER: Lose. The Reds will probably have to dump payroll this offseason, and Winter Meetings would have been the best time to do it. Now, who knows what the return for Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo or Brandon Phillips will be with a glut of players on the free agent market?
HOWARD MEGDAL: Bigger lose comes if they deal Phillips at all."

It's looking more and more like the Reds will not dump any significant players for payroll reasons. As Pummer says, the Winter Meetings are the place to do that, and the Reds didn't.
Fay says Micah Owings would likely have been non-tendered as well
had he not lost the coin flip with Mike Fontenot for Super-Two status. I like Owings, and I think he'll pitch better this year than last.
The Fay thinks Alfredo Amezega could fit as the UT guy the Reds are looking for
I'll pass, unless it's a minor league deal.
Doug Gray asks you to take a look at 7th round pick Josh Fellhauer
He's a CF from Cal State Fullerton and was one of my favorite picks of this year's draft.
FanGraphs unveiled their newest statty toy
wRC+ is pretty much a better, more precise stat than OPS+.
Jim Misudek at the Reds Internal Affairs blog wrote his last post
He's taken a job as the Media Relations Coordinator for the Braves. Good luck Jim!

Winter Meetings Open Thread - Day 2

Charlie Scrabbles — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:58:20 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Will Daynce Mix Vol. 2 hit the local club scene next summer?

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The Reds haven't made much noise so far, as expected. Dusty Baker said yesterday that he thinks the team as it stands is the team that will go to Spring Training. They are reportedly talking to the Mets about Jose Reyes, they are looking for a utility player who can play SS, and they are still talking to Laynce Nix. Use this thread to talk about any and all goings on with the Reds.

Red Reposter - Brandon Phillips Crashes Reds MVP Party, Joey Votto Mistaken for Gay Cowboy

Charlie Scrabbles — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 02:57:59 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

Joey Votto outperformed Brandon Phillips by over a full win according to WAR, but he suffered from the unfriendly Canadian exchange rate and Phillips took home the MVP.

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The Cincinnati chapter of the BBWAA handed out their Reds awards on Friday
Brandon Phillips was named team MVP with Bronson Arroyo being named Most Outstanding Pitcher. Chris Heisey won the Minor League Player of the Year with Juan Francisco and Travis Wood winning awards for best hitter and pitcher, respectively. Now unlike Slyde, I love Brandon Phillips. Few players in baseball have the kind of talent he does, with a unique blend of power, speed, and defensive ability. So what if he can't get on base? He does everything else so well! All that said, Joey Votto got jobbed. Hard. The Fay has some 'splainin to do.
At Redsfest, Jocketty was asked to explain his rationale for the Scott Rolen trade
""Why did you trade two young pitchers for Scott Rolen?" (a) young fan asked Jocketty. "Well, did you see what Scott Rolen did for us last season?" Jocketty responded, knowing the Reds went 27-13 when Rolen was in the lineup after the July 31 trade with the Blue Jays. "I know he got hurt," the child replied. Tough crowd. Keep in mind that Rolen was beaned in the head, suffered a concussion and had to spend time on the disabled list. "Scott Rolen will play a big part defensively, [as will] his leadership on the field and in the clubhouse," Jocketty said. "I've traded a lot of promising pitchers that didn't turn out to promising pitchers when they got to the big leagues. We don't know, but we felt it was more important to have leadership. When you have a young team like we have, you need veteran leaders. It's all part of the big picture."

Leadership. The Reds are certainly going to be needing that Leadership when they are drowning at the bottom of the division next July.
Sheldon says the Reds are looking at free agent Jamey Carroll
"We haven't discussed him at length," Jocketty said of Carroll. "He's gutty and a tough player, a gamer-type of guy that's hard-nosed."

He's also a soon-to-be-36-year-old utility infielder who OPS'd under .700 last season and does absolutely nothing that Adam Rosales and Drew Sutton cannot do. The Reds have not signed him yet, and Jocketty says they haven't even "discussed him at length", but the fact that his name is even being brought up has me furious. Seriously, FTH?!? He said he thinks Carroll could play shortstop, a position he has not played at all in the past two seasons. Can someone explain to me how this guy is anything Sutton or Rosales isn't? The good news is they are looking at Noah Lowry. So there's that.
The Reds have asked the Rangers about OF Nelson Cruz
This seems odd, as Cruz doesn't seem all that different than Jonny Gomes. And if we're looking for an extra OF, Jeff Fiorentino could be had for nothing. I'm sure we'll hear plenty of head-scratchers like this this week at the Winter Meetings, which commence today in Indianapolis. Though the Reds do not look to make much noise, you can be sure that we here at Red Reporter will hear every peep. News breaks pretty fast around the internets, so if you see that the Reds have finally sealed that deal for Hanley Ramirez and we haven't heard it yet, go ahead and put it in a FanShot. We'll make sure it finds it's way to the front page.

Todd Frazier isn't worried about not having a position
He knows if he hits, he'll have a job. He embraces his Jack-of-All-Trades game: "That’s always been big part of it for me, knowing I can play those positions, knowing if something happens, I can play there and get to the big leagues," he said. Frazier was shortstop from Little League (he led Toms River, N.J., to a Little League World Series title in fact) until his first two years in the minors. He hasn’t played there since 2008. "I missed it," he said. "But what are you going to do?"

Also in this article, Enerio Del Rosario has been working with Mario Soto lately. I approve of this.

Cliff Eastham at the Bleacher Reports continues his grade cards for the Reds
He gives Jay Bruce a C-, which convinces me that his grade scale and/or rubric are/is completely arbitrary. Remember last week he gave Willy Taveras a D. Here's a bit of what he says about Bruce:

"After settling down, he showed no further signs of greatness last season. In 2009 his power revealed itself on the major league level. He had 15 home runs before Memorial Day and looked like he was set for a 40/HR year. His average bottomed and we see now a true .240 hitter with excellent power."

BuccoFans.com is running down options for the Pirates in the upcoming Rule 5 draft
They take a look at corner outfielders and mention Danny Dorn. Here's what they have to say about him:

"He has great power, with a homer every 21 at-bats. He would be an interesting platoon option with a player who excels against left handers, or a strong bat off the bench. He kind of reminds me of the left handed version of Steve Pearce. A Pearce/Dorn platoon could work out at first base or right field if the Pirates don't sign a free agent, and don't give the first base job to Jeff Clement."

The Hall of Very Good: Jon Adkins signs Minor League deal with Reds
Welcome back Jon. It's good to see good people getting good shots with a...baseball team.

A big "Hi, Hello, and Welcome" to new head trainer Paul Lessard
He replaces Mark Mann who decided to quit to write a book or something.

Gregg Zaun bringing his Z-Game to the South Side of Milwaukee

Charlie Scrabbles — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 20:45:36 -0000

Gregg Zaun bringing his Z-Game to the South Side of Milwaukee

He's a bit cheaper than Ramon, and he's also better. Congratulations again, Reds, for misreading the market.

Red Reposter - Back to Work After a Nice Long Weekend at the Feed Trough

Charlie Scrabbles — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 14:48:57 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Brandon Phillips knows the Reds' D is better than grandma's pecan pie.

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Lisa Winston at MLB.com wrote a nice overview of the Reds' farm system
The AAA team looks stacked next year, as the Reds have a ton of good prospects at the higher levels. The most interesting nugget in the article is that it looks like the Reds have already decided that Todd Frazier will play LF next season, with Chris Valaika at 2B and Zack Cozart at SS. Frazier is pretty clearly the best prospect among these guys, and we know he's played pretty much everywhere in previous seasons. There has been some discussion on the site recently about where Frazier should play. Did the Reds give up on him at SS too soon? Should he get more of a look at 2B? Is he a better option at 3B than Juan Francisco? Do you think LF is the right place for him?
Erik Manning at FanGraphs really likes the Reds defense
He says he doesn't really like anything else about them, but he did promise he'd call.
Cliff Eastham at the Bleacher Report is passing out his report cards for the Reds
and he gives Willy Taveras a "D". Grade inflation anyone?
FanGraphs is putting together Fan Projections
We did something like this here last season, but here is your chance to project the Reds' performance on a site that serious people actually read.
UmpBump is putting together a series on team needs
and they say the Reds #1 priority this offseason should be getting a time machine. It's the only way to get the team out from under the Francisco Cordero contract, which they say is the biggest hurdle in putting together a competitive team.
Another Fay Q & A
"Q, from Andrew: What is the status of Bill Bray? Is he expected to be ready by the beginning of the season? Would the Reds break camp with three lefty relievers (Arthur Rhodes, Daniel Ray Herrera and Bray)?

A: His Tommy John" surgery was May 19. That puts him on track to return by early May of this coming season. I would expect the Reds to be cautious with him, given his injury history."
The Hardball Times looks at the top baserunners of 2009
Brandon Phillips comes in at number 6, and this is even without taking stolen bases into account. He also provides a link to the entire list for the league.
Red Reposter NEWS FROM HELL
OMGReds passes along this luxurious piece of cheesecake. Remember the bimbo Pete Rose brought to the game late in the season? Turns out she's not a call girl (I know, surprised me too). She and Petey are going steady. And she is auditioning for Playboy.

Poll

If you were the Reds' Farm Director, where would you play #1 prospect Todd Frazier?

Shortstop. It is the weakest position on the big club and the Reds never gave him much of a chance there.

39 votes

2nd base. His bat would play extremely well there if he could stick.

31 votes

3rd base. Scott Rolen wont be around after this season and I dont believe El Nino Destructor can hack it at the hot corner.

36 votes

Left field. It puts him on the fastest track to the big leagues and we need a good right-handed bat in the lineup quick!

55 votes

timb116 hates all this talk about prospects! Shut up!

3 votes

164 votes | Poll has closed

Red Reposter - What is Your Favorite Thanksgiving Side Dish?

Charlie Scrabbles — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:00:51 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Bronson's favorite Thanksgiving side dish? Coconut rum.

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Sheldon spoke to Chris Dickerson about this and that
where he fits in the outfield and how he played this season and such. Here's an excerpt:

"I was really disappointed that my power didn't show up this year," Dickerson said. "I was talking to Drew Stubbs about it and he couldn't find it this year as well [in the Minors]. It's just one of those things that kind of shows up. It showed up for Drew. I just never got there. When I tried to hit home runs, I struggled. I went back to what I knew, which was to hit the ball up the middle and the other way and get on base. I made the adjustment and did what was necessary at the time to play my role to the best of my ability."
You cant keep Bronson down. That guy is incorrigible!
"In my mind, there was no reason to get [Scott] Rolen [in a July 31 trade] if we're turning around and moving guys without waiting to see what happens [during the season]," Arroyo said. "I think they'll give us four months to see if we can compete in the division. If we're not, we'll have a big scale back. For now, they seem committed to win."
Aaron Gleeman agrees with Bronson Arroyo
He's confused about the whole payroll thing:

"It's not often that a starting pitcher who "hasn't paid any attention to it" while vacationing "on his boat sailing off of the Florida coast" and some doofus blogger can both immediately agree that the front office is doing some strange things, but the Reds' lack of foresight is apparently obvious to everyone but them." Yipes.
Slyde answered some off-season questions about the Reds for Simon On Sports
Jack Moore at FanGraphs writes about Jay Bruce
It's nothing we havent really heard before, but he basically says Bruce's BABIP (a paltry .222 this year) is the reason for his struggles so far. Now whether that is his particular skill level or not is the real question. Time will tell.
Book excerpt: Evaluating Baseball’s Managers: Pat Moran
In another sneak preview from his new book, Chris examines the greatest manager you never heard of: Pat Moran.
Doug Glanville talks about Free Agency from a player's perspective
Paul Janish went got himself hitched
Dont worry ladies, there are plenty of handsome, strong-armed, Rice-graduate shortstop fish in the sea.
Doug scoured the list of eligible Rule 5 draftees and came up with a few names that could interest the Reds
in the case they drop someone to make room. Ol' Roger Rocket's kid, Koby Clemens, makes the list as a catcher who raked in High A. If the Reds were compelled once again to carry 3 catchers it might make a bit of sense to try to stash a guy like Clemens. Of course, I'm not sure any of the guys listed are worth dropping Mike Lincoln or Willy Taveras. And yes, you heard that right.

Laynce Nix a free agent, Daryl Thompson outrighted off 40-man roster

Charlie Scrabbles — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:00:11 -0000

Laynce Nix a free agent, Daryl Thompson outrighted off 40-man roster

Mark Sheldon tweets it. I think we all expected Nix to get nixed with so many better, cheaper options, and Thompson shouldn't be a surprise either. Dude's been riddled with injuries. Remember his debut at Yankee Stadium though? That was awesome.

MLBTraderumors also says Craig Tatum was claimed off waivers by the Orioles. Plenty of roster clean-up going on with deadline to set the 40-man fast approaching.

Update at 4:04 PM (by BK):
We have a list of players added to the 40-man roster:
RHP Enerio Del Rosario
OF Chris Heisey
RHP Logan Ondrusek
RHP Jordan Smith
IF Chris Valaika
LHP Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette
LHP Travis Wood

No shockers there, and Wood and Heisey get protection from the Rule 5. Anyone you think should have been protected but wasn't?

Red Reposter - Where Were You When You Heard The Reds Re-signed Ramon Hernandez?

Charlie Scrabbles — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 03:11:56 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Ramon Hernandez will be back next year, but could that affect the contract status of guys like Jonny Gomes and Jared Burton?

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Hall o' Famer Hal weighs in with his opinion on the Hernandez signing
and he does little to convince me. "Hernandez hit only .258 last year with five homers and 37 RBIs, but...(he) is the kind of guy I want around when I want to have fun and a guy I want to have around when I need somebody to watch my back." Sorry Hal, but this team needs a catcher, not Danny Glover. Hal also tries his hand at a bit o' statistical analysis. He discusses Jay Bruce's LD% and Aaron Harang's DER. It's actually pretty impressive for an old-timer.
Mark Sheldon wonders if the re-signing of Ramon Hernandez will prohibit the team from signing a LF
He says Jonny Gomes is the better choice over Laynce Nix (duh), but "you have to wonder if catcher Ramon Hernandez's re-signing on Monday for one year at $3 million takes away some of the dollars for left field." He says there are other in-house options, but gives the impression that Gomes would be the superior choice.
Matthew Pouliot likes the Hernandez signing as well
"He's 33 now and clearly on the decline, but if the Reds give him a fair amount of rest, he should be good for a dozen homers and his typical .330-.340 OBP."
The Fay has the Boss Man's word on the signing:
"It was an offseason priority. When you look at the alternatives, they’re not great. I think he and (Ryan) Hanigan are a good combination. Corky (Miller) is going to go to Triple-A that that gives us some depth."

Craig Calcaterra says the Blue Jays would seriously consider Brandon Phillips
if the Reds were to make him available. But --get this-- they would want him to play 3B. The very same 3B Scott Rolen used to man. He then quips on the Rolen deal, "given that the trade apparently filled no holes for either team and harmed one financially, I'm tempted to deem the Rolen trade the most pointless trade in recent memory." So this is one of the head-shakingest bits of internews I've read in a while.

Jack Moore at FanGraphs writes about the recent non-rumor of the possibility of the Reds trading Joey Votto
Walt Jocketty retorted, "Oh God, no!" when asked about it. Moore says, "With Votto producing as he has through his career, he is one of the best assets in the MLB. Jocketty’s response was right on the money." This gives me hope. Thanks to Dave from Luhvull for the FanShot.

Long time head athletic trainer Mark Mann resigned his post last week.
He has accepted a job with Morgan Stanley as a financial advisor(?). God speed, Mr. Mann!

FanGraphs lists the best baserunners according to BP's baserunning metrics
and Brandon Phillips comes in as one of the leaders of the pack, up there with such speedsters as Michael Bourn, Chone Figgins, Ichiro, and Dexter Fowler. Ride on, BeeP!

FanHouse takes a look at the Reds' offseason
They do a pretty good job reviewing the roster situation, though they inaccurately say that Joey Votto is arb-eligible for the first time this year. Here's the course of action they recommend:

"I think the Reds' biggest goal this offseason is to simultaneously dump one of their two overpaid starters without weakening the rotation. If money is a problem for them, they at least have a chance to fill their holes in the outfield and shortstop internally, but beyond Cueto and Bailey, there's not much their system has to offer in terms of pitching. The problem for them is that it won't be easy to find someone willing to take Arroyo or Harang without the Reds paying a lot of their salary, and so the amount of money freed up by a trade would probably be minimal."

Which is to say, we're probably boned.

Poll

How do you feel about the Hernandez signing?

yay

82 votes

nay

23 votes

meh

109 votes

wha?

12 votes

226 votes | Poll has closed

CHONE's projections for hitters for 2010 are out

Charlie Scrabbles — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 22:02:40 -0000

CHONE's projections for hitters for 2010 are out

Could the Reds really be better off non-tendering Jonny Gomes, saving the few million bucks, and going with Wladimir Balentien instead? Check 'em out and tell me what you think.