i didn't realize another similar post was up before this.  I started typing the fanpost before (the other one) but wife served dinner and I stopped typing.  Watched a little Trueblood on HBO and then finished the post.  Sorry for beating a dead horse.  That wasn't my intentions.  11:24 PM

I know!!!!!!!!  Our team seems prime for a breakout win streak and it could very well happen against the Mets after the break.  I know!!!!!!!!!!  We just got rid of the abomination we called Frenchy.  I know, I know , I know. 

However, the next two weeks could very easily be the nail in the coffin.  We meet the Mets (4), Giant Aces (4), Brew Crew Bats (3), Marlins (3), and Manny (1) before the deadline.  This is a tough stretch and as a pessimistic ASS I'm assuming were lucky to pull a .500 record before the deadline. 

The braves farm system is annually consider one of the best in the business but it's very obviously that we lack positional depth in the IF and bats in general.  We have depth with arms and many high ceiling types but we truly have glaring whole with our positional players.  I know!!!!!! We have Heyward, Freeman, and Schafer.  However, besides them who do we really have after that?  My point..........

If we drop the ball after the all star break we should serious consider dealing some pieces and re-stock the cabinets.  Players I think we should consider moving: Gonzo, Soriano, Vazquez, ( I would add Kawakami but I think he will be an ambassador for the Braves in Japan scouting once his contract is over.  I just see them using his popularity and connections in Japan.) 

Vazquez?  I think that the Doc sweepstakes should be a good indication of what the Braves might be able to acquire.  Obviously, Doc is on another level but none the less he is setting the market whether he is dealt or not.  The teams merging as the front runners are as follows: Phillies (We won't deal to them), Cardinals, and Rangers.  The rangers seem to match up best but have money issues.  If the braves eat Vazquez contract (later half of 2009) he becomes much more attractive as Texas can buy out Padilla option for 1.75 million and cover Vazquez cost for 2010.  With the braves covering his cost they also get a better package in return.  A realistic return would be the following:

1) Feliz or Holland 2)  Kiker or Main 3) Matt West  or Wittleman  4) Marcus Lemon 5) Joaquin Arias

I know!!!!!! Vazquez has a no trade clause but if the braves can pull this type of load then they should not hesitate.   Though Vazquez is the best pitcher on our staff now we do have internal options to backfill for the 2009 season.  Medlen could be serviceable until September when Hudson starts making his comeback.  Maybe Hudson isn't the same when he gets back but you still picked up Feliz for 2010.  This gives you flexibility with what you do with Hudson in 2010.  A rotation of Lowe, JJ, Hanson, Kawakami, and Feliz is more tan serviceable.  I know!!!!!!  He's our top ace but sell high if your not in it for the ring. 

Cardinals: Have similar money issues but once again we could cover the cost. 

1) Rasmus 2) Kozma 3) Reifer 4) Allen Craig or De La Cruz 5) P.J. Walters

Here we have pitching issues after the trade.  Yes, Medlen can fill and Hudson could pick it up where he left off but no Feliz to fill in.  However, on the flip side you now have a stud OF that's MLB ready.  Schafer or Rasmus?  Good problem to have and good trade chip in the offseason to fit needs if need be.  NO TRADE CLAUSE FOR CENTRAL.

Dodgers: Have the money

1) Kemp 2) Dejesus Jr. 3) Austin Gallagher 4)Nathan Evaldi 5) PTBNL

Soriano and/or Gonzo: nothing less than a top organizational prospect would do.  Teams that come to mind

Rays: Tim Beckham and Reid Fonk we cover soriano salary.  Jennings and Brignac we cover Soriano salary.

Rays: Gonzo for Brignac and PTBNL

Reds: Soto and Todd Frazier or Valaika  for Soriano

Reds: Gonzo for Valaika and PTBNL

Rockies:  Gonzo for Chris Nelson and Casey Weathers or Aneaury Rodriguez

Dodgers: Dejesus Jr and Nathan Eovaldi for Soriano

Dodgers: Dejesus Jr for Gonao and PTBNL

I truly hope the braves pull together a nice win streak soon but I'm very doubtful of it actually happening.  I think we have several pieces and talent for 2010 but we should capatilize on a "sell high" if were not in it for the ring.  Medlen will be serviceable and the Hudson experiment will start no more than 3 weeks after the deadline.  I don't see us trading both Gonzo and Soriano so technically we will still have a closer for our pen.  With "Buddy" coming back and Valdez in the pen we will once again be serviceable.

I'm sure this post will piss many off on the blog but I wanted to start a discussion on the possibility that we might be sellers in July or August.  Who do we match up with?  Is my concern of NO farm system INF and general bat depth legitimate?

On June 3rd the braves made a public effort to improve their team on many fronts.  First, they cut ties with a true Hall of Famer despite his tireless work ethic and established relationship with the organization.  Second, they called up one of the highest regarded pitching prospects in the game and moved another promising pitcher to aid the bullpen.  There have been numerous opinions on the Glavine, Hanson, Medlen saga but one fact remains that the Braves made the shift to the future. 

During this entire ordeal the Braves made a significant short term and long term trade for Mclouth.  Short term, the braves acquire an impact bat with speed for their pedestrian outfield.  They gave up valuable prospects in Morton, Gorky’s, and Locke.  Though these prospects will undoubtedly contribute to future Buc teams they in most regards were blocked from the Braves MLB roster.  

Long term, the braves acquired Frenchy replacement. With the braves star CF prospect Schafer back in the minors this might not be as apparent.  Schafer struggled mightily at the plate but glimpses of his ability were evident from his first at bat.  Mclouth is currently holding the reigns at CF but will undoubtedly give way to the superior defense of Schafer once he is called back from the minors or at the latest the beginning of the 2010 season.   In addition to the new speed and pop in the outfield our Frenchy replacement is under contract until 2011 with an option for 2012. 

Can Franceour turn it around this season?  He might but it will only build value to his ultimate trade.  If he can’t turn it around he could very well be on the road to a release.  Mclouth (Frenchy Replacement) makes this possible.

With the new outfield of Schafer and Mclouth and lack of Frenchy the braves have upgraded their outfield and allowed more flexibility in acquiring a right handed power bat for 2010.   With Heyward possibly breaking camp in 2010 or 2011 the braves have a future power bat in waiting.  This allows the braves to go after 1 or 2 year options in LF to secure power without overpaying for Holliday or Bay.   With the abundance of LH hitters in the lineup players such as Kelly Johnson become expendable.  Johnson was part of many offseason rumors and will undoubtedly be trade bait this offseason and the fact remains that he was included in the Ludwick talks this past offseason. With the deep 2010 2B free agent class the braves could overlook their inability to replace Johnson internally.  Johnson’s value is down now but as a streaky hitter he could build it back anyday.

Kotchman becomes a LH bat that’s expendable.  He could draw many suitors being a cheap, under contract, line drive, good defender 1B. Though free agent 1B aren’t deep in 2010; Vazquez and or the extra money from Hudson could play a factor in this scenario. Jorge Cantu comes to mind as a replacement.

Can the braves deal Johnson or Kotchman this offseason?  Yes and Mclouth makes this possible because the braves don’t necessarily need to acquire their power LF anymore.  Would it be nice to have a power LF? Yes  Does it have to be a LF now? In my opinion, NO.

The addition of Mclouth has allowed the braves to not only contend now but also the flexibility to form a very good roster in 2010.  Instead of only looking for a RH outfielder they can pursue other creative options to upgrade their roster this season and beyond. The Buc’s may or may not win the deal based on statistics in a few years but it’s clear that the Braves and the McClouth trade will allow the once dominate franchise to contend in 2010 and beyond. 

It’s apparent that Detroit has a very weak starting rotation this year. With Verlander, Jackson, and possibly Bonderman leading the rotation it’s apparent that Detroit needs help. Despite their horrible rotation they still have a very potent lineup that will keep them in games.

As everyone knows, the city of Detroit is struggling and ticket revenues are somewhat of an unknown in 2009. Typically, you keep your payroll within 10% of revenue in order to establish a conservative business model that is still profitable. Detroit’s starting payroll will be $120 Million. Revenue’s realistically might be $100 Million and therefore the tigers are putting themselves at risk.

With the current economical conditions it would be in Detroit’s best interest to explore any moves possible to lower payroll and bring in prospects and young mlb ready pitching like Jackson (Jackson is not great but he accomplishes what they need).

Now, what FAT can be trimmed in order to accomplish the above mentioned plan?

Ordonez is due 15-18 million and has a 3 million dollar buyout next year. He has two years of options at 15 million and needs to be moved despite his productivity. If Detroit eats 7 Million of the contract for 2009 they would have numerous suitors with young talent.

Sheffield is due 13 million and can still hit. Yes, his stat’s are down but he is still a viable impact player. Once again, Detroit should eat half of his contract and move him. He’s useless to them and they could bring in young cheaper talent.

Guillen 10,13,13 million threw 2011 can be moved

Polanco should have been an offseason trade to the Cardinals, Dodgers, or Angles. All of those teams have good farm systems and would have helped the tigers in the long term.

Unfortunately, the tigers hype last year is very similar to Dontrelle Willis career in Detroit. There was potential for big things. It didn’t work but everyone decided to be patient and let themselves work out. Now on the dawn of the 2009 season it looks as if they need to make hard decisions and move on.

Are there any Detroit pieces worth Reyes, Morton, Brandon Jones, Josh Anderson, Blanco, Parr, etc…..Would Wren trade for Ordonez with a 10 million dollar tag that has options for two years? Yes, those options are pricey but it gives Wren flexibility with bringing up our young OF talent like Jason. He also brings exactly what we lack (Right handed power bat).

Should the Wren make the call?

Apparently, D. Willis is moments from being cut from the tigers.  He has struggled throughout spring training and doesn't seem anywhere close to becoming a starter. 

Would Reyes interest the tigers?  What could we get for him. 

Does anyone else have any thoughts on possible trade partners?

FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER FILLER

BRAVES ARE KICKING BUTT IN SPRING TRAINING.