It looks like the MSM is in the holiday spirit. This morning, Woody Paige, Mark Kiszla and a few others wrote me in response to letters I sent earlier this year. I thought I'd share what they said. Here we go:

Dear Woody Paige,

For my money, no Bronco has been more disappointing in 2009 than Chris Simms, the quarterback you thought should take the helm for Orton. What went wrong? Who else do you think has let the team down?

Signed, Chibronx

***

Dear Chibronx,

In 2009, I thought Denver would be Simms' City. The Simms (Phil the Rivers and Chris the Collinsworth-less) were an ideally designed family. Chris was primed to cross into the upper tier of NFL quarterbacks. He would make Clay Street Simms' Lane. But if only the quarterback without a spleen had a brain. Then his ample heart would guarantee that his kidney wasn't just kiddin' me when I pronounced him the best QB 2 B there for the Broncos.

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Just in from the Sun-Times: Brian Urlacher is out for the year. Others who watch the Bears may disagree, but this will be worth something to the Broncos in the draft next year. Urlacher covers so much ground for that D; everything about their attacking style rests on his ability to move fluidly in four directions. He also helps the Bears defense to cover many of its weaknesses.

The Bears were a team in defensive decline before this happened. I'm increasingly happy to hold their first-round pick.

As we approach game one of the Josh McDaniels era, one thing is clear: The new coach will be judged against our wildest dreams – and not the cold truths – about the 2008 team. It’s grossly unfair, but I understand the impulse. The 2008 Broncos left a greater impact on me than any Broncos team in memory, including all of the Superbowl teams and the 2005 team that came oh-so close. The roller-coaster nature of the season and, above all, the wild, reckless hope produced by the team’s new-found love of the passing game were riveting. Win or lose, I was hooked. Who could possibly stop thinking about a team that beat the Falcons on the road one week, got blown out by the Raiders at home the next, then thumped the Jets on the road the week after?

Like a flight that nearly ends in disaster, the turbulence of the Broncos’ season produced unusually strong memories. Not good memories, but strong ones. And when I have to reach for a memory of 2008, I come up with the wide-open passing game of the first three weeks. We all know the 2008 Broncos were the beauty that kills. I’m here to tell you how much. A lot of folks around here have done some legwork on this. We know that the team was outscored, and badly. We know that the players the team cut were bad. But a closer, statistical look adds an extra dimension of pain. For all the hope the passing game inspired, the 2008 Broncos were the worst mediocre team in memory. Mediocre and falling, like an anvil. I’ve crunched the numbers to document the pain.

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True or false: If the Broncos trade Brandon Marshall, they'll need to draft a wide receiver in 2010.

Trick question. They'll need to either way. Keeping Marshall in town and getting him happy doesn't complete the WR position. Even if Marshall and Royal stay happy, health and members of the Broncos for the next 10 years, there's still work to do. And I think we'd be nuts not to keep this in mind as we sort through the latest melodrama.

 

There are two main reasons why.

Continue reading this post »

 

In just 15 games in 2008, Brandon Marshall caught 104 passes. The feat ranked third in the NFL for the season (behind Andre Johnson and Wes Welker) and second in the all-time history of the Denver Broncos. With our own eyes, we saw the remarkable degree to which he keyed the offense. We marveled at his acrobatic catches (think of the rising, back-of-the-endzone grab in Kansas City) and his often astonishing ability to stay on his feet, describing a perfect circle behind the defense as he hauls in the ball on the sideline, shakes off a defender, and cuts back behind the grain. It was wonderful, and as much as we all loved Rod Smith's dedication to the game and technical expertise, Marshall's physical gifts captured our attention in a unique way.

But our eyes often deceive us, and the highlight-reel memories we assemble of a player can misled - often badly - when it comes to assessing his impact on the team. This article looks at the considerable cost at which Marshall's accomplishments came, and asks what a fair appraisal of his production (as opposed to his talent and potential) looks like. Two points before we jump in. First, a hat tip to Jaffe28, who posted a more concise form of these statistics earlier today. I've been working on this for awhile, and don't want it to be seen as plagiarism. Second, I want Marshall to stay on the team - this is not a hit job. My point of departure is the observation that he has asked the Broncos to evaluate his potential. Given all the if's attached to this young man, I want to ask what his production has looked like once we account for the disproportionate number of times Jay Cutler threw to him last year. Every throw on the football field comes at a cost - of another receiver not thrown to, or of a run not taken. To me, the dominant question is: how efficient were the Broncos when they directed the action Marshall's way? The analysis below doesn't try to answer the quesiton of whether Brandon Marshall or Jay Cutler or Jeremy Bates is at fault for Marshall's underwhelming numbers. It just asks what those numbers are, and contextualizes them via comparison to the league's other frequently targeted wide receivers.

Putting aside his injuries, legal troubles, contract demands and attitude, a closer look at the numbers suggests several important qualifications to Marshall's on-field performance. We all know about his relative lack of touchdowns. Marshall reached the end zone just six times last year, and just seven times the year before that. But a bigger concern to my mind is the relative inefficiency of the passing game when it has been directed Marshall's way. Rather than dance around the point, I'll cut straight to the table:

Table 1: Reception Percentage (Receptions/Targets)

Name	Team	Target	Rec	Reception Percentage
Wes Welker	NE	150	112	74.7%
Anquan Boldin	ARI	126	89	70.6%
Eddie Royal	DEN	129	91	70.5%
Lance Moore	NO	113	79	69.9%
Donald Driver	GB	107	74	69.2%
Steve Breaston	ARI	113	77	68.1%
Andre Johnson	HOU	170	115	67.6%
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	CIN	137	92	67.2%
Greg Camarillo	MIA	83	55	66.3%
Derrick Mason	BAL	121	80	66.1%
Hines Ward	PIT	126	82	65.1%
Greg Jennings	GB	125	80	64.0%
Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	112	71	63.4%
Kevin Walter	HOU	95	60	63.2%
Reggie Wayne	IND	130	82	63.1%
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	154	96	62.3%
Lee Evans	BUF	102	63	61.8%
Michael Jenkins	ATL	81	50	61.7%
Antwaan Randle El	WAS	87	53	60.9%
Antonio Bryant	TB	138	84	60.9%
Steve Smith	CAR	129	78	60.5%
Laveranues Coles	NYJ	116	70	60.3%
Bobby Wade	MIN	88	53	60.2%
Ted Ginn	MIA	93	56	60.2%
Muhsin Muhammad	CAR	108	65	60.2%
Matt Jones	JAC	107	64	59.8%
Roddy White	ATL	149	88	59.1%
Vincent Jackson	SD	101	59	58.4%
Brandon Stokley	DEN	85	49	57.6%
Santana Moss	WAS	138	79	57.2%
Brandon Marshall	DEN	182	104	57.1%
Devin Hester	CHI	92	52	56.5%
Isaac Bruce	SF	107	60	56.1%
Marvin Harrison	IND	107	60	56.1%
Dwayne Bowe	KC	157	86	54.8%
Randy Moss	NE	126	69	54.8%
Chad Ochocinco	CIN	97	53	54.6%
Marques Colston	NO	87	47	54.0%
Amani Toomer	NYG	89	48	53.9%
Torry Holt	STL	119	64	53.8%
Donnie Avery	STL	104	54	51.9%
Calvin Johnson	DET	151	78	51.7%
DeSean Jackson	PHI	121	62	51.2%
Bernard Berrian	MIN	95	48	50.5%
Mark Clayton	BAL	82	41	50.0%
Terrell Owens	DAL	140	69	49.3%
Santonio Holmes	PIT	114	55	48.2%
Roy Williams	DET	82	36	43.9%
Braylon Edwards	CLE	138	55	39.9%

On his way to completing those 104 throws to Marshall, Jay Cutler threw the ball his way 182 times. Andre Johnson, the league's second most thrown-to receiver was targeted "just" 170 times and finished with 310 more yards. Putting aside, for a moment, the question of what kinds of throws the quarterbacks in question made, we have an easy explanation for Marshall's comparatively low yardage production: Compared to the league's best wide-outs, he caught a small percentage of the balls thrown his way. To be specific, Marshall's catch-conversion rate (that is, the share of times he caught balls thrown his way) was 57.1% -- the thirty-first best rate for wide receivers targeted at least 80 times.

Pro football has many kinds of receivers, routes, and plays, so I'll try to put the number in context. First of all, look at the top three receivers in the table. Wes Welker and Eddie Royal (OK, I buried the lede on that one) run different kinds of routes - shorter, lower-reward, and far more likely to result in completions. Welker caught nearly three out of four balls thrown his way, and Royal caught seven out of ten. Anquan Boldin, while more obviously athletic, plays a similar-ish role on the Cardinals' offense. As far as I'm concerned, he's a revelation, and if I were a desperate team targeting a disenchanted wideout with iffy health and dollar signs in his eyes, I know who it would be.

OK, let's take another cut at the numbers. Draw an imaginary line below Michael Jenkins. That line marks the league-wide completion percentage of 61% for last year; every Wide Receiver above the line had a catch-rate (or, if you prefer, completion percentage) above the league average. That's a noteworthy achievement for a wide-out because the league-wide completion rate includes lots of low-risk, check-down throws to running backs, #4 wideouts, and other players who make good targets precisely because they're such lesser threats that the defense often leaves them open. Look closely at the twenty players above the line, and you see many (although not all) of the truly elite #1 wide-outs: Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Lee Evans, Greg Jennings. What's notable here is that Marshall comes in behind not only these highly accomplished monsters, but behind a number of receivers - Matt Jones, Tedd Ginn, Jerico Cotchery, Kevin Walter, Antonio Bryant - who earn far less acclaim.

OK, fine, he didn't catch a lot balls, you say, but catching the ball is not a wide receiver's only job. He's also supposed to make big plays. Sure, the Walsh offense and increasing sophistication of the passing game have made it a lower-risk, lower-reward endeavor, but a deep threat that stretches the defense and moves the team down the field in big leaps still has a lot of value. Despite his physical gifts, Marshall is not that player. To the contrary, despite his low reception rate, he performs better as a short, possession receiver - drops and all - than he does as a deep threat.

Table 2: Yards per Reception

Name	Team	Rec	Yard	Yards/Reception
Bernard Berrian	MIN	48	964	20.1
Vincent Jackson	SD	59	1,098	18.6
Steve Smith	CAR	78	1,417	18.2
Calvin Johnson	DET	78	1,331	17.1
Mark Clayton	BAL	41	695	17.0
Marques Colston	NO	47	760	16.2
Greg Jennings	GB	80	1,292	16.2
Lee Evans	BUF	63	1,017	16.1
Braylon Edwards	CLE	55	877	15.9
Roddy White	ATL	88	1,382	15.7
Michael Jenkins	ATL	50	777	15.5
Terrell Owens	DAL	69	1,052	15.2
Kevin Walter	HOU	60	899	15.0
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	96	1,434	14.9
Santonio Holmes	PIT	55	821	14.9
Antonio Bryant	TB	84	1,249	14.9
DeSean Jackson	PHI	62	912	14.7
Randy Moss	NE	69	1,008	14.6
Muhsin Muhammad	CAR	65	923	14.2
Ted Ginn	MIA	56	790	14.1
Reggie Wayne	IND	82	1,145	14.0
Isaac Bruce	SF	60	833	13.9
Andre Johnson	HOU	115	1,575	13.7
Donald Driver	GB	74	1,012	13.7
Santana Moss	WAS	79	1,044	13.2
Steve Breaston	ARI	77	1,003	13.0
Derrick Mason	BAL	80	1,037	13.0
Devin Hester	CHI	52	665	12.8
Hines Ward	PIT	82	1,047	12.8
Donnie Avery	STL	54	684	12.7
Torry Holt	STL	64	796	12.4
Bobby Wade	MIN	53	645	12.2
Brandon Marshall	DEN	104	1,265	12.2
Laveranues Coles	NYJ	70	850	12.1
Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	71	858	12.1
Amani Toomer	NYG	48	580	12.1
Roy Williams	DET	36	430	11.9
Dwayne Bowe	KC	86	1,022	11.9
Lance Moore	NO	79	928	11.7
Matt Jones	JAC	64	750	11.7
Anquan Boldin	ARI	89	1,038	11.7
Antwaan Randle El	WAS	53	593	11.2
Greg Camarillo	MIA	55	613	11.1
Brandon Stokley	DEN	49	528	10.8
Eddie Royal	DEN	91	980	10.8
Marvin Harrison	IND	60	636	10.6
Wes Welker	NE	112	1,165	10.4
Chad Ochocinco	CIN	53	540	10.2
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	CIN	92	904	9.8

More interesting than Marshall's numbers are the overall numbers for the Broncos' passing game. Marshall ranks 33rd in yards per reception among the highly-targeted players here, but first among

 Broncos. Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokely followed, each at 10.8 yards per catch. (Tony Scheffler is another story, but he plays another position). This fascinates me because I believed that the Broncos employed a high-risk, high-reward passing game last year. The numbers here suggest it was more like a medium-risk, low-reward game.

OK, before wrapping it up, let's look at the most commonly cited mitigating factor in Marshall's production. The guy racks up a lot of first downs. In fact, it was posited - quite smartly - early today that his low Yards per Catch rate owes to the fact that the team asked him to run lots of routes only as far as the first-down marker. On this count, most of us feel that he succeeded. But once again, the numbers tell a different story.

Table 4: First Downs per Times Thrown to on Third Down

Name	TARG	FD	First Downs per Target
Derrick Mason	36	23	0.64
Hines Ward	37	23	0.62
Steve Smith	31	19	0.61
Greg Jennings	35	21	0.60
Steve Breaston	27	16	0.59
Matt Jones	27	16	0.59
Anthony Gonzalez	29	17	0.59
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	46	26	0.57
Roddy White	51	28	0.55
Wes Welker	33	18	0.55
Steve Smith	32	17	0.53
Vincent Jackson	37	19	0.51
Reggie Wayne	39	20	0.51
Dwayne Bowe	39	20	0.51
Brandon Stokley	39	20	0.51
Laveranues Coles	26	13	0.50
Jason Avant	26	13	0.50
Anquan Boldin	34	17	0.50
Davone Bess	25	12	0.48
Patrick Crayton	25	12	0.48
Andre Johnson	30	14	0.47
Donald Driver	39	18	0.46
DeSean Jackson	37	17	0.46
Santonio Holmes	44	20	0.45
Isaac Bruce	40	18	0.45
Jerricho Cotchery	34	15	0.44
Bernard Berrian	26	11	0.42
Brandon Marshall	43	18	0.42
Amani Toomer	25	10	0.40
Brandon Jones	30	12	0.40
Lance Moore	35	14	0.40
Chad Ochocinco	28	11	0.39
Devin Hester	29	11	0.38
Antonio Bryant	46	17	0.37
Mark Clayton	28	10	0.36
Kevin Walter	34	12	0.35
Bobby Engram	26	9	0.35
Justin McCareins	26	9	0.35
Muhsin Muhammad	35	12	0.34
Braylon Edwards	38	13	0.34
Santana Moss	35	11	0.31
Terrell Owens	43	13	0.30
Calvin Johnson	45	13	0.29
Torry Holt	39	9	0.23

In 2008, 44 NFL receivers were targeted 25 or more times on Third Down. Collectively, Quarterbacks threw 1,509 passes their way. They converted 687 into first downs, for an average conversion rate of 46%. Brandon Marshall earned 18 first downs on 43 third-down targets - a success rate of 42%. That figure places him 28th in the group.

Overall, Marshall is in the middle or the bottom of the pack for every statistic that describes a specialized wide-receiver skill. He did not catch a particularly large number of the balls thrown his way. His receptions went for short yardage. And on third down, he moved the chains at a below-average rate. On none of the receiving statistics above did he rank above 28th in the NFL.

So am I saying he's a lousy receiver, and that the Broncos should kick him to the curb? No. I think he can flourish, and mightily, in the McDaniels system. My analysis is not the most charitable. He probably should not be blamed for Cutler forcing the ball to him as often as Cutler did. The problems of the Jeremy Bates scheme are not his fault. And yet those problems are the reason why Marshall, despite the many what-ifs surrounding his future performance - can he stay healthy? Will he give his all to the team? Will he stay on the roster? Will he stay out of lock-up? - is demanding his payday. If Cutler had spread the ball around more or the Broncos had called more running plays (as they should have), his numbers would not be so gaudy. As the tables above show, the single most impressive thing about Marshall's on-field performance was the number of times Jay Cutler threw him the ball.

Marshall's talent captivates me. I want him to succeed. And I want him to do it in a Broncos uniform. But when weighing the many risks of his future against the documented inefficiency of his production with the Broncos, I don't like the results. I hope the team can keep him this year under his current contract. Barring that, I hope that some other team - hello, Dan Snyder - focuses on his upside rather than his production. Because I fear that's the only way the Broncos will get maximum value out of this gifted, frustrating athlete.

Let’s face it: Even if you subscribe to the “Best Player Available” draft philosophy, it can be hard to watch. The logic behind each and every Broncos’ pick made sense to me. Yet I can’t tally the number of times I nearly spat out my coffee when they moved up to trade a player who wasn’t a Defensive End or Inside Linebacker.

 

Then I looked more closely at the nubmers for 2008. And I really liked what I saw. Below is a chained series of second-order statistics about the 2008 Broncos. These are culled from NFL.com, Football Reference, and Football Outsiders (references available upon request). After looking through these, I am very comfortable in arguing that the 2009 draft:

 

 

a) Will have more positive impact on the 2009 Broncos than a draft full of D-Lineman would have

 

 

b) Combined the long-term payoff of a best player available strategy with player selections that smartly address the most fixable problems about the 2008 Broncos.

 

 

 

Here’s a more careful read of the numbers, which compiles many of the arguments made by Hoosier Teacher, Broncobear, Ted Bartlett and NYCBroncosFan, and hopefully adds some new points:

 

1)      At 28:43 per game, the Broncos’ ranked 25th in Time of Possession.

 

2)      At 38.8, the Broncos ranked #3 in passing attempts per game

 

3)      The Broncos ranked 28th in rushing attempts per game, totaling just 387.

 

4)      The Ravens, Falcons, Patriots, Panthers and Giants all ran more than 500 times.

 

5)      The Broncos’ offense ranked #24 in turnovers (coughing up the ball 30 times).

 

6)      Broncos’ rushers lost 12 fumbles, a figure good for 20th place in the NFL

 

7)      Fully 29% of the rushes attempted against the Broncos went for 10 yards or more. This figure ranks dead last in the NFL

 

8)      The Broncos allowed 20 rushes of 20 yards or more, ranking 29th in the NFL

 

9)      The Broncos allowed 6 rushes of 40 yards or more, tying for 31st in the NFL

 

10)   The Broncos “stuffed” opponents – holding them to zero or negative yardage on first down and less than a quarter of the yardage needed for a new set of downs on second through fourth downs – 24% of the time. This figure ranks 16th in the NFL

 

11)   The Broncos ranked tenth in the NFL at stopping opposing rushers on 3rd or 4th down with two yards or less to go

 

12)   In statistical terms, the Broncos’ 2008 rushing defense skews left. Atypical for a team with high average yards against, the Broncos ranked in the middle of the pack on cutting running plays short. The high rushing average against the Broncos is a product of the ease with which opponents turned 4- and 5-yard gains into 10- and 15-yard gains.

13)  At minus-17, the Broncos ranked 32nd in turnovers.

 

14)  Playing without Champ Bailey for a good portion of the year, the Broncos’ defense ranked 23rd in the NFL in yardage given up to another team’s top Receiver.

 

15)  The Broncos’ defense ranked 29th against #2 Receivers, 30th against #3 Receivers, and 31st against Tight Ends.

 

16)  The Broncos’ defense intercepted 6 passes all year. Only Detroit intercepted fewer.

 

17)  The Broncos’ defense gave up just 6 passing plays of 40 yards or more, a figure that ties for ninth in the NFL.

 

18)  The Broncos’ defense gave up 41 passing plays of 20 yards or more, a figure that ranks 15th in the NFL.

 

19)  Avert your eyes on virtually all other passing statistics.

 

20)  Adjusting for the distortions of high altitude, the Broncos’ special teams ranked 32nd in the NFL – and by a comfortable margin – in total yardage impact (this according to Football Outsiders, whom I trust immensely).

 

21)  The Broncos’ special teams were worse in preventing return yardage than in generating it.

 

22)  A total of eight AFC teams apart from the Broncos will run 3-4 defenses (or hybrids thereof) in 2009. These include the Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Dolphins and Chargers.

 

23)  Put another way, five of the six AFC playoff teams, and eight of the last nine superbowl entrants, run 30 fronts.

 

That’s a lot of information, and I’m no head coach. But I will argue strongly that four specific team weaknesses emerge from the chart above. And that the draft picks do a remarkable job of addressing the weaknesses.

 

First, the 2008 Broncos hurt for ball control (tip of the hat to Ted Bartlett, HT, and everyone else who identified this point). The defense spent a lot of time on the field. And remarkably, Broncos running were near the top of the league in coughing the ball up, despite the fact that they were near the bottom of the league in carries. Flooding the team with new running backs potentially solves several problems at once: It improves time of possession and eliminates part of the horrific turnover problem. It will take the pressure off Orton (it is entirely noteworthy that the Patriots offense on which Matt Cassell flourished last year was a top-five offense in rushing attempts).

 

Second, the rushing defense was terrible in specific ways that the new regime has taken great care to address. Yes, the Broncos gave up five yards per carry, and yes it’s unacceptable. And while we all want more and better beef on the defensive line, the breakdown of the distribution of rushes against the Broncos suggest that the need isn’t as urgent as we thought. As many posters here noted last year, and as the McDaniels team identified when it took over the Broncos, terrible play at middle linebacker and terrible tackling by the secondary played a huge role in the running-defense breakdowns. I’ll put it another way: If the tackling behind the defensive line had been merely average, the running defense would have improved from 30th in the league to middle-of-the-pack.

 

And so we are no presented with new starters at MLB and both safety positions. Dre Bly was swapped for a cornerback who’s better in run support (among other merits). Alphonso Smith is good in run support. And so on. I’m a big believer in investing in the defensive line, but the numbers said the most glaring problem in run support originated in the backfield.

 

Third, the strategy of drafting pass defenders who will cover #3 and #4 WRs and TEs also seems well fitted the problems with the Broncos’ pass defense. The pass defense on the whole was wretched. But again, the story is more complicated. We all know there was a lack of pressure on the QB. The most obvious response has been to draft Ayers and shift to a defensive alignment that provides more options for rushing the passer. But adding Smith and McBath fits this strategy, too. The statistics tell us what our eyes told us all year: it wasn’t the #1 receiver we needed to fear, it was the second and third receiving options, and, above all else, the tight end. I can’t speak to the coverage skills of whoever the new LB corps will be on game day. But drafting two skilled pass defenders who will contribute heavily on third down – you know, the down when the Broncos just couldn’t get off the field – sure seems like a good fit for the problems out there. If you’re ready to pound your keyboard and yell about the pass rush now, please stop. They drafted a highly rated pass rusher in the first round, remember?

 

Fourth, if you adjust for the skewing impact of altitude, the Broncos’ special teams were even worse than we thought they were. Smith, McBath, McKinley, Bruton are all noted special teams contributors.

Fifth, the road to the Super Bowl is paved with domineering 3-4 fronts. Richard Quinn rates as a fantastic blocker at a position that’s key to stopping 3-4 rushes (which can avoid or work around monsters like Clady if properly used).

 

There are a host of other arguments to be made about the draft strategy. Richard Quinn and the trade of a #1 in 2010 were probably part of some cap-management strategy designed to free up future money for Royal and Clady. The available DL prospects underwhelmed. For better or worse, team McXanders really likes Ronnie Fields and Andra Davis.

 

My argument is that the most readily fixable problems with the 2008 Broncos were:

 

Ball control

Turnovers (on both sides of the ball)

Long rushes against

Pass plays targeted against nickel backs, dime backs and safeties

Special teams

 

The draft executed this weekend maximized value by avoiding reaches for front-seven players. That’s good in the long run. But in the short run, it a actually goes a long way to fixing what was most broken with the 2008 Broncos.

I think we all knew this was coming. Six men were elected to the Hall of Fame today, and none was Shannon Sharpe.

Here's the link: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3874838

I guess they'll have to wait for some other TE to completely redefine the position in order for him to make it in on the first ballot.

In case you want to fuel your rage, here' s a link to his stats:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SharSh00.htm

When he was young, he played in conservative offenses doing business in a league that did not have the passing sophistication of today's game. A person can only wonder what the guy's stats would be like if he'd entered the league 5-6 years later and played through the pass-wacky period of today.

Now, I personally try to minimize the amount of time I spend obsessing over the Hall of Fame's indifference to the Broncos. But as a grown man who had to live in Boston for one painful year (fun details below) the following issue drives me to distraction:

Why is Andre Tippett in the Hall of Fame when Simon Fletcher hasn't got a sniff?

That's an honest question. There may be unmistakable reasons why Tippett was head-and-shoulders better. Their heydays in the NFL coincided with Junior High School for me, so I make no claims to possessing a holistic interpretation of their overall contributions as 3-4 linebackers. What I do have is stats. And the stats say that Tippett recorded 100 sacks in 12 seasons (8.33 per), while Fletcher notched 97.5 in 11 (8.86 per). We also know that Fletcher was an excellent tackler through the middle of his career (average better than 100 per year from 88-93), although his final 12 sacks over the '94 and '95 seasons came primarily in a specialist's pass-rushing role.

Can anybody out there who watched the game with an eye for detail in the late '80s and early '90s explain the difference between the two players? I'm not alleging a theory of media bias here. I just want to know what made Tippett such the clearly superior player.

OK, and while I'm at it, does anybody have stories to share about so-called Patriots fans? In the one year (2007-2008) I did time in Boston, I watched a lot of football games in bars. And I talked to lots of self-declared life-long Patriots fans. True exchanges from those conversations:

Chibronx: Now that I moved here, I've looked into Patriots history. I didn't know that Jim Plunkett was originally drafted by the Pats.

Die-Hard, Hardcore Pats Fan: Jim Plunkett?

Or:

Chibronx: So tell me, who all was on that '85 Pats team?

Hardcore Lives-and-Dies-by-the-Pats Fan: Um, Steve Grogan?

Chibronx: Right, and Craig James and Irving Friar and Andre Tippett. But somebody else must have had a really good year for them to make the Superbowl, right?

Rabid, Slobbering Pats Fan: I don't know.

And on and on....

Feel free to weigh in on either topic!