I know there are certain factors that may make moving Roberto Luongo difficult for the Canucks, but would it be the correct move? With all factors remaining equal (ie. health, contract, Luongo's approval etc.), should the Canucks deal Cory Schneider or Luongo?

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One of the biggest chasms between traditional hockey coverage and advanced analytics is the art of storytelling. The media has always been trusted with the responsibility of setting the narrative and with it, crafting history. When a six year old sat in their living room in the 50's, they imagined their heroes as 9 foot giants, their minds were an empty canvas, available to be coloured by the reporters of the time.

Unfortunately, the lack of access blinded everybody to the fact that the reporters were not a collection of artists like Van Gogh, da Vinci or Monet, but an army of Bob Ross' painting over a set template. For some reason as access increased through the invention of the TV, VCRs and NHL Gamecenter, the same beliefs and myth making have held true. Fans love to pass down stories from generation to generation. They don't care about perspective or truth, they prefer their childhood heroes to remain giants of the game and because of this are open to fighting those who would suggest the world is round, not flat.

The Bob Ross template is so rigid that it seems every generation has their goaltender who somehow weasels his way into or close to the Hall of Fame without really earning it. A goaltender who drafts off the wake of their teammates to ultimate glory.

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This is just a quick hit in reference to a discussion that took place in the comments section on Andrew's piece today on the Habs and their draft success. If you haven't read it, go read it, then come back and take a look at this.

In the message thread I brought up Roy vs. Brodeur and tried to place the comparison in proper context. A straight up comparison of their SV% favours Brodeur, but when you measure the success against their peers and the era the comparison is altered significantly.

This is a measure of goaltender to peers per season. Patrick Roy's .900 SV% lead the league in 1988, so it isn't fair to offer that as a straight comparable to 2012 where it would place you tied with James Reimer for 68th.

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Time to break out an old gimmick to look at last night's return of the prodigal son.

Unfortunately the return involved the Canadiens treating Halak more politely than any time during his Canadiens tenure. I still believe that the Price vs. Halak debate is going to bubble up and I wouldn't be surprised if it is sooner rather than later based on the perfect ingredients brewing in Ken Hitchcock's pot.

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With Jaroslav Halak returning to Montreal tonight, I thought I would offer up a preview image of an article that I was working on when all of Montreal was shocked with the Halak trade.

The article ended up taking a slightly different approach with the same basic premise. The title was changed from "Five reasons why the Canadiens shouldn't trade Carey Price" to "Five Good Reasons Carey Price is Still in Montreal". Some new imagery and some editing and all the research wasn't wasted.

I don't really know how close the Canadiens came to really trading Price, but I was happy at the time and remain happy with their decision today.

I am not sure when this debate will finally be put to rest. Eller's emergence has dulled the debate somewhat, but I have a feeling it isn't done just yet.

The Tampa Bay Lightning was used because it was at the height of the Vincent Lecavalier rumours and a rumour had come out that Gainey had offered Tomas Plekanec and Price but was turned down!!

Can the Canadiens make the playoffs?

The emotional response is YES! Did you see Lars Eller the other night? We are back baby!

The rational response is "in order to qualify for the playoffs, the Canadiens who are a .470 hockey team need to play like a .650 team and this is not going to happen".

I have issues with both responses.

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Where have all the Quebec goaltenders gone?

Eric Duhatschek posed this question in today's Globe and Mail and offered up the same conclusion that the majority of media has assumed for over a decade.

Suddenly it was cool to be a goalie in Quebec. The best athletes gravitated to the position, and although Roy didn’t have a huge influence on Martin Brodeur, who was well on his way by then, he did on the players who came next.

The simple answer isn't that "the best athletes" went into the crease, it is that the best training in the world was centered out of Montreal and Montreal happens to be located in the province of Quebec.

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With the Habs terrible shootout record there has been tons of talk among our game threads about what Carey Price needs to do to improve the Canadiens chance of winning these glorified coin flips. There has been a consensus in that we believe that Price needs to be more aggressive with his depth and occasionally guess, creating a challenge for shooters who seem to have been able to exploit his predictability. We also have noticed that Price has been susceptible to opponents moving him to his left and placing a quick backhand through his legs while he is in transition.

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If you asked Canadiens fans and media who the most useless player on the team is, you would likely get the answer Scott Gomez. If you ask that question here you will get a different response.

Last weekend I posted about process versus result and introduced how Fenwick results correlate strongly to playoff participation. As the league moves towards fewer powerplays, even strength production and possession becomes a strong predictor of future success.

The first year after the lockout, the league awarded 23,679 penalty minutes. It resulted in plummeting save percentages (.901 league average, in 2012 it is .913) and 2545 powerplay goals.

That number has plummeted over the last 4 seasons and with it the success of teams who rely heavily on special teams to qualify for the playoffs

The 2008-2010 Canadiens managed to succeed with poor Fenwick numbers because of elite special teams. With the hiring of Martin the possession stats began to climb to the point where I believed with a healthy roster that they were legitimate Cup contenders.

Even with the loss of Markov the Canadiens managed to avoid disaster and although the results indicated a desperate/terrible team, the process indicated every thing was okay. They were controlling the play for the majority of time and their Fenwick numbers were strong.

I noticed in my graphic on the weekend that the Fenwick number had steadily declined over the last 2-3 weeks. After last night's uninspiring performance against the Blue Jackets I wondered where the slippage began.

I looked at both significant Fenwick declines and they measured up consistently with local millionaire and whipping boy Scott Gomez's absence. This could be a coincidence, but Gomez has a strong history of positive puck possession so it could be that he isn't as useless as the fans believe. I used a couple scripts and crunched some numbers and came up with the following visual to display team Fenwick with and without Gomez.

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For somebody growing up outside of Montreal I was of the belief that I was missing out because I lacked access to a media that covered the Canadiens. When Montreal Canadiens communities sprung up all over the web and the Gazette entered my radar I thought all my problems were solved.

Life was simple. Leaf fans were stupid, Hab fans were smart and I could finally interact with my proper herd. Unfortunately access only opened me up to the reality that we are all the same irrational emotional beings. Dumb Leaf fans were not dumb because they were Leaf fans, they were dumb because they were dumb. I found the equivalent to every columnist and type of Leaf fan wearing Bleu, Blanc et Rouge through my new access.

The only difference that I noticed between the two franchises was totally based on environment. One fanbase was spoiled, one was longing to be spoiled. At one point in time a Canadiens fan was justified to be arrogant, entitled and dismissive of Leaf fans and Leaf fans were justified in being envious, jealous and resentful. Those days are no longer valid, yet they still exist because of environment.

This environment of expectation continues to poison todays coverage of the Canadiens. As of right now the Canadiens are 3 points behind the Leafs, one city is going crazy with blame, fear and prophecies of disaster, the other fanbase is puffing out their chest and printing off Kessel for MVP t-shirts.

All of this is emotional irrational behaviour and analysis.

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I have long given up the fight trying to convince the emotional mind to produce rational thought. If one made their life goal to fight this fight and lived in the city of Montreal they would find themselves in the madhouse very quickly.

The emotional fan tends to jump to scapegoating and simplistic conclusions. Fire Jacques Martin. Bring back Kirk Muller, he and his zero head coaching experience was responsible for the success, not the coach who had more than 500 wins before Captain Kirk arrived in Montreal. This is happening because they let go their best 38 year old defenseman, look how the team who finishes with 100+ points every year is doing with him in their lineup now. 

Six games is not a representative sample size, if it was then Gauthier is an idiot for allowing Marc Andre Bergeron to walk, he is on pace for 105 points. The Canadiens since the lockout usually get out to a roaring start and then collapse mid-season, requiring a strong stretch run to sneak into the playoffs. That enough should offer enough proof that a poor six game stretch can take place at any point in an 82 game season and derail a playoff run.

Using the time-machine called shrpsports.com I have gone back and looked at the Canadiens early season results and compared and analyzed them to their final standing (sarcasm and sacred cows are highlighted in black). Let's start with the post-lockout Canadiens .

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The number one entry on this list is not a surprise. In a repeat of last season, the EOTP contributors once again selected Carey Price as the top player under 25 in the Montreal Canadiens system. One second place vote denied Price a unanimous ranking by the panel and a slight improvement on 2010. 

In 2011 we witnessed the resurrection  of Jesus Price, a re-birth that seemed less than obvious when we selected Price as the number one player under 25 a year ago. Even though evidence existed to convince us that history was on Price's side, you can never judge a players character or desire to meet his physical potential. Trying to interpret body language is a fools game and with the intense pressure that manifested itself in pre-season booing, fans were left with trusting his elite physical tool-set and hoping for mental maturation. Not all fans chose to offer that trust, Price rewarded those who did with a Vezina worthy campaign in 2011, as well as taking the first step in exorcising his playoff demons.

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As a goaltender, nothing frustrates me more when a goaltender gets blamed or labelled "soft" or "weak" on a goal that is not their fault. The fact that it is usually not followed up with a reason doesn't help.

I did my best to convince Kevin that the goal was the result of a perfect shot by Sam Gagner and as a goaltender himself, I don't think it will take much to get him to come around. At the time I thought Carey Price had played it as well as he could, after watching the replay of the gamecast and the reverse view I still felt the same way.

Not being a goaltender, it is easy to see why many would view it in this manner. Price was in a tough situation to start (caused by P.K. Subban's terrible rookie decision) and I want to illustrate why I think he handled it about as well as he could and was vicitimized by an unbelievably accurate shot by Gagner.

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As always, when the Canadiens are winning there is very little complaining, but once the losses begin to mount the mob mentality takes over and the search for answers begin. For now the usual scapegoat, Carey Price has been replaced with the struggling duo of Scott Gomez and Brian Gionta.

As everybody jumps on the $13M combo, I noticed one individual refusing to pile on. Over at the H Does Not Stand For Habs there was an interesting rant by EOTP regular MathMan in regards to the dynamic duo. J.T had implied that Gomez was not being demoted because of his salary and Math Man took her to task with the following:

MathMan said...

Warning: rant ahead.

I have had it to up here with this nonsense about how Gomez and Gionta are playing poorly and aren't giving the team what they want. This entire situation is a massive, massive argument for microstats and just plain scoring chances and not focussing so much on plain offensive production.

Gionta and Gomez are both playing perfectly fine. They're outchancing their opposition. Gomez is setting up Gionta very well and Gionta is racking up four shots a game and a stupid number of scoring chances....

The rest of the rant can be read here.

The majority of the hockey world has not caught on to the new statistics that are changing the way we view the game. From intense breakdowns by Gabriel Desjardins at behindthenet hockey and the dedicated over at the Copper and Blue, their work was influential to my Price/Halak pieces from last season.

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With Carey Price's strong start, the Jaroslav Halak backlash has moved away from him and begun to shift to Lars Eller. On TSN, the "expert" panel debated if the Canadiens had received "enough" in Lars Eller. Bob Mackenzie (who I respect a lot) mentioned how they should have acquired David Perron, T.J. Oshie or Patrik Berglund as they are guaranteed top 6 forwards, whereas Eller "could develop into" a top 6 forward.

All of the aforementioned players were St. Louis Blues first rounders. The highest drafted one.... Lars Eller. I don't understand what has occurred in the past three seasons to push Eller so drastically behind the other three. All three players have yet to fully develop, so it is puzzling to see these type of declarations made so early after the trade. Judging an NHL forward at 21 would lead you to believe that player like Tomas Plekanec, Henrik Sedin or Pavel Datsyuk would never see themselves past the third line.

The Canadiens were lucky that Glen "I'm resting on my laurels" Sather viewed the 22 year old Jozef Balej as a better player and opted for him over the 22 year old Plekanec in the Alex Kovalev deal. The jury is still out on who will be the best among those four forwards in 3-4 seasons, it is also still out on who will be better between Price and Halak, so I am certainly not ready to judge or get worked up about this deal after 1 month of the season.

Which leads to the question of "What were the media/fans expectations on the return for Jaroslav Halak"? If the expectation was for a top line forward, then you were destined to be disappointed.

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• Some critical words for PK, none of which I have issue with. 

• Apron Basu with more Spezza/Martin and the concept of development versus winning. 

• How relevant/accurate is a ranking system that has the Leafs at number 6?

• The real story of the 2010 season so far. Ignore the Price storyline, this team will live and die with it's 5 on 5 play. Championship contenders are solid at even strength and strong 5 on 5 results make the goaltender look better than he is.

• LOL. Brodeur complaining about the Devils lack of defense. Selling out the defense that put him in the Hall of Fame, bad form Marty. Sounds very similar to 2009 sensation Scott Clemmensen's rant in Florida last season.

• Canadiens Children's Foundation: Announced funding for a new rink in Hayward Park (LaSalle). It's the fourth outdoor rink project that the foundation has been involved with.

• Why do I have the feeling that this story will not go away. I still think the Habs should have treated Boucher in the same manner that they would have treated Price and Subban. They were cut throat in trading Huet and Halak in order to assure Price would remain in the organization, Boucher should have been no different. This doesn't mean I agree with firing Martin, but an ascension plan and overpaying him would have sufficed.

• As much as I am a fan of Carey Price, this is the type of hyperbole that lead to his horrific media lead collapse that his image suffered over the last 20 months. Saturday's win against the Senators had NOTHING to do with Carey Price. The narrative of that game should be the complete and utter domination the Canadiens displayed. After going ahead 3-1 the Senators had 6 shots, 3 of which came from 40+ feet. In 30 minutes they gave up two scoring chances and people are talking about the "mental toughness" of Price for stopping a 2 on 1. This is the second time this season that the Canadiens have come back and actually provided offense and had they not, the narrative would be focused on the goals he did not stop, not his mental toughness on the ones he did. Everybody is fuzzy about his start this season, if Fleury had not handed them a gift W in Pittsburgh and the Habs scored 2 or less for him against Ottawa like they did the majority of last season how sharp would the knives be right now? His SV% is .914 to last seasons .912, his goals against average is marginally better and now he is a hero? Let's report what happens on the ice, not the redemption story that we all want to happen.

• The rebirth of Brother Andrei has a million layers. This onion needs to be peeled. Andrei Kostitsyn was drafted ahead of Carter, Richards, Getzlaf etc. The Sergei distraction. His mob connections, contract year and his fantastic mullet and one word interviews need to be examined further.

• Did you know the Leafs were 4-0? The media needs to cover this, I don't think that Europe knows. Now that the Carey Price win counter is dead, what is the next rationalization Leaf Nation will create to compensate for 40+ years of sucking?

• Bulldogs send two to Wheeling. The Hamilton Bulldogs sent defencemen Sebastien Bisaillon and David Urquhart to the Wheeling Nailers (ECHL) on Monday.

Interesting graphic over at Pension Plan Puppets. You know, Price being 0-2 since his last home win.

Leaf fans mocking Hab fans is kind of like a double leg amputee mocking somebody for spraining their ankle isn't it?

Maybe we should create a custom counter like this for the Bleu, Blanc et Lose.

(note: To clarify for the Leaf fans who have come to spam)

This is an image to show that I should create a countdown clock in order to show the last time the Leafs won the Stanley Cup.

This one is for the counter to show the last time the Leafs made the playoffs.

and this one was for the days that have passed since you chose Justin Pogge over Tuukka Rask.

I hope that is enough clarification for you.

Nah, reality might really upset them.

• • •

Here are the rest of the daily links.

• Apron Basu on the parallels between Subban and Spezza.

• St. Louis Gametime, hey look, Jaro isn't perfect!

• D'ago! 3 goals in 3 games! How long before the revisionist history kicks in and fans become angry about this trade?

• Only Benny could rationalize this as non-punishment. Wouldn't it have made more sense for Leaf fans to make fun of the amount of games it has taken for Pouliot to score? We are at 28 and counting. 

• I always loved Higgins. I am kind of shocked of how much a non-factor he has become.

You think anybody is concerned with the three goals on eight shots that Carey Price gave up to the Bruins in September right now? Unfortunately, it would be just as ridiculous for Price supporters to get as high after the Pens game as all those who jumped all over Price for his low against the Bruins.

It was an encouraging sign, but the fanbase reacted to Saturday like he has never done it before. Price was outstanding to open the 2010 season and followed up two outstanding games with a 7-1 loss. Price had an outstanding November/December and fell apart in January and after one of his greatest starts of his career against the Sharks last March failed to get out of the first period three nights later.

Saturday night offered some encouraging signs. His footwork and positioning were brilliant and it is always a good sign when his logo looks like a magnet for the puck. Going over the highlights on Gamecenter I was impressed with Price's ability to square up to the puck and control his rebounds by either absorbing them in his mid section or by pushing shots to the corners with an active stick and outstanding pad control, a stark contrast to the monster rebounds that were being kicked out by the over rated Fleury.

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Throughout the season I will attempt to cover Price in depth. Not only for my own enjoyment, but as part of a bigger project I am working on as well as an attempt to curb the nonsense that I read last night with the same droning fools blaming him for the loss.

So with a beer in one hand and NHL GameCenter Live in the other I took a detailed look at the Canadiens opener with an eye at breaking down Price's performance.

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Although the fanbase has rallied around Carey Price temporarily warding off the spirit of Jaroslav Halak, there is still a lot of hostility bubbling beneath the surface waiting to arise should the Canadiens stumble.

I can understand why the Canadiens made the decision they made. If they had waited 5 months and Halak struggled, would they have missed the window of cashing in on his post season success? 40-50 games can significantly alter the perception of a player around the league. Look at Tomas Plekanec and how the fanbase viewed him in October and how they viewed him in February when he was in the top 10 in scoring and averaging a point per game. When Halak first went public with his trade demand, fans were expecting a 2nd round pick, four months later they were angry with a 1st and 3rd rounder. So perception can change quickly and drastically alter trade value.

Looking back to June, the Canadiens would have been foolish to trade Price after 3 years of investment in his future growth when he is coming off a 13 win season. The return on investment would be too low. When adding in the ability to contractually control him for another four seasons, the cap implications of possibly losing Plekanec had they kept Halak and Price had advantages that made the decision harder than most fans perceived.

I am not here to present the decision to keep Carey Price as the obvious choice. I favoured trying to re-sign both goaltenders and waiting until the trade deadline to make a decision. I didn't think it was wise to deal either goaltender during the summer because of the possible franchise changing elements of such a deal. If Price continued to struggle in 2011 after a disastrous 60 games, it would be a continuing sign that at 23 he is not ready to pay the price to meet his potential. If Halak continued his post season success your decision becomes easy. If the situation plays out opposite, once again the decision is easy. If they both excel, your decision is easy. It was definitely the risk averse method to dealing with the Canadiens goaltending depth with the added bonus of not alienating the impatient fanbase.

Pierre Gauthier decided to be aggressive and with his decision left himself open to massive criticism should the Canadiens struggle in 2011. While the majority of the media and fanbase feel he made a bad decision, I will not kill him for the decision he made. Ultimately, none of us will know if he made the right decision for 2-3 seasons.

What I do know is that there is plenty of evidence to justify his aggressive decision. Do I know if these were factors in his decision? No. I have zero inside knowledge about either players character, demands or work ethic. For all I know, Pierre Gauthier used the Eeny, meeny, miny, moe method. Even so, it doesn't make the following reasons any less valid.

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Was anybody surprised by the irrational nonsense we witnessed on Wednesday?

Carey Price was not. During his interview yesterday he mentioned how "It's just the way it is here, it hasn't changed in the last 50 years, I don't know why it's going to change in the next 50 days" Was this Price rationalizing away his struggles or was there truth to his statement?

SInce 1955 the Canadiens have had the strongest run of All-Star goaltending in the NHL. No fewer than 4 Hall of Famers and 9 Vezina winners have patrolled the blue paint. Yet there always seems to be a goaltending controversy in the city.

Only 1 starting goaltender has retired with the franchise in the last 55 years. Names like Jacques Plante, Gump Worsley and Rogie Vachon finished their careers in other uniforms. Patrick Roy spent the second half of his Hall of Fame career in a hockey market that did not exist during the first half of his career. His heir apparent, Jocelyn Thibault begged out of town in 1998 after 10 games (3 of which he was named the first star and 2 more in which he was one of the 3 stars) because the fans would not let him forget who he was traded for. So the "sophisticated" Montreal fanbase ran Roy our of town for not being good enough and then ran Thibault out of town for not being as good as the previous guy who wasn't good enough.

What would an individual have to accomplish in order to fulfill the enormous expectations thrust upon them by this ravenous fanbase? People seem to assume that Jaroslav Halak would have been immune to this type of pressure, but would he? History suggests he would have been a victim of the same ridiculous expectations as soon as he did not duplicate his 2010 playoff run. I was at Game 4 against Philadelphia last season and the Canadiens (including Halak) after a brilliant playoff run were booed off the ice, a stark contrast to the standing ovation Jose Theodore received after giving up 4 goals to the Canes in 2002. Halak wasn't even afforded a 1 game grace.

What exactly are the expectations for the starting goaltender of the Montreal Canadiens?

I played around with the notion of creating a Frankengoalie, taking parts from all the Canadiens goaltenders of the last 50 years to create the ideal candidate. Plante's puck handling and bravery, Roy's legs and glove, Dryden's mask, Theo's hair, but would that be enough?

What is enough? Would an MVP award and a Vezina be enough to provide the benefit of the doubt? Would 2 Stanley Cups, 2 Conn Smythe trophies and 3 Vezinas be enough? Would 6 Stanley Cups in 8 seasons be enough?

The answer is no, no and no.

In 2002 Jose Theodore won the NHL MVP, the Vezina trophy and lead the Canadiens to a first round upset of the 8th seeded Boston Bruins even though the Habs were outshot 212-142 over 6 games. He staked the Canadiens to a 2-1 series lead against the Canes even though the Canadiens had been outshot 118-61 through 3 games. Two seasons later Theodore once again knocked of the 2nd seeded Bruins in a monumental upset. 38 games later he was gone, booed out of town. HIs asset depreciated to a level where the fanbase thought that acquiring David Aebischer represented a victory.

Entering the 1993 playoffs Roy owned 1 Stanley Cup, 1 Conn Smythe and 3 Vezina trophies. With the Canadiens trailing the Nordiques 2-0 the Gazette ran a poll asking the fanbase to choose the starting goaltender for Game 3. The overwhelming choice? Andre "Red Light" Racicot. Two months later, the fanbase were made to look like impatient, irrational fools. Two years later Roy had 2 Stanley Cups, 2 Conn Smythe trophies, 3 Vezina trophies and a career record of 323-199-68. He suffered a poor night in goal against the Red Wings and the fanbase booed him off the ice, not to be seen in uniform again until 15 years later when a bloated version appeared for the Canadiens 100th Anniversary warmup.

It doesn't end there. 16 years earlier Ken Dryden entered the Stanley Cup Finals with a career record of 258-57-74. He had a playoff record of 77-32 and had won 17 of the 19 playoff series he started. After a game one loss to the NY Rangers the following occurred.

 from sports illustrated

For Dryden and the Canadiens, it was one giant step backward in the 4-1 opening loss to the Rangers, then a small step backward in the first minutes of Game 2 last Tuesday night when the Rangers surged to a 2-0 lead. Dryden, who played erratically throughout the Boston series, had been lifted after the second period of Game 1, having surrendered all four goals. Michel (Bunny) Larocque, his longtime backup, was scheduled to play Game 2, his first playoff start since 1974.

But with exactly one minute to go in the pregame warmup, Doug Risebrough fired a rising shot that cracked the plastic of Larocque's cage mask and crashed against the goaltender's forehead. Down went Larocque. "It was like walking on a boat with the sea really moving," he said after he had returned from the hospital, his brow a purplish brown.

Dryden was greeted by a chorus of boos when announced as the Montreal goaltender, and when two of the Rangers' first three shots went past him, the Forum fans rose and shook their programs at him threateningly. Leading 2-0 after only seven minutes of play, the precocious Rangers were entertaining thoughts of a two-game sweep in Montreal, a four-game sweep of the series and New York's first Stanley Cup in 39 years.

So a goaltender who lost 89 of 552 games was booed in Montreal. The fanbase and all their wisdom had decided that Bunny Larocque should lead the Canadiens to Stanley Cup glory. The genius of the fanbase wanted to replace a goaltender who lost 16% of the games he started with a goaltender who would produce a 32-50-17 record after the 1979 Stanley Cup Finals.

If the fanbase did this, what will it take for anybody to satisfy this demand?

The simple answer is a goaltender who can produce a record of 82-0, 0.00 GAA and a 1.000 SV%

With the understanding that no goaltender will ever be perfect, the alternative is to scour Europe for a goaltender named BOULE (no accent on the E) who doesn't speak english or french and cannot read. With zero access to media reports and the misguided notion that crowd is saying Booooooool and not Booo, the Canadiens crease would be stress free and his confidence would be regularly bolstered by the fanbase cheering his name.

Unfortunately, until this man is found, the fanbase will continue to destroy the confidence of whomever patrols the crease.

My recommendation for Carey Price, wear headphones like Patrick Roy did, just never take them off.

Perfection is the only thing that will stop the irrational hatred. If Price can come to terms with never being able to satisfy the impossible expectation of perfection placed on him, then he will be fine. Halak has been deified regardless of future success with the Blues, it is a ghost that can only be vanquished by starting a long playoff march of his own.

If the Canadiens can not replicate success in the next 2 seasons, he will likely be gone by the age of 25 and the cycle can begin again.

The parallels between 2010 and 1993 are everywhere.

• Underdog team that was expected to lose in the first round. Check.

• Small scrappy forward playing the best hockey of his career and leading a team to upsets. Check.

• Unknown goaltender who took the starting job mid-season and lead the team to a strong playoff run. Check

• New coach who struggled to install his system only to watch his team blossom in the playoffs. Check. 

If you think I am referencing the Montreal Canadiens, Kirk Muller, Patrick Roy and Jacques Demers, you are wrong. I am referencing the 1993 Toronto Maple Leafs cinderella run lead by Doug Gilmour, Felix Potvin and Pat Burns.

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The parallels between 2010 and 1993 are everywhere.

• Underdog team that was expected to lose in the first round. Check.

• Small scrappy forward playing the best hockey of his career and leading a team to upsets. Check.

• Unknown goaltender who took the starting job mid-season and lead the team to a strong playoff run. Check

• New coach who struggled to install his system only to watch his team blossom in the playoffs. Check. 

I am not talking about the Montreal Canadiens, Kirk Muller, Patrick Roy and Jacques Demers. I am looking to the 1993 Toronto Maple Leafs cinderella run lead by Doug Gilmour, Felix Potvin and Pat Burns.

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Sportsnet is reporting Markov is gone for the playoffs with an ACL tear.

The Globe is reporting it as well.

Montreal Canadiens defenceman Andrei Markov suffered a torn ACL and will be out indefinitely, Sportsnet can confirm.

Markov was injured in Game 1 of the series against Pittsburgh after a check from Penguins forward Matt Cooke. The team sent Markov home for evaluation and was listed as day-to-day.

Markov missed 35 games with a lacerated tendon in his foot at the start of the year. In eight playoff games this spring Markov has four assists.

In late March behindthenethockey.com questioned the value of Markov to the Montreal Canadiens.

While Markov is a good player, he is not this good.  If we attribute all of the improvement to Markov, that would make him worth more than 11 wins, which has a value in excess of $25M.  It's not clear that any NHL player has even been worth that much, even in his best season - more reasonable estimates put Markov at 3-4 wins over an entire season, or 1.5-2 in half of this season. 

Gabriel Desjardins statistical analysis puts his value at 3-4 wins over an 82 game season. I am a big fan of using statistics to help understand the game, but with Markov missing 61 games over the last 5 season and the Canadiens possibly losing Markov for the remainder of the playoffs I decided to go over the Canadiens record during that time period to determine how his absence actually affected the Canadiens during this time.

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Watching the 2010 NHL playoffs has been an enjoyable experience for all Canadiens fan. Watching the Habs continually defy the logic pushed forth by experts and fans (myself included) I have watched with interest as I observe how the media decides to cover events as a novel based on fiction and not as a historical document based on facets of reality. I touched on this in my last article in regards to the deifying of Jaroslav Halak and continue to take interest in the observations based on lack of research.

When the Canadiens were en route to upsetting the Presidents' Trophy-winning Washington Capitals in the first round, some Montreal media began to draw comparisons between Halak's performances and legendary playoff performances of Habs greats like Patrick Roy or Ken Dryden. That may be a bit hyperbolic, since Halak has appeared in just 11 playoff games in his NHL career, but there are suddenly some similarities to the Habs' Cup-winning teams from 1986 and 1993. During those championship runs, the Habs were often the underdogs. They were often outshot and outplayed. Yet with Roy turning in dominant performances almost every night, the Canadiens seemed to possess a quiet calm that allowed them to simply seize whatever moments were presented them and not worry about the rest. (ESPN)

Take the quote above by Scott Burnside as an example (this is not a shot at Burnside, as the media has been bringing up the names of Dryden and Roy since game 6 of round one).

During those championship runs, the Habs were often the underdogs. They were outshot and outplayed. This is hyperbole at it's finest. It is simply false.

Comparison 1 - Ken Dryden 1971

Ask everybody what they remember about 1971 and you will hear tales of Dryden standing on his head and stealing the 1971 Stanley Cup. You will hear about how the Canadiens were a team that were severely overmatched and were placed on the back of an unknown kid named Ken Dryden who stole a Stanley Cup

How accurate is this assertion?

Look at the roster of the 1971 Montreal Canadiens. Without counting Dryden, the Canadiens roster contains 8 Hall of Famers. The 1970 Canadiens missed the playoffs, but the 1969 edition was team that had a core of a team that won 4 championships in 5 seasons. The 1971 Canadiens had 12 players left over from the 1969 Stanley Cup championship team. Does this sound like a team that would leave you shocked if they won the title?

Look at the 1971 Standings. This longshot team finished 4th in a 14 team league. There is no doubt that the 1971 Canadiens were a huge underdog against the powerful Bruins. The Bruins finished 24 points and 109 goals ahead of the Canadiens and had dominated them in the regular season going 5 and 1 and outscoring the Habs 29-14.

This is where the legend was born. I did not witness the series. I have seen the highlights of Dryden making huge saves and by all accounts he was spectacular. That being said, the Canadiens scored 28 goals over 7 games, they overcame a 5-1 deficit in Game 2 to win 7-5 and gave up 26 goals over 7 games. I have no doubt that he made a difference in the series, but nobody ever mentions Frank Mahovlich's 7 goals and 6 assists in the same series. If you remove the Big M from the series, is anybody convinced that the Canadiens win that series? So let's come to the conclusion that he didn't single handidly win the series as history would have us believe.

The Canadiens entered the second round facing the Minnesota North Stars, hardly a favourite. They then entered the Stanley Cup Finals against the Chicago Blackhawks. The Blackhaws had a 10 point advantage against the Canadiens entering the Finals, but the season series was a 3-3 split with the Canadiens outscoring the Hawks 20-17. Over 7 games the shot totals favoured the Hawks 227-209.

Is a team with 9 Hall of Famers, 12 returning members of a Stanley Cup champion who finished 4th overall and played one series in which they were a heavy underdog really a comparable for the 2010 Montreal Canadiens? If the Detroit Red Wings win the Stanley Cup this season would it be considered a monumental upset?

Comparison to 2010. FAIL.

Comparison 2 - Patrick Roy 1986

Once again, a miracle tale of an overmatched team that was an underdog and was outshot and outplayed. The Canadiens finished 7th overall in 1986. They were 3rd in the league in goal differential and had the 4th ranked defense in the NHL. Look at the roster of the 1986 Montreal Canadiens. They had 4 Hall of Famers and were stacked with rookies who were not regarded as well in 1986 as they are today. The core of this roster would post a 115 point season 3 seasons later.

Looking at their path to the 1986 Stanley Cup they faced ONE TEAM that finished ahead of them in the NHL Standings (Calgary Flames who had 89 points, 2 points ahead of the Canadiens). The Bruins (8), Whalers (11) and NY Rangers (14) all opened their respective series in the Montreal Forum. Were they outshot on a regular basis? The Canadiens were outshot 5 times in 20 games, where does this misconception arise from? Likely Game 3 against the NY Rangers when Roy's legend began. In that game the Rangers outshot the Habs 47-29 with an 11-3 advantage in OT alone. The fact is, in that game the Rangers season was on the line and the Canadiens victory put them up 3-0 in the series.

Comparison to 2010. FAIL.

Comparison 3 - Patrick Roy 1993

Another miracle run by the immortal Patrick Roy. As much as I love to hear this tale told on a yearly basis, I witnessed the run and the Canadiens entered one series as an underdog and were not overmatched in any of them. How does a team that finished the season with 102 points and finished 6th overall get labeled as a fluke? The roster at the time was somehow considered average, but had emerging players like John Leclair, Eric Desjardins and Mathieu Schneider to compliment players like Kirk Muller, Guy Carbonneau, Vincent Damphousse, Patrick Roy and Brian Bellows.

The only series in which the Canadiens entered as an underdog was their first round series against the Nordiques (5) who they trailed by 1 point. The rest of their run saw them face the Sabres (14), NY Islanders (13) and the LA Kings (11). During the 1993 Stanley Cup Finals they outshot the Kings in 3 of the 5 games and throughout the Finals  only trailed for 49 of  315 minutes. Yet similar to 1986 when the media had already awarded the Oilers the Cup, 1993 saw everybody assume the Penguins would win their third straight title and somehow this discredits the accomplishments of 1993. Patrick Roy was full credit for his Conn Smythe trophy because he was their best player, but it was no miracle title.

I have always found it interesting how the media portrayed the 1993 Toronto Maple Leafs effort as heroic and stoic and the Habs as a fluke and their success was hinged on having a great goaltender, not a great team. Sound familiar? In reality the Leafs had 3 points less than the Habs in 1993 and faced the exact same path to the Finals. The Leafs faced the Wings with 103 pts (Nordiques 104), St. Louis Blues 85 pts (Sabres 86) and the Kings with 88 pts (NY Islanders 87).

Comparison to 2010. FAIL.

There is one really obvious comparison that everybody seems to be ignoring. It doesn't register as high on the hyperbolic meter but offers up a much better comparison and it occured in more recent memory. My guess is that conjuring up images of Jose Theodore is not good for ratings and does not offer up as compelling a story as trying to thrust Halak into the immortals of the Canadiens crease. Placing Halak as the lone gunman also simplifies life for the scribe who called for Washington in 3. It allows for the pundit to essentially claim he was correct, but his genius was undermined by 1 player who did something extraordinary.

None of 1971, 1986 or 1993 offer up an 8 seed defeating a number 1. None of those seasons represent a severely overmatched team that scraped into the playoffs and had zero expectations in Montreal.

The storyline of the 2010 Montreal Canadiens was a team in transition who lost their best player for half the season and behind strong goaltending managed to squeak into the playoffs. In 2002 the Canadiens were a team in transistion who lost Saku Koivu early in the season and were able to squeak into the playoffs in the final week.

The 2002 Canadiens entered the playoffs as a heavy underdog against the number one seeded Boston Bruins. The 2002 Canadiens rode the goaltending of a 25 year old goaltender and finished with 87 points, the 2010 Canadiens rode the goaltending of a 24 year old goaltender and finished with 88 points

Look at the first round results. In the Canadiens victories in 2002 they were outshot on average by 36 - 20 for a -16 difference, in 2010 the margin was 45 - 26 for a difference of -19. Look at the second round series against the Carolina Hurricanes, once again the shot difference in their two victories was 40 -18.

Now another interesting thing is looking at the shot totals in their 2002 losses. Over the 2 rounds in their 6 losses the Canadiens were outshot 35 - 28 for a difference of -7. In 2010 that number is 33 - 30 for a difference of -3. Once again the numbers indicate that shots are not indicative of the final results.

With the results already at our fingertips it is obvious why this is not the picture that is being painted by the media. It does not inspire a fanbase to look forward to the inevitable doom of being outscored 19-3 over the final 7 periods, it is better to evoke the imagery of the miracle runs that weren't really miracles at all.

Comparison to 2010. PASS.

This is the fourth time in the past 12 seasons in which the Canadiens pulled off a monumental first round upset and every time has seen them dispatched fairly easily in the second round. In those three second round matchups, the Habs have managed to win only 2 games. The question for me then straddles the line of hope and rationality.

Unfortunately for me, the left side of my brain always seems to overpower the right side of my brain. I always look to history to lead the way. In order for me to believe that the Canadiens rope-a-dope can succeed for more than one round, I need to place their exploits into a historical context that can convince me of this possibility. Is there a an 8th seeded Stanley Cup run in which a team was consistently outshot, yet overcame this to win the Stanley Cup?

Example number one brought up the 1982 Vancouver Canucks, but they were destroyed in 4 straight in the Stanley Cup Finals. They were eliminated from consideration.

The 1991-92 Minnesota North Stars went on a miracle run where they knocked off the number one seeded Blackhawks, the number two seeded St. Louis Blues, the defending Stanley Cup champion Oilers before being blown out by the Pittsburgh Penguins 8-0 in Game 6. Eliminated.

The 1999 Buffalo Sabres were a candidate until I looked at their 2nd a 3rd round matchups in which they outshot their opposition. Eliminated.

The 2003 Anaheim Ducks went on a legendary run with JS Giguere, but even that run took place in the dead puck era where hooking, holding and obstruction were at their peak and did not involve Giguere seeing more than 29 shots per game. Eliminated.

The 2004 Flames run is a run that grabbed my attention, but it was a 6th seed facing a 3 seed and the point differential on the season was only 7 points between them and their first round opponent, the Vancouver Canucks. The first round series also didn't represent a disproportionate amount of shots fired at the Calgary goal in their 7 game victory. They actually completed the first round with a + 2 in shot differential. They too were eliminated.

All ultimately fell short of my desired goal.

My last ditch effort brought me to the 2006 Edmonton Oilers.

The Oilers were an 8 seed that knocked off the heavily favoured Detroit Red Wings. They overcame a 29 point differential and the second rated offense in the NHL. In the first round of the playoffs, the Oilers were outshot 40 - 26 for a differential of -14. In the second round of the playoffs against the Sharks through 2 games the Oilers trailed 2 games to nothing and had been outshot 68-41, a worse differential than the Canadiens 63-52 through 2 games against the Penguins.

From this point forward the Oilers outshot the Sharks 136 - 107. They then defeated the Ducks even though they were outshot in every game and then dominated the shot clock against the Canes in the Stanley Cup Final outshooting them 200 - 164. Now the Oilers eventually lost in Game 7, but they did lose Roloson in Game 1. Considering the drop off from Roloson's .927 SV% to Conklin/Markkanen's .900 SV% it is not a stretch to believe the Oilers could have won the Cup had he not missed 6 of the 7 games.

Since it is the only comparable that legitimately allows me to hold on to my Stanley Cup pipedream, I will allow my right brain to overpower the left for now.

Even though the rope-a-dope the Canadiens are using is an actual strategy, it is one frought with peril. Anybody who believes in Corsi numbers understands that this is likely a strategy that will ultimately fail. Passes that are just missing outreached sticks, rebounds that are being scooped up by defensemen and Mike Cammalleri maintaining a 26% shooting percentage are longshots at best, but until these things ultimately fail I maintain some semblance of hope.

It just doesn't revolve around disingenuous creative storytelling brought forth by the mainstream media to protect their own reputation and increase viewership and web hits.

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With Team Halak and Team Price continually foraging through their weapons locker for bright new artillery, a forgotten name from the Rejean Houle era has re-emerged. Canadiens fans fearful of the new regime making the wrong decision between the pipes have begun to bring up the name of Tomas Vokoun.

What if Carey Price is Jose Theodore and Jaroslav Halak is Tomas Vokoun? What if they make the same mistake they made over a decade ago and let the better goaltender walk? Think of the parallels. Jose Theodore has the same World Junior pedigree of Carey Price. Tomas Vokoun is an unheralded goaltender born in Czechoslovakia, so is Jaroslav Halak. We have an uninspired simplistic connection folks.

The current situation is in no way comparable to what occurred during the summer of 1998. The parallel requires revisionist history to correlate to the current saga playing out in the blue paint. The biggest factor that is continually ignored in this revised history lesson is the presence of Jocelyn Thibault. Without Thibault, the whole scenario unfolds dramatically different.

During the summer of 1998, the Canadiens were a team who almost pulled of a surprise Conference Final appearance. After knocking out the heavily favoured Penguins in the first round, the Canadiens outshot the Sabres  146-94, yet were swept by the Sabres and Dominik Hasek. The Canadiens were beginning to lose patience with Jocelyn Thibault and for the second straight season had turned to Jose Theodore to finish out the season.

With the Nashville Predators taking part in an expansion draft in June, the Canadiens were about to be forced into a decision on their future in goal. Under the NHL's Expansion agreements, the Canadiens were subject to the following rules.

The Predators were to select 26 players, one from each of the 26 existing franchises at the time of the draft.

First- and second-year pros were exempt from being selected in the draft. Each of the 26 franchises in the league were allowed to protect either one goaltender, five defensemen and nine forwards or two goaltenders, three defensemen and seven forwards.

Of the unprotected players, each franchise had to include at least one forward and one defenseman who appeared in 40 games in the 1997–98 season. Each franchise also had to include at least one goaltender who appeared in 10 games in the 1997–98 season, and a minimum of 25 games since the 1995–96 season. These minimums for goaltenders were put into place in order to avoid manipulation of rosters, such as what occurred before the 1992 NHL Expansion Draft, which weakened the talent pool available in the draft.

With the Expansion Draft taking place a week before July 1st, the Canadiens were allowed to float UFA Andy Moog as their eligible goaltender who met the 10/25 game criteria set forth in the expansion rules and assure the organization against the loss of the jewel of the Roy trade, Jocelyn Thibault. With neither Theodore or Vokoun eligible for exemption in their third full pro season, Rejean Houle was now forced to make a decision on which two goaltenders to protect.

I have nothing but contempt for the job that Houle did during his Montreal tenure, but is it realistic to criticize the decision he ultimately made? Twelve years in the future the answer became crystal clear, as will the answer to the Price/Halak question in 2022. Re-writing the past to suit an individual agenda or stoke fears is disingenuous. (note: Houle sent Sebastien Bordeleau to Nashville after the Predators agreed not to select Peter Popovic. I do not want to speculate, but if he could have cut the same deal to keep Vokoun and he let him go to keep Popovic...then in the words of Benoit Brunet....ei yi yi) 

You can only make decisions based on the information you have at the time. In the summer of 1998 the Canadiens had the following information at their disposal.

Jocelyn Thibault - Former 1st round pick (10th overall). The main piece in the Patrick Roy trade. Thibault made the leap directly from the QMJHL to the NHL and registered two top 10 statistical seasons by the age of 23. Of the three young goaltenders, Thibault had better NHL numbers than either had in the AHL. He also had 13 games of NHL playoff experience.

Jose Theodore - Former 2nd round pick (44th overall). Jose Theodore had a decorated junior career leading his team to a QMJHL title, earning the QMJHL playoff MVP as well as being named a two-time QMJHL All-Star. Theodore lead the Canadian team to a World Junior title with a 4-0 record, a 1.50 GAA, a tournament All-Star nod as well as being named top goaltender in the tournament. Theodore had been underwhelming in his 17 regular season starts, but had been outstanding in his 5 playoff games, registering a 1-2 record with a 1.66 GAA and a .944 SV%. During his first three professional seasons, Theodore bettered Vokoun's numbers with the Fredericton Canadiens in almost every category in essentially the same amount of starts.

Tomas Vokoun - Former 9th round pick (226th overall). Vokoun's North American path took him through Wheeling in the ECHL and although his numbers are less than spectacular on a strong Wheeling team, he played well enough to earn himself a promotion to the AHL. In the AHL, Vokoun and Theodore split starts over two seasons with Theodore eventually wresting the starting job away. Vokoun earned a short call-up, which lasted 20 minutes and resulted in 4 goals against.

Vokoun was battling the language factor in which his main competition were homegrown superstars while struggling with personal language and cultural disadvantages. He also had to deal with Houle's reluctance to dump the player he received in his most controversial trade, the well known QMJHL resumes of both goaltenders, the Golden Canadian resume of Theodore and the subpar results through the first 3 years of his career.

Based on the information gathered to that point, was there any other decision to be made? The best analogy I have heard in regards to Vokoun/Theodore comes from Habsworld veteran Bulis the Habbie.

The GM that made the call cannot be blamed with hindsight. Think of a poker hand: you have pocket aces and somebody goes all in before the flop. You call. Whether you win or lose the hand, you're not to blame - you made the best decision given the information you had at the time.

An overlooked factor in this whole story is the fact that the summer of 1998 was also the middle of the Quebec goaltender boom.  With Roy and Allaire revolutionizing goaltending with their technical attack on the position, a whole generation of goaltenders were miles ahead of the worlds learning curve. Think of Roy/Allaire's goalie schools as an epicenter of an earthquake in Montreal. The first to gain this edge were the closest to the center of the quake. A generation of kids born in Quebec in the late 70s were being taught a revolutionary way to play the game and plenty were being rewarded with high draft positions based on technique and not ability. Jocelyn Thibault, Eric Fichaud, Dan Cloutier, Jose Theodore, Jean-Sebastion Giguere, Martin Biron, Marc Denis, Stephane Fiset, Mathieu Garon, Francis Larivee, Jean-Francois Damphousse etc etc all high draft choices. While these kids were learning butterfly pushes and learning how to maximize net coverage and remain compact in their movements to cover transition holes, the rest of the world was still playing an antiquated style frought with technical flaws.

Somebody like Vokoun was likely behind the technical development of both Thibault and Theodore in 1998. When he adjusted to North American life and the language and his technique began to catch up to his athleticism, he began to narrow the gap eventually passing both goaltenders. Unfortunately for the Canadiens when this happened he was in Nashville.

Add in all these variables and the impossibility of predicting the future, how can you possibly fault Foule for this decision? You can't. Although there remains some similarities between today and 1998, the added variables of the expansion draft and the Quebec goaltending advantage created a much different scenario. Twelve years ago the Canadiens hand was forced, they did not have the option of patience.

With Halak raising the level of his game over the last 10 weeks, the Canadiens would be wise to let this drama play out regardless of the media or fans desires. As much as the hyperbolic nature of the Canadiens fanbase wants to declare Halak a genuine number one, he has not proven that yet (and no, the Olympics did not prove anything. Look into his numbers as the games became more important. Against Norway, Sweden, Canada and Finland Halak had a horrendous SV%). History is fraught with goaltenders who ascended to the starters role and were exposed in their second trip around the league. For Price, history is also littered with goaltenders that have been rushed and had their confidence destroyed. Both goaltenders continue to tease their potential, neither has taken a firm grip on the torch

The obvious route to take would be to absorb more information before making a rash decision. The Canadiens are not 1-2 players away from a Cup run, so outside of a deal that lands an impact player in return for either goaltender, why deal either of them? The fear that Halak will leave for the KHL is meaningless. If he does, the Canadiens maintain his rights. Like Sergei Kostitsyn, they need to let the players know who is in charge. Forced decisions usually lead to bad decisions (ie. Foule).

Let's see if Halak can maintain this performance through next season and truly earn the title of number one goaltender. Let's see if Price begins to rid his game of the inconsistencies that have plagued the last two months and recapture the form of the 2008 calendar year (coincidently the year when the media dubbed Price the unquestioned number one). This decision could dramatically alter the future of the Canadiens for the next 10 years. It needs to be handled with the utmost care.

The picture will become clearer over the next 12 months. With the NHL determined to curb equipment size to the proportion of the goaltender, how much will this affect the 5'11" Halak? Will it help the 6'3" Price? This is an important question. If Price cannot rebound to his 2008 form and prove to the Canadiens over 2 and a half seasons that he has the work ethic and mentality to lead this franchise, then their conscience can be clear if they feel that Halak is the guy to go to. If Price rebounds and Halak regresses, then you once again have done your due diligence and can act accordingly. If 150-200 games is not enough for Gauthier and Timmins to make the proper assessment, I can send them a nice Centennial Canadiens silver dollar that they can use to make the decision for them.

As much as fans want a definitive answer right now, the Vokoun scenario shows exactly why this is a marathon and not a sprint. History shows that goaltenders ebb and flow and to make the assumption that Halak will be the greater  goaltender based on 60-80 games is dangerous. I am sure the consensus after 2002 was that Foule made the right choice in keeping the Vezina/Hart winner Jose Theodore. Placing your hat on Price's potential alone could leave you with Jeff Hackett and Dave Manson in three seasons. 

In order to avoid the Vokoun scenario, the Canadiens should roll out the best young tandem in the league for at least one more season before making any dramatic decisions, anything else is way too risky.

While watching the movie "The International", I came across the following quote by the New York DA, trying to explain the layers of bullshit that make the truth almost impossible to uncover.

"There's what people want to hear, there's what people want to believe, there's everything else, THEN there's the truth!

When I heard the quote, I couldn't help but think of the nonsense surrounding the ongoing Price / Halak debate. It was onsense that boiled to the surface once again on the strength of 243 great minutes by Jaroslav Halak in mid- December. This debate continues to be driven by individual ego, bias and agenda and based very little on substance. 

It is very easy to understand how it happens. An individual makes a declaration that Price is better at a pub or on a message board and watches intently hoping to have their opinion proven right in order to trot out their prediction to prove their wealth of knowledge (EGO). Said individual now watches each game looking for flaws in Halak's game to justify their statement (BIAS) then pushes forth those flaws in order to make his or her point (AGENDA). At this point the opinion has become skewed and the quest for the truth has dissipated. He or she ignores what they do not want to hear or believe and search out  those with an agreeable perspective.

The result? Sides are formed and you have Team Price and Team Halak.

Ego, agenda and bias constantly lead to intelligent individuals making nonsensical statements. When Team Price brings up lack of goal support, Team Halak's response is "the team plays tighter in front of Price and does not take chances because they are worried he will let in a bad goal". Team Price's counter argument? "The Canadiens play a looser game in front of Halak because they know they will need 3-4 goals to win the game". Neither of these statements is based in reality and are the rationales seem to have been created in order to push forth and back up individual agendas.

Everybody has a personal preference that skews their perspective, but it is a shame that the internet has devolved into a giant pissing match of "I told you, I was right, therefore I win and hence you are dumb" arguments. At the end of the day does it really matter if you are right? Does anybody keep score? The loudest opinion is not the most insightful and succinct. All that matters to me is that I provoke thought and provide you a window into my mind to see what I am thinking. It is then up to you to figure out whether you want to continue to peer through that window or not.

Bill Simmons is diametrically opposed to almost every pro sports team I support. He is a Bruins (Habs), Red Sox (Yankees), Celtics (Raptors) and Patriots (Jets) fan. I read him because I appreciate his perspective and look past his admitted bias. In his 700 page "Book of Basketball" his thesis revolved around "the secret", a secret he discovered while watching the 1986 Boston Celtics perform. The team was an integral element in the foundation of his love of the game. Should I then be surprised that he spent the first 650 pages praising the "the secret" of the 1986 Celtics and the players who embraced this secret, then finally come to the conclusion that the greatest team of all-time was the 1986 Celtics? Of course not, but he sure made a damn good case and I admired his opinion because he poured over every book written about the legends of the game, watched endless video and did not rely solely on statistics to come up with his opinions alone. At the end of the day, I read 700 pages and didn't care whether he was right or wrong, he succeeded in moving the gears of my mind.

When individuals try to discredit my perspective as having a Price bias, ultimately they are correct. Like Simmons and the Celtics, I got my goaltending Ph. D watching Patrick Roy. I watched him take a position that was being played in a nonsensical manner and improve it to unparalleled levels. From his evolution of using equipment not only to protect himself, but stop the puck, to his work in exploiting percentages to his advantage, Roy began the lineage that lead to today's goaltender. Because of this, my idea of the ultimate goaltender resembles Carey Price more than Jaroslav Halak. Does that cripple my credibility? That is up to you to decide. I am not skewing numbers, nor am I basing my opinion on numbers alone. The point of these articles is to provide the reader with nuggets of information hidden beneath the surface for the reader to either buy into what I'm selling, or pass on it. It is of little significance to me whether or not you come to the same conclusion as I.

I cannot provide you with the truth because I cannot break through your personal bias, agenda or ego. Your truth is always going to remain what you want to hear and believe. It will exist in your influences and your preferences. These articles are the truth that I believe, ultimately it is up to you to peer through the window or pass it by.

All told, these balanced and fair number comparisons and scenarios make their own case.

Price / Halak December 2009

December was an interesting month in this ongoing debate. Just when everybody thought Price had solidified the starting job in November, Halak rebounded and added fuel to the fire with a dominant December showing.

During a 243 minute span, Halak faced 186 shots while surrendering only 6 goals for an obscene .967 SV%. WIth one of the best young goaltending tandems in the NHL, a large number of Canadiens fans however, chose not to appreciate their contribution in saving a lost season, but rather chose to simplify the teams struggles in their eyes by turning their frustration towards the last line of defense.

With the images of Halak's dominant stretch fresh in everyone's mind, it seemed as though he had finally distanced himself from Price. As Price struggled while allowing a couple of brutal softies that cost the Canadiens a pair of games, the perception began to emerge that Halak had outplayed Price in the month of December.

However, a look at their stats over those 17 games does not back up that perception.

On the whole, the overall mental imagery of Halak's strong performances bypasses the 3 games in which he gave up 14 goals on 100 shots.

Not contrarily, the visual impact of Price reaching over his head and deflecting two pucks into his own net is too powerful to offset the memory of the 4 games in which he gave up only 5 goals.

The biggest difference maker in the perception of the month, was that Halak's four great games took place in succession. Watching Halak's sustained greatness over that streak tends to work as a sort of blinder for some other individual game performances for the rest of his month The strong streak also masks the fact that in four of his five December starts, Halak registered mediocre save percentages of .838, .852, .889 and .889.

Price's month was full of bad goals (5 by my count), three of which were crucial mistakes in losses against Pittsburgh, New Jersey and Minnesota. These mistakes overshadowed five strong but unconsecutive starts with save percentages of .971, .926, .927, .933 and .974.

Taken all togeher, these easily overlooked factors lead to their save percentages being essentially one goal apart.

Looking strictly at their win totals can also lead to incomplete conclusions. Last month I introduced Win Threshold in order to emphasize that wins are essentially a byproduct of goal support and that they are in fact a team-based statistic.

Halak produced 4 of his 6 wins against Toronto, Carolina, Florida and the New York Islanders (who own a combined 51-70-29 won / loss record) with his most impressive win coming against the Atlanta Thrashers. During the month, the winning percentage of the teams he faced was a combined .520. Price faced only one team below the .500 level, the Maple Leafs. Seven of his eight opponents were at .500 or better. Halak's win threshold during December was .914 as the Canadiens provided him with 31 goals in his 9 starts. Price's win threshold in December was .930 as the offense produced 17 goals in 8 starts.

Halak enjoyed plenty of goal support in December. A goals against average of 3.18 and a save percentage of .914 would have produced a .500 record. His play was exemplary against the Senators, Islanders, Thrashers and Hurricanes, but in those 4 games he had 16 goals in support. As Robert pointed out, the return of Markov helped to rejuvenate the powerplay and Halak was a definite beneficiary.

Price's December was a stark contrast to Halak. In order to salvage a .500 record, Price would have had to produce league-leading numbers, as his goal support was almost non-existent. Shockingly, he almost did. The Canadiens produced only 17 goals in 8 games and 5 times registered less than 2 goals

Through all this research, I have begun to ignore a goaltender's won / loss record when I assess a goaltenders play. Halak's record during his career in games in which the Canadiens scored 2 goals or less is 3-23. His record in which they register 3 goals or more is 38-2-2. Looking at current stars Ryan Miller, Roberto Luongo and Martin Brodeur (the league leader with 27 wins) further illustrates this point.

Ryan Miller's record in games where the Sabres register 2 goals or less in 2010? 4-10.
Roberto Luongo's record in games where the Canucks register 2 goals or less in 2010? 2-10
Martin Broduer's record in games where the Devils register 2 goals or less in 2010? 5-9-1

After viewing the threshold and goal support numbers, it becomes pretty clear that wins are a team based statistic and should not be used to solidify any argument in regards to the effectiveness or value of a goaltender.

Looking at Halak's December opponents, I wondered if his statistics had been influenced by the strength of his schedule? Have his statistics been earned under the same conditions as Price?

Over the last 3+ seasons, Halak has faced 25 teams with sub .500 records in his 70 career starts. Parity reigns supreme in the new NHL as only 5 of 30 teams finished below .500 In the last 2 seasons. Halak has faced a sub .500 team four of every 10 starts when less than 20% of the league has a losing record. Contrast that to Price who has faced 21 teams below .500 in 116 starts.

(Note: all records referenced were through January 4th, 2009, by the time this is posted borderline teams like the Isles, Panthers and Lightning might move above or below the .500 level altering the figures slightly, but when Halak faced them, they were on the south side of .500).  

The results paint a striking portrait. Halak has certainly benefited from an easier workload. It is shocking to see how dominant Halak has been against the bottom 5 in the league and how mediocre Price has been. Is this a function of poor focus on Price's part? Should this be viewed as a negative against Price? Or do you assess that it is better to excel against the teams that you will face more often? Personally, I want the goaltender that produces against the majority of the league because only 16% of the league is below .500. This is a telling statistic in terms of assessing the future and the reason that the emotion and euphoria of Halak's 243 minutes cannot be overstated in regards to his overall body of work.

You do not trade the 5th overall pick who has compiled a resume at age 22 that only 3-4 players in modern history can equal at the same age, especially when the bulk of your secondary option's success has occurred against the bottom five teams in the league. Unfortunately, Halak has placed a gun to Gainey's head in regards to a decision, He can no longer wait to see who is better. He has to base his decision on their whole body of work and choose. So that means their junior careers (Price), their AHL careers (Price) and their NHL careers (statistically even) are the basis for his judgement. Add in that he has groomed Price and laid the brickwork of his foundation and Gainey would not be doing his due diligence if he chose Halak over Price. It would be a pure gamble based on guesswork and hope. 

Gainey is perhaps counting on one of his peers overstating a month or two of work and overpaying for Halak's services. At this point, his overall body of work does not warrant a top six forward, but the combination of his potential and his recent play might shake one loose. Halak has played great, but I also don't think it is a coincidence that since Gainey went to the media about the shopping Halak on Dec 10th that Halak has started 5 of his 8 games against teams below .500 while Price has faced zero in his seven starts.

Halak's numbers since November 1st have been fantastic. The biggest difference that I have noticed between Halak and Price over the last two months is the gaps between spectacular and concentration lapses. They are less pronounced with Halak. Outside of his rebound control, his play has been remarkably efficient. His positioning has been strong and remains one of the reasons that his saves seem less spectacular. His focus has allowed him to remain efficient and as an undersized goaltender this is critical. The video below shows Halak at his best.

It is as though he has a rope attached from his pants to the center bar of the net allowing him to square up the shooter at all times.

The result?

Pucks acting like magnets to the CH logo on his chest.

In almost every instance he has maintained the proper depth in his crease and his gap control on breakaways has removed the option of the deke, forcing the shooters into low percentage shots that he easily contains. Approaching 25, he is beginning to figure out the pace and tendencies of the league and mature as an NHL goaltender, there is no doubt that he has become a number one NHL goaltender, the question is can he become a dominant franchise changing goaltender?

Price's numbers represent to me why statistical analysis alone is unreliable. I have watched every game, viewed every goal and charted shot position and watched him play great hockey in October and produce terrible stats. In October he simplified his game and returned to the economical beast he was when he entered the league. He used his size to his advantage, moved away from strictly butterfly towards a hybrid style that allowed him to remain non-committal (allowing him to wait out the shooter), he avoided concentration lapses and with that allowed less poor goals.

In November he took his game to the next level with sprinkles of athleticism to his game while maintaining an economy of movement. Price looked like he had many figured things out. Then the concentration lapses began to creep back into his play. With these lapses came bad / questionable goals in December (8 of the18 by my count) and although he provided plenty of highlight reel saves, to me these represented a slight regression as he was relying on instinct and athleticism to bail himself out.

If you watch the highlight reel below, almost all of his spectacular saves are born of questionable positioning. Over pursuing the play and scrambling back, average gap control on breakaways that force him to rely on his length and quickness to make the save. The positive being that he has the ability to make these remarkable recoveries. The negative aspect being some of them are unnecessary. His stats present somewhat of a paradox, they suggest a goaltender that is getting better every game even though his consistency and positioning have regressed. This is the tease of his youth, watching all the tools flash their brilliance individually, coming tantalizingly close to coalescing into the dominant goaltender we all expect, then back to the tantalizing flashes.

GOALS AGAINST

This is the one area where Halak blows away Price in December. Strength of opposition and goal support have no bearing on the softies that Price has allowed. They were concentration lapses of the highest degree, long shots that he misjudged and point shots that he failed to track properly, plays that he should complete regardless of the situation. It also cannot go without mention that the perception continues to be reality in regards to his weakness high glove side, half of the poor goals he allowed were high glove side and two were back breakers.

Most of Halak's transgressions were from failure to control his rebounds or born of Huet disease (drop in the butterfly, don't battle to track the puck and assume you have your percentages covered and the puck will hit you). All goals that can be argued as faultless, but goals that most likely were reassessed in the following day's practice.

Bad or suspect goals indicated in bold.

1. Long shot, big rebound cashed in by Clarke MacArthur as he beats Halak high stick side. 15 ft.
2. Backhand, Halak struggles with rebound, Jason Pominville beats Halak low stick side. 10 ft.
3. Pominville out of the corner, cross crease for Roy who taps it in beating Halak low stick side. 13 ft.
4. Vanek shot, Halak struggles with the rebound as Tim Kennedy beats him high glove side. 9 ft.
5. Slapshot from the blueline seems to beat a screened Halak low stick side. 56 ft.
6. 2 on 1. Thomas Vanek feeds Mike Grier for a cross crease tap-in that beats Halak low glove side. 8 ft.
7. Michalek shot from the slot picked up by Mike Fisher as he lifts it over Halak high stick side. 6 ft.
8. Andrej Sekera slap shot from the point beats Halak low stick side. 58 ft.
9. 2 on 1, shorthanded. Tim Connolly sends Patrick Kaleta in alone as he beats Halak 5-hole. 6 ft.
10. Scramble in front as Tim Kennedy finds the puck and beats Halak low stick side. 11 ft.
11. 5 on 3 PP. Drew Stafford cross crease for MacArthur for a  tap-in beating Halak low glove side. 5 ft.
12. Ron Hainsey shot from a bad angle deflects in off Ilya Kovalchuk beating Halak low glove side. 3 ft.
13. Point shot by Kubina handcuffs Halak and Nik Antropov slides the puck into an empty net. 6 ft.
14. 5 on 4 PP. Point shot stopped , rebound slid home by Antropov beating Halak low stick side. 7 ft.
15. 5 on 4 PP. Point shot stopped, Brandon Sutter on the rebound beats Halak low glove side. 10 ft.
16. Ian White point shot knuckles by Halak beating him low stick side. 59 ft.
17. Scramble, Jason Blake makes an attempt as the puck hits him and beats Halak low glove side. 5 ft.
18. Chris Campoli point shot stopped, rebound to Peter Regin beats him high glove side. 18 ft.
19. 5 on 4 PP. Point shot by Ryan Shannon that beats Halak high glove side. Possible screen. 55 ft.
20. Fisher out of the corner, stopped, rebound batted in by Chris Neil, beating Halak over his head. 4 ft.
21. Keith Ballard end to end gets in alone on Halak and beats him high stick side. Odorous. 8 ft.
22. Nathan Horton clear cut breakaway beats Halak high stick side. 6 ft.
23. 3 on 2. Horton feeds Michael Frolik in the slot as he beats Halak low glove side. 15 ft.
24. Radek Dvorak beats Halak high stick side through a screen from a poor angle. 10 ft.

 

Bad or suspect goals indicated in bold.

1. Price makes initial save, Colton Orr hops on the rebound and beats Price low stick side. 7 ft.
2. Jeff Finger slapshot from the point beats Price low stick side. Very odorous. 45 ft.
3. Matt Stajan on a breakaway beats Price high glove side. 23 ft.
4. Matt Hunwick point shot deflected in the slot by Vladimir Sobotka beating Price high stick side. 24 ft.
5. Daniel Briere fights off a check and chips the puck over Price, beating him high glove side. 16 ft.
6. Bill Guerin from the corner finds a pinching Gonchar who beats a transitioning Price 5-hole. 13 ft.
7. Sergei Gonchar shot from the point tipped in by Matt Cooke beating Price high stick side. 7 ft.
8. Pascal Dupuis slapshot deflected, misplayed by Price beating him high glove side. 38 ft.
9. Wrist shot from the point by Christoph Schubert beats Price cleanly high glove side. 56 ft.
10. Scramble as Colby Armstrong slides the puck into an empty net beating a scrambling Price. 18 ft.
11. Nik Antropov from the bottom of the circle beats Price high stick side through a screen. 12 ft.
12. 4 on 3 PP. Ilya Kovalchuk off the wing beats Price from the face-off dot high glove side. 27 ft.
13. Iikka Pikkarainen shot handcuffs Price and the puck bounces off the post, his pad and in. 38 ft.
14. Patrik Elias sneaks in behind the D and puts home his own rebound beating Price low glove side. 9 ft.
15. Robbie Earl off the wing beats Price 5-hole. Odorous. 21 ft.
16. 5 on 4 PP. Corner feed from Martin Havlat to Mikko Koivu deflected beats Price low stick side. 12 ft.
17. Shot wide, Price slow to get across the crease as Cal Clutterbuck beats him low glove side. 5 ft.
18. Kurtis Foster slapshot from the point beats Price high glove side. 57 ft.

 

Halak has been fantastic on mid range shots, allowing only two goals all season between 21'-39'. HIs save percentage in each zone has also risen from an early season low of .712 to his current mark of .842. The Canadiens improved penalty kill continues to benefit both goalies as Halak carried an obscene .962 SV% while shorthanded in December, when added to his elite level .935 even strength percentage the results lead to a monster month in which he was honoured with the Molson Cup and the NHL 1st star of the week during the last week of December. I can picture Bob Gainey sitting at his desk, feet up, hands clasped, smoking a stogie as he places Paul Holmgren on hold.

Bombardment would be the proper verb to describe what Halak faced in December. WIth the Canadiens consistently surrendering 40+ shots per game, Halak was relied upon to remain flawless in order to keep the Canadiens season alive. When adding in attempts at the goal (missed shots + blocks), Halak's nightly menu consisted of over a shot attempt per minute (67). It is not a recipe for long term success and when coupled with the stronger teams on the schedule and little goal support, it lead to unsatisfactory results. The shot quality is decreasing as the season progresses, and with Halak's superb work beyond 20 feet, if the Canadiens can continue to improve and limit shots to the perimeter, both goaltenders will continue to provide big numbers.

While Price's numbers continue to improve seemingly across the board, two numbers are concerning. His even strength save percentage continues to drop from the elite levels he produced in October, it is the only statistic that is consistent with my perceived drop in his level of play. His overall numbers were masked early by an inept penalty kill and his decline is now being masked by the dominance of the same unit. Price was also unbeatable early in the season from beyond 40 feet, but that number is also beginning to slip. Am I greatly concerned with these trends? Not really, it comes with the gamble of rolling the dice with a young goaltender and judging by his history we are in for another peak and decline over the next 3 months.

After hanging Price out to dry over the first 2 months, the Canadiens have begun to show signs of limiting scoring opportunities. His shot attempts have finally dipped below a shot per minute and he was rarely hung out to dry like he routinely was during the first two months of the season. Let's just call it the Andrei Markov factor. When Jacques Martin makes the required tweaks to his "give up 40 shots per night and rely on the goaltender" system, the Canadiens should be in good position for a strong second half surge.

The December verdict: I will preface this by mentioning that this whole discussion should be a non-starter, both goalies have been a godsend in 2010 and the Canadiens would be in the Taylor Hall sweepstakes without them, but the controversies never seems to go away. I made mention of Larocque / Dryden and Hayward / Roy in my pre-season article, but their is really no excuse for this debate in today's environment. 20-30 years ago the casual fan did not have access to player game logs, shot logs, previous years standings, strength of opposition, the SI vault or highlights at your fingertips to develop an educated opinion. Their opinion was based on what they saw with their own eyes, what the weekly Hockey News statistics told them and the hyperbole they were spoon fed by local media. That was and remains understandable, but watching what the fanbase is doing to these kids is not. This whole debate is raging over individual egos and has nothing to do with what is happening on the ice or in the locker room. Mentioning either of their names in blame for a loss is uninspired, unimaginative and just plain lazy. 

The simple answer to the question is that both goaltenders have been great in 2009-10. I deemed them equal in October, Price ran with the ball in November and Halak outplayed Price in December. A boxing scorecard would read 10-10, 10-9, 9-10 for a three round score of 29-29. When factoring in win threshold/goal support, quality of competition and future potential, my opinion from October remains unchanged. Neither goaltender is significantly outplaying the other and the things I see from Price foretell a higher ceiling. 

Little did I know that when I prefaced the season by asking god to bless the irrational nature of Hab fans that they would in turn provide me with an excuse to blather on for 4000+ words about a goaltending controversy based entirely on hyperbole.

So in honour of unearned obscene hit counts, God Bless us all.....again!

What a difference a month makes.

Thirty days ago the Canadiens were in the middle of a goaltending controversy. Jaroslav Halak's agent was NITWITTERING Carey Price's won/loss record, the fanbase had placed the bus in reverse and were attempting to leave a fresh set of treadmarks on Price's back and the Canadiens were plodding through their schedule at .500.

Outside of the Canadiens still flirting with the .500 mark, the attitude regarding the goaltending situation has changed dramatically. Since this article is a retrospective on November, it is heavily weighted towards Price. Halak's one start didn't offer enough of a sample to legitimately track his monthly progress. What began as an even split in October, turned into a clear separation as Price started 11 of 12 games in November, almost rendering the title of this article, and its point, moot for at least the time being. A solid performance by Halak in Ottawa suggest that the busy month of December may tell a different story.

Surprised by the turn this has taken, maybe you shouldn't be. This has been typical of the story that Price has written over the first two and a half seasons of his career. Somehow, instead of the fanbase observing the roller coaster ride from afar, recognizing that as the roller coaster descends, a peak exists for it to climb, they jump on the roller coaster eyes closed screaming for dear life on its mad descents only to extol the virtues of the ride when they disembark.

Should Price struggle in February again, it is likely that the fresh imagery that exists in everybody's minds right now will once again dissipate in a mad panic

Panic in Montreal is generally followed by the rewriting OR ignoring of history. Even with Price's strong November this controversy is not over, it will continue to bubble just below the surface. Should Price struggle in January, the detractors who are silent right now will re-emerge with the same arguments, their memories will once again be wiped clean. While the starting goaltender in Montreal is one of the most heavily scrutinized positions in sports, the easiest may be the backup goaltender in Montreal. The backup's flaws are always concealed under the their baseball caps, their past transgressions completely ignored. This will never change.

At Eyes On The Prize, we continue try to look past the surface level blame and analyze what is really going on. This month we will compare Price's performance in November to October and also look back and try to clarify the factors that contribute to a team based stat like a win / loss record and how it relates to Price and Halak.

One of the main arguments against Price in October was his inability to win games. With Halak sporting a 5-2 record and Price at 2-5, the most simplistic argument was "Price doesn't make the big saves when he needs to" and "Halak wins games". That argument ignored plenty of factors, most importantly that wins are a team based stat.

While perusing the internet I came across an interesting perspective at Brodeur is a Fraud. While trying to debunk the myth of Brodeur's career, he came up with an interesting statistic that he refers to as Win Threshold. It essentially projects out what a goaltender would have had to do to earn a point (.500) by including the teams performance in front of him. In a 3-1 victory, the assumption would be that to earn a point the goaltender would have to allow no more than 3 goals. Inversely, in a 3-1 loss the goaltender would need to have allowed no more than 1 goal.

We can calculate what I'll call the "win threshold" for the goalies on each team by taking (shots against - goals for) / shots against. This gives us the save percentage that would result in the team ending up with an equal number of goals for and goals against over the course of the season. If the goalie's save percentage is above that number, the team is likely to win more than the lose, while anything below the threshold means that the team should end up sub -.500 (or sub -.550 in the shootout era).

This simple statistic beautifully illustrates the career of Chris Osgood AND his playoff run that allowed the media to begin the "Chris Osgood is a Hall of Famer" nonsense.

In 2008-09, Detroit's win threshold was .873, which was the lowest in the league. The Islanders' win threshold was .928, which was not only the highest mark in the league but also the highest of any team since the lockout......Naturally, comparing win totals on goalies playing on the Islanders to goalies playing on the Red Wings is completely senseless.

Using this as a starting point, I compared how this statistic affected goalies on the same team. Was the Canadiens offense responsible for Halak's inflated win total, or was it his superior goaltending? What would Price have had to do to compensate for the woeful offense in front of him? Was it that Halak was receiving an easier ride?

(Let me preface this by stating that this is judging wins and wins alone. If a goaltender was fantastic and had a .960 SV%, but only needed to produce a .895 SV%, it is not devaluing his performance, only stating that his margin for error was very high. I also understand that early saves can keep a team in a period. Teams play to the score and loosen up when they are up big and that some goals are scored late in a game and alter the margin for the threshold. It is obvious that providing replacement value will never replicate the actual performance that history has provided. This theory is being used only to illustrate that wins are a team statistic and that they are heavily influenced by not only what you save, but what offense your team provides).

To put this in perspective, the league average in save percentage is .910.

In order for Price to gain the majority of his wins, he has had to offer above average goaltending.
His margin for error was slim and when he failed to balance on the high wire, he was open to criticism.
A .915 save percentage is currently good to place 20th in the league.

Halak on the other hand was allowed to navigate with a greater margin of error. He only needed to offer a save percentage of .865 to register his 5 victories. Vesa Toskala's save percentage on the season is .863. So any goaltender slightly more competent than Toskala MAY have registered a similar number of victories as Halak.

Both goaltenders would have had to provide Hall of Fame type performances to avoid the majority of their losses.

How would those statistics translate if you offered up average replacement value? If Jimmy Howard and his .910 SV% replaced Price and Halak, the Canadiens would be in deep trouble. The Canadiens would likely be in the hunt for Taylor Hall, not talking about the importance of their December schedule.

Looking at Price's losses below, it is unlikely that an average goaltender makes any impact on his losses, hell, it's unlikely that Roberto Luongo would have made much of a difference. 

Price's threshold in his 11 losses is a SV% of 0.944 and a GAA of 1.69. Numbers that would place him above Ryan Miller as the number one goaltender in the league. Six of those starts would have required a .940+ SV% just to procure a shootout. If the team continues to struggle offensively to this capacity, then it is going to require Jose Theodore 2002 MVP type performances to drag them into the playoffs. With Price and Halak entering their RFA season, THAT is a scary and expensive thought.

You would think with Halak's lack of activity in November, that his stat line would remain unchanged, but with only an 8 game sample, one strong start against the Flames resulted in an 11 point improvement on his save percentage and lopping 1/5th of a goal off his goals against average. In October, Price statistically lagged behind in all the major categories, but with a strong month has lessened the paper gap between himself and Halak. I made the argument in October that Price had a higher ceiling, but was prone to wild swings of inconsistency and the 2009 season has proven that out so far.

Through two months, what has been proven, is that the Canadiens goaltending is in good hands. With the transition of turning over half the team, and the numerous injuries to key personnel, the fact the team came through November at .500 is miraculous. At this moment, Halak's consistency offers the perfect compliment to Price, but due to the idiotic actions of his agent (Halak, Halak it a lot?), it is clear that Halak is eyeing a starting assignment, and will not likely find that in Montreal. You may be reading "Price / Sanford: the numbers" by March December. (note: as I am writing this, Sportsnet has reported that Halak has been placed on the trading block).

The fact that I can even mention a 2002 Theodore-like season is based on the strong November showing by Price. Playing behind an injury ravaged defense that produced roughly the same amount of shots as the previous month, from roughly the same areas, Price's numbers improved across the board. Price also managed to avoid a major meltdown like the Vancouver game, as well as producing a couple of 40+ shot gems against the Bruins and Predators.

With Halak pushing Price for the starting job in October, by all accounts Price responded to the challenge with hard work, which resulted in plenty of positive signs over the last month. With hard work Price's confidence level soared and his return to a hybrid style has allowed his athleticism to re-surface, because of this, Price managed to produce some miraculous saves during November. His patience has also been on display, particularly in shootouts and breakaways where once again he is using his huge frame to his advantage and refusing to commit before the shooter. With his gap control improving, he has been extremely hard to beat in 1 on 1 situations. This is a huge improvement on the tentative approach he used in late 2008-09. Add in his aggressive puck handling and his tenacity in battling to track the puck and the hope in Montreal is that Price has begun turning the corner.

Price's save percentage's also improved in almost every category in November, with his biggest improvement coming in shorthanded situations where his save percentage improved by over .200. His woefully low special teams percentage in October masked the fact that he was producing an elite level even strength percentage. With an improvement to mediocre powerplay standards, Price's statistics all experienced a significant jump across the board.

The question remains, what came first, the chicken or the egg? Did the Canadiens penalty kill improve in November because of Price, or did Price's numbers improve because of the penalty kill? Halak did not suffer the same special teams meltdown. Could that have had anything to do with the power of the opposition, or his own play?

With so many new faces and the loss of Markov, it is no surprise that the PK got off to a slow start. With the return of O'Byrne and Gill and the emergence of White and Pyatt, the October implosion by Price should be avoidable moving forward.

Interesting to note if Price had managed to produce an .878 powerplay SV% in October, his overall SV% would have improved from .889 to .920.

Price and Halak continue to get bombarded by shots and the Canadiens have once again regressed into becoming over reliant on goaltending to win hockey games. With the early season injury to the Canadiens best player (Markov in 2010, Koivu in 2002) and the continual 30+ shot barrages, this season is becoming eerily reminiscent of the 2002 season when Theodore needed to provide the difference every night.

With Price's numbers improving in November, the assumption would be that the Canadiens settled down and began to limit shots and scoring opportunities. The Canadiens actually surrendered an extra two shot attempts per game. Price still is averaging over a shot attempt against per minute on the ice, a trend that will either lead to a statistical regression or an MVP award. 

In 8 of his 11 starts in November, Price faced 30+ shots, including a team record tying 53 saves against the Predators and a 42 save gem that was seconds short of his 1st shutout of the season. Only once in his 11 games did he have less than 50 shots directed at him. Price continued to excel on shots outside of 20+ feet as he only allowed 7 of 257 shots to beat him. His SV% below 20' feet drastically improved and is pushing towards the league average. 

Price offered up plenty of spectacular saves in November, but also had some concentration lapses that resulted in some questionable goals, something that had been absent from his game in October (only 5 of 25 came in as questionable, with zero registering at fault). Although his statistics drastically improved over the month of November, with the Canadiens lack of scoring ability (25th in the NHL) and his unbelievably tough win threshold (see above), his margin for error was slim. This can be witnessed by his 0-4 record in the 4 games I credited a bad goal. In two of the games (Detroit and Atlanta) the margin of victory was one goal, the other two (Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh) were decided by two goals. As he matures, these goals should occur less frequently allowing him to become even more of a game changing player. He isn't yet ready to carry a team, but it seems the Canadiens have given him little to no choice in the matter presently.

Looking at the zones where Price has given up goals, his glove hand continues to be much maligned even though he has only been beaten high glove side 11 times through November (11/53). The reason for the questions lies in the amount of bad goals high glove side.  Out of the 12 goals categorized as suspect or bad, 6 have been high glove side, making it much easier to understand AND defend the criticism.

Looking at his November chart also gives the impression that he is very vulnerable low stick side, but looking at the video below shows that a lot of those goals came as the result of cross ice passes in which Price was not able to square up and were the result of him in transition. A small concern for me through two months has been his vulnerability through the 5-hole, an area he has not been able to cover with his stick either in transition or static and squared up.

Goals deemed questionable or bad are marked in bold.

26. Rich Peverley feeds it in front and it deflects off Bryan Little by a moving Price beating him 5-hole. 10 ft.
27. Pass from behind the net to a wide open Peverley in the slot, snaps a shot by Price low-stick side. 14 ft
28. Point shot by Mark Popovic that knuckles by Carey Price beating him high glove side. 59 ft.
29. 5 on 4 PP. Cross crease feed to a wide-open Pavel Kubina who directs it pass Price into an empty net. 5 ft.
30. Kane cross crease pass to a wide open Colby Armstrong who beats Price low stick side. 8 ft.
31. 6 on 5. Point shot. Price makes the initial stop, Patrice Bergeron rebound beats Price low-stick side. 5 ft.
32. 5 on 4 PP. Scramble. Price makes 2 saves but cannot stop Ryan Malone as he beats him five-hole. 11 ft.
33. Price, big rebound and Alex Tanguay alone, chips it over Price beating him high glove side. 14 ft.
34. 2 on 1. Scramble. Wright beats Gorges to the puck and slides it into an empty net. 6 ft.
35. Price highsticked in the throat by Mara falls down leaving an open net. Robert Lang puts it top shelf. 15 ft.
36. Point shot wide deflects into an open net off Bissonnette's skate beating Price low glove side. 12 ft.
37. Price makes initial save, Steve Sullivan all alone finishes off his rebound beating Price 5-hole. 7 ft
38. 5 on 3 PP. Point shot stopped, Sullivan at the side of the net beats Price low stick side. 14 ft.
39. Odd man rush, cross ice feed to the slot. Brandon Sutter chips it over Price, high glove side. 14 ft.
40. 3 one 2, cross ice feed one timed by Jussi Jokinen beats Price low glove side. 32 ft.                                
41. Eric Fehr snaps a shot from the face-off dot beating Price high-glove side. 25 ft.                                
42. Morrison takes a pass in front and moves opposite to Price's momentum beating him low glove side. 6 ft.
43. 5 on 4 PP. Brad Stuart point shot handcuffs Price and trickles in. 55 ft.                                
44. 5 on 3 PP. Brian Rafalski point pass tipped home by Pavel Datsyuk at the side of the net. 12 ft.                         45. Nash behind the net finds Vermette who one-times it past Price beating him high blocker side. 11 ft.
46. 5 on 4 PP. Rick Nash centers it, Stralman cheating off the point beats Price low blocker side. 24 ft.
47. 5 on 4 PP. Antoine Vermette's shot stopped, rebound back to him, beats Price low blocker side. 20 ft.   
48. Sidney Crosby snap shot from the top of the faceoff circle beating Price high glove side. 38 ft.                        
49. Bill Guerin from the corner. Price makes initial save, doesn't hold the post as he beats him 5-hole. 8 ft.
50. Crosby with a beautiful pass to a streaking Sergei Gonchar who beats Price 5-hole all alone. 8 ft.                
51. Point shot deflected in front by Brooks Laich beats Price low blocker side. 18 ft.                                
52. Alex Ovechkin one timer from the top of the faceoff circle beats Price low blocker side. 38 ft.                
53. 6 on 4 PP. Price stops a one-timer by Ovechkin, Fehr slides home the rebound beating Price 5-hole. 10 ft.

The November verdict: You have to be encouraged by the performance of Price and Halak through November and the improved penalty kill is a positive sign and a factor in Price's improved numbers. The volume of shots and scoring opportunities remain a major concern.  In October I preached patience because of the integration of 10-12 players and the introduction of a new system. With injuries creating a revolving door of players it is likely that this team has still not properly gelled. The Canadiens have fallen into a pattern of struggling to produce offense and relying on Price and Halak to bail them out, and this is a dangerous game to play with developing goaltenders. They have been able to provide some fantastic results through November, but if this continues they will struggle to make the playoffs. To provide room for improvement moving forward, the goaltenders get a B+ for November.

To view the October Price / Halak analysis, click here.