I think Jay’s theory #2 (our scouting is mediocre) of why Cleveland is where it is seems to make the most sense. To take it even further, I’m not sure that the Shapiro regime has been very successful in Latin America

Using Retrosheet, these are the only amateur free agents we have signed since 2001 to make the big leagues:

Argenis Reyes, Edward Mujica, Rafael Perez

My understanding is that Retrosheet only has this information for guys that made it to the big leagues so I can't tell how many guys we signed in those years, only that these are the only players to make it.

Raffy was a valuable member of the pen for two years, but this can't be the kind of production one wants to see. Granted, there is a bit of a lag here as most of these guys are signed when they are 16 so the oldest would be somewhere around 24. Interestingly enough, however, these three guys were all older than 16 when they signed.

In the pipeline, Hector Rondon, probably our best Latin American prospect signed in 2004.  Jeanmar Gomez and Kelvin De La Cruz, assuming they signed when they were 16 were also from the 2004 class. Another fairly prominent prospect, Carlos Rivero signed in 2005. Abner Abreu and Alexander Perez are still a little far away for me to start thinking too much about.

Looking at this, the question is what happened in 2001 (transition year), 2002 and 2003? I’m not sure if they spent a bunch of money and missed or they decided not to spend much in the region. And what about the guys in the pipeline, how much better are they? The problem is, when it comes to Latin America, there is so much that I don’t know. I have no idea how much money it cost to sign these guys, how much money we have spent total, how much comparative to other teams, etc.

In case anyone was wondering, Fausto, Victor, and Jhonny were all signed prior to Shapiro taking over. The other Latin American players, on the team and in the minors, were all received in trades.

I made this a fanpost as the last thread was way too long for my internet connection.

AL Central Recap-May

Sorry, the data is a couple days old and this isn’t incredibly well-researched. My internet connection, currently, is impossibly slow. Hopefully, some of you still find it worthwhile.  For what it’s worth, I like the Twins to take the division with about 85 wins, couple games ahead of the Tigers.

 Detroit Tigers (28-22)

The Offense (256 Runs Scored, 8th in league, .337 OBP, 8th, .422 Slugging, 9th)

Storylines: Brandon Inge, after a torrid April, is back to hitting like Brandon Inge. The offense is decidedly mediocre. Maybe Ordonez heats up and maybe Guillen gets healthy.

The Pitching (216 Runs Allowed, 1st in the league, 350 K, 7th, 166 BB, 5th)

Storylines: A quick and dirty look at the numbers would suggest that the Tigers are due for some regression on the pitching side as the results far outpace their peripherals. Verlander had a superior month. After only two months, the Edwin Jackson trade is paying giant dividends. Rick Porcello is 20. What he’s doing is nothing short of incredible.

Chicago White Sox (25-26)

The Offense (218 Runs Scored, 11th in the league, .324 OBP, 12th, .396 Slugging, 12th)

Storylines: Carlos Quentin has hit the DL with Plantar Fascitis. Josh Fields is struggling at the plate and is not a noted gloveman, either. Coincidentally, Gordon Beckham has played some third since moving up to AAA, though he could easily replace Getz as well. The three old sluggers are the extent of the offense.

The Pitching (228 Runs Allowed, 2nd in the league, 347 K, 8th, 170 BB, 7th)

                Storylines: Jake Peavy had his choice of becoming a member of the rotation and he decided in the negative. Danks and Floyd are struggling to repeat their breakout campaigns of last year. Mark Buehrle continues to take the ball every 5th game, work deep into games, and prevent runs at a better than average clip.

Minnesota Twins (26-27)

The Offense (261 Runs Scored, 7th in the league, .347 OBP, 6th, .430 Slugging, 7th)

Storylines: Joe Mauer is back, oh boy is he back. Justin Morneau, while not as good as his MVP voting totals would suggest, is a very good ballplayer. He never gets hurt. Kubel and Span , and Cuddyer (when healthy) have complimented the Big 2 nicely when healthy.

The Pitching (254 Runs Allowed, 10th in the league, 311 K, 12th, 147 BB, 1st)

                Storylines: The struggles here are surprising. Liriano just can’t seem to find it. Kevin Slowey has been good. His excellent command of the zone allows him to consistently work deep into games. Nick Blackburn’s smoke and mirrors act should expire at some point.

Kansas City Royals (23-28)

The Offense (209 Runs Scored, 12th in the league, .325 OBP, 11th, .405 Slugging, 11th)

                Storylines: This offense, quite simply, isn’t any good, and not likely to get any better. Kila Ka’aihue could probably produce more than Mike Jacobs and they could use Leo Nunez in the bullpen. I continue to be dumbfounded by the trade.

The Pitching (231 Runs Allowed, 4th in the league, 353 K, 5th, 165 BB, 4th)

                Storylines: Zach Greinke is having a special season. Good for him. Soria continues to pitch sporadically due to health. Brian Bannister and Kyle Davies have cooled off, after hot starts.

I am convinced that there isn’t a 90-win team in the division, and there might not be an 85-win team, either, though that seems unlikely. 1997 is an optimistic parallel. We started the season by going 12-13 in April, trailing the upstart Milwaukee Brewers who went 12-11. In April, the Indians both scored and allowed a ton of runs. The Indians only needed 86 wins to win the division.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS (12-10)

The Pitching (82 Runs Allowed, 2nd in the league in Strikeouts, 6th in walks allowed, as in fewest allowed)

Starters Used, Total Used: 6, 13

The Good: Zach Geinke is off to a much ballyhooed start (36 IP, .50 ERA), and one that is backed up with excellent peripherals (8 BB, 44 K). Gil Meche has also been very solid (31 IP 3.77 ERA).

The Bad: Sidney Ponson (23.1 IP, 5.79 ERA) is probably just holding this spot until Luke Hochevar gets called up.

The Bullpen: Joakim Soria has been limited by some soreness and has only thrown 5 IP. If he’s not healthy, this could be a big problem as there isn’t much besides Juan Cruz to like. No, I don’t believe Jamey Wright is going to keep this up.

The Offense (97 Runs Scored, 10th in the league in OBP, 7th in Slugging)

Position Players Used: 15

The Good: I think Alberto Callapso (.977 OPS) is obviously going to regress but I like him a lot. Very nifty trade as they sent Billy Buckner to Arizona to acquire him. Coco Crisp is acting like a slugger, drawing plenty of walks (16) and hitting for power (.224 ISO). John Buck has a slugging % of .700.

The Bad: Mike Aviles has been awful (.518 OPS) and it's not really that surprising even though he played really well last year. Alex Gordon was ineffective and now he’s out with a hip injury.

DETROIT TIGERS (11-10)

The Pitching (105 Runs Allowed, 9th in K, 5th in BB)

Starters Used, Total Used: 5, 14

The Good: Edwin Jackson (32 IP, 2.25 ERA) has been a revelation. He’s not this good, 4 unearned runs aren’t calculated in that ERA and the peripherals are merely good. Even so, this has been a very encouraging month or in our case discouraging. It’s hard to believe he’s only 25. Armando Galarraga has  picked up where he left off last year except with an uptick in both K% and BB%.

The Bad: Justin Verlander (28 IP, 6.75 ERA) has been awful thus far in terms of preventing runs and hits but has been missing a ton of bats (34) and issuing few free passes (9). This can’t hold up, either way. The Tigers are probably asking too much out of Rick Porcello (21.2 IP, 6.23 ERA) at this stage in his career. If and when Jeremy Bonderman is healthy, I think we’ll see him go back to the minors. Zach Miner has been predictably subpar.

The Bullpen: No real surprises here as it’s not very good, though Joel Zumaya is healthy, for now. Ryan Perry, coming into the season had pitched (or is it thrown) 13.2 professional innings at any level. I’m interested to see how this plays out.

The Offense (112 Runs Scored, 8th in OBP, 9th in Slugging)

Position Players Used: 15

The Good: Miguel Cabrera has been killing the ball (1.013 OPS) and this is a case of early season success where it might be sustainable. For his career, he has a ridiculous OPS+ of 141(per B-Ref which seems to be a couple of games behind) so for him to better that in his Age 26 is probably a solid bet. Brandon Inge (1.114 OPS), on the other hand, well, you get the point.

The Bad: Magglio Ordonez (.649 OPS) and Carlos Guillen (.594 OPS) are 35 and 33, respectively, and both have a history of injuries. Let’s hope it’s that instead of small sample size.

The Pitching (98 Runs Allowed, 10th in K, 7th in BB )

Starters Used, Total Used: 5, 14

The Good: Mark Buehrle (24 IP, 3.00 ERA) and John Danks (23 IP, 2.74 ERA) are pitching well. Danks, like Cliff Lee, saw his GB% take a big jump last year, and also like Cliff, it was critical to his success. Grain of Salt, but Danks’ GB% has gone up even more this year to 46%.

The Bad: Jose Contreras (22.2 IP, 6.75 ERA) has walked more batters than he’s struck out. Not good. Gavin Floyd (29.1 IP, 5.51 ERA) has been getting strikeouts (26) but is allowing way too many baserunners (52).

The Bullpen: Their Big 4 (Jenks, Dotel, Thornton, and Linebrink) have been very good (30.2 IP, 6 Runs).

The Offense (97 Runs Scored, 9th in OBP, 11th in Slugging)

Position Players Used: 15

The Good: Paul Konerko looks rejuvenated (.902 OPS) and Carlos Quentin (.961) continues to build on last years’ breakout. He’s a great hitter, but he’s also never made it through an entire season healthy.

The Bad: Alexei Ramirez looks to be in the midst of a sophomore slump (.559 OPS). If we were going to read too much into this, we’d say that teams have figured out some holes in his swing and have been exploiting them.

The Pitching (116 Runs Allowed, 11th in K, 1st in BB)

Starters Used, Total Used: 6, 15

The Good: Glen Perkins (29 IP, 2.48 ERA) and Nick Blackburn (31.1 IP, 4.02 ERA) were thought to be the weak links of the rotation going into the season. I’m still skeptical.

The Bad: To make another Cliff Lee comparison, in 2007, he got hurt in spring training and it derailed his entire season. So far, Scott Baker is following the same path (14.2 IP, 9.82 ERA) as he has been awful in his 3 starts since coming off the DL. He has served up an impressive 7 homers in those starts.

The Bullpen: The guy thought to be Nathan’s primary setup man, Jesse Crain, is hurt. On the bright side, lefty Jose Mijares has looked sharp in his 3 appearances.

The Offense (93 Runs Scored, 12th in OBP, 12th in Slugging)

Position Players Used: 13

The Good: Denard Span continues the lineup with much needed OBP (.391) at the top of the order. He’s also been playing a lot of center (10 starts) though I’m not sure how capable he is out there. Jose Morales (.391 OBP) is doing a pretty solid Joe Mauer impersonation. Mauer has not made it off the DL so far, though I do believe he is close to returning.

The Bad: Alexi Casilla (.447 OPS) is trying to cement his status as a slow starter. In his MLB career in April, over 120 plate appearances, he has a .469 OPS. In his minor league career, in 226 plate appearances, he has a .646 OPS. It’s his worth month in both cases. Along with Casilla, Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, Nick Punto, Carlos Gomez, and Mike Redmond have all failed to crack the arbitrary .650 OPS mark.

The battle for the fifth spot in the rotation continues, and there may be a new favorite. Scott Lewis has followed up an impressive cup of coffee in September with a fine showing in Spring Training. Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers are still in the mix, but Wedge’s comments seemed to me and Castrovince that Lewis might get the first shot at the rotation.

First shot at the rotation should be emphasized because Laffey and Sowers (and Huff and Jackson) are going to get their shots. Somebody is going to get hurt and/or someone is going to be ineffective so ultimately it may not matter a whole lot who wins the job out of the gate. With that being said, there may be real reasons, other than overall qulaity, to prioritize one guy over the other. Anthony Reyes, for example, is starting in the rotation because he’s out of options.

In Scott Lewis’s case, it might not be more than a case of riding the hot hand, but I think there might be another reason. Lewis is a fly-ball pitcher, a 39.3 career GB% in the minors. The average GB% amongst starting pitchers in the majors last year was 43.45%. This may be significant because conventional wisdom is that the ball doesn’t carry as well at beginning of the season, when the weather is cold. If this is true, Lewis would be benefited by this much more than Laffey.

To see if the conventional wisdom is in fact correct, I looked at some basic numbers. Thanks to Baseball-reference.com, I computed home runs per plate appearance in each month over the past five years in the American League. The lower the number, the more frequent the home runs.

This is obviously a very crude way to look at it and I don’t think it really tells us that much, but three of the five seasons do seem to support the cw, for whatever that’s worth. Even if it is true that fly balls don’t carry as well at the beginning of the season, the overall effect is probably not that great. But given that the difference in quality between the pitchers is small, this could potentially be a tie-breaker. Looking over the schedule, the fifth starter is set-up to get, at least his first few starts in cold weather open-air stadiums.

EDITOR'S NOTE:  ClarkM has done a bang-up job on these run-downs, which I imagine we'll all be referencing in early-season series against the Indians' divisional rivals.  By adding in the navigation above, I wanted to feature not just this final installment but the whole series of team breakdowns. Note that in some browser displays, you may not be able to see the whole width of the tables until you follow the jump. [Jay]

The White Sox won the Central Division last year by beating the Twins in a one game playoff. They finished the season with a record of 89-74, which was also their pythag record. However, the Sox, moreso than any other team in the division, lost some talent in the offseason. Not returning from last season: Javier Vazquez, Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, and Nick Swisher.

Let’s start out by looking at their positional players:

There is so much that can go wrong with this offense due to the potential declines of Thome, Konerko, Dye, and Pierzynski and the uncertainty at third, second, and center. The other two players, Ramirez and Quentin, had seasons last year that kind of came out of nowhere, so regression could be expected there as well. Another concern here is depth as they do not have adequate replacements at C, 1B, DH, LF, and RF.  According to BPro’s two team metrics, the White Sox were a little better than average on the basepaths and a little below average in the field last year. The farm system isn’t likely to help the offense this year as most of their position player prospects probably won’t be ready till next season.

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The Minnesota Twins finished second in the division after losing a one game playoff with the White Sox. Their record was 88-75, and had a pythag record of 89-74, though that is a little misleading as the Twins scored far more runs than expected due to their abnormally high batting average with runners in scoring position. BPro’s third order wins had them at 83-80.

Let’s start out by looking at their positional players:

This offense is incredibly reliant on Morneau and Mauer.  They need both of them to be healthy and productive if they are to contend. In ’07, they weren’t and they finished below .500. They are a very good baserunning team, but they are not a good defensive team. The farm probably won’t be able to help them much this year as their two stud prospects (Revere and Hicks) are a ways away.

The starters. This time around, I have computed GB+, which is 100 * GB% (player) / GB% (league), K+, which is 100 * K% (player) / K% (league), and BB+ = 100 * BB% (league) / BB% (player). Jay gets the credit for this idea. One thing to keep in mind, these categories aren’t created equally. It is better to be above average in K+ than to be above average in BB+, and better to be above average in BB+ than to be above average in GB+.

The Twins stress throwing strikes and that is reflected by the fact they are all above average in BB rate, with the exception of Liriano. Baker, Liriano, and Slowey make a very nice trio at the top of the rotation, but after them, the quality drops off dramatically. Also, unlike in years past, they don’t have a wave of pitching prospects coming up through the farm system. The other rotation options, which include Boof Bonser, Phillip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey aren’t very good.

The pen is similar to the Royals in that they have a nasty closer but not a whole lot in front of him. Jesse Crain is solid, Matt Guerrier and Craig Breslow are decent, but that’s pretty much it. They have been rumored to be in on Juan Cruz. That would be a good idea.

The Tigers’ offseason looks to be pretty much finished, so here goes. Last season, they finished last in the division with a record of 74-88. Their pythag record was 78-84 and this season, PECOTA projects them to finish 3rd with a record of 77-85.

Let’s start out by looking at their positional players:

This is a pretty good, but old offense. Cabrera is most likely going to be better this season, but I don’t see where else improvements are going to come from. They have some other guys like Raburn, Larish, and Clete Thomas that are decent placeholders, but their system lacks impact positional players. Last season, they were bad on both the basepaths and in the field. BPro’s two team metrics had them at 25th and 24th respectively. The defense should probably be better, if both Inge and Everett are healthy.

The starters. Using Rich Lederer’s criteria for starting pitchers, the average GB% was 43.45%. Average for K/BF% was 16.90%. Average for BB/BF%  7.89%:

There are too many wild cards (4) for the rotation to be a real asset. There is some upside, but I think more likely, this rotation could be a train wreck.  Miner and Dontrelle will probably get some starts as well.

The bullpen, like the last couple of season, will not be good. Lyon is a closer in name only. Rodney and Zumaya have perpetual health issues. Not much to like here, though Bobby Seay is pretty decent.

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