SB Nation User Blog: ClarkM

When to Promote Minor Leaguers

ClarkM — Thu, 15 May 2008 03:46:59 -0000

Ryan Miller (39 IP 23 H 8 R 2 HR 16 BB 42 K and a 2.52 GO/AO) and Kelvin De La Cruz (40.2 IP 34 H 10 R O HR 19 BB 37 K and a 2.22 GO/AO) are off to fantastic starts in Low-A. These numbers, to me, seem worthy of a promotion, but what factors are important in deciding whether to promote or not to promote, I honestly have no idea.

How much weight should we place on the guys in front of them at the next level? In this case, do you promote Steven Wright to clear space and/or move Espino or Carlton Smith to the bullpen?

How important is it to promote guys who have shown they are superior to the competion? Is there a danger of guys developing into bad habits if they are facing lesser competition, but what if there are still areas that need to be worked on? Is there a fear of promoting a guy too soon? Is this to small of a small sample to promote someone on?

How does Age and projection factor in? For example, De La Cruz is a year younger and from what limited information I have heard about the two, he's the one with the higher upside, but since Miller is older, does he need to be promoted more?

I am sorry I don't have much insight to provide, but I thought this would be an interesting topic of discussion that some of you could provide more insight on.

Some Random Rants

ClarkM — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 13:11:19 -0000

The Indians are 7-12, which is good for 4th place in the AL Central. They have scored 79 runs and given up 90. They haven't won a series since the first one. Our Ace has pitched awful and has shown no signs of turning it around. We owe Travis Hafner 49 million after this year. That contract looks worse everyday. Our most productive hitter bats 6th, behind the potent bats of Dellichaels, Hafner, and Peralta. Seriously, who wants to bet me that Garko won't hit better than both Hafner and Peralta in '08? Our lineup has little power, 10th in the league in homers and dead last in slugging. The lineup has made Greg Madduxes out of John Danks, Dana Eveland, Justin Duchsherer, Armando Gallaragga, Joe Saunders, Nick Blackburn, and Scott Baker. For whatever reason, the Indians kryptonite seems to be young, league average or below starting pitchers. The approach against these pitchers has been horrendous. Our 34 year old third baseman has an OPS+ 51 and he has only been given 2 days off. Andy Marte has gotten one start. A common criticism of the '08 Tribe going into the season was that they weren't going to get much production at 3rd, Left, and Right. Good thing that turned out to be totally off base. Obviously there have been some bright spots to start the season, but I am too frustrated to highlight those, and small sample size is acknowledged for most of the stats.

Bisons Box Score-4/10

ClarkM — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 21:45:48 -0000

Bisons Box Score-4/10

Sean Smith pitched well today, but more importantly the Bisons were able to contain Sal Fasano, always a tough job.

We Should Sign Barry Bonds

ClarkM — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 19:53:32 -0000

Seriously, we should sign Barry Bonds. The man is still a phenomenal hitter, and his defense isn't nearly bad enough to cancel it out. He would be a big upgrade over the present situation. I know Bonds brings baggage, but is that enough to ignore the fact that he got avoided making an out in almost half his at bats last year?

Everybody's favorite BP author Joe Sheehan wrote on the subject recently and THT's John Brattain has an article up today. While I don't endorse everything they say, its worhtwhile reading.

Bonds would help us win more games, and that's the goal, right?

Tigers Pitchers

ClarkM — Fri, 07 Dec 2007 23:42:04 -0000

Over the last few days, we have discussed the arrival of Dontrelle and Cabrera. The debate has seemingly come down to whether or not Cabrera's impact will offset the regression, if any, of some of the returning Tigers. I haven't seen to much talk of what to expect from the Tigers starters, and with little other than Jamey Carroll to talk about, why not discuss the matter.

Justin Verlander: 25 years old, righthanded, ERA+ the last 2 years, starting with the most recent (125, 126). The results were very similar for Verlander, but he got there in different ways. '06 was a lot of luck and last year he was pretty good. He should be one of the better pitchers in the American League next year.

Jeremy Bonderman: 25 years old, righthanded, ERA+ last 3 years (91, 112, 93). I'm not sure what to make of Bonderman. His Babip was the same as last year, so that wasn't an issue, but he did give up more homers and struck out fewer. He ended the season on the shelf, but I don't believe that it was too serious. I still feel that he could be very effective, but not as certain as I was last year.

Dontrelle Willis: 26 years old, lefthanded, ERA+ (83, 112, 151). As I have seen pointed out in a couple of places, the defense behind Dontrelle was really awful last year. I think he will be better than he was last year, but probably not by much, considering the switch to the harder league.

Kenny Rogers: 43 years old, lefthanded, ERA+ (103, 119, 134). The gambler only pitched 63 innings last year due to injury. He might provide more innings next year, but one would expect him to also be less effective. How much his age will catch up to him, I don't know.

Nate Robertson: 30 years old, lefthanded, ERA+(96, 119, 95). It appears that he was pretty lucky in '06, as his peripherals haven't really changed. It is unlikely that he ever has another season like '06, but I would expect him to be right around where he was this year.

Chad Durbin: As far as I can tell, he is their 6th starter. He is not young or particularly good. I don't know who they have after him, so the tigers will be praying for health.

BP's top 11 Indians Prospects

ClarkM — Sun, 11 Nov 2007 23:38:15 -0000

Kevin Goldstein over at Baseball Prospectus, today released his top 11 indian prospects. I'm not sure what all I can type here, since it is material from a paysite. He says that even though the Indians don't have many blue chippers, we have lots of depth. Some LGT favorites make their first appearance on a top ten, and a big surprise (to me) as to who is number 2. Thoughts on Goldstein's list or Indians prospects in general?

Props for the Dolans

ClarkM — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 23:50:24 -0000

Nobody took more shit than Paul and Larry Dolan over the last six years. The cleveland sports media made Dolan out to be the worst owner in sports. But, they believed in Shapiro and never interfered with his work. It appears that most everything Shapiro asked for, they gave him. The revenue just ain't there to support the large payroll, but when the Jake(or Cleveland Clinic BallPark) is sold out next year, it could be a different story. When the revenue goes up, I have no doubt that the payroll will too. I don't think you can ask for much more out of an owner.

Still work left to do, Go Tribe!

Umpiring and Instant Replay

ClarkM — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 23:50:28 -0000

Watching the BoSox Angels game, and the play by play guy asks the color guy, "What do you think of instant replay?" The color guy responds, "I am totally against it, takes the human element out of the game and the umpires get it right more times than not."

These two reasons don't work for me. Taking autonomy away from the umps and using technology for the purpose of making sure the game is correctly decided seems like a worthy goal. Besides, I don't see the umpires as part of the game, so taking them out of it, isn't taking the human element out of the game.

The second reason is ridiculous. Is the standard we hold umpires to really as low as, be right more than you're wrong?

To be sure, there may be some legitimate reasons for not using instant replay, but I hope they are better than these? Thoughts?

Rookie Phenom Relievers

ClarkM — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 22:22:22 -0000

Jensen Lewis over his last 10 games: 13.1 innings 5 hits 1 run 4 bb 14 k
Joba Chamberlain over his last 10 games: 13.2 innings 8 hits 1 run 3 bb 17 k

I thought this was interesting. Small sample size, yes, cherry picking the stats, a little, do these guys have different projections, yeah, but seriously this is why people hate the Yankees. A guy starts doing well, and we get overloaded with the Joba rules, his dad, and what are they going to do with him next year.

Shapiro and the Draft

ClarkM — Sat, 18 Aug 2007 18:17:54 -0000

With all the talk about the draft deadline, and the porcello signing in particular, I had read some posters complaints of Shapiro's drafts, and I started to get curious about how those drafts have turned/turning out.

I started with the 2006 draft and stopped at the 2001 draft which I believe was the first official Shapiro draft. I have listed the notable players, along with where they are now, and some very crude commentary. It seems to me that are drafts haven't been as successful as they could be, but that might have something to do with the excellent job that Shapiro has done in Latin America, aquiring prospects via trades, or a reflection of the difficulties of the mlb amatuer draft. I don't think these are terrible drafts, but simply average, and given our successes in other areas, I would expect a little more. I haven't gone through other team's drafts during this time period, so maybe it is better than I than I think. I was wondering what the thoughts were on this?

2006 draft

David huff-lhp-High A- hurt
Josh Rodriguez-ss-high a-won't stay at short, but has hit for some power

3.Wes Hodges-3b-high a-playing good, start next year at akron

Matt Mcbride-c-low a-lot of doubles, no word on his d, should start next year at Kinston
Steven Wright-rhp-has gotten hit pretty hard, but nice k/9
Adam davis-ss/2b-low a-inconsistent year, going nowhere
Ryan morris-lhp-young, looked good in rookie ball, hasn't had success at low a yet
Jared Goedert-3b/2b-high a-tore up low a, hasn't had success at high a yet

2005 draft

Trevor crowe-cf-aa-has not had success at aa yet for a full season. Struggled there to end last year, and first half of this year. Has picked it up of late, but still a major disappointment.
John Drennan-of-at high a, young for his level, has struggled at high a, seems to have a hole in his swing, lots of ks.
Steven head-1b-aa-never had success at high a, but got promoted anyway. Doubtful that he will ever contribute.
Jensen Lewis-rhp-Cleveland-is a member of the Indians bullpen, should become a solid middle innings guy.
Nicholas Weglarz-lf-low a-young and mashing the ball, has tremendous power and good eye, 3 true outcomes guy, might not be able to stay in left.
Jordan Brown-1b/of-aa-is banged up right now, but has had a good year, high average, lots of doubles, but needs to turn some into homers. Would help if he can play left also.
The rest-some college pitchers in high a, pitching okay, and an outfielder struggling in low a.

2004 draft

Jeremy Sowers-lhp-aaa-had success with the big league club last year, despite bad peripherals, came back to earth and then some this year. Has been demoted, and can't seem to find the success he had there the first time around.
Justin Hoyman-rhp-hurt I guess, haven't heard much from him.
Scott Lewis-lhp-aa-pitched good, not great, but still only 23. Not sure if he will start next year in aa or aaa.
Chuck Lofgren-lhp-aa-has hit a bit of a bump at aa, hasn't been able to match the success he had at lower levels, but still 21.
Tony Sipp-lhp-hurt, but may still be a contributor from the pen.

2003 draft

Mike Aubrey-1b-aa-he is hurt for the 27th time, and is probably done
Adam Miller-rhp-aaa-hurt again, has massive potential, but needs to stay on the diamond.
Brad Snyder-of-aaa-hurt, done.
Ryan Garko-1b-Cleveland-is a major contributor for the tribe.
Kevin Kouzmanoff-3b-San Diego-was traded, along with Andrew brown for Josh Barfield.
Aaron Laffey-lhp-aaa-had a brief stint with Indians, should be a member of the 2008 rotation.

2002 draft

Jeremy Guthrie-rhp-Baltimore-never contributed to the Indians
Micah Schilling-2b-flop
Matt Whitney-1b-high a-has started to play well at Kinston, 23, was set back by a freak accident in which is leg was broken badly. Hasn't shown plate discipline, but has hit for major power, and decent average this year between low and high a.
Brian Slocum-rhp-aaa-hurt, but may still contribute, but not likely.

2001 draft

1. Luke scott used as part of trade for Jerome Robertson. Everything else is pretty much empty.

Feel free to add anyone that I have forgotten and sorry for the long first post.