SB Nation User Blog: ClipperSteve

Getting Greedy - The S&T Scenario

ClipperSteve — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 19:35:50 -0000

First of all, credit where credit is due. Citizen John R is the first person who suggested the sign-and-trade as a way for the Clippers to have their cake (Davis and Brand) and eat it too (keep their cap exceptions, allowing them to add other pieces around them, certainly including Shaun Livingston).

It's very complicated, but here's how it might work. The simplest would be a straight up, Maggette for Baron double sign and trade. The math on this one is pretty inflexible. Maggette gets a 20% raise to avoid becoming a base year compensation player, from $7M to $8.4M starting salary. Baron then gets 125% plus $100K over that, the maximum allowable for a trade between two teams over the cap. (Remember that both teams are working over the cap in this scenario, since neither team would have renounced their rights to their players.) That comes out to a starting salary of $10.6M - the offer on the table from the Clips is rumored to start at $11M, so we're in the ball park. Bear in mind that since Baron would be signing with the Warriors in this scenario, he'd be eligible for a sixth year (maybe that's unlikely) and 10% annual increases versus 8%. The 10% increases alone would more than make up for the slightly lower starting salary. In other words, the Clippers can offer Baron a slightly better 5 year contract in a straight sign and trade for Maggette.

Of course, if the Warriors want Maggette, they can sign him outright for $8.4M or ever more. So there has to be something in it for them. That something would be a lottery protected first round pick. So in this fairly straightforward scenario, the Clippers give up a future pick to get their exceptions back (freeing up Donald Sterling to spend more money this summer, so maybe they're not fighting so hard for this after all), the Warriors get an extra pick for playing along, and everyone gets paid. Not bad.

Of course, Maggette's options now are seemingly (a) get paid on a bad team or (b) get the MLE and play for a title contender (the Spurs, Hornets, Magic and Celtics would all like to get him). The power of the S&T scenario for Maggette and those teams is that it potentially allows him to get paid AND play for a title. If one of those teams is REALLY interested in Corey, what would they be willing to give up to get him?

The problem is, none of those guys has the assets they're willing to part with to get this done. The closest thing on that list might be Hedu Turkoglu of the Magic. Do the Magic have enough interest in a Maggette reunion that they'd be willing to part with the reigning to get it done Most Improved Player of the NBA? And do the Warriors want Hedo?

John R originally brought up the Pistons, which is interesting because it puts Maggette on a good (though in the midst of reforming team) for greater than the MLE. Not to mention that the Pistons have stated publicly that they intend to make major changes. Either Tayshaun Prince or Rip Hamilton (who play the wing where Maggette would go) would slot into this trade without any other players being involved. Baron to the Clippers, Corey to the Pistons, Prince or Rip to the Warriors works fine. So that's interesting, right? The Clippers would have to include some filler salary to make this work for Billups or Rasheed Wallace.

Chicago is the other team that immediately comes to mind. With the Warriors losing Davis, they suddenly become the team desperate for a new starting point guard. We in ClipsNation have some familiarity with this situation as well. Baron to the Clippers, Maggette to the Bulls, Hinrich to the Warriors - done. Let's face it - that's not bad. The Warriors are only really looking at Maggette because they HAVE to spend their money on someone. But with Stephen Jackson, Brandan Wright, Marco Bellinelle and even Al Harrington, not to mention the fact that Monta Ellis isn't really a point guard, the Warriors are loaded down with wings. They need a point guard or a power forward. They're not getting Brand; they're not getting Josh Smith. Hinrich may be a better consolation prize for them than Maggette.

I don't think the absence of news means that people aren't working on these angles. Of course, Hoopsworld (a site that tends to make stuff up) is the only place other the ClipsNation where I've seen a reference to the S&T Scenario, so if someone is actually working on this, they're being pretty tight lipped. But don't forget that a key ingredient in all of this is the realization on the part of the Warriors that they're cooked. Right now, they're throwing money at every wall to see what sticks, and they're certainly in no mood to help either the Clippers or Baron Davis. When reality sets in and the realize it may be their best option, that's when something could get done.

.:: SPORTEC - Baloncesto ::.

ClipperSteve — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 23:55:21 -0000

.:: SPORTEC - Baloncesto ::.

It says that James Singleton has opted out of his contract with Tau Ceramica of the Spanish ACB and will probably sign with the Dallas Mavericks. I'm not sure how accurate that is - he'll probably be on their summer league team, but I haven't heard anything about him signing a contract. He's a guy I'd love to bring back to the Clippers for one of those last couple, minimum salary contracts.

No Shot Whatsoever: The Golden State Warriors made a bold move yesterday, counting on the fact th...

ClipperSteve — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 23:47:03 -0000

No Shot Whatsoever: The Golden State Warriors made a bold move yesterday, counting on the fact that in order for the LA Clippers to make the $65 million offer that Baron Davis has agreed to means the Clippers have verbally agreed to renouncing the rights to Elton Brand to get the deal done. That makes the Warriors $90 million offer roughly $15 million more that the Clippers have to offer. Informed Clippers sources say Elton has already agreed to the framework of a returning deal, that it was discussed and agreed upon. The sticking point for the Clippers are not terms of a new deal, rather putting together all the pieces in the right order to maximize the opportunity. The Miami HEAT are rumored to have made an aggressive sign-and-trade push for Brand, and the 76ers made contact as well. Informed league sources say they were turned away as Brand wants to return to the Clippers. The Warriors are hoping that $15 million more will be enough to get a discussion, but things may already be wrapped up. A league source confided that a sign-and-trade with Baron Davis is still not out of the question, and that the reason Corey Maggette has not accepted a deal is he too may find the Clippers willing to broker a deal for him, if it can return them a piece. Source say that part of this game is getting everyone comfortable with the loss of the asset, and then reaching a deal that gets everyone what they wanted, pointing to Seattle and Orlando's deal last year in which the Sonics got some draft picks for getting Rashard Lewis an extra year. The drama with the Clippers is not over, it just remains to be seen if Golden State can get anything out of the loss of Baron Davis, and it does not look like that will be Elton Brand.

Morning Report: No Shot At Brand? - HOOPSWORLD | NBA News, Rumors and Information

My New Heros - Citizen John R and Tim Kawakami

ClipperSteve — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 18:39:10 -0000

We've now entered a long holiday weekend. Not that it's impossible to conduct business over the Fourth of July, but I don't really expect any announcement until Monday.

In the meantime, it's quite gratifying to see that there are basketball writers out there almost as smart as our own Citizen John R. From the beginning, he's insisted that the Clippers do not have to renounce Elton Brand's Bird rights in order to sign Baron Davis. Once Maggette and Livingston are renounced, the first season dollar value of EB's deal is the only thing that matters in determining what's left over for Davis, and that amount can be established for Brand with or without renouncing him. The significance is that without renouncing him (i.e by retaining Bird rights) the Clippers can offer a six year contract, as well as 10% annual raises (as opposed to a maximum of 5 years and 8% raises). These things would seem to be crucial in this entire process.

So why then was the Clippers Brand offer being reported as for only 5 seasons? Even more disconcerting, basketball writers left and right were saying that the Clippers were offering only 5 years specifically because they had to renounce Brand first. So who's right?

Enter Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News. A Warriors beat writer for many years, Kawakami is definitely the go to guy for the GSOM crowd, which is enough for me to say that he's good at what he does. Turns out that Kawakami was struggling with exactly the same question that we were. The Collective Bargaining Agreement sure SEEMS to allow for the Clippers to offer Brand that sixth season. So why was the offer only for five? Were the Clippers being cheap? Were they confused? Or were those of us thinking that a sixth year was allowed the befuddled ones?

The great thing is that we have a record of Kawakami's thought process. From wondering aloud why others were saying he had to be renounced, to insisting that indeed he really did NOT have to be renounced, to finally uncovering that it was BRAND (and not the Clippers) insisting on a 5 year deal. Another nice thing is that Kawakami is infinitely better connected than either Citizen John R or myself, so he was able to get some questions answered, as opposed to just asking them.

To call Larry Coon a competent Capologist is an understatement. He wrote the book on the salary cap (or at least, he wrote the FAQ). Coon's FAQ is the one and only source of information I use when I want to know something about the CBA and the cap. I know that it's Citizen John R's primary resource as well. If Kawakami was able to put the question directly to Coon, and he said that the Clippers don't have to renounce Brand, then it's a done deal. No more questions to be asked. We strongly believed that before, based on John R's convictions and our own reading of the FAQ - but now it's a given. Larry Coon has spoken.

Next step for Kawakami - dig up the reason the Clippers offer currently stands at 5 years instead of 6. His sources (remember, he has them, I don't) tell him that it is Brand insisting on a 5 year deal. So the good news is that our worst fears (that the Clippers are so stupid as to either be trying to get cheap on the 11th of 11 cumulative contract years to two all stars at a discount or to simply be making a bookkeeping mistake by renouncing Brand when they didn't have to) are unjustified. The Clippers aren't that stupid (phew!) Of course it still begs the question, why would Brand be turning down the 6th year, at a season salary of $17M or so?

No one seems to know - not even Kawakami. He has two hypotheses: (1) the "Over 36" rule is driving Brand to insist on a slightly shorter deal now; (2) the current CBA could be expiring after 5 seasons, so maybe Brand will be in a position to make more money then.

I find the second theory very hard to believe. Bear in mind that (assuming we're right about the fact that Brand orchestrated these events and that he'll sign with the Clippers) EB is jumping through a lot of hoops so that he can take LESS than the maximum allowed in this contract. Is he really concerned that the new CBA would significantly alter the maximum amount of money he would be allowed to sign for in 2014 at the age of 35? If he's in a position to command the maximum salary in his NEXT contract (whatever the maximum is, whether it's from the current CBA or a subsequent CBA) then life will be very good indeed for Elton Brand. He's not concerned with that. He's just not.

The "Over 36" rule on the other hand may be a more reasonable concern. Here's the description of the "Over 36" rule in the aforementioned FAQ. As Kawakami says, it's complex. Really complex. I believe it is the longest entry in this particular FAQ, and that's saying something. But here's the gist - the "Over 36" rule exists to try to keep teams from overpaying for older free agents, simply by paying them years beyond their expected retirement. It applies to contracts 4 years and longer signed by players in their 30s (where in their 30s depends in part on the length of the deal). Note that the "Over 36" rule could in fact have also been a factor in Brand's decision to opt out of the final year of this contract. The "Over 36" rule would have kicked in for a six year deal next year, when he would be 30, limiting the perceived maximum value he could have squeezed out of playing out this contract.

As for the current negotiation, look at it this way. Assume Brand believes his shelf life to be about 9 more seasons - that would have him playing until he's 38. There are a couple of ways he can avoid the "Over 36" rule and still play until he's 38. If he breaks that into a six year contract followed by a three year contract, he avoids the "Over 36" rule which does not apply to contracts of three seasons or less. If he breaks it into a five year contract followed by a four year contract, he likewise avoids the "Over 36" rule which does not apply to 34 year olds signing 4 year deals, but DOES apply to 35 year olds signing 4 year deals. The "Over 36" rule is a major cap burden for the team signing him, and everyone will want to avoid it. So his best bet is to think 9 years out. Does he think he'll have more value as a 34 year old, trying to sign a 4 year deal than as a 35 year old trying to sign a 3 year deal? Maybe. What I can say without hesitation is that he is VERY SMART to be thinking about this now. I don't know that there's a huge difference to they way I see it. But it is a consideration for a 29 year old superstar, without doubt. (Of course, Falk is pretty smart too.)

Falk may have a strong feeling about negotiating contracts for older players. His most famous client ever, Michael Jordan, played until he was 40. And the last contract he negotiated with the Clippers was for an already 36 Sam Cassell. The most compelling reason I can think of for limiting this contract to 5 seasons is a psychological barrier for teams signing players over 35. It makes some sense. Opt out now, sign as a 29 year old instead of a 30 year old. It's easier for teams to justify spending big money on a player 'under 30'. By the same logic, sign a 5 year deal, and the next negotiation will be for a 34 year old. What team is going to sign a 35 year old to a huge contract? But a 34 year old? Hey, he's still under 35.

As for the bigger question, I remain 100% convinced that Brand will be a Clipper. As I mentioned yesterday, the potential bad news is that EB gets greedy and forces the Clippers to choose to pay him more, and in the process they lose Davis. But I'm almost as certain that this whole thing was Brand's idea, so he'll eventually sign at whatever amount allows the Clippers to have both stars.

So what's the delay? Could be any number of things. For one, I'm sure that Brand and Falk want to do their due diligence and hear all of the offers. It's just good business. If the Warriors and Sixers want to make a pitch, you listen to what they say. Even if it's almost impossible that you'll change your mind, you want to have a good relationship with these guys because you never know what's going to happen. Maybe you'll want to sign with them in 5 years. Maybe you'll get traded there. Not to mention that an offer could come in that totally wows them. Look at it this way - a week ago, most people thought Clippers best case scenario point guard for next season was Beno Udrih. Maybe Philly has something cooking that is too good to ignore. Probably not, but why not listen to their pitch?

Then there's John R's Phase 2. If Brand and Falk really are the puppetmasters pulling the strings on this deal, then they know that they have all the power. If their goal is to make the Clippers team as strong as possible, then forcing a sign and trade on Golden State is absolutely brilliant - the coup de grace on this whole thing. And from their perspective, there's plenty of time. Let the big time RFA's (Smith, Iggy, Emeka) re-sign with their teams. Let Arenas' deal get finalized. Let the Maggette bidding war get going. All the while, the Dubs are getting really desperate. It's particularly sweet if it lets Elton redeem himself with best man Maggs. "Look, Corey, I did what I had to do for myself, and I'm sorry you got caught up in it. But bide your time and work with me, and maybe we can get you paid too." Until July 9th (next Wednesday) there's absolutely no reason to rush.

Baron Davis confident he'll be playing with Elton Brand - Los Angeles Times

ClipperSteve — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 19:44:29 -0000

Baron Davis confident he'll be playing with Elton Brand - Los Angeles Times

Not a lot there. Baron says he's confident Elton will be a Clipper. He can't say a lot more than that, obviously.

Chris Broussard - Can the Clippers Compete?

ClipperSteve — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 19:02:35 -0000

Chris Broussard - Can the Clippers Compete?

The caveat on all of the analysis of the Brand-Baron Clippers is that the team is in the West. Broussard goes so far as to say that this team would be second to only Boston in the East. He puts the Lakers, Spurs and Hornets ahead of them, and lumps them in the group with Utah and Houston and the rest. I'll take that.

Chris Broussard on Maggette's Options

ClipperSteve — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 18:58:27 -0000

Chris Broussard on Maggette's Options

Maggette may have to take a pay cut, but he's got some really good teams interested in him. It's not all bad for the Clippers' favorite son.

July 2

ClipperSteve — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 04:33:34 -0000

On June 30th, a lot of stuff happened. The Clippers declined to offer Shaun Livingston a qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent. Corey Maggette opted out and became a free agent. Then Elton Brand opted out and became a free agent. And although I've insisted that it's all good news, it was still more than a little nerve-wracking. The Baron Davis opted out and became a free agent. Then a lot of speculation started that Davis and Brand might both be willing to take pay cuts to play for the Clippers. But it seemed a little to good to be true. Meanwhile, coach MDsr was having a romantic late supper with Beno Udrih.

On July 1st, a lot of stuff happened. Jose Calderon re-signed with the Raptors. Udrih re-signed with the Kings. The already slim pickings among free agent point guards were getting slimmer very quickly. But speculation heated up that Davis would sign with the Clippers. When one report said that a decision could come as early as Wednesday, it seemed to good to be true. And then it got better. The deal was done, and Davis and the Clippers had agreed to terms. Brand was clearly part of Davis' decision, and his own deal would be negotiated in short order. It cost the club favorite son Corey Maggette, but overall it was one of the great days in team history.

Today, July 2nd, there's nada.

Just rumors about what OTHER teams are throwing at our free agents. Corey Maggette will have his pick of contenders to play for while making the mid level. Oh, and the Summer League roster. And a massive contract offer from the Warriors to Brand, seemingly playing tit for tat.

I read the other day about a situation in a minor league baseball game where an ambidextrous pitcher was facing a switch hitting batter. The pitcher had his specially designed glove on his left hand, preparing to pitch right-handed - so the batter got into the box on the left. The pitcher switched his glove over - the batter asked for time and went to the other side of the plate. This went on for awhile, until the umpire put a stop to it.

There's no way the Clippers made an offer to Baron Davis that will cost them Elton Brand. No. Way. It is in fact my assumption that Baron's contract amount (which is completely determined by Elton's contract amount) was cleared with Brand and agent David Falk before Davis ever agreed to it. If the Warriors think they are changing the game by putting more money on the table, they aren't. And even if Brand decides he wants the money over the better teammate (it is a lot of cash, after), the Clippers will pull the plug on the Davis deal and give Elton what he wants. But don't forget - this was all Elton's idea. He'll sign with the Clippers for the lesser amount. For all intents and purposes, he already has.

So what's the delay? Who knows. Look, it's one day. According to the LA Times, Elton's traveling today. Maybe they just couldn't get everyone together. Besides, with all the speculation about collusion (frowned upon, if not necessarily illegal for players and agents), I think it behooves Elton to pretend to be interested in offers from the Warriors and the Sixers. So he'll listen. And then he'll sign with the Clippers for less.

I've been meaning to mention, and now's as good a time as any, that David Falk is Sam Cassell's agent as well. We said several times during the Cassell buy out fiasco last February, that the one and only good thing that could come out of releasing Sammy was that Falk would be more inclined to work with the Clippers when Brand's contract was due.

It was a tougher day today, waiting for good news that didn't come, watching the vultures start to circle. But the vultures won't touch the body as long as it's still kicking. And this deal is far from dead. Brand and Davis will be Clippers next season. Brand's deal will be announced soon. How soon? Maybe tomorrow. Maybe July 9th. But it will happen.

UPDATE: July 3, 9:40 AM Marc Stein of ESPN implies that there's a chance Brand will take the Warriors offer. Don't believe him. For one thing, when you read what he's written, even he doesn't believe Brand will be a Warrior. So why imply otherwise? These guys sell drama. With no official word from anyone, they're completely free to make this seem as tense as they like, as long as they don't say anything totally wrong that will make them look stupid later (and sometimes even then).

What evidence are we working with here? Next to nothing. He hasn't said he's a Clipper - so that's the absence of evidence. He flew to D.C. to meet face-to-face with his agent. As we've said from the beginning, if the Clippers were in real danger of losing EB for more money, they would simply say, "We'll back out of the deal with Baron and give you that money." Either way, Brand is a Clipper. The fact that Brand is in D.C. fits that scenario fine. The ball is totally in Brand's court, and he has two choices. More money and no Baron Davis in LA, or less money with Baron Davis in LA. Money in Oakland doesn't even make the list.

So, you're welcome to be nervous about the possibility of losing out on Baron Davis. That could happen, although I doubt it. But don't worry about Elton wearing that silly shiny gold uni next year. Not even a remote possibility.

Summer League Roster

ClipperSteve — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 22:39:35 -0000

The Clippers announced their Summer League Roster about an hour ago. I would say that I'm a little disappointed on the free agents they're bringing along, but it's hard to get too upset about anything after the events of the last week.

In addition to the players we already suspected would be there, the Clippers announced four other names:

Koko Archibong, a 6'8" forward from Penn;
Brandon Heath, a 6'4" guard from San Diego State;
Dustin Salisbery, a 6'5" guard from Temple and
Darryl Watkins, a 6'11" center from Syracuse.

Darryl Watkins is the only one of the four with any NBA experience - he played 9 games, 71 minutes, for the Kings last season.

Here's the full text of the press release from the Clippers communication department.

Al Thornton and Eric Gordon, the 7^th overall selection in the 2008 NBA Draft will highlight the Los Angeles Clippers entry in the 2008 NBA Summer League Presented by EA SPORTS which will take place July 11-20 at the COX Pavilion and Thomas and Mack Center on the campus of UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada. The league will feature 21 NBA teams with several games televised nationally on NBA TV.

The team will hold a four day mini-camp at the Spectrum Club South Bay in El Segundo on July 7^th, 8^thand 9^th prior to leaving for Las Vegas on July 10^th. The Clippers roster and schedule for the 2008 NBA Summer League are listed below:

#          Player                            POS    HT           WT      BORN                        FROM                          YEARS PRO

32       Koko Archibong           F          6-8          215     10/5/81                      Pennsylvania                        R

20       Nick Fazekas                F          6-11        235     6/17/85                      Nevada                                  1

23       Eric Gordon                  G         6-3          222     12/25/88                    Indiana                                  R

7          Brandon Heath            G         6-4          198     3/01/84                      San Diego State                 R

6          DeAndre    Jordan       C         6-11        250     7/21/88                      Texas A&M                            R

9          Dustin Salisbery          G         6-5          205     10/19/84                    Temple                                  R

4          Mike Taylor                    G         6-2          166     1/21/86                      Iowa State                             R

12       Al Thornton                   F          6-8          220     12/07/83                    Florida State                         1

31       Darryl Watkins              C         6-11        258     11/08/84                    Syracuse                               1

3          Marcus Williams          F          6-7          207     11/18/86                    Arizona                                   1

Head Coach: Mike Dunleavy

Summer League Head Coach: Jim Eyen

Assistant Coaches: Kim Hughes, Rory White, Neal Meyer

Head Athletic Trainer: Jasen Powell

2008 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS NBA SUMMER LEAGUE SCHEDULE

July 7:         Mini-Camp                    6:00-8:00 PM                Spectrum Club South Bay

July 8:         Mini-Camp                    *9:00 AM-11:00 AM      Spectrum Club South Bay

                                                            5:00-7:00 PM

July 9:         Mini-Camp                    *9:00 AM-11:00 AM      Spectrum Club South Bay

                                                            4:00-6:00 PM                Scrimmage at Lakers

July 10:      Mini-Camp                    *9:00 AM-11:00 AM      Spectrum Club South Bay

July 11:    vs. Dallas                      7:00 PM                         COX Pavilion

July 12:    vs. Charlotte                 3:00 PM                         COX Pavilion

July 13:      vs. Detroit                      7:00 PM                         COX Pavilion

July 14:    Practice                         2:00-4:00 PM                Thomas and Mack Center

July 15:    Practice                         11:00 AM-1:00 PM       COX Pavilion Practice Court

July 16:      vs. Memphis                 7:00 PM                         COX Pavilion

July 17:      vs. New Orleans          3:00 PM                         COX Pavilion

*Please note that media availability during the Clippers Mini-camp from July 7 – July 10 will be following the early practice sessions only.

Please contact the Clippers’ Communications Department at (213) 742-7500 for updated information regarding practice times and media availability times.

Now Miami Wants to Try for Brand Again

ClipperSteve — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 20:13:36 -0000

According to Yahoo Rumors, the Heat are preparing a sign and trade offer for Brand. Why are they wasting their time? "To appease Dwyane Wade." Is Dwyane Wade stupid? Does he think an offer that has zero chance of succeeding is a nice gesture? The Heat surely have better things to do.

"Hey Elton. I know you decided to take less money so you could help the Clippers sign Baron Davis and be super competitive in LA where your movie production career is. How about coming to Miami for the same money? Oh, and Clippers, would you please play along with out little sign and trade idea? That would be great. Thanks. Here's a one year rental on Shawn Marion for your trouble."