There was a lot of talk about the O's having a lot of payroll flexibility last month since they were committed for next year somewhere in the low $40M range, thanks to the expiration of some bad contracts.  Since then, we've added Kevin Millwood ($9M after $3M check from Rangers clears), Mike Gonzales ($6M), Garrett Atkins ($5M w/buyout included)

So how much payroll space do we have to work with?  Well, arbitration hearing are coming, so we have to guess at who is getting what.  And do we have enough space to hire a DH, given that the market is about $5-$7M a year for the top of the market guys like Vladimir Guerrero and Hideki Matsui.

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Runs scored: 39  (3.0/G)

Runs allowed: 85 (6.5/G)

Read the jump if you want to see some really bad batting/pitching lines. It's all some cherry picked BS but you may find it interesting if you need some depressing news to keep you on an even keel after the win.  Props to http://www.baseball-reference.com/ for making this easy.

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http://masnsports.com/2009/08/adding-to-the-inventory.html

They claimed right-hander Chris Lambert off waivers from the Detroit Tigers today and assigned him to Triple-A Norfolk.
Lambert was 0-1 with a 14.85 ERA in two games with the Tigers this season, and he’s 1-3 with a 7.90 ERA in 10 career games in the majors.
Lambert, 26, went 6-7 with a 3.55 ERA with Triple-A Toledo this year. He’s 40-41 with a 4.40 ERA in 142 career games in the minors.
The Cardinals selected Lambert in the first round (19th pick) of the 2004 draft.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/08/orioles-claim-chris-lambert-from-tigers.html

Lambert, a 26-year-old righty, allowed 121 hits and 31 walks in 126.2 innings at Triple A Toledo, striking out 106. His major league ERA this year is 14.85 in just two appearances, but his minor league ERA is a quarter of that.

AAAA type or solid prospect? I know the Tigers are awash in pitching but I can’t imagine they’d let go someone with a whole lot of promise.

since he's a FA 3B (complete list here) next year.  Who would you lead off with?  What would the lineup look like?

They are the same age, 32 next year.  Both switch hitters.

Both guys are consistently above avg in AVG and OBP,  AVG comparison yearly

What's troubling for Bob is the trend in BB% and K%  BB/K comparison

Who has more speed?   G AB SB CS SB%  AVG (career)

Brian Roberts   1055  4176  242  62   .796  .283

Chone Figgins   855  3272  262  87  .750  .292 

Figgins has playoff experience, which has been shown to cause mid-30s career declines.  (See Mora, Melvin and Walker, Jaime)

For me, Figgy swipes more bags, by a lot, so he leads off.  It's a tough choice and a good problem to have.   Here's a crack at the top halfish

Figgins

Roberts

Markakis

Huff

Jones / Reimold

Other 3B FAs include Adrian Beltre, who can pick and is injured and expensive.  Maybe he'll get cheaper as an injury risk.  Brandon Inge can pick and is a bad hitter having a good year at the plate, so his price is going up.  There are others, maybe an obvious choice that I missed?  Which leads me to the poll...

Please choose one of the following:  Feel free to discuss, explain your choices.  I'm babbling because I need 75 words.  I'm rooting for B but expecting C.  I think Pie is starting to heat up.  I hope Reimold stays hot.  Nick Markakis is good at baseball.

A) No hitter, 17Ks

B) ESPN: Greinke gives up 7 runs in blowout loss to OTHER_BASEBALL_TEAM

C) Eaton is Eaton, Greinke is Greinke, KC 7 BAL 1

D) None of the above.

We know the pitching is a problem, but I'm going to try to dive into the numbers and pinpoint what the exact problem is.  Reference links at the bottom of the post.

K/9: 7.01 (14th in MLB, 5th in AL)

Our strikeout leader is...Adam Eaton.  Guts and Koji have a K rate in the 5's, which isn't very good at all, and Ray is at 11.  Overall, respectable.  This may be the low point between Bedard and Good Danny, and the Cavalry we are continuously being promised.  For now, if our two main starters could miss a few more bats, we'd be in much better shape.  More on that in a bit.

BB/9: 3.25 (4th in MLB)

How weird is that?  Our spare parts pitching staff has division-best control.  I think getting rid of Death Cab dropped that by at least two points.  Capt Kirk keeps telling them to throw strikes, and they're actually doing it now. 

HR/9: 1.86 (29)

Giving up more HR than everyone but the Phils...of course, Simon with his videogame-like 7.11 HR/9 won't be back, and Bass seems to have gotten it out of his system, at least for a while, our bright spot here is...Adam Eaton (2 in 21.1IP).  Guts/Koji have each given up 5, that tall lefty has served up 7 meatballs, and I haven't even mentioned Fly Ball Sherril, as he hasn't gotten started yet.  We need to work on this.  Badly.

WHIP: 1.63 (30)

So how can we be so stingy with free passes and have the highest WHIP in the bigs?  We let them hit the ball.  A lot.  Why take a walk when you can hit a hanging curveball or an 88 mph fastball to Pie or Wigginton or to a fan out in the bleachers? 

Opponents are hitting .308 against us, highest in the majors. SLG is an ugly .541, thanks to 40 HR and 58 2B.  The second worst SLG in the AL is CLE with .485.  It's like everyone we face turns into a team full of Ryan Brauns, except for Ian Kinsler, who would probably take a pay cut to face us more often.

Our current rotation (H/9): Guts (11.1) KOJI (8.4) Handu (12.8) Bergy (13.0) Eaton (12.2).  One of these things is not like the other. One of these things is acceptable.   The number of hits we give up is so bad that it's turning our advanced defensive statistics into a statistical anomaly.  We're rated last here, but we know that's not true, with certain exceptions.  Don't get me started on defensive stats.

GB% (MLB avg: 43.3%):  Guthrie (30.3), Eaton (29.0), and Uehara (23.9) are sub-poor to poor here.  Bergesen is a rock start here with 61.1%, and Baez and Bass are also above 50%, probably Bass's saving throw.

FB% (MLB avg: 28.4%): Guthrie (51.5%), Uehara (58.8%), Hendrickson (46.4%), Eaton (47.8%).  See the problem?  Sherril (51.5%) is our closer.  Bergy, JJ, Bass, and Baez are the only pitchers below average here.

Summary: When we're pitching, we're throwing strikes that batters like to hit.  We need to get the ball down and past the hitters.  Relying on the defense is great to an extent, but we're overworking the defense, and the opposition is exploiting the weak points.

Our rotation and our bullpen are about the same overall.  The bullpen is the most overworked in the majors, but if you didn't see that coming, you don't know much about baseball and pitching and the Orioles.  I don't think that's a bad thing, as we have lots of guys ready and willing and semi-able to do the job, and while we need our starters to last longer, we need to plan for them not to.

One thing I'm wondering about, and that's if the way we dealt with pitching in ST (bringing 37 guys in and letting them all fight it out) didn't set us back in the development department.  By not focusing on the important guys (since we didn't know who they were going to be for the most part) I wonder if we didn't give them enough opportunity to build up per a plan.  Guts in the WBC was probably a bad idea, and his early struggles hopefully stay early.  Simon probably got hurt puching himself too hard too early.  Bass was a nightmare early but he seems to be in a groove lately.  Koji is climbing his learning curve, Bergy will probably have fits and starts and pitch a couple of gems and get hammered a bit.  Eaton will be crappy and pretty good.  By now everyone should be ready to be competitive, at least conditioning wise.  Winter is now behind us and we need to work on getting velocity up and pitches down.  We actually have a fighting chance to be a decent team if we can do that. 

References:

Fangraphs

Baseball Reference

Stat Corner

Stat Corner Glossary

Thanks to Roch:

"I'd like to dispel this with Adam Eaton," Trembley said. "I don't think every time that Adam Eaton pitches, it's a critical situation or a crucial situation. I think with hitters, you give them at-bats. I think you give them 75-100 at-bats. Adam Eaton has pitched for a long time. I don't think the notion ought to be that, every time he pitches out there, if he pitches good, he's on the team. If he doesn't pitch good, he's going to get replaced. I don't think that's real fair.

"If he pitches great tomorrow, everybody's going to jump on the band wagon and say, 'Hey, what a great pitcher he is.' And if he doesn't pitch well, people are going to say, 'Well, is that the last time you're going to start him?' Let's see how he does and evaluate from there.

"I think it's important that, as a team, we have an opportunity to win a series against the White Sox. We lost tonight. We didn't play well enough to win. They pitched better, they caught it better, they got timely hitting, and we didn't. Tomorrow is a new day and we have to pitch better than they do tomorrow. We have to catch it better, we have to hit better. And I don't think it's solely Adam Eaton. I think it's the team. I think it's this group. Certain guys on one particular day are better than others. That doesn't mean you cast them aside in a corner and just say, 'Hey, we've got to change this thing and do something different.' What we have is what we have. We'll do the best we can and show confidence in our guys."

No Dave, if he pitches great tomorrow, we'll all say something like 'a broken clock is right twice a day'. He's so inefficient that he's averaging 20-25 pitches an inning.  I'd rather have Garrett Olsen back.  He's better than Trachsel, I guess.

And did he just let slip the Pie at-bat countdown?

Because that's what we need.

We need 2 starters (at least 0-2WAR) for 2 years. People with experience, but not old ex-superstars that might be douchey. Then we let Olsen/Liz/Waters/Bass/Penn/??? fight it out for the job. In 2010, add Tillman/Matusz/Arrieta.

MLBTR FA list here

Should we get a near retiree like Randy Johnson or Glavine?

Should we get a injury/rebound type like Pavano?

Should we drop some coin on Lowe?  (i like this one if we don't get that other expensive guy)

Looper?  Garland? Hire a Japanese speaking pitching coach?

Hopefully I didn't mention someone who already got signed...

I found this in the comments on MLBTR during their monthly Brob-to-Cubs post:

Huff and Roberts for Derrek Lee, Sean Marshall, Josh Vitters, Jose Ceda, Tony Thomas and Tyler Colvin

The Orioles get a solid 1B in Lee to keep their offense churning from the previous season, as well as a solid young 4/5 lefty to slot into hte rotation. On top of that they get a great pure hitting prospect in Vitters, a potential lockdown closer, a potential quality replacement for Roberts and a good OF prospect. The Orioles would have a good offensive core with Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Rowell, Vitters, Snyder, Thomas, Colvin and Reimold.

The obvious Cubs fan got wood over the lineup they would get.  I could go for Lee, although he ain't cheap, $13M until 2010.  Marshall needs work, and the others are all highly touted A to AA prospects that might be ready in 2-3 years.  We would need to find a whole middle infield and a DH.  Good idea?  Bad idea?