SB Nation User Blog: Colinski

REBUILDING -- a developmental perspective

Colinski — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 19:57:26 -0000

There are many ways to categorize things. A book by George Lakoff, Women, Fire and Dangerous Things; what categories reveal about the mind, comes to mind when thinking about how we see the world. And it should be noted that I, like other males, tend to remember the title of that book as Women, Fire and [OTHER] Dangerous Things, which says something about my attitudes -- I guess.

What's this about?

Broncobear wrote an exemplary topic HERE which breaks down the Broncos into neat categories but there's another way of looking at the team. That is -- age.

I wish I could say that I had an elaborate entry complete with graphs and pictures but I don't. This is a subject that I had to post because I couldn't find another topic to attach it to.

We know that players develop over time, and the dreaded "upside" that we often talk about is often simply a function of age -- young players become better once they're given experience. So the question of how well we'll perform this season could be re-categorized into one that simply looks at age.

The first thing that one notices about the Broncos is that they're now very young.

OFFENSE

QB - Brandstater (1st yr.)

RB - Moreno (1s yr.), Torain (2nd yr.)

FB - Hillis (2nd yr.)

WR - Royal (2nd yr.), McKinley (1st yr.)

TE - Quinn (1st yr.)

LT - Clady (2nd yr.), Polumbus (2nd yr.)

LG - Lichtensteiger (2nd yr.)

OC - Schlueter (1st yr.)

RG - Olsen (1st yr.)

RT - Harris (3rd yr. - first yr. was lost)

DEFENSE (note: I'm guessing on positions and who will make the team for the defense, which doesn't change the point of this topic)

LDE - Powell (2nd yr. -- lost first year), (?) - McBean, (3rd yr. -- yet to play in regular season)

NT - Thomas (3rd yr.). (?) - Baker (1st yr.)

RDE - (?) - Jones (1st yr.), (?) - Pedescleaux (1st yr.)

LOLB - Crowder (3rd yr.)

LILB - Larsen (2nd yr.)

RILB - Woodyard (2nd yr.)

ROLB - Ayers (1st yr.), Moss (3rd yr.)

CB - Williams (2nd yr.)

CB - Smith (1st yr.)

SS - Barrett (2nd yr.)

FS - McBath (1st yr.), Bruton (1st yr.)

This is a graphic way of demonstrating that we could field a team composed of young players if we wanted to. It wouldn't necessarily be a good idea but we're not going to be forced field an inexperienced team because we do have some veterans. Here they are:

OFFENSE

QB - Orton, Simms

RB - Buckhalter, Jordan

FB - ? -- (roster space limits this position)

WR - Marshall (4th yr), Stokley, Gaffney, (?) - Lloyd

TE - Graham, Scheffler (4th yr.)

LT - ?

LG - Hamilton

OC - Wiegmann

RG - Kuper (4th yr.)

RT - ? - Gorin

DEFENSE

LDE - (?) - Clemons

NT - Fields

RDE - Peterson

LOLB - Reid

LILB - Davis

RILB - D.J. Williams

ROLB - Dumervil (4th yr.)

CB - Bailey

CB - Goodman

SS - Dawkins

FS - Hill

It wouldn't be good if we had to field an extremely young team but there's a number of veterans who will be the starters.

I won't attempt to over-explain the developmental thesis but the basic idea is that teams that MUST rely on rookies and younger (as in lacking experience) players don't do well, but that's all depends on 'how much' they have to rely on those younger players. Teams can be young in terms of depth as long as they don't have to rely on too many rookies in key positions. The real question here is -- do we have enough quality veterans in key positions to carry us?

Curiously, many of the 'older younger' players are on defense and there's still room for them to develop and deliver on their upside. And this could be a good thing. We know that DLs take longer to develop so the fact that we have many slightly older young players could mean that they're ready to break out.

A sub-topic to this post could be summed up as: Are Thomas, Moss and Crowder ready to break out? Although many people feel that some of the aforementioned are busts, it's tough to measure success and particularly tough when DLs have undergone a rough developmental experience such as Bates' Run Contain and Slowik's scheme of last year. In particular, it's very hard to believe -- for instance -- that we simply blundered when selecting Crowder, and this could also be said of Moss, even though many believe that we should have waited to pick him.

I'm not down on traditional categories such as: will we have a pass rush?, etc., but an easier way to look at the situation is through age/experience. The defense's performance in 2007 & 2008 suffered from coaching, scheme changes and a lack of talent. Sometimes a weakest link logic applies and it's hard to point out where the problem is, and everyone looks bad as a result. That's also the saving grace since a number of incremental improvements can yield a major improvement in team success, and especially for defenses.

I won't try to predict but young teams often do have growing pains, but that also assumes that we'll be fielding a team of young starters -- which we will not. The bright side of the story is that we have an enormous nucleus of young talent that will be able to play together and grow. Unlike many fans who see our draft in terms of their own expectations, I see the largest accumulation of young talent in Bronco history.

You can question my Kool-aid drinking tendencies but the proof is in the roster above -- which is why I wanted to present it in graphic form to make my point. We already began the rebuilding project in 2006, even though many of us may not have realized it, and even the Cutler trade helped in terms of bringing more (although not necessarily qualitatively better) talent into the fold. This is a young and very talented team that should get better as they gain experience.

Nuggets are going to trade for Ty Lawson. The pick was #18 and selected by the Minnesota...

Colinski — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 01:24:24 -0000

Nuggets are going to trade for Ty Lawson. The pick was #18 and selected by the Minnesota Timberwolves, who will trade for a pick Denver obtained from Charlotte last year.

Denver Broncos officially rebuilding

Colinski — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 03:01:24 -0000

Denver Broncos officially rebuilding

Bleacher Report has a quality analysis that provides insight into our attitudes after the coaching change and how our resistance to change was an obstacle to improving the team.

Good stuff!

MOCK 5 (DrafTek version 2)

Colinski — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 23:22:06 -0000

I'll be keeping track of priorites and revising if inappropriate players appear -- such as Herman Johnson, who I've overruled as ZB inappropriate.

OFFENSE

QB = 4, RB-F = 5, RB-C = 9, WR-F - 6, WR-P = 0, WR-S = 4, OT = 9, OG = 6, OC = 4, FB = 9, TE = 6

I'll trying to get a Center this time. I'm purposely limiting the needs for positions such as WR and RB although they're still lower priorities. The real problem here is that categories are an unnecessarily limiting factor. I'll open the needs again later but keep the priorities low.

DEFENSE

DT43 = 9, DT34 = 3, DE43 = 0, DE34 = 2, OLB43 = 9, OLB34 = 4, ILB = 3, SS = 4, FS = 4, CB = 4, PK = 9

#12) - Maualuga - ILB ( -6)

#18) - Evander Hood - DE34 ( -14)

#48) - Freeman - QB ( +20)

#79) - Antoine Caldwell - OC ( -11)

#84) - Rashad Jennings - RB-F ( +1)

#114) - Keenan Lewis - CB ( +8)

#149) - Chris Baker - DT34 ( -56)

#185) - Quan Cosby - WR-F ( +14)

#225) - Bear Pascoe - TE ( +23)

#235) - Al Afalava - SS ( +4)

Not a lot of difference between this one and the last DT version, HERE.

I'll comment to replies.

MOCK 4 (DrafTek version 1)

Colinski — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 18:30:44 -0000

One of the most interesting toys for draftniks is DrafTek's online simulator, which allows one to mimic the real draft.

I'm not entirely happy with their consensus Simulations lately; I just don't think an OG such as Herman Johnson is an appropriate choice for us no matter whether we have a need in that area or not. So, there are problems with the simulations even though they've taken steps to remedy these problems with the 'appropriateness' of selections.

Despite the rough edges, simulations replicate many aspects of the draft -- such as how competition affects availability of crucial positions in the 3-4 defense -- that aren't present in any other MOCKs. Those other MOCKs are merely a single individual's opinion of who every team should take, and necessarily suffer problems because of this.

The final and saving grace for the DrafTek simulations is that you can 'tweak' the inputs and see who it selects under the new criteria. You can also "grab or lockout" players (as I did with Herman Johnson) when there are problems with appropriateness or there's a player you think is undervalued and needs to be selected early.

Finally, my previous MOCKs using the DrafTek's Big Board didn't use the simulator itself but merely selected off their Big Board. It was less cumbersome that way and also allowed me to look at the choices rather than having the computer do that for me, but the supply & demand characteristics of a real draft weren't present.

And now the MOCK. (note: I'll be learning of these choices, for the most part, as you learn of them, too)

#12) - Rey Maualuga (ILB) - [REACH: -6, PRIORITY: 3]

#18) - Evander Hood (DE34) - [REACH: -14, PRIORITY: 2]

#48) - Josh Freeman (QB) - [VALUE: +20. PRIORITY: 4]

#79) - Kevin Barnes (CB) - [VALUE: +9. PRIORITY: 4]

#84) - Rashad Jennings (RB-F) - [VALUE: +1, PRIORITY: 5]

#114) - Roy Miller (DT34) - [REACH: -41, PRIORITY: 3]

#149) - Cameron Morrah (TE) - [VALUE: +1, PRIORITY: 4]

#185) - Johnny Knox (WR-S) - [VALUE: +9, PRIORITY: 4]

#225) - Anthony Parker (OG) - [REACH: -6, PRIORITY: 4]

#235) - Jamarca Sanford (SS) - [REACH: -5, PRIORITY: 3]

Just a few quick comments -- I played with the settings in order to get less redundancy for some positions. For instance, I didn't want both an OG and an OC so I simply eliminated OC. This is hardly what we'll do in the draft but we may take one or the other, but I didn't have that choice in the simulation. I don't find that the priority settings mimic the richness of the actual decision making process so I was attempting to overcompensate for this flaw by eliminating some positions from consideration.

What's noticeable to me but won't be to others is how often player we would have chosen were taken shortly before our pick. And, in some cases, there are players we would have deemed worthy of a reach, but the simulation's Big Board BPA values had them placed too low. We can argue with this, and I can even go back a "grab" these players in the respective round, but I like the discipline that's being imposed.

Finally, what would be very useful for the sake of comparing simulations -- both your own and other member's -- is to record what as priority values you've used. I've shown the priorities next to the picks but they're quite arguable and the record is incomplete (for instance, I skipped WR-F but included WR-S). Priority settings may need to be twitched in order to arrive at desirable MOCKs so the best way of doing this may be try out settings and see which work best, a sort of backwards way of producing the proper priority settings.

I'll save further comments for the comments section.

MOCKS I like - version 2 (April 17)

Colinski — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 02:42:52 -0000

Some of you have already seen this MOCK by Wes Bunting of the National Football Post. I thought I'd draw furher attention to it because it fills our needs quite well, and does so with some players we'd be lucky to find still available. It's not an unrealistic MOCK, by any means, and it's not a perfect draft since there are tradeoffs, which I'll discuss below.

(#12) - Everette Brown - DE/OLB
(#18) - Malcolm Jenkins - CB
(#48) - Fili Moala - DT/DE34
(#79) - Rashad Johnson - S
(#84) - Jonathan Luigs - C

COMMENTS - What's missing? Well, there's no NT, but it's quite possible, and maybe even likely, that both Raji and Brace will be gone when we pick in the 1st and 2nd rounds, so I've already steeled myself to this outcome. Another thing that's missing is ballhandlers. I'd like to see a WR or RB, and that could still happen, and there are some good possibilities in the 4th and 5th round for both these positions.

The way the 1st has looked for the last month or so, it appears that either Maybin or Brown will be available when we make our first pick. And Maybin's phenomenal pro day workouts may have boosted him above Brown in the competition between the 2nd and 3rd best pass rushing hybrids after Orakpo. I think picking a 'rush' backer is justified for us at this point because it's the area of highest* positional impact for the 3-4 defense after NT, and Raji is already gone in this MOCK.

[note: Matt M. says rush backer is the highest area of positional impact for the 3-4, but NT is the hardest to fill, i.e., the position of greatest demand. Let's just say they're both quite important.]

Regarding the Jenkins pick -- most of the quality MOCKs have him going in the mid-teens so it might take a little luck to have him fall to us at #18, but not much. Jenkins clearly slid because of his Combine, and he failed to rehabilitate his stock when he also had a lackluster Pro Day. Even though he may not be the elite CB that justifies a top ten pick he's still a very high quality CB and a very suitable pick in the teens. The CB position has become a very important position in the NFL, and both the positional logic and our particular situation with aging CBs make this a wise choice for the future. It's true that we need help at Safety, too, but as we can see we were very successful in this MOCK at addressing that need later on.

2nd round

Assuming that we fail to land a top NT, our next best (and only) solution for upgrading the DL is DE. Many MOCKs have us taking Tyson Jackson and I both like and dislike that pick. However, since he's gone here, the next best DE34 available at this point is Moala. I wouldn't mind picking Jarron Gilbert but he doesn't even make it out the the 1st round in this MOCK. So, Moala it is, and it's a perfect pick in the logic of positional need. Regarding the argument advocating helping up front on the DL -- while it's true that we'd love to pick a high quality DL early on, there simply aren't enough "high quality DLs" to allow us to do that. We'd actually be lucky to find Moala at this point, given the competition between teams that are in need of players for their 3-4 defenses.

3rd round

Rashad Johnson is a perfect pick for us in many ways. Going in to the year, it appeared that we could find a Safety worthy of a 1st round pick that would end our suffering at that position. As it's worked out, we'll have that chance again next year, but there's a group of Safeties clustered around the 2nd round that are more than adequate for our future needs. The real question is -- will any of them fall to where we could draft him in the 3rd? Lately, it appears that one or more may fall into that range. The reason has less to do with their weaknesses than with the amount of other players who been deemed worthy of a 2nd pick. This crowding may push some of the Safeties down, and Johnson is exactly the type (IMO) that fits the style of defense we'll be using in the future.

I know I'll sound like a broken record here but I really like the idea of shoring up the interior OL in this draft. While other people look for RBs to make the running game go I think of OLs. To cite Mark M. of WalterFootball from his section on positional impact:

You don't draft a running back No. 1 overall, especially in a zone-blocking scheme where effective runners can be found later in the draft.

I love the idea of selecting a high quality RB but I'm loathe to the idea bypassing the chance to fix the OL for years to come. I'm not ready to rest on our laurels and I think that idea smacks of dangerous over-confidence. We've made a brilliant beginning at building a state-of-the-art OL but we're not done yet. I like the idea of picking an OL early on, and I think it's the soundest way of making the running game go. We will find a quality RB in this draft (at least I hope we do), but the value for us and teams in general is to build the OL. And we're lucky, we only need one more good one and we're essentially done, So I hope we pick an OL the caliber of Luigs and build the foundation before we pick our next superstar RB.

Who's Working Out II.

Colinski — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 03:39:06 -0000

My first fanpost on this topic listed a number prospects for whom the Broncos had scheduled visits.

Here's that topic.

Not every prospect made it, as Chris Wells' missed plane flight prevented the Broncos from taking a closer look, but those who did are an interesting lot and they've become even more interesting now that I've done my homework on a few of the lesser known prospects.

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Let me list the original group once again.

OFFENSE

QB
Curtis Painter (Purdue) - 5th-6th Round

RBs
Knowshon Moreno (Georgia) - Early - Mid Round 1
Chris Wells (Ohio State) - Early - Mid Round 1
Donald Brown (Connecticut) - Mid-Late Round 1
Rashad Jennings (Liberty) - Early Round 2

WRs
Mike Thomas (Arizona) - Late Round 2 - Late Round 3, also a dynamic return man
Eron Riley (Duke) - Late Round 3 - Round 6, broad range.
Pat White (West Virginia) - Round 3 - Round 4 (Worked him out as a WR)

TE
Richard Quinn (North Carolina) - Round 6 - Undrafted Free Agent (Badass blocking TE)

OC
Eric Wood (Louisville) - Late Round 1 - Early Round 2

DEFENSE:

DT
BJ Raji (Boston College) - Early Round 1
Roy Miller (Texas) - 5th Round - 7th Round (Pure 2-gap NT)

OLB/DEs
Connor Barwin (Cincinnati) - Early Round 2
Robert Ayers (Tennessee) - Mid-Round 1 - Early Round 2
David Veikune (Hawaii) - Late Round 3 - Early Round 5
Victor Butler (Oregon State) - Round 4 - Round 6
Cody Brown (Connecticut) - Late Round 2 - Round 3

CBs
Malcolm Jenkins (Ohio State) - Early - Mid Round 1
Kevin Barnes (Maryland) - Early Round 3 - Round 4

S
Chip Vaughn (Wake Forest) - Late Round 2 - Round 3

Let me acknowledge CUB once again as the provider of this list.

I've come across a couple other lists, and once again it has some interesting names. LIST

Another listing, HERE, comes from New Era Scouting, and for the sake of convenience I'll put the two lists together, with an asterisk next to the prospects that NES says the Broncos have indicated some interest in.

Here's some of the additions;

RB

LeSean McCoy

CENTER

Antoine Caldwell

*Blake Schlueter

WR

Quan Cosby

OT

Phil Loadholt

DE

Larry English

*Paul Kruger

DT

*Terrrance Knighton

*Evander Hood

*Vance Walker

LB

Clay Matthews

CB

Darius Butler

Alphonso Smith

S

Courtney Greene

David Bruton

Louis Delmas

Patrick Chung

Scott Wright's MOCK (April 14)

Colinski — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 20:59:16 -0000

I've been waiting to see what Wright would come up with; he's one of the better sources when it comes to evaluating players -- since he's a former NFL scout -- and his past predictions (see his archives) show a fairly accurate ability to predict when players will come off the board.

MOCK drafts are not attempts to actually predict the actual order of selection as much as they are a representative sample of what types of choices would be appropriate. Furthermore, a small deviation by one team can create a cascading effect as teams that choose later in the draft alter their choices to take advantage of surprising opportunities. In some cases, players can fall far beyond expectations, which may be because the later teams aren't in need at a particular position (thus rendering BPA logic moot), or because they don't re-order their preferences as an unexpected value becomes available.

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Enough said, here's Wright's MOCK:

#12) - B. J. Raji (NT)

#18) - Robert Ayers (DE)

#48) - Patrick Chung (S)

#79) - D. J. Moore (CB)

#84) - Stephen McGee (QB)

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That's all. We can speculate on what later choices might look like.

I'll save my comments for responses to other's comments.

MOCKS I like

Colinski — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 01:33:52 -0000

There's a profusion of MOCKS out there right now, and I have to admit that not every one of them makes sense, so it's a pleasure to see one that 'makes the grade.'

I won't bother with a long build up here. So, from one of the 'boys from Oconomowoc,' Randall Weida of FFToolbox:

1/ - #12) - Tyson Jackson (DE34)

1/ - #18) - Brian Cushing (OLB34)

2/ - #48) - Ron Brace (DT34)

3/ - #79) - Rashad Johnson (FS)

3/ - #84) - Jonathan Luigs (OC/G)

There's more picks in the actual draft -- of course -- but like many MOCKs it only gives us a few rounds.

I'll respond to comments instead of attempting a lengthy analysis at this point. I will say that I consider this MOCK as nearly ideal in terms of meeting our needs as well as selecting players at appropriate ranges.

What do you think? And why?

MOCK IV - w/ new picks

Colinski — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 00:39:30 -0000

I just had to see what the added picks could bring.

The procedure is the same as in the past; BPA rankings are a dominant consideration but positional need is equally important. Need picks will be explained, and alternate picks will be listed, especially when choices were considered ambiguous.

The Big Board is DrafTek's, and you may disagree with them, therefore it's partly an academic exercise to see what maximum utility would look like.

Disagreements with DT's Big Board are welcome but would be even more welcome if you can explain why your suggested alternate choice is better.

NEEDS:(I'll describe these loosely, input on this area is welcome)

Offense

OG(moderate), OC(moderate), RB(moderate), WR(moderate), TE(low), QB(low)

Defense

DT34(highest), DE34(highest), OLB34(moderate), ILB34(moderate), CB(high), S(high)

#12) - B. J. Raji (NT) ----------------------- REACH: ( + 7)

#18) - Tyson Jackson (L-DE34) -------- REACH: ( - 1 )

#48) - Patrick Chung (SS) ---------------- REACH: ( - 5)

#79) - Derrick Williams (WR-F) --------- REACH: ( - 2)

#84) - Jonathan Luigs (OC/G) ---------- REACH: ( - 1)

#114) - Kevin Barnes (CB) -------------- REACH: ( - 4)

#149) - Jasper Brinkley (ILB34) -------- REACH: ( - 7)

#185) -Tom Brandstater (QB) ---------- REACH: ( - 4)

#225) - Ian Johnson (RB-C) ------------ REACH: ( - 1)

#235) - Ra'Shon Harris (DT/DE34) --- REACH: ( 0 )

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DISCUSSION

1a) - B. J. Raji (NT) is a controversial pick but this was a chance to try a new selection for the first pick. What became apparent when making this pick was the opportunity to consider 'pairs' of picks. In other words, the following pick played a small role in evaluating this pick. There were a number of players who could still be available when the next pick came six spots later -- such as Maualuga (ILB), Moreno (RB), Wells (RB), Cushing (OLB), Mathews (OLB), etc. -- so the opportunity the opportunity to fill a desired position such as LB or RB could arise again later. The feeling was the next pick was well positioned to find a 'falling value' at this point, as well as being able respond if there was a run on a position.

Surprisingly, there was no clear direction for this pick. Numerous alternatives occurred to me. Those names have already been discussed extensively. The dominant consideration was selecting a player who was able to become an immediate starter, along with filling a need. Raji should fall because of his positive drug test but I still consider him to be worth the risk at a lower range.

1b) - Tyson Jackson (DE34). Jackson's pick completed a 2/3rds rebuilding of the defensive line. At this point, the Broncos would have taken the top two defensive lineman in the draft -- a significant accomplishment. His choice was again guided by the principle of choosing a player who could be expected to start immediately or play a significant role as backup on day one. As with the Raji pick, ability to stop the run played a big role in his selection.

Possible Alternates -- Clay Mathews (OLB34) was nearly picked here. His BPA was only one point lower, and I believe he fits the profile of the type of player we'll be looking for. I'd even prefer him to Cushing at this point. Many alternatives occurred to me but none stood out. The only surprise consideration was Laurinaitis, who I've ignored since the news of the impending switch to the 3-4 but struck me as another player in the mold of Mathews, with versatility and pass coverage abilities that might make him surprising useful player despite not being considered a 3-4 type of player.

2) - Patrick Chung (SS). Chung struck me as the type of player they'll want to pursue -- i.e., team oriented and an overacheiver with a high football IQ. I was seeking a theme for this MOCK that would shift the emphasis from BPA and need, and all of the choices are considered solid citizens and good players who make others around them better.

Alternates. I gave strong consideration to Eric Wood (OC) again. I'm anticipating that the extra picks wil allow us to explore picking players at spots that we've previously ignored somewhat, because we now have picks in a different range, and because we can meet still meet our need though other picks and our strategy is less forced. Moore (SS), Jairus Byrd (CB/S) and Marcus Freeman (LB) were considered. The most notable thing about this pick is the group of desirable choices the go immediately before it. There could be a tremendous opportunity to select a falling value (e.g. Sintim (OLB), Delmas (FS), Sean Smith (CB/S), etc.).

3a) - Derrick Williams (WR). Williams was selected again despite my wanting to try to take this draft in a new direction and explore other possible picks. Speed, playmaking & KR ability and the chance to finally take someone on the offensive side made him impossible to ignore.

Alternates. Coye Francies (CB) and Sherrod Martin (FS/CB) were strongly considered. The proximity of the next pick (five picks later) was an issue again. Sidbury (OLB34) and Ellerbe (ILB) were considered among many others. The possibility of falling values -- Kruger (DE), Victor Harris (CB), etc., could be an issue in the actual draft.

3b) - Jonathan Luigs (OC/OG). I chose an OC again I think he'd fit well with the emerging theme. I would be very happy if we're able to get any of the top group of Centers (Mack, Unger, Wood or Luigs), a most of them are ZB appropriate and should be able to play guard. I think picking an OL by this point would be very wise, but there's value later, too.

Alternates. No new possibilities. Rhett Bomar (QB) could be a possibility, along with some mentioned for the last pick.

4) - Kevin Barnes (CB). I bypassed some others, such as Captain Munnerlyn (CB), Morgan Trent (CB), because I thought Barnes was the best despite the ranking. Read this to see why. It's a deep CB crop and I wanted to add at a reasonably high round. This pick was very fortunate but I don't know if we can get that lucky in the real draft. The standard of immediate starterg/significant backup was an important criterion for this draft but I didn't expect to find starter quality players after the 3rd round as a rule. Barnes is an exception to that rule.

Alternates. McKillop (ILB) and Frantz Joseph (ILB) were considered because ILB had not been addressed yet.

5) - Jasper Brinkley (ILB). Selecting Brinkley once again was both necessary and desirable. I've de-emphasized LB in some of the recent drafts, but the real Bronco draft might take a different course considering the Cushing, Mathews and Maualuga are all quite possible picks. The ILB position is actually so shallow that the fact that they're not coming up more is because there just aren't many of them. However, all of my mocks have been fairly successful at finding them so we should be able to fill the position if we target it.

Alternates. Terrance Taylor (NT) was available if NT was still not filled. John Parker Wilson (QB) could be an interesting choice. Jason Phillips (ILB) could be a fall back choice if Brinkley was unavailable.

6) - Tom Brandstater (QB). I thought Brandstater was an interesting possibility even though I'm not overly concerned about filling the QB position. There was no clear choice at this point and the most intriguing possibilities were at QB, such as Reilly and Cantwell.

Alternates. If Sammie Lee Stillman had fell one spot I could have taken him. TE was still under consideration and I think there's good value around this range but none were particularly close this time. The strongest alternative was Kevin Ellison (SS), who has everything we would want except speed (4.7-40yd.). I think we should consider him though.

7a) - Ian Johnson (RB-C). I didn't find many RBs within range throughout this MOCK. This is mostly the luck of the draw. I'd be happy to see them take Johnson in this range in the real draft because of all the qualities he offers. He probably won't make the transition to the next level but he's the kind of guy we want on our team, and I imagine he'd find a way to contribute at whatever he's asked to do -- a good team player.

Alternates. Roy Miller (NT), Everette Pedescleaux (DE34) and Antonio Appleby (ILB) are nearby and make this a choice that could be used on a number of needs. I could see changing this pick to shore up many other areas but I choose Johnson because I'd yet to select a RB.

7b) - Ra'shon Harris (DE34). I was happy to find a DE34 left because I wanted to add one more. I just looked up Harris again recently and he's been rising.

Alternates. Everyone that's left in the draft. I can see a great number of possibilities although none stand out. The strongest possibilities are probably the speedy WRs nearby -- Tiquan Underwood or Deon Butler.

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I'll skip the comments section for now and edit later.