So I'm watching The Simpsons and I see this: 

and I think my, the show's writers worked awfully fast to come up with a parody of the Music City Bowl ending. Also, I fully believe "I only took this job because I was cold and needed a shirt" is exactly how the MCB refs were chosen. 

Ok, I don't believe either of those things, but saying them makes me feel better, so there.

 Mr. Hamilton! Nice to meet you! I'm a lifelong Vol fan and UT alum. Listen, i think you've been doing a terrific job, but there's one thing that's bothering me...

 Nice to meet you. It's always great to get out in front of our fans. What's on your mind?

 Well, it's this Buffalo thing...

 You mean the way the white man hunted buffalo almost to extinction just to drive the Native Americans off the Great Plains? I agree, it's a travesty often overlooked in American History.

 Yeah, no. I mean the way you dropped an incredible home-and-home series with UNC to play a team like Buffalo

 Well, I have heard a lot about that. Be assured that I will take your concerns into consideration, and that every move we make is for the good of the program. (Sound of zipper, followed by splashing.)

 Um, Mike, are you, uh, going, on my leg?

 What? No, of course not.

 Then why is my leg wet?

  It's raining.

No it's not, Mike. You just went on my leg and told me it was raining. I mean, look at my khakis.

  You know, Tennessee teams in the early 40s wore khaki due to colorful dyes being used for the war effort.

 No Mike. Didn't know that. But there's still the issue of my leg being wet.

  No, your leg is dry. Know what else is dry? Seats in the Tennessee Terrace. Can I interest you...

 No, Mike. I've got to go find a clean pair of...

  A pair of seaons tickets can be had for face value plus a $100 donation to the Tennessee Fund  ...

 But if you want parking, it'll be $5000.

  Thanks for your time, Mike. Good luck this year. Go be seen around Bruce. A lot.

In the spirit of IS THAT ALL YEW GOT??, I'm hoping for the game Saturday to go a little like the boxing scene in Cool Hand Luke (at a minimum, that is--I'm still holding out hope for an upset). Really there are some parallels between Paul Newman's character and the Vols' coach: Luke got himself thrown in jail for destroying municipal property--cutting the heads off parking meters. Kiffin gained status as public enemy #1 for a series of no less misunderstood albeit crazy stunts himself; even (dare I say) a failure to communicate.

Of course in the end, Luke wins--using skill to outsmart his competitors, even when he has nothing, because sometimes nothing can be a real cool hand. Well, actually, in the end Luke is shot in the dark, alone in a church window. Still, that's not until after he's made a name for himself--and really that's not much different than what happened to Majors and Fulmer anyway. But I digress. The important thing is, Vols, no matter how many times you get knocked down this weekend, don't listen to those voices telling you to stay down. Look 'em in the eye and say "you'll have to kill me."

And then we gone eat fifty egg.

So it's the dog days, and you've got to get your college football wherever you can, but when I read a line like

The fact that Vanderbilt finished with seven wins is impressive enough, but that it did so in the SEC makes it all the more remarkable.

in what would otherwise be a pretty good preview piece on the NYT's The Quad blog, I gotta call foul. Seven wins by Vandy standards is pretty remarkable, but that includes just a 4-4 record against the SEC, with losses against Mississippi St. and one of the worst Tennessee teams in the last quarter century*. Let's not forget the Dores also lost to Wake and Duke, and let's not forget that against the 3 worst UT teams of the last 20 years or so Vandy is only 1-2, and let's shelve statements like

Now that the Commodores have removed the stigma of 25 straight losing seasons, the program can begin the process of becoming annual bowl participants, a step that starts in 2009.

because there's more than "stigma" at play here. I've long believed that like water,  teams have a natural level. Tennessee's natural level is neither the team that lost to Wyoming last year nor 1998's dream season... it's probably closer to what we saw in 2001 or 2007 (but hopefully with more SECCG wins). Vandy's center is closer to "pesky competitor" than "perennial bowl contender."

A recent Braves and Birds post hints at the same idea, saying that teams rise and fall from the status of "elite." I do agree that teams can change their natural level (see over the last couple of decades the fall of Notre Dame and the rise of Florida from mediocre to omgiwishurbanmyerwouldfalldownahole), but I also think Vandy has miles to go and some probably insurmountable steps ahead of them to change theirs. 

*Yes I see the irony in baggin on Vandy's season when it was more successful than UT's; I'm talking about results over time. 

Recently Senator Blutarsky at Get the Picture and Brian at MGoBlog have said that they "don't get" what Lane Kiffin is doing... or maybe, more accurately, they don't get why Vol fans haven't collectively bound and gagged Kiffin and shoved him in the luggage compartment of the next Greyhound bound for Tacoma. I'll quote from the posts that I'm talking about below, but first let me mention that they bother me because they raise legitimate doubts about what in the world Kiffin is actually doing. Also because they are written by bloggers I respect, rather than the drive-by criticism we see coming from the MSM and faux bloggers yesi'mlookingatyouchrislow. 

First, Get the Picture asked

What is it about the Tennessee program that requires its head coach to behave in the way that Kiffin has in order to succeed? Or is this simply an exercise in after the fact justification?

I mean, is this really what Mike Hamilton had in mind when he made the hire?...

If he wins (games, not recruiting rankings), no doubt Vol fans will be thrilled, but what will they be left with if he doesn't grab a few titles?...

If this is such a great approach to resurrecting a national powerhouse, how come the first guy to think of it is a 33-year old whose prior stop as a head coach was a miserable failure?

I'll address a couple of those points in a sec, but first, Brian responded to the final question by saying

True cleverness-see OBC-is apparent. Even if this supposed gambit works in the short run, in the long run Tennessee is going to be seriously hampered by their head coach's lack of intelligence. When the biggest accomplishment you can point to is locking down your hot wife, you have issues.

My retort is that Spurrier's cleverness is/was only apparent because he won games, something Kiffin hasn't had a chance to do yet. A comparison to the OBC is apt only because both Spurrier and Kiffin have a knack for spouting off. Though, if you notice, Spurrier only does so after the fact; I can't think of a single time Spurrier has run his mouth before putting a beatdown on someone, and "you can't spell Citrus..." only has punch if you're going to New Orleans on the regular. So, yeah, the preemptive bravado coming from Kiffin is something new. Does it mean Kiffin is less intelligent, less clever than Spurrier and others? Maybe, but I'm not sure that conclusion can be drawn yet, just as I can't claim Kiffin as a genius, either. At this point I believe the most that can be said is Kiffin shows extreme lack of judgement at worst and gross audacity at best, and we'll have to see how it all works out in a few years. 

As to how it will all work out, of course I, like you, have no idea. Kiffin's recruiting machine seems to give Tennessee the chance to succeed but it's no guarantee. Kiffin could sabotage the whole thing with his tomfoolery, and if he does, what we'll be left with (to answer GtP's question) is a few dismal records in the media guide and another coaching search, probably preceded by a new athletic director. We've seen several of our SEC brethren go through the same and live, so that too shall pass if the need arises. 

To answer another of GtP's questions: yes, this is what Mike Hamilton expected when he hired Kiffin. The specifics of Pahokee or the spate of secondary infractions, no. But to the extent that Kiffin is pretty much the polar oppisite of Fulmer, I think this is exactly what Hamilton wanted. 

Here's the thing: I have no idea if Kiffin will succeed or fail, and that's what makes it fun. Tennessee football hasn't been particularly fun in the past several years. I don't mean the actual games, those are always fun, but the general aura around Vol football had been kind of a downer of late: the forecast for what turned out to be the final Fulmer years was mostly cloudy with a chance of Atlanta. And there's something comforting in meeting expectations, no matter how mediocre those expectations are. But what we're seeing now is that the unknown is exciting, maybe a little scary, possibly even embarrassing at times, but fun. 

So you don't "get" what's going on in Knoxville? I don't either necessarily, and I don't really feel the need to. I'm just watching, with more interest than any other time in recent years, and waiting for what's next.

Long time, no see, y'all...

Over at Gerogia Sports Blog, Paul Westerdawg has an interview with former UGa All-American o-lineman Matt Stinchcomb that would be of absolutely no interest to a Tennessee fan if not for the following part of the Q&A:

PWD: What was the worst or toughest place to play?
MS: Tennessee is a really tough place to play as an opponent. I think fans in general don't realize the impact they have on the game, but the fans in Knoxville know their role. Everything at Neyland is enclosed, and you feel like you're inside a tin can. The crowd noise is like standing next to the starting line at a drag race...for four hours. It's painfully, oppressively loud. The only place I played as loud as Neyland Stadium was the Metrodome in Minnesota, and that place has a roof to keep the sound in.

Now if we could just get the whole stadium to make noise... oh, and that double-wave thingy that Joel was talking about, that would be sweet.

With spring practice starting next week, I thought it would be interesting to look at Tennessee's roster for the 2008 season, formated here by class and position. I think this is pretty accurate, though the projected starters are totally a guess right now. That's especially so at defensive back, where I'd only bet on three things: Eric Berry, Brent Vinson, and Eric Berry.

TENNESSEE FOOTBALL DEPTH BY CLASS 2008
Position	Incoming (c/o 2012)	Freshmen (c/o 2012)	Sophomores (c/o 2011)	Juniors (c/o 2010)	Seniors (c/o 2009)
QB	C. Kelly	BJ. Coleman	N. Stephens	J. Crompton
RB	T. Poole B. Bartholomew	D. Vareen J. Hawkins	L. Creer	M. Hardesty	A. Foster
WR	EJ. Abrams-Ward R. Wilkes S. Fowlkes	A. Paige T. Campbell T. Maples	D. Moore G. Jones	A. Rogers Q. Hancock	L. Taylor J. Briscoe K. O'Neal
TE	A. Douglas		L. Stocker K. Cooper	J. Cottam
OL	P. Bailey D. Thomas C. Anderson	D. Sawtelle W. Brimfield	R. Johnson	J. McNeil C. Scott J. McClendon V. Richard	R. Foster A. Parker
DT	M. Hughes	D. Langley C. Pope	V. Thomas	D. Williams C. Nelson	D. Bolden W. Fisher
DE	W. Bohannon		B. Martin C. Walker	W. Brown G. Williams	R. Ayers
LB	M. Walls A. Johnson H. Lathers	C. Donald	L. Thompson S. Fraizer N. Reveiz	R. McCoy	E. Wilson N. McKenzie A. Myers-White
DB	S. Raines P. Waggner	A. Evans A. Anderson CJ. Fleming	E. Berry B. Vinson D. Rogan	M. Johnson R. Kemp	D. Willingham A. Gaines
P/K			D. Lincolin C. Cuningham		B. Colquitt
returning starters in bold, projected starters in italics

Two things I take from this:

1. I really like our offense. A lot. The only two things that can slow this offense are total ineptness at QB or some doofus move by Clawson that involves Kenny O'Neal under center. Oh, and o-line injuries. They could hurt.
2. Want to gaze straight into the cold, deep eyes of the reaper? Cover up the junior and senior columns and glance at the offensive and defensive lines, if you dare. In two years we're guaranteed to be relying on linemen that are either young or terrible, or both.

How about y'all? See anything of note? Oh, and I'm sure the chart as I've presented it is rife with incorrectness. Please shout out any mistakes you catch.

Two items came across my feed reader yesterday that nearly sent me into full Fisk mode again, both of them being more cheap shots and undue criticism of Phil Fulmer. After some consideration I've decided that neither Ron Higgin's latest salvo in his personal war against The Papa, nor this rambling and indirect narrative from Roy Exum are worthy of much deconstruction other than to say "they're here, they're dumb, get used to it."

But I have a hard time resisting the low-hanging fruit, so I will say that of Exum's column, outside of the fact that it's hard to tell whether he's criticizing or supporting Fulmer, he feels it necessary to take shots at blogs for creating an atmosphere in which coaches receive more criticism than ever before. He even finds a way to equate blogs with the KKK. We're straight evil, y'all.

If you're not familiar with Roy Exum, he and his family are former newspaper magnates in Chattanooga. I understand the resentment that many old newspaper types have for bloggers... but because I understand doesn't mean they're right. It's a misunderstanding between what the old-school journalist thinks a blog is and what a blog really is. Too often, the newspaper folks think blogs are trying to replace them; most often though, we're not.

Look at the blogs nominated or winning the College Football Blogger Awards. For the most part, they're not trying to practice journalism. But that's the misconception, that bloggers are amateur journalists. If bloggers are amateur anything, it's along the lines of amateur critics. More than that, though, blogs are about continuing a discussion among fans that used to be limited to the folks immediately around you in coffee shops, barber chairs, and dive bars; but can now be carried on around the world. BTW, that conversation usually starts in the local paper. So when an old newspaper guy like Exum starts by calling out "faceless blogs" and continues

...it's even more difficult to understand. It's also hard to understand how I've now seen at least three instances of "print media" giving the wrong internet address credit for creating and maintaining the Fulmer Cup; you'd think Real Journalists would do a little fact checking. Also interesting is that Exum's column is posted on Chattanoogan.com, which last time I checked, resides on teh intranets that Exum hates so much. Irony, word.

So, I'm probably not saying anything that hasn't been said before, but maybe needs to be said more often: those of us who "get" blogs and how blogging brings fans together in new and clever ways should be thankful that we have the open mindedness or pure brain capacity or whatever it is that allows us to enjoy new media without thinking that the heat death of the universe will be caused by digital ink being spilled.

And I figure the two-day Stroking of Blogger Egofest is as good a time as any to say it... so there it is.

Ain't no Fisking like a Rocky Top Fisking 'cause a Rocky Top Fisking don't stop!

On Monday, CBS Sportsline's Mike Freeman wrote an article titled "Cuffs click, cell doors slam shut and Fulmer skates by," which outright calls Fulmer the kingpin of the "rottenest, most dastardly [program] ever... an historic abomination."

I can't deny we've had some problems on Rocky Top, I've shared my disappointment over Gerald Jones' pot charge and Joel's voiced his with Britton Colquitt's DUI. Still, I'd characterize these incidents more as "young people doing stupid things" (really stupid things in the case of DUI) more than rotten or dastardly. And "historic abomination?" Bit strong, yes?

For my part, the egregious nature of Freeman's article will not stand. Not because it trots out opinion dressed as fact (which it does) or because it comes to the party way late (calling out Fulmer for basically the same stuff Adams did last week, and making charges that Fulmer has already defended himself against before Freeman ever sat down to drivel out this tripe). The point of the article was at least in part to be so incendiary that it can't be ignored. And it is. In fact, that's the only thing Freeman did right.

Ok, maybe that's not fair, Freeman does demonstrate ability to use a thesaurus, at different points characterizing the behavior of Tennessee players as "scrofulous ruthlessness" and "scabrous acts." I fully plan on using "scrofulous" at my earliest opportunity.

However, the biggest error made by Freeman is in trying to be relevant and funny... and failing miserably in both. Want bad pop culture references and weak, played-out jokes? Freeman's got 'em:

For the record, the Palpatine line wouldn't have been so bad, but Freeman went to it twice, shredding it's already paper-thin relevance. We continue... Over the weekend, Darren McFadden ran a 4.27 at the NFL Combine. Freeman's article published Monday. The most current fast-guy he could come up with was Deion Sanders? Has this Freeman watched sports in the last ten years? (or, like, the news? or a movie?) Guess not! Nice fat joke, too. I thought "journalists" were supposed to be above that sort of thing? But we haven't seen the masterstroke yet: He went OJ on us! Seriously, Holmes... OJ? Weaksauce.

Look, if you want to make fun of the legal problems Tennessee has had, go ahead -- lord knows we've earned it. Just, if you're going to do it, make it funnier than the Fulmer Cup (good luck). At least what Orson concocted objectively points out what we already know: that lots of programs have lots of kids doing things they shouldn't do.

But to straight-faced state that what's happening in Knoxville is worse than what's happening at many other schools, or what's happened in the past, or that it's being ignored at best and orchestrated at worst by the head coach (a man I'd wager Freeman hasn't talked to for five minutes in his life) is utter folly. And to regurgitate and hyperbolate police blotter into The Worst Thing That Ever Happened is borderline lazy.

The last clue that this Freeman cat is disconnected from anything resembling current reality is one of his closing lines:

Simple: because they know what's happening at their school is no different that what's happening at every other school. And I'm not talking about athletes getting in trouble. Fightin', smokin', and drankin' are all pretty common -- and relatively accepted -- on college campuses in the student body at large. Freeman wants the NCAA to step in and try to control the behavior of student-athletes, but what about the student-students? Should they skate on "scrofulous ruthlessness" and "scabrous acts" because they can't clock a decent 40 time?

What Freeman really wants here, I suppose, is a change in the culture of college campuses. A noble request to be sure, but one that is both unlikely and difficult to construct a reasonable argument for. So instead, he takes the easy and highly clickable route of taking potshots at Fulmer. Unoriginal, unfunny, lazy potshots.

Two words, Freeman: Epic fail.

Update [2008-2-26 20:22:15 by CornFromAJar]: Turns out SMQ wrote this first and wrote it better; read it here. Orson also had his say. Keep it coming, any hatchet thrown at Freeman shall not be thrown in vain.

Oooh, logo. Hey, it only took a little more than a month to do another one of these; that's progress, baby!

Inane Basketball Commentary

In the first two weeks of conference play, Tennessee has seen and beaten the two teams most likely to challenge them for SEC supremacy (Ole Miss and Vandy). They've done it without Chris Lofton looking like the Discombobulator he was last year. They've done it while breaking in new faces in new places. They've done without chemistry being a deterrent, despite going 9 or 10 deep and rotating lineups. In fact, chemistry seems to be great with this bunch -- perhaps because this team plays so fast, everybody gets their touches? But that's the good news. The bad news, if you want to look for some, is that SEC play is a long road. What if the chemistry sours? What if egos start popping up? What will happen when this team goes to Rupp and Memorial and the O-Dome and the Hump? There are a lot of challenges ahead of this squad, and how they hold together through those challenges over the next few weeks will tell a lot about them. As for right now, I'm still enjoying Thursday's beatdown of Vanderbilt and looking forward to Saturday's game against Ohio State, in part because I'm going (it will be my only trip to Thompson-Boling this year) and in part because I want avengement for last year's losses to the Bucks. For anybody lucky enough to have forgotten, last March's loss to Ohio State ended something like this: And even though this isn't the Greg Oden-Mike Conley version of tOSU, maybe the chance to see scarlet and gray will help these guys Remember the Alomodome.

Prediction vs. Reality

Measuring how the Vols have fared in the last five games against how some really smart computers (Sagarin, Pomeroy) thought they'd do, and what the really smart computers think about the next five. Chartage: Overachiving. mostly, and predicted wins in the next five games (at this point, the only team Tennessee won't be favored against is Memphis). Good things, no?

Bruce Pearl's Guide to Style

With Thursday's beatdown of Vandy, Bruce Pearl is now 6-3 in the Orange Blazer. Yes, coach, that's six wins.

Discombobulation Watch and Fancy New Blender

We've been waiting all year for a Discombobulatory performance from Chris Lofton, and although he hasn't reached that level yet this season, we do have another nickname torch that has been passed on. During Thursday night's beatdown of Vandy (I just like typing that), ESPN's Jimmy Dykes labeled Tyler Smith as Tennessee's "blender" as the one who shakes things up and makes it come out smooth -- the same title he gave to Dane Bradshaw a year ago. There were many other comparisons between Bradshaw and Tyler throughout the game, and I can see it, though T. Smith is way more talented (and I don't mean that as a slight on Dane). So, yeah, from now on, Tyler Smith is our fancy new orange blender, like the one pictured at right. BTW, I totally want one of those.

Miscellany...

If you're a fan of the circus, you may want to check out the post-beatdown varying levels of dismay over at Vanderbilt Sports Line, I'm pretty sure all the stages of grief are in the comments there ... The BruceBall Blog points out UT's defensive efficiency, including how the Vols held the SEC's second-highest scoring team to just 60 points ... tOSU previews at The O-Zone and College Hoops Net, also use this Google search link for more as the game approaches ... last but not least, Go Vols!

There is scuttlebutt out there that former Michigan offensive coordinator Mike DeBord will be interviewing with Fulmer for the same post at Tennessee. My first reaction is "yikes!", because this guy was pretty roundly hated by Michigan fans while he was in Ann Arbor. For example, look no farther than Brian's sentiments from when DeBord was hired to be Michigan's OC for the second time:

And more of Brian's thoughts, from mid-2007 when it was obvious what was wrong with the Michigan program:

In  between there are few kind words for DeBord that I can find (though there are references to DeBord as "Capitan Failure" and a little-used but telling post tag "loldebord") but you can look for yourself here.  I think it's safe to say that Brian's pretty well on the pulse of Michigan football. So while getting a former Michigan coordinator might be a big deal to some, any news that DeBord has done anything but interview with UT will be met with a roll of the eyes from yours truly, FWIW.

However, there are a couple of good points about a potential DeBord hire if it comes to that -- and at this point we don't even know if he has or is going to interview for sure -- but Michigan football looks a lot like Tennessee football, so there would probably be a natural comfort level.  DeBord was in charge of M's special teams for a couple of years before his second stint as OC, and I'd love to see Fulmer hire someone to coordinate special teams full-time (though I'm doubtful anyone would go from offensive coordinator at a major school to special-teams coordinator at another major school without seeing it as a major demotion).

Another thing, DeBord would potentially bring QB coach Scot Loeffler with him, a guy who is a top recruiter and by all accounts a very good position coach who should be a coordinator himself one day. There are pretty strong rumors that VHT and Michigan's part-time starting QB in 2007 Ryan Mallett will follow Loeffler wherever he ends up. Are gaining Mallett and Loeffler worth putting up with DeBord? Maybe, but from what I've read I'd rather have Richmond's Dave Clawson, who we know has interviewed.

Go Vols

Amid all the speculation of what Fulmer may do about finding a new offensive coordinator, here's something he will, in fact, do: interview Clemson OC Rob Spence. So, who is this guy?

Well, judging by his picture, he's not Trooper Taylor. GVX says...

Sounds pretty good, and Brent Hubbs (who broke the story[$]) says Spence is "highly respected in the coaching world."

So all that sounds good, but what does the guy's offense look like? FWIW, here's a quick Clemson highlight reel:

And here's two charts, one detailing what Spence's offenses have done while he's been an offensive coordinator, the second what Tennessee's offense has done in the same time span:

The strength of schedule is thrown in there to see what kind of competition the guy has faced, though to be fair it's not really a measure of the kind of defenses his teams have gone up against. Also, the stats at Toledo should probably be compared to the MAC, because the Rockets aren't really competing on a national scale (but they did have some great offenses while Spence was there... against crappy competition. Hmm.)

Other things to consider: what other coaches will this guy bring with him? What's his track record on recruiting? What does he think about orange pants?

Is this an interview that interests y'all as Vol fans? And is anybody as surprised as I am that Fulmer went outside the UT family for his first interview?

The 2008 Recruiting Board has been updated, sorta. The board went straight to the bottom of my blogging priorities after the Florida game, when I was convinced Tennessee would be looking for a new head coach in December, rendering any recruiting done by the current coaches pretty much moot (my bad). Even in late November I wasn't sure Phil & Co. were going to be around, and now that "& Co." is in flux, I'm not sure how much to read into the current recruiting landscape.

I do know that Tennessee isn't likely to get a quarterback -- this after having a shot at the nation's #1 QB -- though that could change depending on who the new coordinator is. Actually, a lot will change depending on who the new coordinator is, especially if it is someone from outside the family.

So what has been done in this update:

• Players who have dropped UT or committed elsewhere have been dropped from the board
• Players who have committed since the last update have been added or identified as commits, though new additions have no extra info yet.

In other words, there's no new news, mostly just some maintenance. A meatier update hopefully coming in the not-too distant future, along with some much overdue recruiting woo!s.

Go Vols

The latest of a series of good intentions, Jumping Through Hoops is intended to be a regular feature that looks at various aspects of Tennessee basketball. I say intended because I've started other projects around here that were supposed to be regular features, only to see them gathering dust over in some corner of cyberspace (note to self: update recruiting board).

But this one I plan on sticking with. No, really.

Prediction vs. Reality

Our first stop is a look at what Tennessee should have done against past opponents and what they should do against future ones. Below is a chart of what the Sagarin ratings (dark blue line) say Tennessee's margin of victory (or defeat, in a couple of cases) should have been against the first nine opponents. The orange line is how they actually fared (the huge spike up is the 59-point win against Lil' Middle). Problematic: the Sagarin numbers are applied retroactively, and Sagarin says his ratings are predictive of future games, so I'm not using them here 100% properly. I will be tracking the numbers ahead of time from now on, so they should be more accurate. You'll see that after the orange line ends, the Sagarin line continues. This is the current Sagarin prediction for the rest of the month. Another line also picks up, this is prediction for the remaining December games based on Ken Pomeroy's ratings system. I don't have the numbers for Pomeroy's early-season ratings, I suppose I could go back and figure them retroactively like with the Sagarin numbers, but Pomeroy requires more math to do that and I ain't that smart. Anyway, on with the chartage: The good news is that, outside of the awful showing against Texas, Tennessee has mostly performed above prediction (five of eight games). The bad news is that they're kind of all over the place, making the Vols look unsurprisingly inconsistent. Pomeroy even has a statistic for consistency (dude has a stat for everything), which he describes: Consistency is basically the standard deviation of scoring difference by game for a team. Again, it's not included in the ratings calculation. It can be an aid in determining which teams are overrated by my system. Highly rated teams that are inconsistent tend to look beatable more often. It shouldn't be a shock to anybody who's been following the Vols so far, but Tennessee's consistency rank is #334 (that's out of 341 total teams; UT's overall ranking in Pomeroy's system is 28). More bad news: both Sagarin and Pomeroy have the Vols as underdogs in December's final two games against Xavier and Gonzaga. Plus, Saturday night's opponent, Western Kentucky, is pretty good, too (the Hilltoppers have beaten Michigan and Nebraska and lost by three to Gonzaga).

Bruce Pearl's Guide to Style

I have long felt that Tennessee's success on the court is directly, um... tied to Bruce Pearl's neckwear. Evidence? In three of UT's better showings this year (below, from left to right, Temple, NC A&T, and UL-Laf), Bruce wore predominantly orange ties: But against Prairie View, Pearl wore this: The tie! It's barely orange at all! C'mon coach, you're killing us!

Discombobulation Watch:

A year ago, Joel and I (mostly Joel) dubbed Chris Lofton the Discombobulator for his tendency to have a big game in big games. Lofton has yet to discombobulate anybody yet this year, obvs, but it will happen. While we wait, more charts! Woo visual representation! That 17 points and seven rebounds against MTSU is a near-discombobulatory performance, but considering the opponent, meh. We'll wait.

Miscellany...

Tennessee recently signed a home-and-home basketball deal with Kansas, with the first game to come next December. I have a lot of family from Kansas, so I've always followed the Jayhawks and consider them my "other" team. It's never been a problem because UT and KU never play each other in anything. However, for Tennessee to go somplace like Phog Allen Fieldhouse and beat Kansas would be much bigger than vice-versa, so I'll have no trouble singing Rocky Top over chanting Rock Chalk Jayhawk when the two meet ... Bruce is working ion the team's toughness, and the players reportedly like it ... UT is still hot on the trail ($) of Rivals #9 prospect Scotty Hopson, who did not sign with Mississippi State in the early signing period despite being committed to the Bulldogs ... Also check out the BruceBall Blog, a basketball-centric blog devoted to UT. They do good work, and they're also devoted to the Pomeroy statistical stuff ... last but not least, Go Vols!

Crap, man, the season's over. Oh sure, the bowl games, and we're all fired up about that Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl... seriously, is that that much of a competitive market for helicopters out there that the good people at Bell thought sponsoring a third-tier bowl game would drive business their way?

Anywho, the final regular-season BlogPoll Ballot:

Rank	Team
1	Oklahoma
2	LSU
3	Ohio State
4	Missouri
5	Virginia Tech
6	Southern Cal
7	Kansas
8	Arizona State
9	Georgia
10	Florida
11	Boston College
12	West Virginia
13	Illinois
14	Tennessee
15	Hawaii
16	Clemson
17	Connecticut
18	Wake Forest
19	South Florida
20	Brigham Young
21	Texas
22	Kentucky
23	Wisconsin
24	Oregon
25	Auburn

Dropped Out: Boise State (#13), Cincinnati (#22), Virginia (#23).

I suppose the biggest thing there is that I really like Oklahoma. I realize putting the Sooners in a MNC game against LSU gives you two 2-loss teams going for the title, but I like Oklahoma's wins over a pretty good Mizzou better than anything tOSU did, and OKU's losses be darned.

Any other discrepancies can be blamed, as usual, on the difference between what Joel thinks and what I think (the delta thing is all out of whack, I guess due to the server problems Brian had last week).

Thoughts? Ramblings? Pitchforks?

Not apropos of the following post, but I feel the need to mention: I absolutely loved the orange pants Saturday. not for every game, mind you, but as a change-up now and then. It was the perfect time for them, and I hope Phil doesn't get so superstitious as to leave them in the closet for another eight years just because we lost. Go Vols.

-----------------------------------

On Sunday, if you didn't catch it, SMQ had the following take on the SEC Championship and Erik Ainge's performance, after explaining how surprisingly well the defense played and posting an ugly, ugly YouTube of Ainge's pick-six:

I don't know, there's a lot in there I agree with... but it still doesn't ring entirely ture. I do think that, right or wrong, Ainge's legacy will in fact be the underhanded Throw of Death in Baton Rouge and the two picks in this game. It's totally unfair to blame the SECCG loss on Ainge solely... but those were two really bad throws at the worst possible time of the game. I'm afraid that's what people will remember years from now, not the comeback against Florida in '04 or the turnaround against Alabama in '06; or the seven touchdowns against Kentucky or the wins against Georgia... so on and so forth.

I don't buy that Ainge "never really got much better." I think most of us would agree that the 2006/2007 vintage of Ainge was much improved over what we saw in '05. Add that this year, he was limited by injury and a receiving corps that, while game, will not be remembered alongside the best in UT history. He did what he could with what he had, and I'm not sure it's fair to expect much more than that.

But my mind keeps going back to those were two really bad throws. Why Ainge regressed to that state in this game we'll never know, just like we'll never know why Bill Buckner didn't keep his glove down against the Mets in '86 or why Chris Webber called timeout when he didn't have any. Sometimes these things happen at the worst possible time, even to really good players.

Overall, I think Ainge's career is sort of like the 2007 season: sometimes frustrating, sometimes brilliant, in some ways much more than what was expected at the outset, and still somehow disappointing in light of the glimpses of promise that often shone through. In the end though, it was pretty dang entertaining, and that's why I love Tennessee football and guys like Ainge -- it's the best form of entertainment I can possibly imagine.

Go Vols.

We might be out of luck, folks. Literally. I've spent the last few weeks in this space being purposefully negative about the Vols, just for good luck. It wasn't too hard at first, the idea of losses to Vandy or Kentucky and the memories of horrible play at Florida and Alabama made pessimism fairly easy.

But not this week. I love this team. I'm thrilled that we're playing for a championship. And although I'll be horribly disappointed if we lose, and I'll surely find something to complain about, for now I'm just anxious and looking forward to Saturday.

Still, I feel a duty to say something bad about UT, so here goes:

1. We don't know how to play a full game
2. "Bad Erik" always shows up against LSU
3. Les Miles is the smartest coach evah

There you go. It's not much, but it's the best worst I can muster right now.

Geaux Vols!

I know that last week's poor-mouthing of the Vols seemed a little trumped-up. And maybe it was, it was hard to be negative coming off a game in which Tennessee ended Darren McFadden's Heisman campaign, possibly ended Houston Nutt's coaching career at Arkansas, and definitely bolstered our own chances of playing for the SEC Championship.

But coming off of last week's game, the negative vibes flow a little easier. Am I alone in thinking Fulmer's career was hanging on that last Vandy field goal attempt? Think about it, if that kick goes in, Tennessee's out of the SEC hunt, has lost to Vandy twice in three years, the second one coming in a year where we also got blown out by Florida and Bama. I'm not sure the revered General himself could withstand those circumstances.

Instead, though, the kick was missed, and here the Vols stand, 60 minutes from Atlanta and a stunning turnaround that nobody (almost nobody) saw coming. It's silly, but I'm just superstitious enough to believe that I have to write something negative again, just to keep the roll going. And since we're in the holiday season, it's time for a Festivus celebration, starting with the Airing of Grievances:

1. Can we cover a freaking kick, please? Tennessee had done everything right in the fourth quarter against Vandy, including capping off a crucial 16-point comeback with only minutes remaining in the game. And then near horror, allowing a 55-yard kickoff return to put Vandy dangerously close to chip-shot field goal range. Of course it all turned out OK, but raise your hand if you weren't thinking "oh, god, not this again"... yeah, that's what I thought. It would be one thing if poor kick coverage was an isolated incident, but it happens time and time again, and has been for years now. And we keep hearing the coaching staff say "we work like heck on that in practice," yet again we fans are left banging our heads against the nearest wall. I know that SOP says kitten pictures are reserved for losses, but I just have to say:

2. Defensively, could we please tackle somebody? I don't mean force someone out of bounds, and I don't mean grabbing jersey and slinging them down, and I don't mean launching yourself at somebody like a projectile, and i don't mean falling down in front of them and hoping they trip. I mean good, old-fashioned, head on the ball, shoot your arms and run through the man and put him on the ground tackling, like you've been taught since Pop Warner ball.

I'm looking at you, Hefney.

3. Alright I understand Cutcliffe is a QB guru and we won't stick to the running game but could we please throw the ball downfield just a little? Please? I'll even draw it up for you:

Pretty simple, eh?

Predictiony-type things:

• If the team that showed up against Florida and Alabama shows up Saturday, Vols lose 41-21.
• If the team that showed up against Georgia and Arkansas shows up Saturday, Vols win 35-17
• Note that the two good games mentioned were in Neyland, the two poor showings were on the road. Saturday's game is on the road. Ugh.

But with the Airing of Grievances over, let's see some Feats of Strength. Go Vols!

As per usual, not real happy with this ballot:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU	1
2	Missouri	5
3	Kansas	--
4	Arizona State	--
5	Ohio State	5
6	West Virginia	--
7	Southern Cal	4
8	Virginia Tech	1
9	Georgia	1
10	Florida	3
11	Boston College	9
12	Oklahoma	7
13	Oregon	12
14	Texas	2
15	Illinois	4
16	Tennessee	2
17	Connecticut	8
18	Virginia	--
19	Wisconsin	5
20	Texas Tech	6
21	Cincinnati	5
22	Boise State	7
23	Kentucky	7
24	South Florida	2
25	Hawaii	3

Again, most major discrepancies and wacky delta arrows are the difference between how Joel sees things (he submitted last week's ballot) and how I see things.

The very top's not bad, but as has been the case all year, it's hard to wade through the mediocrity and sort out 7-25.

Tennessee: too high? too low?

I don't really believe Georgia is the #9 team in America, but I can't find ten teams to rank ahead of them. So there you go. Discuss.

Well, this is it boys and girls. The whole season, boiled down to one game, against an ancient border rival. It's already the kind of game that must be won anyway just to protect our way of life, which is so obviously superior to theirs: even though UK began playing football before UT, we've brought the game further then they have, Big Orange is far better than Big Blue, and Tennessee whiskey is silky smooth going down compared to that Kentucky bourbon swill.

Add to that the fact that Tennessee is playing for everything here -- namely a shot at the SEC title -- against a team who sees beating Tennessee as everything in itself. Kentucky is bowl eligible already, but don't think that's enough for the Cats. They went to and won a bowl game last year. They've even been to a New Year's Day bowl in the last decade. What they haven't done is beat Tennessee. And this year especially, when anything is possible, this seems like the perfect time for UK to end their 22-year losing streak to the Vols.

I've heard this game coming for a while now, just like the narrator in Poe's story quoted above hears the heart of the old man beating beneath the floorboards. Through all the improbable turns this season has taken, there were two things I wrote at FanHouse during the summer that have haunted the back of my mind. First, of Kentucky (and Vandy):

Now Kentucky might have gotten all of their upset ability out in beating LSU, and if that's true, they won't really have had much to do with who wins the East. They'll just have one really impressive upset win on their bowl resume. But, more frighteningly, I also wrote this: O...M...G. That's entirely too prescient. I never really get things like that right, but part has already happened (the East champ will have two losses) and one of the two things written above will happen also. Either Kentucky pulls an upset that determines the SEC East race, or Tennessee starts 1-2 and wins eight of nine to take the division.

You know which one I'm rooting for, but either way I might never make any predictions ever again. The possibility of being right can make you crazy.

Go Vols!

In the name of unity and negativity:

Where I come from, we have a saying we pull out around this time of year: SOV. It stands for "Same Old Vandy," because you can always count on a few things in life, such as death, taxes, and Vanderbilt being terrible.

But this ain't daddy's 'Dores. These boys can play, and after TSOWWDNS, it's not like a Commie win in Knoxville is still unprecedented. They've got Earl Bennett as we all know, but their vastly underrated defense is what's really worrisome to me.

Still, it's hard to shake the notion that somehow "behind every 'Dore is a Tennessee score" no longer applies. So in looking for reasons why Vandy has a real chance to beat the Vols, I was happy to find Vandy Sport Line's preview for the game, and keeping with Mr. Mayo's request for negativity, parsed below into 3 reasons Vanderbilt will beat Tennessee:

1.

Some would say it's similar to the days of Dewey Warren. But yes, this is even obvious to Vandy fans who are only subjected to watching the Tennessee offense once a year: not much changes in the Vol playbook.

The danger a Vandy fan faces in evoking memories is that, of course, Peyton never lost to the 'Dores. But, those were better UT teams against weaker Vanderbilt sides (arguably). And other than a 65-0 woodshedding in 1994, the Commodores always kept it close against Manning.

You can worry that Vandy has seen everything Tennessee has to offer, and they'll be prepared if nothing else.

2.

There might be some hyperbole there; hopefully there's nobody running literally untouched at Erik Ainge. And if there is, the fix should be nothing more than just a simple adjustment, because we know how fast Tennessee has been to adjust this year... oh, aw crap.

Could we get outschemed against Vandy? It happened against Bama, it happened in the second half against Spurrier. So it is something to worry about.

The paragraph quoted above does, however, ignore the fact that equal to the line's efforts in keeping Ainge upright is Ainge's own ability to get rid of the ball in a timely manner... but I went positive for a second there. Sorry.

3.

Bottom line: Earl Bennett is better than DJ Hall, and if Bennett is given the same gigantic cushions Hall got, it could be a very long, frustrating Saturday for all of us in orange. It would be eerie if on the day of Inky Johnson's last run through the T, it's the inexperience of the secondary that gets us beat.

I just want to mention that writing all of this is making me feel very, very dirty; and I hope that I'm very, very wrong. But my sacrifice to the gods of negativity won't be complete with out the following:

Vanderbilt 28, Tennessee 24. Show your gold!

Ugh. I need a shower.

There's a lot on the line for the Vols this weekend: possibly, whether right or wrong, Fulmer's job; and definitely the right to stay alive for a trip to the Georgia Dome.

You might say that second one doesn't matter because this team can't possibly beat LSU if they get there, and that might even be true. But, we've heard all year about how young this team is, and just the chance to experience the taste of a SEC Championship game could prove invaluable for guys like Berry, Creer, Vinson, Jones, et al.

So forget the fact that this game is an early kickoff on Jefferson Financial Lincoln Whatever. The utter ginormity of the weekend cannot be ignored. Neither can the fact that, historically, this is the game that Tennessee is most likely to lose en route to an SECCG. Though improved, Kentucky is still Kentucky and Vandy is still Vandy. Arkansas is the team that came to Neyland in 1992 against a #4-ranked Vol team that had beaten Georgia and Florida and was charging for the first SEC East title. That Arkansas team had lost to The Citadel earlier in the season, but it didn't stop them from ruining UT's season, touching off a three-game losing streak that ultimately lead to Johnny Majors' demise. Then there's 1999 and a #2 Tennessee team that went to Fayetteville and choked away a return trip to the BCS championship. And don't forget last year's shellacking that potentially kept the Vols from a BCS bowl bid.

Those are the Hogs' only three wins in 15 tries against Tennessee. Each one was a season-changer. Like I said, ginormous. I know, you're still thinking, "Yeahbut, this is the same Arkansas that fell apart against Alabama and, to a lesser degree, Auburn. Didn't they get killed by Kentucky? Didn't they struggle against Chattanooga, for chrissakes? Isn't the brilliance of McFadden and Jones canceled by the ineptitude of Nutt and Dick? What could we possibly have to fear?"

Here's your answer:

The horror... THE HORROR!

Arkansas' rush offense v. Tennessee's rush defense, in terms of per-game averages, and digestible table form:

Rushing Stats/game	att	yards	yds/att	TDs	1st	10+	20+
Arky's offense gets:	49	316	6.44	2.8	13.8	9.1	3.4
UT's defense gives up:	37	168	4.55	1.3	8.8	5.7	1.5

Yes, that's real. Arkansas averages 316 yards per game. Yes, they require an insane amount of carries to do it, but they have an insane amount of running backs to split carries between, and that 6.4 average is scary. I don't like those last two columns, either -- that's nine 10-yard runs and over three 20-yard runs per game. On average. The Tennessee defensive numbers aren't as bad as I would have guessed, but I'd still be surprised if the Vol D holds this team much below their averages.

Oddly, though, that might be OK. Against Alabama and Kentucky, Arkansas averaged 52 carries for 319.5 and about six yards a pop. Arkansas also lost those two games. The key? Perhaps the fact that Bama and UK only gave up 3 rushing TDs between them. Bend but don't break, anyone?

This might be a good time to warn against hoping for the same kind of effort Auburn put up against Arky: the Tigers held the Hogs to 25 attempts and 67 yards. Arkansas also attempted 27 passes in that game for a grand total of 52 plays run, just three more than the number of rushing plays they normally call. Auburn dominated TOP and out-first-downed the heck out of the Razorbacks that night. It's great if you can do it, but it's only been done once this year, so don't bank on it.

[editor's note, by CornFromAJar] Caveat: much of the preceding was written before the Great Math Wars of '07... fortunately, I had the self-awareness not to try anything formulaic (sorry, Joel!). The point that both Joel and I are trying to make, I think, is that Arkansas is going to run for a lot of yards. There are still ways to beat them, though.

Auburn was an anomaly, Kentucky and Alabama are the blueprint (statistically, FWIW, we fall roughly in between Bama and UK). So how did the Cats and Tide beat Arky?

The horrible... THE HORRIBLE!

This Casey Dick guy? Not a good quarterback. He ranks in the bottom part of the SEC in just about every passing category. In the UK and Bama losses, Dick was well below 50% completions and never got close to 200 yards, with a 1-1 touchdown-interception ratio. He can be efficient: he's got a 1.8-to-1 TD-INT ratio (Ainge is 3-1, Woodson 4-1 for comparison) and was 8/10 for 86 yards and two touchdowns last week against South Carolina. When that stat line belongs to the winning quarterback, you've done something very wrong to lose the game, namely allowed Arkansas to rush for wayyy over their average.

So, keep the Hogs around their average, and allow Casey Dick to make his normal screw-ups, and everything should be fine. But there's one thing the Vols will have to worry about that Kentucky and Alabama didn't...

The x-factors... THE X-FACTORS!

Marcus Monk: remember that guy? The one who caught eight passes for about 140 yards and a couple of TDs against Tennessee last year? After missing most of this season so far, he should be back for Saturday... although he was held out of Tuesday's practice, as was fellow WR Robert Johnson. If those guys are healthy and able to help Arkansas' pass offense, it could be big trouble. Especially if Chavis has his DBs give the huge cushions given to the Alabama and South Carolina receivers when we played them.

Another x-factor: Felix Jones is the #7 kick returner in the nation. And we know how well Tennessee covers kicks.

Tennessee's got an x-factor, too, and I'm referring to the whole offense. It's hard to pin down what the Vol offense really is. There's potential for a good running game, but it tends to be underutilized. There's potential for an explosive passing game, but a bunch of short routes get thrown. When the game is over, will we see that Tennessee was able to grind out some first downs and keep McFadden and Jones off the field, or will the drive chart show a bunch of three-and-outs?

Statistically, other than the pass defense that Joel is worried about, Arkansas seems very similar to Mississippi State -- and they've played similar competition -- so there is potential (there's that word again) for Ainge and Co.

Lots of Thoughts and Some Clouds of Dust

[In the interest of letting no good idea go unstolen, the format of the following is roughly taken from Brian's game previews at MGoBlog. At least I didn't steal the kitty pictures... some things are still sacred.]

Hide all breakables and sharp objects if...

1. McFadden and Jones get closer to 400 yards than 300 yards
2. We kick to Jones
3. Marcus Monk is given a couple of acres of East Tennessee soil to roam around

Get out the clogs and fire up Rocky Top if...

1. Cutcliffe sticks to the running game for more than one quarter
2. "Good Erik" shows up
3. Houston Nutt gets this look on his face:

Fear/paranoia level --9.5/10-- Baseline 5, +1 for '92, +1 for '99, +.5 for '06, +1 for McFadden and Jones, +1 for No, Really, McFadden and Jones, +1 for Potential Monk Career Day, +1 for We Forget to Wake Up for JP Games, -1 for Nutt and Dick, -1 for No, Really, Nutt and Dick.

Desperate need to win level --11/10-- Baseline 5, +5 for Atlanta's On the Line, +1 for I Can't Take Another Season-Ruining Loss to These Guys.

Loss will cause me to: Call for Fulmer to be replaced by the esteemed Houston Nutt, esq.

Win will cause me to: Hastily search eBay for SEC Championship tickets, setting myself up for bitter disappointment in the next two weeks.

And I suppose after all that I have to make a prediction (though it makes me squeamish) so I'll say Tennessee 38, Arkansas 35. Yikes.

Go Vols!

In their preview of this weekend's game, the RaginCajuns.com website says this about ULL:

How much should we worry about a team who, had they actually beaten FAU, would have considered it an upset? A shocking upset at that?

Not much. I've heard the comparisons to what Air Force did (or almost did) to us last year. These guys aren't Air Force. They're not even the Vol Navy. Okay, that's hyperbole, the Cajuns did put a scare into South Carolina in the season-opener. But that was before reeling off another four losses, including multiple-touchdown defeats against Troy, UCF, and McNeese State (and of course, McNeese isn't even a state!).  They also lost 52-21 against the same Arkansas State team the Vols beat 48-27 (and Arkansas isn't even a... oh, oh yeah).

The most (only?) worrisome aspect of the ULL team is QB Michael Desormeaux, the nation's leading rushing quarterback and 24th-ranked runner overall . And we all know how well Tennessee's performed against running quarterbacks lately.

However, for as maligned as the Vol defense has been, it's still statistically the best rushing defense ULL will have faced this year -- 68th, at  4.5 yards/carry and 159 yards/game (A-St is 72, 4.3 YPC, 169 YPG; and Carolina is 74, 4.1 YPC, 169 YPG)

And unfortunately, due to a lack of time I'm not able to draw this post out to where I wanted it, so jump straight to the three things this game should allow Tennessee to do in order to prepare for the stretch run (these are not predictions, predictions can go badly around here):

1. Stop a good running team, especially a team with a good running QB
2. find some rhythm on offense (and audition for Coker's snaps)
3. Play a lot of people

The way this season has gone, it's hard to expect a blowout in any game. And Desormeaux will get some yards, inevitably. But it's reasonable to expect this game to play out sort of like the Ark. St. game did: uncomfortable for a while but the Vols pull away in the end.

Of course, if we've got another loss in us, I'd rather get it out this week than any other... but nah.

Go Vols!

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU	--
2	Oregon	11
3	Arizona State	4
4	Ohio State	2
5	Oklahoma	6
6	Kansas	--
7	Boston College	4
8	West Virginia	2
9	Missouri	5
10	Virginia Tech	6
11	Auburn	10
12	Georgia	14
13	Alabama	11
14	Michigan	1
15	Texas	1
16	Southern Cal	4
17	Florida	8
18	Tennessee	8
19	South Carolina	1
20	Kentucky	1
21	Connecticut	5
22	Wake Forest	4
23	South Florida	18
24	Boise State	2
25	Hawaii	17

So here's the story: last week, we were criticized by Brian for Hawaii's huge jump on our ballot. The thing is that depending on who has more time in a given week, either Joel or I will enter the ballot. Joel and I don't think alike on everything... for example, Hawaii's place in the top 25. I believe Hawaii deserves a ranking just because surviving this long with a perfect record, even against really, really, bad competition, is worth something, not much, but something. So 25 seems a likely place for them.

Contrast that with Joel, who apparently sees the Warriors as dark horse national title contenders. Hey, at least he's off the FSU wagon.

Bottom line is, I don't think the "deltas" are that big of a deal. I don't look at the previous week's ballot anyway, I just go by what that week feels like.

The key here is you guys. Because Joel's opinion and mine are going to be so different, we need y'all to help level us out. So as always, leave your thoughts and suggestions on how to make this ballot better before it goes live Wednesday.  

Also, and I don't know why this is, but I feel like I made a huge error on this ballot. Can't put my finger on it, but something seems off. Anybody see anything glaring?

Update [2007-10-30 22:37:27 by CornFromAJar]: Final ballot submitted, with changes toward the bottom: 17) UConn, 18) Florida, 19) Wake, 20) Tennessee, 21) Carolina, 22) Kentucky. Still not perfect, but it's there.