Pick your Cardinals Top 10 Prospects

CrimsonBirdFan — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:21:00 -0000

With the recent anouncement of the Cards ranking 8th in Baseball America’s organizational prospect rankings, how about naming your top 10 Cards prospects. Future Redbirds has a great list going right now. Most I agree, others I don’t. Try to justify your own rankings…

10. David Freese- I’d like him more if he was 22 (or 23 or 24). Its hard to get real excited about a 26 year old putting up good minor league numbers. If he’s any kind of a prospect, he better put up good numbers at the age of 26. I think that should be expected. Either way, he plays + defense and could end up hitting .280 with 20 HR as a big league ball player. Not too shabby.

9. Jaime Garcia- Without the injury, he easily cracks the top 5. Luckily Tommy John has become a pretty routine surgery for pitchers. Maybe it’s a blessing that it comes as a young pitcher rather than in the middle of his prime. Then again, maybe it just spells a career full of arm injuries. He’s got the most potential of any SP in the system. Probably a decent #3 with a chance at being better. He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher, which is always encouraging.

8. Jess Todd- I know the criticisms: too small and doesn’t have a 3rd pitch. But check his AA and AAA numbers, then view the peripherals. Pretty impressive. Long term, maybe he’s best as a reliever, but he’ll have to prove me and others differently before that move is made. Other than Jaime Garcia, he’s the best SP in our system. That makes our position players and relievers all that more impressive considering we are the 8th ranked organization in baseball.

7. Bryan Anderson- Obviously this is much lower than most people would put him. I think, quite frankly, he’s being vastly overrated. I really wish I could put him higher, but he’s average at best behind the plate and has shown next to no power (1 HR every 65 Abs). Obviously, he does hit for a high average and is very very young for a AAA catcher, but some power needs to develop for him to justify being a top 5 prospect in this organization. Right now he’s a future Paul Lo Duca from the left side, with even less power.

6. Jon Jay- Probably the most underrated player in the organization. He dominated AA and AAA last year, yet didn‘t crack the top 10 on Future Redbirds list. He’s getting a bit aged for a prospect (24), but people are quick to give praise to Freese, when Jay put up similar numbers despite being younger. I guess my question would be, if he stays at AAA for 2 more seasons, would he be better at age 26 than Freese? I would think so. He also has + speed and ++defense. Unfortunately, his success is being overshadowed probably because he’s blocked from every direction.

5. Jason Motte- Like Todd, the complaint is not enough pitches. Its legitamate, he really only has one pitch…blazing fastball. But look at the peripherals at AAA and MLB this year. Insane K/BB rate in AAA and actually improved in MLB. Now maybe MLB hitters hadn’t seen much of him, but you know they got the straight fastball scouting report, and it didn’t matter. If he develops a 2nd pitch, he’s a dominating closer. Without it, he’s probably still a solid reliever/setup man.

4. Daryl Jones- Most Cards fans know the book on him. The organization finally took a high upside project type player in the 2005 draft after a shameful 2004, and it appeared he was a complete bust. Then Jones went on a tear through A+ and AA last season. Finally he showed some bat control, plate patience, and developing power. My biggest concern would be his K rate, which is still awfully high. Despite that, I think he’s turned a corner and I continue to expect him to put up solid numbers next season in a split between AA and AAA.

3. Perez- The difference between Perez and Motte is a pretty unexciting slider. Motte has better velocity and probably has better control too. But that unexciting slider still has potential and can keep hitters off balance a bit. If he wants to be a dominating closer, it needs to be an out pitch though. I think he got a taste of the big leagues and now realizes why its so important. I also like his mental makeup, which is obviously important for a closer. Look for him to have a quality year, then assume full time closer duties after 2009.

2. Brett Wallace- Last year we were 13th in MLB rankings, now were 8th. Most of that is Wallace’s impact (along with a bit of help from others). If the draft were to be redone today, he’d probably be a top 5 pick. He’s a complete package at the dish. Enough power to drive the ball deep, enough patience to draw walks, and the ability to hit for a very high average (think .320 25-30 HR). I look at him as Garrett Atkins without the Coors field effect (and a L handed hitter). That’s good from the plate, bad in the field. Either way, its not hard to find a place for a player of his talent to play. If it isn’t 3rd base, we’ll know by the end of 2009.

1. Colby Rasmus- 2008 wasn’t what he wanted, or anyone else. He was injured, and when he wasn’t, didn’t hit all that well. But in the middle of numerous injuries, he had a more Rasmus-like June (.338/.417/.541) before suffering another injury. His early season slump can be excused 2 ways: he normally struggles upon promotions and he was probably frustrated after earning a big league spot in spring training, and not getting it. How would you feel if your boss told you that multimillion dollar raise you earned was going to have to wait 1 more year at least ( i.e. his FA clock)? That’s baseball though, he’s going to need more mental toughness than that. Obviously, 5-tool potential. Probably a .275 hitter with 30 HR potential and 20 SB. I still like the Sizemore comparison, although they went in different directions this season. His talent can really be summed up in 1 way. Despite injuries and a down year at the plate, he’s still ranked in the top 8 prospects in all of baseball. People know he’s the real deal, its just a matter of time before he starts proving it.

Now a quick justification of notable players I left off:

Craig- the difference between Freese and Craig, a glove. He's blocked every direction. He needs a position change, but LF or 1B would be ideal, and he'd be blocked there as well.

Kozma- I've seen him play a couple times and I'm shocked he was a 1st round pick. The reports of defense that stick to shortstop are off in my opinion. He's been pretty awful with the glove in the games I've seen. Limited power and plate patience to boot.

Boggs- AAA peripherals aren't as impressive as the straight stats. He's bottom of the rotation material though...

Mortenson- Like Boggs, his peripherals aren't very impressive, but neither are his straight stats. He was advanced too quickly. Control is a big issue.

Other players are big potential type guys. Some like Herron and Ottavino took a big step back in 2008. Hopefully they improve in 09 and work their way back onto the list.

SB Nation User Blog: CrimsonBirdFan

Pick your Cardinals Top 10 Prospects