Look, the reality is that Chavez is going nowhere and Crosby is likely staying put as well. Dude's got next to ZERO trade value. Injuries are killing us and we may have little chance to make the playoffs. But even if this is a rebuilding year, then why aren't we rebuilding?

There are some changes that could be made immediately to help right the ship a bit ...

Continue reading this post »

As exciting (and necessary) as today's win was, it got me thinking about some of the more established tenets of sabermetrics and how I feel that some of them are conceptually flawed. Now, I'm as big a believer of stat based decision making as anyone else here, but there are few of these ideas that I find faulty, or at least not worth the weight we all put on them. I'll talk about the first in this diary, and I'm curious about what people think.

1. Run Differential as a means of measuring the quality of a team

I understand that over the course of a year, the best teams will score far more runs than they will allow. I also understand that some teams will get a bit lucky and win more games than they should. However, this Royals series got me thinking about a problem I've had with this idea as it has pertained to the A's of the last three or four years.

During this series, we outscored the Royals 18-14. However, we only won 1 of 3 games. That happens sometimes; three games is a small sample size. But anyone who watched those games knows that we played like crap during games 1 and 2 (causing AN to go into a tailspin) and then played abnormally well in game 3. You could argue that this was an ugly series, or at least 2/3 of it was. You could also argue that our 7-0 win today is more indicative of the quality of this team than were the ugly losses, but would that be true?

If we continue to play like this over the course of the year, we will likely end up with a good run differential, and we might even make the playoffs by winning some of these series, but are we then a good team? I mean, a really good team?

This series to me is a microcosm of what the A's have been doing for years. Lose heartbreakers by one or two runs (due largely to an inept offense/bullpen) and then blow out bad teams, often during torrid summer runs. This creates for us a good run differential, but does it make the A's a legitimately good team? Does it make the A's a great team? Again, the numbers suggest yes, but our eyes would tell us a different story.

Could this be why we flamed out in the playoffs every year? Do we artificially inflate our statistics during games like this while losing games that a better team would win? Do we puff up our stature as a team by becoming a July juggernaut and beaing up on the KCs and Tampas of the world?

What do you all think?

We had grown too complacent.

This was finally the year.

The stars were going to align in 06.

What fools we were. Not to believe that the A's could win this year, but to think it would be easy. You see, I've finally figured out the madness of this team.

To win and win easily would do nothing for our souls. The A's know that. To win without struggle may give us immediate happiness, but it would not build character. We would learn nothing from easy wins.

We haven't been thoroughly cleansed yet, though it's getting closer by the day. We must be completely broken down, so much so that we no longer think we can ever root for the A's again, only to watch them rise from the ashes, to make us appreciate wins, to appreciate their greatness.

Only when we are at our collective lowest point can we begin to move forward, to grow, to accept each win as a gift and to embrace those wins. Anyone see "V for Vendetta?" Same thing here. Break us down, tear us apart, leave us for dead. Only when we can live without fear: without fear of another blown save, without fear of another injury, without fear of another DP, can we truly be reborn.

This, my friends, is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. It is the end of the beginning. (Churchill)

Go A's. I'll see you all in June.

I feel better already.

I'm as big a Frank Thomas fan as anyone else here, but I'm beginning to wonder, as we pass the 1/4 season mark:

How much longer can we be patient with Big Frank? How much longer can an offense that is starting to put it together be saddled with Frank's sub-.200 average batting in the heart of the order?

It's a big time risk/reward situation. He either homers, or pops out. Well, that's not fair ... he walks, too. He doesn't need to hit .300, but if he were even hitting .250 with his patience at the plate and the occasional homer, we could tolerate that.

Look at it this way: when (if) Bradley returns, we slide Swish to 1st with either DJ or Melhuse at DH. Frank could end up being the odd man out. He's still an presence at the plate, but he's becoming an increasingly easy out.

I just wonder how long we can continue to put him out there every day if he continues to hit the way he has. It's like he's a future HOFer version of what Eric Karros gave us a few years back ...

Thoughts?

Okay, I'm just preparing us for this debate, because it WILL happen soon:

How are we possibly going to justify sitting Adam Melhuse in favor of Kendall when Kendall finishes his suspension? You know Macha will just put Kendall right back in the lineup as soon as he's ready, but is there any justification for it?

Since Melhuse has stepped in for Kendall, he's:

4 for 12 with 2 homers and 4 RBI.

In May, he's hitting .318/.375/.682!

Small sample size and all that aside, there should be ZERO doubt that Melhuse is not only a superior hitter, but a FAR superior hitter. Whereas Kendall provides the hitting of a National League Pitcher, Melhuse is an actual offensive presence with real power. He should be playing every day! Even if he can't provide this level of offense for an entire season, he's bound to do far, far better than Kendall. At least with Melhuse, we have the CHANCE of a big hit, instead of a weak DP.

I guess I'm writing this diary because I know that Macha will put Kendall right back in the lineup and he'll go back to hitting those little dribblers to second base, and I can vent now BEFORE it happens.

So what do you think, AN? Will Kendall just slide back into the lineup with his sub .300 slugging percentage? Or will Macha shake things up and let Melhuse play?

(And don't talk to me about "intangibles" ... if that's all we can fall back on to justify Kendall's playing time, we're no better than Angel fans when they support THEIR Mr. Intangibles: Darin Erstad. We need to hold on to the moral high ground, people.)

Hi everyone,

Sorry to use a diary for this, but I need some help.

Aside from at the colliseum, where can I find some of those kick-ass A's Jersey T's? The only ones I can find online are of "national" players like Ramirez and Jeter, and now, for some reason, Hudson on Atlanta. What, no Ginter? No Chuck Thomas?

Like many of you, I'm already dreaming of a Big Frank Jersey T. Anyone know where I can find them (preferably online because I don't live in Oakland)? Or are these shirts a phenomenon only to be enjoyed if I drive 6 hours up the 5 freeway to the Colliseum?

Okay, so I write this diary knowing full well that it's only one loss and that the season is far from over. But as I sit here in my apartment, more than an hour after Crosby watched that pitch go by, I'm still stewing over this one. I'm sure you all are as well.

I've tried rationalizing this loss. I've tried pointing out that as bad as it feels for us, it must feel just as bad to be an Angel fan, or a Yankee fan ... or a Red Sox fan last night. Four teams, all lose heartbreaker-shoulda-won games. Does that make me feel better?

They're still 1.5 up on the WC. Does that make me feel better?

They rallied. Does that make me feel better?

Not really.

So here's my question to you, AN: what do you do to get over a tough loss? What do you have to say to yourself to not let it linger with you? Can you let losses like this slide off your back? If so, how long does it take?

I know we're just fans, but it still hurts.

Outfielder Mark Kotsay and the Oakland Athletics have reached agreement on a contract extension, ESPN's Peter Gammons reports.

The deal is a two-year extension worth $15 million. Kotsay cannot opt out of his 2006 contract, meaning the deal runs through 2008. The total amount Kotsay will earn through 2008, including 2005, is $29 million. Kotsay also has a no-trade clause through 2006.

Kotsay is hitting .278 with six homers and 43 RBI.

What concerns me (and I know it concerns others as well) about this team is not that they are so bad (offensively), but that it really makes no sense why they are so bad. Young players with track records haven't hit, established players are dramatically underperforming. Real HITTERS aren't hitting. And it's snowballing now. The A's offense was seen as a strength before the season, not just by people on this site, but objectively as well, by established sports writers.

Yet, here we are, a pathetic offensive void. Players come here, they struggle. Kendall comes to mind (and I know it's early). Ginter, too. Swisher rakes in AAA, but can't hit a lick up here. Johnson hasn't hit yet. Watson couldn't hit. I know it's small sample sizes, but seriously, what is it about this major league club that saps offense?

Here's the question: What are the A's telling players to do (or not telling them to do) that's making established hitters forget everything they ever knew about hitting?

This team is an offensive void right now.

Hitters come in, but they don't come out ...

The Bermuda Triangle of Hitting.

I know everyone's frustrated with the team's offensive woes, but what I'm getting from all of these posts is that what's most irritating to people is the lack of fire in the players, the lack of anger after they strike out or blow it in a key situation. I think that people here would just be happy if Chavy would swear at the umps or if Byrnes would start a fight with Charles Thomas or something ...

Can we check ourselves here? Is this rational criticism or is this knee-jerk anger? It's every fan's right to be pissed and want the players to share that emotional attachment to wins and losses but as players, they just can't. It's not healthy for them.  

I'm paraphrasing this from a book (can't remember which): the players (knowing it's a long season and knowing that they will have as many 0-4 days as they will 3-4) NEED to take every game in stride, or else they'd kill themselves with regret over this pitch or that pitch or this error or that error. THEY'RE NOT FANS. We want them to be, but they're not. We live and day over EVERY moment, but they CAN'T. If they did, they'd be where Mitch Williams is now ... or Donnie Moore.

It's their JOB, and if they didn't stay focused, they'd lose their minds over the wild fluctuations between good days and bad days. I loved Tejada's fire, too, but I also remember him bitching all the way down the third base line in Boston.

Hey, I love emotional outbursts (I still remember Kotsay screaming at Manny after that botched call in August), but we need to remember, while they do indeed want to win, they can't kill themselves after every loss. There are just too many of them. If they press now, they may never get it going.