CubsWin!Oregon
Jul 29, 2008 Mar 09, 2012 9 1875
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The band The Baseball Project's "Cubs 2010" single
I thought for sure someone would've linked to this already, but I searched for it and didn't find anything. Apologies if I just missed it though.
The band The Baseball Project released a single called "Cubs 2010" to go along with their prediction that the Cubs will win the World Series this year. The Baseball Project is a super-group band comprised of Peter Buck and Scott McCaughey of R.E.M. fame, Steve Wynn of the Dream Syndicate, and Linda Pitmon, all of whom, in addition to being famous musicians, are devoted baseball fans.
This link is to the ESPN article on the song. You can listen to the single and download it for free. While it's no Stairway to Heaven, it's a fun song for what it is. :)
ADAMLIND!!1! / Blue Jays agree to 4 year/$18 mil contract.
But not to worry: I think we can safely assume this is merely part of a sign & trade deal and he'll be with the Cubs shortly. :)
2010 Sloan Conference: Sabermetrics and its future...
This link isn't for everyone, but it's a write-up of some of the happenings at the 2010 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference that recently concluded in Boston. Sloan is basically a conference for famous stat-heads, sports organizations, and others to come together and talk/argue about sport analysis (including people who don't buy into sabermetrics).
It offers some really interesting insights on a number of things, including:
* the difficulties of implementing the ideas of sabermetrics into pro sports teams, even when the organization buys into it (It's worth noting that stat analysis isn't limited to baseball btw!);
* thoughts on the direction and role of sports analytics (ie stat analysis) in the future;
*and much more. Well worth the read for those interested.
(Apologies if someone already mentioned this; I looked around and didn't see any posts on it)
The Curious Case of Carlos Marmol
Nothing new or groundbreaking here, but the comparisons are interesting.
It would be nice if this was a Rick Vaughn case and we just need to get Carlos some cool eye-glasses...
CAIRO Very Early Projections: Cubs 83.7 Wins
For fun, here's a posting of a 2010 projected standings based off of CAIRO v2.0. Important to keep in mind that these standings have a range of +/- 7 wins off the given number.
Based on that, the Cubs don't look great but are competitive for the division. I'll be shocked in the Reds actually finish ahead of the Cubs though.
FanGRAPHS on Cubs "Addition by Subtraction" (edited for typo :))
I don't think this will change any minds on either side, but thought I'd pass it along.
While I agree with the general thrust, I'm not sure it's a given that Silva spells the end of Gorzo's playing time. Or at least it wouldn't in a rational world...
The incongruity of our perceptions and probabilities
I thought I'd pass along this very short essay on probabilities and human perception. It goes a long way, I think, to illustrating how our perceptions of a circumstance are often clouded and incongruous with actual probabilities.
Hat tip: Rob Neyer's ESPN blog
Brewers fan shakes-down Marlin's rookie for first Home-Run ball...
ESPN had this up on their website: Marlin's rookie Chris Coghlan was upset with a Brewers fan in Milwaukee who caught his first home-run ball .
After giving the fan a signed bat and taking photos with him, Coghlan says that the fan tried to extort tickets, signed gear from Hanley Ramirez, and more.
At least to my reading, the fan sounds like a real jerk-off...
Rating Outfield Arms
by CubsWin!Oregon on Jan 23, 2009 2:15 PM EST
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
Over at the Hardball Times, they've released their annual review of the Best Outfield Arms for 2008.
You can find the results here.
In a nutshell, the report analyzes specific game situations (outlined in the article) to evaluate the number of runners thrown out by a player, as well as the number of times that a runner elected not to run on a particular outfielder when he otherwise might be expected to. (This latter part is important because merely analyzing the number of runners thrown out can be misleading: most runners simply won't challenge the best outfield arms, so they don't rack up those numbers; conversely, mediocre arms will be tested quite a bit).
In addition, the article weighs the results by ballpark and position.
I thought this would be especially interesting to post because it rates Alfonso Soriano as having the best defensive arm for a Left Fielder in 2008. Yes, you read that right. As the article notes:
For the third straight season, Soriano takes top honors in throwing for a left fielder. As in past years, Soriano excelled in nailing baserunners [...]
[...] Soriano was hurt for part of the 2008 season and only accrued about a half-season's worth of opportunities, but he made the most of them. He impressively threw out four runners trying to score from third base on a fly ball. Curiously, Soriano's hold rate is only about average, despite his proficiency in gunning down opponents since he became an outfielder. You'd think that runners would start wising up.
Besides Soriano, the best CF arm (and likely best overall OF arm) was Los Angeles' Matt Kemp. And Hunter Pence of the Astros rated the best RF arm. The Worst? Mark Teahan, Juan Pierre, and Brian Giles.
While it's easy to overstate the relative importance of this sort of statistic, and while it fluctuates from year to to year because of a relatively small sample size, it nonetheless should at least come into play when we evaluate Soriano's relative value to the team. Perhaps he isn't quite the bum that some people might try to imply.
At a minimum, perhaps it'll allow us to discuss how different the statistics are from our own (flawed?) perceptions while watching the games...
:)
(Lastly a note to Al: as this was my first post on BCB, I read through the primer between FanPost/FanShots, but wasn't sure where this sort of post should be directed. I hope I got it right, but let me know if I screwed it up.)
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