Well, we've had a lot of fun at CSR attempting to gauge the effectiveness of Marty Hurney where drafting talent is concerned. To refresh your memory, we introduced a system here, and with minor refinements revisited it here and here. And as with any such system, it received its fair share of detractors.

The problem here is, a player's success is not just about their talent. It's about the talent around them, the coaching they receive, and the philosophy of the coaching staff. A GM can draft a great man corner, but if the coach plays zone all the time then he may find himself watching instead of playing. Was that a good pick? What can you say about selecting a running back when you already have a great one on your roster? Do you need two star quality backs or just one, with a change-of-pace guy behind him on the bench? We all love Jonathan Stewart, but was he the best pick we could have made?

Maybe if we didn't have DeAngelo Williams he would have been, but that year we really needed an offensive lineman. But instead of taking Chris Williams, Branden Albert, Gosder Cherilus or Jeff Otah we grabbed Stewart, and then traded away our 2009 first round pick to take Otah later. That in turn led to a desperation trade in 2009 that cost us our 2010 pick, which we could have used to take Tim Tebow, right?

Ok, maybe the pick wasn't THAT bad in retrospect, but the bottom line is that we took a running back when we already had a great one. So he's a great player, but he isn't Hurney's best pick by far.

It's not just need that causes confusion, it's the effort to compare a wide receiver with a defensive tackle. They're two very different positions, so how do you measure how effective each selection is? Granted, some people probably believe you can just look at their Madden ratings, but those kind of armchair GMs have probably stopped reading already.

So we looked at appearances, starts, pro bowls, and all pro games. It's about all you have. And it's no surprise that others feel the same way, it's really about all you can use unless you have insanely in-depth stats (and Barnwell probably does, but uses these anyway).

Our conclusion? Hurney's a top ten GM as far as drafting players is concerned. We haven't looked at his cap management (stellar), we haven't looked at the quality of his coaching staffs (I'm pretty happy with them), and we haven't looked at his ability to make good trades or sign good free agents (meh...). We've just looked at the draft.

Is that enough? Probably not....we will look at these other factors...after the jump...

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How do you think he's done?

When you grade Marty Hurney, you should consider the following. First, how do you tell if a GM is effective; how do you evaluate their strengths and weaknesses? And second, how easy would it be to find someone who could come in and do a better job?

There are a lot of Madden jocks and internet cowboys who think that being an NFL General Manager is easy, it's simply a matter of drafting as many superstars as you can and finding the rest in Free Agency. With YouTube and other internet video sites, evaluating talent is a snap. You just look at the highlight clips, read a few blogs, and suddenly you're an expert who would do way better than the chucklehead who's in charge of your favorite team.

It's not that simple. More after the jump...

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Last week we unveiled a system for judging draft picks and draft classes. As promised then, here are the scores of every draft Marty Hurney has driven for the Panthers.

Of course, there are some surprises here. This is a unbiased system, it grades strictly by the round a player is taken in, how many games they've played, over how many seasons, and how many times they've started.

(Editor's note: Please understand that this is not measuring the talent of a player, it's looking at the impact the draft pick had on the team. Players who contribute right away reflect more favorably on the GM, those that sit for several years usually develop because of the coaching. This is all about the GM's score, not the coach's.)

A player who comes in and contributes right away, and then flames out, will be rated higher than one who sits on the bench for four years before becoming a starter. This was explained in detail in the aforementioned article. And it's why a player like Keary Colbert is rated as a better draft pick than James Anderson. Anderson is a better player, but based on the lifespan of a GM he may end up being a better player for the next guy. Colbert contributed right away, so Hurney looked smarter for drafting him.

So there are some surprises like that. What isn't a surprise is that Cam Newton is looking like the best draft pick Hurney has ever made, followed closely by Julius Peppers. Here are some quick hits, and then the full data is after the jump.

By round:
Round 1, 9 total picks for an average score of 107.3, with a grade of 71.9% against the baseline.
Round 2, 10 total picks for an average score of 48.9, with a grade of 38.2% against the baseline.
Round 3, 16 total picks for an average score of 47.0, with a grade of 44.0% against the baseline.
Round 4, 9 total picks for an average score of 18.4, with a grade of 21.5% against the baseline.
Round 5, 13 total picks for an average score of 25.4, with a grade of 39.7% against the baseline.
Round 6, 11 total picks for an average score of 17.4, with a grade of 40.8% against the baseline.
Round 7, 15 total picks for an average score of 20.8, with a grade of 97.5% against the baseline.

1) Cam Newton, 173.3
2) Julius Peppers, 161.0
3) Jordan Gross, 136.1
4) Jon Beason, 135.7
5) Ryan Kalil, 128.3
6) Chris Gamble, 112.8
7) Charles Godfrey, 96.5
8) Will Witherspoon, 95.8
9) Travelle Wharton, 95.5
10) Sherrod Martin, 87.7

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------WARNING: There's Math inside!-----

How do you judge a draft pick?

It's a simple question, but it's one that the answer to can make or break a career. In any given year, you have the shot at making the right selection six to eight times, and if you do you look like a genius. If you don't, you're going to hear about it for years to come. And if you miss too often, you're not going to be around to hear about it.

Even when you do make a decent selection, the odds are that you'll still get your fair share of criticism from fans who are sick of missed tackles, dropped balls, poor blocks, or any other mistake that a player may make long after they've been drafted. So what if you're not a coach, you're still responsible. As a GM, it's your job to somehow accurately predict future performance. You need to just know that a quarterback taken in the sixth round will eventually become a seven time pro-bowler.

Ever wonder how they do it? Who can possibly become an expert on the thousands of college players who want to make an NFL roster every year? The answer is, no one. Every NFL franchise has a staff dedicated to college scouting. They're the ones at all the college games, big and small, compiling stats and notes, looking for the sure thing and diamonds in the rough. And come draft time, they provide input and film to the GM and head coach, who narrow down the pool and then do their own evaluations, interviews, and rankings. And then they do what the Owner tells them to, right?

So a lot of people participate in the process. At the end of the day though, it's the GM who makes the decision. And that makes sense, as the GM is also the guy who hires the scouts and the coaches. It's the GM who really does have the ultimate responsibility on which players are drafted.

So how do you rate his performance? Obviously you need to find a way to fairly judge a pick. Lets look at that after the jump...

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This past summer, we took a stab at predicting what the new offense would look like. The Panthers had hired almost nothing but Coryell disciples in the off season, so it was pretty easy to guess that they would be installing that offense. 

That first article and the follow-up took that assumption and ran with it, making some rather bold predictions on what we would see in 2011. 

One thing we didn't guess was that Cam Newton would be as good as he is. Let's take a moment of silence to reflect on just how lucky we were that he declared, and that Hurney had the guts to draft him...

As far as the offense, we were dead on. The Panthers run a beautiful implementation of Air Coryell, the original West Coast Offense. They're fifth in the league in total offense, and that's largely driven by their potent passing attack.

Carolina is first in the league in passing plays that go for over 20 yards, they're fourth in yards per attempt, and they're fifth in passing yards per game. Note that the teams ahead of them are led by QBs like Brees, Rodgers, Brady, and Rivers.

Take another moment of silence to consider how QBs generally get a lot better in their second year...

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And the season is FINALLY among us.  No more vanilla game plans, no more roster games, no more speculation on who's starting or what color shoelaces they're wearing, today we find out.  And it's about time.

One of the worst things about coming off a miserable season is the mood of the fan base.  When you were 9-7 a year before, people are excited and thinking about what needs to happen right for the home team to be a blowout favorite in the Super Bowl.

That's what they've been doing across the NFC South this past week.

In Carolina, on the other hand, it's a question of what we have to do right to merely be bad (4 or 5 wins), instead of miserable.

I think the first step there is, don't try and be like Arizona, but I'm getting a little ahead of myself.  Here are the three biggest worries that I've read about this past week.

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On the Giants first offensive series of the game, they probably left the field feeling pretty good about themselves.  Their defense had scored a touchdown, and had just held Carolina to a three-and-out after sacking Clausen on third down.  

Manning drew blood with a nice completion to Hakeem Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw scampered around the right end for 16, and then the defense tested the middle.  That was a mistake, as Corvey Irvin met Bradshaw behind the line, resulting in a loss of a yard.  Two incomplete passes later, the Giants were punting.

In their next drive, they started out with Ahmad Bradshaw following the right guard for just two yards before he was brought down by Dan Connor and Omar Gaither.  The short run set the stage for a Giants three-and-out, as Manning followed the run with an incomplete pass and a "gimme" completion for five yards.

On their next series, New York decided to test the middle.  Bradshaw ran straight up the gut for two yards before Connor stuffed him.  Then the Giants got a little fancy, with a draw up the middle.  This time Corvey Irvin and James Anderson closed the door, allowing three yards and setting the Giants up for their second three-and-out.

The Giants got cute again at the very beginning of the second quarter, sending D. Ware up the middle in another draw, and this one was stuffed by Jordan Senn, allowing just two yards and producing the defense's third consecutive third-and-out.

By this time, you could guess what the Giants were thinking.  The Panthers weakest link on defense last season was at the Tackle position.  And this year our best FA signing was a DT who went down to injury in the abbreviated Training Camp.  So it's no surprise that they planned on attacking our middle.

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There's been a lot of talk this off season about Rod Chudzinski's offense and how we're finally going to look like an NFL team out there. And this Saturday, fans will finally get to see it in action.

The offense has fundamentally changed. It's not just a different system, with different language and different alignments. It's a different philosophy entirely, and that will make for a very different style when the players take the field.

The 2010 Panthers ran an Erhardt-Perkins style offense. The 2011 will be running a flavor of Coryell (the original West Coast Offense). And volumes can be written (and have...) on how these two offenses differ in theory. But this article is about their practical applications, and what the average fan may notice.

An Offense starts at the QB position, and that's where the first difference will be noticed. Coryell places a premium on QB protection. Consider the Panthers history at the position during the Fox era. From 2002-2006, the Panthers' starting QB missed three games due to injury, and that injury was a broken thumb caused by hitting a helmet during a passing play. More after the jump...

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In Part One of the "Guess what the offense will look like next year" article, I made the bold proclamation that we were going to shift to an Air Coryell offense.  I did that based on a hunch, which was brought on by the fact that every single offensive coach we have has direct experience in that system, and many don't have experience in any other.  So maybe I'm going out on a limb, but I don't think so.

I then went over what the offense is about, how it differs from Erhardt-Perkins (That's the offense that Jeff Davidson thought he was running here), and finally I covered the Norv Turner variant of it.  Now all that's left is imagining what it will be, when our players are asked to run it.

So what will it look like, implemented in Carolina?  Will it be like a Dan Henning offense, or a Mike Martz greatest show on (natural) turf?  The answer is Henning, and not just because we don't have a hall of fame QB and all-pro receivers.  But the Henning version isn't a bad thing really.  And it will look like an exciting version of the Henning, one that's very controlled yet chaotic in the number of formations and pre-snap movements.

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Last week we looked at the defense, and made some guesses as to what it would look like under Sean McDermott and Ron Rivera.  That wasn't too terribly difficult, as both of these men have histories that included running defenses.

This week is a little different.  The Panthers have a defensive head coach with no prior experience, and their offensive coordinator was last seen coaching Tight Ends in San Diego.  There's not a lot to go on when we turn our attention to the offensive side of the ball.  The best we can hope to do is look at our personnel and their collective experience, combine it with what's been said, and put that together with what was done in Cleveland when Ron Chudzinski was the offensive coordinator there.  Once we do that, everything clicks and we have a pretty good idea of what we'll be running next year.

Let's end the suspense before it starts.  Presumably, Chud has picked up some things along the way from the offensive coordinators he worked for.  In his career, he's worked under Terry Robiski, Cam Cameron, and Clarence Shelmon.  All three are advocates of the Coryell offense, and in particular the Norv Turner variant.  Coincidentally, Norv Turner is the current head coach of the Chargers, Chud's last team.  So if you're wondering, the odds are pretty good that this is what we see in Carolina next year.

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One of the best things about the off-season is the speculation. We get to think about Free Agency, we get to think about the Draft, and we get to think about all those Training Camp battles and who will start.

And although it really stinks to be 2-14, this year we do get a little bonus. Thanks to the coaching change, we now get to speculate on what the new coaches will do. And that's kind of what this post is about.

Note that there's no inside knowledge at work here. Everything laid out before you is based on the history of Rivera and his coordinators. And as such, it could be wildly wrong. Or it could be spot-on.

It's probably somewhere in between, but it's worth talking about anyway because frankly, speculation is fun. So let's speculate.

And let's start by thinking about the Defense.

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Let me tell you about a Quarterback prospect, and I'm not going to use my words to do it.  Instead, I'm going to use the words of draft junkies around the web.  Some get paid by major wire services, some are literally guys who sit in their basement and just write what comes to mind.  But all are fairly well respected, and do their research.

The first thing I'm going to tell you about is the offense he runs.  Most hyped up college QBs nowadays seem to come from the spread.  Not this guy--he's in a west coast offense in a pro-style set.  He also isn't surrounded by a ton of talent--there's some but nothing like what you're going to find on an SEC team.  The vast, vast majority of this guy's snaps were taken under center, not from the shotgun. 

Because of that experience, it's widely thought that he will "be able to start mastering the finer points of the NFL from the first day instead of needing to work on fundamentals."  Indeed, he's "established himself as the best pocket passer in this draft." 

"He is a classic drop-back quarterback with above-average accuracy, good mechanics and a very quick release."  "He has been known as a 'once in a generation' talent, and the 'LeBron James of football,' as early as his freshmen year in high school. As a junior, he improved in every statistical category, proving almost unstoppable, regularly carving up opposing defenses."

About that accuracy, he "has the incredible ability to complete just about every pass of 15 yards or less. Puts very good touch and zips on his short and intermediate throws. When his deep pass is on, he leads the receiver well. Needs to improve his trajectory on deep throws. His throws tend to come in low on deeper passes. Can throw on the move well and his passes don't lose a lot of velocity. Completed 68 percent of his passes as a junior."

"He possesses an adequate-but-not-elite arm with a quick delivery, but lacks velocity on his deep throws, which tends to make them float at times. He has good accuracy on his short-to-intermediate throws, and can squeeze the ball between defenders from that range."  "He owns two of the longest streaks in school history -- 132 pass attempts without an interception in 2008 and another long stretch of 160 tosses without having a pass picked in 2009."

He's described as a "Fiery, emotional leader ... willing to demand the best from his teammates. Intelligent player able to handle any offense. Tough runner who played through broken toe on his plant (right) foot in 2009. Maturity has been a question mark in the past, and he can get salty with coaches and teammates during a game, but no major concerns have arisen."

And about his decision making, everyone's in agreement.  Check this quote out--"Virtually playing mistake free football, [he has] enjoyed a tremendous junior season, throwing for 3,772 yards and 28 touchdowns while only getting picked off 4 times." 

Wow, right? 

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For the second time in their short history the Panthers have gone from mediocre to truly awful in the space of one season.  A 2-14 record doesn't leave a lot to be excited about, particularly when your team is setting records for futility.

So naturally, there's not a lot to get excited about in Carolina.  Sure, we're going to get a shiny new coach.  But Cam Cameron was once shiny and new in Miami, and so was Mike Mularkey when he took over the Bills.  A new coach is fun to talk about, and once we know who it is you can bet that will happen.

And we're going to be equally excited about our first draft pick.  The top pick any year is expected to be a star, and there's a legitimate shot that the Panthers will get a once in a generation player as well.

But for now, let's take a look at the season past, what we saw, what we learned, and some things that we might want to keep in mind.

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Back in week seven, the Panthers were looking for their first win of the season.  They were hosting the 49ers, who had won the week before and were trying to build some momentum for the rest of the season.

The fourth quarter started with a field goal that tied the game at 13, then on Carolina's next drive Matt Moore threw a pick-six that left the Panthers down by a touchdown.  The teams went back and forth until the two minute warning, when Carolina finally scored, knotting the game at 20.

The Niners started the next drive on their 20, and two plays later they were on the 43, and the life was draining out of the stadium as fans braced for another late game collapse and a loss.  Instead, backup QB David Carr threw an interception, and the Carolina offense took the field once more with 1:08 left.

Then Matt Moore stepped up in the pocket and threw a 35 yard strike to rookie receiver Brandon LaFell.  That turned out to be the play of the game; the catch put the Panthers in position for a final field goal that gave them their first win.

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Ok, let's get something out of the way here. The Panthers win against the Cards on Sunday.

If you're a real fan, you have to believe that. Not only are the Cards just as pathetic as the Cats, but there are a few more elements at play.

• We've got the home field.
• We remember our last playoff game.
• We've got a team that's still playing hard.
• We've got a coach who really wants to win a game so he doesn't have to share the "Worst team ever" title with Seiffert.
• They're a west coast team playing at 1:00 on Sunday

And we've got the first overall pick at risk, which in this season means we have to win. After all, we're losing at everything we try, why not lose at the draft too?

So whether or not you want the Panthers to win, if you're up on the trends you almost have to predict one on Sunday.  And if we do win, the big loss is that Cincinnatti also has two wins, which means that the tiebreaker for the top pick in the 2011 draft is determined by Strength of Schedule.

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I have two tickets for Sundays game that I can't use, and I would like to give them away to a deserving fan.  They're upper deck on the 25 yard line, not too far up though, and need to be picked up in the Concord area.

If you want to use these, drop a note in the comments.

For the first time in the John Fox era, there's no hope in November.  And to a lot of fans, December can't be over soon enough.  This is easily the most dismal season in Panther history, even more so than the 2001 edition that saw the team finish out with 15 straight losses.

That squad had it's share of problems, but at least it fielded a team on both sides of the ball.  While I believe this team has more talent, I'm starting to come around to Scott Fowler's view that it would lose to that squad.  This may be the worst Panther team in franchise history.

And we all know why.  It's not just that Richardson went cheap all of the sudden.  The Panthers don't have the lowest payroll in the league, they're not even close.

It's not that Richardson cut all the veterans, although that's part of it.  Most of the significant cuts took place on the defensive side of the ball, and that's not where the problem is.

The main issue is that the Panthers went into the season with a lame duck head coach who hasn't been given as much ability to shape his team as he has in the past.  The Panthers are a young team with a coach who likes veterans.

Fox hasn't lost the team, but that doesn't mean he's reaching them like he has in the past.  And the lack of a veteran QB is just killing the team.  Right now, three wins looks like a reasonable expectation for how this edition of the Panthers finishes.

Unfortunately, that probably won't be enough to guarantee a shot at a true franchise quarterback, not with the Bills, 49ers and Cowboys out there.  And that's going to be important sooner than you might realize.

Check out the list of coaches currently employed but in the hot seat after the jump...

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At this point, it's pretty clear that the Panthers are rebuilding.  I'm sure that management talked itself into thinking that Moore was the answer at QB and we would make a playoff run, and so did a lot of us fans.  But Moore isn't, the Panthers aren't, and now the season is all about finding something that works which can be built on for future success.

It's not like Carolina is the first team that's gone through this.  New Orleans had their 3-13 season in 2005 that netted them Reggie Bush in the draft, Drew Brees in Free Agency, and Sean Payton as the new coach.

Atlanta brought in Mike Smith, Michael Turner, and drafted Matt Ryan after going 4-12 in 2007.  And Tampa went in for rebuilding last year, bringing in Raheem Morris to do much what the Panthers just did.  He purged them of their veterans and drafted Josh Freeman to build around.

Most teams have to rebuild at one point or another.  And it almost never involves keeping the same coach around.

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No one bats 1.000 when making decisions that depend on how well other people do their jobs.  And that's especially true in sports, where General Managers have to assemble a collection of individuals that they hope combine to become greater than their sum, and win more than they lose.

In the NFL, people love to point at the New England Patriots as a model franchise that somehow does everything right.  This is the same franchise that over the past decade has drafted 12 cornerbacks, and signed 10 more as free agents.  Not even the mighty Patriots have it all figured out, especially in the defensive secondary.

But each year GMs like the Carolina Panthers' Marty Hurney consult with their coaches, owners, scouts, astrologists, and ouija boards; and they attempt to cobble together the perfect blend of talent that will make a deep playoff run in January.  And each year most GMs miss the mark.

I'm going to come out and say it right now--the Panthers are not going to the Super Bowl.  I don't mind saying that, because if I'm wrong I figure no one will want to take time away from celebrating to tell me they told me so, and I don't mind saying that because it's pretty apparent to anyone paying attention that we're not looking at a playoff run this year.  

And it's an easy prediction because teams that are rebuilding tend to miss the playoffs.

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This week's edition has James the Aussie and Cyberjag playing the parts of Homer and Hater.  You can figure out who is who for yourself. :)

Well Homer, Tampa Bay comes to Charlotte this week.  Normally this would be a get-well type of game for the Panthers, but that assumes that there's still some life left in their season.  After watching them in New York, I'm not quite sure.  Richardson's plan to save money this year obviously includes saving the airfare and lodging involved in any potential playoff destinations.

Oh Hater, how misguided you are. To the Panthers last week was just another season opener, to the Giants it was a massive, all encompassing quest to regain their dignity after getting embarrassed by us last year. They threw everything they had at us, and still needed a meltdown at the QB position to pull it out. This week: It's very, very different and the Bucs will learn that.

Did you see the scores last week?  The Bucs handed a good Cleveland Browns team a loss, and did so in impressive fashion.  They got down early, but once they settled down they became the anti-Panthers.  Instead of abandoning the run in a frenzied panic because they fell behind by a few points, they tightened up the defense, stayed with their offensive plan, and pulled out the victory in the fourth quarter.  Amazingly enough, when the game ended (a game that they trailed most of the day), they had actually run more than they passed.

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A lot has been made lately over the fact that the Panthers have 35 draft picks on their 53 man roster.  That's a high number for any team, and it's testament to the good scouting and opportunistic drafting done by the Panthers over the past few years.  

Who thought that selecting Ryan Kalil made sense when they had just signed pro-bowl center Justin Hartwig from the Titans?  And why Dan Connor when we had Jon Beason?  The Panthers didn't care, they took opportunities like that when they were presented, and now they have a great colletion of home-grown talent.

For most teams, the draft is more miss than hit.  Core parts of the roster are gotten there, but then they augment them with high-priced free agents.  Sometimes it works out.  Atlanta's quite happy with Michael Turner, and though they didn't get the same results with Mike Peterson last year they were willing to try again with the signing of Dunte Robinson this year.

But for every Michael Turner there seem to be several Albert Haynesworths.  Washington loves high profile free agents, but they haven't had much success with them.  Ask Chicago how well Jay Cutler has worked out, or see what they think of Julius Peppers after this season.  

Typically, the best way to build a roster is through the draft.  And the Panthers have proven to be as good as any in that regard.

But after those 35, who are the other guys?  And how did they get here?  What kind of impact will they have?  This article takes a look at those questions.  For the Carolina Panthers, here are "The Other Guys."

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So the preseason is finally, mercifully over.  Now we get six days that will feel like 60 before the games are real and and the Panthers take the field.  We've had four games to watch them go through the motions, and it's time to talk about what we've learned.

The defense is great.  That's the beginning and end of that story.  No worries, we're happy, healthy, talented, and obviously ready for a great year.

And then there's the offense.  Boy, the offense is bad...

No matter who the quarterback is, the only reliable prediction you can make about this unit based on the last four games is that there will be a lot of punting going on in 2010.  Just look at the box scores, the only touchdowns scored were by the defense or special teams. 

Through four pre-season games, the Panthers averaged a paltry 8.2 points per game.  They were also last in the league in passing, total yards, yards per play, and first downs.  This was not an effective offensive unit, by any definition.

The play calling was just awful.  Where were the power runs on third and short?  Instead we got passes to covered receivers, overthrown balls, sweeps, and just plain bad execution.  It's no surprise that we averaged only 11.8 first downs a game.

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The Panthers held a full-pads scrimmage with the Steelers last night in a game designed to show the league why moving to 18 games is a good thing.  There wasn't a lot to write home about, as Fox held out the starters for most of the game.

But the reserves all played like they're fighting for a roster spot, and in several cases you could see why.  When you're watching these sorts of game you may find yourself wondering how these guys made it into the league.  With some of them it's painfully obvious that this is the closest they're ever going to get to playing on Sunday.

It's hard to watch, but sometimes you have to take one for the team, and be a fan no matter what.  I watched the game from start to finish, although I was sorely tempted to turn it off after the half. 

At the end I felt like we had put a collection of college players in Panther uniforms and sent them out there without a playbook.  It wasn't pretty, but on the other hand it was football.  There was beer and nachos, and bad football is better than no football.

So here are my random thoughts on what we saw last night.  Have fun picking them apart, and add your own.  We've got lots of speculating to do before cuts. :)

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The good folks over at Pro Football Focus published the offensive and defensive results of every play of every game last year.  They included where the players lined up, who did what, and whether or not they blitzed.  Here are some fun defensive stats to help pass the time between now and kickoff.

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