Below the jump are a review of my first round predictions, my second round predictions and a general thread for everyone to continue prognosturbating.

Continue reading this post »

Much has been made of Guy Boucher's implementation of a 1-3-1 neutral zone checking scheme. Below the jump I'll explain how the 1-3-1 works, why the Bolts use it,  how they've used it against the Caps, and how to beat it. 

Before the jump, I'd like to acknowledge the work of Fehr and Balanced, who provided all of the videos for this FanPost as well as numerous content suggestions and edits. Any errors are my own. 

Continue reading this post »

Below the jump are my playoff predictions and a general thread for everyone to prognosturbate.

Continue reading this post »

After the discussion about playoff seeding yesterday, I decided to do some research about how different seeds have fared in the playoffs since the lockout. I posted the numbers in the Clips thread, but it was pretty late and I'm interested to hear what more folks think, and I'd rather not take a second Clips thread to the margin. I've also added the data since the NHL went to Conference-based, rather than Division-based playoffs. The results and a poll below the jump.

Continue reading this post »

About this time last year, I made several attempts at coming up with an equivalent to baseball's "Pythagorean Expectation." For those of you unfamiliar with the term, it was invented by baseball stat guru Bill James, and it describes the relationship between runs scored/runs allowed and wins/losses, then derives "standings" from a simple equation. In this post, I attempt to do the same thing for hockey. For those of you that I haven't lost with the words: Pythagorean, stat, derive, equation and James, a table and full explanation follow after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Elliote Friedman's most recent "30 Thoughts" column described the changes that Bruce Boudreau has made to the Washington Capitals' system to shore it up defensively, including implementing a neutral-zone trap. Friedman noted that one reason behind this change was that Boudreau's high-pressure, man-to-man checking system had a tendency to allow small mistakes to turn into major breakdowns, as some people have pointed out before. After the break, I'll use some video screen shots to diagram a breakdown that resulted in a goal. After that, I'll show how the play could have turned out differently. Finally, I'll conclude by diagramming the Caps' "new" system.

Continue reading this post »

Recognizing that the post below is too long for many, I've condensed the main points into a bulleted "executive summary." The full post, now with video, is below the jump.

• The Caps seemingly suffer more from mental lapses than other teams. This tendency has been particularly evident during the first periods of games in their current series with Montreal.
  
• I argue that the Caps don't suffer more from mental lapses than other teams; rather the aggressive nature of Boudreau's system increases the risk that inevitable ebbs in focus will result in goals against.
• Defensive systems like Jacques Martin's don't minimize lapses - they attempt to mitigate the consequences of lapses.
• Montreal's strategy in this series has been clear - come out aggressively in the first period to take advantage of the Caps' early lack of focus. In games 1, 2, 5 and 6 of this series, the Canadiens jumped out to early leads and managed to use their defensive system and great goaltending from Jaroslave Halak to hold onto them in three out of four instances. 
• The Caps' coaching staff and players need to ensure that they counter Montreal's early surge without surrendering a lead. This will require focused intensity on behalf of the players, and a willingness to modify the systems play on behalf of the coaching staff.

Continue reading this post »

From this week's Season Ticket "Planholder Update:"

In consideration of other Caps fans, please wait for a stoppage in play before leaving or returning to your seats. Also, please avoid obstructing the view of other Caps fans seated behind and around you. (Emphasis added)

Nice try, but no cigar. More below the jump...

Continue reading this post »

Who got the better of today's trades based on the contributions of the players involved and their salaries? More below the jump...

Continue reading this post »

For all three of you who I haven't yet bored to death with Excel and math, after the break will be my breakdown of the current standings according to Expected Points per what I'm calling "D'ohboy's Theorem." I'll also include the same table using my original theorem that used PP, PK and 5v5.

Continue reading this post »

After our discussion the other day, I went back to the drawing board to come up with a Pythagorean Theorem for hockey. Beware, for below the jump, there be graphs and math!

Continue reading this post »

After the jump is my first attempt at creating a "Pythagorean Theorem" for hockey.

Continue reading this post »

Has McPhee offered a bald Swede to the Leafs so they can finally replace Sundin?

Continue reading this post »

This weekend I headed up to Hershey to get a fix for my hockey jones and to "scout" some of the Caps' prospects in the crucible of the Calder Cup Playoffs. If you haven't been up to Hershey yet, I highly recommend it. The drive is a little long, but you can make a weekend out of it and see two games. The best part is how affordable it is: lower-level tickets are under $25, and a draft beer is under $6.

This post is going to be a bit on the long side, so I'll provide some organization up-front so you can skip around and read what you like. First, I only paid attention to the top prospects - I've only got one set of eyes, so I focused them on Bouchard, Bourque, Carlson, Neuvirth, Osala and Perrault. (If you have specific questions about anyone else, I'm happy to answer them - if I don't know, I'll just say so.)

Today's part one will be Bouchard, Bourque and Carlson. Tomorrow's part two will be Neuvirth, Osala and Perrault. To conclude, part three will be my impressions about the organization as a whole. I'll break the players down in alphabetical order. To try to make comparison easier, I'll rate the skaters in nine categories: Skating, Shot, Puckhandling, Passing, Defensive Awareness/Responsibility, Physical Strength, Conditioning, Hockey Sense and Intangibles. (I'll just write up my impressions of Neuvirth) These ratings will be from 1-10, with 10 being the top score. I could BS you and give every player a rating for every category, but that would be silly - if I didn't get a solid impression, they'll just get an asterisk. After that, I'll give a little write-up.

*A brief disclaimer: I'm not a professional scout. I'm an avid hockey fan who has played and coached a bit. My impressions are only based on two games, so they should be taken with a grain of salt.*

Francois Bouchard (Age: 21) Reg. Season: 64GP, 15G, 20A, 35P, +18

Playoffs: 11GP, 1G, 2A, 3P, Even

Skating: 7

Shot: *

Puckhandling: *

Passing: *

Def. Awareness: *

Physical Strength: 6

Conditioning: *

Hockey Sense: *

Intangibles: *

It was tough to get a read on Bouchard. He only played in Sunday's game, and he didn't get much ice time. He acquitted himself well during his time on the ice, but didn't really stand out in any particular way. I rated him a 7 at skating because, while he seemed to have some jump, he was a fair bit slower than the elite skaters, such as Perrault. His strength along the boards wasn't terribly impressive, and from my vantage point, he didn't look nearly 6ft/180lbs. To my eyes, he looked more like a tall 5'10.

Chris Bourque (Age: 23) Reg. Season: 69GP, 21G, 52A, 73P, +10

Playoffs: 13GP, 2G, 11A, 13P, +1

Skating: 9

Shot: 8

Puckhandling: 7

Passing: 8

Def. Awareness: 9

Physical Strength: 8

Conditioning: 10

Hockey Sense: 10

Intangibles: 10

Bourque was a revelation. Simply put, over the course of two games, he was the best player on the ice for either team, hands down. It may not have shown on the scoresheet, but Bourque was everywhere, constantly creating scoring chances. I must admit, I was surprised. From watching him during call-ups and looking at his stats, I expected to see a good, but not excellent player. After this weekend, I'm left scratching my head as to why the Caps didn't call him up during the playoffs. Despite his size, he repeatedly won physical battles along the boards. He may be short, but he's built just like his father in 8/10 scale - in other words, a brick s--thouse on skates. He's strong and his low center of gravity and strong lower-body ensure that he ins't easily knocked off the puck. (Now he just needs to cinch up his helmet a little tighter.) He has a hard shot that he gets off very quickly, which is why both Woods and Boudreau have played him at the point on the first powerplay unit. I only rated it an 8, however, because it doesn't seem to be terribly accurate. He'd probably be well-served to ease off the velocity a bit and try to pick some corners.

What really stood out about Bourque wasn't his skating or his shot, or even his superior conditioning (he was still skating and battling like mad in the third period of back-to-back games). No, his greatest assets are his hockey sense and his "intangibles." Like another son of a former NHL great from his draft year, Paul Stastny, Bourque makes up for an obvious shortcoming (for Stastny it's his skating, for Bourque it's his size) by being smarter than everyone else on the ice.

Gretzky's dad used to say, "don't skate to the puck, skate to where the puck is going to be." Bourque is always where the puck is going to be. I simply stopped counting the number of times that he was the first player to a loose puck. He's almost always in the right position. He helped his linemates win several faceoffs by anticipating where the puck was going and beating the P-Bruins forwards to it.

Watching him in isolation without the puck, I was struck by how often he was all alone in high-scoring areas. He just had a knack for being in the right place at the right time - it was uncanny. This "hockey sense" also carries over to the defensive end - he's very defensively responsible, and he made a solid play backing up a pinching defenseman to shut down an offensive rush.

Like me, you might find yourself wondering why his stats aren't better, or why he didn't look all that impressive when called up. My guess is that it's due in part to his linemates. When I saw him, he was primarily playing with a mixture of gritty guys (Beagle and Reid, primarily), but not with the big scorers like Osala or Giroux. Also, having great hockey sense doesn't amount to much if your linemates don't share it with you. Often, Bourque would be in the perfect position, but he wouldn't get the pass, or when he would, the window would have closed. Stastny noted this when his statistics suddenly went through the roof when he joined the Avalanche - "smart" players need to play with other smart and talented guys in order to fully exploit their skillset, whereas guys with overwhelming physical talents (such as Ovechkin), can stand out regardless of the circumstance. (Just as an aside, I think Detroit's success can be tied in large part to their ability to identify "smart" players and put them all together into a system that utilizes their combined hockey sense.)

The one big flaw that I saw in Bourque's game is that he hurries himself at times. He's so used to doing everything fast (probably to avoid getting hit), that he rushes passes and shots when a bit of patience might be called for. To make the jump to the next level, he might need to heed the old adage, "slow is smooth and smooth is fast."

Ultimately, I found Bourque both fascinating and frustrating to watch. Why frustrating? Because I couldn't help but picture him replacing Fleischmann in the Caps' playoff lineup and providing a much-needed boost. If the Caps can't find a place for Bourque on the roster next year (and not just on the fourth line), it will be a shame. He has the capability to step in and put up a 15/20/35 stat line right now, and possibly more than that if he plays with more talented players.

John Carlson (Age: 19) Reg. Season (OHL): 59GP, 16G, 60A, 76P, +23

Playoffs (AHL): 9GP, 1G, 0A, 1P, +1

Skating: 8

Shot: 8

Puckhandling: 8

Passing: 9

Def. Awareness: 9

Physical Strength: 9

Conditioning:10

Hockey Sense: 9

Intangibles: *

After watching Carlson, I was tempted just to rate him 9s and 10s across the board. He's that good. He wasn't perfect - he made a couple of youthful errors of exuberance: one was an ill-advised attempt to glove down a clear at the offensive blue line, and the other was a mistimed hip-check: both led to scoring chances against. Other than that, he was mighty impressive. He has a smooth and powerful skating stride, and his transitions (front-back-front) are quick. There were several loose pucks that looked like they would be a close footrace between Carlson and a P-Bruin. He won every race, and they weren't nearly as close as they might have been. With the exception of the missed hip-check, his lateral movement was equally impressive. His play in the defensive zone was responsible - he saved a sure goal against in Game 2 with a smart stick on the goal line.

For all of that, his most outstanding attributes were his strength/conditioning, and his outlet passes. Despite being just 19, I never saw Carlson get muscled off the puck. Admittedly, Providence's forwards are on the small side, but some, such as Jeremy Reich, present a physical challenge. After watching Alzner get pushed around during his brief NHL stint, I have to say I was pleasantly surprised by Carlson's strength (although reports from the development camp last summer suggested that he was a bit of a gym rat). His outlet passes were consistently quick and sharp, particularly in contrast with the other Bears. His composure with the puck was equally impressive, regardless of his age or level of experience.

Carlson could use to be a little more physical in front of his net - I'd like to see him initiate contact and develop a bit of a "mean streak," but perhaps that will come with age and experience. He seemed willing to take a wrist shot and get it on net rather than blast a slapshot into a defender, but otherwise he didn't really impress me with his shots. (This was a characteristic endemic to all the Bears players, and it's something I'll discuss in a later entry.) I wish that Alzner had been healthy so that I could have compared them both against similar levels of competition. Regardless, I'd guess that Carlson plays at least a handful of games for the Caps next year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he were called up late in the season and stayed. He doesn't look as though he has too much left to learn in the AHL. He'll go through some growing pains in the NHL, but his upside would likely be worth it. If he's not up with the big club next year, it's more likely because there isn't space on the roster, rather than due to his lack of ability.

That's it for tonight. I'll try to write part two tomorrow. If you have any questions or comments, please let me know.

I'll be heading up to Hershey to soothe my hockey jones and to get a look at some of the young 'uns down on the farm. I'll be staying in Lancaster, and driving into Hershey on Saturday and Sunday night.

Given that I'll be "scouting" some of the players for a future FanPost on here, I should have purchased seats up high in the 200-level, but curiosity and the draw of novelty got the better of me (I sit in the 400-level at the VC), so I'll be sitting further down toward the glass in section 126.

First, is anyone else headed up to the game? Second, can anyone recommend any restaurants/bars in the area? It's my first time venturing up in that direction, so any suggestions are welcome.

If anyone is headed up there, hit me up in the comments and we'll meet up for a beer.

Just thought I'd throw something up so we could discuss the games tonight. I don't know about you guys, but I can't just quit hockey cold turkey. I need some methadone.

(Apparently, this needs to be 75 words. I can't believe that I'm actually having a hard time making the minimum word limit. Hmmm.)

I don't know about you folks, but personally, I'm rooting for Detroit and Boston. I think a Detroit-Chicago conference final would be amazing.

Now this is just getting creepy. A few weeks ago, I made a FanPost suggesting that Pierre LeBrun of ESPN.com had "borrowed" an idea from a comment I made to write an article about the similarities of this Capitals team and the Quebec Nordiques of the early 1990s.

He's at it again, and this time the similarities are even more stark. Here is "How Washington can win, Point 2" from his "Keys to Game 7" article this morning.

2. Been there, done that and really want to do it again
You can argue that whatever happened in Game 6, or any of the first-round elimination games when the Caps erased a 3-1 series deficit against the New York Rangers, means doodley-squat. But the Caps think it means a lot, and maybe that's all that matters.

The Capitals are 7-1 in potential elimination games dating back to Game 82 of last season (a game the Caps had to win to qualify for the playoffs). Then there's the matter of playing in three straight Game 7s dating back to the first round of last postseason, when Washington lost in overtime to Philadelphia at home.

"We're aware of what to expect," Caps defenseman Mike Green said Tuesday. "I think that Game 7, it gets us excited. We seem to play good in those situations and hopefully that's the situation tomorrow night."

The Penguins have not played in a seventh game since the end of the lockout, which might become a slight factor in favor of the Capitals, but Pittsburgh did stave off elimination in last season's Stanley Cup finals by winning Game 5 in triple overtime in Detroit.

Still, throughout this series, we in the media have often cited the Pens' recent Cup finals experience as a factor in why they might defeat the youthful Capitals. Now, with it all on the line, it's Washington that seems to have the edge in experience, for whatever it's worth.

First, the premise of this point is exactly the same as a post I made yesterday. Second, he's even using the same title (or a close approximation).

The first time I suggested that he had "borrowed" my idea, it was pretty tongue in cheek. I thought it absurd that he might have actually been inspired by something I wrote on here. This time? I'm not so sure. I'll leave it to my fellow Rink Rats to judge.

By my count, this Caps team has played in two game sevens over the past two years, and has faced elimination seven times (games 5,6 and 7 vs. both the Flyers and the Rangers, and game 6 last night). In those seven games, the Caps are 6-1.

In contrast, the Crosby/Malkin Penguins have played in zero game sevens over the last three years, and have faced elimination only three times (2007 vs. the Senators, and games 5 and 6 vs. the Red Wings last year). In those three games, the Pens are 1-2.

Food for thought.

This was originally an email to a friend of mine, so I'm sorry if the formatting doesn't quite come through. Apologies for the length.

The emergence of Varlamov has really changed my view of the Caps. Yes, the Rangers were offensively inept, but he surrendered 7 goals in 6 games (and three of those were on Sunday). That's unbelievably good. The goals that did beat him were mostly lucky bounces or absolutely perfect shots. He made a few saves last night that were superb, and crucial, because the Caps were getting outplayed for much of the first and second periods.

Moreover, having Varly back there has changed how the Caps' defensemen play. They spend less time defending the initial shot and focus instead on clearing rebounds. With Theodore, I think they felt as though they had to defend the initial shot, because Theo might not make the save. With Varly, they know that he'll make the initial save, so all they have to do is police up the rebound. Every single Caps defenseman looked so much better over the last few games as a result because they're playing within themselves and the system. Jurcina was an absolute beast last night. Mike Green finally seems like himself after fighting off what was apparently a pretty bad flu virus. The Pothier-Erskine pair has been generally outstanding. Even when the Caps were pinned in their end for much of the second period, the Rangers generated essentially zero good scoring chances.

The Pens are a very, very interesting team. Malkin and Crosby are excellent players, and now that they're not stuck on the same line, they give the Penguins two solid scoring lines. The additions of Guerin and Kunitz were smart - they finally gave Crosby some wingers to play with. Gonchar is an excellent offensive defenseman, Orpik is sound defensively, and Scuderi and Gill are both serviceable penalty-killers. This is a team that made it to the Cup finals last year,  finished this season on a torrid streak and dispatched the Flyers in 6.

Look a little deeper and things don't look so rosy for the Pens. Starting with the big two up front, both Malkin and Crosby (moreso the latter than the former) have displayed a propensity to get distracted/flustered by the physical attention paid to them by opponents, and Ovechkin in particular. (Ovie, to his credit, is completely unflappable. I think he doesn't even have flaps.) Guerin and Kunitz were smart pickups, but their second set of wingers (a rotating cast of Fedotenko, Satan, an injured Sykora and other assorted flotsam and jetsam) are not exactly stellar.

Much has been made of the Caps' drop-off in defensive talent after Mike Green. Still, the Pens might have the only weaker defensive corps remaining in the playoffs. After Gonchar and Orpik, you've got small, very young, and error prone (Letang), big and slow (Gill), a decent, but replaceable 4-6 defenseman (Scuderi) and a quintessential journeyman (Mark Eaton). Oh, and the ghost of Phillipe Boucher. Honestly, I wouldn't trade the Caps defense straight-up for Pittsburgh's. I think they'll eventually come to rue giving up Whitney (although they did get a pretty good prospect back in Tangradi). As for Pittsburgh's role players, I think much of this comes down to Jordan Staal. If he performs like he did a couple years ago, they'll be tough to beat. However, it has been a while since he's shown that form and his playoff performance last year was underwhelming. However, the Pens do have more scoring depth in their bottom-six forwards (However, it must be noted that Kennedy, Cooke and Talbot have all spent some time filling in on the top lines and thereby upped their point totals. Still, they score more than their Caps counterparts.)

Speaking of underwhelming, this brings us to Pittsburgh's biggest Achilles' Heel, Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury was outstanding in last year's playoffs, but he's been only decent thus far in the playoffs, with one truly outstanding game and several so-so performances. He's shown some mental frailty in the past, much like Chris Osgood. There's no doubting his talent, but then, neither can you doubt the talent of Theodore, and look what's happened with him.

So, how does this break down?

Coaching: Advantage Caps. Bylsma has been good, but he just started coaching this team. It's tough to implement "your" system in just a couple months. Also, Boudreau was coaching before Bylsma was out of diapers (exaggeration). Boudreau's adjustments to his lines and the Caps' power-play, along with his call to use Varlamov were all brilliant. Bylsma's one major adjustment was to bench Letang and Sykora (who's not fully healthy) for Boucher and Satan in game 5. It didn't work and the Pens lost 3-0.

Top-line Forwards: Advantage Caps. This might seem crazy, given that the Pens have Crosby and Malkin, but the trio of Ovechkin, Semin and Backstrom is better, and fairly clearly so. The Pens have Guerin and Kunitz, but the Caps have Fedorov and Laich (depending on which line he's on). For me, the injury to Sykora, and the presence of Fedorov with all of his experience, tips this one toward the Caps.

Role-playing Forwards: Advantage Pens. Basically, by putting Laich on a top line and Staal on the third line, the Pens get this advantage. If you switch those out, I'd make the top-lines a push and give the role-players to the Caps. This is also much closer than it may seem. The return of Clark, and the emergence of Gordon and Steckel as great shut-down centers with excellent faceoff skills make the Caps much stronger at the bottom end than they were earlier in the season. Dupuis, Talbot, Cooke, Kennedy and Adams are all decent grinders, but none of them have the offensive upside of Fehr or Fleischmann, although they have produced more offense than the Caps' grinders (Bradley, Gordon, Steckel and Clark/Brashear).

Defense: Advantage Caps. Green>Gonchar. Poti>Letang (right now, anyway, maybe not in the near future). Jurcina, Erskine, Morrisonn=Orpik, Scuderi, Gill, Eaton. The obvious tie-breaker here is at the top-end, but the subtle advantage for the Caps is Brian Pothier. Forced into action by Jeff Schultz's injury after 14 months rehabbing from concussion symptoms, Pothier took a couple of games to get into the swing of the playoffs. Now, however, his smooth skating and his ability to start the transition game with accurate outlet passes have been a revelation, and something that the Caps were missing when Green wasn't on the ice. Paired with Erskine, his speed and puckhandling cover for Erskine's lack thereof, while Erskine's size and physicality make up for Pothier's lack thereof. A classic case of the whole being greater than the sum of the parts.

Power-Play: Advantage Caps. This one isn't as close as it should be, given the presence of Crosby, Malkin, Gonchar and Guerin on the Pens' PP. I think the Pens miss Malone, Whitney and Hossa here, badly. The Caps can be guilty of over-passing and trying too hard for the "perfect" play, but they still put up an 18.2 PP% against an amazingly good penalty killing team and a phenomenal goaltender. Boudreau's ability to coach really shone through here, as he juggled the PP lines to get more net presence (by giving Laich more PP time) and he added Tom Poti to give the Caps an accurate shot from the point.

Penalty-Kill: Push. The Caps put up slightly better numbers against the Rangers, but it was the Rangers after all. Their power play was abysmal. The Penguins had a good PK against the Flyers, but it's also hard to say how much of that was the Pens, and how much of that was the complete and total disappearance of Jeff Carter. The Pens had slightly better numbers during the regular season, but the Caps were decimated with injuries on their blue line for much of the season, and the presence of Theodore between the pipes probably didn't help matters.

Goaltending: Advantage Caps Push. (Poster's note: I originally gave this to the Caps due to Varlamov's stellar play thus far. However, on further consideration - with a nudge from Hooks Orpik - I've shifted this to even). This was the Caps' main area of weakness prior to the playoffs. It remains to be seen if Varlamov can keep playing at this level, but even if he gives the Caps a more-pedestrian .920 save percentage and a GAA under 2, the Caps could take the Cup. No joke. Fleury has been maddeningly inconsistent his entire career, and he has shown a propensity to get down on himself after bad goals. His play has been inconsistent enough, and he's suffered injuries that some Pens fans and hockey obervers were suggesting that he could be supplanted by Ty Conklin as recently as late last year. He has had one amazing game this playoffs, a couple of good games and a host of decent performances. Varlamov has been outstanding, albeit against weaker competition.

Intangibles: Advantage Caps. First, there's the obvious home-ice advantage. After seeing how loud the VC got last night, this is significant. My ears are still ringing.

Second, there's health. Knock on wood, but the Caps seem relatively healthy, especially now that Chris Clark is back in the lineup. This is a guy who's capable of scoring 20-25 goals/season while playing well in all three phases of the game. If he's healthy, his presence in the lineup is huge. The Pens' potential loss of Sykora really hurts. He provides speed and secondary scoring, and he has been a decent playoff performer in his career.

Third, there's faceoffs. The Pens put up good numbers in the first round (55.7%, good for tops in the playoffs). The Caps came in second, at 53.7%. However, over the course of the season, the Caps had the better numbers. The Flyers main centerman was playing with a bum shoulder (although a similar argument can be made that Chris Drury's injury inflated the Caps' numbers). I think that overall, the Caps are better on the draw.

Fourth, there's chemistry. I know that it's immeasurable, but it's clear that the Caps really do play for one another - there is a relationship among the players that is difficult to define, but clearly observable, even from the distance of a fan. This is not saying that the Pens hate each other, but rather that this Caps team has been together all year, and most of the same players were around last year. Many of these guys played together on Hershey's Calder Cup team. The Pens, on the other hand, saw a lot of turnover this last summer and have, in the last two years, traded away or released a slew of players like Whitney, Malone, Hossa, Roberts, Armstrong, Christensen, Conklin. The Pens looked utterly lost mid-way through the season and although their coach paid the price, ultimately the culprit was likely injuries and a lack of cohesion wrought by personnel turnover. The additions of Guerin and Kunitz surely helped on the ice, but Guerin doesn't exactly have a reputation as being a great locker-room presence, and any time a team has to import 2/3 of a top line at the trade deadline, you know there are serious holes in the roster.

Fifth, there's the effect of the previous round. Sometimes, you can read too much into the carryover effects from one round to the next, but I think this is a case where the Caps have an advantage. Looking back at the Caps' season and the times they struggled, if I were to craft a team to defeat the Caps, that team would look a hell of a lot like the New York Rangers. The Caps' strength was their PP; the Rangers' strength was their PK. The Caps struggled against teams that played strong in the neutral zone; the Rangers, thanks to Renney, were very strong at the center of the ice. The Caps struggled to score against good/hot goaltenders because of their inability to create or sustain traffic in front of the net; the Rangers had perhaps the best goalie in the Eastern Conference in Lundqvist. The Caps struggled against mediocre teams where they couldn't muster sufficient intensity; the Rangers were the very definition of mediocre. The Caps' ability to overcome their disadvantage and advance to the second round will make them a better team. They had to find that extra "playoff gear" - I was worried that they wouldn't find it until it was too late, but now that they have, it's a major advantage. Although the Flyers didn't exactly roll over for the Penguins, they did a remarkable job of self-destructing (what else is new?), and Martin Biron played to his talent level, which is to say, decently, but inconsistently. Between them, the Flyers' best two players, Richards and Carter, put up a 2/4/6 -6 stat line. The Penguins probably should have won that series in 5 games.

Sixth, the Caps can thank NBC for the long break between rounds. Normally, playing seven games can be a bit of a disadvantage, because you're exhausted coming out of the last game, and you only have a couple of days' rest before the next round. Thanks to NBC wanting the Caps and Penguins to play on Saturday, the Caps will have three full days of rest and practice before the beginning of the series, which is plenty of time to recharge.

So, what does this all add up to? In my eyes, this adds up to a Caps victory in 5 or 6 games. Crosby and Malkin are great, but their team lacks the Caps' high-end offensive depth, and their defense and Fleury are not good enough to make up for that. People tend to forget what the Pens have lost since last year: Hossa, Malone, Whitney, Roberts and Conklin. That's a lot of talent to lose, and Guerin and Kunitz don't replace that. The injury to Sykora hurts - even if he plays, a shoulder injury will hamper his shooting and puckhandling.

After the Caps went down 2-0, I started thinking about their roster moves this summer. After they went down 3-1, I was writing this season's post-mortem in my head. I wrote a couple of posts regarding the sheer improbability of a comeback in these circumstances. Many of you disagreed with me, essentially saying, "screw the numbers, I believe."

To all of you, I dedicate this. And I couldn't be happier to do it.

I will say this, though: the numbers weren't "wrong." What the Capitals have just done is a historically improbable event. There's a reason that they keep showing Dale Hunter's OT goal against the Flyers in '88, and there's a reason that the old timers get misty and choked up when they see it.

Put another way, the probability of winning the Stanley Cup in any given playoff year is (all things being equal), 6.25% (1/16). The probability of coming back from down 2-0 and down 3-1 is around 8%.

Even if we don't get a parade this year, we've already seen this team make history. Don't take this for granted.

Let's Go CAPS!!!!

Do you have a favorite list of songs to get you warmed up for Caps games? If so, let 'er rip. I'll start.

In semi-alpabetical order (thanks iTunes!):

AC/DC: Shoot to Thrill, Thunderstruck

Blood Brothers: Set Fire to the Face on Fire

The Clash: I'm Not Down

Cooler: Eat My Goal

Dropkick Murphys: Barroom Hero

Face to Face: Pastel

Faith No More: Epic

Helmet: Milquetoast

Kinski: Hiding Drugs in the Temple, Pt. 2

Led Zeppelin: The Immigrant Song

The Living End: Roll On

Mastodon: Blood and Thunder

Metallica: Seek and Destroy, For Whom the Bell Tolls

Mogwai: Auto Rock

Operation Ivy: Sound System

Pennywise: Badge of Pride

Pinhead Circus: Walking on Sunshine

Rancid: Bloodclot

Read Yellow: Fashion Fatale

Refused: New Noise

Russian Circles: Youngblood

Saturday Knights: 45

Social Distortion: Ring of Fire

Soundgarden: Ty Cobb

Sparta: Cut Your Ribbon

Suicide Machines: Break the Glass

The Sword: WInter's Wolves, To Take the Black

Therapy?: Die Like a Mother------

Tool: Aenima

Torche: Speed of the Nail

Transplants: Tall Cans in the Air

Vendetta Red: Por Vida

98 Mute: Slow Motion Riot

Ok, maybe he came up with this on his own, but the premise of his current article on ESPN.com is eerily similar to a post I made a couple of days ago. In it, he argues that the Capitals this year remind him of the early-90s Nordiques.

Hmm. Where have I heard that before? Oh yeah, here.

His point is generally correct. I just want some credit. :P

If you do agree with his premise, do you think that the Caps should trade a Sundin for Wendel Clark? That is, would you be willing to sacrifice one of the "Young Guns," (presumably Semin) for a gritty, savvy veteran like say, Ryan Smyth?

This was originally a response to a FanPost by fat daddyo. To paraphrase his post, he suggested, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, that the Capitals might want to consider firing coach Bruce Boudreau as a means of snapping the team out of its funk prior to the playoffs. The inspiration for this idea was the Devils' firing of coach Robbie Ftorek prior to the 2000 Stanley Cup playoffs, which the Devils went on to win. 

The general response to this suggestion was, to put it mildly, overwhelmingly negative, and I was no different. However, I sensed a feeling in the comments that I've seen before, sometimes here at the Rink, but more frequently on places like the Caps Insider responses. The gist of this sentiment is, "In Bruce We Trust." Essentially, Boudreau has done such an amazing job turning around the fortunes of this recently moribund franchise, that his decisions are largely unquestioned. It's as though many fans have chosen to blindly trust him. While I think Boudreau is an outstanding coach, and I would never suggest that he be removed from his position, I also think that blind faith tends to leave one in the dark. I order to counter what I termed the "rose-colored optimism" of many Caps fans toward Boudreau, I wrote the following analysis. 

Boudreau has definite weaknesses as a coach. I still think it would be ludicrous to fire him, but there are several issues that I think need addressing.

1. Over the course of the season, this team has essentially become entirely dependent upon the PP for offense. This is especially odd because at the beginning of the season, the PP was struggling and the Caps were monstrous 5-5. What worries me about this is that: a) there are fewer penalties in the playoffs, and b) other teams have figured this out and focus a great deal on not taking penalties when playing the Caps.

2. Closely tied to point 1, the Caps simply refuse to go to the net consistently as a team. This makes opposing goalies look better than they really are, while depriving the team of the “ugly” secondary goals that every team needs to win consistently, particularly in the playoffs. Moreover, going to the net and other high-traffic areas is a sure-fire way to draw penalties, but the Caps don’t do it and thereby decrease their scoring opportunities even further.

This isn’t a new problem; it’s been a constant sore point in Boudreau’s post-game comments, in on-air analysis by commentators, and it’s a frequent topic of discussion here at the Rink. So if the problem is clearly identified, why hasn’t it been fixed by this point? My feeling is that the fault for this is one part personnel (GMGM) and two parts coaching. It’s no secret that the Caps are loaded with skill players, particularly European skill players. The style of hockey they grew up playing, and that they excel at, is not the ol’ North American “chuck it at the net and whack at the rebound” style of hockey (AKA The Esposito-Smyth Method). That being said, that Caps’ third and fourth lines are made up primarily of North American players who excel at just that kind of hockey. Guys like Brooks Laich, and at times Eric Fehr, who Mike Vogel once told me would be the “poor-man’s Tomas Holmstrom,” have shown the willingness (albeit with sporadic execution) to go to the net. However, neither of these guys gets sufficient ice time, particularly on the power play. How often have we complained about watching Tomas Fleischmann skate ineffectually around the perimeter for 15-17 minutes per game while Fehr dutifully skates his 11 minutes of even-strength time? If it’s obvious to us, it’s obvious to the video scouts and the coaching staff. . . and yet nothing has changed.*

(*See Below)

To connect this point to JP’s post this morning about Tom Poti, the unwillingness to go to the net also impacts the defensemen’s ability to score. When players go to the net, teams tend to collapse defensively around them. This does two things. First, it leaves the points with time and space to take well-aimed slapshots. Second, it effectively doubles the traffic in front of the net, since a defenseman presents just as much of an impediment to his goalie’s vision as the forward he’s trying to guard. The net result of this is more shots by defensemen, more traffic in front of the goalie, more “seeing-eye” goals, more deflections, and more penalties drawn. The Caps just plain don’t do any of this with consistency.

3. The penalty kill is still an area of weakness, and it has been all season. While it’s true that many of the Caps’ best penalty killers have been injured (such as Poti and now Gordon), this isn’t an excuse. Many teams with far less talent manage to kill penalties more effectively than the Caps. This is especially problematic given point 4. . .

4. The Caps continually take stupid, lazy penalties. We all know exactly what I’m talking about. Certain players on this team (Semin, Nylander, Jurcina and Erskine) take an enormous amount of lazy stick infractions, particularly in the offensive or neutral zone. For all the talk by Boudreau this season, the situation doesn’t really seem to have improved and nobody’s ice time changed as a result. Yes, Nylander doesn’t play much anymore, but that has more to do with the fact that he’s just generally useless in this system and less to do with his stick infractions.

5. In part, some of these unnecessary penalties can be chalked up to what I see as Boudreau’s biggest weakness: line matching. When players are caught out against the wrong line, they do whatever it takes to play defense, which often results in penalties. I don’t know if Bruce just doesn’t care to match lines at all until the 2nd half of the 3rd period, or if he’s just really bad at matching personnel, but his line choices often leave me scratching my head. This is most pronounced at home where the Caps have the second change. For example, in the last home loss, I counted no less than three times when the Caps rolled out the 4th line of Bradley-Gordon-Brashear against the Crosby-Malkin line. That was an egregiously poor decision which led to at least one goal against and a penalty. Those kinds of mistakes can torpedo a playoff run.

I’m certainly not saying that Bruce should be fired, but I think that we should collectively take off our rose-colored glasses and realize that, while he’s a good coach, there is a lot of room for improvement. I for one am particularly concerned about the problem areas, such as the PK and traffic in front of the net, that have shown zero to little improvement over the course of the season. There seems to be a pervasive attitude of “In Bruce We Trust,” and I’m not sure that’s totally justified. The guy has a little over one year of NHL coaching under his belt – it’s not like he’s Toe Blake, Al Arbour or Scotty Bowman.

Now, before we all go and get overly pessimistic, I’m now going to caveat my own posting by saying that I think part of the reason that the Caps have been so inconsistent since the All-Star break is not necessarily Boudreau’s fault. First, this team has had a playoff spot all but locked up since New Year’s. We’ve seen what kind of deleterious effect that can have on teams like Boston and even San Jose to some extent.

Second, and I think this is probably more important, the Caps haven’t had any prolonged periods without games since the break. Boudreau constantly stresses how important consistent practices are for getting the team to adhere to his system, so it would follow that the Caps would benefit from a break. Looking at the schedule, they had one three-day break after the All-Star Game in January and one more in February. The results after those breaks?

January= 4 wins (Detroit, Ottawa, NJ and Fla) 1 loss (LA), 23 goals for, 14 goals against. 
February= 6 wins (Tampa, Fla, Montreal, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Boston) 2 losses (Colorado and Philly) and one shootout loss in NY to the Rangers. 33 goals for, 27 goals against.

Crucially, after that brutal stretch of games with just two two-day breaks in February ending with the win in Boston, the Caps proceeded to poop the proverbial bed, losing their next four in a row to Florida, Carolina, Toronto and Pittsburgh (in the shootout), with 8 goals for and 17 goals against.

(BTW, if you’re checking my numbers, they may look odd, because I’m counting shootout winning goals. I don’t know if the NHL does this officially or not. I was using the TSN.ca team schedule calendar.)

So what does this (extremely) long-winded post mean? Primarily, Bruce should be treated like any other coach. He's not Hockey Moses, come to lead us out of the hockey desert after 35 years. Heck, he's not even Scotty Bowman. He's human, and just like the rest of us he makes mistakes. His team will have shortcomings that reflect those mistakes. We don't need to get on him for every little thing, but we should most definitely call him out when there are glaring issues with this team that have been evident since the beginning of the season. Have events (injuries, illness, schedule) conspired to make his task more difficult? Surely they have, but the NHL doesn't engrave the excuses of the runners-up on the Stanley Cup. 

So as to not finish on a down note, as Caps fans, we should take heart in two things. First, Bruce is clearly his own man and he's confident enough in himself to admit mistakes. Remember the Ovechkin-Backstrom-Nylander debacle of a line before the trading deadline? Haven't seen that one since, and good riddance. I can think of any number of other instances, but the news from today's practice is more important: after months of harping on his players to create traffic in front of the net, Boudreau finally put his money where his mouth was and bumped Eric Fehr up to the top line, Brooks Laich to the second, and dropped Flash and Kozlov to the third. What happens on the power play remains to be seen, but that's surely a good sign.

The second reason for optimism is that the Caps have had two two-day breaks this week, which allowed them to get some practice time in. After Friday night's game though, the Caps have four full days of rest and practice to get ready for the final stretch. History shows us that the Caps usually play Bruce's system "to a T" when coming out of these types of long breaks. At the very least, we should see some good hockey, but personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Caps put up an excellent record down the stretch. I think that 5-2, or 4-1-2 might be well within reach. Either record would give the Caps 107 points on the year, which would tie them for the Caps' all time record for points in a season, set by the 1985-86 team. 

The boxscore from Saturday night's game against the 'Canes shows the following selected faceoff stats: 

Caps:

Backstrom:  12 wins / 9 losses

Gordon:         5 wins / 6 losses

Steckel:       10 wins / 3 losses

Canes:

Staal:            14 wins / 14 losses

Cullen:         10 wins / 8 losses

Brindamour: 6 wins / 10 losses

I don't know which game the official scorer was watching, because the Canes absolutely owned the Caps in the faceoff dot all night. The notion that Backstrom was 12 for 21 on the night, while Brindamour was 6 for 16 is ludicrous. I can only recall Brindamour losing one faceoff all night, and that was to Steckel. 

I know the Caps were missing their best offensive faceoff guy in Fedorov, but tonight's game was ridiculous. The Caps' inability to win a faceoff continually gave the Canes puck possession and offensive opportunities. This doesn't bode well for the playoffs.

On the topic of Backstrom, I honestly don't know why he just doesn't turn his hand over and take faceoffs backhanded. I can think of very few of the top faceoff men in the NHL who take them overhanded. The only thing I can think of is that he is worried that an opponent will take advantage of his relative lack of upper-body strength and pin his stick to the ice.