SB Nation User Blog: D'ohboy

Capitals Claim Chris Bourque off Waivers from the Penguins, and Assign Him to Hershey

D'ohboy — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:50:09 -0000

Capitals Claim Chris Bourque off Waivers from the Penguins, and Assign Him to Hershey

Welcome back, Chris.

"Nothing but Anchors"

D'ohboy — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:35:36 -0000

Has McPhee offered a bald Swede to the Leafs so they can finally replace Sundin?

In an interview with ESPN's Pierre Lebrun, Toronto Maple Leafs General Manager Brian Burke said that, although he's been working the phones to improve his team, "The ones (GMs) that are calling, it's not a helpful group. . . I haven't got anything but anchors thrown at me." I think that we might be very familiar with one of those anchors. . .

Looking at the Leafs' roster, it's clear that they're more than a little weak at center ice. They could certainly use an experienced center to dish the puck to talented wings like Mikhail Grabovski and, when he returns from his shoulder rehab, Phil Kessel. While he might be persona non grata here in the District, Michael Nylander would instantly become the Leafs' best center (unless you're buying Matt Stajan as a number-one center) and might be the right catalyst to spark the Leafs' struggling offense.

The Lebrun interview alludes to the fact that, after trading their first round draft pick next summer to their division rivals the Bruins to acquire Kessel, the Leafs aren't anxious to tank their season. This, combined with the pressure of the Toronto marketplace, almost guarantees that they're unlikely to stand pat if their slow start continues. Since they are hard against the salary cap as of now, however, some salary would certainly have to come back Washington's way to make any deal work.

Given the situation and Burke's comments, I'd be surprised if McPhee hadn't called Burke to discuss Nylander. I'd be equally surprised if Burke didn't brush him off like some dandruff from his shoulder. Still, it's better than another f****** "Nylander to Russia" rumor that never pans out.

Scouting the Bears, Part I

D'ohboy — Tue, 19 May 2009 01:08:47 -0000

This weekend I headed up to Hershey to get a fix for my hockey jones and to "scout" some of the Caps' prospects in the crucible of the Calder Cup Playoffs. If you haven't been up to Hershey yet, I highly recommend it. The drive is a little long, but you can make a weekend out of it and see two games. The best part is how affordable it is: lower-level tickets are under $25, and a draft beer is under $6.

This post is going to be a bit on the long side, so I'll provide some organization up-front so you can skip around and read what you like. First, I only paid attention to the top prospects - I've only got one set of eyes, so I focused them on Bouchard, Bourque, Carlson, Neuvirth, Osala and Perrault. (If you have specific questions about anyone else, I'm happy to answer them - if I don't know, I'll just say so.)

Today's part one will be Bouchard, Bourque and Carlson. Tomorrow's part two will be Neuvirth, Osala and Perrault. To conclude, part three will be my impressions about the organization as a whole. I'll break the players down in alphabetical order. To try to make comparison easier, I'll rate the skaters in nine categories: Skating, Shot, Puckhandling, Passing, Defensive Awareness/Responsibility, Physical Strength, Conditioning, Hockey Sense and Intangibles. (I'll just write up my impressions of Neuvirth) These ratings will be from 1-10, with 10 being the top score. I could BS you and give every player a rating for every category, but that would be silly - if I didn't get a solid impression, they'll just get an asterisk. After that, I'll give a little write-up.

*A brief disclaimer: I'm not a professional scout. I'm an avid hockey fan who has played and coached a bit. My impressions are only based on two games, so they should be taken with a grain of salt.*

Francois Bouchard (Age: 21) Reg. Season: 64GP, 15G, 20A, 35P, +18

Playoffs: 11GP, 1G, 2A, 3P, Even

Skating: 7

Shot: *

Puckhandling: *

Passing: *

Def. Awareness: *

Physical Strength: 6

Conditioning: *

Hockey Sense: *

Intangibles: *

It was tough to get a read on Bouchard. He only played in Sunday's game, and he didn't get much ice time. He acquitted himself well during his time on the ice, but didn't really stand out in any particular way. I rated him a 7 at skating because, while he seemed to have some jump, he was a fair bit slower than the elite skaters, such as Perrault. His strength along the boards wasn't terribly impressive, and from my vantage point, he didn't look nearly 6ft/180lbs. To my eyes, he looked more like a tall 5'10.

Chris Bourque (Age: 23) Reg. Season: 69GP, 21G, 52A, 73P, +10

Playoffs: 13GP, 2G, 11A, 13P, +1

Skating: 9

Shot: 8

Puckhandling: 7

Passing: 8

Def. Awareness: 9

Physical Strength: 8

Conditioning: 10

Hockey Sense: 10

Intangibles: 10

Bourque was a revelation. Simply put, over the course of two games, he was the best player on the ice for either team, hands down. It may not have shown on the scoresheet, but Bourque was everywhere, constantly creating scoring chances. I must admit, I was surprised. From watching him during call-ups and looking at his stats, I expected to see a good, but not excellent player. After this weekend, I'm left scratching my head as to why the Caps didn't call him up during the playoffs. Despite his size, he repeatedly won physical battles along the boards. He may be short, but he's built just like his father in 8/10 scale - in other words, a brick s--thouse on skates. He's strong and his low center of gravity and strong lower-body ensure that he ins't easily knocked off the puck. (Now he just needs to cinch up his helmet a little tighter.) He has a hard shot that he gets off very quickly, which is why both Woods and Boudreau have played him at the point on the first powerplay unit. I only rated it an 8, however, because it doesn't seem to be terribly accurate. He'd probably be well-served to ease off the velocity a bit and try to pick some corners.

What really stood out about Bourque wasn't his skating or his shot, or even his superior conditioning (he was still skating and battling like mad in the third period of back-to-back games). No, his greatest assets are his hockey sense and his "intangibles." Like another son of a former NHL great from his draft year, Paul Stastny, Bourque makes up for an obvious shortcoming (for Stastny it's his skating, for Bourque it's his size) by being smarter than everyone else on the ice.

Gretzky's dad used to say, "don't skate to the puck, skate to where the puck is going to be." Bourque is always where the puck is going to be. I simply stopped counting the number of times that he was the first player to a loose puck. He's almost always in the right position. He helped his linemates win several faceoffs by anticipating where the puck was going and beating the P-Bruins forwards to it.

Watching him in isolation without the puck, I was struck by how often he was all alone in high-scoring areas. He just had a knack for being in the right place at the right time - it was uncanny. This "hockey sense" also carries over to the defensive end - he's very defensively responsible, and he made a solid play backing up a pinching defenseman to shut down an offensive rush.

Like me, you might find yourself wondering why his stats aren't better, or why he didn't look all that impressive when called up. My guess is that it's due in part to his linemates. When I saw him, he was primarily playing with a mixture of gritty guys (Beagle and Reid, primarily), but not with the big scorers like Osala or Giroux. Also, having great hockey sense doesn't amount to much if your linemates don't share it with you. Often, Bourque would be in the perfect position, but he wouldn't get the pass, or when he would, the window would have closed. Stastny noted this when his statistics suddenly went through the roof when he joined the Avalanche - "smart" players need to play with other smart and talented guys in order to fully exploit their skillset, whereas guys with overwhelming physical talents (such as Ovechkin), can stand out regardless of the circumstance. (Just as an aside, I think Detroit's success can be tied in large part to their ability to identify "smart" players and put them all together into a system that utilizes their combined hockey sense.)

The one big flaw that I saw in Bourque's game is that he hurries himself at times. He's so used to doing everything fast (probably to avoid getting hit), that he rushes passes and shots when a bit of patience might be called for. To make the jump to the next level, he might need to heed the old adage, "slow is smooth and smooth is fast."

Ultimately, I found Bourque both fascinating and frustrating to watch. Why frustrating? Because I couldn't help but picture him replacing Fleischmann in the Caps' playoff lineup and providing a much-needed boost. If the Caps can't find a place for Bourque on the roster next year (and not just on the fourth line), it will be a shame. He has the capability to step in and put up a 15/20/35 stat line right now, and possibly more than that if he plays with more talented players.

John Carlson (Age: 19) Reg. Season (OHL): 59GP, 16G, 60A, 76P, +23

Playoffs (AHL): 9GP, 1G, 0A, 1P, +1

Skating: 8

Shot: 8

Puckhandling: 8

Passing: 9

Def. Awareness: 9

Physical Strength: 9

Conditioning:10

Hockey Sense: 9

Intangibles: *

After watching Carlson, I was tempted just to rate him 9s and 10s across the board. He's that good. He wasn't perfect - he made a couple of youthful errors of exuberance: one was an ill-advised attempt to glove down a clear at the offensive blue line, and the other was a mistimed hip-check: both led to scoring chances against. Other than that, he was mighty impressive. He has a smooth and powerful skating stride, and his transitions (front-back-front) are quick. There were several loose pucks that looked like they would be a close footrace between Carlson and a P-Bruin. He won every race, and they weren't nearly as close as they might have been. With the exception of the missed hip-check, his lateral movement was equally impressive. His play in the defensive zone was responsible - he saved a sure goal against in Game 2 with a smart stick on the goal line.

For all of that, his most outstanding attributes were his strength/conditioning, and his outlet passes. Despite being just 19, I never saw Carlson get muscled off the puck. Admittedly, Providence's forwards are on the small side, but some, such as Jeremy Reich, present a physical challenge. After watching Alzner get pushed around during his brief NHL stint, I have to say I was pleasantly surprised by Carlson's strength (although reports from the development camp last summer suggested that he was a bit of a gym rat). His outlet passes were consistently quick and sharp, particularly in contrast with the other Bears. His composure with the puck was equally impressive, regardless of his age or level of experience.

Carlson could use to be a little more physical in front of his net - I'd like to see him initiate contact and develop a bit of a "mean streak," but perhaps that will come with age and experience. He seemed willing to take a wrist shot and get it on net rather than blast a slapshot into a defender, but otherwise he didn't really impress me with his shots. (This was a characteristic endemic to all the Bears players, and it's something I'll discuss in a later entry.) I wish that Alzner had been healthy so that I could have compared them both against similar levels of competition. Regardless, I'd guess that Carlson plays at least a handful of games for the Caps next year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he were called up late in the season and stayed. He doesn't look as though he has too much left to learn in the AHL. He'll go through some growing pains in the NHL, but his upside would likely be worth it. If he's not up with the big club next year, it's more likely because there isn't space on the roster, rather than due to his lack of ability.

That's it for tonight. I'll try to write part two tomorrow. If you have any questions or comments, please let me know.

Goin' to Hershey

D'ohboy — Fri, 15 May 2009 20:23:56 -0000

I'll be heading up to Hershey to soothe my hockey jones and to get a look at some of the young 'uns down on the farm. I'll be staying in Lancaster, and driving into Hershey on Saturday and Sunday night.

Given that I'll be "scouting" some of the players for a future FanPost on here, I should have purchased seats up high in the 200-level, but curiosity and the draw of novelty got the better of me (I sit in the 400-level at the VC), so I'll be sitting further down toward the glass in section 126.

First, is anyone else headed up to the game? Second, can anyone recommend any restaurants/bars in the area? It's my first time venturing up in that direction, so any suggestions are welcome.

If anyone is headed up there, hit me up in the comments and we'll meet up for a beer.

Anaheim-Detroit/Boston-Carolina Thread

D'ohboy — Thu, 14 May 2009 23:20:44 -0000

Just thought I'd throw something up so we could discuss the games tonight. I don't know about you guys, but I can't just quit hockey cold turkey. I need some methadone.

(Apparently, this needs to be 75 words. I can't believe that I'm actually having a hard time making the minimum word limit. Hmmm.)

I don't know about you folks, but personally, I'm rooting for Detroit and Boston. I think a Detroit-Chicago conference final would be amazing.

Pierre LeBrun: Inspired by D'ohboy?: Part Deux

D'ohboy — Wed, 13 May 2009 12:25:25 -0000

Now this is just getting creepy. A few weeks ago, I made a FanPost suggesting that Pierre LeBrun of ESPN.com had "borrowed" an idea from a comment I made to write an article about the similarities of this Capitals team and the Quebec Nordiques of the early 1990s.

He's at it again, and this time the similarities are even more stark. Here is "How Washington can win, Point 2" from his "Keys to Game 7" article this morning.

2. Been there, done that and really want to do it again
You can argue that whatever happened in Game 6, or any of the first-round elimination games when the Caps erased a 3-1 series deficit against the New York Rangers, means doodley-squat. But the Caps think it means a lot, and maybe that's all that matters.

The Capitals are 7-1 in potential elimination games dating back to Game 82 of last season (a game the Caps had to win to qualify for the playoffs). Then there's the matter of playing in three straight Game 7s dating back to the first round of last postseason, when Washington lost in overtime to Philadelphia at home.

"We're aware of what to expect," Caps defenseman Mike Green said Tuesday. "I think that Game 7, it gets us excited. We seem to play good in those situations and hopefully that's the situation tomorrow night."

The Penguins have not played in a seventh game since the end of the lockout, which might become a slight factor in favor of the Capitals, but Pittsburgh did stave off elimination in last season's Stanley Cup finals by winning Game 5 in triple overtime in Detroit.

Still, throughout this series, we in the media have often cited the Pens' recent Cup finals experience as a factor in why they might defeat the youthful Capitals. Now, with it all on the line, it's Washington that seems to have the edge in experience, for whatever it's worth.

First, the premise of this point is exactly the same as a post I made yesterday. Second, he's even using the same title (or a close approximation).

The first time I suggested that he had "borrowed" my idea, it was pretty tongue in cheek. I thought it absurd that he might have actually been inspired by something I wrote on here. This time? I'm not so sure. I'll leave it to my fellow Rink Rats to judge.

Been there, done that

D'ohboy — Tue, 12 May 2009 21:56:03 -0000

By my count, this Caps team has played in two game sevens over the past two years, and has faced elimination seven times (games 5,6 and 7 vs. both the Flyers and the Rangers, and game 6 last night). In those seven games, the Caps are 6-1.

In contrast, the Crosby/Malkin Penguins have played in zero game sevens over the last three years, and have faced elimination only three times (2007 vs. the Senators, and games 5 and 6 vs. the Red Wings last year). In those three games, the Pens are 1-2.

Food for thought.

We need to channel our inner leopard seal.

D'ohboy — Mon, 11 May 2009 17:16:37 -0000

We need to channel our inner leopard seal.

Game 2 Hershey vs. WBS highlights. Check out the sweet double-pad stack by Neuvirth toward the end.

D'ohboy — Wed, 06 May 2009 18:46:33 -0000

Game 2 Hershey vs. WBS highlights. Check out the sweet double-pad stack by Neuvirth toward the end.

Breaking Down the Caps vs. Penguins

D'ohboy — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 19:15:44 -0000

This was originally an email to a friend of mine, so I'm sorry if the formatting doesn't quite come through. Apologies for the length.

The emergence of Varlamov has really changed my view of the Caps. Yes, the Rangers were offensively inept, but he surrendered 7 goals in 6 games (and three of those were on Sunday). That's unbelievably good. The goals that did beat him were mostly lucky bounces or absolutely perfect shots. He made a few saves last night that were superb, and crucial, because the Caps were getting outplayed for much of the first and second periods.

Moreover, having Varly back there has changed how the Caps' defensemen play. They spend less time defending the initial shot and focus instead on clearing rebounds. With Theodore, I think they felt as though they had to defend the initial shot, because Theo might not make the save. With Varly, they know that he'll make the initial save, so all they have to do is police up the rebound. Every single Caps defenseman looked so much better over the last few games as a result because they're playing within themselves and the system. Jurcina was an absolute beast last night. Mike Green finally seems like himself after fighting off what was apparently a pretty bad flu virus. The Pothier-Erskine pair has been generally outstanding. Even when the Caps were pinned in their end for much of the second period, the Rangers generated essentially zero good scoring chances.

The Pens are a very, very interesting team. Malkin and Crosby are excellent players, and now that they're not stuck on the same line, they give the Penguins two solid scoring lines. The additions of Guerin and Kunitz were smart - they finally gave Crosby some wingers to play with. Gonchar is an excellent offensive defenseman, Orpik is sound defensively, and Scuderi and Gill are both serviceable penalty-killers. This is a team that made it to the Cup finals last year, finished this season on a torrid streak and dispatched the Flyers in 6.

Look a little deeper and things don't look so rosy for the Pens. Starting with the big two up front, both Malkin and Crosby (moreso the latter than the former) have displayed a propensity to get distracted/flustered by the physical attention paid to them by opponents, and Ovechkin in particular. (Ovie, to his credit, is completely unflappable. I think he doesn't even have flaps.) Guerin and Kunitz were smart pickups, but their second set of wingers (a rotating cast of Fedotenko, Satan, an injured Sykora and other assorted flotsam and jetsam) are not exactly stellar.

Much has been made of the Caps' drop-off in defensive talent after Mike Green. Still, the Pens might have the only weaker defensive corps remaining in the playoffs. After Gonchar and Orpik, you've got small, very young, and error prone (Letang), big and slow (Gill), a decent, but replaceable 4-6 defenseman (Scuderi) and a quintessential journeyman (Mark Eaton). Oh, and the ghost of Phillipe Boucher. Honestly, I wouldn't trade the Caps defense straight-up for Pittsburgh's. I think they'll eventually come to rue giving up Whitney (although they did get a pretty good prospect back in Tangradi). As for Pittsburgh's role players, I think much of this comes down to Jordan Staal. If he performs like he did a couple years ago, they'll be tough to beat. However, it has been a while since he's shown that form and his playoff performance last year was underwhelming. However, the Pens do have more scoring depth in their bottom-six forwards (However, it must be noted that Kennedy, Cooke and Talbot have all spent some time filling in on the top lines and thereby upped their point totals. Still, they score more than their Caps counterparts.)

Speaking of underwhelming, this brings us to Pittsburgh's biggest Achilles' Heel, Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury was outstanding in last year's playoffs, but he's been only decent thus far in the playoffs, with one truly outstanding game and several so-so performances. He's shown some mental frailty in the past, much like Chris Osgood. There's no doubting his talent, but then, neither can you doubt the talent of Theodore, and look what's happened with him.

So, how does this break down?

Coaching: Advantage Caps. Bylsma has been good, but he just started coaching this team. It's tough to implement "your" system in just a couple months. Also, Boudreau was coaching before Bylsma was out of diapers (exaggeration). Boudreau's adjustments to his lines and the Caps' power-play, along with his call to use Varlamov were all brilliant. Bylsma's one major adjustment was to bench Letang and Sykora (who's not fully healthy) for Boucher and Satan in game 5. It didn't work and the Pens lost 3-0.

Top-line Forwards: Advantage Caps. This might seem crazy, given that the Pens have Crosby and Malkin, but the trio of Ovechkin, Semin and Backstrom is better, and fairly clearly so. The Pens have Guerin and Kunitz, but the Caps have Fedorov and Laich (depending on which line he's on). For me, the injury to Sykora, and the presence of Fedorov with all of his experience, tips this one toward the Caps.

Role-playing Forwards: Advantage Pens. Basically, by putting Laich on a top line and Staal on the third line, the Pens get this advantage. If you switch those out, I'd make the top-lines a push and give the role-players to the Caps. This is also much closer than it may seem. The return of Clark, and the emergence of Gordon and Steckel as great shut-down centers with excellent faceoff skills make the Caps much stronger at the bottom end than they were earlier in the season. Dupuis, Talbot, Cooke, Kennedy and Adams are all decent grinders, but none of them have the offensive upside of Fehr or Fleischmann, although they have produced more offense than the Caps' grinders (Bradley, Gordon, Steckel and Clark/Brashear).

Defense: Advantage Caps. Green>Gonchar. Poti>Letang (right now, anyway, maybe not in the near future). Jurcina, Erskine, Morrisonn=Orpik, Scuderi, Gill, Eaton. The obvious tie-breaker here is at the top-end, but the subtle advantage for the Caps is Brian Pothier. Forced into action by Jeff Schultz's injury after 14 months rehabbing from concussion symptoms, Pothier took a couple of games to get into the swing of the playoffs. Now, however, his smooth skating and his ability to start the transition game with accurate outlet passes have been a revelation, and something that the Caps were missing when Green wasn't on the ice. Paired with Erskine, his speed and puckhandling cover for Erskine's lack thereof, while Erskine's size and physicality make up for Pothier's lack thereof. A classic case of the whole being greater than the sum of the parts.

Power-Play: Advantage Caps. This one isn't as close as it should be, given the presence of Crosby, Malkin, Gonchar and Guerin on the Pens' PP. I think the Pens miss Malone, Whitney and Hossa here, badly. The Caps can be guilty of over-passing and trying too hard for the "perfect" play, but they still put up an 18.2 PP% against an amazingly good penalty killing team and a phenomenal goaltender. Boudreau's ability to coach really shone through here, as he juggled the PP lines to get more net presence (by giving Laich more PP time) and he added Tom Poti to give the Caps an accurate shot from the point.

Penalty-Kill: Push. The Caps put up slightly better numbers against the Rangers, but it was the Rangers after all. Their power play was abysmal. The Penguins had a good PK against the Flyers, but it's also hard to say how much of that was the Pens, and how much of that was the complete and total disappearance of Jeff Carter. The Pens had slightly better numbers during the regular season, but the Caps were decimated with injuries on their blue line for much of the season, and the presence of Theodore between the pipes probably didn't help matters.

Goaltending: ~~Advantage Caps~~ Push. (Poster's note: I originally gave this to the Caps due to Varlamov's stellar play thus far. However, on further consideration - with a nudge from Hooks Orpik - I've shifted this to even). This was the Caps' main area of weakness prior to the playoffs. It remains to be seen if Varlamov can keep playing at this level, but even if he gives the Caps a more-pedestrian .920 save percentage and a GAA under 2, the Caps could take the Cup. No joke. Fleury has been maddeningly inconsistent his entire career, and he has shown a propensity to get down on himself after bad goals. His play has been inconsistent enough, and he's suffered injuries that some Pens fans and hockey obervers were suggesting that he could be supplanted by Ty Conklin as recently as late last year. He has had one amazing game this playoffs, a couple of good games and a host of decent performances. Varlamov has been outstanding, albeit against weaker competition.

Intangibles: Advantage Caps. First, there's the obvious home-ice advantage. After seeing how loud the VC got last night, this is significant. My ears are still ringing.

Second, there's health. Knock on wood, but the Caps seem relatively healthy, especially now that Chris Clark is back in the lineup. This is a guy who's capable of scoring 20-25 goals/season while playing well in all three phases of the game. If he's healthy, his presence in the lineup is huge. The Pens' potential loss of Sykora really hurts. He provides speed and secondary scoring, and he has been a decent playoff performer in his career.

Third, there's faceoffs. The Pens put up good numbers in the first round (55.7%, good for tops in the playoffs). The Caps came in second, at 53.7%. However, over the course of the season, the Caps had the better numbers. The Flyers main centerman was playing with a bum shoulder (although a similar argument can be made that Chris Drury's injury inflated the Caps' numbers). I think that overall, the Caps are better on the draw.

Fourth, there's chemistry. I know that it's immeasurable, but it's clear that the Caps really do play for one another - there is a relationship among the players that is difficult to define, but clearly observable, even from the distance of a fan. This is not saying that the Pens hate each other, but rather that this Caps team has been together all year, and most of the same players were around last year. Many of these guys played together on Hershey's Calder Cup team. The Pens, on the other hand, saw a lot of turnover this last summer and have, in the last two years, traded away or released a slew of players like Whitney, Malone, Hossa, Roberts, Armstrong, Christensen, Conklin. The Pens looked utterly lost mid-way through the season and although their coach paid the price, ultimately the culprit was likely injuries and a lack of cohesion wrought by personnel turnover. The additions of Guerin and Kunitz surely helped on the ice, but Guerin doesn't exactly have a reputation as being a great locker-room presence, and any time a team has to import 2/3 of a top line at the trade deadline, you know there are serious holes in the roster.

Fifth, there's the effect of the previous round. Sometimes, you can read too much into the carryover effects from one round to the next, but I think this is a case where the Caps have an advantage. Looking back at the Caps' season and the times they struggled, if I were to craft a team to defeat the Caps, that team would look a hell of a lot like the New York Rangers. The Caps' strength was their PP; the Rangers' strength was their PK. The Caps struggled against teams that played strong in the neutral zone; the Rangers, thanks to Renney, were very strong at the center of the ice. The Caps struggled to score against good/hot goaltenders because of their inability to create or sustain traffic in front of the net; the Rangers had perhaps the best goalie in the Eastern Conference in Lundqvist. The Caps struggled against mediocre teams where they couldn't muster sufficient intensity; the Rangers were the very definition of mediocre. The Caps' ability to overcome their disadvantage and advance to the second round will make them a better team. They had to find that extra "playoff gear" - I was worried that they wouldn't find it until it was too late, but now that they have, it's a major advantage. Although the Flyers didn't exactly roll over for the Penguins, they did a remarkable job of self-destructing (what else is new?), and Martin Biron played to his talent level, which is to say, decently, but inconsistently. Between them, the Flyers' best two players, Richards and Carter, put up a 2/4/6 -6 stat line. The Penguins probably should have won that series in 5 games.

Sixth, the Caps can thank NBC for the long break between rounds. Normally, playing seven games can be a bit of a disadvantage, because you're exhausted coming out of the last game, and you only have a couple of days' rest before the next round. Thanks to NBC wanting the Caps and Penguins to play on Saturday, the Caps will have three full days of rest and practice before the beginning of the series, which is plenty of time to recharge.

So, what does this all add up to? In my eyes, this adds up to a Caps victory in 5 or 6 games. Crosby and Malkin are great, but their team lacks the Caps' high-end offensive depth, and their defense and Fleury are not good enough to make up for that. People tend to forget what the Pens have lost since last year: Hossa, Malone, Whitney, Roberts and Conklin. That's a lot of talent to lose, and Guerin and Kunitz don't replace that. The injury to Sykora hurts - even if he plays, a shoulder injury will hamper his shooting and puckhandling.