Anyone else think Sebathia could overheat?

D-Bone — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 03:53:42 -0000

So I sit here composing this post just after reading about another Sebathia complete game. Does anyone else think this guy could wear down just when the Brewers need him most? Let's look at a couple facts...

First off, Sebathia is listed at 290 pounds and 6'7" Another pitcher named Jonathan Broxton of the LAD is also listed at 290 pounds and only 6'4" yet he looks in much better shape than good ole budda bellied Sebathia. So lets say Sebathia is a cupcake under 320. So he's not in great shape, he's not used to having to take this many at-bats. He's not used to running around the bases, and although he's pitched amazingly well since joining the Brewers I don't buy that he'll be able to keep up this pace and continue it into a playoff push.

On top of the issues listed above. Let's not forget at the Innings pitched the last several years while he carried a mediocre Indians team for half the decade. He's never thrown less than 180 innings in his career, including his rookie season, and at the age of only 28 he's pitched about 1600 major league innings. He has also missed 3 starts or more in 03, 04, and 06. So although he's been very durable overall he's shown signs of fatigue in the past in my opinion.

He threw over 240 innings last season while winning the cy young award, and he's on pace to hit close to 250 innings this season. I'm sorry but I don't see him having the stamina to finish strongly.

I'm projecting some bad outings here in the coming weeks. I really feel like the stress of the chase is also going to wear on him a bit. He's done everything just about perfect (except for the start against the Cubs, his only no decision since joining the Brewers, which I'm also extremely proud of the Cubs for taking that game) I'll be shocked if he ends up winning 4 more games this season. I guess it's mostly a hunch, but I think I'm right on.

Your thoughts?

SB Nation User Blog: D-Bone

Anyone else think Sebathia could overheat?