SB Nation User Blog: D.J. Short

Now starting: Bobby Parnell?

D.J. Short — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 14:39:13 -0000

In the course of one afternoon, the Mets lost one starting pitcher for the year, but potentially found another one. And it wasn't Wednesday's winning pitcher Nelson Figueroa. Nope, I'm talking about Bobby Parnell. He tossed three effective innings, fanning three, on the way to earning his first major league save. During the broadcast, it dawned on Gary Cohen like it did the rest of us: 'Hey, this guy might be able to start for us.' After the game Jerry Manuel confirmed our suspicion:

"That is a consideration, and that was part of the plan today going forward. That's a part of why we did what we did today."

Parnell put up a 5.40 ERA during a brief cup of coffee towards the end of 2008, but he has compiled a 3.74 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 38/22 K/BB ratio in 45 2/3 innings (54 games) in 2009. Solid, if unspectacular numbers in his first full major league season. The 24-year-old has managed an excellent 1.10 ERA over his last 15 appearances after struggling to a 13.50 ERA in June. Thus far, all 60 of his appearances in the bigs have come out of the bullpen.

So what to expect if he enters the rotation? Eh. Don't get too excited.

Parnell had a 4.04 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 414/204 K/BB ratio over 94 games (92 starts) in the minors. Not exactly eye-popping. Parnell can't expect to maintain a 4.34 BB/9 in the majors and be effective, especially as a starter. We all knows he throws hard (an average of 95.2 MPH on his fastball, according to FanGraphs), which is great, but only a special talent Clayton Kershaw can survive with a walk rate like that.

Then there's the question of whether he has a true quality second pitch. Actually, we know he doesn't. Parnell possesses an okay slider, with average movement on it, but he doesn't have much confidence in it. Using it as a change of pace in the bullpen is fine, but his well-documented inconsistency with the pitch will only be exposed as he is stretched out.

While I realize the Mets are in dire straits right now, ultimately I fear this will be a mistake in what is already a lost season. With Parnell coming out the bullpen, the Mets actually have a pretty valuable trade chip; getting beat up over the course of a few meaningless starts will do nothing to help his value. I can't help but think back to September of 2007, when we were forced to sit through starts by the likes of Brian Lawrence and Philip Humber when Aaron Heilman, who actually had a legitimate arsenal, sat idly by in the bullpen. Just sayin.'

Please Forgive Me

D.J. Short — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 16:42:19 -0000

Please forgive me. Maybe it's the unadulterated boredom of an off-day, perhaps it's hearing that Omar still thinks the Mets are buyers, it could even be something more logical like hearing John Maine could miss the rest of the season, but for whatever reason, I woke up this morning thinking that a trade for Scott Kazmir would be a good idea.

You probably heard about this report from AOL Fanhouse that the Rays are looking to clear payroll in order to go after big chips like Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or Victor Martinez. Ed Price names the pitching-hungry Angels as a potential suitor for the 25-year-old. But don't the Mets make just as much sense here? Dismiss, just for a moment, the fact that we are rapidly approaching the five-year anniversary of our "Black Friday." Forget that we are even talking about the same guy. I know it's hard, scratch that, impossible, to separate the emotions of that fateful day, but this is the exact type of deal where Omar can buy-low without looking completely and totally irrational.

We all know that Kazmir isn't the same pitcher right now -- he really hasn't been for the past two seasons. Whether by injury or faulty mechanics, his velocity has suffered, and in turn, his strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff while his walk rate has increased each of the past three seasons. At least he's incorporated his slider again, but with the noticeable drop in velocity, the pitch has turned into a mere frisbee. Kazmir has become increasingly hittable, with opposing batters making contact 81.6% of the time in 2009, down from a brilliant 73.9% in 2006.

As you can see, there's lots of reasons why this deal shouldn't happen. Kazmir is a huge risk, with serious questions about his durability. He hasn't completed seven innings in a start since last June 21 (a span of 26 regular season starts, 32 if you count the postseason). Imagine the immense pressure of Omar righting a tremendous wrong, only to see Kazmir shrink down the stretch. Then, there's the more practical concern that the last thing the Mets need is another lefty (Kazmir would make three, Jon Niese potentially four) in the rotation, and an erratic one at that. After all, the Mets already have one incredibly frustrating southpaw on the payroll.

So why should the Mets do this? Because. That's why. Because somewhere in that left arm Kazmir possesses ace-type stuff. Because the Mets are one of only a few franchises that can take on this sort of financial risk. Kazmir is being paid a reasonable $6 million this year and $22.5 million through 2011. Chump change, even for the reportedly strapped Wilpons. Now, Kazmir can't hit a home run or be a replacement level shortstop. I freely admit that the deal wouldn't do much to ensure a Mets run this season. But what it would do is give the Mets a potential long-term ace to complement Johan Santana. What more could you ask for at the trade deadline?

You know what I'm saying, Omar?

Science vs. Faith

D.J. Short — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 17:04:21 -0000

(bumped from the FanPosts. --eric)

My evolution as a baseball fan reminds me of a memorable exchange from "Lost," specifically from the Season One finale entitled "Exodus Part II."

John Locke: That's why you and I don't see eye-to-eye sometimes, Jack -- because you're a man of science.

Jack Shephard: Yeah, and what does that make you?

John Locke: Me, well, I'm a man of faith.

Those who follow the popular television series know that Jack and Locke once had diametrically opposed viewpoints. Jack, a renowned spinal surgeon off the island, refused to accept anything that couldn't be explained rationally. Meanwhile Locke, who was wheelchair-bound off the island, could miraculously walk again. He was convinced that some greater power was at work.

As Mets fans, we were raised on this notion of faith, perhaps more than any other fanbase. We're the ones that, while thrilled to even have a National League team again, persevered through a 394-737 record before shocking the world in 1969. We're the ones who saw a black cat cross the path of Ron Santo on the way to becoming a "miracle." We're the ones who were told "You Gotta Believe!" by Tug. We're the ones who didn't stop believing with two outs against Calvin Schiraldi in Game 6, even when the scoreboard said otherwise. We're the ones who sat in the rain, witnessed "The Grand Slam Single" and believed that four straight wins against the hated Braves were possible, at least until the final, painful ball-four. We've been there, whether through our own experiences -- or a parent's -- or a grandparent's. We believed. And would you look at that, we have two of the most improbable World Series championships to show for it.

I'm generalizing, of course, but there's something unique about the team's history that asks one to suspend logic when evaluating the team. I mean, remember the "Always Believe" slogan in 2002? Was Bobby V supposed to be an evangelist or a manager? Hard to tell sometimes. Either way, I always bought in. "Generation K"? Bring it on. "Catch the Energy"? Sold. I believed in Alex Ochoa's five-tools. Ryan Thompson's, too. Carlos Baerga was my favorite player for a while, even though he had a truly awful .266/.303/.364 line in 1998. I honestly didn't care what his line was or what kind of range factor he had. It looked like he genuinely cared about what he was doing. So I believed in him.

In turn, I guess that's what makes this evolution so improbable, at least to me. You see, this lifelong believer is now a fledgling stat-geek. Just one year ago I couldn't have told you what a high FIP meant for someone that was pitching over their head (cough: Oliver Perez: cough) or why WAR is an effective way to measure players (David Wright was robbed of at least one MVP award). I never wrote about any of that stuff in nearly four seasons at MetsBlog. Nope. It was just the basics -- ERA, batting average, homers, RBI. But ever since Adam Wainwright's called third-strike to Carlos Beltran, I have been searching for answers; ones that couldn't be provided by the traditional means of a beat writer or a sports-talk show host. It turns out that I can't get by on faith alone.

As I've told friends and fellow bloggers, Sabermetrics have been like Lasik Eye Surgery to my baseball experience. Revolutionary sites like Fangraphs, Baseball Think Factory, The Hardball Times, Baseball HQ and Baseball Prospectus, among others, have given me the power to evaluate talent at a click. I'm routinely humbled by these new technologies, but recognize their importance and relevancy for the future of our game and enhanced understanding of it. I look forward to observing and discussing our Mets under this microscope. As long as I can throw a little bit of faith in, too.