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ZiPS Player Profile, Garrett Jones
by D.Szymborski on Sep 4, 2009 1:20 AM EDT
71 comments
ZiPS Profile - Garrett Jones, RF (28) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TRANSLATIONS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2002 226 5 31 6 0 6 20 9 100 2 .137 .169 .243 6 2003 413 20 70 10 3 13 48 22 125 3 .169 .213 .303 35 2004 525 29 129 29 1 21 69 22 144 9 .246 .280 .425 82 2005 493 39 107 19 1 20 59 29 117 4 .217 .261 .381 63 2006 532 43 112 28 2 17 75 40 130 2 .211 .266 .367 65 2007 405 38 101 28 2 11 58 26 89 2 .249 .296 .410 82 2008 533 50 134 29 2 19 76 41 106 7 .251 .302 .420 91 2009 279 29 76 18 0 11 43 17 51 11 .272 .313 .455 107 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MLB NUMBERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2007 77 7 16 2 1 2 5 6 20 1 .208 .262 .338 60 2009 214 32 63 14 1 18 34 23 49 9 .294 .363 .621 159 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ PROJECTIONS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2009r 99 12 26 6 0 4 14 7 20 2 .261 .313 .461 105 2010 548 72 152 36 2 26 91 44 118 12 .277 .331 .493 111 2011 516 69 142 32 2 24 83 40 104 12 .275 .327 .484 108 2012 507 67 138 30 2 23 79 40 101 11 .272 .325 .475 105 2013 492 63 131 29 2 21 74 37 99 11 .266 .317 .461 100 2014 485 61 127 28 2 20 71 37 98 9 .262 .313 .452 96 2015 475 58 122 27 2 18 67 36 97 9 .257 .308 .436 91 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top Comps: Ruben Sierra, Mike Davis, Candy Maldonado, Wally Post ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ODDIBE (ODDS OF IMPORTANT BASEBALL EVENTS) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Overall Offense for Starters Top Quintile 18% 2nd Quintile 25% Mid Quintile 18% 4th Quintile 17% Low Quintile 22% OPS+ OBP 3B Hits 160+ 1% .400+ 1% 10+ 0% 200+ 0% 140+ 10% .375+ 8% 5+ 15% 150+ 55% 130+ 23% .350+ 26% 120+ 35% .325+ 57% 2B 110+ 54% .300+ 85% 45+ 15% 100+ 73% 30+ 76% 90+ 86% 80+ 94% 60+ 99% BA SLG HR SB .350+ 1% .550+ 18% 50+ 1% 70+ 0% .325+ 6% .500+ 49% 40+ 7% 50+ 0% .300+ 23% .450+ 79% 30+ 34% 30+ 0% .275+ 53% .400+ 95% 20+ 78% 10+ 59% .250+ 83% .350+ 100% 10+ 99%
71 comments | 0 recs
ZiPS and Kevin Frandsen
by D.Szymborski on Jun 20, 2009 3:25 PM EDT
47 comments
I'm not quite sure if this is kosher, but there were a lot of questions about ZiPS and Kevin Frandsen in a recent thread and I was out of town and unable to give responses. Well, I could have on my cell phone, but my phone doesn't have a swanktastic fold-out or slide-out keyboard and I'd rather take a bath with a toaster than write long sentences without one.
First off, one has to take into account (I'll drop David a note) that the rest-of-season projections on Fangraphs do not take factor in the seasonal minor league performance, simply because David doesn't yet have a mechanism for minor league translations. I recently provided him something for him to turn into such, but he's had a lot to do in maintaining the website before saving me my coding work. When I do RoS projections as part of entries on BTF or Twitter, I do use minor league translations. The Fangraphs RoS projection has no way of knowing that I have Frandsen's 2009 translation at 305/344/415.
There are also a few reasons why Frandsen's 2009 projection was better than his 2008 one. First, a missing season isn't as serious for a hitter as it is a pitcher. Also, SF's expected park factor went up a bit and some less-stellar performances, moved farther into the rear-view mirror.
Here's what I get for Frandsen's performances (minor league translations plus major league statistics)
Year Overall 2004 255/290/314 2005 292/337/372 2006 274/326/375 2007 275/341/381 2008 000/000/000So there wasn't a huge shift in his projection. It would have been higher without him missing 2008 (274/332/385 rather than the 269/325/370 actually predicted).
Majors Only Translation Only Majors and Translation
2009 071/161/071 305/344/415 247/295/344
It helps to think of a projection not just as a seasonal line, but an array of probabilities. ZiPS and other projection systems simply see the midpoint as the likeliest. ZiPS knows there's a chance that Frandsen will have a .900 OPS and also a chance that he'll have a .600 OPS. If you picture a large curve loosely resembling a bell curve, imagine every bit of new data hitting the curve from one side or the other, moving that curve to the right or the left or crushing it down. (This is essentially a really simple way to think of Bayesian inference).
Without the minor league data, all ZiPS on Fangraphs sees as new data is that 2-for-28 stretch. Small sample, sure, but Frandsen's missing 2008 already increases the uncertainty to begin with, enough to make the best guess move from 269/325/370 to 258/316/353. Add that to the numbers already "in the bag" and it's not a great season line.
It's less bleak when we see have his minor league performance for 2009 included. It's a better line, but a larger sample size, so the RoS projection becomes 262/316/361.
You can't not expect the projection to drop off a bit. You take an uncertain player with a .695 projected OPS and give them a little less than half a season of a .639 OPS and you have to lower your expectations (in this case, to .677).
47 comments | 5 recs
Updated ZiPS Projections
by D.Szymborski on Apr 27, 2009 4:42 PM EDT
17 comments
Player Rest of Season Total Olivo 245/268/417 241/262/408 Butler 277/344/426 271/343/411 Callaspo 283/338/372 297/349/394 Aviles 282/313/414 272/301/393 Teahen 273/345/432 280/352/441 DeJesus 286/358/432 278/349/423 Crisp 269/340/399 268/346/416 Bloomquist 265/332/317 268/336/319 Jacobs 260/316/488 260/316/494 Pitcher Rest of Season Total Greinke 11-8, 3.71 15-8, 3.14 Gilgamesh 10-9, 3.95 11-10, 3.78 Davies 7-12, 5.37 8-13, 5.29 Ponson 3-8, 5.97 3-10, 6.12 Soria 2.29 2.25 Wright 4.56 4.14 Cruz 3.15 3.06 Mahay 3.79 4.09 Farnsworth 5.00 5.71 Ramirez 5.09 5.57
17 comments | 1 recs
ZiPS Projections for Gordon, Teahen
by D.Szymborski on Jan 2, 2009 9:27 PM EST
80 comments
2009 ZiPS Projections for Alex Gordon and Mark Teahen
80 comments | 3 recs
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