SB Nation User Blog: DB11

Drafting for 2010

DB11 — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 15:24:40 -0000

After a failed attempt to win a 4X4 AL Only Keeper league in 2008 my roster going into the offseason was bereft of solid keepers so I decided to start the rebuilding process early and start planning for 2010. I traded away fully priced players such as John Lackey, Jermaine Dye, Chone Figgins and Joe Nathan for cheaper players with higher long term upside such as Jed Lowrie, Shin Soo Choo, Alex Gordon and minor league picks.

Here was my strategy for the auction that took place over the weekend:

1) Draft tradable commodities. The two easiest categories to trade to contending teams are saves and steals so with that in mind I drafted:

Papelbon 44-I had a bit of buyer's remorse after this one but when Fuentes 38, Jenks 40, Kerry Wood 40 went quickly after Papelbon as the only available closers I felt much better about my choice.

Crawford 37-I got a bit of an injury discount on Crawford as he went for 47 last year. He has a history of 50 SB seasons and has never been injured before so he will either be a nice trade chip or a decent keep for next season.

2) Injury Discounts:

A-Rod-39. Was hoping to get him under 40 so I was happy with the price. He went for 52 last year so a good keep for 2010 as long as the hip doesn't continue to give him problems.

Joe Mauer-18. I was not really targeting Mauer but the way the draft was unfolding I felt he was going to be a good value under 20. He went for 25 last year so assuming his back is OK he is a good keeper but may be a better trade chip since almost every team has a $1 catcher who is terrible.

Aaron Hill-11. I paid 26 bucks for him last year, which was a disaster, but if he is over the concussion he is a nice keeper for next season

3) Players with long term upside

Salty-12. I was hoping to get him for less than 10 but I think 12 bucks is reasonable for a C who was once a top prospect playing in a great hitter's park.

Felix Pie-3. Before spring training I thought Pie would go for somewhere around 10-15 but he really was awful this spring. I do not think the chances are good that Pie every lives up to his minor league hype but I guess it is worth 3 bucks to find out

4) Young starting pitchers. I went into the draft with zero of my 9 pitching spots filled and my intention was to get at least one closer and a bunch of starters I felt had some upside.

Clay Bucholz-6. My best buy of the draft. Last year he was the number one pitching prospect in baseball. He got beat up in the majors but dominated AAA. I stil think he will be an ace as soon as next year.

Trevor Cahill-4. One of the best prospects in baseball, he will probably get killed this year but long term should be outstanding.

David Purcey-2. Former tough draft pick seemed to put it together at the end of last season

Scott Lewis-2

Kyle Davies-5

Overall I felt that I accomplished what I set out to do. I stuck to my draft strategy even while tanking beers. My minor league system, which had zero players at the end of last season now has Gordon Beckham, Carlos Santana, Lars Anderson, Eric Hosmer, Desmond Jennings, Nick Weglarz and Josh Reddick.

It was not easy giving up 2009 before the season started but I knew that my team was unlikely to compete this year and figured if I bailed early I would get a jump on every else who finds themselves in 9th place in June. Now it is all about the execution.

Draft Results-Mixed 5X5 (A New Strategy - Punt HR & RBI)

DB11 — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 17:36:03 -0000

Yesterday I posted the team I drafted in a 12 team 5X5 mixed league standard except 1 C, 6 starting pitchers and 4 relievers. As I mentioned in that post, pitchers tend to go a bit earlier due to the roster requirements. The team that was drafting from the #2 slot chose an interesting "strategy". As best I can figure he decided to punt HR and RBI, try to win all 5 pitching catgories and focus on SB's, Runs and AVG from his offense.

Last year the top team scored 91, second 84, third 82. The year before the top team had 102 (that was me :), second 83, third 81. So to finish in the money you need around 82 points. This is a decent sized money league, top prize is around 2K (it is $3 a transaction, which adds up) and although this guy is one of the newer members, this is his 3rd draft, so this isn't someone just goofing off on purpose.

For the sake of argument let's say he is able to win all 5 pitching categories and SB (and I won't grant that since I did not always agree that he was taking the best pitcher available either). That is 72 points. He is going to finish last in HR and RBI so that gets him to 74 points. All he needs is a "5" in both AVG and Runs to get 2nd place.

Is that doable with this roster?

C Pudge (26)

1B Sandoval (17)

2B Polanco (15)

3B Figgins (8)

SS Theriot (14)

CI Mora (24)

MI Guzman (22)

OF Damon (10)

OF Crisp (12)

OF Tavares (13)

OF Josh Anderson (21)

U Gardner (23)

SP Johan (1)

SP CC (2)

SP Liriano (3)

SP AJ (4)

SP Lackey (5)

SP Lilly (11)

RP Nathan (6)

RP Rivera (7)

RP Broxton (9)

RP Hanrahan (18)

RS Lyon (19)

RS Smoltz (20)

RS Fontenot

Draft Results-Mixed 5X5

DB11 — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 18:08:07 -0000

Here are the results of an online draft I particpated in last night. It is more or less standard rosters except we only start 1 C and we have to roster 6 starting pitchers and 4 relief pitchers. Due to the 6 starter requirement pitchers tend to go a bit earlier in this league than perhaps they do in others. One team took the drafting pitchers early strategy to an absurd level by selecting for the #2 slot in order: Johan, CC, Liriano, AJ, Lackey, Nathan and Rivera. I was drafting from the #3 slot and had to force myself to reach for pitching so I wasn't shut out of all the good starters. Although I had Doumit, I could not pass up Wieters at 20, he can sit on reserve until he comes up in May.

C Doumit (16)

1B Votto (9)

2B Phillips (4)

3B Aramis (5)

SS Reyes (1)

CI Jacobs (18)

MI Y. Escobar (17)

OF Carlos Lee (2)

OF Hart (7)

OF Either (12)

OF Lastings (15)

OF DeJesus (21)

OF Spiloborghs (22)

SP Peavy (3)

SP Shields (6)

SP Lowe (10)

SP Grienke (11)

SP Wandy (14)

SP Sean Marshall (23)

RP Valverde (8)

RP Bell (13)

RP Motte (19)

RP Nunez (26)

RES Wieters (20)

RES Daniel Murphy (24)

RES Jordan Zimmerman (25)

BP NL LABR Team

DB11 — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 14:59:18 -0000

Here is the team Clay Davenport drafted in the NL LABR. The commentary included is Clay's. I don't really agree with spending that much on two catchers since the injury/getting banged up risk is high. Corners are awesome, MI are horrible. OF has a lot of break out potential, but could flop. Hoffman at 13 is a steal.

$22.00 C Russell Martin
$24.00 C Brian McCann

Because one stud catcher isn’t enough. I had my prices, they weren’t close to being reached, and I got them.

$27.00 1B Joey Votto
$44.00 3B David Wright
$14.00 CM Kevin Kouzmanoff

The corners are what Jason was looking at when he called this a BP team, because those are all BP kind of guys.

$1.00 2B David Newhan
$1.00 SS Ramon Vazquez
$1.00 MI Brendan Ryan

These guys aren’t. The downside of spending $46 at catcher. But I did win LABR two years ago with a $4 infield, so I can live with it.

$17.00 OF Justin Upton
$11.00 OF Cameron Maybin
$6.00 OF Josh Willingham
$3.00 OF Nate Schierholtz
$1.00 OF Gregor Blanco
$8.00 DH Colby Rasmus

That’s a group I really like, but not without risks.

$30.00 P Johan Santana
$13.00 P Trevor Hoffman
$5.00 P Cla Meredith
$8.00 P Rafael Soriano
$7.00 P Joe Blanton
$4.00 P Tony Pena
$9.00 P Oliver Perez
$2.00 P Andrew Miller
$1.00 P Daniel Cabrera
$1.00 P Dennys Reyes

A lot depends on Santana’s elbow. I wasn’t shooting for Hoffman, or any closer; I just couldn’t believe the bidding stopped there. Here’s hoping he’s got another year left in the arm. I’ve always liked Blanton, I had to go for Cla even if I have to ask “y?”, and everybody else has at least some potential. Soriano was an overpay, one I was cussing myself over as soon as I’d made it.

Reserves
Steven Shell
Cha-Seung Baek
Brandon Backe
Nick Evans
Everth Cabrera
Eric Bruntlett

I don’t have great excitement here, except maybe for Baek, who really should have been bought during the draft; I had him at $4, and got him with the seventh pick or so in the draft.

Shandler's NL LABR Team

DB11 — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 14:11:31 -0000

Without knowing all of the other rosters this team looks pretty solid to me. A nice, balanced offense. Excellent closer in Valverde and some saves potential in Gregg. Some question marks with the starting pitchers as Wandy is solid enough but he needs Harang and Snell to bounce back.

CA-D.Ross 1

CA-B.Schneider 2

1B-C.Jackson 20

3B-R.Belliard 8

CO-C.Tracy 9

2B-F.Lopez 18

SS-R.Furcal 28

MI-R.Theriot 17

OF-C.Lee 34

OF-A.Ethier 25

OF-J.Pierre 12

OF-J.Hermida 8

OF-S.Podsednik 1

UT-K.Greene 9

P-A.Harang 16

P-W.Rodriguez 13

P-I.Snell 7

P-Y.Petit 1

P-J.Niese 1

P-D.Davis 1

P-J.Ceda 1

P-B.Bray 2

P-K.Gregg 5

P-J.Valverde 21

R-M.Murton

R-D.Thompson

R-J.Koshansky

R-J.Karstens

R-T.Hudson

R-C.Sampson