SB Nation User Blog: DCRedbird

C.C. Sabathia, Prince Fielder Keep Imagining Each Other As Giant Talking Hot Dog, Hamburger

DCRedbird — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 14:29:52 -0000

C.C. Sabathia, Prince Fielder Keep Imagining Each Other As Giant Talking Hot Dog, Hamburger

Funny story from The Onion about our rivals in Milwaukee.

Albert and consecutive games on-base record...

DCRedbird — Mon, 05 May 2008 15:42:03 -0000

First, I haven't seen it, but my apologies if someone's already covered this on the site in recent days... With his double last night, Albert reached based for the 32nd consecutive game, which got me wondering: What's the all-time record streak for this category? We all know about DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak, but I've never heard who holds the record for consecutive games on base....

Turns out it is Ted Williams, who reached base in 84 consecutive games in 1949 (July 1 through September 27). DiMaggio's 1941 hitting streak helped him post the 2nd highest streak on the list -- 74 consecutive games on base (May 14 through August 2). Williams also holds the 3rd and 4th spots -- 69 straight games in 1941, and 65 games in 1948.

As for players in more recent years: Barry Bonds (as you might expect) has the longest streak -- 58 games in 2003. (That's the longest NL-streak, matching Duke Snider's 58 games in 1954.) Wade Boggs had a 57-game streak in 1985; Ryan Klesko (?!) had a 56-game streak in 2002 for the Padres; and Jim Thome had a 55-game streak for Cleveland in 2002. Stan the Man holds the Cards' record -- Musial reached base in 55 straight cames in 1943. More recently, Vince Coleman reached base in 50 straight games in 1987.

Two questions for everyone to ponder/debate:

1) What do you think Albert's chances are of breaking the Splendid Splinter's record this season (or even DiMaggio's 74, for that matter)?

2) What's the more impressive record (or -- perhaps a slightly different question -- which will be the toughest to break): Ted Williams's on-base streak, or DiMaggio's hitting streak?

As for #1, I'd put Albert's chances at about 15 percent; 84-straight is a hell of a lot of games.

For #2 -- tough call. Obviously it's a little easier simply to reach base in a game than to get a hit... but keeping any sort of streak alive depends on a fantastic combination of talent and sheer luck, so Williams's 84-straight-games on-base streak looms pretty large to me given the huge number of consecutive games where he had to do something right (either get a hit, draw a walk, or get plunked). So I'd give that the slight nod over the great DiMaggio hitting streak. I'd be surprised to see either one broken anytime soon, but my guess is DiMaggio's might be a little easier to crack.

J-Rod: the next Lenny Harris/Manny Mota?

DCRedbird — Thu, 21 Sep 2006 15:45:57 -0000

For some reason I just can't shake my J-Rod fixation. Earlier this year, I wrote a diary arguing for John Rodriguez to get a shot as our full-time left fielder. Obviously that didn't happen - and I'm glad, given how well Young Duncan has performed. So has J-Rod lost his best chance to stick around for a while in The Show?

Maybe not. I think he might be on his way to becoming a great pinch-hitter, in the mold of Lenny Harris and Manny Mota.

A few folks noted J-Rod's good pinch-hitting qualities in last night's game thread, after he doubled pinch-hitting for Suppan in the 8th inning. And twice in one week earlier this month, J-Rod pinch-hit in the ninth with the Cardinals down a run and facing a tough closer (Washington's Chad Cordero and Houston's Brad Lidge). Both times, he hit solid singles after getting into 2-strike counts, setting the table for a later batter to get the go-ahead/game-winning hit (P-Wilson's homer in Washington, which would've been the game-winner had Izzy not later imploded, and Albert's broken-bat double against Lidge). LaRussa seems to like J-Rod in this role, and so far he's flourished in it. He has a great approach at the plate, and responds well to the pressure of hitting against a tough pitcher after coming off the bench cold.

Great pinch hitters like Mota, Harris, and Smokey Burgess hung around the big leagues for a long time (15+ years) b/c of their pinch-hitting ability. Maybe our favorite Bronx Redbird can do the same.... it's not the same as starting, but it's also not a bad way to make a living and stay in the majors.

For a very thorough overview of the history of pinch-hitting (and some thoughts on its future), see this piece that Steve Treder wrote for the Hardball Times back in February.

Free J-Rod!

DCRedbird — Tue, 25 Apr 2006 16:23:33 -0000

In last night's game thread, reader bgh got a discussion going re: John Rodriguez/J-Rod with this comment: "Of course, isn't it fairly obvious at this point that Rodriguez needs to be penciled into the LF slot every day for the next month to see what exactly we have with him?"

I can't imagine anyone disagreeing with this (unless people would rather just promote John Gall instead). I've made no secret on this site of my desire to see Rodriguez get a real shot at some extended, everyday playing time. Bernie Miklasz is on board, too. But perhaps a few doubters remain (including Tony LaRussa). So I thought it would be worthwhile to lay out the comprehensive "Case for J-Rod" to be our everyday left-fielder (until he proves he can't handle it, anyway).

First, let's review the raw numbers. In 2004, at the Yankees' AAA affiliate in Columbus, Rodriguez posted these very solid numbers in 112 games:
378 abs 16 hr 68 rbi .294/.382/.542/.924. We all remember J-Rod's insane line at Memphis last year: In 34 games, he hit 17 hrs and put up .342/.419/.808/1.227. This hot streak earned him his first ticket to The Show when Reggie Sanders got hurt, and he produced this in 149 major-league abs last year: 5 hr, 24 rbi, .295/.382/.436/.818. Granted, this came mostly against RH pitching, but his platoon split wasn't bad at all -- his power dropped but his average and OBP remained high:

vs. Left-- 27 abs, .296/.441/.296/.737
vs. Right -- 122 abs, .295/.367/.467/.834

Rodriguez continued to mash in winter ball - at one point near the end of the winter league season, through 65 abs, his line was: 6 hr 23 rbi .354/.443/.708/1.151. And this year, despite his bouts with a balky shoulder and bad shrimp, he's put up a .368/.435/.526/.961 line in 19 abs.

Enough numbers. I concede these are all limited sample sizes . . . but taken together, they draw a portrait of a guy who (whatever his shortcomings in the field or on the base paths) has become a good professional hitter. J-Rod takes mature, patient at-bats -- and unlike the "Skipguchi" combo (as DanUp likes to say), he gets on base and actually has some pop in his bat - which is kind of important in a corner outfielder, no?

To me, the first sign that J-Rod was for real was the patient quality of his at-bats in last year's NLCS. Game 2: He pinch-hit in the 7th inning and drew a walk from Roy Oswalt. Game 3: Pinch-hitting again, he drew a walk from Brad Lidge and later scored a run. Game 4: After Jim Edmond's meltdown and ejection, J-Rod comes in cold to finish the at-bat against Dan Wheeler, on a 3-2 count. Keep in mind, the guy had had maybe 5 live at-bats in the previous month. He comes in, fouls off two pitches, then hits a 425-foot bomb to that stupid CF "berm" in Minute Maid Park -- a shot that in just about any other park would have tied that critical game, but in this case was caught for out number 3. Game 6: Pinch-hitting again, he hits a sac fly against Oswalt to plate the Cards' only run of the game. In the pressure-cooker of the playoffs, this 27-year-old rookie demonstrated a lot more nerve and plate discipline than many of his more seasoned teammates.

In his mlb.com diary during the NLCS, here's how Rodriguez described his mental process during the Game 4 pinch-hit for Edmonds:

"I knew I had to get on one way or the other. The difference this time was that I only had one pitch to work with because it was a full count. Pressure situations are what pinch-hitters are for. The majority of the time, it's going to be that way. I had a 3-2 count, and I knew he didn't want to walk me because he had Albert Pujols behind me. It was either going to be: miss a pitch, walk me and face Pujols or have Brad Lidge face Pujols, or pitch to me -- a rookie. So that's what I put in my head. I knew they didn't want to walk me. I was just looking for a strike, something to drive. The first pitch I fouled off was a good pitch, a fastball down. I fouled it back. The next pitch was a slider down the middle, and I fouled that one back. I just tried to not think so much. Just go out there and try to put the bat on the ball the best I could. I just hit it to the wrong part of the park. Not too many fields, probably only this one, is it 436 feet. So I can't be too mad about my swing."

Situational awareness: What a beautiful thing! Unlike some other players currently starting regularly for the Cardinals, J-Rod seems to understand the importance of seeing pitches and getting on base in front of Albert.

For more examples of J-Rod's smart approach, look at the last series with the Cubs. In last Friday's game, he hit in the #2 hole. First inning: one out, Rodriguez singles - thus giving Albert a runner on base when he hits his HR. Second inning: sacks loaded, none out - J-Rod avoids the two absolute no-no's in this situation (strikeout or double play). He takes two balls, fouls one off, takes another ball, and then hits a sac fly to score the runner on 3rd. Not as good as a hit or a walk, but he avoids the worst-case situation and leaves runners on base for Pujols. Sixth inning: one on, one out - takes a strike, then four straight balls, thus getting on base once again in front of Albert.

Then in Saturday's game, J-Rod pinch-hit for Ponson in the 5th. One on, two out, score tied. He takes a ball, fouls one off, takes a called strike. Then he takes two more balls, fouls off a pitch, and then takes ball four, putting two men on base in front of the team's other hot-hitter at the moment, Eckstein - who promptly singles to start a 3-run rally that proves to be the difference in the game.

"OK, OK," you say. "The guy can hit, but he's a liability in the field and on the bases, so let's platoon him with Taguchi. Gooch did finally show some signs of life last night, after all. And can J-Rod hit lefties on a regular basis?" On this last point, see his platoon split last year, above. Or go back to the Cubs series again, when LaRussa finally gave Rodriguez his first AB of the year against a lefty, Cubs reliever Will Ohman. Rodriguez hit a laser to the CF warning track - an out, but a hard out. The only way we'll know if he can hit lefties consistently is to give him the playing time to prove it.

I'm not saying that John Rodriguez is the answer to all our offensive woes this season. But what more does the guy have to do to get an extended audition in LF (as opposed to just platooning)? Now is the perfect time. Bigbie is rehabbing in Memphis - and who knows what, if anything, he'll bring to the table when he's called up. Our offense is desperate for more production from the outfield. The #2 hole is begging for someone with several qualities: 1) a lefty, to give us the R-L-R-L-R balance in the order that LaRussa craves; 2) a batter with some pop to provide TLR his beloved "damage" from that spot; 3) someone who isn't Edmonds (TLR made clear after last night's game that Jed would not be a regular in the #2 spot); and 4) someone who (unlike indiscriminate hackers like Encarnacion) understands the importance of seeing pitches and getting on base -- especially in front of a guy who's currently putting on one of the greatest hitting displays we're ever likely to see. If Taguchi and Schumaker must play, let them spell Edmonds or Encarnacion as needed -- but put J-Rod in left field and the #2 spot every day and see what he can do!

Thoughts, criticisms? Fire away, everyone.

[UPDATE: As I post this I see that reader farley503 has made a similar case for J-Rod in this morning's thread.]

Nats fans respond to Marquis-for-Wilkerson idea

DCRedbird — Tue, 22 Nov 2005 16:36:49 -0000

On the Nationals SBNation blog, "Federal Baseball," they've taken note of the discussions here re: a Marquis/Brad Wilkerson swap:

http://www.federalbaseball.com/story/2005/11/15/132632/85

Nats bloggers are lukewarm on this deal (they want more in return for Wilkerson), but it seems the Nats organization is down on Wilkerson and want to deal him -- they think he strikes out too much. He does whiff quite a bit (154 Ks/season the last 4 years). We all like his OBP line, but does the K issue concern anyone, if the idea is to bat him #2 b/w Eck and Albert?

Anyway, here's the heart of Federal Baseball's assessment:

"As both Chris and the el Birdos blog point out, Wilkerson is more valuable straight-up. Even in a miserable season racked by injuries, fatigue, and something just short of guerilla warfare with Jose 'Four Bats' Guillen, Wilkerson posted a .351 on-base percentage. To use an established stathead modifier for something not star-quality, yet totally under-appreciated, that's 'tasty.' He is as versatile as he is solid defensively, and his true power potential is probably somewhere in between 'powerful' (2004) and 'mere modicum' (2005). Wilkerson's not better than second- or third-level in terms of star potential; he might make an all-star team one of these years based on a strong first half, but he'll never even enter the suburb of the discussion of elite players. Furthermore, his historical comps have aged rather poorly.... Nevertheless, Wilkerson's a valuable player; he could easily start in a contender's lineup.

"As for Marquis, he finished in strong fashion (remember when, faced with the prospect of demotion to long relief, he threw a 'surprise' shut-out at RFK around Labor Day?) and ended up with a 4.13 ERA, which isn't bad at all. Furthermore, Marquis is only 27, yet seemingly more mature than when he was pitching in my hometown of Richmond; word was that he struggled with, shall we say, the 'mental aspects of pitching.' Nevertheless, his strikeout rate bottomed out a bit past the old 4.5 per nine innings danger zone, and his Fielding Independent Pitching ERA of 4.83 was obviously rather steep. In addition, while RFK's power repression qualities will cut into this vulnerability somewhat, Marquis has shown some propensity to serve up homers---and remember that he'd be making anywhere from 40-60% of his starts on the road.

"Thus, as a question of pure 'value,' the Nationals would likely be making a bad trade. While Marquis would fill a hole in the rotation (perhaps exacerbated by Loaiza's likely departure), and while Wilkerson became rather notorious at RFK for his ability to strike out on near-command, Wilkerson's really the more valuable player. Given the two players' best seasons, Wilkerson would hold more value; given the two players' worst seasons, and Wilkerson's ability to get on-base would ensure that he still provided more value."

*
One obstacle to making this trade happen is that the Nats are pretty distracted -- they're still w/out ownership or a lease for their new stadium, mostly b/c Selig and Co. are twiddling their thumbs; and GM Jim Bowden is busy interviewing for the Boston GM job. Meanwhile they're making head-scratching moves like signing Marlon Anderson to a 2-year, $1.85 million contract...

Worried about facing the Phillies?

DCRedbird — Fri, 19 Aug 2005 12:21:05 -0000

Howdy everyone -- I'm a life-long Cards fan who just discovered the world of Cards blogs a few months ago. I've really enjoyed this site, and I figured it was finally time to create an account and join in all the great conversations on VEB.

Anyway, I remember seeing a site poll midway through the season (June 30) asking readers which potential playoff matchup they feared the most. The Flubs topped the list, with the Marlins coming in second. Then at the beginning of this month the same question was asked again, and the Astros (understandably) came out on top by a wide margin: http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/poll/1122895118_LZdCQiLu

What's interesting is that the Phillies weren't even an option in that 2nd poll -- and now just a few weeks later, here they are sitting atop the wild card standings. I remember that the Phils really seemed to have our number this year -- took 4 out of 6 from us, outscoring us by a total of 46-31. Granted, these two series were very early (early April and mid May), the bullpen was a mess back then, etc. Still, anyone else here as worried as I am about the possibility of seeing these guys again in October?

-DCRedbird