DGU
Mar 17, 2008 May 09, 2010 133 10600
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Still wish we had signed Raul Ibanez?
Last year, Ibanez was worth 2.6 wins more than Bradley, and I won't even begin to suggest what chemistry value would have been there, but surely it wouldn't have been enough to catch the Cards. So, had we signed Ibanez, would we have traded Fukudome this past off-season?
Sherman says trade Silva for Sherrill and Carroll
I think the Cubs say yes to this deal, but to make it realistic would have to send back more; maybe Baker would be enough. But I don't think anyone puts themselves on the hook for Silva's dollars until he's done this a lot longer. Gorzelanny seems more realistic to go; maybe Gorz for Ramon Troncoso.
The Offense, plus What's Wrong with Aramis' Swing?
by DGU on Apr 22, 2010 12:07 PM EDT
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
Coming into the season, the players we were concerned about were Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto, and the middle IF mishmash. Well, so far Soriano and Soto are leading the team in OPS, while Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker look like the makings of a productive-enough platoon. We can be concerned that Fukudome has given up his patience without getting a return in SLG, but it's early. (Check here for a nice summary of the Cubs' hitting.)
Is Alfonso Soriano a Better Leadoff Hitter than Ryan Theriot?
by DGU on Apr 19, 2010 8:48 AM EDT
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
This fanpost is not arguing we should return Soriano to the leadoff spot. Rather, the point is that if you thought Soriano was bad as a lead-off hitter, Ryan Theriot is worse. This claim isn't based on the small sample of 2010 stats, but rather based on what we know about these hitters, without overlooking Soriano's disastrous 2009.
Five Questions in My Mind as the Season Opens
by DGU on Apr 4, 2010 6:35 PM EDT
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
UPDATED: Projecting 2010 Pitching Cubs v. Cards
by DGU on Feb 15, 2010 11:35 PM EST
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
If you head on over to baseballprojections.com, you can find the CHONE projections for many, many players. CHONE is nice because it's cheap and named after a guy Jim Hendry didn't overpay to get.
| CHC-Name | CHC-IP | CHC-ERA | CHC-RvRep | StL-Name | StL-IP | StL-ERA | StL-RvRep | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starter 1 | C. Zambrano | 181 | 4.28 | 29 | A. Wainwright | 181 | 3.53 | 35 |
| Starter 2 | T. Lilly | 173 | 4.21 | 26 | C. Carpenter | 116 | 3.1 | 30 |
| Starter 3 | R. Dempster | 179 | 4.12 | 30 | K. Lohse | 157 | 4.18 | 19 |
| Starter 4 | R. Wells | 153 | 4.53 | 17 | B. Penny | 160 | 4.11 | 22 |
| Starter 5 | T. Gorzelanny | 157 | 4.47 | 21 | R. Hill | 98 | 4.22 | 9 |
| Starter 6 | C. Silva | 107 | 5.05 | 9 | M. Boggs | 149 | 4.53 | 9 |
| Closer | C. Marmol | 70 | 3.34 | 10 | R. Franklin | 66 | 3.68 | 5 |
| Setup | J. Grabow | 63 | 4.29 | 1 | J. Motte | 61 | 3.69 | 5 |
| Setup | A. Guzman | 37 | 3.89 | 3 | D. Reyes | 41 | 3.73 | 3 |
| Middle | S. Marshall | 59 | 3.97 | 4 | K. McClellan | 63 | 3.71 | 4 |
| Middle | J. Gray | 64 | 4.5 | 1 | T. Miller | 42 | 3.64 | 3 |
| Long/Swing | J. Stevens | 61 | 4.13 | 3 | B. Hawksworth | 124 | 4.57 | 8 |
| Total | 1304 | 4.23 | 154 | 1258 | 3.89 | 152 |
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Some of the best players in history came to camp at 19 or 20 and made it," Hendry said. "I think in a realistic world, [Starlin Castro] would probably need a little more time."
about 2 years ago
DGU
123 comments
2 recs
On new ownership and arbitration hearings, a Giant perspective
Andrew Baggarly's a good writer and this is a good article, even if it doesn't directly have anything to do with the Cubs. Click the link and you'll read an explanation of why the Giants may want to keep down Lincecum's salary, besides just the immediate savings, but more interestingly, how ownership changes have affected the San Francisco Giants.
Depth
by DGU on Jan 27, 2010 10:12 AM EST
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
Last year when Aramis went down, the Cubs flailed at finding a replacement. We had brought Corey Koskie to camp, but he was unable to overcome his post-concussion problems. That left us with Bobby Scales, Mike Fontenot, and eventually Ryan Freel and Jake Fox. Lack of depth didn't kill us, but it sure looked ugly and probably added to the demoralization in the clubhouse.
If I do what I’m supposed to do, the Cubs will win." - Ryan Theriot
"I think Hendry is doing a great job." - Tom Ricketts
Lou sees Cubs adding 8-10 wins...
..."if we stay relatively healthy."
Full quote:
"If we can win 83 baseball games with all the problems that we had last year, all the injuries we had ... we lost 10 or 12 players for over 30 days," he said. "That's unbelievable.
"If we can win 83 ballgames with all these problems, all these injuries ... if we stay relatively healthy, we can add another 8-10 wins to this thing and give ourselves a chance at the postseason."
Brandon Jones DFA'd
Jones was once a Top 100 prospect. You can read what Sickels thought of him just 9 months ago, here. I'n fanshotting this because Jones is the kind of player Jim Hendry has taken good risks on before. He'd also fit our team, offering about as much as we'd hoped Ryan Church might if he was healthy.
Analyzing the Changes in the Cubs' Expected 2010 Offense (Edited with Comparison to the Cardinals)
by DGU on Jan 2, 2010 7:25 PM EST
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
The Cubs' offense accounts for much of the story between our dramatic shift from 97 win juggernaut to an 83 win disappointment. We went from the best NL offense to the 10th best, from 855 runs scored to 707 runs scored. Amazingly, the difference from our 2008-2009 runs allowed was only one run. We'll want to investigate what to expect from 2010's pitching when we're sure that we have the final pitching roster. For now, we've got a pretty good idea what the 2010 offense will be. It's possible Jim Hendry will find a bargain 2B to add, but it's not likely such an addition will improve the projections. It would also be a good idea to add more OF depth, as I've argued a number ot times. But even if we do add someone like Ryan Church or Scott Hairston or Ryan Spilborghs, and even if they do end up with 400 PAs, spelling all of our OFs, we've got a decent enough picture of the Cubs' offense to start analyzing it.
Below is a chart showing the 2009 NL averages for offense, followed by the 2009 Cubs' actual offense, followed by the 2010 CHONE Cub projections. As we can see, there are some reasons for concern and also some reasons for good expectations. One thing to note is that neither the '09 averages nor the '09 Cubs #s reflect any one players's #s in the way the 2010 CHONE projections do. Replacement players sub in and dilute those actual numbers. So, we shouldn't just compare those numbers straight to the 2010 CHONE projections for the starters. Some of the starters will play over 155 games, but not all of them.
200 comments
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We're counting on you, Andy! (Orioles in on Holliday)
Ideal situation - O's get Holliday, Braves get Damon, Cards get Nady and a disappointed Albert.
Who put the Kool-aid in my egg nog: Predicting the rest of the off-season with an optimistic eye
by DGU on Dec 22, 2009 10:45 AM EST
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
There's such a thing as too much optimism and too much Seligian "hope and faith." I hope I'm not so unrealistic as to predict Jim's next moves included a trade of Micah Hoffpauir and Carlos Silva for Grady Sizemore. But the more I've been thinking about CF, the more I've been thinking a trade first mentioned as a dream is possible. Maybe my egg nog's been spiked. But in the holiday spirit, perhaps we can all talk what we'd like to see now that Milton's gone. I'm going to try and make a case for why the following is possible, and you can shoot it up with holes, if you like, or better yet, come up with your own optimistic plan.
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Who's the NL Central Favorite as of Today?
by DGU on Dec 17, 2009 3:26 PM EST
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
The debate at BCB right now is whether the Cubs have a chance at the NL Central, or should fold on 2010 and begin the rebuild. To argue that we should fold and rebuild means that you assume we don't have a shot at 2010. Rather than just trying to eyeball the divisions, I wanted to take a systematic look based on statistical projections. Bill James' projections aren't my favorite, but fangraphs have them for everyone to see. So, in the chart below, I have the hitters scored by runs created per 27 outs and the pitchers scored by ERA. If that stat's a little foreign to you, go to fangraphs.com to see more traditional stats for each of these players projected.
Three of the players in the chart below are not projected by Bill James and I substituted CHONE projections - Manzella, Freese, and Mather.
And you certainly don't have to tell me that this is not the best way to do this, nor very precise, etc. If this fanpost encourages someone to do it better, I'll be as glad as anyone. I'd also be interested in seeing the results by CHONE, etc.
118 comments
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Non-Tender Thread: Cubs & Others
by DGU on Dec 12, 2009 5:10 PM EST
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
The Cubs are tendering contracts to Carlos Marmol, Ryan Theriot, Jeff Baker, Angel Guzman, Sean Marshall, Koyie Hill, Tom Gorzelanny, and Mike Fontenot. Neal Cotts is non-tendered, but will be offered a minor league contract. It's unknown if he'll accept.
So far, among the interesting non-tenders for the Cubs are Kelly Johnson, Chien-Ming Wang, and Scott Olsen. Ryan Church was removed earlier when Rafael Soriano accepted arbitration.
Something Aaron Miles Was the Best At, or Baserunning 2009
by DGU on Dec 3, 2009 8:52 AM EST
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
I wanted to find some baserunning statistics and was coming up empty (maybe I just don't know where to look) until I discovered that Baseball Prospectus has a section of their statistics site up for baserunning. It should come as no surprise to people who've been to BP before that they use all sorts of odd sounding abbreviations like GA_OPPS, EqSBR, and EqOAR, but once you figure out what they all mean (through BP's stats glossary), it starts to take a clear shape. (At least I think it does. Hopefully some of the more statistically inclined here on BCB can come and confirm or correct what I'm trying to understand and explain here. Paging Shawn Goldman!)
The first thing to understand is the expected runs matrix BP works with. For example, in 2004, a team with no outs and a man on second averaged 1.1596 runs. A team with no outs and a man on third averaged 1.4535 runs, and a team with one out and the bases empty averaged .2866 runs. So if Kosuke Fukudome leads off with a double, but then decides to try and steal third, he's taking a big risk. If he succeeds, he could add a scant average of about .3 runs, but if he fails, he could take away a brutal average of about 1.2 runs.
So, if we added up all the extra expected runs a player's baserunning added and took away, we would have a way to value how many expected runs a player was worth on the bases. To do this, BP tracks opportunities for advancement, split into various categories. How many times did a player take the opportunity to advance from first to third on a hit? How many times did a player take the opportunity to tag up on a fly ball? Then, these tallied opportunities are compared to what the average ML runner did. Then adjustments are made for park effects, etc. What results is Equivelant Baserunning Runs or EqBRR.
Theriot, Castro, and the Future Middle Infield
Article tells us (among several other things):
1) Theriot has been told to prepare for a move to 2B.
2) Castro could break camp with the Cubs this year.
3) It's "believed" Castro is untouchable in trade negotiations.
about 2 years ago
DGU
48 comments
1 recs
Miguel Cabrera Available, which leads me to ask if Granderson really is available
If the Tigers trade Cabrera, they save 20 M. What need, then, to trade Granderson or Jackson?
Cubs 2010 2B and "the L word"
by DGU on Nov 21, 2009 11:03 PM EST
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
There has been some speculation that the Cubs would be fine with Jeff Baker at 2B. However, in the most recent Paul Sullivan piece, he writes:
One of the more popular free agents on the market, the Cardinals' DeRosa is drawing no interest from his former team, despite inquiries made to the Indians last May after Aramis Ramirez's shoulder injury. The Cubs still prefer a left-handed hitting second baseman, which is why they're interested in the switch-hitting Castillo.
Now, there's a statement to raise the ire of many different Cub partisans - those who love DeRo, those who don't want Castillo, those who want to see Jeff Baker get the job, and those who thought we were past the LH obsession.
Now it is possible that Sullivan is mis-reading things, that the Cubs are planning to split 2B evenly between Fontenot and Baker and that there's "interest" in Castillo only as a Bradley exit strategy. But I figure it's worth reconsidering what the 2B options are, with Bill James projections a guess at defensive value based on the past three years of UZR.
On Harden and the Players Jim Hendry Lets Go
by DGU on Nov 15, 2009 9:10 PM EST
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
Without access to health records, Rich Harden looks like a great candidate to offer arbitration - at the very least, if not offer an incentive-based contract. Yes, he kills bullpens, but not if you pair him with Sean Marshall who also lacks endurance to be a starter. Yes, he can be maddening, breaking down, but when healthy, he is the best pitcher in baseball. I can understand thinking Harden isn't worth a long-term contract, but that Jim Hendry wouldn't even offer arbitration mystifies me.
101 comments
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Hendry's Offseason Strategy
Bruce Miles has an interesting article up with some good quotes from Hendry on his off-season strategy.
"As we've been saying from Day One, we need them to play better. But you're also going to see good players available late. I'm sure there will be some quality non-tenders. There will be some free agents that will be available late in the year as it was last year, maybe even more so this year.
"I think it's going to be an important winter for us if we can pick up some pieces that are good, quality depth-type of guys or guys that can play a few positions."
To me, this sounds like lesson learned - rather than have an off-season fixated on one answer and moving quickly to achieve that goal, Jim intends to lay back, build depth, and employ the ability to get bargains he so excels at in-season.
So, here's my question - anyone have some ideas on non-tenders we should keep our eyes open for
The Only CF That Fits for 2010
by DGU on Nov 10, 2009 4:04 PM EST
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
The Cubs want to move Fukudome back to RF and get a CF. There is a good CF available in Mike Cameron. He wouldn't be a bad acquisition, but he's RH and strikes out a lot and is old enough that sudden decline could be a big problem. Plus, with a tight budget, he could easily be cost prohibitive. The Cubs would obviously prefer a LH CF, a younger CF, and a CF with better speed. Curtis Granderson and Carlos Beltran would both be great, except their teams would have to be foolish to trade them for anything but an overwhelming offer. Indeed, both players have had trade rumors debunked.
129 comments
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Not a rumor, Bruce Miles speculates on a Bradley trade with good return
I didn't want to put this in the title, but Bruce Miles speculates on a possible Bradley+Prospects for Halladay at this link. So, some won't believe this is even possible because it's Halladay (whose $$$ price tag alone may easily be a budget buster). But do you think a deal like this is the way for Hendry to go - not to eat the $$$, but to give up prospects to incline a team like the Jays to eat the contract?
Lost in the Toronto Rumor: Olney's Suggested Swaps
This got lost in debunking the Toronto rumor (and also probably lost behind the subscriber wall), but Olney made some suggestions on who the Cubs might more realistically get: Carlos Silva, Derek Lowe, Gary Matthews Jr., Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, Oliver Perez, and Dontrelle Willis. How do you rank these guys?
over 2 years ago
DGU
61 comments
1 recs
Why Other Teams Should Want Milton Bradley
by DGU on Oct 29, 2009 12:52 PM EDT
on Bleed Cubbie Blue
As Cub fans, we just watched a disappointing season end with the team putting a lot of the blame on Bradley. Seeing Milton carry the albatross of destroying a 97-win team, we wonder why anyone would want him. And yet there are reports saying Jim Hendry is able to negotiate with a solid number of teams. Certainly there are some teams that have made it clear they don't want players with character problems - the Angels and the Indians, for example. And there are teams that Bradley wore out his welcome with and won't go back to. But I think there are reasons that the market for Bradley could be bigger than just teams looking to dump bad contracts of their own. It strikes me, for example, that Bradley's situation is awfully reminiscent of the Angels's situation with Jose Guillen in 2004. Guillen had been suspended for the last 8 days of the season after a dugout tantrum that was the last straw. Now, Guillen only cost 3.5 M and for only one year. But he netted Juan Rivera and Maicer Izturis.
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Tim Dierkes' Cubs' Offseason Plan: Keep Milton
Two quotes to sum up:
"My advice: work it out, rather than eating $15MM+ or taking on a different bad contract. Bradley is not the reason the Cubs received over 2,000 plate appearances of subpar hitting from Soriano, Fontenot, Soto, Hill, Hoffpauir, and Miles, nor is he the reason Ramirez was limited to 342 PAs due to a shoulder injury."
and
"The Cubs are a pricey team with room for little more than tinkering. GM Jim Hendry will need to push the right buttons this winter after a 2008-09 offseason filled with miscalculations."
He also suggests Billy Wagner might be a good pickup if $$$ allowed.
over 2 years ago
DGU
38 comments
1 recs
Stephen Drew to be shopped?
This links to a long article by Nick Cafardo that includes information about Jaramillo as well. What interests me, however, is the idea that the D'backs would shop Stephen Drew. If so, I'd hope the Cubs would be in on this. As a left-handed SS with power, platooned, Drew could fit our lineup very well. Additionally, Tracy Ringolsby is saying that Brad Hawpe is not going to be on the market, which makes me wonder if one of Carlos Gonzalez, Seth Smith, or Dexter Fowler might be.
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