SB Nation User Blog: DGU

Hitters Recap July 6-12

DGU — Sun, 13 Jul 2008 17:27:56 -0000

Mike Fontenot's OPS is greater than the sum of Edmonds' and Fukudome's. Aramis Ramirez' SLG is greater than D-Lee's OPS. Ryan Theriot is the anti Three True Outcomes player. Matt Murton leaves for the greener uniforms of Oakland with a .167 OPS. And why not have 14 pitchers, when neither Cedeno nor Blanco are going to play anyway?

G. Soto .231/.250/.500, 5 R, 4 RBI, 22 Outs (2 DP)

K. Fukudome 23 PA, .200/.261/.250, 2 R, 1 RBI, 16 Outs (CS)

A. Ramirez 28 PA, .389/.500/.944, 4 R, 9 RBI, 16 Outs (2 DP)

D. Lee 29 PA, .333/.448/.458, 4 R, 4 RBI, 16 Outs (0 DP!)

R. Theriot 29 PA, .481/.517/.481, 5 R, 2 RBI, 15 Outs (2 DP, CS)

M. DeRosa 26 PA, .250/.423/.350, 5 R, 2 RBI, 14 Outs

M. Murton 12 PA, .083/.083/.083, 0 R, 2 RBI, 11 Outs

R. Johnson 15 PA, .286/.267/.286, 3 R, 1 RBI, 11 Outs

J. Edmonds 17 PA, .200/.294/.534, 3 R, 4 RBI, 11 Outs

M. Fontenot 22 PA, .375/.500/.875, 6 R, 5 RBI, 11 Outs (DP)

D. Ward 7 PA, .286/.286/.571, 0 R, 0 RBI, 5 Outs

R. Cedeno 1 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0 Outs (Who remembers what Ronny's 1 PA was that led to neither an out nor an OBP point?)

H. Blanco - DNP

"Three True Outcomes" is a phrase describing the events that take place between batter and pitcher, with no reference to the defense. A SO, a BB, and a HR are the three "true" outcomes, events totally controlled by the man on the mound and the man in the batter's box. Classic Three True Outcomes hitters include Adam Dunn and Russel Branyan. Making a twist on this description, I'd point to Ryan Theriot, who doesn't strike out often, doesn't hit a HR often, and has been getting less walks each month since May. The outcome of Theriot ABs will most often be in the hands of the defense, especially the infielders. He'll either hit a single, make an out, or make two by hitting into a twin killing (2nd on the team only to D-Lee). Given that fact, here's a question. If you were an opposing defense facing Theriot, would you put on a shift in which one or two OFs are brought in to play defense in the shallow OF?

I was pretty harsh on Reed Johnson's #s v. RHP last week, but I have to say that our bench sure looks nicer having both him and Ward back. For all the anti-Cedeno hate we've heard recently, Cedeno is an awfully good backup SS to have on roster. Compare our division rivals' OPSes: Keppinger .737, Miles .715, Cedeno .692, Counsell .689, Gomez .681, Rivas .673, Izturis .624, Blum .599, Ryan .583. I stil believe Cedeno could pick that up given regular playing time if called on. Add Henry Blanco's .344 OBP at backup C and Mike Fontenot as Wonder Hamster and the Cubs have a good bench. The one thing lacking on this bench is some speed. So, who fits that bill? Another trade?

Last week's MVP was Mark DeRosa with 55% of the vote to Geovany Soto with 20%.

Poll

MVP for this week:

Don't boo Marmol - this is all on Lou's head.

DGU — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 20:31:10 -0000

Lou broke Marmol. It's that simple. Enough of the He-Must-Be-Oveworked-To-Be-Effective theory. It was never likely. No. Marmol was overworked and now he is ineffective. It's all on Lou. If we can't get Marmol back on track, we are now less likely to win in the playoffs because of Lou's management.

This is what I've meant when I've warned about the Win Now ("now" defined as the game immediately in front of you and not the 2008 WS) mentality. Baseball is a marathon and Lou had Marmol sprint through the entire first half of the season.

This team is a historically good team whose odds of making the post-season are greater than 9 out of 10. It's way past time to start taking care of the players and making sure we have the best team on the field, not in July, but in October.

Poll

What's happened to Carlos Marmol?

Croweaters Anonymous

DGU — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 20:05:04 -0000

Hi, I'm DGU and I'm wrong from time to time about baseball.

I think we need a healthy forum where we can post the things we were joyously wrong about this season (or are at least looking wrong about). Just this week there are some funny posts in retrospect about what it would take to get Harden that might barbecue well for smoked crow. Farther back some Edmonds posts are fit for crow pasta, cooked al dente (you know, al dente, "not quite done"). And surely we haven't forgotten some Dempster crow, processed, chilled, and put into the ice cream maker Iron Chef style.

I'll start with my own crow dish. I was wrong about Mike Fontenot. In April I argued that Fontenot was never going to hit ML pitching again and said, "We have a guy in Mike Fontenot, who Jason Marquis should hit for." I claimed more than once that he was worthless for our roster. There may still be players with more utility than him for our roster, but he's hitting awfully well for a bench player. This crow's been a slow cooker, stuffed with sneaky power, fastidiously basted by Lou getting Fonty into the lineup regularly. All in all, it's tasting good right now.

Anyone else ready to share their personal crow recipes? Allez cuisine!

The Price for Pitching Is Set and It Is a Price We Can Most Certainly Pay

DGU — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 03:59:44 -0000

The Brewers did us a favor paying so little for C.C. Sabathia. Clearly, we weren't going to match with Cleveland anyway, and now the price for pitchers is lower than expected.

Matt LaPorta is a top 50 prospect, but I can't say he is that much more valuable at this point than Sean Gallagher. Gallagher's ceiling is lower but he is an altogether more certain commodity. Zach Jackson, Taylor Green, and Rob Bryson are the other players rumored to be in the deal. None were top ten prospects for the Brewers pre-season. There is some potential there, but nothing so sparkly that you couldn't find something similar in the Cubs' system.

In the most general terms, we could have outbid this package. Of course, trades don't work in general. The Indians wanted the pure power that LaPorta looks to offer and we didn't have that piece. Other teams are more likely to want pitching or players at skill positions - which is what we do have.

Keith Law says of this price:

I am surprised that Cleveland didn't let the market play out into July and allow other teams to jump in and potentially drive up the price, because this offer, on its face, doesn't strike me as such a slam-dunk that Cleveland couldn't afford to pass it up.

The Cubs were going to be hard pressed to match the package Seattle offered for Erik Bedard in the off-season, but the LaPorta-Sabathia deal looks to lower prices. Sure, Bedard was coming to Seattle for two years if it all worked out well and Sabathia is a half-year rental, but Sabathia was also the cream of the pitching crop and no other pitcher comes without questions. We can pay this price.

Will Carroll says the Cubs will react quickly and think they match up well for Burnett.

Bruce Miles thinks the Cubs are lukewarm on Burnett, that Harden is more likely.

Peter Gammons thought the Cubs liked Randy Wolf.

So, where do we go from here? Where do you think we should go?

Poll

With C.C. off the market, the player I want now, given the price he will cost, is:

Hitters Recap June 29 - July 5

DGU — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 22:19:17 -0000

Henry Blanco and Mike Fontenot led the team in OPS, both over 1.000, although neither were elected All-Stars. Derrek Lee had a fine week with WITH ZERO DPs. He was not named an All-Star. Aramis Ramirez's week's OPS dipped below his 2007 AVG. Kosuke Fukudome's OPS was below his career Japanese League SLG. Alfonso Soriano did not play - yet all three of the latter were named All-Stars.

K. Fukudome 32 PA, .167/.219/.267, 2 R, 2 RBI, 24 Outs

M. DeRosa 29 PA, .286/.310/.750, 6 R, 9 RBI, 20 Outs (DP)

R. Theriot 30 PA, .200/.333/.200, 2 R, 1 RBI, 20 Outs

J. Edmonds 30 PA, .208/.367/.333, 4 R, 2 RBI, 20 Outs (DP)

A. Ramirez 17 PA, .059/.059/.235, 1 R, 2 RBI, 18 Outs (2 DPs)

D. Lee 32 PA, .357/.438/.536, 4 R, 1 RBI, 18 Outs

G. Soto 30 PA, .400/.500/.640, 5 R, 4 RBI, 15 Outs

D. Ward, 7 PA, .143/.143/.286, 0 R, 0 RBI, 7 Outs (DP)

R. Johnson 8 PA, .143/.125/.286, 1 R, 0 RBI, 7 Outs

R. Cedeno 10 PA, .222/.300/.222, 0 R, 1 RBI, 7 Outs (DP)

M. Murton 11 PA, .400/.455/.600, 0 R, 2 RBI, 7 Outs (DP)

M. Fontenot 12 PA, .250/.500/.625, 1 R, 1 RBI, 6 Outs

E. Patterson 2 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0 R, 0 RBI, 2 Outs

H. Blanco 3 PA, .500/.667.500, 0 R, 0 RBI, 1 Out

Eric Patterson is gone. His presence sure fired up Mike Fontenot. Patterson had a good two weeks with the club, hitting .292/.400/.458 with a HR and 5 RBI in 8 games. During the same stretch, Mike Fontenot hit .333/.385/.792 with 3 solo HRs in 8 games. Prior to that stretch, Fontenot had hit .237/.333/.381 with 2 HR in 55 games. If Fontenot cools off again, the answer may be to call up Patterson.

Previously, I pointed out that Hideki Matsui had gone through a hot streak and then cold streak in his first year in the majors. How have their careers continued to compare as we pass the season's midway point? Well, as of Game 83 in his ML career, Fukudome stands at .285/.391/.420 with 7 HRs. Matsui at Game 83 in his ML career had a line of .302/.365/.459 with 9 HRs.

Some 2008 numbers: Reed Johnson v. RHP .233/.283/.336. Reed Johnson batting first .219/.293/.356 against any pitcher. Reed Johnson leading off an inning .183/.234/.267 against any pitcher. Let me throw something out there for debate. If the rules of baseball were changed and opposing managers could take anyone from the other team's 25-man roster and use them to set the opposing lineup, Tony LaRussa wouldn't have thought twice about forcing the Cubs to start Reed Johnson as the leadoff hitter in 2 out of 3 games against RH starters. Let's take this a step farther. Would anyone debate that starting Reed Johnson as a leadoff hitter v. RHP is so obviously A Very Bad Thing that Dusty Baker would have known not to do it?

Matt Murton is hitting .368/.400/.421 against RHP this year. Reed Johnson, let me look this up, is "hitting" .223/.283/.336 against RHP this year.

Poll

The Cubs Hitting MVP this week is

How to Be the Best Team in Baseball: Cubs v. Rays

DGU — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 13:12:32 -0000

There have been a lot of articles recently about how the Rays have unexpectedly become the best team in baseball, measured by won-loss records. As I was reading two yesterday, what really struck me was how different the Rays' way and the Cubs' are.

First, a summary of what the Rays have done - the Rays biggest move of the winter was the trade of Delmon Young and Brendan Harris for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. The trade added a pitcher with frontline potential and put the capstone on the shift the Rays had been working on even in 2007, the shift from being one of the worst defensive teams in baseball to being one of the best. That defensive improvement lets starters get deeper into games and decreases the workload on the bullpen. The 'pen is the other major place the Rays upgraded. They brought in Troy Percival (FA) and Dan Wheeler (trading Wigginton) to cover the last two innings; amazing to say that bringing in those two, coupled with the rest of their 'pen being a year older has fairly well cut their bullpen ERA in half. The last thing the the Rays have done over the past year is trust the talent their farm system has developed. On May 11, Evan Longoria's AVG sat at .211. Last year at the All-Star Break, Dioner Navarro (hitting .312/.366/.433 on the year) had an OPS below .500. Trusting rookie talent and showing that trust even when the players look horrid has paid huge dividends for the Rays.

The Cubs contrast with this plan at nearly every point. While the Rays opened a hole in RF to increase their overall defense, the Cubs biggest off-season goal was to add Kosuke Fukudome, increasing OF defense and providing a role model of the patient hitting approach which has become the team hallmark. Whereas the Rays have gone from worst to best in defense, the Cubs have made the same kind of shift from least patient team to most patient team. Both shifts were team-wide, but capped by moves involving star RFs.

The Rays traded their version of Ryan Theriot - Brendan Harris - an out-of-position SS whose surprising hitting earned him extended playing time. They also took Akinori Iwamura, a player who could have the positional versatility of Mark DeRosa, and set him down in only one position, 2B. As DeRosa has ranged all over the field playing 35 games at 4 positions other than 2B and Theriot has ranged hardly at all, missing grounder after grounder, the Cubs middle IF has struggled defensively even as they have shined offensively. In the middle IF, the Cubs and Rays have gone in the opposite directions, as both Iwamura and Bartlett have disappointed offensively.

The Rays saw a link between their defensive improvement and their starters going deeper in the game. While the Cubs have had two pitchers, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano, take steps forward in their game, every other starter from last year has regressed. Jason Marquis' WHIP is up .10 points. Ted Lilly's WHIP is up .16 points. The improvements of Z and Demp look to be attributable to their conditioning and pitching approach. Are the other pitchers suffering from the defense failing to make outs?

Just as the defense helping the starters trickles down for the Rays in a positive as their 'pen is used less, the Cubs 'pen has been used much more, particularly Carlos Marmol who appears to be wearing down. While the Rays added arms to the back of their 'pen, the Cubs added several arms to the fringe of their 'pen, from Ascanio and Lahey to Fox and Takatsu.

While the Rays have suffered through the growing pains of their rookies, the Cubs have instead sought cheap veteran help, getting great bargains out of Jim Edmonds and Reed Johnson, just as they did last year with Jason Kendall.

In many ways the Rays and Cubs have gone in opposite directions, except in the most important way, both teams have gone the same way, racing towards the best record in baseball.

Poll

Whose way is better, the Rays or the Cubs?

Hitters Recap June 22-28

DGU — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 22:40:10 -0000

Derrek Lee hit 5 for 5 on Saturday, but he also hit into 5 double plays throughout the rest of the week; Jim Edmonds had 3 HRs, while Eric Patterson and Mike Fontenot battled for the 25th man spot, each hitting a HR. Daryle Ward came back strong, leading the OBP charge this week as 7 Cubs had OBPs over .400.

D. Lee 26 PA, .375/.423/.500, 4 R, 5 RBI, 20 Outs (5 DPs!)

A. Ramirez 25 PA, .261/.320/.435, 3 R, 4 RBI, 17 Outs

E. Patterson 23 PA, .235/.391/.412, 3 R, 4 RBI, 14 Outs (CS)

J. Edmonds 25 PA, .222/.440/.722, 5 R, 6 RBI, 14 Outs

M. DeRosa 22 PA, .278/.409/.278, 3 R, 2 RBI, 13 Outs (DP)

G. Soto 23 PA, .316/.435/.474, 1 R, 4 RBI, 13 Outs

M. Fontenot 16 PA, .313/.313/.625, 3 R, 1 RBI, 11 Outs

K. Fukudome 20 PA, .267/.450/.467, 6 R, 1 RBI, 11 Outs

R. Theriot 18 PA, .471/.500/.529, 2 R, 0 RBI, 10 Outs (DP)

R. Cedeno 12 PA, .273/.333/.364, 1 R, 0 RBI, 8 Outs

D. Ward 13 PA, .500/.538/.500, 0 R, 2 RBI, 6 Outs

M. Murton 5 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0 R, 0 RBI, 5 Outs

H. Blanco 3 PA, .333/.333/.333, 0 R, 1 RBI, 2 Outs

At the beginning of the week, there was some question as to what Lou will do when Reed Johnson and Alfonso Soriano come back. Might Eric Patteson displace Mike Fontenot for that last roster spot? The week was not good to the younger Patterson, even as he got on base at a .400 clip. The White Sox put an end to the Patterson in LF experiment, ending Eric's case (at least with the Cubs) that he can play more positions than Fontenot. Patterson also got caught stealing in his only attempt, so it would seem to be down to their hitting. This week, Patterson got on base more but Fontenot hit for a higher average. On the season, their AVG/OBP are nearly identical, but Fontenot's SLG dwarfs Patterson's sitting at a cool .443 (.476 v. RHP - why in the world Lou didn't pinch hit for Fontenot v. a LHP is beyond me. This season, he's 1/10 against them; for his career, his OPS is .558.) So, Patterson will have to hit for some more power here soon or hope that Lou likes his speed.

What is there to say about Derrek Lee's double plays other than "Enough already"?

Ryan Theriot bust out of his slump this week hitting his second XBH in June. Ronny Cedeno also had his first XBH since the last one he hit on May 23.

Last week, Aramis Ramirez beat out Jim Edmonds for MVP honors, with 71% of the vote to Edmonds' 18%. Edmonds has been first or second now for three straight weeks in the voting. He is the clear MVP for June, hitting .328/.429/.719 on the month. Can anyone guess who (among the players on the current 25-man roster) is tied with Aramis Ramirez for the second highest OPS in June?

What's happened to Ronny Cedeno?

DGU — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 04:18:10 -0000

On May 6, he was hitting .373/.458/.549. Since then, he has hit .190/.242/.207. Ronny’s approach has also obviously changed. Where before, he worked the count and took bad pitches, he’s gone back to swinging at pitches he could never hope to hit. Clearly, this isn’t just a hitter going from good luck to bad luck. This is a hitter going from a good approach to a bad approach. Why?

Well, Ronny’s best stretch was from April 19 – 27 where he got to start every game but one. In regular playing time, he hit .394/.429/.606. During that stretch, he hit his only HR this year, a Grand Slam against the Mets on April 22.

via www.newsday.com

Then, he didn’t start again until May 6. Since May 7, Ronny has only started consecutive games twice: May 15-16 & June 17-18.

Lou claims that if you hit, you’ll play, although for Cedeno this has not been the case. Ronny was one of the Cubs’ hottest bats in the first month and was passed over for playing time not just by Theriot (for whom there is a clear case to play), but also by Mike Fontenot (whose only case was in his left-handedness). Despite doing well playing 2B during Soriano's first absense, Cedeno has now been passed over by Eric Patterson and Matt Murton. When Patterson had a big game, Lou responded saying Eric had earned himself some more starts. Lou often rewards HRs with playing time. For example, on May 3, Mike Fontenot hit his second HR. He got to start the next two games.

Ronny tried the patient approach and found it did not earn him playing time. (From May 10-27, he got to play in 4 complete games, reaching base 8/19 PAs in the CGs, but not hitting for hardly any power.) It seems to me that he is desperate to hit another HR, perhaps thinking that is what gets Lou’s attention. Cedeno is swinging hard at everything because that is what he thinks he needs to do to win successive playing days.

Anyway, that’s my theory. Anyone have a better perspective?

Poll

What's happened to Ronny Cedeno?

Cubs Hitters Recap June 15-21

DGU — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 04:05:57 -0000

With Alfonso Soriano out and Reed Johnson and Jim Edmonds also suffering injuries, several different players got opportunities, and excepting Ronny Cedeno each made his case. It was a bad week for Mark DeRosa and Geovany Soto, but four Cubs had an OPS at or above 1.000. The Ryan Theriot slide continues, leading to some questions about where his true hitting ability resides.

G. Soto 23 PA, .174/.174/.348, 1 R, 1 RBI, 21 Outs (2 DP)

A. Ramirez 26 PA, .231/.231/.692, 4 R, 8 RBI, 20 Outs

M. DeRosa 21 PA, .111/.238/.111, 2 R, 1 RBI, 17 Outs (DP)

R. Theriot 24 PA, .273/.333/.273, 2 R, 4 RBI, 17 Outs (DP)

K. Fukudome 25 PA, .348/.400/.478, 4 R, 4 RBI, 15 Outs (CS)

D. Lee 26 PA, .364/.462/.500, 4 R, 5 RBI, 15 Outs (DP)

R. Cedeno 9 PA, .125/.222/.125, 0 R, 0 RBI, 7 Outs

M. Hoffpauir 13 PA, .462/.462/.692, 4 R, 0 RBI, 7 Outs

H. Blanco 8 PA, .250/.250/.250, 1 R, 0 RBI, 6 Outs

R. Johnson 10 PA, .400/.400/.600, 2 R, 0 RBI, 6 Outs (CS)

J. Edmonds 12 PA, .400/.500/1.100, 2 R, 3 RBI, 6 Outs

M. Fontenot 7 PA, .286/.286/.857, 2 R, 2 RBI, 5 Outs

M. Murton 8 PA, .375/.375/.375, 0 R, 0 RBI, 5 Outs

E. Patterson 5 PA, .600/.600/.800, 2 R, 1 RBI, 2 Outs

Over the past ten games, Ryan Theriot is hitting .220/.273/.244. From May 20 to June 21, he's at .269/.347/.287. Now, all good players go through slumps, but bad hitters have also been known to have hot streaks. Is Theriot a good hitter on a cold streak or returning to his career norm?

In the battle for LF playing time, Eric Patterson appears to be ahead of Murton and Hoffpauir, though each hit well this week. Whoever wins, the Cubs lineup will be significantly changed as Kosuke Fukudome moved to leadoff. The leadoff spot just gained about .075 points of OBP. The fact that Lou was comfortable making this move speaks to the trust Jim Edmonds has won. Edmonds beat out Mark DeRosa 34% to 24% last week for Hitting MVP. Will his injury keep it from being three weeks in a row or will his one-inning-two-HRs show help him win it again despite having only 12 PA?

Who is our most valuable trade chip (or Can We Get C.C. Sabathia)?

DGU — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 03:15:32 -0000

There is a common argument I keep hearing - the Cubs' farm system is too poorly stocked to make a major trade, and we cannot outbid teams like the Yankees or Red Sox. This argument ignores the recent trade of Johan Santana, not to the Yankees, not to the Red Sox, but to the Mets, whose farm system was more poorly stocked at that time than ours. The factors that led the Twins to that trade have been debated before, but no one really knows. If some GM really likes Rich Hill, he might be a trade chip with more value than any of us could expect. At the same time, another GM might not be willing to give up anything for all ten of our top ten prospects.

First a word about the Red Sox and Yankees - I don't think they are going to be as big a threat as we expect. The Sox have pitching and were mostly in on Santana, it seemed, just to keep him from going to the Yankees cheaply. The Yankees just lost Chien-Ming Wang and I hope we can convince them to trade us something useful for Jason Marquis. On the other hand, they are more likely to be competition for pitchers we want to trade for. That said, Ian Kennedy has lost value and Phil Hughes is said to be untouchable. Robinson Cano may be a good match for Cleveland, but are the Yankees really willing to trade him?

That last question holds within it the three major issues for the trade market - 1) how well do we match the team looking to buy? 2) are the other teams willing to trade their most valuable pieces? and 3) are our trade chips valuable? It's that last question I want to focus on here. Rather than make an overly long initial post, I'm going to post below each potential trade chip I see with a brief word on the value I think they have. I'm very curious to see how the rest of the BCB community sees these players.

Poll

SB Nation User Blog: DGU

Hitters Recap July 6-12

MVP for this week:

Don't boo Marmol - this is all on Lou's head.

What's happened to Carlos Marmol?

Croweaters Anonymous

The Price for Pitching Is Set and It Is a Price We Can Most Certainly Pay

With C.C. off the market, the player I want now, given the price he will cost, is:

Hitters Recap June 29 - July 5

The Cubs Hitting MVP this week is

How to Be the Best Team in Baseball: Cubs v. Rays

Whose way is better, the Rays or the Cubs?

Hitters Recap June 22-28

Hitting MVP for June 22-28?

What's happened to Ronny Cedeno?

What's happened to Ronny Cedeno?

Cubs Hitters Recap June 15-21

Hitting MVP for June 15-21?

Who is our most valuable trade chip (or Can We Get C.C. Sabathia)?

Which Cub is our most valuable trade piece?