SB Nation User Blog: DGU

What to do with the bench

DGU — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 17:38:19 -0000

When Aramis Ramirez and Reed Johnson come back Monday, the Cubs will have some roster decisions to make. One of the easiest ways to open an extra bench spot, would be to go to 11 pitchers, using Heilman and Marshall for two innings each time they go out. But it would be a huge surprise to see Lou do that. That means, we've got 4 bench spots (minus the backup C) and several guys vying for that spot. Here's a rundown on what I see each being valuable for and what the Cubs might do.

Our defense v. RHP is likely to be Ramirez-Theriot-2B-Lee, with Soto behind the plate, and Soriano-Dome-Bradley. That 2B spot is an open question, more to follow. Reed Johnson is the only certain change in the defense v. LHP, taking Dome's spot. So, RJ grabs one of the four bench spots.

Reed Johnson

Defensive value: Can play all three OF spots

Offensive value: Mashes LHP; below average v. RHP.

Sam Fuld

Defensive value: Can play all three OF spots

Offensive value: Can get on base and has a little speed

Jeff Baker

Defensive value: Can play 3B, 2B, and corner OF competently

Offensive value: Mashes LHP; has potential v. RHP, including some power

Andres Blanco

Defensive value: Best middle IF on club

Offensive value: None; v. RHP he is hitting .218/.283/.255

Mike Fontenot

Defensive value: Good 2B; competent 3B

Offensive value: Up for debate; was one of the best hitting 2B last year

Micah Hoffpauir

Defensive value: Competent 1B; below average corner OF

Offensive value: Up for debate; has shown power, but his K rate is accelerating

Jake Fox

Defensive value: Up for debate; previously considered to be none

Offensive value: Looks to be solid

We have four spots to fill after RJ from the pool of Fuld, Baker, Blanco, Fontenot, Hofffpauir, and Fox. The first thing to decide is who should start at 2B v. RHP. I'd play both Fontenot and Baker over Blanco, at least for now. So, Fontenot takes my starting 2B v. RHP role. That leaves three bench spots and five players.

Fuld seems to be the easiest to discard; despite his good showing, he doesn't offer enough different from RJ. I think if you want to argue for Fuld, you have to argue against RJ, and really, that's just not realistic. Three spots - four players.

Blanco offers the SS backup, so that Riot can rest. I'd keep him.

I like Jeff Baker and think he's the first choice for a platoon partner with Fontenot, so I keep him, too.

That leaves Jake Fox and Micah Hoffpauir. Fox is hitting; Micah isn't. Fox is right handed, though, and initially, you'd think no one on this bench is really proven against right-handed pitching. Look at Fox's splits, though. He's actually killing RHP and not doing that hot v. LHP. So, I'd keep Fox and say "Happy trails" to Swing 'n Miss Micah.

The Lament of "The Next Felix Pie"

DGU — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 16:23:25 -0000

Reading responses to the Cubs' recent draft choice, I was struck by the prospect pessimism so many had. Just because a player is left-handed and plays CF doesn't mean he's the "next Pie or Colvin." Every player is different.

Indeed, if we wanted to be pessimistic, we should be pessimistic about all CF prospects in general, because the major leagues as a whole haven't been too kind recently to top CF prospects.

Over the past two years, there have been a ton of top CF prospects getting their chances to break into the major leagues. Working off of Baseball America's 2007 top prospect list (with references to where they landed in 2008 and 2009's lists when eligible), we've seen:

#6 Cameron Maybin, 2008's #6, 2009's #8

#13 Andrew McCutchen, 2008's #14, 2009's #33

#18 Carlos Gonzalez, 2008's #22

#28 Adam Jones

#29 Colby Rasmus, 2008's #5, 2009's #3

#33 Jacoby Ellsbury, 2008's #13

#48 Dexter Fowler, 2008's #74, 2009's #15

#49 Felix Pie

#55 Ryan Sweeney

#60 Carlos Gomez, 2008's #52

and 2008's #25 Jordan Schafer, 2009s #42

It is astounding how few of these guys have established themselves.

Let's look at where they each have gone.

Cameron Maybin had a miserable first callup at age 20 in Detroit. In 53 PAs, he had 21 Ks and batted just .143/.208/.265. He was traded to FL and had a marvelous September in 2008. Unfortunately, in 2009, at age 22, he was given the starting CF job, but could barely keep his AVG over the Mendoza line and was sent down after 95 PAs. His career OPS+ is 73 after 184 PAs.

Carlos Gonzalez had a rough 2008 with the Oakland A's, coming up at the end of May at age 22. In 316 PAs he hit .242/.273/.361 with 81 Ks. He was traded to COL and has just recently been called up, but has not been hitting well so far. His career OPS+ is 71 after 334 PAs.

Colby Rasmus has been given much playing time for the 2009 Cardinals despite a full OF. At age 22, he had a decent start to the season, but then went cold in May, hitting .212/.256/.447. Tony LaRussa never lost faith, however, and continued to bat Rasmus in key spots in the order. He's started to heat up in June, hitting .462/.462/.808. His career OPS+ is 103 in 189 PAs.

Adam Jones got an early callup at age 20 in Seattle. He struggled in 76 PAs. At age 21, he got another limited chance in 71 PAs and did alright. He was then traded to Baltimore and had a chance to play as a full-time player. At age 22, it was a rough season. The first month, he posted a middling .700 OPS, then struggled in May, hitting .226/.273/.312. The O's didn't give up, however and got to see two strong months from June and just into August, before injuries derailed his season. Of course, this year, most of you know he has exploded, hitting .340/.390/.584. His career OPS+ is 98 in 889 PAs.

Jacoby Ellsbury, at age 23, had a strong late-season callup in 2007. He was given a lot of playing time, then, in 2008, but failed to duplicate his rookie season success. In particular, he went into a deep slump in the summer months of June and July. Boston didn't give up, though, and kept playing him. They were rewarded with a August and September bounce-back. In 2009, Ellsbury has struggled with left-handers. With a career OPS+ of 92 in 988 PAs, Boston fans have to begin to wonder if Ellsbury is much more than a cheaper version of Juan Pierre.

Dexter Fowler has won increasing playing time for himself after just making the team in 2009. At age 23, he started the season strong, but really fell off in May. Colorado stuck with him and is seeing him turn it on in June. His career OPS+ is 83 in 242 PAs.

Felix Pie is known well by Cub fans as a disappointment. The only thing I'd note about his Cubs career (287 PAs total) is that he never had consistent playing time. Finally given that playing time in Baltimore, he struggled immensely, hitting .157/.246/216 over the first month. However, he stepped it up in the second month, hitting .250/.308/.444. His story is not over, although at age 24, he holds a disappointing career OPS+ of 56 in 388 PAs.

Ryan Sweeney was called up for brief stints on the Southside in 2006 and 2007. It wasn't until he was traded to Oakland, however, that he got regular playing time. At age 23, in 433 PAs, he put up a useful line of .286/.350/.383. In 2009, however, he has fallen back such that his career OPS+ stands at 85 after 732 PAs.

Carlos Gomez saw some time at the show in 2007 with the Mets, but did not look ready. The Mets traded him to Minnesota, who gave Gomez an extended shot in 2008, his age 22 season. Gomez responded with a miserable season, that went from bad to worse in the second half. Given more playing time in 2009, he still hasn't gotten his OBP over .300. After 888 PAs, his career OPS+ stands at 73.

Jordan Schafer had a terrific first week in the MLB in 2009. At age 22, he hit the ball all over the place. Since then, he's hit .181/.296/.222 and the Braves sent him down at the end of May. In 195 PAs, he has a career OPS+ of 60.

Andrew McCutchen has just gotten started. So far, so good for him, but 30 PAs doesn't tell us much. We could add the stories of earlier prospects Chris Young (AZ) and Lastings Milledge to stress how difficult it has been for CF prospects, especially of the "toolsy" variety. Adam Jones is the only one with extended, remarkable success. Rasmus and Fowler are looking hopeful, but have had their struggles. Sweeney and Ellsbury have been useful if not spectacular, and also with their own struggles.

One thing that stands out to me, given the similar struggles of these players. Gonzalez was a major piece in the Holliday trade; Gomez in the Johan trade; Maybin in the Miguel Cabrera trade; Jones was in the Bedard trade. Sweeney brought back the then much more respected (not to mention also young and cheap) Nick Swisher. Only Felix Pie was traded for nothing of great value.

What Hendry did right, what he did wrong, and what might be done to fix things

DGU — Mon, 25 May 2009 12:01:35 -0000

I'd like to re-consider Jim Hendry's offseason, which now is under attack. I'll add the qualifiers up front - I'm sure it's a lot harder to be a real GM then to armchair it. I think Hendry has been a very good GM for the Cubs overall. No, I don't think I know more than him.

This is a long fan post, which I'll be the first to say is not a good thing. To help in reading it, I've bolded my main points and used the indent feature to separate the review from the proposed action sections.

The following decisions were made and up for review.

1. Signing Milton Bradley to a 2 year contract with a vesting option for games played.

2. Trading Mark DeRosa to give Mike Fontenot and Aaron Miles the 2B job.

3. Trading Jason Marquis to give Sean Marshall the 5th starter job.

4. Replacing Wood, Howry, and Wuertz with Gregg, Heilman, and Patton.

5. Sticking with Fukudome.

6. Giving Hoffpauir the 1st man off the bench role; replacing Blanco with Hill; providing no backup left-side of the IF role players either for the bench or AAA team.

7. Underselling Pie, Cedeno, and Ceda to help make 1-4 happen.

Reviewing these decisions so far.

1. Milton Bradley has been a disappointment in terms of batting results. His approach has not looked bad. His fielding has been ok. It's possible his luck has just been bad. Here is my concern. The contract Jim gave Milton seemed smart, protecting the Cubs on that third year in case Milton was injured too much. But I'm beginning to fear that the very clause which protects us in 2011 is hurting us in 2009. Milton Bradley has a 12 M dollar incentive to play hurt. I don't think signing Bradley was the mistake. I think the incentive clause is starting to look like a mistake.

2. Against LHP, Aaron Miles has a .908 SLG; Fontenot has a .743 OPS v. RHP; That betters DeRosa's .697/.973 R/L split. Jim Hendry was right that Fontenot/Miles could replace DeRosa at 2B. The problem is twofold - 1) Lou has played Miles against RHP way too often and 2) Fontenot/Miles haven't just been used at 2B. More on that later. First, let's talk about this decision to go with Fontenot. He hit .305/.395/.514 last year. How do you not give him a shot, at least in a platoon role? And DeRosa wasn't going to sit for a platoon role after his career year. The only move that was fair to both Mark DeRosa and Mike Fontenot was to trade DeRosa. The problem was not in trading DeRosa; it was failing to cover his position flexibility with the rest of the bench.

3. Jason Marquis has pitched well this year. Good for him. Sean Marshall has pitched better. Good for us. Well done, Jim Hendry.

4. The bullpen looks bad. I don't need to go into detail. The problem is that if you step back and look at all of baseball's lower-priced off-season relief moves, none really look that good. When it comes to the bullpen, I throw my hands up wondering what could Hendry have done differently? He appears to have been right to save money on Kerry Wood.

5. Fukudome has been this team's saving grace so far. If Fukudome falls back again, he'll be a real enigma. His SLG has fallen back in May, but this could just be the normal ebb and flow of baseball. We'll see.

6. Hoffpauir and Hill look to be worthwhile risks paying off. Over the last 7 days, Hoffpauir is 2/14 with 7 Ks. Hopefully that also is just the normal ebb and flow hitters go through, because otherwise he's been a real asset with the bat. It's the rest of the bench that is the disaster. No backup was provided for 3B or SS. Perhaps Jim expected Corey Koskie to play. Even then, there was way too much "hope and faith" in Ramirez and Theriot - two players known to be at risk in regards to their durability. This isn't just a problem that was exposed by bad luck. It was going to be a problem season-long if Lou did not feel he had the options necessary to rest Theriot and Ramirez.

7. I'm on record saying we undersold those guys. Pie and Cedeno started the season very poorly - their first in the AL - but both have rebounded lately. Over the last 14 days, Ronny's hitting .263/.300/.526 and Felix is hitting .242/.306/.455 in May. Of course, that, too could be the normal ebb and flow of baseball, and regardles the OBPs look bad. Again, to be clear, it's not that I think we need those guys on the team; I think we could have gotten more in trade had we handled things differently.

Overall, my quibbles with Hendry are on smaller things. It's just that these smaller things have added up this season and been magnified with Bradley, the big off-season acquisition, not hitting. There were good moves in here, too. In particular, I think at the end of the season, we are going to be glad with Mike Fontenot as a platooned 2B.

Alright - where can we go from here?

My view is that something needs to be done to give this team a shot in the arm and to help re-sort the bullpen and bench. Pre-season, I'd have liked to see a guy like Maicer Izturis, Brandon Wood, or Wilson Betemit added to the roster. But a move like that wouldn't help this team with the idea that management still believes and is expecting a turnaround.

I have my eye on Aubrey Huff. He's hitting just ok, so far this season. Andy McPhail is intending to trade him and now has the concern - what if Huff's 2009 follows 2007 and not 2008? Did McPhail wait too long to trade Huff? Hendry can offer to buy now, paying full price, saving McPhail some of that risk. Huff played for Lou in Tampa and has played in the NL Central before, too. He can play 3B now and gives us Bradley insurance in RF later. The demand for Huff should be lower than for DeRosa, whose 2B skill and versatility make him more attractive to more clubs. That means the price could easily be lower, too. I also think the Cubs need Bradley insurance more than they need Fontenot insurance.

The other real benefit to trading with Baltimore is that, especially in contrast to Cleveland, they should be shopping for young 1B/DH players, which is what we have to trade. In 2006, the Rays sent Huff and cash to the Astros for Mitch Talbot and Ben Zobrist. I think we can match that offer with an increase to pay respect to Huff's 2008 and to get this done earlier.

But I'd actually like to expand this trade to get George Sherrill, too. He would solidify our bullpen as a strong LH late-inning guy. Sherrill and Huff are getting paid 10.75 M dollars together. So we would probably need some $$$ help from Baltimore to do this. If the return was good enough, the O's have money to spare.

So, package Micah Hoffpauir, Jake Fox, Randy Wells, and Neal Cotts. Hoffpauir and Fox go straight into Baltimore's lineup. Wells goes into their tattered rotation. Cotts helps cover innings. Is that enough to get Baltimore to pay part of the salaries due to Huff and Sherrill? There's no real marquee name there, but it's a lot of cheap talent with upside. I imagine that some Cub fans will think it's too much.

But we get a real hitter to cover 3B and a real LH bullpen pitcher. This would go a long way towards fixing the problems our roster faces. The pressure comes off Marmol-Gregg. Heilman moves to a multi-inning, mopup role. Huff jumps into the middle of the lineup, taking pressure off Bradley. We're still going to want a SS backup, but a smaller trade for a lesser-known player can look to fixing that later. Maybe Baltimore is even willing to throw in Robert Andino somehow.

Poll

Hoffpauir, Fox, Wells, and Cotts for Huff, Sherrill, and cash -

That's too much for the Cubs to give!

111 votes

That's not enough for the O's.

21 votes

Just right - get it done!

27 votes

The money just won't be there to make it work.

12 votes

Bah! Why bother with this team?

4 votes

I don't know; I want someone else....

17 votes

192 votes | Poll has closed

Looking for offensive answers around the league

DGU — Sat, 23 May 2009 13:37:01 -0000

On the season as a whole, Milton Bradley, Mike Fontenot, Geovany Soto, Derrek Lee are all hitting much worse than was projected for them pre-season. Soto and Lee are both hitting better in May, but it's hard to erase the memories of early season. Kosuke Fukudome and Ryan Theriot, however, had been much better than expected and, while Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano were hitting, it covered the holes in the Cub offense. But we lost Ramirez, Soriano went cold, and in May, Fukudome's SLG has rolled over. He's hitting .296/.441/.389 on the month. Meanwhile, Ryan Theriot's power spike came at the expense of his AVG and OBP. In May, he's hitting .229/.308/.543. They both look like hitters who would be better served hitting 2nd and 8th as they started the season, instead of players called to carry the offense.

The Cubs' disappointing 4, however, are not the only hitters who are frustrating fans this year. The D'backs are having a similar disappointing season from many of their hitters - Conor Jackson, Chad Tracy, Stephen Drew, and Chris Young all unable to get their OPS over .600. Their situation is worse than ours, even though Justin Upton overcame his cold start. So, for perspective's sake let's take a look around the league and ask what's going on with so many good hitters. The following are guys I expected to do much better this season than they have started.

Grady Sizemore .220/303/.405 .248 BABIP; K% up 5% from 08

Josh Hamilton .237/.288/.452 K% up 6%; LD% down 5%, GB/FB halved

Jimmy Rollins .240/.284/.351 K% up 4%; LD% down 6%; FB% up 10%

B.J. Upton .188/.291/.275 K% up 7%; FB up 7%

Lance Berkman .239/.380/.479 BABIP .242

Carlos Quentin .228/.329/.455 BABIP .202

David Ortiz .205/.310/.315 K% up 7.5%;

Geovany Soto .206/.322/.275 K% down 2%; BB% up 2.5% BABIP .256

Garrett Atkins .187/.276/.291 LD% down 9%; GB% up 12%

Stephen Drew .173/.247/.333 BABIP .196; K% up 5%; LD% down 7%

Dan Uggla .207/.326/.414 K% down 7%; BABIP .225

Howie Kendrick .241/.287/.383 BABIP .275 HR/FB% up 8%; LD% down 6.5%

Derrek Lee .240/.309/.388 LD% down 10%; FB% up at a career high level

Chris Young .178/.224/.326 K% up 4%; BB% down 4%; BABIP .231; FB% up 12%

Conor Jackson .182/.264/.253 K% up 5%; BABIP .207

Adrian Beltre .213/.246/.308 LD% down 7%

Kelly Johnson .230/.309/.361 K% down 5% LD% down 5% BABIP .250

Milton Bradley .182/.314/.341 BABIP .194 LD% down 11%; FB% down 8%

Adam LaRoche .227/.316/.461 BABIP .262 LD% down 6.5%; FB% up 8%

Mike Fontenot .193/.290/.361 BABIP .205 LD% down 12% GB% up 9%

There are a couple things that keep coming up - a low BABIP, often times connected to a LD% that is way down. Besides bunts, line drives are the least likely occurrence when a hitter makes contact. Roughly twice as often as a line drive, comes a fly ball and ground balls even more often than that. Last year, NL batters had AVGs of .231 on ground balls, .227 on fly balls, and .726 on line drives. So, seeing a LD% down, when a hitters overall line is down is no surprise. When that BABIP is down but the LD% isn't, there's a good chance the hitter has just been unlucky.

Grady Sizemore, for example, isn't hitting that much differently, in terms of LDs, GBs, and FBs, than he has in year's past. His strikeout rate is up, and that's a concern, but overall, it just looks like he might be getting unlucky. The same seems true for Lance Berkman, Carlos Quentin, Dan Uggla, and Conor Jackson.

Garrett Atkins, Howie Kendrick, Adrian Beltre, Kelly Johnson, and Adam LaRoche are all guys whose hitting woes seem directly connected to low LD%s. Some even have positive signs, like Howie Kendrick's HR/FB rate tripling, and Kelly Johnson cutting down on strikeouts quite a bit. These players might hope that it's still early enough in the season that they just haven't started squaring the ball up totally, and a hot streak will counter balance their season stats so far.

Then there are some guys who are showing several different changes in their percentages. Jimmy Rollins, Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, David Ortiz, and Stephen Drew are all striking out more than they did last year. These are guys I really wonder about what's going on - and it may easily be different things for different guys.

Coming back to our Cubs, now, we can ask how they compare to these other struggling players.

Geo is actually striking out less and walking more - a good sign. His LD, GB, and FB rates are all close to 2008. What's cratered has been his HR/FB rate - not a good sign at all. I'd like to see some HRs from Geo soon.

Bradley's hitting a whole lot less fly balls and line drives - and that will take away all your SLG and AVG. His BABIP is very low, matching what I remember seeing - a lot of balls hit straight to defenders.

Derrek Lee's line is very interesting. Again, he is not the same hitter he was in the second half of 2008 at all. People who argue he's on a straight line decline are just ignoring the facts. In fact, Derrek's FB% is higher than it ever has been in his career. Last year that FB% had dipped. It has me wondering if Derrek's trying too hard to keep the ball off the ground after his DPs last year and that's cutting into his LD%. That said, Lee's been very good in May and it just bears watching if his April was all attributable to neck woes.

Mike Fontenot has turned most of his line drives into ground balls. He's still hitting HRs at the same rate as last year, which is a good sign. I think people forget how cold Fontenot was to start last season. He may simply be a streaky player who's due for a hot spell.

I don't have all the answers here. The one thing I'm pretty sure about is that at the end of the season, most of the people on that list above will have had good seasons, while a few really will end the season with disappointing lines. It's possible the Cubs' 4 will be those few, but I doubt all of them will be.

I'll add a poll here later today. The question will be "Why is the Cubs' offense disappointing so much?" I'll take suggestions for which answers should be options.

Old Cub prospect hitting again

DGU — Sat, 09 May 2009 17:53:10 -0000

Old Cub prospect hitting again

Look who's finally learned to hit AA pitching...

For Your Eyes Only: Clutch Hitting & the Value of What We See

DGU — Tue, 05 May 2009 16:39:23 -0000

A fascinating mini-story showed up in John Perotto's May 3 "On the Beat" column at Baseball Prospectus (unfortunately, subscription required). Perotto asks if there is a scapegoat for the Mets' disappointing start to the season. Skipper Jerry Manuel believes the Mets are lacking in clutch hitting. He says

When we get in a position where we’re trailing late in games, it almost seems like it’s an insurmountable lead. Our anxiety takes over at that time.

Now, presumably, of all people, Jerry Manuel is watching the Mets closer than anyone. He should be watching their games live with his discriminating eye. He should be watching tape, reviewing games with focused precision.

And he should know what he's looking at. Jerry Manuel played over 1300 games of pro ball, including over a 100 games of major league baseball. He played in the post-season. [Quick trivia - without looking it up, does anyone remember who the Cubs traded to get Jerry Manuel?] He's managed 6 full seasons, with the 2000 AL manager of the year award to his credit. He's into his second season as manager of the Mets.

He should know what he's talking about when he makes observations about the Mets. But he's flat wrong about the Mets' clutch hitting. John Perotto looks up the stats:

According to baseball-reference.com, in high-leverage at-bats, Mets hitters have an OPS+ of 100, exactly average, while generating slash stats of .272/.373/.401.

So, I have two questions. First, if Jerry Manuel's eyes are lying to him about what's happening on the field, how much should we discount the value of what the common fan sees happening?

This is different than talking about professional scouting data on specific hitters and pitchers. I'm talking about the conclusions we draw on much broader topics.

The second question is the poll.

Poll

Do you believe in clutch hitting as an attribute some hitters possess and others do not?

Yes, and you can prove it statistically.

13 votes

Yes, and it is precisely the kind of thing that can't be proved statistically.

18 votes

Not generally, but I think it may be a rare gift.

16 votes

Not at all; it's been proven statistically to be a myth.

8 votes

Other (please elaborate below)

4 votes

59 votes | Poll has closed

Chris Carpenter should have been in the Cubs' Top Ten Prospects?

DGU — Tue, 05 May 2009 15:19:44 -0000

Chris Carpenter should have been in the Cubs' Top Ten Prospects?

Behind Baseball Prospectus subscriber wall, Kevin Goldstein updates on Carpenter:
"Coming out of Kent State in last year's draft, Carpenter had the power frame and power stuff to project as a first-round pick, but a checkered injury history that included a Tommy John surgery and a follow up a year later to clean out the joint concerned too many teams and dropped him to the third round. Still, he's been healthy for over two years now, and he's proving to be far too good for the Midwest League, now allowing only four hits over 17 scoreless innings in his last three starts. I didn't put him in my Cubs Top 11 Prospect list entering the year, and that was a mistake."

The Myth of Derrek Lee's Decline

DGU — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 00:37:31 -0000

All across this site, you can read posts confidently stating, as if it is a fact long-since proven, that Derrek Lee is in decline. Sometimes, even, the Hoffpuerilites say it with glee, eagerly anticipating a DLee benching; for them, a DLee 0-fer elicits a Pavlovian response of drooling and growling.

Perhaps you have noticed that these statements are often carelessly unfactual. For example, recently one poster complained that the Cubs didn't even want the 2005 DLee as much as they just wanted the same Lee who had played pre-2005. Of course, what the Cubs have gotten from 2006-2008 IS that Lee. Derrek Lee's OPS+ from 2000-2004 are 124, 112, 131, 131, and 117. From 2006-2008, they are 112, 131, 110. It is nearly the same kind of distribution despite the fact that we're looking at Lee's age 30-32 seasons.

Yet, people keep saying he's in decline. It's true that players hitting their mid-30s can start to decline. But Lee is in great shape physically. He's not overweight or out of condition. It is possible that he's declining, but projection systems from PECOTA to CHONE to Bill James don't expect it. They include massive databases of statistics and body types and all sorts of information we can't take in when we make comparisons. Yet, so many think they know better.

Well, doesn't Derrek Lee's horrendous 2009 start prove that he's in decline? Did Alfonso Soriano's horrendous start to 2008 indicate he was in decline last year? Hardly. But let's not just "small sample size" this away. Let's actually look at Lee's stats this year.

Last year, Lee's problem was typified by his rolling over the ball and hitting more GBs than usual. His GB% went up 3.5% from his 2003-04, 2006-07 levels and up over 6% from his 2005 levels. This year, that GB% is back to the 2005 level, so far. Lee also has an "unlucky" BABIP of .232. I put "unlucky" in quotes because Lee's LD% is also way down. His LD% has been fairly consistent, even last year. So, this bears watching. But what was ailing Lee last year is not the same thing that's going on this year.

And that's what this whole myth of Lee's "decline" is predicated on. It expects you to believe that since 2005, Lee's stats are a straight line down. They're not. His 2006-2008 stats are all in line with his 2000-2004 stats. Yes, his last four-five months of 2008 were rough, but what was troubling him then is not the same thing holding his 2009 stats back.

So, the next time someone throws out DLee's "obvious decline," remember that 1) the stats don't back that idea up, 2) the projection systems don't back that up, and 3) even this year's frustrating beginning doesn't back that up. It's a myth.

Poll

I believe Derrek Lee is in decline.

Yes; it's obvious.

209 votes

I think he is, but there's no proof.

68 votes

No, I think he's just been too banged up and will rebound eventually.

109 votes

We won't know for a while yet.

121 votes

507 votes | Poll has closed

Who's Gone First? (I don't know's on third.)

DGU — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 23:00:25 -0000

So, watching today's game, I thought, well, Lou's done with Gathright after the pickoff. Then, when he left Patton in to reap the Pujols, I thought, "Will we trade to keep Patton or just send him back?" I think Lou's tired of playing baseball with a roster that has several holes where he just doesn't trust those guys.

There was a lot of good conversation about the roster construction in the recap thread for yesterday's game and since those fall off the main page so quickly, I thought I'd at least add a link to that page, if not also adding something constructive (or maybe just a poll).

One thing that's in my mind is that you can fix the depth problem in the bench if we can find a way to make two swaps similar to the following: Dump the speedy/defensive OF in Gathright, replacing him with a speedy/defensive IF. My favorite option there has been and remains Maicer Izturis, who can play 3B, SS, and 2B very well. Ideally, he could be had in a deal where the main piece is Micah Hoffpauir, because I'd rather use his roster spot for a 4 corners guy, maybe Fernando Tatis could be had for the right price. (He's not LH, but he's got fairly even splits on his career.)

Better yet, would be to keep Micah and cut the 'pen by a reliever, you know that one that Lou only trots out once a week when the scores are separated by a touchdown. I think if anyone could be convinced to go to 11 pitchers, it would be Lou in the current situation we are in now if only he'd find a long, long reliever he likes.

Anyway, the good take away from this game was that Fontenot looked good enough to me at 3B in limited action. Maybe he really can hold that spot down and make some of the rest of the bench complications less complicated. What do you guys think - of Fontenot at 3B, of the bench, and of who's the next to go?

Poll

Which current Cub is next to go the way of the Viz?

Neal Cotts

77 votes

Joey Gathright

97 votes

David Patton

52 votes

Other

7 votes

233 votes | Poll has closed

Fukudome Lives!

DGU — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 17:41:12 -0000

Fukudome Lives!

Dave Cameron says we never should have gotten off the Fukudome bandwagon. What he says here seems relevant to the Derrek Lee discussions.

SB Nation User Blog: DGU

What to do with the bench

What moves would you make Monday?

The Lament of "The Next Felix Pie"

What Hendry did right, what he did wrong, and what might be done to fix things

Hoffpauir, Fox, Wells, and Cotts for Huff, Sherrill, and cash -

That's too much for the Cubs to give!

That's not enough for the O's.

Just right - get it done!

The money just won't be there to make it work.

Bah! Why bother with this team?

I don't know; I want someone else....

Looking for offensive answers around the league

Old Cub prospect hitting again

Old Cub prospect hitting again

For Your Eyes Only: Clutch Hitting & the Value of What We See

Do you believe in clutch hitting as an attribute some hitters possess and others do not?

Yes, and you can prove it statistically.

Yes, and it is precisely the kind of thing that can't be proved statistically.

Not generally, but I think it may be a rare gift.

Not at all; it's been proven statistically to be a myth.

Other (please elaborate below)

Chris Carpenter should have been in the Cubs' Top Ten Prospects?

Chris Carpenter should have been in the Cubs' Top Ten Prospects?

The Myth of Derrek Lee's Decline

I believe Derrek Lee is in decline.

Yes; it's obvious.

I think he is, but there's no proof.

No, I think he's just been too banged up and will rebound eventually.

We won't know for a while yet.

Who's Gone First? (I don't know's on third.)

Which current Cub is next to go the way of the Viz?

Neal Cotts

Joey Gathright

David Patton

Other

Fukudome Lives!

Fukudome Lives!