SB Nation User Blog: DGU

Non-Tender Thread: Cubs & Others

DGU — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 22:00:57 -0000

The Cubs are tendering contracts to Carlos Marmol, Ryan Theriot, Jeff Baker, Angel Guzman, Sean Marshall, Koyie Hill, Tom Gorzelanny, and Mike Fontenot. Neal Cotts is non-tendered, but will be offered a minor league contract. It's unknown if he'll accept.

So far, among the interesting non-tenders for the Cubs are Kelly Johnson, Chien-Ming Wang, and Scott Olsen. Ryan Church was removed earlier when Rafael Soriano accepted arbitration.

So far, one interesting question to ask - assuming the roster holds room for only one, would you rather have Mike Fontenot or Kelly Johnson. It's possible later tonight, we'll be asking the same question with regards to Koyie Hill and Dioner Navarro.

Oakland would apparently rather have Jake Fox than Jack Cust, but maybe now that Cust will be cheaper (than he was), would we rather have Cust?

When we know the full list, I'll include a poll.

Something Aaron Miles Was the Best At, or Baserunning 2009

DGU — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 12:02:10 -0000

I wanted to find some baserunning statistics and was coming up empty (maybe I just don't know where to look) until I discovered that Baseball Prospectus has a section of their statistics site up for baserunning. It should come as no surprise to people who've been to BP before that they use all sorts of odd sounding abbreviations like GA_OPPS, EqSBR, and EqOAR, but once you figure out what they all mean (through BP's stats glossary), it starts to take a clear shape. (At least I think it does. Hopefully some of the more statistically inclined here on BCB can come and confirm or correct what I'm trying to understand and explain here. Paging Shawn Goldman!)

The first thing to understand is the expected runs matrix BP works with. For example, in 2004, a team with no outs and a man on second averaged 1.1596 runs. A team with no outs and a man on third averaged 1.4535 runs, and a team with one out and the bases empty averaged .2866 runs. So if Kosuke Fukudome leads off with a double, but then decides to try and steal third, he's taking a big risk. If he succeeds, he could add a scant average of about .3 runs, but if he fails, he could take away a brutal average of about 1.2 runs.

So, if we added up all the extra expected runs a player's baserunning added and took away, we would have a way to value how many expected runs a player was worth on the bases. To do this, BP tracks opportunities for advancement, split into various categories. How many times did a player take the opportunity to advance from first to third on a hit? How many times did a player take the opportunity to tag up on a fly ball? Then, these tallied opportunities are compared to what the average ML runner did. Then adjustments are made for park effects, etc. What results is Equivelant Baserunning Runs or EqBRR.

Last year,the league leaders in EqBRR were Michael Bourn with 15.0, Chase Utley with 8.8, Rajai Davis with 8.0, Dexter Fowler with 7.3, and Chris Getz with 6.2. Melvin Mora, Jorge Posada, Carlos Lee, Billy Butler, and Yadier Molina were the five worst baserunners.

What about the Cubs? Well, on the whole, the Cubs were a very neutral baserunning team. [Edit: See the comments below. On the whole, the Cubs were a bad baserunning team, but what I originally intended still stands - that none of the individual Cubs were either very good or very bad.] No one added more than 1.5 runs and no one took away more than 3.4 runs. Milton Bradley and Kosuke Fukudome were the two worst baserunners this year. Surprising no one, I'd expect, Aramis Ramirez, Jake Fox, and Geovany Soto were the next three worst. What I think will be a surprise is that the next two worst baserunners were Alfonso Soriano and Ryan Theriot. And the best baserunner? Aaron Miles! Sam Fuld was just behind Miles - not a surprise - but tied with Fuld was Koyie Hill! #4 shouldn't surprise anyone - the professional Derrek Lee, but #5 is Big Z and #6 is Micah Hoffpauir!

Pardon all the exclamation points, but as I first dig into these, I am aghast. When pitchers and bench players (especially a backup 1B and C) lead the team in baserunning, we are seeing that on the whole, the Cubs running game is mostly ineffective or counter-productive. To be clear, it's not really bad - we shouldn't be wringing our hands here.

But this does say something about the perceived baserunning value of Ryan Theriot and Alfonso Soriano. 2009 was no exception. In 2008, Mark DeRosa led the team with 3.8 EqBRR, while Theriot and Soriano were both in negative figures again. (Kouske was #2 that year, and there's hope that he might bounce back in 2010, especially if he stops stealing bases.) In 2007, Pie, Izturis, and Marquis led the team, and while Theriot was positive that year, Soriano was negative again. It is interesting that the players on the Cubs who have been good baserunners in '07 and '08 have been in the manager's doghouse and pushed off the team, but I'd caution against making too much of that.

Later today or tomorrow I'll post some ideas below about 2010 roster construction with baserunning in mind. First, I'll be interested to read general reactions and confirmations or corrections on my understanding of BP's baserunning metrics.

Poll

Baserunning

Theriot, Castro, and the Future Middle Infield

DGU — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 05:08:15 -0000

Theriot, Castro, and the Future Middle Infield

Article tells us (among several other things):
1) Theriot has been told to prepare for a move to 2B.
2) Castro could break camp with the Cubs this year.
3) It's "believed" Castro is untouchable in trade negotiations.

Miguel Cabrera Available, which leads me to ask if Granderson really is available

DGU — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 22:33:16 -0000

Miguel Cabrera Available, which leads me to ask if Granderson really is available

If the Tigers trade Cabrera, they save 20 M. What need, then, to trade Granderson or Jackson?

Cubs 2010 2B and "the L word"

DGU — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 02:09:04 -0000

There has been some speculation that the Cubs would be fine with Jeff Baker at 2B. However, in the most recent Paul Sullivan piece, he writes:

One of the more popular free agents on the market, the Cardinals' DeRosa is drawing no interest from his former team, despite inquiries made to the Indians last May after Aramis Ramirez's shoulder injury. The Cubs still prefer a left-handed hitting second baseman, which is why they're interested in the switch-hitting Castillo.

Now, there's a statement to raise the ire of many different Cub partisans - those who love DeRo, those who don't want Castillo, those who want to see Jeff Baker get the job, and those who thought we were past the LH obsession.

Now it is possible that Sullivan is mis-reading things, that the Cubs are planning to split 2B evenly between Fontenot and Baker and that there's "interest" in Castillo only as a Bradley exit strategy. But I figure it's worth reconsidering what the 2B options are, with Bill James projections a guess at defensive value based on the past three years of UZR.

Mike Fontenot Age 30 .273/.343/.415 with very good defense

Jeff Baker Age 28 .280/.337/.460 with average defense

Luis Castillo Age 34 .282/.363/.331 with very poor defense

Orlando Hudson Age 32 .280/.357/.417 with mildly below average defense

Felipe Lopez Age 30 .281/.352/.400 with mildly above average defense

Adam Kennedy Age 34 .270/.332/.373 with a big question mark at defense (see past two years' UZRs)

Now, I know some of you won't be able to buy into this Fontenot projection - but why not, really? If you push him back to part-time play, why shouldn't he split the difference between his very good 2008 and very bad 2009?

And if you buy into these projections, it doesn't look like Lopez or Hudson offer enough over what we have in-house to pay them what would be significantly more money. If you had to pick one of the free agents, Felipe Lopez was very good last year, both offensively and defensively - if you buy him taking a step forward.

But with multiple middle infield options in the pipeline, you definitely don't want to do a multi-year deal - so, again, keeping Fontenot and Baker seems like the best option.

What are your thoughts? Any options on the trade market you'd consider that I haven't included here?

Poll

Cubs' 2010 2B?

Fontenot/Baker splitting time evenly

72 votes

Baker only

21 votes

Felipe Lopez

13 votes

Orlando Hudson

20 votes

Luis Castillo

5 votes

Someone else

15 votes

Fontenot/Baker in regular platoon

18 votes

Ryan Theriot

26 votes

190 votes | Poll has closed

On Harden and the Players Jim Hendry Lets Go

DGU — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 00:29:16 -0000

Without access to health records, Rich Harden looks like a great candidate to offer arbitration - at the very least, if not offer an incentive-based contract. Yes, he kills bullpens, but not if you pair him with Sean Marshall who also lacks endurance to be a starter. Yes, he can be maddening, breaking down, but when healthy, he is the best pitcher in baseball. I can understand thinking Harden isn't worth a long-term contract, but that Jim Hendry wouldn't even offer arbitration mystifies me.

That said, Jim Hendry has been pretty good at knowing when to cut bait. Consider

In 2004, Hendry traded Hee Seop Choi, who had just had a promising rookie season - Choi was out of baseball two seasons later.

In 2005, the biggest story was the trade of Sammy Sosa - who was miserably bad in Baltimore and not given a contract the year following. Hendry also let Mark Grudzielank go; Grudz was decent the following year, but his OPS+ dropped 5 pts to 93 and 3 more points to 90 the next year. Moises Alou was also let go - a mistake as Alou was very productive throughout his next contract, but an understandable mistake given Alou's age of 38. He did only play in 123 games the next year and 98 the year after that. But if Alou was a mistake, letting Matt Clement go was brilliant. Clement had been excellent over his three Cub years and was only 29, but Hendry let the Red Sox nab Clement on a three-year deal. Clement gave the Red Sox one slightly below average year, one half of a bad year, and one entire season lost to injury.

In 2006, it was Nomar let go - and Nomar was unable to find a job playing middle infield. He had a productive partial season as a 1B, but his bat failed him the following year, and his health failed him after that.

In 2007, Hendry let Mark Prior go - Prior has yet to pitch again in the major leagues.

In 2009, Hendry let go Kerry Wood, and traded Mark DeRosa and Jason Marquis. Marquis had an excellent season, although Sean Marshall and Randy Wells, who replaced him were better and Marquis also had his characteristic second-half slide. DeRosa and Wood, on the other hand, didn't fare as well. DeRosa's season was marred by injury and in the end, he and Mike Fontenot had identical triple slash lines v. RHP. I'd argue that moving DeRosa turned out to be a great decision - it's just that replacing him was miserably done on multiple levels. Kerry Wood was very poor in the first half of the season, making it look like letting him go was very smart. Wood turned his season around and, over all, it was right to let him go (although he might be worth bringing back in a trade of bad contracts if possible).

All in all, it seems like Hendry should only regret letting Moises Alou go, while, on the other hand, he's made some extremely prescient decisions, letting players go that I would have thought should be kept. That makes me think twice when I hear that the Cubs seem set to let Harden walk. Jim Hendry's track record on these things has earned him the benefit of the doubt.

Poll

Rich Harden?

We must keep him.

22 votes

We should at least offer arbitration.

188 votes

Let him go.

59 votes

I'm not sure what to do, but I trust Jim Hendry to make the right decision.

28 votes

297 votes | Poll has closed

Hendry's Offseason Strategy

DGU — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:58:16 -0000

Hendry's Offseason Strategy

Bruce Miles has an interesting article up with some good quotes from Hendry on his off-season strategy.
"As we've been saying from Day One, we need them to play better. But you're also going to see good players available late. I'm sure there will be some quality non-tenders. There will be some free agents that will be available late in the year as it was last year, maybe even more so this year.

"I think it's going to be an important winter for us if we can pick up some pieces that are good, quality depth-type of guys or guys that can play a few positions."

To me, this sounds like lesson learned - rather than have an off-season fixated on one answer and moving quickly to achieve that goal, Jim intends to lay back, build depth, and employ the ability to get bargains he so excels at in-season.

So, here's my question - anyone have some ideas on non-tenders we should keep our eyes open for

The Only CF That Fits for 2010

DGU — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:40:47 -0000

The Cubs want to move Fukudome back to RF and get a CF. There is a good CF available in Mike Cameron. He wouldn't be a bad acquisition, but he's RH and strikes out a lot and is old enough that sudden decline could be a big problem. Plus, with a tight budget, he could easily be cost prohibitive. The Cubs would obviously prefer a LH CF, a younger CF, and a CF with better speed. Curtis Granderson and Carlos Beltran would both be great, except their teams would have to be foolish to trade them for anything but an overwhelming offer. Indeed, both players have had trade rumors debunked.

This has led some people to look at other free agent options. There's Marlon Byrd, but he's basically the poor man's Mike Cameron. Rick Ankiel is projected to have a .310 OBP and has below average CF defense. When people look at him, squint, and say, "He's the best option," well you know things aren't good. Why not stick with Sam Fuld? Randy Winn, for example, has been good in the past, but like Ankiel had a bad season, and isn't really a CF upgrade on Dome. Why play him over Fuld? Ditto Coco Crisp.

There is, though, a young CF who is left-handed, plays great CF defense, has speed and power and is actually available. Bill James projects this player to hit .272/.325/.443, a projection that offers slight improvement on this player's 2009 #s. Of course, there's hope that he could hit even better than that since his second half numbers in 2009 were .290/.346/.497. Most importantly for the Cubs, he's still only due the league minimum - with a team who has a lot of young talent coming up, giving this player a chance makes even more sense.

The only player who makes sense for 2010 CF is Felix Pie. Baltimore doesn't have a place for him with Markakis-Reimold-Jones. We'd obviously have to offer more than we got when we traded him. Maybe Sean Marshall, expendable with Grabow, Gorzelanny, and Gaub, would do it.

He offers everything we're looking for in a CF - the only reason he wouldn't be on the top of our list is the shame of recognizing the horrid mistake of dumping him last year for Milton Bradley and Joey Gathright. Lou needs to get over the shame, though, and recognize what's best for the team now. Felix Pie is our best option for CF in 2010.

Poll

Bring back Felix Pie?

Yes, he's the best option!

14 votes

Maybe, but I wouldn't hope for much.

27 votes

No, I still don't believe he'll hit ML hitting.

116 votes

No, he'll cost too much in trade now.

15 votes

I'd like to, but I don't believe Jim Hendry will do it.

20 votes

I'd like to, but I don't believe Lou would go for it.

11 votes

203 votes | Poll has closed

Not a rumor, Bruce Miles speculates on a Bradley trade with good return

DGU — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:30:27 -0000

Not a rumor, Bruce Miles speculates on a Bradley trade with good return

I didn't want to put this in the title, but Bruce Miles speculates on a possible Bradley+Prospects for Halladay at this link. So, some won't believe this is even possible because it's Halladay (whose $$$ price tag alone may easily be a budget buster). But do you think a deal like this is the way for Hendry to go - not to eat the $$$, but to give up prospects to incline a team like the Jays to eat the contract?

Lost in the Toronto Rumor: Olney's Suggested Swaps

DGU — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 01:08:59 -0000

Lost in the Toronto Rumor: Olney's Suggested Swaps

This got lost in debunking the Toronto rumor (and also probably lost behind the subscriber wall), but Olney made some suggestions on who the Cubs might more realistically get: Carlos Silva, Derek Lowe, Gary Matthews Jr., Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, Oliver Perez, and Dontrelle Willis. How do you rank these guys?

SB Nation User Blog: DGU

Non-Tender Thread: Cubs & Others

The non-tendered player I'd most like to see made a Cub is:

Something Aaron Miles Was the Best At, or Baserunning 2009

Baserunning

Theriot, Castro, and the Future Middle Infield

Theriot, Castro, and the Future Middle Infield

Miguel Cabrera Available, which leads me to ask if Granderson really is available

Miguel Cabrera Available, which leads me to ask if Granderson really is available

Cubs 2010 2B and "the L word"

Cubs' 2010 2B?

Fontenot/Baker splitting time evenly

Baker only

Felipe Lopez

Orlando Hudson

Luis Castillo

Someone else

Fontenot/Baker in regular platoon

Ryan Theriot

On Harden and the Players Jim Hendry Lets Go

Rich Harden?

We must keep him.

We should at least offer arbitration.

Let him go.

I'm not sure what to do, but I trust Jim Hendry to make the right decision.

Hendry's Offseason Strategy

Hendry's Offseason Strategy

The Only CF That Fits for 2010

Bring back Felix Pie?

Yes, he's the best option!

Maybe, but I wouldn't hope for much.

No, I still don't believe he'll hit ML hitting.

No, he'll cost too much in trade now.

I'd like to, but I don't believe Jim Hendry will do it.

I'd like to, but I don't believe Lou would go for it.

Not a rumor, Bruce Miles speculates on a Bradley trade with good return

Not a rumor, Bruce Miles speculates on a Bradley trade with good return

Lost in the Toronto Rumor: Olney's Suggested Swaps

Lost in the Toronto Rumor: Olney's Suggested Swaps