Updated MLB draft order for 2012 to this point; just 3 Type B Free Agent picks left to be determined. A few notes:

• Carlos Beltran and Takashi Saito both had clauses in their contracts that they could not be offered arbitration.
• Roy Oswalt was not offered arbitration.
• The Red Sox will not get a compensation pick for the loss of Dan Wheeler, since he signed a minor league deal with the Indians (why did the Twins not sign him, again?)
• David Ortiz, Francisco Rodriguez, and Kelly Johnson all accepted arbitration.
• The top 15 picks in the draft are protected picks under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Previous reports had the top 10 picks being protected under the new CBA, but according to both MLBTradeRumors and Keith Law, Ryan Madson's signing makes it clear that's the case, becau
• There was a pool of Modified Type A Free Agents that do not require signing teams to relinquish their respective First Round Picks. For this pool of players, the compensated team receives the pick immediately preceding the traditional draft slot of the signing team.
• Picks TBD (for remaining unsigned "compensation" Free Agents) are denoted with ****

Got all that? Here is the draft order for the first 2 rounds (including supplemental picks):

1. Beginning of Round 1: Houston Astros
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Kansas City Royals
6. Chicago Cubs
7. San Diego Padres
8. Pittsburgh Pirates
9. Miami Marlins
10. Colorado Rockies
11. Oakland Athletics
12. New York Mets
13. Chicago White Sox
14. Cincinnati Reds
15. Cleveland Indians
16. Washington Nationals
17. Toronto Blue Jays
18. Los Angeles Dodgers
19. St. Louis Cardinals; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Albert Pujols (Angels)
20. San Francisco Giants
21. Atlanta Braves
22. Toronto Blue Jays; compensation pick for failing to sign 2011 1st rd pick Tyler Beede (Vanderbilt)
23. St. Louis Cardinals
24. Boston Red Sox
25. Tampa Bay Rays
26. Arizona Diamondbacks
27. Milwaukee Brewers; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Prince Fielder (Tigers)
28. Milwaukee Brewers
29. Texas Rangers
30. New York Yankees
31. Boston Red Sox; compensation for loss of Type A Free Agent Jonathan Papelbon (Phillies)
32. Beginning of Supplemental Type A's: Minnesota Twins; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Michael Cuddyer (Rockies)
33. San Diego Padres; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Heath Bell (Marlins)
34. Oakland Athletics; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Josh Willingham (Twins)
35. New York Mets; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Jose Reyes (Marlins)
36. St. Louis Cardinals; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Albert Pujols (Angels)
37. Boston Red Sox; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Jonathan Papelbon (Phillies)
38. Milwaukee Brewers; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Prince Fielder (Tigers)
39. Texas Rangers; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent CJ Wilson (Angels)
40. Philadelphia Phillies; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Ryan Madson (Reds)
41. Beginning of Supplemental Type B's: Houston Astros; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Clint Barmes (Pirates)
42. Minnesota Twins; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Jason Kubel (Diamondbacks)
43. Chicago Cubs; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Aramis Ramirez (Brewers)
44. San Diego Padres; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Aaron Harang (Dodgers)
45. Pittsburgh Pirates; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Ryan Doumit (Twins)
46. Colorado Rockies; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Mark Ellis (Dodgers)
47. Oakland Athletics; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent David DeJesus (Cubs)
48. Chicago White Sox; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Mark Buehrle (Marlins)
49. Cincinnati Reds; compensation pick for loss of modified Type B Free Agent Francisco Cordero (Blue Jays)
50. Toronto Blue Jays; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Frank Francisco (Mets)
51. Los Angeles Dodgers; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Rod Barajas (Pirates)
52. **** St. Louis Cardinals; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Edwin Jackson (TBD)
53. Texas Rangers; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Darren Oliver (Blue Jays)
54. **** Philadelphia Phillies; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Raul Ibanez (TBD)
55. Chicago Cubs; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Carlos Pena (Rays)
56. **** Pittsburgh Pirates; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Derrek Lee (TBD)
57. Cincinnati Reds; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Ramon Hernandez (Rcokies)
58. Toronto Blue Jays; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Jon Rauch (Mets)
59. St. Louis Cardinals; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Octavio Dotel (Tigers)
60. Toronto Blue Jays; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Jose Molina (Rays)
61. Beginning of Round 2: Houston Astros
62. Oakland Athletics; compensation pick for loss of Modified Type A Free Agent Josh Willingham (Twins)
63. Minnesota Twins
64. Seattle Mariners
65. Baltimore Orioles
66. Kansas City Royals
67. Chicago Cubs
68. San Diego Padres
69. Pittsburgh Pirates
70. San Diego Padres; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Heath Bell (Marlins)
71. New York Mets; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Jose Reyes (Marlins)
72. Minnesota Twins; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Michael Cuddyer (Rockies)
73. Colorado Rockies
74. Oakland Athletics
75. New York Mets
76. Chicago White Sox
77. Philadelphia Phillies; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Ryan Madson (Reds)
78. Cincinnati Reds
79. Cleveland Indians
80. Washington Nationals
81. Toronto Blue Jays
82. Los Angeles Dodgers
83. Texas Rangers; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent CJ Wilson
84. San Francisco Giants
85. Atlanta Braves
86. St. Louis Cardinals
87. Boston Red Sox
88. Tampa Bay Rays
89. Arizona Diamondbacks
90. Detroit Tigers
91. Milwaukee Brewers
92. Texas Rangers
93. New York Yankees
94. Philadelphia Phillies

From a Twins' standpoint, they they will now have the 32nd overall pick as compensation for Michael Cuddyer's departure and #42 as compensation for Jason Kubel's departure. Assuming the above holds (ie all of the remaining compensation Free Agents find new homes) the Twins' picks will be:

#2, #32, #42, #63, #72, and #96 overall.

I will keep this up to date as we move along. There are only 3 remaining "compensation" Free Agents left unsigned.

Well, our season is officially over. This team is 3-13 and has holes all over the place. But in order to fill those holes, beyond the draft, the team needs money. So let's take a look at the 2012 Minnesota Vikings cap situation, using Tom Pelissero's latest as a guide: http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Whos_under_contract_whos_not_as_Vikings_turn_the_page_to_2012010412

More after the jump...

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As has been discussed, the Vikings will likely have some extra draft picks to work with this year based on the NFL compensatory draft pick system that is put in place for the net loss of free agents from the previous offseason. The formula that the NFL uses for awarding the picks is a well-guarded secret that many NFL teams do not even know, but by looking back at past compensatory picks we can have a pretty good gauge of exactly what is used. And no, Sid Hartman does not have a "close personal friend" who knows what he's talking about when he suggested in a recent column that the Vikings will get two 4th rd picks as compensation. We can be almost certain of what picks the Vikings will receive. I'll explain in detail after the jump:

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Continuing from previous posts, this is the current 2012 NFL draft order, pending playoffs:

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14; SOS of .539)
2. St. Louis Rams (2-14; SOS of .590)
3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13; SOS of .559)
4. Cleveland Browns (4-12; SOS of .531)
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12; SOS of .551)
6. Washington Redskins (5-11; SOS of .477)
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11; SOS of .500)
8. Miami Dolphins (6-10; SOS of .504) This pick is a coin flip between Miami & Carolina
9. Carolina Panthers (6-10; SOS of .504)
10. Buffalo Bills (6-10; SOS of .520)
11. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9; SOS of .512) This pick is a coin flip between Kansas City & Seattle
12. Seattle Seahawks (7-9; SOS of .512)
13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8; SOS of .469)
14. Dallas Cowboys (8-8; SOS of .473)
15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8; SOS of .488)
16. New York Jets (8-8; SOS of .500)
17. Oakland Raiders (8-8; SOS of .504) Traded to the Cincinnati Bengals (Carson Palmer trade)
18. San Diego Chargers (8-8; SOS of .516)
19. Chicago Bears (8-8; SOS of .527)
20. Tennessee Titans (9-7; SOS of .461)
21. Denver Broncos (8-8; SOS of .520) **
22. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7; SOS of .492) **
23. New York Giants (9-7; SOS of .520) **
24. Houston Texans (10-6; SOS of .453) **
25. Atlanta Falcons (10-6; SOS of .480) ** Traded to the Cleveland Browns (Julio Jones trade)
26. Detroit Lions (10-6; SOS of .535) **
27. Baltimore Ravens (12-4; SOS of .477) **
28. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4; SOS of .492) **
29. New Orleans Saints (13-3; SOS of .441) ** Traded to the New England Patriots (Mark Ingram trade)
30. New England Patriots (13-3; SOS of .449) **
31. San Francisco 49ers (13-3; SOS of .449) **
32. Green Bay Packers (15-1; SOS of .457) **

** Pending 2012 NFL Playoff results.

For the Vikings, our spot is clear; #3 overall. Most likely we end up with either Robert Griffin III (or at least his trade rights) or Matt Kalil. Nice spot to be. I will continue to update this throughout the playoffs and will be unveiling the full likely NFL compensatory picks (including the Vikings') in the coming days.

Updated MLB draft order for 2012 to this point; a few Type A/Type B Free Agent picks left to be determined.

Carlos Beltran and Takashi Saito both had clauses in their contracts that they could not be offered arbitration, and Roy Oswalt was not offered arbitration, so those 3 are not included here. Ditto for David Ortiz, Francisco Rodriguez, and Kelly Johnson, all of which accepted arbitration. I will modify this as we continue throughout the offseason:

Continue reading this post »

Continuing from previous posts, this is the current 2012 NFL draft order. This of course will vary slightly game by game for each team because of the strength of schedule tiebreakers, and I will not include any divisional standing/playoff consideration as those will change--all non-playoff teams constitute the top 20 picks, regardless of record--- but this is the updated current NFL draft order for 2012:

1. Indianapolis Colts (1-13; SOS of .541)
2. St. Louis Rams (2-12; SOS of .566)
3. Minnesota Vikings (2-12; SOS of .587)
4. Cleveland Browns (4-10; SOS of .495)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10; SOS of .531)
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10; SOS of .551)
7. Washington Redskins (5-9; SOS of .495) This pick is currently a coin flip between Washington & Miami
8. Miami Dolphins (5-9; SOS of .495)
9. Buffalo Bills (5-9; SOS of .500) This pick is currently a coin flip between Buffalo & Carolina
10. Carolina Panthers (5-9; SOS of .500)
11. Philadelphia Eagles (6-8; SOS of .505)
12. Kansas City Chiefs (6-8; SOS of .510)
13. Arizona Cardinals (7-7; SOS of .459) This pick is currently a coin flip between Arizona & Tennessee
14. Tennessee Titans (7-7; SOS of .459)
15. Seattle Seahawks (7-7; SOS of .490)
16. San Diego Chargers (7-7; SOS of .510)
17. New York Giants (7-7; SOS of .520)
18. Chicago Bears (7-7; SOS of .526) This pick is currently a coin flip between Chicago & Oakland
19. Oakland Raiders (7-7; SOS of .526) Traded to Cincinnati Bengals (Carson Palmer trade)
20. Dallas Cowboys (8-6; SOS of .469)
21. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6; SOS of .474)
22. New York Jets (8-6; SOS of .500)
23. Denver Broncos (8-6; SOS of .531)
24. Atlanta Falcons (9-5; SOS of .464) Traded to Cleveland Browns (Julius Jones trade)
25. Detroit Lions (9-5; SOS of .510)
26. Houston Texans (10-4; SOS of .454)
27. Baltimore Ravens (10-4; SOS of .490)
28. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4; SOS of .531)
29. New Orleans Saints (11-3; SOS of .429) Traded to New England Patriots (Mark Ingram trade)
30. New England Patriots (11-3; SOS of .464)
31. San Francisco 49ers (11-3; SOS of .480)
32. Green Bay Packers (13-1; SOS of .439)

As for the Vikings' draft position/Strength of Schedule battle with St. Louis, it stands as:

Minnesota Vikings current opponents' strength of schedule: 115-81; SOS of .587

St. Louis Rams' current opponents' strength of schedule: 111-85; SOS of .566

Factoring in remaining schedules:

St. Louis Rams: Pittsburgh (10-4), San Francisco (11-3)

Minnesota Vikings: Washington (5-9), Chicago (7-7)

So when those are factored in we get:

Minnesota Vikings' current opponents' strength of schedule including remaining games: 127-97; SOS of .567

St. Louis Rams' current opponents' strength of schedule including remaining games: 132-92; SOS of .589

Keep in mind that if they tie in overall strength of schedule, the next tiebreaker is conference record, and the Vikings are currently 2-8 with the Rams being 1-10. We likely lose that tiebreaker. It's going to be really, really close, folks, but the Vikings did well this week in the SOS tiebreaker with the Rams. As a reminder of what to be watching for: Uncommon games on our schedules:

St. Louis: Philadelphia, New York Giants, Dallas, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Seattle (2x), Arizona, San Francisco (2x)

Minnesota: Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Kansas City, San Diego, Oakland, Denver, Chicago (2x), Detroit (2x), Green Bay

So again, we should be rooting for the teams of the NFC East, AFC North, and NFC West, and against the teams of the NFC South, the AFC West, and the NFC North if we want the #2 pick. And of course rooting for St. Louis and Indianapolis.

I will continue to update this order throughout the season (including playoffs).

Updated MLB draft order for 2012 to this point; a few Type A/Type B Free Agent picks left to be determined.

Carlos Beltran and Takashi Saito both had clauses in their contracts that they could not be offered arbitration, and Roy Oswalt was not offered arbitration, so those 3 are not included here. Ditto for David Ortiz, Francisco Rodriguez, and Kelly Johnson, all of which accepted arbitration. I will modify this as we go along throughout the offseason:

Continue reading this post »

Continuing with my previous post about strength of schedule and the outlook for the Vikings' draft position, I thought I'd keep us up to date on the full NFL draft order. This of course will vary game by game for each team because of the strength of schedule tiebreakers, and I will not include any divisional standing/playoff consideration as those will change--all non-playoff teams constitute the top 20 picks, regardless of record--- but this is the updated current NFL draft order for 2012:

1. Indianapolis Colts (0-13; SOS of .550)
2. St. Louis Rams (2-11; SOS of .556)
3. Minnesota Vikings (2-11; SOS of .574)
4. Carolina Panthers (4-9; SOS of .479; owns conference record tie-breaker)
5. Washington Redskins (4-9; SOS of .479)
6. Cleveland Browns (4-9; SOS of .497)
7. Miami Dolphins (4-9; SOS of .509)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9; SOS of .533)
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9; SOS of .550)
10. Kansas City Chiefs (5-8; SOS of .479)
11. Philadelphia Eagles (5-8; SOS of .491)
12. Buffalo Bills (5-8; SOS of .503)
13. Arizona Cardinals (6-7; SOS of .467)
14. Seattle Seahawks (6-7; SOS of .485)
15. San Diego Chargers (6-7; SOS of .509)
16. Dallas Cowboys (7-6; SOS of .467)
17. Tennessee Titans (7-6; SOS of .497)
18. New York Giants (7-6; SOS of .515)
19. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6; SOS of .521); This pick is currently a coin flip between Cincinnati & Chicago
20. Chicago Bears (7-6; SOS of .521)
21. Oakland Raiders pick (7-6; SOS of .533) Traded to Cincinnati Bengals (Carson Palmer trade)
22. Atlanta Falcons (8-5; SOS of .473) Traded to Cleveland Browns (Julius Jones trade)
23. New York Jets (8-5; SOS of .503)
24. Denver Broncos (8-5; SOS of .515); This pick is currently a coin flip between Denver & Detroit
25. Detroit Lions (8-5; SOS of .515)
26. San Francisco 49ers (10-3; SOS of .450) This pick is currently a coin flip between SanFrancisco & New England
27. New England Patriots (10-3; SOS of .450)
28. New Orleans Saints (10-3; SOS of .462) Traded to New England Patriots (Mark Ingram trade)
29. Houston Texans (10-3; SOS of .467)
30. Baltimore Ravens (10-3; SOS of .497)
31. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3; SOS of .509)
32. Green Bay Packers (13-0; SOS of .444); worth noting GB has had the easiest schedule in the entire league this year so far.

As for the Vikings' draft position/Strength of Schedule battle with St. Louis, it stands as:

Minnesota Vikings current opponents' strength of schedule: 97-72; SOS of .574

St. Louis Rams' current opponents' strength of schedule: 94-75; SOS of .556

Factoring in remaining schedules:

St. Louis Rams: Cincinnati (7-6), Pittsburgh (10-3), San Francisco (10-3)

Minnesota Vikings: New Orleans (10-3), Washington (4-9), Chicago (7-6)

So when those are factored in we get:

Minnesota Vikings' current opponents' strength of schedule including remaining games: 128-90; SOS of .587

St. Louis Rams' current opponents' strength of schedule including remaining games: 129-89; SOS of .592

That means that ONE game separates the Rams and Vikings in the "projected" strength of schedule. Keep in mind that if they tie in overall strength of schedule, the next tiebreaker is conference record, and the Vikings are currently 2-7 with the Rams being 1-10. We lose that tiebreaker. It's going to be really, really close, folks. As a reminder of what to be watching for: Uncommon games on our schedules:

St. Louis: Philadelphia, New York Giants, Dallas, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Seattle (2x), Arizona, San Francisco (2x)

Minnesota: Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Kansas City, San Diego, Oakland, Denver, Chicago (2x), Detroit (2x), Green Bay

So again, we should be rooting for the teams of the NFC East, AFC North, and AFC West, and against the teams of the NFC South, the AFC West, and the NFC North if we want the #2 pick. And of course rooting for St. Louis.

I will continue to update this order throughout the season (including playoffs).

Well, if you're like me at this point in the season you almost don't care about Minnesota Viking wins; you care about Viking draft position. The ideal scenario is to show individual progression throughout the rest of the year, but to not come away with a W. The Denver game, for instance, was pretty much a perfect scenario. Good games from Harvin, Ponder, Rudolph, D'Imperio, and others, but a loss in the end. I wouldn't mind that occurring 4 more times this season to close it out. Hollow victories at this point do nothing more than put the Vikings in a worse draft position.

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Updated MLB draft order for 2012 to this point; a few Type A/Type B Free Agent picks left to be determined.

Carlos Beltran had a clause in his contract that he could not be offered arbitration, and Roy Oswalt was not offered arbitration, so both of those Type A's are gone as well. Ditto for David Ortiz, Francisco Rodriguez, and Kelly Johnson, all of which accepted arbitration. I will modify this as we go along throughout the offseason:

1. Beginning of Round 1: Houston Astros
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Kansas City Royals
6. Chicago Cubs
7. San Diego Padres
8. Pittsburgh Pirates
9. Miami Marlins
10. Colorado Rockies
11. Oakland Athletics
12. New York Mets
13. Chicago White Sox
14. Cincinnati Reds
15. Cleveland Indians
16. Washington Nationals
17. Toronto Blue Jays
18. Los Angeles Dodgers
19. St. Louis Cardinals; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Albert Pujols (Angels)
20. San Francisco Giants
21. Atlanta Braves
22. Toronto Blue Jays; compensation pick for failing to sign 2011 1st rd pick Tyler Beede
23. St. Louis Cardinals
24. Boston Red Sox
25. Tampa Bay Rays
26. Arizona Diamondbacks
27. Detroit Tigers
28. Milwaukee Brewers
29. Texas Rangers
30. New York Yankees
31. Boston Red Sox; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Jonathan Papelbon (Phillies)
32. Lottery Pick: TBD
33. Lottery Pick: TBD
34. Lottery Pick: TBD
35. Lottery Pick: TBD
36. Lottery Pick: TBD
37. Lottery Pick: TBD
38. Beginning of Supplemental Type A's: San Diego Padres; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Heath Bell (Marlins)
39. New York Mets; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Jose Reyes (Marlins)
40. St. Louis Cardinals; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Albert Pujols (Angels)
41. Boston Red Sox; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Jonathan Papelbon (Phillies)
42. Texas Rangers; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent CJ Wilson (Angels)
43. Beginning of TBD Supplemental Type A's: Minnesota Twins; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Michael Cuddyer
44. Oakland Athletics; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Josh Willingham
45. Milwaukee Brewers; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Prince Fielder
46. Philadelphia Phillies; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Jimmy Rollins
    
47. Philadelphia Phillies; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Ryan Madson
    
48. Beginning of Supplemental Type B's: Houston Astros; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Clint Barmes (Pirates)
49. Chicago Cubs; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Aramis Ramirez (Brewers)
50. San Diego Padres; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Aaron Harang (Dodgers)
51. Pittsburgh Pirates; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Ryan Doumit (Twins)
52. Colorado Rockies; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Mark Ellis (Dodgers)
53. Oakland Athletics; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent David DeJesus (Cubs)
54. Chicago White Sox; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Mark Buehrle (Marlins)
55. Cincinnati Reds; compensation pick for loss of modified Type B Free Agent Ramon Hernandez (Rockies)
56. Toronto Blue Jays; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Frank Francisco (Mets)
57. Los Angeles Dodgers; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Rod Barajas (Pirates)
58. St. Louis Cardinals; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Octavio Dotel (Tigers)
59. Toronto Blue Jays; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Jon Rauch (Mets
60. Toronto Blue Jays: compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Jose Molina (Rays)
61. Beginning of TBD Supplemental Type B's: Minnesota Twins; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Jason Kubel
62. Pittsburgh Pirates; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Derrek Lee
63. Cincinnati Reds; compensation pick for loss of modified Type B Free Agent Francisco Cordero
64. Boston Red Sox; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Dan Wheeler
65. Texas Rangers; compensation pick for loss of modified Type B Free Agent Darren Oliver
66. Philadelphia Phillies; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Raul Ibanez
67. Chicago Cubs; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Carlos Pena
68. St. Louis Cardinals; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Edwin Jackson
69. Beginning of Round 2: Houston Astros
70. Minnesota Twins
71. Seattle Mariners
72. Baltimore Orioles
73. Kansas City Royals
74. Chicago Cubs
75. San Diego Padres
76. Pittsburgh Pirates
77. San Diego Padres; compensation pick (supplemental) for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Heath Bell (Marlins)
78. New York Mets; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Jose Reyes (Marlins)
79. Colorado Rockies
80. Oakland Athletics
81. New York Mets
82. Chicago White Sox
83. Cincinnati Reds
84. Cleveland Indians
85. Washington Nationals
86. Toronto Blue Jays
87. Los Angeles Dodgers
88. Texas Rangers; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent CJ Wilson (Angels)
    
89. San Francisco Giants
90. Atlanta Braves
91. St. Louis Cardinals
92. Boston Red Sox
93. Tampa Bay Rays
94. Arizona Diamondbacks
95. Detroit Tigers
96. Milwaukee Brewers
97. Texas Rangers
98. New York Yankees
99. Philadelphia Phillies.
100. Lottery Pick: TBD
101. Lottery Pick: TBD
102. Lottery Pick: TBD
103. Lottery Pick: TBD
104. Lottery Pick: TBD
105. Lottery Pick: TBD

Traditional Type A picks left to be awarded based on signing team (won't know draft position until then); Prince Fielder, Jimmy Rollins

Modified Type A picks left to be awarded based on signing team (ditto): Ryan Madson, Michael Cuddyer, Josh Willingham

One last note; I have included the new revenue-sharing lottery picks under the new CBA, which will be instituted this year. There will be a lottery among the 10 lowest revenue clubs and the 10 smallest market clubs for 6 picks immediately following the 1st rd (before the Type A/Type B supplemental picks) and 6 picks immediately following the 2nd rd. We just have no idea what this looks like yet or which teams are eligible/will win, so for now, I'm leaving that alone.

Well, Matt Capps is back at closer, a move the vast majority of fans are not okay with, and for good reason; draft picks matter. Matt Capps was worth a top 60 draft pick for the Twins in the Rule 4 draft. For free. And they instead passed and went back to Capps. They could have signed a similar, or better (ex; Jonathan Broxton) FA reliever for similar or less money AND received a top 60 draft pick. Again, they passed. And Terry Ryan's comments are concerning for the organization as whole:

I asked Terry how much #Twins consider draft compensation w/ FA decisions: “Not that much. We’ll take it. But we’d rather have the player.”

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Well, figured I'd throw out my offseason blueprint to the mix as well. Let's begin with a couple of assumptions:

1) That payroll will be around the $115M or so it was last year. Dave St. Peter's comments and Terry Ryan's own comments lead me to believe this.

2) That Denard Span, Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel, Justin Morneau, Francisco Liriano, and Scott Baker will be healthier this year. You could easily argue that those are the Twins' 6 best players on their roster (and I would argue that) and while I don't put all of the 2011 woes on injuries, any rational person has to put a huge share of the blame there.

3) Ben Revere, Joe Benson, Liam Hendriks, and Chris Parmelee all need a little bit more time before given starting roles.

With these three assumptions in mind, we go forward.

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As Twins fans we've been clamoring for a #1 starter all year long.  Barring a trade for an established guy like Felix Hernandez, Cole Hamels, or Zack Greinke, this has led to plenty of speculation about trading for "upside" guys like Jonathan Sanchez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Edinson Volquez, or even signing guys like Rich Harden or Erik Bedard.  And I'm not opposed to any of those, but lest we forget we do have a potential ace in house.  

Continue reading this post »

So by now most baseball fans know just how important utilizing the MLB Free Agent compensation system to an organization's advantage is (just look at Tampa Bay and Toronto in the 2011 Rule IV draft as examples).  We also know that Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer are teetering on the edge of being ranked as Type A Free Agents by Elias' rating system based on their play in the 2010 and 2011 seasons, and for the OF/1b/DH grouping, the Elias rankings are based on the following: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI.  

As Type B Free Agents each would only garner a supplemental draft pick for the Twins if Minnesota offers arbitration and they decline and sign elsewhere.  As Type A Free Agents, assuming the Twins offer arbitration and each declines (I find both likely at this point), the Twins would gain an extra 1st rd pick (or 2nd rd pick from a bottom-15 team; top 15 picks in the first round are protected) from a team that signed either one as a Free Agent as well as a supplemental pick for each.  So the difference between them being Type A and Type B Free Agents could mean the difference between gaining 2 top 60 picks (supplemental picks) and 4 top 60 picks (first round picks and supplemental picks).  

And given the relative lack of OF options on the free agent market this year, Kubel and Cuddyer figure to be two of the most highly sought after FA's on the market.  Carlos Beltran figures to be the most in demand since he has a contract clause which precludes the Giants from offering him arbitration after the season and thus will cost a signing team no draft pick compensation.  But after him, Kubel and Cuddyer are probably the two best FA options, given age and talent.  

It's worth noting that Matt Capps would qualify as a Type A Free Agent (if this example alone doesn't illustrate there is a flaw in the current system, I don't know what does) but the Twins would be fairly insane to offer him arbitration knowing that he could accept a 1-year deal in the $9-10M range through arbitration.  So we'll just focus on Cuddyer and Kubel's cases and what the next month means for them and the Twins.

More after the jump.

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Put another strike against Gardenhire; apparently he's been lying to us all along.  Uggh.

So it looks like:

1) There's no reason for Drew being Pavano's "personal" catcher.

2) Mauer sitting instead of DH'ing is not what Mauer wants.

3) Gardenhire is a moron.  In other, related news; the world is not flat.

Also, how did he think that word of this would never get out?

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/119373964.html

There's a lot yet to happen in FA, but I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at supplemental draft order as of right now, with the assumption that all remaining Type A/Type B Free Agents---those ranked as such who were offered arbitration and declined---sign with other teams.  This won't be the case, as a few will always return to their 2010 club.  Notables in this category likely include Paul Konerko, Grant Balfour, and Scott Downs among the Type A's, as well as others.  Anyway, the following is a look at where the supplemental draft order looks to be heading, as of today.  Also, this is an analysis of the supplemental round only, not the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd rounds of the MLB draft, which is obviously yet to be determined based on where the remaining Type A Free Agents sign:

Let's begin.  Here is the list of players that were offered Type A arbitration and declined: 
Grant Balfour
Adrian Beltre
Carl Crawford
Jorge de la Rosa; Signed back with the Rockies. 
Scott Downs
Adam Dunn; Signed with the White Sox. 
Paul Konerko
Cliff Lee
Victor Martinez; Signed with the Tigers. 
Carl Pavano
Rafael Soriano
Jayson Werth; Signed with the Nationals.

Order is determined by reverse-order in the standings, with each team that loses a player getting a pick, then restarting the order for teams losing multiple Type A Free Agents.  As of today we're left with the following for Type A compensation order: 

#34-Washington (Adam Dunn) 
#35-Toronto (Scott Downs) 
#36-Chicago White Sox (Paul Konerko) 
#37-Boston (Victor Martinez) 
#38-Texas (Cliff Lee) 
#39-Minnesota (Carl Pavano) 
#40-Tampa Bay (Rafael Soriano) 
#41-Philadelphia (Jayson Werth) 
#42-Boston (Adrian Beltre) 
#43-Tampa Bay (Carl Crawford) 
#44-Tampa Bay (Grant Balfour) 

For Type B Free Agents we have the following that have been offered, and declined, arbitration: 
Joaquin Benoit; Tampa Bay; signed with the Tigers. 
John Buck; Toronto; signed with the Marlins.
Randy Choate; Tampa Bay 
Kevin Correia; San Diego; signed with the Pirates. 
Jesse Crain; Minnesota
Octavio Dotel; Colorado
Jon Garland; San Diego; signed with the Dodgers. 
Kevin Gregg; Toronto
Brad Hawpe; Tampa Bay
Trevor Hoffman; Milwaukee
Orlando Hudson; Minnesota
Adam Laroche; Arizona
Felipe Lopez; Boston
Miguel Olivo; Blue Jays
JJ Putz; Chicago White Sox; signed with the Diamondbacks. 
Chad Qualls; Tampa Bay
Yorvit Torrealba; San Diego; signed with the Rangers. 
Juan Uribe; San Francisco; signed with the Dodgers. 
Javier Vazquez; New York Yankees; signed with Marlins 

Leaving us with the following, if the above holds, for Type B compensation order: 
#45-Arizona (Adam Laroche) 
#46-Milwaukee (Trevor Hoffman) 
#47-Colorado (Octavio Dotel) 
#48-Toronto (John Buck) 
#49-Chicago White Sox (JJ Putz) 
#50-Boston (Felipe Lopez) 
#51-San Diego (Jon Garland) 
#52-San Francisco (Juan Uribe) 
#53-Minnesota (Orlando Hudson) 
#54-New York Yankees (Javier Vazquez) 
#55-Tampa Bay (Brad Hawpe) 
#56-Toronto (Kevin Gregg) 
#57-San Diego (Yorvit Torrealba) 
#58-Minnesota (Jesse Crain) 
#59-Tampa Bay (Joaquin Benoit) 
#60-Toronto (Miguel Olivo) 
#61-San Diego (Kevin Correia) 
#62-Tampa Bay (Randy Choate) 
#63-Tampa Bay (Chad Qualls)  #63-Tampa Bay (Chad Qualls) 
There are 33 picks in the 1st round of the 2011 MLB Rule IV Draft.  One for each of the teams, plus 3 compensation picks from un-signed first round draft picks from 2010.  So we're left with, assuming the above scenarios, the following draft order for the supplemental round of the 2011 MLB Draft: 

#34-Washington (Adam Dunn) 
#35-Toronto (Scott Downs) 
#36-Chicago White Sox (Paul Konerko) 
#37-Boston (Victor Martinez) 
#38-Texas (Cliff Lee) 
#39-Minnesota (Carl Pavano) 
#40-Tampa Bay (Rafael Soriano) 
#41-Philadelphia (Jayson Werth) 
#42-Boston (Adrian Beltre) 
#43-Tampa Bay (Carl Crawford) 
#44-Tampa Bay (Grant Balfour) 
#45-Arizona (Adam Laroche) 
#46-Milwaukee (Trevor Hoffman) 
#47-Colorado (Octavio Dotel) 
#48-Toronto (John Buck) 
#49-Chicago White Sox (JJ Putz) 
#50-Boston (Felipe Lopez) 
#51-San Diego (Jon Garland) 
#52-San Francisco (Juan Uribe) 
#53-Minnesota (Orlando Hudson) 
#54-New York Yankees (Javier Vazquez) 
#55-Tampa Bay (Brad Hawpe) 
#56-Toronto (Kevin Gregg) 
#57-San Diego (Yorvit Torrealba) 
#58-Minnesota (Jesse Crain) 
#59-Tampa Bay (Joaquin Benoit) 
#60-Toronto (Miguel Olivo) 
#61-San Diego (Kevin Correia) 
#62-Tampa Bay (Randy Choate) 
#63-Tampa Bay (Chad Qualls) 

Lots to do this offseason, no doubt.  Let's jump right in:

Let them leave: Randy Flores/Ron Mahay.  Not much to say here.

Arbitration: I'm offering it to both Pavano and Hudson, and letting them walk.  I think Pavano's going to end up with at least one 3-year offer at around $30M and that's just too much considering our other options.  And I think Hudson will get a 2-year deal this time, and I don't like the chances for him to be productive/healthy in 2012.  I also think Alexi Casilla at 2b is a reasonable area to save money.  I'm letting them both walk and collecting 3 top 60 picks.  Here's where it gets dicey:

I'm offering arbitration to ALL of Matt Guerrier/Jon Rauch/Jesse Crain.  Each could net around $4M for one season, but I think it's a worthy gamble in all 3 cases.  I think both Rauch and Crain will want a chance to close and I think they'll both get multi-year offers.  If not, I think each is tradeable at 1 year/$4M.  And I wouldn't mind Crain back.  More on that later.  Guerrier's the really big risk IMO.  As a Type A, it's going to be tougher for a team to justify signing him.  But there is a chance that a team signing higher ranked FA's would sign him as well.  And I think it's justifiable to a lot of teams to give up a 2nd or 3rd rd pick for Matt Guerrier.  Again, if not, it's either 1 year at $4M or a trade of him at that price.  I'd take that risk.

Matt Capps/Brian Fuentes: I'm tendering and trading Capps.  There are better, cheaper options in FA this year.  With Fuentes, I'm giving him a 2-year deal with a promise at a shot at closing, both to begin 2011, and in 2012 (planning on declining Nathan's option).  2 years/$11M.  I'm also re-signing Crain, if possible, for 2 years/$8M, also offering him a shot at closing.  In fact, I'd treat the CL role, at least to start 2011, as a platoon.  With Nathan hopefully working his way into the mix as the year progresses.  

Jim Thome: I'm bringing him back at 1 year/$5M.  I share the same concerns as most with him, but I don't see a lot of better options, and I like the depth he provides.  Plus, I think the Twins want to see him reach 600 in a Twins uniform and contribute in the clubhouse.  I'd use him a little more sparingly (hopefully) in 2011 than in 2010.  

Extensions: 2 players I am offering extensions to as perhaps the highest offseason priorities for the team IMO.  Francisco Liriano and JJ Hardy.  If we wait until next offseason to sign Liriano, I think it'll be too late.  I expect him to have a big year next year another year removed from surgery and with a full offseason of rest (he pitched over 240 innings last year including winter ball) and that's going to make his price go through the roof.  I'm locking him up for 4 years/$40M.  JJ Hardy is much the same.  I expect a good year from him next year and a relative return to health.  Given the weak SS options, if we don't sign him to an extension now, I think we lose him in 2012, with no forseeable great replacement option.  I'm locking him up for 3 years/$20M.  

Considerations: Delmon Young and Kevin Slowey.  Neither of these may be popular, especially in Slowey's case, but I believe you seriously consider locking both up, whether they're in your future plans or not.  Both figure to only get more expensive.  I'd consider 3-4 year deals for both.

More after the jump.

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So I had a random thought; Hopefully Joe Nathan is just fine and he's working his way through scar tissue in his elbow after surgery this offseason, but if not, if he needs more surgery and is going to be out for an extended period, what about an option that's not currently on the team?  There's an option out there that is getting up there in years, but in his career he has 213 wins and 154 saves.  And Gardy might not have a more favorite guy on the team given his "grizzled" veteran status.  If you haven't guessed already, I'm talking about John Smoltz.  Here's why I'd like to see this IF the worst case scenario with Nathan presents itself:

1) He's still on the market.  I'm not sure there's a better guy out there on the relief market, despite his advancing age of 42.

2) Tied in with the above, he's going to come cheap.  You figure he's not going to cost more than a couple of million dollars for 2010, which is not unimportant for a team that's already pushing its payroll of $96 million to the limits.

3) The Twins offer him a great opportunity, not only for the opportunity to close once again, but also of a real contender this year, with a much improved lineup and a very solid group of setup men.

4) He'd be a tremendous influence on a young staff, especially a guy like Francisco Liriano, and a talented crop of possible 2010 young, talented relievers like Anthony Slama, Alex Burnett, Rob Delaney, and maybe, if he rises quickly, Billy Bullock.  

5) He's been a closer before, and been a damn good one.  Maybe the best I've ever seen, with apologies to Dennis Eckersley and Mariano Rivera.  Smoltz has been a HOF caliber starter in his career, so it makes sense he'd dominate in relief.  But what he did for his 3 years in Atlanta as closer was elite, highlighted by his 2003 campaign when he had an absurd ERA+ of 383 -- you read that right, 383 -- and gave up just 8 Earned Runs in 64.1 innings of work.  Not everyone can close, but John Smoltz has certainly demonstrated that he can, and then some.

5) And this is the most important point, but also it's biggest question mark; Can he still wing it?  His time in Boston in 2009 was nothing to write home about.  Was it mechanical, as he seems to claim, or has the age-decline just finally taken its toll?  

His ERA+ in 2008 with Atlanta was still an amazing 164, albeit in 28 innings.  In 2007, it was 140, in over 200 innings.  In 2009 with Boston?  A pathetic ERA+ of 56 in 40 innings.  In St. Louis he rebounded to a slightly below average ERA+ of 96 in 38 innings.  Not exactly screaming "sign him" but a huge improvement over his short time in Boston.  Of course the leagues and division change probably factored into that, as he went from the best division in the sport to arguably its worst.  But the improvement was still there.  His K/9 was a solid 9.5 and his K/BB was a great 4.44 with the Cardinals.  And let's not forget that his entire 2009 with the Cardinals came as a starter.  One has to think that he could improve, maybe greatly so, on those numbers as a reliever again.

Smoltz also sported a BAbip of .354 for the year, which is pretty ridiculously high.  That means a huge portion of his numbers last year were due to bad luck.  

In summation, I hope we don't even need this option.  I hope Joe Nathan's right elbow is just sore and he'll be back to being (arguably) the best closer in baseball by April, but if not I'd take a long look at John Smoltz.  Yes he's old.  He's 42 years old, turning 43 in late May.  Not to make a comparison, but the great Mariano Rivera is turning 41 in 2010, and Trevor Hoffman is turning 43.  I'm not sure John Smoltz has more left in the tank.  I'm not sure he's the same guy that's a sure-fire Hall of Famer.  I'm not sure he'd make a good closer for the Twins in 2010 if needed.  But if the worst case scenario plays out with Joe Nathan, I'd sure like to see the Twins take a flyer to find out.

Thought we'd take a look at the updated 2010 payroll, so here goes: 

C-Mauer-$20M (I'm banking on a raise for this year with his extension)

1b-Morneau-$15M

2b-Punto (uggh)-$4M

SS-Hardy-$5.1M

3b-Harris-$1.45M

RF-Cuddyer-$9.4167M

CF-Span-$470K (my pre-arbitration estimate)

LF-Young-$2.6M

DH-Kubel-$4.1M

Bench: Casilla-$450K

Pridie/Martin-$430K

Morales-$430K

Tolbert-$450K

Total offense: $63.85M

Baker-$3M

Slowey-$470K

Blackburn-$470K

Pavano-$7M

Liriano-$1.6M

Bullpen:

Nathan-$11.25M

Rauch-$2.9M

Mijares-$470K

Neshek-$625K

Crain-$2M

Guerrier-$3.15M

Duensing/Condrey-?

Total staff: $29.34M

So I have total payroll at basically $96.675M, plus whatever the figures come to for Condrey. I'd guess that would put us as a total of around $98M or just under that. Meaning assuming we are giving Mauer a raise right away to $20M, and have a payroll of around $100M, we only have about $2M to work with to find an upgrade at 2b, 3b, and/or SP, plus a potential bench bat. That makes it that much more critical, IMO, to deal Crain/Guerrier and free up that $3-5M or so in payroll.

Anyway, thoughts? I thought this would help us get an updated look.

Well, I think we've all heard that Jake Peavy looks like he is going to be traded.  I also think that it is becoming painfully obvious that the Braves are a distinct possibility; in fact, in my opinion, they are his most likely destination.  Recent reports have talks heating up.  I think the Twins should get in on the action.  To me it makes all kinds of sense.  The Twins have what both the Padres and the Braves need most; young, athletic, talented outfielders, and young, established pitching.   We have all of Kubel/Cuddyer/Gomez/Span/Young.  And both Perkins and Blackburn.  And both the Padres and Braves have what the Twins need most; young, talented infielders, including 3b.  The Padres have an extra 3b in Kouzmanoff and Headley.  And the Braves have both an extra 3b in Prado, as well as an extra MI in having Escobar, Kelly Johnson, and Lillibridge.  I think the Twins should pounce.  And I think a deal should revolve around a package such as this:

Kevin Kouzmanoff/Yunel Escobar/reliever to the Twins
Delmon Young/Jake Peavy to the Braves
Jordan Schaffer/Glen Perkins/Tommy Hanson/Matt Guerrier/2 other prospects to the Padres

Twins give up: Delmon Young, Glen Perkins, Matt Guerrier, a prospect

Twins get: Yunel Escobar, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and a reliever

Braves give up: Yunel Escobar, Jordan Schaffer, Tommy Hanson, another prospect, and a major league reliever

Braves get: Jake Peavy and Delmon Young

Padres give up: Jake Peavy, Kevin Kouzmanoff

Padres get: Jordan Schaffer, Glen Perkins, Tommy Hanson, Matt Guerrier, a prospect from the Twins, and a prospect from the Braves.

Something along those lines would seem to satisfy all parties in my mind.  

The teams would end up with (longterm):

Twins:
Span-LF
Escobar-SS
Mauer-C
Morneau-1b
Kouzmanoff-3b
Kubel-DH
Cuddyer-RF
Casilla-2b
Gomez-CF
Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, one of Humber/Mulvey/Swarzak

Braves:
Johnson-2b
Kotchman-1b
Chipper-3b (Prado almost ready)
McCann-C
Young-LF
Francouer-RF (Heyward on the way)
Brandon Jones-CF (Gorkys almost ready)
Lillibridge-SS
Peavy, Jurrjens, Smoltz, Glavine, Reyes/Campillo (with Morton and one of Reyes/Campillo to replace Smoltz/Glavine in 2010)

Padres:
Schaffer-CF
Gerut-RF
Headley-3b
Gonzalez-1b
Hairston-LF
Greene-SS
Antonelli-2b
C-whoever
Young, Hanson, Perkins, FA signing, Haeger

San Diego's team is obviously weakest, but they're the weakest to begin with, and at least their payroll will be drastically reduced and they are young.

Any thoughts/comments would be appreciated.  But I really think involving the Twins in the Peavy trade process could end up benefitting all 3 teams with what they are looking for most.

OK, so tacking onto my last diary, I thought I'd take a look at our salaries going forward the next 2 years.  Not sure if it's been covered or not, so I hope I'm not duplicating efforts.  Implicit in this projection are my ideas in the previous diary, Mark Ellis, Adrian Beltre, and necessary extensions for the team.  I see payroll going up a lot next year if need be.  Our payroll was roughly $72 Million in 2006, and is only $57 Million this year.  And new stadium revenues will begin to kick in in 2009 from season tickets, etc.  I see our 2009 payroll (if need be) being at LEAST $80 Million, and jumping all the way up to (again, if need be) closer to $100 Million in 2010.  But judging by this, even with VERY conservative estimates, a couple of signings/expensive trades, and even a couple of "early" extensions to insure we keep the core of the team together, we're in great shape the next 2 years if those numbers are right.  We'll see.  Anyway, have at it.  This is meant to be a general help to us looking forward, and you all know I love doing this; just about my favorite part of baseball. 

2009:
Lineup:
C: Mauer; $13.5 Million (extension bonus/salary)
1b: Morneau; $10.6 Million
2b: Ellis; $6 Million (FA contract estimate; 2-3 year deal)
SS: Casilla; $450K
3b: Beltre; $12 Million  (Young traded)
RF: Cuddyer; $6.75 Million
CF: Gomez; $450K
LF: Span; $450K
DH: Kubel; $4 Million (arbitration/extension estimate)
Bench:
Redmond: $1 Million
Pridie: $400K
Tolbert: $400K
Harris: $450K
Ruiz: $400K
(Sunk cost; Lamb: $3 Million)
TOTAL OFFENSE: $59.85 Million
Rotation:
Liriano; $2Million (extension bonus/salary)
Baker: $2 Million (extension bonus/salary)
Slowey: $450K
Blackburn: $400K
Humber: $400K (Swarzak in the wings as insurance also)
Bullpen:
Nathan: $11.25 Million
Neshek: $450K
Boof: $450K
Perkins: $450K
Crain: $1.7 Million
Mijares: $400K
Breslow: $400K (Guerrier traded)
TOTAL STAFF: $20.35 Million
TOTAL TEAM SALARY: $80.20 Million
 
2010:
C: Mauer; $14 Million (extension salary)
1b: Morneau; $14 Million
2b: Ellis; $6 Million (FA contract estimate; 2-3 year deal)
SS: Casilla; $1 Million (extension estimate)
3b: Valencia/Hughes; $400K
RF: Cuddyer; $8.5 Million
CF: Gomez; $1 Million (extension estimate)
LF: Span; $450K
DH: Kubel; $7 Million (arbitration/extension estimate)
Bench:
Morales: $400K
Pridie: $450K
Tolbert: $450K
Harris: $450K
Ruiz: $450K
TOTAL OFFENSE: $54.55 Million
Rotation:
Liriano; $4Million (extension bonus/salary)
Baker: $4 Million (extension bonus/salary)
Slowey: $450K
Humber/Swarzak/Blackburn/Manship: $450K
Humber/Swarzak/Blackburn/Manship: $450K
Bullpen:
Nathan: $11.25 Million
Neshek: $1 Million (arbitration/extension estimate)
Boof: $1 Million (arbitration/extension estimate)
Perkins: $450K
Humber/Swarzak/Blackburn/Manship: $450K
Mijares: $450K
Slama: $400K (Crain traded or otherwise gone)
TOTAL STAFF: $24.35 Million
TOTAL TEAM SALARY: $78.9 Million

Hey guys, great to be back here after a long baseball season at AAA.  CMath, Roger, Jesse, and many others; will be good to read your insight again more often.  Always appreciate all your work.  Anyway, I just wanted to look to 2009 for a minute (not giving up on this season yet, just always fun to look).  Personally, I would look at a few things:

1) Trade Delmon Young in a package for Adrian Beltre.  Now this isn't a move I'd "love" to make, but I do think it's not such a bad idea considering the rumblings of the Twins' unhappiness with Young as well as their love for players like Beltre, not to mention the fact that our OF is going to be quite crowded next season.  I would offer something like this:

Beltre plus a MI prospect for Young plus Guerrier.  Our bullpen is going to be decent next year; bear with me.

Beltre does make a hefty $12 Million next year, but he's a RH power bat, he brings a great glove, and he'd be in a contract push.  And we all saw what happened last time that was the case for him.  Plus, he bides the Twins time for one of Valencia/Hughes to step up this year at 3b as a longterm option.  And lastly, he is likely to be a Type A FA after 2009, so the Twins would reap 2 top 40 picks simply by letting him sign elsewhere.  Makes; all the sense in the world to me, as much as I hate to give up on a 22-year old with great talent in Young.  And we do have more stellar OF's on the way in the next few years in Hicks/Revere/Morales, plus a stable of young guys with high ceilings in the majors currently.

2) Sign Mark Ellis.  He's had a really unlucky year but he could capably solve our other INF problem and I expect a bounceback year from him in 2009; most stats would indicate that.  He's a Type B FA, which works, and Dennys Reyes should be a Type B as well that we could easily let walk, negating that anyway.  Plus, Ellis is from the area, and also shouldn't cost much, nor a longterm committment.  I was thinking something in the range of $6 Million per year over 2-3 years.  I think that would get it done.  That drastically improves the INF offense and also makes our overall defense simply nasty.  You'd have the following:

C-Mauer-best in the league
1b-Morneau-top 4 in the league, at worst
2b-Ellis-top 2 in the league
SS-Casilla-top 3 in the league
3b-Beltre-top 3 in the league
RF-Cuddyer (our one bad spot)
CF-Gomez-best in the league
LF-Span-best in the league (should be at least, in LF)

That's ridiculous.

3) Sign longterm contract extensions for Joe Mauer, Francisco Liriano, and Scott Baker.  They are the rest of the core of this franchise, and it's a good time to do it in each of their cases.

Mauer's current contract is up after 2010.  He's the heart of this team and it's MVP in my opinion.  Following the model of Morneau and Cuddyer, give him a bonus this season, and then give him an annual salary in line with Morneau's longterm contract, at around $14 million per year.  I bet he'd go for that.

Liriano, if he has the year I expect in 2009, is going to see his arbitration figure go through the roof.  Let's beat him to the punch in offering him some security this year.  Give him an early bonus and get a 5 year deal done at a relatively bargain rate, taking out a year of FA if possible. 

Baker; ditto from Liriano.  The guy seems to be a horse and doesn't really have an injury history, but really provides a Radke-like presence on the team as a stabilizer.  Let's get it done.

I think these need to be priorities on this team this offseason and I think we can get all 3 done.  If we do, I will be quite happy, and quite happy with the direction of this team.  In my next post, tacking on to this, I'll look at salary going into 2009 and 2010.  I think you'll like what you see, or at least I hope you do.  Did I mention it's great to be back on here?  Go Twins!