SB Nation User Blog: DJSkillz

Jake Peavy; Why the Twins make a good 3rd trade partner

DJSkillz — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 00:45:15 -0000

Well, I think we've all heard that Jake Peavy looks like he is going to be traded. I also think that it is becoming painfully obvious that the Braves are a distinct possibility; in fact, in my opinion, they are his most likely destination. Recent reports have talks heating up. I think the Twins should get in on the action. To me it makes all kinds of sense. The Twins have what both the Padres and the Braves need most; young, athletic, talented outfielders, and young, established pitching. We have all of Kubel/Cuddyer/Gomez/Span/Young. And both Perkins and Blackburn. And both the Padres and Braves have what the Twins need most; young, talented infielders, including 3b. The Padres have an extra 3b in Kouzmanoff and Headley. And the Braves have both an extra 3b in Prado, as well as an extra MI in having Escobar, Kelly Johnson, and Lillibridge. I think the Twins should pounce. And I think a deal should revolve around a package such as this:

Kevin Kouzmanoff/Yunel Escobar/reliever to the Twins
Delmon Young/Jake Peavy to the Braves
Jordan Schaffer/Glen Perkins/Tommy Hanson/Matt Guerrier/2 other prospects to the Padres

Twins give up: Delmon Young, Glen Perkins, Matt Guerrier, a prospect

Twins get: Yunel Escobar, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and a reliever

Braves give up: Yunel Escobar, Jordan Schaffer, Tommy Hanson, another prospect, and a major league reliever

Braves get: Jake Peavy and Delmon Young

Padres give up: Jake Peavy, Kevin Kouzmanoff

Padres get: Jordan Schaffer, Glen Perkins, Tommy Hanson, Matt Guerrier, a prospect from the Twins, and a prospect from the Braves.

Something along those lines would seem to satisfy all parties in my mind.

The teams would end up with (longterm):

Twins:
Span-LF
Escobar-SS
Mauer-C
Morneau-1b
Kouzmanoff-3b
Kubel-DH
Cuddyer-RF
Casilla-2b
Gomez-CF
Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, one of Humber/Mulvey/Swarzak

Braves:
Johnson-2b
Kotchman-1b
Chipper-3b (Prado almost ready)
McCann-C
Young-LF
Francouer-RF (Heyward on the way)
Brandon Jones-CF (Gorkys almost ready)
Lillibridge-SS
Peavy, Jurrjens, Smoltz, Glavine, Reyes/Campillo (with Morton and one of Reyes/Campillo to replace Smoltz/Glavine in 2010)

Padres:
Schaffer-CF
Gerut-RF
Headley-3b
Gonzalez-1b
Hairston-LF
Greene-SS
Antonelli-2b
C-whoever
Young, Hanson, Perkins, FA signing, Haeger

San Diego's team is obviously weakest, but they're the weakest to begin with, and at least their payroll will be drastically reduced and they are young.

Any thoughts/comments would be appreciated. But I really think involving the Twins in the Peavy trade process could end up benefitting all 3 teams with what they are looking for most.

2009 & 2010 Team Salary; A look ahead

DJSkillz — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 06:37:35 -0000

OK, so tacking onto my last diary, I thought I'd take a look at our salaries going forward the next 2 years. Not sure if it's been covered or not, so I hope I'm not duplicating efforts. Implicit in this projection are my ideas in the previous diary, Mark Ellis, Adrian Beltre, and necessary extensions for the team. I see payroll going up a lot next year if need be. Our payroll was roughly $72 Million in 2006, and is only $57 Million this year. And new stadium revenues will begin to kick in in 2009 from season tickets, etc. I see our 2009 payroll (if need be) being at LEAST $80 Million, and jumping all the way up to (again, if need be) closer to $100 Million in 2010. But judging by this, even with VERY conservative estimates, a couple of signings/expensive trades, and even a couple of "early" extensions to insure we keep the core of the team together, we're in great shape the next 2 years if those numbers are right. We'll see. Anyway, have at it. This is meant to be a general help to us looking forward, and you all know I love doing this; just about my favorite part of baseball.

2009:
Lineup:
C: Mauer; $13.5 Million (extension bonus/salary)
1b: Morneau; $10.6 Million
2b: Ellis; $6 Million (FA contract estimate; 2-3 year deal)
SS: Casilla; $450K
3b: Beltre; $12 Million (Young traded)
RF: Cuddyer; $6.75 Million
CF: Gomez; $450K
LF: Span; $450K
DH: Kubel; $4 Million (arbitration/extension estimate)
Bench:
Redmond: $1 Million
Pridie: $400K
Tolbert: $400K
Harris: $450K
Ruiz: $400K
(Sunk cost; Lamb: $3 Million)
TOTAL OFFENSE: $59.85 Million
Rotation:
Liriano; $2Million (extension bonus/salary)
Baker: $2 Million (extension bonus/salary)
Slowey: $450K
Blackburn: $400K
Humber: $400K (Swarzak in the wings as insurance also)
Bullpen:
Nathan: $11.25 Million
Neshek: $450K
Boof: $450K
Perkins: $450K
Crain: $1.7 Million
Mijares: $400K
Breslow: $400K (Guerrier traded)
TOTAL STAFF: $20.35 Million
TOTAL TEAM SALARY: $80.20 Million

2010:
C: Mauer; $14 Million (extension salary)
1b: Morneau; $14 Million
2b: Ellis; $6 Million (FA contract estimate; 2-3 year deal)
SS: Casilla; $1 Million (extension estimate)
3b: Valencia/Hughes; $400K
RF: Cuddyer; $8.5 Million
CF: Gomez; $1 Million (extension estimate)
LF: Span; $450K
DH: Kubel; $7 Million (arbitration/extension estimate)
Bench:
Morales: $400K
Pridie: $450K
Tolbert: $450K
Harris: $450K
Ruiz: $450K
TOTAL OFFENSE: $54.55 Million
Rotation:
Liriano; $4Million (extension bonus/salary)
Baker: $4 Million (extension bonus/salary)
Slowey: $450K
Humber/Swarzak/Blackburn/Manship: $450K
Humber/Swarzak/Blackburn/Manship: $450K
Bullpen:
Nathan: $11.25 Million
Neshek: $1 Million (arbitration/extension estimate)
Boof: $1 Million (arbitration/extension estimate)
Perkins: $450K
Humber/Swarzak/Blackburn/Manship: $450K
Mijares: $450K
Slama: $400K (Crain traded or otherwise gone)
TOTAL STAFF: $24.35 Million
TOTAL TEAM SALARY: $78.9 Million

To-do-list for 2009 offseason

DJSkillz — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 06:22:09 -0000

Hey guys, great to be back here after a long baseball season at AAA. CMath, Roger, Jesse, and many others; will be good to read your insight again more often. Always appreciate all your work. Anyway, I just wanted to look to 2009 for a minute (not giving up on this season yet, just always fun to look). Personally, I would look at a few things:

1) Trade Delmon Young in a package for Adrian Beltre. Now this isn't a move I'd "love" to make, but I do think it's not such a bad idea considering the rumblings of the Twins' unhappiness with Young as well as their love for players like Beltre, not to mention the fact that our OF is going to be quite crowded next season. I would offer something like this:

Beltre plus a MI prospect for Young plus Guerrier. Our bullpen is going to be decent next year; bear with me.

Beltre does make a hefty $12 Million next year, but he's a RH power bat, he brings a great glove, and he'd be in a contract push. And we all saw what happened last time that was the case for him. Plus, he bides the Twins time for one of Valencia/Hughes to step up this year at 3b as a longterm option. And lastly, he is likely to be a Type A FA after 2009, so the Twins would reap 2 top 40 picks simply by letting him sign elsewhere. Makes; all the sense in the world to me, as much as I hate to give up on a 22-year old with great talent in Young. And we do have more stellar OF's on the way in the next few years in Hicks/Revere/Morales, plus a stable of young guys with high ceilings in the majors currently.

2) Sign Mark Ellis. He's had a really unlucky year but he could capably solve our other INF problem and I expect a bounceback year from him in 2009; most stats would indicate that. He's a Type B FA, which works, and Dennys Reyes should be a Type B as well that we could easily let walk, negating that anyway. Plus, Ellis is from the area, and also shouldn't cost much, nor a longterm committment. I was thinking something in the range of $6 Million per year over 2-3 years. I think that would get it done. That drastically improves the INF offense and also makes our overall defense simply nasty. You'd have the following:

C-Mauer-best in the league
1b-Morneau-top 4 in the league, at worst
2b-Ellis-top 2 in the league
SS-Casilla-top 3 in the league
3b-Beltre-top 3 in the league
RF-Cuddyer (our one bad spot)
CF-Gomez-best in the league
LF-Span-best in the league (should be at least, in LF)

That's ridiculous.

3) Sign longterm contract extensions for Joe Mauer, Francisco Liriano, and Scott Baker. They are the rest of the core of this franchise, and it's a good time to do it in each of their cases.

Mauer's current contract is up after 2010. He's the heart of this team and it's MVP in my opinion. Following the model of Morneau and Cuddyer, give him a bonus this season, and then give him an annual salary in line with Morneau's longterm contract, at around $14 million per year. I bet he'd go for that.

Liriano, if he has the year I expect in 2009, is going to see his arbitration figure go through the roof. Let's beat him to the punch in offering him some security this year. Give him an early bonus and get a 5 year deal done at a relatively bargain rate, taking out a year of FA if possible.

Baker; ditto from Liriano. The guy seems to be a horse and doesn't really have an injury history, but really provides a Radke-like presence on the team as a stabilizer. Let's get it done.

I think these need to be priorities on this team this offseason and I think we can get all 3 done. If we do, I will be quite happy, and quite happy with the direction of this team. In my next post, tacking on to this, I'll look at salary going into 2009 and 2010. I think you'll like what you see, or at least I hope you do. Did I mention it's great to be back on here? Go Twins!