Here's the situation. Carlos Marmol relieves Paul Maholm in the bottom of the 8th inning at Busch Stadium with the Cubs leading the Cardinals by three. He promptly walks two batters before giving up a game-tying dinger to Adam Wainwright. He then strikes out the top three in the order to escape with a tie score intact. Clearly another Blown Save to Marmol's credit. But, the Cubs retake the lead in the top of the 9th, putting Marmol on the line for the Win in a scenario that is all too common but makes infuriatingly little intuitive sense. Rafael Dolis induces three weak ground balls and the Cubs win. Dolis gets the Save. Marmol gets the unofficial blown save and the Win . . . except, not according to the rules . . . .

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Big day in AA.

AAA - Brad Peacock, Christian Friedrich, Alex Cobb

AA - Zack Wheeler, John Hellweg v Jake Odorizzi, Sonny Gray, Danny Hultzen, Jose Cisnero v Barret Loux, Trevor Rosenthal

A Adv - Asher Wojciechowski, Jameson Taillon v Chad James

A - Matt Barnes, Justin Nicolino, Nicholas Tropeano, Raul Alcantara

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Below are MLB leaders in BABIP over the last few years.  Jeter appears near the top of the list every year, and Ichiro is never far from the top, either.  But other than that, there appears to be a decent amount of turnover at the top from year to year.  In 2003, for example, the top 10 were: Jeter, Helton, Marlon Byrd, Podsednik, Koskie, Grudzielanek, Jacque Jones, Bill Mueller, Abreu, and Wilkerson.

It does not appear to be a common event for a hitter to have a BABIP of over .390 in consecutive years, considering that in most years, either one or zero players have achieved that number.  Granting that it is still somewhat early, B.J. upton does not appear to have fallen off in terms of BABIP as most of us assumed he would.

Anyone have any thoughts on what it is about his approach, or Jeter's for that matter, that makes such excessively high BABIPs sustainable?  LD% does not seem to be the determining factor for these two, at least.  This year, Upton ranks at #108 with an LD% of 18.2% and Jeter is at #152 with 15.8%.  Last year, they were both a bit better: Upton's 19.6% put him at #57 and Jeter's 19.9% placed him at #49.  But this is not really satisfying me.

Is Bossman still due for a dropoff?  Or is there something in his approach or skill set that has allowed him to maintain his ridiculously high BABIP for 1 1/3 seasons?

P.S. Another interesting tidbit.  Chipper Jones is batting .418 with a .422 BABIP.  I don't think anyone has ever finished a season with an actual BA that close to his BABIP.  Anyone want to figure out what the record is?

I was aimlessly searching players on Baseball Reference and watching a game when the announcers mentioned Kevin Mitchell.  This prompted me to look up Keith Mitchell.  I was amused to find he played parts of four seasons in the majors, on four different teams, and never in two consecutive seasons ('91 Atlanta, '94 Seattle, '96 Cincinnati, '98 Boston.)  His prolific career spanned all of 128 games.

So, for anyone with a better knowledge of baseball stat-finding than me: Has anyone ever played fewer games for more teams in a major league career?

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2008/3/23/16447/2153

According to R.J. Anderson's reasoning, Derrick Turnbow has had two of the three unluckiest seasons of any pitcher since 2004.  He concludes that Turnbow is, for whatever reason, significantly worse when there are runners on base.

I'm going to flash my ignorance here.  Does Turnbow use a full windup with the bases empty?  I guess nearly everyone does, except for a very few relievers.  If he does, there could be a mechanical flaw when he pitches from the stretch.  

Either way, it doesn't seem like "clutch pitching" is quite the same as clutch hitting since there are soooooo many other factors that come into play when runners are on than just nerves or strength of character or whatever... holding the runner, different motion, different pitch selection, different strategy (pitching to a groundball vs. a strikeout), etc.

http://blogs.jsonline.com/brewers/archive/2008/03/25/brewers-release-vargas.asp

A bit of a surprising move today by the Brewers, as they release Claudio Vargas, even with Capuano going down for the year.  So what do you all think of Villanueva?  He will be 24 for the whole season after floating around in the minors for the better part of five years.  Really, he has seen nothing but success in the majors with decent K/BB (138/64), 117 ERA+, 1.238 WHIP in 168 innings.  Of course, this includes only 12 starts, and a whole lot of relief innings.

What kind of year can we expect from Villanueva in his first year as a full-time member of the rotation?  Ceiling?

Updated title: Vargas out, Villanueva in: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying About Anyone Else and Love the Mythical Beast

Does anybody know what kind of options Evans has left.  I would love to see this guy get a chance to play regularly in the majors, but I don't see it happening anytime soon in Anaheim.

He seems like an ideal trade commodity.  What is his ceiling if he gets a chance to start?

With limited research, I see AT LEAST a Scott Hairston-type player with more speed with the potential to be MUCH better.  I think he could outperform Juan Rivera in LA right now.  And for me, that is saying something, because I like Juan Rivera and think he probably deserves to be starting.

I'd love to hear what others think about him though.

Here are two guys with all the stuff to succeed but lacking results.  In my mind, they are quite similar as well (possibly with the exception of attitude).  Their progressions resemble one another, though Olsen's WHIP exploded last year amidst personal and legal troubles and Bonderman's K/BB has been better than Olsen's so far in the majors.

What are the outlooks for these two?  What adjustments might they make that could help them harness their above average stuff?  What are your predictions for either of them becoming a solid #2 or better?  Or what are their ceilings at this point?

In my dynasty H2H league, I usually send out some off-season trades in jest such as Joba, Ian Kennedy, and Damon for Johan with comments like, "If only the Twins could get so much from the Yankees..."

Well, one of my joke trades was Damon for Jason Bay, citing Damon's better 3-year averages.  The offer was returned with a supposedly joke offer of Bay for Hafner. But I'm wondering if this is really a joke.

Here's some background. SBs are 1 pt, HRs are 4 + 1 rbi + 1 r, for 6 pts total.  Position eligibility is easy in our league -- 5 games in the previous or current season -- so Hafner is easily eligible at 1B.  In my lineup as of now are:

1B - Ortiz (Hafner, Damon)
OF - Sizemore, Ichiro, Sheffield (Damon, Bruce; also Juan Rivera, Stephen Pearce, who may be dropped for the draft)
DH - Hafner

The obvious reasons for turning this down are that  two of my current infielders (Upton and Braun) may never play infield again, and then I will just have too many OFs.

But purely for this year, is it unreasonable to think Bay might out-perform Hafner in 2008?  What about over the next few years?

I was just browsing through some player notes and noticed something I hadn't seen before.  CBS Sports was reporting that Ian Stewart may be moved to 2B over the winter.

Are the any Rockies fans out there (or anyone else) who have heard about this possible position switch?  Any ideas if he could make the switch successfully?

Rob Neyer calls out Michael Hunt today for publishing some blatantly incorrect facts as well as other merely misleading facts.

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=neyer_rob

But more importantly, he claims there may be hope for Brewers pitching.  It's sort of refreshing to tune in to a national media member who doesn't blatantly talk about not wanting the Brewers to get into the playoffs because Chicago "just seems so alive when the Cubs are doing well."  I have to go puke...

I've never compiled a top ten list before, but here goes.  As of August 7, I see the Brewers Top 10 Prospects as follows:

     1.  Parra, Manny LHP (24, MLB) -- Minors (AA, AAA): 106.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 106 K, 33 BB, .220 BAA;  Majors: 2.87 ERA, 15.2 IP, 15 K, 5 BB, .237 BAA
     2.  Jeffress, Jeremy RHP (19, A, SAL) -- 67 IP, 3.49 ERA, 67 K, 34 BB, .218 BAA
     3.  LaPorta, Matt 1B/LF (22, R, PIO) -- .259/.286/.519, 2 HR, 1/8 BB/K, 0/0 SB/CS through 7 pro games
     4.  Gamel, Mat OF (22, A+, FSL) -- .309/.387/.480, 7 HR, 49/76 BB/K, 13/7 SB/CS, 3 HRs in 5 August games, no more home/road split
     5.  Salome, Angel C (21, A+, FSL) -- .318/.341/.465, 6 HR, 12/32 BB/K, 1/0 SB/CS
     6.  Crabbe, Callix 2B/SS (24, AAA, PCL) -- .290/.376/.418, 6 HR, 51/52 BB/K, 15/11 SB/CS, switch-hitting utility infielder
     7.  Green, Taylor 3B (20, A, SAL) -- .311/.390/.500, 12 HR, 39/57 BB/K, 0/5 SB/CS, lefty 3BSAL all-star
     8.  Brantley, Michael  (20, AA, SOU) -- .257/.372/.299, 0 HR, 26/20 BB/K, 14/3 SB/CS; (A, SAL) -- .335/.413/.440, 2 HR, 31/22 BB/K, 18/6 SB/CS
     9.  Gindl, Caleb OF (18, R, PIO) -- .425/.457/.669, 4 HR, 9/24 BB/K, 3/3 SB/CS, lefty OF in 127 at-bats of Rookie ball
     10. Braddock, Zach LHB (19, A, SAL) -- 47 IP, 1.15 ERA, 68 K, 15 BB, .168 BAA, on the shelf since June 15 - unsure about return date, wild-card pick as an 18th rounder out of high school and signed as a draft-and-follow

Honorable Mentions:

     Steve Bray
     Seth McClung
     Brent Brewer
     Hernan Iribarren
     Vinny Rottino

Who doesn't love a misleading diary title?

I just figured it was worth mentioning that Matt LaPorta has played his first two Pioneer League games and hit a HR in his first on July 30.

Sample size be damned.  I think we have a star on our hands.  Hopefully, though, he will not keep up his 3 strikeouts every 7 at-bats pace.

There have been a lot of posts in recent weeks regarding the significance of the age of a prospect at a given level.  From what I recall, the general consensus was that a 23-year-old putting up good stats at AAA could certainly be considered a top prospect.

Jay Bruce is now tearing up AAA pitching at the ripe old age of 20.  Of course, this only started after an adjustment period of about 5 ABs.

This year:
A+ (268 ABs):    .325/.379/.586
AA (66 ABs):     .333/.405/.652
AAA (70 ABs):    .286/.367/.557

Are there any recent examples of a player of his age moving up, adjusting, and then dominating so quickly at each level?  (Pardon my relative newb'ness to prospecting.)  Any estimates for his MLB arrival time?  It seems likely to me that he will be given a shot at starting by June 1 next year, possibly before.  Will he get a cup of coffee in September? August?  Is there any reason to hold him back given his track record?

I need some input from knowledgeable folks.  Help me out.

I recently mentioned a trade rumor on a Rockies blog  consisting of Holliday for Capuano, Bush, and Mench.  Admittedly, the probability of such a trade occurring is next to nil, but let's ignore that for a moment.

On Brew Crew Ball, bloggers had mixed opinions, though the clear majority was against such a trade for the Brewers.  It would decimate the rotation, especially with Sheets' health questionable.  There was also concern that Holliday's numbers would be slightly tamed without the benefit of Coors Field.

I brought up the trade on Purple Row, where Rockies bloggers quickly ripped apart as totally ridiculous.

One fan pointed out that the TRULY ridiculous part was that Brewers fans thought THEY were getting the short end of the stick.  This drove me to point out that Holliday doesn't look ANY better than Corey Hart away from Coors. I was then told that "Holliday is a different class of hitter than Hart."  So I posted a comparison of similar stages in their careers so far, hoping to get some feedback on where the drastic difference lies.

Hart MiLB Totals:  .299/.356/.498  28 AB/HR  212/497 BB/K  131 SB
Holliday MiLB Totals:  .275/.352/.424  36 AB/HR  260/438 BB/K  68 SB

Hart '06: .283/.328/.468  26 AB/HR  17/58  BB/K  5 SB
Holliday '04: .290/.349/.488  29 AB/HR  31/86 BB/K  3 SB

Hart '07: .299/.367/.523  20 AB/HR  24/48 BB/K  16 SB
Holliday '05: .307/.361/.505  25 AB/HR  36/79 BB/K  14 SB

Neither was an uber-prospect, but both have put up solid numbers at nearly every stage, and both have shown steady improvement at each level.

My question: Is this a totally unreasonable comparison?  And if so, what am I missing that makes Holliday more complete or gives him a higher ceiling than Hart?

Hello Purple Row.  I am a Brew Crew Ball reader on a stroll through SB Nation.  There was a trade rumor mentioned on our end that I wanted to get your feedback on.

The rumor, based on perhaps highly questionable sources, involved the Crew sending Chris Capuano, Dave Bush, and Kevin Mench to the Rockies for Matt Holliday.

The consensus, though not strong, was that this would be too much to give up for someone who is rather unspectacular away from Coors Field.  A few people thought we should take the risk to shore up the middle of our order.

I'm interested to hear how this trade would be received on your end.

Thanks for the input, and good luck the rest of the way, as long as you don't run up against the Brewers again.

John described Johnny Cueto as an "overlooked prospect with a live arm" during the off-season.  It appears he has pitched in AAA for one start, advanced A for 14 very successful starts, and now has two outstanding AA starts under his belt at Chattanooga so far this year.  Has anyone seen him?  Or if not, does anyone know his background/command/plus-pitches?  At 21, this kid looks like quite a prospect, based solely on his stat page.

Ok.  Someone help me out.  What is going on with Scott Olsen?  In a diary a couple months ago, people wrote about Olsen as though he was, say, the next Bonderman.  I think he will turn it around, based on his success at every level against older competition. But what is he doing differently right now?

Does anyone think he will NOT turn it around?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5917

Dan Fox did an article for BP Unfiltered looking at the most "clutch" performers for 2006.  When "clutchness" was normalized for a full season of 650 ABs, guess who came out on top?  Just ahead of Albert Pujols and David Ortiz?  You guessed it -- our very own Geoff Jenkins.  And for an even tougher question: Guess who came #4?  Just behind Jenkins, Pujols and Ortiz?
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OK... Give up?
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Our very own Gabe Gross.

File this under prospect busts younger than 24, along with Andy Marte.  Is Edwin a starter this year?  A reliever?  Or is he done?  He is out of options and I have to believe someone would be willing to give him a shot if the Rays give up on him.

So what about Niemann?  He seems much less highly touted than the other top BA prospects.  Is this an effect of being a Devil Ray pitcher?  What do people see for these two this year and in the future?

Somebody tell me what his deal is.  He appears to have progressed nicely (if a bit slowly) through the minors and looks like he could be a solid OBP guy with decent pop.  He mashes righties and is more than solid against lefties.

In my opinion, he is a vastly favorable option to Prado at 2B and could fairly handily outperform Marcus Giles as well.

So, on his 25th birthday, what is his prospect status?  What sort of ceiling can we expect?  And what is his injury situation?  Have his injuries been things he can get past or is that what's holding him down?

What is his deal?  He seems to have been a pretty highly regarded prospect a couple years back.  Any Rockies fans or others know what his scenarios for playing time are?  Platoon with Hawpe?  Platoon with Helton??  Hahaha.  Maybe not.

Has there ever been any talk of 2B?  He is big, but not absurdly so.  He is in the range of Cantu, Kent, Kelly Johnson, and Utley as far as body type.  This seems like the only spot where he could earn significant ABs.  But I don't know anything about his fielding/range.

I'm guessing he is not quick enough laterally to handle 2B.  If that's true, how many ABs do people expect him to get?

Thanks for the help.

I need some advice.  I am coming off a championship in my H2H points dynasty league and am always looking to improve.  I have been offered Daisuke and Olsen for Smoltz and Bush.  I would not consider this in a yearly league, as Smoltz was the #2 SP last year and Bush was top 25.

I am very strong in pitching with Sheets, Webb, Harang, Lackey, C. Young, and Clemens, and I would love to trade Smoltz for value before he suffers an injury.  Is this a worthwhile trade?