Dan Turkenkopf
Mar 28, 2008 Dec 19, 2009 106 532
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Should the Yankees have offered Johnny Damon arbitration?
by Dan Turkenkopf on Dec 2, 2009 8:00 AM EST
1 comment
Yesterday the Yankees decided to cut ties with free agent LF Johnny Damon by not offering him arbitration.
The general feeling is that the team was worried he might accept and earn around a one year / $15 million deal in arbitration.
Was it a good move for the team to forego the possibility of draft picks and let Damon walk for nothing?
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BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of August 14, 2009
by Dan Turkenkopf on Aug 14, 2009 5:37 PM EDT
3 comments
The dog days of summer are upon us, at least here on the East Coast. And no teams have been more affected than the Red Sox and the Rays. Their recent poor performance (along with the Yankees winning streak) has both teams thinking about the Rangers and Wild Card more than the division.
Speaking of the Rangers, they continue to hang around in the AL West, but the Angels just aren't giving them the opportunity to gain any ground. If the Rangers do make the playoffs, Neftali Feliz has the opportunity to replicate Francisco Rodriguez's magical rookie postseason. Seattle had a nice rebuilding season, but they're likely still a year or two away.
Staying out west, the Dodgers must be making their fans nervous. Their once insurmountable lead has dropped to something much more manageable. To be fair, the Dodgers are still playing well, but the Rockies have turned up their game.
Just when it looks like Philadelphia is going to run away with the division, Atlanta and Florida climb back into the picture. The Nationals are going on a little bit of a run, which may actually move them out of the number one slot in next years draft. Kansas City is the latest contender to challenge Washington for the crown.
The Cardinals look to have fought off a charge from the Cubs over the past month to remain solidly in first place in the NL Central. It looks like it's a two team race, as the division falls nicely into three distinct strata.
Finally, the AL Central is giving us what might be the closest race of the season. The White Sox and Tigers remained knotted atop the division, although neither would be projected to finish higher than third in any other division besides the NL Central (and only tied for second there). It will be interesting to see if one of the two pulls away - especially after Chicago's big acquisitions.
On a personal note, the Poor Man's Projected Season Standings will be taking a break for at least a week and perhaps more as my wife and I are expecting twins next Tuesday.
Full standings after the jump...
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BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of August 7, 2009
by Dan Turkenkopf on Aug 7, 2009 3:00 PM EDT
9 comments
It's the first week in August and we're finally starting to see some separation in most of the divisions.
The AL East still has a chance for a three team race for two spots, although the Rays continue to underperform their rankings.
The White Sox and the Tigers are projected to battle down to the wire, while the Twins hang around just behind, and the Royals flirt with 100 losses.
The Angels appear to have sealed up the AL West, despite an impressive effort from Texas.
Ditto for Philly and Atlanta. The Marlins have stayed close record-wise, but they're definitely winning more than would be expected from their component stats.
While the NL Central has been a mishmash of four to six teams for most of the season, it's now looking like a mishmash of two teams - the Cardinals and the Cubs.
The Dodgers show no sign of relinquishing the NL West and the Rockies look to have a leg up on the Giants for the Wild Card. The Diamondbacks continue to confound; playing at a well above .500 level, but with a record 10 games below. What goes around, comes around, I suppose.
Full standings after the jump...
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The Baseball Analysts: Measuring a Pitcher's Ability to Locate a Pitch
Dave Allen looks at how well Mariano hits his spots.
His analysis is based on assumed intended locations (the edges of the strike zones early in the at-bat), but it's still very interesting stuff.
4 months ago
Dan Turkenkopf
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BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of July 31, 2009
by Dan Turkenkopf on Jul 31, 2009 3:00 PM EDT
2 comments
Perhaps the second best day is upon us. Trade Deadline Day is probably the Thanksgiving (where we fill up on rumors and deals until we fall asleep at 5 pm) to Opening Day's Christmas (replace with appropriate holidays for your nationality and beliefs).
While fun, all the movement throws these projections into havoc. Please keep in mind that none of the trades are reflected here at all.
To continue the somewhat tortured holiday metaphor (and even mix it somewhat), Justin is the ghost of performance past. Nick is the ghost of performance future. And that makes me the ghost of the performance sorta kinda present but not really because it's only partially based in reality. Anyway, moving on...
The AL Central tightened up quite a bit this week. At this point it's anybody's game. Well anybody on the White Sox, Tigers or Twins. The Indians and Royals can rest up for next season.
In the NL Central the Cubs continue their resurgence in both the regular standings and the projected ones - jumping into a tie with St. Louis in both. Milwaukee has fallen off the pace some and is fighting with Houston for the "we're not far enough out of it to give up, but we probably aren't really going anywhere" prize. Forget I said all that if one of them lands Halladay though.
The AL East is still the big man on campus, although Tampa Bay has fallen out the three spot in the end of the season standings. They're still in a tight race for the wild card with whoever doesn't win the division out of the Yankees and the Red Sox, with Texas sitting in the background biding their time.
The Mets halted their free fall this week, gaining three games. Which was just enough to keep them solidly in fourth place in the NL East. But I'm not sure anyone notices that they're still playing games there.
The Giants have played well above their deserved record to this point. If they can continue to do so, it will be quite a battle with Colorado for the NL Wild Card. San Diego actually improved a game this week, but because Washington improved by three, there's actually some competition for the first pick next season.
Full standings after the jump...
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A Phillie Phleecing? Is Halladay Worth It?
by Dan Turkenkopf on Jul 25, 2009 9:35 PM EDT
39 comments
he hot rumor over the past few days has been Roy Halladay heading to the Phillies for a package containing pitchers J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek and outfielder Dominic Brown.
At least that was Ricciardi's request. The Phillies are said to prefer to keep Drabek and include Carlos Carrasco. As of midday Saturday, it's unclear where things will go from here.
Do either of these deals make sense for Philly? Let's use Sky's trade value calculator and find out.
Update: I missed Dominic Brown's rise up the prospect lists and that changes things quite a bit.
39 comments | 0 recs |
BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of July 24, 2009
by Dan Turkenkopf on Jul 24, 2009 3:00 PM EDT
2 comments
We're back after a week off. Unlike Justin, I didn't get to go anywhere. So I'm much less tan and much more disgruntled.
It's been a interesting couple of weeks. Despite quite a few teams making major moves, the divisional picture hasn't changed all that much.
The Phillies gained another five games in the win column, pushing their projected record to 92-70. But their lead over Atlanta stayed constant at seven games. The Braves vaulted themselves into the wild card race with their performance and find themselves just four games behind the Rockies.
I didn't think it was possible, but the Mets lost another four games and now project to win only 74 games for the season. Washington dropped even further as well, but that just solidifies their hold on Bryce Harper.
In the AL West the Angels have opened up a four game lead over Texas. And with Arte Moreno thinking ace pitcher, it's likely that gap will continue to widen. Seattle's had a nice run to push over .500 in the projected standings. Overall, the four AL West teams gained 11 games in the standings in the past two weeks - by far the biggest positive change in baseball.
The AL East shows little signs of loosening up. Despite winning seven in a row in real life, the Yankees' projection remains unchanged at 97 wins. Boston fell a few games off the pace and into a very tight wild card race with the Rays, but this one remains way too close to be definitive about. Next week could very well jumble the teams into a completely different order.
There's not a whole lot to say about the NL West except that the Dodgers and Rockies are really good. San Francisco's meteoric climb was halted over the past few weeks, leaving them nine back of the Rockies for the wild card. According to Justin, San Diego has been by far the worst team in the majors this season, but all they'll win for their prize is the second pick in the draft. They probably wouldn't have had the money to sign Harper anyway and we wouldn't want to see another Matt Bush situation, right?
I've left the Central divisons for last and for good reason. Out of the 11 teams across both leagues, only the White Sox project for more than 85 wins. It's a three team race in the AL with Chicago holding the lead and the momentum (for what it's worth).
The NL Central is simply indecipherable. Four teams have a real chance to win the division. None of them appear to be very good, but the playoff berth is pretty much up for grabs. It's even tighter in real life, where even the Reds and Pirates are a hot streak away from thinking they're in contention.
Full standings after the jump...
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Too many anecdotes, not enough data
The plural of anecdote is not data
Not the least bit about baseball, but very applicable to sabermetrics and sportswriters.
Believing something doesn't make it true, nor does hearing a couple fans complaining about something on the local talk radio.
5 months ago
Dan Turkenkopf
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Graph of the Day: Notable Mid-season Deals
by Dan Turkenkopf on Jul 20, 2009 12:00 PM EDT
16 comments
With the trading season upon us again, today's Graph of the Day looks at some of the more memorable mid-season deals.
The graphs shows the player's worth by WAR for the acquiring team in the season he was traded. These are not apples to apples comparisons because not all were traded at the same point in the season, but it's close enough.
Some of the trades are notable for how well they worked while others are remembered for the players moving the other direction.
WAR data courtesy of Sean Smith's Historical WAR database at www.baseballprojection.com
16 comments | 0 recs |
Rummaging Through the Archives: Jeremy Bonderman and 200 Wins
by Dan Turkenkopf on Jul 20, 2009 7:48 AM EDT
4 comments
Today's edition takes us back to May 7, 2005 and Dan Scotto's article on the Tigers' ace of the future Jeremy Bonderman.
Scotto looks at how Bonderman's career trajectory might have been altered by his place on the historically bad 2003 Tigers team. At an age when most pitchers would be honing their craft in the minors, Bonderman was the #2 pitcher for a team that lost 119 games.
He showed some flashes of brilliance but, not surprisingly, didn't set the world on fire (4.79 FIP, 6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9). Putting up those numbers in the majors as a 20 year old did suggest he could be a special pitcher though.
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