So it's a little late, but loyal reader Patrick42 wants an open thread:

This is off topic

But I feel distinctly the lack of an open thread. I wish to chatter inanely about Stephen Strasburg, but I can’t do it here! :(

Feel free to bask in the awesomeness of Strasburg and Mike Stanton (oh and Delmon Young Delwyn Young (oops) I suppose).

I was originally going to title this article "Is Everything We Know About the Strike Zone a Lie?"  I figured that was a nice juicy headline to draw in traffic and generate controversy.  But then I re-looked at the numbers, got a whole lot more confused about what they mean and decided to scale back my Drudginess.

One the major assumptions we make about the Pitch F/X dataset is that we have a pretty good idea of what the strike zone is.  It's been studied a bunch of times, starting with John Walsh, and continuing with our own Jeff Zimmerman, each time refining the answer a bit.  But we assume that the strike zone we use is consistent across the entire data set.  Yes, we realize that the top and bottom of the strike zone vary from at-bat to at-bat, so in general we use the median value for each batter.  And we know that the boundaries of the strike zone are somewhat flexible.  Walsh determined his strike zone at point where 50% of the pitches are called strikes.  Jeff used 85% strikes as his boundary value.  And of course the zones differ according to batter handedness.  But we've assumed that the strike zone is relatively consistent from park to park.  That assumption appears to be pretty far from the truth.

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You know the hot/cold zones that you sometimes see on MLB broadcasts?  The ones that say that Albert Pujols hit .393 and slugged .883 on pitches down the middle in 2009?  Ever wanted to see them for every batter and every pitcher at any time? Craig Glaser over at Sabometrics recently released a great little app for the IPhone/IPod Touch that does just that.

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Some form of Win Probability analysis is probably the most common way for a sabermetrician to measure a reliever's performance.  Whether the stat be simple Win Probability Added, or the more complex WXRL, determining the change in game state seems to be the jumping off point.

One of the flaws of using Win Probability is that all the credit / debit for a given play is traditionally given to the pitcher, rather than the defense.  We know from DIPS theory that this isn't the proper approach.  I'm not going to explain DIPS here (most of you already understand it), but the key point is that most major league pitchers have little impact on whether a ball in play is converted into an out.  Further studies have shown that pitchers do have some influence on the conversion rate depending on the batted ball type - whether the ball is a grounder, fly ball or line drive. Stats like tRA, LIPS and SIERA use the knowledge of batted ball types allowed by a given pitcher to estimate his "true" value. 

But these stats don't account for game state or the timing of events, which are the key driver behind win probability analysis, and, as mentioned above, the predominant method for evaluating relievers.  They are also based around likely outcomes, rather than the actual outcomes which form the basis for win probability. So how do we marry the two approaches?  Is there a way to get the benefits of win probability and defense independence?

I have an idea for an answer.  I don't know how correct it is, but since it involves a lot of heavy lifting, and my new motto is "Work smarter, not harder," I thought I'd write up this thought experiment to get some feedback before trying it out.

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It's another one of those baseball saws.  A wrist injury saps a batter's power and can continue to do so during a long recovery period. Spurred on by a question from Jeff Zimmerman, I decided to take a quick look into the truth of the matter.

I'll preface this article by saying my methodology was quick and dirty at best, and should by no means be taken as the final answer to the question.

Using Josh Hermsmeyer's wonderful injury database, I found all the batters with wrist injuries between 2002 and 2008.  For each, I calculated their projected isolated power (SLG - BA) upon return using Marcel projections.  As a simplification, if a player returned from their injury before July 1st, I used that year's projection.  If he returned after July 1st, I looked at the next season.  Finally, I compared the batter's actual ISO to the projected ISO to determine whether he was hitting with less power than expected.

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On Monday, John Sickels ignited a mini firestorm in the sabermetric community by admitting he's becoming somewhat overwhelmed and tired with the recent advances in sabermetrics.  He still enjoys baseball, but he's beginning to question the relevance of increasing the complexity of our measures for small gains in accuracy.  I'm paraphrasing here, but I don't think I'm too far off from what John is trying to say. 

There have been numerous well-written responses, ranging from Dan Novick and Pat Andriola at The Hardball Times, to Tango over at The Book Blog.  Most seem to grant John's point that at least some of sabermetric study is becoming extremely specialized, and go on to point out how the field in general is becoming more accessible to the average person.

This is my foray into the discussion.  I don't know if I have anything interesting to add, but since it's a topic that's been kicking around my head for a while, you get to hear from me whether you like it or not.

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The other day on Twitter, Sky, and I were discussing how to value relievers.  The conversation was triggered by a comment from Colin Wyers where he said an average reliever would successfully complete 82% of all save situations a closer finds himself in.  Sky then used Mariano Rivera's save percentage since 2007 to do a quick and dirty WAA calculation.

Somehow that led into how we'd measure reliever success using Win Probability while still keeping in mind bullpen chaining. I tossed out the idea of WPA / Leverage Index for each plate appearance times the chained leverage index value for when the pitcher entered the game.  Sky suggested that we should readjust the chained leverage index for each inning.

All this rehash of our Tweeting leads up to my introduction of ARJS - Another Reliever Junk Stat.  I don't know if it has any meaning beyond WAR or WPA but I told Sky I'd run the numbers. 

I'm looking for you guys to tell me whether this is stupid or if you think it has merit.  Results and the formula after the jump.

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Now that we finally have 3 years of reliable Pitch F/X data, I can attempt something I've wanted to do since I first figured Catcher Block Percentage back in 2008 - projections for the next season.

I'm using a basic Marcel approach to estimate how many runs a given catcher will save in 2010 based on his performance in 2007-2009.  I'm not going to outline all the details here, but if anyone is interested, I can add them later.

After the jump we'll get into the full set of results, but I'll share some observations first.

Jason Varitek is projected to 5.6 runs per 120 games, by far the best in the league.  That can do a lot to compensate for an offensive decline.  His counterpart on the Red Sox last season, George Kotteras projects to be the worst, but that's mainly because he was Tim Wakefield's personal catcher.

Jason Kendall is indeed a 6 run improvement over Miguel Olivo in a full season.  Depending on Olivo returning to his offensive form, maybe the tradeoff wasn't so bad for the Royals.

The Yankees have a lot of trouble blocking pitches, and it's not all A.J. Burnett's fault.  Both Jorge Posada and Jose Molina struggled before Burnett joined the team.

Kurt Suzuki is quietly turning into quite a player.  Besides being a roughly average offensive player at a premium defensive position, he appears to be a very strong defender. Sure most of his value is by being a catcher, but when teams are running Pudge Rodriguez and Omir Santos out there on a regular basis, Suzuki is quite valuable.

Fact: Matt Wieters doesn't block pitches.  They are drawn to his glove through the power of awesomeness.

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Baseball can be split into two major areas: offense and defense.  And defense is split into pitching and fielding.  We've had a good idea of what makes a good batter or a good pitcher for a while now.

But when we say a player is good fielder what exactly do we mean?  What are the different skills that we're trying to measure?

Well, it's going to vary by position of course.  A shortstop needs a stronger arm than a second baseman, unless the shortstop is David Eckstein. But in general, we can probably break fielding down into the following skills:

• Positioning
  
• Range
• Hands
• Arm

Some of these can be expanded even more, but these four items make a pretty good starting point. Let's look a little deeper at each one.

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It's that time of year again.  I've finally gotten around to running the 2009 Catcher Block Percentage rankings.   As annual traditions go, it isn't up there with Thanksgiving, Christmas, or the Running of the Bulls, but hopefully you still enjoy it.

For those who aren't familiar with the stat, I look at how well a catcher stops runners from moving up on balls in the dirt.   Each wild pitch or passed ball saved is worth .27 runs (based on run expectancy and the timing of the events). Full methodology is described here.

This year I've made a few adjustments.  First, I've included 2 strike balls in the dirt with first base open as opportunities.  That was an oversight from previous years.  Second, I'm using a bit more Pitch F/X information in the analysis.

Results and more details can be found after the jump.

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Yesterday the Yankees decided to cut ties with free agent LF Johnny Damon by not offering him arbitration.

The general feeling is that the team was worried he might accept and earn around a one year / $15 million deal in arbitration.

Was it a good move for the team to forego the possibility of draft picks and let Damon walk for nothing?

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The dog days of summer are upon us, at least here on the East Coast.  And no teams have been more affected than the Red Sox and the Rays.  Their recent poor performance (along with the Yankees winning streak) has both teams thinking about the Rangers and Wild Card more than the division.

Speaking of the Rangers, they continue to hang around in the AL West, but the Angels just aren't giving them the opportunity to gain any ground.  If the Rangers do make the playoffs, Neftali Feliz has the opportunity to replicate Francisco Rodriguez's magical rookie postseason.  Seattle had a nice rebuilding season, but they're likely still a year or two away.

Staying out west, the Dodgers must be making their fans nervous.  Their once insurmountable lead has dropped to something much more manageable.  To be fair, the Dodgers are still playing well, but the Rockies have turned up their game.

Just when it looks like Philadelphia is going to run away with the division, Atlanta and Florida climb back into the picture.  The Nationals are going on a little bit of a run, which may actually move them out of the number one slot in next years draft.  Kansas City is the latest contender to challenge Washington for the crown.

The Cardinals look to have fought off a charge from the Cubs over the past month to remain solidly in first place in the NL Central.  It looks like it's a two team race, as the division falls nicely into three distinct strata.

Finally, the AL Central is giving us what might be the closest race of the season.  The White Sox and Tigers remained knotted atop the division, although neither would be projected to finish higher than third in any other division besides the NL Central (and only tied for second there).  It will be interesting to see if one of the two pulls away - especially after Chicago's big acquisitions.

On a personal note, the Poor Man's Projected Season Standings will be taking a break for at least a week and perhaps more as my wife and I are expecting twins next Tuesday.

Full standings after the jump...

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It's the first week in August and we're finally starting to see some separation in most of the divisions. 

The AL East still has a chance for a three team race for two spots, although the Rays continue to underperform their rankings.

The White Sox and the Tigers are projected to battle down to the wire, while the Twins hang around just behind, and the Royals flirt with 100 losses.

The Angels appear to have sealed up the AL West, despite an impressive effort from Texas.

Ditto for Philly and Atlanta.  The Marlins have stayed close record-wise, but they're definitely winning more than would be expected from their component stats. 

While the NL Central has been a mishmash of four to six teams for most of the season, it's now looking like a mishmash of two teams - the Cardinals and the Cubs.

The Dodgers show no sign of relinquishing the NL West and the Rockies look to have a leg up on the Giants for the Wild Card.  The Diamondbacks continue to confound; playing at a well above .500 level, but with a record 10 games below.  What goes around, comes around, I suppose.

Full standings after the jump...

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Perhaps the second best day is upon us.  Trade Deadline Day is probably the Thanksgiving (where we fill up on rumors and deals until we fall asleep at 5 pm) to Opening Day's Christmas (replace with appropriate holidays for your nationality and beliefs).

While fun, all the movement throws these projections into havoc.  Please keep in mind that none of the trades are reflected here at all.

To continue the somewhat tortured holiday metaphor (and even mix it somewhat), Justin is the ghost of performance past. Nick is the ghost of performance future. And that makes me the ghost of the performance sorta kinda present but not really because it's only partially based in reality.  Anyway, moving on...

The AL Central tightened up quite a bit this week.  At this point it's anybody's game.  Well anybody on the White Sox, Tigers or Twins.  The Indians and Royals can rest up for next season.

In the NL Central the Cubs continue their resurgence in both the regular standings and the projected ones - jumping into a tie with St. Louis in both.  Milwaukee has fallen off the pace some and is fighting with Houston for the "we're not far enough out of it to give up, but we probably aren't really going anywhere" prize.  Forget I said all that if one of them lands Halladay though.

The AL East is still the big man on campus, although Tampa Bay has fallen out the three spot in the end of the season standings.  They're still in a tight race for the wild card with whoever doesn't win the division out of the Yankees and the Red Sox, with Texas sitting in the background biding their time.

The Mets halted their free fall this week, gaining three games.  Which was just enough to keep them solidly in fourth place in the NL East.  But I'm not sure anyone notices that they're still playing games there. 

The Giants have played well above their deserved record to this point.  If they can continue to do so, it will be quite a battle with Colorado for the NL Wild Card. San Diego actually improved a game this week, but because Washington improved by three, there's actually some competition for the first pick next season.

Full standings after the jump...

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he hot rumor over the past few days has been Roy Halladay heading to the Phillies for a package containing pitchers J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek and outfielder Dominic Brown. 

At least that was Ricciardi's request.  The Phillies are said to prefer to keep Drabek and include Carlos Carrasco.  As of midday Saturday, it's unclear where things will go from here.

Do either of these deals make sense for Philly?  Let's use Sky's trade value calculator and find out.

Update: I missed Dominic Brown's rise up the prospect lists and that changes things quite a bit.

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We're back after a week off. Unlike Justin, I didn't get to go anywhere.  So I'm much less tan and much more disgruntled.

It's been a interesting couple of weeks. Despite quite a few teams making major moves, the divisional picture hasn't changed all that much.

The Phillies gained another five games in the win column, pushing their projected record to 92-70.  But their lead over Atlanta stayed constant at seven games.  The Braves vaulted themselves into the wild card race with their performance and find themselves just four games behind the Rockies.

I didn't think it was possible, but the Mets lost another four games and now project to win only 74 games for the season.  Washington dropped even further as well, but that just solidifies their hold on Bryce Harper.

In the AL West the Angels have opened up a four game lead over Texas.  And with Arte Moreno thinking ace pitcher, it's likely that gap will continue to widen. Seattle's had a nice run to push over .500 in the projected standings.  Overall, the four AL West teams gained 11 games in the standings in the past two weeks - by far the biggest positive change in baseball.

The AL East shows little signs of loosening up.  Despite winning seven in a row in real life, the Yankees' projection remains unchanged at 97 wins.  Boston fell a few games off the pace and into a very tight wild card race with the Rays, but this one remains way too close to be definitive about.  Next week could very well jumble the teams into a completely different order.

There's not a whole lot to say about the NL West except that the Dodgers and Rockies are really good.  San Francisco's meteoric climb was halted over the past few weeks, leaving them nine back of the Rockies for the wild card. According to Justin, San Diego has been by far the worst team in the majors this season, but all they'll win for their prize is the second pick in the draft.  They probably wouldn't have had the money to sign Harper anyway and we wouldn't want to see another Matt Bush situation, right?

I've left the Central divisons for last and for good reason.  Out of the 11 teams across both leagues, only the White Sox project for more than 85 wins.  It's a three team race in the AL with Chicago holding the lead and the momentum (for what it's worth). 

The NL Central is simply indecipherable.  Four teams have a real chance to win the division.  None of them appear to be very good, but the playoff berth is pretty much up for grabs.  It's even tighter in real life, where even the Reds and Pirates are a hot streak away from thinking they're in contention.

Full standings after the jump...

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