SB Nation User Blog: Dan Turkenkopf

Rummaging through the Archives: Greatest Southpaw of All Time, Part Deux

Dan Turkenkopf — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 11:58:12 -0000

Since Beyond the Box Score opened it's doors on May 2, 2005, it's been home to some great baseball writers. There's a lot of excellent work on this site that most people never find because it's buried in the archives.

This series is intended to change that. On a semi-regular basis I'll be highlighting an article from the archives - perhaps providing commentary, perhaps not - and trying to resurface the best of the best that Beyond the Box Score has offered over time.

My tastes tend toward the macro, so I'll probably be focusing on things like overall sabermetric concepts or historical comparisons instead of trade reactions, although I'm sure I'll pick some of those too. Please let me know by email or comment if there's certain types of articles you're interested in.

Based on some feedback that you guys have offered to Sky, I'm thinking that most of these should be FanPosts instead of front-page stories. Please vote in the poll and let me know your thoughts.

Without further adieu, here's the first stop on our journey: May 4th, 2005, where Marc Normandin revisits an earlier look at the best left-handed pitchers of all time.

Normandin presents a list of contenders for the crown and lays out the statistical case of each.

Here are some important career numbers so far (ERA is from the Davenport Translated Cards, so ERA is translated for all-time):

Randy Johnson: 129.0 WARP3, 45.3 Peak WARP, 87.15 JAWS, 1308 PRAR, 4195 K, 1308 BB, 3.01 ERA, 144 ERA+

Steve Carlton: 130.7 WARP3, 40.4 Peak WARP, 85.55 JAWS, 1403 PRAR, 4,136 K, 1833 BB, 3.45 ERA, 115 ERA+

Sandy Koufax: 68.8 WARP3, 47.8 Peak WARP, 58.3 JAWS, 785 PRAR, 2396 K, 817 BB, 2.70 ERA, 131 ERA+

Warren Spahn: 161.3 WARP3, 50.4 Peak WARP, 105.85 JAWS, 1651 PRAR, 2583 K, 1434 BB, 3.18 ERA, 118 ERA+

Lefty Grove: 127 WARP3, 49.1 Peak WARP, 88.05 JAWS, 1297 PRAR, 2266 K, 1187 BB, 2.99 ERA, 148 ERA+

Tom Glavine: 122.0 WARP3, 42.1 Peak WARP, 82.05 JAWS, 1221 PRAR, 2262 K, 1292 BB, 3.51 ERA, 121 ERA+

Carl Hubbell: 100.8 WARP3, 54.6 Peak WARP, 77.7 JAWS, 1027 PRAR, 1677 K, 725 BB, 3.37 ERA, 130 ERA+

Hal Newhouse: 102.4 WARP3, 60.6 Peak WARP, 81.5 JAWS, 1005 PRAR, 1796 K, 1249 BB, 3.08 ERA, 130 ERA+

We're able to add a new metric to the discussion now that Rally has released WAR for all of baseball history. Please note that the WAR values are through 2008, while the rest of the statistics are from the original article with data through 2004.

Career WAR
Randy Johnson	91.8
Steve Carlton	80.9
Sandy Koufax	64.5
Warren Spahn	94.0
Lefty Grove	98.3
Tom Glavine	67.0
Carl Hubbell	64.4
Hal Newhouser	56.9

And in the familiar graphical form:

I'll let Marc share his conclusion at the time:

That last season of added on numbers may very well be what Johnson needs to surpass Warren Spahn and Lefty Grove as the greatest southpaw in history. His WARP3 and JAWS scores are close enough, especially considering the massive gap in strikeouts and the 57 additional PRAR over Spahn. Will Johnson be able to get the additional 30 WARP and 400 PRAR in the next 4 years? Maybe not (he will be 45 by then after all) but that is what it may take to take the imaginary crown away from one of these pitchers as baseball's premier lefthander. It is not that out of the picture; Johnson has come on strong the older he has gotten, and Spahn retired when he was 44. He was not effective his last 3 seasons, but maybe conditioning, better health, and the fact that Johnson's dominance has not withered may help him string those extra years together.

If not, then we have two answers for the greatest lefty of all-time, depending on your preference: Spahn has more WARP and a better JAWS due to more seasons, while Grove has the greatest ERA+ of all-time among lefthanders. Maybe Johnson will continue to blow away the competition with that fastball/slider combo (and his 144 ERA+, close enough to Grove's to give it to him considering the 2,000+ K gap) and the issue will be settled once and for all.

Johnson's ERA+ has slipped to 136 since this was written; which is still great, but nowhere near as close to Grove. And although Johnson was pitching pretty well this season before he went on the DL, he's probably not going to surpass Lefty's career WAR total.

I'm of the opinion that Lefty Grove is the best left-handed pitcher of all time, and that he has a case for the best pitcher of all time (Erik's Graph of the Day notwithstanding), so I know who I'm going with here.

Poll

Should the Rummaging through the Archive series be FanPosts or full-blown stories?

Graph of the Day: 2009 All Star WAR Matchup

Dan Turkenkopf — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 22:51:08 -0000

The 2009 All Star teams were announced yesterday in preparation for the July 14th game at the new Busch Stadium in St. Louis. While many are going to be identifying the unworthy (Jonathan Papelbon, Josh Hamilton) and the snubs (Matt Kemp, Brandon Inge - who are the most deserving of the final spots based on value this season in case you were wondering), we're going to start with the head-to-head matchup.

The bars on the positions represent the 2009 WAR for the starters at each position based on Fangraphs WAR; red for AL, blue for NL. The bars across deep center field is the 2009 WAR for each roster broken up by roster spot. Position players are on the left, pitchers on the right. I know the NL is likely going to lose two of the starting outfielders to injury, but we'll go with the rosters at this point.

Image courtesy of Google Earth.

Internet Baseball Writers Unite in a Quest for a HOF Vote

Dan Turkenkopf — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 11:53:34 -0000

Internet Baseball Writers Unite in a Quest for a HOF Vote

Like most of us, these guys aren't happy with the job the BBWAA has been doing. Unlike us, they've done something about it.

"We will not limit the amount of entries per publication, we will encourage comments, and we'll publish the results before the old guys do. An hour before. And we will publicize the hell out of it. In fact, it's an objective of ours to have media outlets publishing our vote results in a news cycle ahead of the BBWAA....think People's Choice Awards before the Oscars."

Membership is $10 a year and is open to anyone who writes about baseball on the Web.

H/T: Baseball Musings

BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of July 3, 2009

Dan Turkenkopf — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 14:59:43 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Woo! Where are we heading? Up the standings? That's right! (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Browse more photos »

Welcome to this holiday edition of the BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings.

This week we see a lot more movement than in previous weeks with the brightest fireworks coming from the Chicago White Sox who vaulted seven wins from last Friday, and solidly into second place in the AL Central.

The Yankees jump four wins courtesy of their seven game win streak and overall better performance, while the Jays went four wins the other direction. The AL East is still a dogfight with three teams between 95 and 97 wins. If it stays close throughout it's going to be one heck of a September.

The Angels and Brewers take back the top spots they lost last week and are joined by new arrival Philadelphia who took advantage of the slumping Mets (who dropped five games).

In the NL West, the Dodgers dropped below 100 projected wins for the first time in this series, while the Giants continue their climb - reaching .500. The division houses the two best teams right now in LA and Colorado, with San Francisco among the other top teams.

Full standings after the jump...

Disclaimer: These projected standings are based on Justin's Power Rankings. They do not accurately predict how the remainder of the season will actually unfold. Things like injuries, timely hitting, teams playing each other, and just plain old chance can cause major fluctuations in these results.

AL East

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Red Sox	48	30	0.583	97	65	0.599	+1
Rays	44	36	0.638	96	66	0.593	+2
Yankees	45	33	0.595	95	67	0.586	+4
Blue Jays	42	38	0.563	88	74	0.543	-4
Orioles	35	44	0.460	73	89	0.451	-1

AL Central

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Tigers	43	35	0.507	86	76	0.537	-1
White Sox	41	38	0.519	84	78	0.519	+7
Twins	41	39	0.503	82	80	0.506	0
Royals	33	45	0.467	72	90	0.432	-2
Indians	31	49	0.472	70	92	0.432	-3

AL West

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Angels	43	34	0.490	85	75	0.525	+2
Rangers	42	35	0.499	84	78	0.519	0
Mariners	40	38	0.462	79	83	0.488	+1
Athletics	33	44	0.422	69	93	0.426	+1

NL East

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Phillies	39	37	0.508	83	79	0.512	-1
Mets	39	39	0.502	81	81	0.500	-5
Braves	38	40	0.488	79	83	0.488	0
Marlins	41	39	0.452	78	84	0.481	+2
Nationals	22	54	0.422	58	104	0.358	-2

NL Central

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Brewers	42	37	0.514	85	77	0.525	+1
Cardinals	43	38	0.493	83	79	0.512	-2
Cubs	38	38	0.480	79	83	0.488	-2
Pirates	36	43	0.493	77	85	0.475	0
Reds	39	38	0.444	77	85	0.475	+2
Astros	38	39	0.445	76	86	0.469	+3

NL West

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Dodgers	50	29	0.594	99	63	0.611	-3
Rockies	41	37	0.565	88	74	0.543	0
Giants	42	36	0.461	81	81	0.500	+2
Diamondbacks	31	48	0.501	73	89	0.451	-1
Padres	34	44	0.404	68	94	0.420	0

Yanks Considered Trading Rivera For Wells In '95: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Dan Turkenkopf — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 18:02:50 -0000

Yanks Considered Trading Rivera For Wells In '95: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Stick Michael almost traded Mo to the Tigers the year before the dynasty got started.

The Yankees and their fans definitely dodged a bullet there.

Graph of the Day: 61+ Home Run Seasons

Dan Turkenkopf — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 00:13:34 -0000

Only four men have ever hit more than 60 home runs in a single season. In the seven seasons in which they achieved the feat, they racked up 462 home runs between them, or an average of 66 per year.

But not every massive home run season is created equal. Today's graph of the day compares those seven seasons using Rally's batting runs above average (BRAA) from his WAR calculations, Win Probability Added, and Win Probability Added divided by the average Leverage Index, which Tango suggests might be the best way to measure a player's contextual value.

Bonds had by far the most offensive value in his 73 home run season, with Sosa's 2001 and McGwire's 1998 vying for second.

Sosa's 1999 wasn't that impressive a season except for the 63 home runs. It doesn't even make the top 500 seasons since 1954 in terms of WPA. This is just one illustration of why some people question whether he deserves to make the Hall of Fame (ignoring steroids, of course).

For those who are curious, I converted batting runs to batting wins using the simple 10 runs to 1 win conversion. It's not exact, but it's easy and close enough.

The Win Expectancy and Leverage Index data is licensed from http://www.InsideTheBook.com

Batting runs above average from Sean Smith's BaseballProjection site.

One Win Curveballs | FanGraphs Baseball

Dan Turkenkopf — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 01:06:40 -0000

One Win Curveballs | FanGraphs Baseball

Dave Allen explores which pitchers get the most out of the movement of their curveballs.

It's very interesting stuff along the same lines that Harry's been working on.

BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of June 26, 2009

Dan Turkenkopf — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:45:32 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

Did you hear? We're back on top the division in the Poor Man's Projected Standings. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

Browse more photos »

I know it's only been three days since the last projected standings, but I'm trying to get on a regular schedule for these.

From now on, you can find the Poor Man's Projected Standings on Friday afternoon at 3 PM. Think of it as an early start to your weekend. Feel free to tell your boss you have to leave early to be the first to find out the week's results. I'm sure he or she will agree.

I've added a "Change" column so that you can see how each team improved (or not) from last week. A change could be caused by a move in the Power Rankings, or by the team's performance that week, although the biggest changes will involve both.

Two division leads flipped since earlier this week - although both are still quite tight. The Rangers take back the AL West from the Angels, and the Cardinals leapfrog the Brewers to lead the NL Central. Seattle and San Francisco improved their projected records the most this week, while the Royals were the biggest losers.

Full standings after the jump...

Disclaimer: These projected standings are based on Justin's Power Rankings. They do not accurately predict how the remainder of the season will actually unfold. Things like injuries, timely hitting, teams playing each other, and just plain old chance can cause major fluctuations in these results.

AL East

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Red Sox	44	28	0.581	96	66	0.593	-1
Rays	39	35	0.623	94	68	0.580	0
Blue Jays	40	34	0.587	92	70	0.568	+1
Yankees	40	32	0.569	91	71	0.562	0
Orioles	32	40	0.465	74	88	0.457	+1

AL Central

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Tigers	41	31	0.513	87	75	0.537	+2
Twins	37	37	0.510	82	80	0.506	+1
White Sox	35	37	0.472	77	85	0.475	0
Royals	31	40	0.469	74	88	0.457	-2
Indians	30	44	0.486	73	89	0.451	-1

AL West

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Rangers	39	32	0.492	84	78	0.519	0
Angels	38	32	0.484	83	79	0.512	-1
Mariners	37	35	0.451	78	84	0.481	+3
Athletics	31	40	0.410	68	94	0.420	-1

NL East

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Mets	37	34	0.537	86	76	0.531	-1
Phillies	37	33	0.514	84	78	0.519	-2
Braves	34	38	0.501	79	83	0.488	0
Marlins	38	36	0.436	76	86	0.463	+1
Nationals	21	49	0.429	60	102	0.370	0

NL Central

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Cardinals	40	34	0.508	85	77	0.525	+1
Brewers	38	34	0.510	84	78	0.519	-1
Cubs	34	35	0.505	81	81	0.500	-1
Pirates	33	39	0.484	77	85	0.475	0
Reds	35	36	0.439	75	87	0.463	-1
Astros	33	37	0.435	73	89	0.451	0

NL West

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Dodgers	47	26	0.614	102	60	0.630	0
Rockies	37	35	0.597	88	74	0.543	+1
Giants	39	32	0.435	79	83	0.488	+2
Diamondbacks	30	43	0.496	74	88	0.457	-1
Padres	31	40	0.410	68	94	0.420	+1

BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of June 23, 2009

Dan Turkenkopf — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 12:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

Kevin Milwood and the Rangers have coughed up a big lead in the Poor Man's Projected Standings. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Browse more photos »

This week's Poor Man's Projected Season Standings show significant tightening in the AL West, a decline in the play of the NL East, and a wild card free-for-all in the Senior Circuit.

And now the standard disclaimer:

These are based on Justin's Power Rankings. They are not meant to accurately predict how the remainder of the season will actually unfold. Things like injuries, timely hitting, teams playing each other, and just plain old chance can cause major fluctuations in these results. So take them with a grain of salt.

Onto the projections!

AL East

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%
Red Sox	42	27	0.592	97	65	0.599
Rays	37	34	0.624	94	68	0.580
Blue Jays	38	33	0.586	91	71	0.562
Yankees	38	31	0.569	91	71	0.562
Orioles	32	37	0.446	73	89	0.451

AL Central

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%
Tigers	38	31	0.504	85	77	0.525
Twins	35	36	0.500	81	81	0.500
White Sox	33	36	0.476	77	85	0.475
Royals	29	39	0.499	76	86	0.469
Indians	29	42	0.497	74	88	0.457

AL West

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%
Angels	36	32	0.506	84	78	0.519
Rangers	37	31	0.504	84	78	0.519
Mariners	35	34	0.428	75	87	0.463
Athletics	31	38	0.406	69	93	0.426

NL East

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%
Mets	35	33	0.548	87	75	0.537
Phillies	36	31	0.527	86	76	0.537
Braves	33	36	0.494	79	83	0.488
Marlins	35	36	0.436	75	87	0.463
Nationals	20	47	0.422	60	102	0.370

NL Central

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%
Brewers	37	32	0.520	85	77	0.525
Cardinals	39	32	0.492	84	78	0.519
Cubs	34	32	0.501	82	80	0.506
Pirates	31	38	0.493	77	85	0.475
Reds	34	34	0.445	76	86	0.469
Astros	32	35	0.432	73	89	0.451

NL West

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%
Dodgers	46	24	0.609	102	60	0.630
Rockies	37	33	0.545	87	75	0.537
Giants	37	32	0.427	77	85	0.475
Diamondbacks	29	41	0.503	75	87	0.463
Padres	30	38	0.391	67	95	0.414

Graph of the Day: Breaking Even on the Basepaths

Dan Turkenkopf — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 18:47:03 -0000

It's common knowledge in sabermetric circles that it's not just the stolen base that's important, it's also the caught stealing. A base stealer is only valuable if the impact of his successful steals outweighs the times he's caught.

The rule of thumb is that you need to be successful close to 75% of the time in order for an attempted steal to be worth it. This is determined by looking at the expected run value of the success and the failure and calculating what is known as the breakeven point.

Expected run value is an okay way to figure out the breakeven point, but a better one is by using win value. Using win value takes into account the fact that stolen bases attempts generally occur in situations that are more important than average.

Update: I've had at least one request for the raw data, so I've posted it here for all that are interested.

As part of the preparation for my historical stolen base article at The Hardball Times, I calculated the actual average win value of both the stolen base and the caught stealing for each season the Retrosheet era (1954-2008).

This allowed me to figure out the breakeven point for each of those seasons and plot them on this graph.

Be a little bit careful in quoting these numbers though. For this to be the true breakeven point, we'd need to assume that managers and players have figured out the optimum times to run, which could be a poor assumption.

The proper way to do this (I think) is to figure out the breakeven point for each possible steal situation and then calculate the average by weighting how often each situation occurs.

My guess is that the game on the field is closer to efficient than many like to think, so I think the actual numbers will be fairly close to the right answer.

References

The Win Expectancy and Leverage Index data is licenced from http://www.InsideTheBook.com

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at "www.retrosheet.org".