SB Nation User Blog: Dan Turkenkopf

BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of August 14, 2009

Dan Turkenkopf — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 18:08:00 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

Clay Buchholz and the Red Sox are watching their chances at the AL East title slip away. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

The dog days of summer are upon us, at least here on the East Coast. And no teams have been more affected than the Red Sox and the Rays. Their recent poor performance (along with the Yankees winning streak) has both teams thinking about the Rangers and Wild Card more than the division.

Speaking of the Rangers, they continue to hang around in the AL West, but the Angels just aren't giving them the opportunity to gain any ground. If the Rangers do make the playoffs, Neftali Feliz has the opportunity to replicate Francisco Rodriguez's magical rookie postseason. Seattle had a nice rebuilding season, but they're likely still a year or two away.

Staying out west, the Dodgers must be making their fans nervous. Their once insurmountable lead has dropped to something much more manageable. To be fair, the Dodgers are still playing well, but the Rockies have turned up their game.

Just when it looks like Philadelphia is going to run away with the division, Atlanta and Florida climb back into the picture. The Nationals are going on a little bit of a run, which may actually move them out of the number one slot in next years draft. Kansas City is the latest contender to challenge Washington for the crown.

The Cardinals look to have fought off a charge from the Cubs over the past month to remain solidly in first place in the NL Central. It looks like it's a two team race, as the division falls nicely into three distinct strata.

Finally, the AL Central is giving us what might be the closest race of the season. The White Sox and Tigers remained knotted atop the division, although neither would be projected to finish higher than third in any other division besides the NL Central (and only tied for second there). It will be interesting to see if one of the two pulls away - especially after Chicago's big acquisitions.

On a personal note, the Poor Man's Projected Season Standings will be taking a break for at least a week and perhaps more as my wife and I are expecting twins next Tuesday.

Full standings after the jump...

Disclaimer: These projected standings are based on Justin's Power Rankings.. They do not accurately predict how the remainder of the season will actually unfold. Things like injuries, timely hitting, teams playing each other, and just plain old chance can cause major fluctuations in these results.

AL East

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Yankees	72	43	0.606	100	62	0.617	+2
Red Sox	65	49	0.567	92	70	0.568	-2
Rays	61	53	0.595	90	72	0.556	-3
Blue Jays	54	59	0.539	80	82	0.494	-1
Orioles	47	67	0.433	68	94	0.420	-1

AL Central

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
White Sox	58	57	0.528	83	79	0.512	-1
Tigers	60	54	0.473	83	79	0.512	-1
Twins	55	59	0.489	78	84	0.481	-1
Indians	49	65	0.496	73	89	0.451	+1
Royals	45	69	0.427	65	97	0.401	+1

AL West

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Angels	68	44	0.522	94	68	0.580	0
Rangers	64	49	0.522	90	72	0.556	+2
Mariners	60	55	0.445	81	81	0.500	+1
Athletics	51	63	0.472	74	88	0.457	+2

NL East

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Phillies	64	48	0.534	91	71	0.562	0
Braves	60	54	0.542	86	76	0.531	+2
Marlins	61	54	0.487	84	78	0.519	+3
Mets	53	61	0.452	75	87	0.463	-1
Nationals	40	75	0.447	61	101	0.377	+2

NL Central

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Cardinals	64	52	0.498	87	75	0.537	+2
Cubs	58	55	0.504	83	79	0.512	-3
Brewers	56	58	0.468	78	84	0.481	-1
Astros	56	59	0.454	77	85	0.475	0
Reds	50	64	0.379	68	94	0.420	+1
Pirates	46	68	0.442	67	95	0.414	-3

NL West

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Dodgers	69	46	0.597	97	65	0.599	-2
Rockies	64	51	0.586	92	70	0.568	+1
Giants	62	52	0.482	85	77	0.525	-1
Diamondbacks	52	63	0.551	78	84	0.481	0
Padres	49	67	0.413	68	94	0.420	+3

BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of August 7, 2009

Dan Turkenkopf — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 12:29:03 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

The Giants are in the lead in the NL Wild Card race in real life. They don't fare as well in our projected standings. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

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It's the first week in August and we're finally starting to see some separation in most of the divisions.

The AL East still has a chance for a three team race for two spots, although the Rays continue to underperform their rankings.

The White Sox and the Tigers are projected to battle down to the wire, while the Twins hang around just behind, and the Royals flirt with 100 losses.

The Angels appear to have sealed up the AL West, despite an impressive effort from Texas.

Ditto for Philly and Atlanta. The Marlins have stayed close record-wise, but they're definitely winning more than would be expected from their component stats.

While the NL Central has been a mishmash of four to six teams for most of the season, it's now looking like a mishmash of two teams - the Cardinals and the Cubs.

The Dodgers show no sign of relinquishing the NL West and the Rockies look to have a leg up on the Giants for the Wild Card. The Diamondbacks continue to confound; playing at a well above .500 level, but with a record 10 games below. What goes around, comes around, I suppose.

Full standings after the jump...

Disclaimer: These projected standings are based on Justin's Power Rankings. They do not accurately predict how the remainder of the season will actually unfold. Things like injuries, timely hitting, teams playing each other, and just plain old chance can cause major fluctuations in these results.

AL East

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Yankees	65	42	0.602	98	64	0.605	-1
Red Sox	62	44	0.577	94	68	0.580	0
Rays	60	48	0.603	93	69	0.574	+2
Blue Jays	51	56	0.543	81	81	0.500	-1
Orioles	45	63	0.451	69	93	0.426	-2

AL Central

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
White Sox	56	53	0.537	84	78	0.519	+1
Tigers	57	50	0.483	84	78	0.519	+1
Twins	53	55	0.486	79	83	0.488	-2
Indians	46	62	0.490	72	90	0.444	0
Royals	41	66	0.422	64	98	0.395	-3

AL West

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Angels	64	42	0.531	94	68	0.580	+2
Rangers	60	47	0.509	88	74	0.543	0
Mariners	56	51	0.441	80	82	0.494	0
Athletics	47	61	0.458	72	90	0.444	+1

NL East

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Phillies	61	45	0.541	91	71	0.562	-2
Braves	55	53	0.538	84	78	0.519	-1
Marlins	55	53	0.476	81	81	0.500	0
Mets	51	56	0.453	76	86	0.469	-1
Nationals	37	72	0.446	61	101	0.377	+2

NL Central

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Cubs	57	49	0.511	86	76	0.531	+1
Cardinals	59	51	0.498	85	77	0.525	0
Brewers	54	54	0.469	79	83	0.488	-1
Astros	53	55	0.448	77	85	0.475	-2
Pirates	45	62	0.451	70	92	0.432	-1
Reds	46	61	0.377	67	95	0.414	-3

NL West

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Dodgers	66	42	0.614	99	63	0.611	+1
Rockies	59	49	0.586	91	71	0.562	+1
Giants	60	48	0.479	86	76	0.531	+3
Diamondbacks	49	59	0.533	78	84	0.481	+3
Padres	44	65	0.394	65	97	0.401	+2

The Baseball Analysts: Measuring a Pitcher's Ability to Locate a Pitch

Dan Turkenkopf — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 21:46:45 -0000

The Baseball Analysts: Measuring a Pitcher's Ability to Locate a Pitch

Dave Allen looks at how well Mariano hits his spots.

His analysis is based on assumed intended locations (the edges of the strike zones early in the at-bat), but it's still very interesting stuff.

BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of July 31, 2009

Dan Turkenkopf — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 01:20:06 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Cubs fans might just be a little too excited about their team's rise to the top of the NL Central. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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Perhaps the second best day is upon us. Trade Deadline Day is probably the Thanksgiving (where we fill up on rumors and deals until we fall asleep at 5 pm) to Opening Day's Christmas (replace with appropriate holidays for your nationality and beliefs).

While fun, all the movement throws these projections into havoc. Please keep in mind that none of the trades are reflected here at all.

To continue the somewhat tortured holiday metaphor (and even mix it somewhat), Justin is the ghost of performance past. Nick is the ghost of performance future. And that makes me the ghost of the performance sorta kinda present but not really because it's only partially based in reality. Anyway, moving on...

The AL Central tightened up quite a bit this week. At this point it's anybody's game. Well anybody on the White Sox, Tigers or Twins. The Indians and Royals can rest up for next season.

In the NL Central the Cubs continue their resurgence in both the regular standings and the projected ones - jumping into a tie with St. Louis in both. Milwaukee has fallen off the pace some and is fighting with Houston for the "we're not far enough out of it to give up, but we probably aren't really going anywhere" prize. Forget I said all that if one of them lands Halladay though.

The AL East is still the big man on campus, although Tampa Bay has fallen out the three spot in the end of the season standings. They're still in a tight race for the wild card with whoever doesn't win the division out of the Yankees and the Red Sox, with Texas sitting in the background biding their time.

The Mets halted their free fall this week, gaining three games. Which was just enough to keep them solidly in fourth place in the NL East. But I'm not sure anyone notices that they're still playing games there.

The Giants have played well above their deserved record to this point. If they can continue to do so, it will be quite a battle with Colorado for the NL Wild Card. San Diego actually improved a game this week, but because Washington improved by three, there's actually some competition for the first pick next season.

Full standings after the jump...

AL East

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Yankees	62	39	0.603	99	63	0.611	+2
Red Sox	59	42	0.576	94	68	0.580	0
Rays	55	47	0.597	91	71	0.562	-2
Blue Jays	49	53	0.544	82	80	0.506	0
Orioles	44	57	0.450	71	91	0.438	-1

AL Central

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
White Sox	51	51	0.532	83	79	0.512	-3
Tigers	53	47	0.477	83	79	0.512	0
Twins	52	50	0.490	81	81	0.500	-1
Indians	42	60	0.492	72	90	0.444	+1
Royals	40	61	0.435	67	95	0.414	0

AL West

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Angels	60	40	0.516	92	70	0.568	+1
Rangers	56	43	0.514	88	74	0.543	+1
Mariners	53	48	0.447	80	82	0.494	-3
Athletics	43	58	0.452	71	91	0.438	+1

NL East

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Phillies	58	41	0.549	93	69	0.574	+1
Braves	51	50	0.551	85	77	0.525	0
Marlins	53	48	0.465	81	81	0.500	+2
Mets	49	51	0.458	77	85	0.475	+3
Nationals	32	70	0.448	59	103	0.364	+3

NL Central

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Cardinals	56	48	0.501	85	77	0.525	+1
Cubs	54	46	0.503	85	77	0.525	+4
Brewers	51	51	0.475	80	82	0.494	-2
Astros	51	51	0.464	79	83	0.488	-1
Pirates	43	58	0.467	71	91	0.438	-3
Reds	45	56	0.402	70	92	0.432	-3

NL West

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Dodgers	62	39	0.598	98	64	0.605	-4
Rockies	54	47	0.582	90	72	0.556	-1
Giants	55	46	0.464	83	79	0.512	+1
Diamondbacks	44	58	0.521	75	87	0.463	+1
Padres	41	62	0.372	63	99	0.389	+1

A Phillie Phleecing? Is Halladay Worth It?

Dan Turkenkopf — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 20:39:14 -0000

he hot rumor over the past few days has been Roy Halladay heading to the Phillies for a package containing pitchers J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek and outfielder Dominic Brown.

At least that was Ricciardi's request. The Phillies are said to prefer to keep Drabek and include Carlos Carrasco. As of midday Saturday, it's unclear where things will go from here.

Do either of these deals make sense for Philly? Let's use Sky's trade value calculator and find out.

Update: I missed Dominic Brown's rise up the prospect lists and that changes things quite a bit.

I'm taking as given Halladay's $23 million surplus value (which Sky explained here). The Phillies are already extremely likely to make the playoffs according to our latest playoff odds, so there's no bonus available there.

What would the package of Happ, Drabek and Brown be worth?

J.A. Happ is a difficult commodity to value. Coming into this season, John Sickels rated him the Phillies fifth best prospect. Happ received a B- grade and a comparison to Mark Redman. Since that time he's found a place in the Philadelphia rotation and started his career 7-0 before dropping his first game last night.

Using the B- grade from Sickels, we estimate Happ's value at $7.3 million. But if we consider his success this season and value him as a bona fide major leaguer, we get a very different valuation.

The WAR totals assume he's pitching over his head so far this season, and that he's a lesser version of Mark Redman going forward. We can fairly call them conservative. As you can see, even with those caveats, this way of valuing Happ has him as more than a match for Halladay himself.

But is it fair to let a good half season of play increase his surplus value by $21 million? Perhaps, but perhaps not. Let's err on the side of caution and split the difference between his minor league value and his projected major league WAR value. That leaves Happ at 7.3 + 28.4 = 35.7 / 2 = $17.9 million.

Kyle Drabek was recently named to Baseball America's mid-season top 25 prospect list. According to Victor Wang's list of prospect values, that means Drabek has a surprlus value of $15.9 million.

Prior to the season Dominic Brown was rated by Sickels as the Phillies number six prospect, and was given a grade of B-. He's done well this season and moved up to number 17 on the top 25 prospect list. That puts him worth $25.1 million.

Add those three up and the Blue Jays are asking for a package of just about $59 million. That's an astounding $36 million return from the trade.

What would happen if Carrasco replaced either Happ or Drabek in the deal?

Carrasco was Philadelphia's top prospect this offseason according to Sickels with a B to a B+ grade, but he didn't make the Baseball America top 100 list. That puts him somewhere around $10 million in value.

So now we have three possible packages for Halladay's $23 million in value:

Happ, Drabek, Brown: $59 million. Surplus to the Jays: $36 million

Happ, Carrasco, Brown: $53 millon. Surplus to the Jays: $30 million

Drabek, Carrasco, Brown: $51 million. Surplus to the Jays: $28 million

No matter how you look at it, the Blue Jays are getting an amazing deal here.

The latest news is that the Phillies have said "no thanks" to the offer on the table. It's unclear what the teams will do from here.

Either way, it's going to be fun to watch the negotiations proceed over the next week. Stay tuned for further developments.

BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of July 24, 2009

Dan Turkenkopf — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 11:58:01 -0000

More photos » AP

The Phillies are back on track and looking for another one of these. (AP Photo/Philadelphia Phillies)

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We're back after a week off. Unlike Justin, I didn't get to go anywhere. So I'm much less tan and much more disgruntled.

It's been a interesting couple of weeks. Despite quite a few teams making major moves, the divisional picture hasn't changed all that much.

The Phillies gained another five games in the win column, pushing their projected record to 92-70. But their lead over Atlanta stayed constant at seven games. The Braves vaulted themselves into the wild card race with their performance and find themselves just four games behind the Rockies.

I didn't think it was possible, but the Mets lost another four games and now project to win only 74 games for the season. Washington dropped even further as well, but that just solidifies their hold on Bryce Harper.

In the AL West the Angels have opened up a four game lead over Texas. And with Arte Moreno thinking ace pitcher, it's likely that gap will continue to widen. Seattle's had a nice run to push over .500 in the projected standings. Overall, the four AL West teams gained 11 games in the standings in the past two weeks - by far the biggest positive change in baseball.

The AL East shows little signs of loosening up. Despite winning seven in a row in real life, the Yankees' projection remains unchanged at 97 wins. Boston fell a few games off the pace and into a very tight wild card race with the Rays, but this one remains way too close to be definitive about. Next week could very well jumble the teams into a completely different order.

There's not a whole lot to say about the NL West except that the Dodgers and Rockies are really good. San Francisco's meteoric climb was halted over the past few weeks, leaving them nine back of the Rockies for the wild card. According to Justin, San Diego has been by far the worst team in the majors this season, but all they'll win for their prize is the second pick in the draft. They probably wouldn't have had the money to sign Harper anyway and we wouldn't want to see another Matt Bush situation, right?

I've left the Central divisons for last and for good reason. Out of the 11 teams across both leagues, only the White Sox project for more than 85 wins. It's a three team race in the AL with Chicago holding the lead and the momentum (for what it's worth).

The NL Central is simply indecipherable. Four teams have a real chance to win the division. None of them appear to be very good, but the playoff berth is pretty much up for grabs. It's even tighter in real life, where even the Reds and Pirates are a hot streak away from thinking they're in contention.

Full standings after the jump...

Disclaimer: These projected standings are based on Justin's Power Rankings . They do not accurately predict how the remainder of the season will actually unfold. Things like injuries, timely hitting, teams playing each other, and just plain old chance can cause major fluctuations in these results.

AL East

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Yankees	58	37	0.589	97	65	0.599	0
Red Sox	55	39	0.579	94	68	0.580	-2
Rays	52	44	0.620	93	69	0.574	-1
Blue Jays	47	49	0.536	82	80	0.506	-2
Orioles	41	53	0.449	72	90	0.444	0

AL Central

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
White Sox	50	45	0.537	86	76	0.537	0
Tigers	49	44	0.499	83	79	0.512	-2
Twins	48	48	0.509	82	80	0.506	+1
Indians	38	58	0.466	69	93	0.426	-1
Royals	37	57	0.440	67	95	0.414	-5

AL West

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Angels	56	38	0.516	91	71	0.562	+5
Rangers	52	41	0.508	87	75	0.537	+1
Mariners	51	44	0.476	83	79	0.512	+4
Athletics	40	54	0.447	70	92	0.432	+1

NL East

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Phillies	54	39	0.548	92	70	0.568	+5
Braves	49	47	0.538	85	77	0.525	+5
Marlins	49	47	0.457	79	83	0.488	0
Mets	44	50	0.445	74	88	0.457	-4
Nationals	28	67	0.425	56	106	0.346	-2

NL Central

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Cardinals	52	46	0.495	84	78	0.519	-1
Brewers	48	47	0.494	81	81	0.500	-2
Cubs	48	45	0.485	81	81	0.500	+2
Astros	49	46	0.464	80	82	0.494	+4
Pirates	42	53	0.478	74	88	0.457	-1
Reds	44	50	0.420	73	89	0.451	-2

NL West

Team	Current Wins	Current Losses	eW%lg	Season Wins	Season Losses	Season W%	Change
Dodgers	61	34	0.607	102	60	0.630	+1
Rockies	52	43	0.581	91	71	0.562	+2
Giants	51	44	0.465	82	80	0.506	-1
Diamondbacks	41	55	0.504	74	88	0.457	0
Padres	37	59	0.383	62	100	0.383	-4

Too many anecdotes, not enough data

Dan Turkenkopf — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 00:24:59 -0000

Too many anecdotes, not enough data

The plural of anecdote is not data

Not the least bit about baseball, but very applicable to sabermetrics and sportswriters.

Believing something doesn't make it true, nor does hearing a couple fans complaining about something on the local talk radio.

Graph of the Day: Notable Mid-season Deals

Dan Turkenkopf — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 23:48:52 -0000

With the trading season upon us again, today's Graph of the Day looks at some of the more memorable mid-season deals.

The graphs shows the player's worth by WAR for the acquiring team in the season he was traded. These are not apples to apples comparisons because not all were traded at the same point in the season, but it's close enough.

Some of the trades are notable for how well they worked while others are remembered for the players moving the other direction.

WAR data courtesy of Sean Smith's Historical WAR database at www.baseballprojection.com

For those who don't remember the deals, here's a very quick recap of each.

Doyle Alexander was traded from the Braves to the Tigers in 1987 and pitched quite well down the stretch, helping the Tigers to the playoffs. The pitcher who went the other way? None other than John Smoltz.

Larry Andersen was moved from Houston to Boston during the 1990 season in return for a minor league third baseman. The Red Sox made the playoffs, although Andersen may not have been the difference maker. Jeff Bagwell, on the other hand, enjoyed a long career with the Astros that may eventually land him in the Hall of Fame.

The next two deals were both acquisitions by the Astros. Carlos Beltran had an amazing second half of the season and an even better postseason after coming over from the Royals as part of a three team deal, that cost Houston Octavio Dotel and netted the Royals John Buck, Mark Teahen and Mike Wood.

The Astros had an even better result after acquiring Randy Johnson from the Seattle Mariners in 1998, although they gave up a lot more too. In return for the rental of Johnson, Houston sent Freddy Garcia, John Halama and Carlos Guillen north.

Fred McGriff was a major reason the Braves outlasted the Giants to win their division in 1993. He was acquired for the low, low price of Vince Moore, Donnie Elliot and Melvin Nieves.

The Manny and C.C. deals were just last season, so hopefully everyone remembers those.

One that might be less remembered is Rick Sutcliffe moving from Cleveland to the Cubs in 1984. After the trade, he went 16-1 for Chicago, winning the Cy Young and finishing fourth in the MVP race. Joe Carter and Mel Hall were among the players going the other direction, so it wasn't a total loss for the Indians.

The final deal in this list is one Mets fans would like to forget. In 2004, the team traded top prospect Scott Kazmir to the Rays for Victor Zambrano. This is a trade that looked bad from the beginning and just got worse as time wore on. Zambrano was below replacement level for the Mets in only a few appearances, had a passable 2005 and then pitched himself out of the big leagues. Kazmir turned into one of the best young pitchers in the majors and deserves some of the credit for the Rays rise to respectability and beyond - although he's struggling this season.

Before anybody complains, I left off the Brock / Broglio trade because I was trying to focus on more traditional deadline deals - where one of the teams thinks they're acquiring the piece that puts them over the top. I don't think anyone really thought Brock was that missing piece - if I recall correctly Broglio was considered the real prize at the time the deal was made. Brock quickly proved people wrong (or I suppose proved the Cardinals right) by having a phenomenal 1964 on his way to a Hall of Fame career.

What other big mid-season deals am I missing?

Rummaging Through the Archives: Jeremy Bonderman and 200 Wins

Dan Turkenkopf — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 16:51:14 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Jeremy Bonderman has never quite made the impact that many projected for him. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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Today's edition takes us back to May 7, 2005 and Dan Scotto's article on the Tigers' ace of the future Jeremy Bonderman.

Scotto looks at how Bonderman's career trajectory might have been altered by his place on the historically bad 2003 Tigers team. At an age when most pitchers would be honing their craft in the minors, Bonderman was the #2 pitcher for a team that lost 119 games.

He showed some flashes of brilliance but, not surprisingly, didn't set the world on fire (4.79 FIP, 6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9). Putting up those numbers in the majors as a 20 year old did suggest he could be a special pitcher though.

I'll let Scotto speak for himself on Bonderman's chances:

It looked like (and still does) that Bonderman's development was altered by his rise to the majors, but Bonderman was just coming into his own right when he'd have been expected to have arrived, on a normal trek through the minors.

The early results from Bonderman, in 2005, have been outstanding. While his K/9 is down, that's largely of product of his more effective pitching; his K/PA has actually risen a bit, to .220, going into tonight's contest against the Angels (he's pitched exceptionally well, as of now). His control has also been impeccable. Through 7 innings tonight, Bonderman has his BB/9 down to 2.19.

We'll never know what would have happened if Bonderman hung around in the minors for another year. But the 22-year old ace has already notched 21 major league wins and is only getting better.

I'm sold on Jeremy Bonderman.

Unfortunately Bonderman has never really gotten on track. In some seasons he's been a slightly above average starter, but he's never become the ace everyone hoped he would be. Lately Bonderman's issues have been injuries rather than ineffectiveness.

I didn't choose this article to rip on Scotto for his prediction. I chose it to highlight how uncertain pitching prospects can be. For every Roger Clemens or Felix Hernandez, there are 10 Jeremy Bondermans, and probably 50 Bryan Bullingtons.

As an interesting side note, check out the poll at the end of the article that asks readers to pick the next 200 game winner.

Graph of the Day: Historical All Star Results

Dan Turkenkopf — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 18:36:02 -0000

Today begins the saddest three days of the summer - the three days with no real baseball games. Yes, we've got the Home Run Derby, and the All Star Game, but despite the hype, they just aren't as meaningful or fun as a regular season game (yes, even one between the Padres and the Nationals). Of course your mileage may vary.

Pretty simple graph today, showing which league has won the All Star game each year.

I'm sure most of you are aware that the AL hasn't lost a game since 1996, and only dropped three in the past 20 years. But this streak pales in comparison to the NL's 25-3-1 record from 1960-1985 (there were two games per season in 1959-1962), which included 12 in a row and 19 of 20 in one stretch.

Other interesting All Star game facts:

Since the game began in 1933, there's only been one season without an All Star game. Because of World War II, the 1945 game was not played.

Despite all the hubbub surrounding the All Star Game tie in 2002, it was not the first time an All Star game finished without a winner. The second game in 1961 was called after nine innings because of rain with the score knotted at one apiece. I suppose rain is different than running out of pitchers.

And this is just strange. During the NL's record 12 game winning streak, they had a stretch of seven wins where they scored seven runs all but one but one of the years. In the other they scored six.