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Dan Turkenkopf

  • joined Mar 28, 2008
  • last login Dec 18, 2012
  • posts 129
  • comments 983

A Fan Of...

  • MLB New York Yankees
  • NFL Green Bay Packers
  • NCAAB Penn Quakers
User Blog

Too many anecdotes, not enough data

8
The plural of anecdote is not data Not the least bit about baseball, but very applicable to sabermetrics and sportswriters. Believing something doesn't make it true, nor does hearing a couple fans complaining about something on the local talk radio.

Graph of the Day: Notable Mid-season Deals

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Today's Graph of the Day looks at some of the biggest mid-season deals in recent baseball history.

Rummaging Through the Archives: Jeremy Bonderman and 200 Wins

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Jeremy Bonderman winning 200 games? It didn't seem so far-fetched back in 2005. Join us as Beyond the Box Score goes Rummaging Through the Archives.

Graph of the Day: Historical All Star Results

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An All Star edition of the Graph of the Day. Check out the ebb and flow of league dominance in the Midsummer Classic.

BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of July 10, 2009

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This week's edition of BtB's Poor Man's Projected Standings. Who's rising up the standings and who's dropping?

Rummaging through the Archives: Greatest Southpaw of All Time, Part Deux

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We dust off an oldie but goody from Marc Normandin as the first entry in Beyond the Box Score's Rummaging through the Archives series.

Graph of the Day: 2009 All Star WAR Matchup

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A graphical depiction of the 2009 MLB All Star matchup.

Internet Baseball Writers Unite in a Quest for a HOF Vote

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Like most of us, these guys aren't happy with the job the BBWAA has been doing. Unlike us, they've done something about it. "We will not limit the amount of entries per publication, we will encourage comments, and we'll publish the results before the old guys do. An hour before. And we will publicize the hell out of it. In fact, it's an objective of ours to have media outlets publishing our vote results in a news cycle ahead of the BBWAA....think People's Choice Awards before the Oscars." Membership is $10 a year and is open to anyone who writes about baseball on the Web. H/T: Baseball Musings

BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of July 3, 2009

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A holiday edition of the Poor Man's Projected Standings. See which team's playoff chances are exploding and which are fizzling.

Yanks Considered Trading Rivera For Wells In '95: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

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Stick Michael almost traded Mo to the Tigers the year before the dynasty got started. The Yankees and their fans definitely dodged a bullet there.

Graph of the Day: 61+ Home Run Seasons

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Comparing the biggest home run seasons of all time in terms of overall batting value. Some might not be as good as you think (and some might be better).

One Win Curveballs | FanGraphs Baseball

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Dave Allen explores which pitchers get the most out of the movement of their curveballs. It's very interesting stuff along the same lines that Harry's been working on.

BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of June 26, 2009

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Using the Beyond the Box Score power rankings to predict who will make the MLB playoffs. See where your team will finish.

BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of June 23, 2009

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Using the Beyond the Box Score power rankings to predict who will make the MLB playoffs.

Graph of the Day: Breaking Even on the Basepaths

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What's the dividing line between success and failure when stealing a base? Find out how sure you need to be before you take off.

Adjusting steals for win value -- The Hardball Times

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My latest at The Hardball Times uses win probability to adjust stolen bases totals based on the situation when they occurred. Keep an eye out for some followup articles here at BtBS

Graph of the Day: The 2008 Rangers Infield

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We take a graphical look at how the 2008 Texas Rangers infield stacked up defensively, and whether they picked the right places to upgrade.

BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings as of June 11, 2009

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Using the Beyond the Box Score power rankings to predict who will make the MLB playoffs.

Draft Reactions Around the Blogosphere

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Beyond the Box Score searches far and wide to find MLB draft reactions so you don't have to.

Graph of the Day: The 2008 Rangers Outfield

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A graphical look back at last season's Rangers outfield.

BtB Poor Man's Projected Season Standings

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Using the BtB Power Rankings to predict the end of the season standings.

Defensive Replacement Level Defined

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Chris Dial uses his Defensive Runs Saved statistic (based on Zone Rating) to determine what a replacement level defender is. In general, it's about the same level as offensive replacement is (85% of average). Most of those he found as replacement level defenders are above average hitters (unsurprisingly), so they're still above replacement level in general.

Graph of the Day: Knuckleballers

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Today's Graph of the Day compares the knuckleballers of the past fifty years. Find out how Tim Wakefield stacks up to the rest of the bunch.

ESPN: Texas wins longest college baseball game in history

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The Longhorns beat Boston College 3-2 in 25 innings Saturday night. The game took over 7 hours to complete and included a 13-inning relief stint from Texas' Austin Woods. Amazingly he didn't allow a hit until his 13th inning of work. Pitch count devotees might want to look away as he threw 169 pitches - 120 for strikes.

Take A 3D Tour Of Your Favorite Baseball Stadium With Google Earth

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I haven't tried this yet, but if does what the headline promises, it will be quite cool.

Graph of the Day: Offense and the Economy

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The growth of the economy and baseball's run level have been curiously linked over the past 15 years. Find out how and join in the search for the reason.

The 300 Workout Plan " Joe Posnanski

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Poz looks at it what it takes to win 300 games as a pitcher. Here's a hint - it's not what you do in your 20s.

Rage " Joe Posnanski

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"The way I view it, baseball created this culture. They do seem to be trying to clean it up now … and I’m all for cleaning it up. Make testing tougher. Suspend Manny for 50 games. Suspend him for 100 games. Do what you have to do. But I can’t keep pretending that I’m shocked and furious and disgusted every time. I just don’t have those emotions in me over and over and over again. The way I figure it, a lot of Major League baseball players used performance enhancing drugs, maybe most baseball players, maybe even a vast majority. I’m just not going to be able to freak out every time someone new gets caught. Maybe that makes me naive. Then again, maybe it makes me cynical. Either way, I love baseball too much to miss the games tonight." Once again, Poz says what I'm thinking, in ways that I can only hope to reach.

A pitch is a terrible thing to waste. Or is it? (Part 2) -- The Hardball Times

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My latest article at the Hardball Times follows up from the last one to explore whether it's worth it to waste a pitch. For those who want the quick gratification, here's my conclusion, but you should still read the article for the rationale. It seems pretty definitive that wasting an 0-2 pitch doesn't pay off at the major league level. Hitters chase the wasted pitch only 5 percent of the time, hit for a higher wOBA in plate appearance where a pitch is wasted, and are less likely to strike out despite being more willing to swing at a following pitch outside of the strike zone.

Co-starring Bill James! (sort of) - SweetSpot by Rob Neyer - ESPN

2

Apparently Bill James will be animated for the Moneyball movie. Not excited, but actually drawn. Seems like a bit of a weird twist.

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