SB Nation User Blog: DanT

Cory Lidle Dies in Plane Crash

DanT — Wed, 11 Oct 2006 21:08:37 -0000

[editor's note, by dajafi] From the diaries. Shocking and tragic.

Wow, just... wow.

Here's the story from CBS Sportsline.

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/9721382

Apparently the plane crashed into a condo building in Manhattan. Just saw on ESPNNews that Lidle is confirmed dead.

Absolutely tragic. I'm still in shock. Obviously, my thoughts go out to his family.

RIP Cory.

Update [2006-10-11 17:15:39 by DanT]: It turns out Lidle was the pilot of the plane. Still no word on who the other passengers were, or if anyone in the building was hurt (or how it happened.

Update [2006-10-11 17:23:5 by DanT]: Here's the story from ESPN. It turns out Cory was the only person on the plane, and the three other deaths were in the building. On a side note, if anyone has seen the footage on TV, considering it happened five miles from the WTC, this feels even worse.

Crazy Idea

DanT — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 06:55:40 -0000

Now, normally, I try to be a voice of skepticism around here. And I'm not a big fan of crazy ideas, like thinking the Phillies are going to sign a 3B that every other team will want. Or sign a Japanese pitcher they haven't even scouted. Or ever stop sucking. But here's an idea so crazy it just might work.

Move Pat Burrell to 3B.

Have you stopped laughing yet? Good.

I'm working on a diary on FA 3Bmen, much like my earlier one on FA starters. And the grizzly conclusion is the Phillies don't have good options out there. So why not do something this silly?

The best option (for other teams, not us) is Aramis Ramirez. What would you say if I told you Pat Burrell is a better hitter? Okay, I may be pushing this too much. But if you look at him, overall, he's a very similar player. You lose a little slugging but make up for it in power.

Pat the Bat played thirdbase at The U. And it's not like he was some horrific, Dick Groatesque player. He was projected as a 3B on the big league level, and the only reason we moved him was... Scott Rolen. Yeah, remember when we ran him out of town for not being able to handle the pressure and not being a gamer and the fans hating him? Good times.

Now, how many players moved the other way on the defensive spectrum? How many LFs went to 3B? I don't know, and to be honest, I don't feel like doing the research. But how bad could this really be?

Poll

Could this idea work?

No, Burrell sucks!!!!! I love you Gillick!!!!!

0 votes

Absolutely

2 votes

Maybe, but there's better options

2 votes

Worth a try!

1 votes

No, he can't hack it

11 votes

16 votes | Poll has closed

Phillies Infield - Is This a Golden Age?

DanT — Tue, 15 Aug 2006 20:56:34 -0000

In the Mike Lieberthal thread, Philsin06 made an interesting assertion: right now the Phils have their best Firstbaseman, Secondbaseman and Shortstop that we've ever had. As it is, we seem to be finishing up a sort of Phillies Golden Age. Lieberthal is our second greatest catcher ever. Bobby Abreu is not only our greatest Rightfielders, but when all is said and done, one of the greatest Phillies ever. Is it possible this is spread all across the diamond? Well, I'll tell you this before the jump, David Bell & Abe Nunez are NOT the best Phils thirdbasemen ever.

First thing first, let me explain my methodology.

I went into the Baseball Prospectus player cards and took every player's WARP3 (which includes hitting, baserunning & defense and is adjusted for ballpark and season) and compiled that for their time with the Phillies. Now, this only includes their Phillies career. Bobby Abreu is no longer racking up Wins Above Replacement Position for the Phils, but for the Yanks, so those would not count.

I limited the study only to players who have at least 300 games played at the position we're considering. The only exception is Ryan Howard, for obvious reasons. And I limited the time frame to 1901. Incidentally, at 2B, SS & 1B (the positions I'm looking at) there are 17 players who fit those criteria for each position. Kinda spooky. I also did not bother breaking things down by position beyond that. If Ryan Howard DH'd for an interleague series, his numbers still count at 1B. Granny Hamner, who makes both the SS & 2B list, went back and forth between the two positions so much it would've been very difficult to separate them. I made two exceptions though. The notorious Kid Gleason had an entire career as a pitcher for the Phils in the 19th century, went away, then came back a decade later as a firstbaseman. I only included the second career. And Dick Allen had two distinct careers with the Phils as well. You may say I only included Dick Allen's numbers, not Richie Allen's.

So let's have some fun.

I think the best case can be made for Jimmy Rollins. Check out these 17 "terrific" shortstops.
Larry Bowa    53
Granny Hamner    44.8
Mickey Doolan    38
Jimmy Rollins    37.7
Dick Bartell    33.6
Dave Bancroft    31.2
Heinie Sand    22.7
Kevin Stocker    22.5
Bobby Wine    17
Dickie Thon    16.6
Steve Jeltz    16.2
Ruben Amaro Sr    15.9
Ivan DeJesus    8.7
Chico Fernandez    8.7
Rudy Hulswitt    7.6
Bobby Bragan    5
Desi Relaford    3.1
Its interesting to see names like Desi Relaford on there. Ivan Dejesus was certainly worth Ryne Sandberg. Forgot how good Dickie Thon was. And the neat thing with Kevin Stocker is that he was worth seven wins after he left. The flip side of the Dejesus trade. And of course the best player here, Dave Bancroft, we traded.
Anyway, if you were to discuss all time great Phils SS, the conversation begins and ends with Larry Bowa. Granny Hamner was close, but the fact that half those AB were as a secondbaseman make things a little weird.

I had to look up Mickey Doolan, who apparently went to Villanova, was a solid player here, then jumped to the Federal League. Baseball Reference has some interesting comps for him, the most recent being Alfredo Griffin. But Jimmy Rollins should pass him for third later this year.

J-Roll has generally been worth, roughly, 6 wins a year. This year he has been worth over 7 so far, and will probably pass 8 wins. That would leave him about 15 wins behind Larry Bowa, entering his age 28 season next year. I think unless he gets hurt or traded, Rollins will almost certainly go down as the greatest Phils shortstop ever.

Now let's take a look at our keystone players.

Tony Taylor    47.5
Granny Hamner    44.8
Mickey Morandini34.7
Juan Samuel    34.2
Otto Knabe    25.1
Dave Cash    24.5
Chase Utley    21.1
Cookie Rojas    20.8
Placido Polanco    19.5
Manny Trillo    18.4
Bernie Friberg    18.2
Fresco Thompson    16
Kid Gleason*    14.9
Marlon Anderson    10.8
Emil Verban    10.2
Bert Niehoff    7.6
Denny Doyle    5.7

Again, some interesting names here. That Juan Samuel is 4th, and Mickey Morandini 3rd really makes you wonder. After only about 400 games Chase Utley ranks 7th and is hot on the heels of Cash and Knabe. So far, in his two full seasons, Utley is worth about 9 wins each year. If he keeps that up (which is very possible) Utley should pass by Tony Taylor in 2009 or 2010, when he's 30. Utley is very much in the same position Rollins is in, largely because his competition is poor, but also because of some excellent talent.

Now let's look at the worst position, firstbase.

Von Hayes    48.2
Fred Luderus    41.2
John Kruk    32.9
Pete Rose    25.3
Don Hurst    22.1
Dolph Camilli    19.6
Ed Bouchee    18.9
Eddie Waitkus    18.8
Kitty Bransfield18.3
Jim Thome    17.5
Bill White    14.3
Deron Johnson    13.4
Rico Brogna    13.3
Ryan Howard    11
Ricky Jordan    10.2
Dick Allen*    10
Travis Lee    8.5
Walter Holke    1.8

Some great names on here. Ryan has already blown by Travis Lee (like oh so many fastballs did) and just recently passed Ricky Jordan. There's still a lot of people in front of him though. I think what is amazing is that Jim Thome was worth over 17 wins in basically two years. If he could've stayed healthy, I think he would've certainly been the greatest Phils firstbaseman ever, even at his age. I know this may be hard for people to believe, but he's been worth more than Howard this year. I'm not saying this to slag on Howard, but just so that we can remember someone truly special who played here for two years.

Which seems to be the issue with this list. There are some good players on here, but none with much staying power. After next season, barring injury, Howard should pass most of them, including the Greatest Player Ever, Rico Brogna. But can he crack the Top 3?

John Kruk is 22 wins away. Now, Howard is looking at maybe 7+ wins this year. If he can keep that up for three more years, Krukker is in trouble. He'd need two and a half years on top of that (or less, if he can put up a monster year) to pass Fred Luderus and Von Hayes (for those curious as to why I called Luderus the best 1B in Phils history earlier, its because Von was mostly an outfielder). So we're looking at roughly 5-6 years, give or take depending on if he explodes or if his ligaments explode. That takes him up through his age 32 season.

Will Ryan Howard still be an excellent player in 2012? Well, we're looking at someone with "old player skills" and bad defense. Of course, BP has his top comps as Travis Hafner, Mo Vaughn (circa 1994), Cecil Fielder (circa 1990), Mike Epstein, Willie Stargell, Carlos Delgado, Ryan Klesko, Richie Sexson and Frank Howard. That's an encouraging list.

I'm not going to come to any conclusions on this one. You all can interpret this data any way you want. But I think its definitely possible that we may, right now, be dealing with the best infield in Phillies history and, up until three weeks ago, had five of the best Phils ever on this team.

And we still can't win the Wild Card. Yeesh.

Poll

Who is the best at their position?

I miss Rico Brogna

9 votes

Just Utley

8 votes

Utley, Howard and Rollins

8 votes

Just Howard

0 votes

Utley and Howard

10 votes

Just Rollins

0 votes

Utley and Rollins

5 votes

None of them

0 votes

Howard and Rollins

0 votes

40 votes | Poll has closed

Phils Free Agent Outlook

DanT — Mon, 07 Aug 2006 05:05:31 -0000

I noticed that there are some who think the Abreu trade is good because it will allow the Phillies to address the pitching problem in the off-season. That made me look into the 2006/2007 free agent class of pitchers. The results of the study may surprise you.

Unless you're a Phillies fan, in which case you'll know this class is horrible.

First, I took off the following pitchers because their option will likely be picked up:

Mark Buehrle, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, John Smoltz, Tim Wakefield, Kerry Wood.

I'm not including Roger Clemens because there is no way he'd ever want to pitch here. Brad Radke was left off because he's already said he'll retire. And a few pitchers, the Joe Mays type, I left off because no one cares. Greg Maddux is gone because if he does pitches, it won't be on the East Coast. Vicente Padilla probably won't come back, and after his recent comments, I think Cory Lidle's Phillies career is over.

That left us with 18 pitchers. For each one I included their 2007 Season Age, their 2006 VORP (not the best way to calculate value, but good enough for this exercise), their 2006 IP, and their 2006 base salary. I grouped them by VORP, broke them down with some comments, and included your Pat Gillick Threat Level to let you know how scared you should be of our idiotic GM this off-season.

Let's start off with the bottom 4:

    Bruce Chen (30)      -12.5    82.7    3.8 million
    Mark Mulder (29)     -3.4    88.7    7.75 million
    John Thomson (33)    -1.6    79.3    4.75 million
    Jason Marquis (28)    0.5    147.3    5.15 million

Nothing to see here. Jason Marquis had one big year but has been trending downward since. John Thomson, other than a couple small stretches, is not a very good pitcher. Mark Mulder is the scary one. He's had some great years, and despite the injury risk and horrible season will still carry a BIG price tag on him. May be worth a gamble but not at the price he'll get (which, based off the other pitchers available, could be a high level). Bruce Chen had one good year. Hopefully we won't bring him back.

Pat Gillick Threat Level: Orange. Mulder is very tempting, and all of these guys have had enough success recently that they may be tempting and should get big contracts.

Next up are the fourth/fifth starter candidates.

    Mark Redman (33)    7.9    110.3    4.5 mill
    Tony Armas (29)    7.1    97.7    2.1 mill
    Jeff Suppan (32)    5.1    120.1    4 mill

Some decent back end options. Mark Redman has steadily gotten worse and may not have much left in the tank. If you look up innings eater in the dictionary, you'll see Jeff Suppan's picture (much like if you look up cliché, you'll see that line). He has also steadily gotten worse, and probably will give you nothing more than replacement level performance. Tony Armas is the interesting one. Ever tantalizing, going back to the Pedro deal, he's also highly brittle. The problem is he also hasn't been that good lately. Plus he screwed up my fantasy team, so I really hate him.

Pat Gillick Threat Level: Yellow. It'd be a waste to give any of these guys much money, but at worst, they're just a mediocre starter.

I left Adam Eaton out of this (although he would've fit in with the last group) because of his injuries. I think Adam Eaton is the real deal, and I would've preferred to have him the last six years to Andy Ashby, but he's missed significant portions of the last two seasons.

The next group are those who have been pretty good this year, but nothing special.

    Woody Williams (40)    14.2    77.3    5 mill
    Aaron Sele (37)    13.7    82.0    $500,000
    Miguel Batista (36)    12.8    143.3    4.75 mill
    Tomo Ohka (31)    11.8    58    4.53 mill
    Steve Trachsel (36)    10.5    116.0    2.5 mill
    Andy Pettitte (35)    9.8    145.0    17.5 mill

Two things about this group jump out. Other than Ohka, they're all old. Most of them also haven't thrown many pitches. Woody Williams hasn't pitched much, is old, expensive, and has superficially good stats. That's scary. Aaron Sele is still pretty much useless. Miguel Batista (who knew he was so old?) is probably a solid mid-rotation option. He's also the kind of solid groundball pitcher we need here. Tomo Ohka, the kid of the bunch, is actually a very decent option for a fourth starter. He also probably won't be that expensive. Steve Trachsel has moved from solid, if unspectacular, to innings eater. Of course, if the Mets win the World Series, he'll cash in (and could the Phils be the ones to pay him for Carlos Beltran's exploits? Yes). Finally, Andy Pettitte. Its amazing to think it was just about seven years ago we were waiting to see if the Phils could land him. How different would those years have been? He's always been slightly overrated, and last year's insanely great performance doesn't help with that perception. He'd probably be an excellent option, except look at that last column. Even if he wanted to pitch in Philly (which he probably wouldn't) do we think he'd be less than eight figures a year?

Pat Gillick Threat Level: Red. We have proven winners, guys that know how to pitch, and people who could bring the right attitude to the club. Although there's some good options, with the way the market will play out, this could be disastrous.

Next are the pitchers who have done pretty well this year, but not amazing.

    Ted Lilly (31)        23.6    126.3    4 mill
    Jamie Moyer (44)    22.9    143.0    5.5 mill
    Gil Meche (28)    22.7    131.7    3.7 mill

Ted Lilly is probably the best option on the market. He shouldn't be that expensive, there's no reason he wouldn't pitch here, and he's always been a pretty good hurler. Would be a good Jon Lieber type. Also, his full name is Theodore Roosevelt Lilly. That's cool. Jamie Moyer would be a nice story, a Hawk coming home to finish his career. He's also a pretty good pitcher still. The only problem is he relies on his defense and is a flyball pitcher. Probably not a good marriage for the 2007 Phillies. Gil Meche could be the troublesome one of this year's market. Not that good a pitcher, and not the healthiest either. But he's still the fireballing kid that the Mariners have been developing seemingly forever.

Pat Gillick Threat Level: Orange. These guys are close enough to the top of the market they'll probably be too expensive. However, Lilly is a pretty good pitcher and Meche may not be a bad risk. One of these could work out for the Phils, but likely not.

Jason Schmidt (34) 45.5 150.3 10.5 mill
Barry Zito (29) 43.2 156.7 7.9 mill

The cream of the crop. Either of these guys could be our ace. And Barry Zito happens to be my favorite player. Also, notice that Jason Schmidt really isn't that old, despite being around a long time. The problem is we're not getting them. Barry Zito is, unfortunately, going to be a Met. They can pay him the big bucks, and Rick Peterson is his favoritest pitching coach in the whole wide world.

The problem is Schmidt. He's the second best pitcher in the NL. The only pitchers in baseball better than him this year are Brandon Webb, Francisco Liriano, Johan Santana, Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander. None of them will ever see the free market. Every team that could use an ace will be after him. Oakland, Minnesota, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Colorado, Florida & Tampa Bay would probably not give him the money he wants. That still leaves 22 teams. Will the Phillies a) give him more money than teams like NYY/BOS/LAA and b) be as attractive an option as the real contenders?

Pat Gillick Threat Level: Blue. We have no shot at these guys.

This market is actually quite bad. There are two studs, a couple of interesting options, and then a lot of mediocrity. The problem with that typically means the mediocrity gets a lot of money. So if the Abreu trade was made to allow the team to make a splash in the free agency period, its an even worse trade. Shockingly, the situation leaks even more bleak than normal.

Poll

Who will the Phils Sign?

Miguel Batista

3 votes

Someone Even Worse

22 votes

Jason Schmidt

16 votes

Woody Williams

3 votes

Ted Lilly

12 votes

Steve Trachsel

1 votes

Jamie Moyer

4 votes

Tomo Ohka

4 votes

Gil Meche

22 votes

No One

10 votes

97 votes | Poll has closed