SB Nation User Blog: Dancing Football

OPEN GAME THREAD: LSU vs. WSU

Dancing Football — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 20:21:25 -0000

The Time: 7pm PST

The Place: KeyArena in Seattle, WA

The Coverage: Television available on CBS College Sports. Find your local radio station here. Audio is also available for a fee online at wsucougars.com.

Kenpom says: No. 84 WSU 74, No. 143 LSU 66 (64 possessions, 79 percent confidence)

via wsucougars.com

Players to Watch:

DeAngelo Casto, WSU: Dee has performed well this year despite having very little help down low on the defensive end. This game will test his rebounding prowess, as he will face one of the best offensive rebounders in the country. If Casto can limit second chances for the Tigers, he would eliminate on the most important parts of LSU's offense.

Bo Spencer, LSU: The Tigers' best player missed some key games to start the year. He takes the most shots and is the team's leading distributor. Bo hasn't shot as well from beyond the arc as he did last season, but he has the ability to knock the deep ones down. He could get hot and carry LSU to a win.

X-Factors:

James Watson, WSU: Looks like Watson has finally risen above Charlie Enquist in the depth chart. This is a good thing heading into LSU, since James has the athletic ability to match LSU's forwards. Charlie would have a tough time keeping up with these guys. In limited action, James has put up some impressive numbers. We should expect some regression as playing time increases, but he already looks to have the ability to help the Cougs in this game and the rest of the year.

Storm Warren, LSU: Nuss and I raved about this guy on last week's podcast. At that time, his offensive rebounding percentage sat at a ridiculous 24.1%. That means he was gathering one out of every four of his team's misses. After a poor performance in his last game (incidentally, a game LSU barely won over Rice) he has dropped to a still ridiculous 18.4%. If Storm is able to hit the offensive glass, something that the Cougs have been poor at preventing, he could be a game changer.

The Keys:

The Cougars win if...they control the glass, take care of the ball, and hit their threes. LSU has been poor at forcing turnovers and are not very good at defending the three point shot. The Cougs need to exploit these weaknesses.

The Tigers win if...they dominate offensive rebounding and Bo Spencer returns to last year's form. As I already mentioned, LSU excels at getting second shots and Bo Spencer has the ability to light us up from the outside.

OPEN GAME THREAD: Air Force vs. WSU

Dancing Football — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 19:40:11 -0000

The Time: 1pm PST

The Place: Spokane Arena

The Coverage: No TV today. Find your local radio station here. Live streaming audio is also available for a fee at wsucougars.com. If you don't mind listening to the Air Force announcers, you can find their stream for free at goairforcefalcons.com.

The Lineups:

via wsucougars.com

Players to Watch:

Grant Parker, Air Force: The 6-8 senior could give the Cougs fits down low. He is posting an excellent 22.4 DR%. He also can stretch the defense, as he is shooting 40% from three so far this year.

Evan Washington, Air Force: The 6'4" guard plays almost entirely inside the arc on offense. He is excellent at drawing fouls and getting to the line, posting a 102.4 free throw rate.

Klay Thompson, WSU: Duh.

X Factors:

DeAngelo Casto, WSU: Can Casto shut down Air Force's most effective offensive weapon?

The Air Force Bench: Air Force has eleven guys posting minute percentages over 20%. How are they able to do that? They have 21 guys listed on the official roster. How is that possible? Service academies are exempt from scholarship limits because nobody pays any money to go there!

The Keys:

The Cougars win if...They use their athleticism to overwhelm Air Force and they get Klay going on the offensive end. I know that sounds redundant, but as Klay goes, this team goes.

Air Force wins if...The slow pace frustrates the Cougs and exposes their weakness in the half court.

College Sports Open Thread

Dancing Football — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 17:12:30 -0000

Busy day today. Start your morning off right with Ohio State-Butler and battle between two historic programs, Indiana-Kentucky. Later UW-Georgetown and a host of lower division football playoffs. (Playoffs?) Here is your place to discuss.

EDIT 10:45: Also, the Army-Navy game. Thanks Nuss for the reminder.

OPEN GAME THREAD: IDAHO @ WSU

Dancing Football — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 22:24:21 -0000

by Dean Hare - AP

Wondering how Idaho was able to handle Portland so easily? Look no further than the man who gave the halftime speech.

View full size photo »

Time: 8pm PST

Location: Friel Court in frigid Pullman, WA.

TV: FSN Northwest, FCS Pacific

Radio: Find your local station here. Or streaming online for a fee at wsucougars.com.

via wsucougars.com

Players to Watch:

Klay Thompson, WSU: Starting to sound a little redundant, but as Klay goes, the Cougs go. Can he bounce back from a couple below average performances?

Steffan Johnson, Idaho: Johnson transferred from Pacific, where he played over 30 minutes a game and averaged over 14 points per game two years ago. He has quickly asserted himself as Idaho's best offensive threat.

X-Factors:

DeAngelo Casto, WSU: Can Casto dominate the inside against players that he should be able to overmatch physically? Casto's defensive rebounding percentage has left something to be desired so far this season, sitting at just over 15%. The Cougs need Dee to assert himself on the defensive glass and end possessions for the other team, because we know there are not many other guys on the front line who are capable of doing so.

Mac Hopson, Idaho: The former Coug has made a nice transition to the U of I. He is shooting well and distributing the ball well so far this season. Look for him to play with a little extra fire against his former school.

The Keys:

The Cougars win if... they defend the three point shot better than they have all year, dominate the glass, and eliminate stupid turnovers.

The Vandals win if... they continue their hot shooting from the outside and take advantage of the Cougs lackluster three point defense, and Klay is unable to do the same on the other end.

A first look at Idaho

Dancing Football — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 20:20:47 -0000

Moscow - City of mystery, So full of history, noble and old
Mm-mm-mm-mm-mm-mm-mm-Moscow, there is a burning fire
That never will expire, deep in your soul
-Genghis Khan "Moscow"

Every Coug has a special place in their heart for Moscow. For earlier generations, Idaho's younger drinking age built WSU's party reputation as freshman could rub elbows with fifth year seniors at Moscow's various liquor stores and watering holes. Those days are gone, but most Cougars still find themselves making the 8 mile trek across state lines for the cheap DVDs from Wal Mart, a Dad's weekend postgame dinner, and Winger's. Of course, there is also the area's premier shopping center, the Palouse Mall. They know what you want, and they got it.

Also located in Moscow, La Casa Lopez, which has the best Mexican food on the Palouse. Go during dinnertime (after 4pm) and have the bean dip. It's phenomenal.

In my time in Pullman, I took my fair share of trips across the border. I also had the opportunity to take in two basketball games in the Cowan Spectrum. I saw the legendary battle for last place in the WAC between the Vandals and San Jose State in 2007. I also saw the Cougs play there in the turnaround year.

That Coug game was my first experience in the Kibbie Dome. (For those of you that don't know, Cowan Spectrum is the Kibbie Dome with a giant divider down the middle and a basketball court laid out over the north end of the football field.) The Vandals were having a double header, so I was lucky enough to take in some WAC women's basketball action!

On a side note, this game took place the day after Dennis Erickson left for Arizona State. It took every decent cell in my body to keep myself from bringing a sign that said "He's Gone" to flaunt around. I think I made the right choice.

My friends and I had seats in the front row on the side opposite the benches. They were the seats assigned by our tickets, and we bought them three days before the game. The crowd was sparse on that side, so we stuck out pretty well. Towards the end of the women's game, the cheerleaders brought out pizza boxes to get the crowd cheering. WSU does the same thing, and despite all my crazy cheering during my college career, I never was able to secure one. Seeing an opportunity, I yelled and screamed and jumped up and down, all the while wearing crimson. The cheerleaders, who were apparently colorblind, handed me the pizza box amongst a cascade of boos from Vandal fans. The pizza box was a bit heavier than I expected and I opened it, expecting a coupon. Instead, there was a large pepperoni pizza! My group sat happily the rest of the night and enjoyed pizza while Kyle Weaver and company avoided a total letdown and defeated Idaho.

The 2009-2010 version of Idaho is nothing like the pushovers of that season. Through their first seven games of the season they are ranked 84 by kenpom.com, 31 spots higher than the Cougs. They play well on offense, ranked 45th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. They beat Eastern Washington soundly and crushed a Portland team that did the same to UCLA. This is not a cupcake game for Washington State.

Let's take a look at some important factors:

Pace:

Once again, the Cougars face a fast-paced team. Idaho averages just over 70 possessions a game. As we said last time against Kansas State, that is ideal for a young Cougar team that struggles in offensive sets. However, the pace of game against the Wildcats seemed to get the best of Wazzu, as they struggled to take care of the ball. Luckily, Idaho will not have the athletic presence to pressure the ball like Kansas State was able to. Expect a third straight game over 70 possessions.

Rebounding:

Idaho is a poor defensive rebounding team. They are allowing 29.6% of opponent misses to be turned into an offensive rebound. However, that is actually better than the Cougs, who sit at 34.9%. The Vandals do a solid job on the offensive glass but will not have the strength advantages down low that Kansas State used to bully the Cougar bigs. WSU probably wins the rebounding battle in this one primarily on the backs of Casto, Capers, and Thompson.

Shooting:

Idaho has done a fine job making it tough on their opponents in making field goals. They are 84th in the country in eFG% allowed. They also shoot the ball well themselves, as they are 14th in the nation in eFG%. Despite a less-than-stellar performance last time out, the Cougs have also shot the ball well so far, ranking 16th in eFG%. They racked up most of those stats playing teams with similar athletes to Idaho, so look for this one to be a high scoring affair.

The biggest concern here is Idaho's ability to shoot the three. They are 4th in the nation on three point percentage, and the Cougs have proved time and time again in this short season that they struggle to defend that. This could be a difference maker in the matchup.

Free Throws:

The Vandals are very good at getting to the line, ranking 66th in the nation in free throw rate. They are even better at preventing the other team from getting there, ranking 47th in free throw rate allowed. This could be a problem for Wazzu, as they have relied heavily on free throws on many occasions this season. The good thing is that Reggie Moore has shown the ability to get in the lane against anybody, and Klay has done very well against smaller guards in drawing fouls. The Cougs should outperform previous Vandal competition in free throw rate. Don't be surprised to see Idaho at the charity stripe frequently as well. If you are recording this game on the DVR, be sure to leave some extra time.

Do not expect this game to be the blowout it has been the last few years Coug fans. Idaho will be tough team in the WAC conference and they've already shown what they can do in defeating a pretty solid Portland squad. Interestingly, the Vandals have ten transfers on their roster, including former Coug point guard Mac Hopson among a host of junior college guys. This matchup should be a contest worthy of the long rivalry between these two schools.

A first look at Kansas State

Dancing Football — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 19:35:58 -0000

During my summer migration from Washington to Nashville, I had the "opportunity" to drive through the state that Dorothy once called home. For the first few hundred miles, Kansas does not disappoint. Flat plains covered with wheat are met with a steady stream of billboard evangelism and adult superstores. Unlike their neighbors to the west (Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho), Kansas does not subscribe to the 75 mph speed limit. They want you to enjoy those wheat fields at a more fossil-friendly speed of 70 (Still not as bad as going 65 through Eastern Oregon).

About sixty miles outside of Topeka, the landscape changes. To the right appears a patch of trees followed by an hill. An actual hill! Something not seen since just east of Denver. To the left, something that stands taller than the hill. A series of massive billboards in purple and black, all with one letter. Combined they spell K-A-N-S-A-S S-T-A-T-E.

Why is this important? It's not. Maybe I'm just a narcissist who thinks everything I do or say is interesting. Or maybe I wanted to show that these two universities have some similarities. From the way they pop out of nowhere in the middle of endless wheat fields, to the way they've had some moments of football glory not so long ago and have struggled more recently, to the way they've enjoyed some occasional basketball success that resulted in abrupt departures of coaches. Probably the first one.

Our Cougs travel to this familiar landscape tomorrow to take on those Kansas State Wildcats. This will be a second consecutive difficult road test for Washington State. This team features a little more size and beef up front, with a little less height at the guard position than the previous opponent. K-State has been impressive on both ends of the floor against mostly lesser competition and like the Cougs, has lost their only game against a high-level competitor. Most importantly for WSU, the Wildcats like to push the ball, and as we've pointed out several times before, that gives the Cougars the best chance to succeed.

Let's break down some of the important factors for this game:

Pace:

K-State is currently 70th in the nation in adjusted tempo at 71.9 possessions a game. WSU's two fastest games of the year have been 73 possessions in the opener and 72 in their last matchup versus Gonzaga. Expect both sides to try and push the ball all game long. Don't be surprised if this is the fastest pace you've seen from a Coug game in a long time, and that is a very good thing.

Rebounding:

On the boards, Kansas State is an excellent offensive rebounding team and an equally terrible defensive rebounding team. Sound familiar? It should, because our Cougs are in a similar situation. However, the Cougs have been a little better on the offensive glass and on the defensive glass. Look for Washington State's taller guards to crash the boards and get some extra chances, they are going to need them.

Shooting:

Like Wazzu, K-State has struggled to defend the three-point shot. This bodes well for Klay Thompson, because he is deadly once he gets his feet set. However, outside of Klay and maybe Reggie Moore, the Cougs aren't really a team that will take advantage of that, as they are 280th in the country in 3PA per FGA.

Once inside the arc, look for the Cougs to have problems. Kansas State is one of the top teams in the country in 2pt% against, as they allowing just 37.4% of two pointers to fall.

Free throws:

Kansas State likes to foul. They like to foul a lot. So much so that the guys who wrote the Basketball Prospectus Major Conference Preview made it a focal point in their preview:

The Wildcats’ fouling went through the roof last year, as Big 12 opponents averaged more than 26 free throws
per game. No other major-conference team in 2009 could match the Wildcats in terms of frequent fouling.

K-State has kept that hack-happy trend going this year. They are 262nd in the country in opponents' free throw rate. Luckily for them, they offset that by being fifth in the country in free throw rate on the offensive end. This is something that Casto, Moore, and Klay need to exploit. This time around, they need to make sure they convert at a percentage they did through the first six games if the Cougs are going to have a chance.

That's all for now. This will be another tough test for the Cougs. If they are able to pull this one off, it will have huge postseason implications, as the Wildcats look like a potential tournament team early on. Nuss will be back with more tomorrow in the game thread.

On Gonzaga's impressive home record

Dancing Football — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 21:35:38 -0000

Are these folks the reason GU has been so unbeatable at home? Matt Bouldin, Jeremy Pargo, Austin Daye, Dan Dickau, Derek Raivio and friends may have something to say about that.

View full size photo »

It has been well documented that since the McCarthey Athletic Center opened in 2004, the Bulldogs have been nearly unbeatable at home. In the six seasons they have played there, they have lost three times. K2 is a very happy place for Zag fans. There are a lot of other good basketball programs with great homecourts that have not duplicated Gonzaga's success at home.

Taking a look at Gonzaga's schedule reveals a secret to their home success. In six years, the Zags have played three teams that finished the season with a higher Ken Pomeroy ranking:

#33 Gonzaga beat #15 Washington in 2005
#41 Gonzaga beat #29 Saint Joseph's in 2006
#30 Gonzaga lost to #10 Washington State in 2008

That's it. Gonzaga has been the better team (according to Ken Pomeroy ratings) in every other game ever played at K2. The only game that was close to evenly matched was when #55 Gonzaga defeated #57 Washington in 2007. St. Mary's has had the most competitive WCC teams in this time, posting rankings of 51 and 56 in the last two years. Gonzaga was 30 and 7 in those years respectively. Outside of that, WCC teams generally top out around the 100s and bottom out around the 330s.

On top of the conference schedule, Gonzaga's November home games are usually similar to those that have given the Cougar basketball team a 37-0 all time November Friel Court record. The Zags have not been tested much in their time at McCarthey Athletic Center, and they have a record to show it.

Now this is not meant to detract from what the Zags have done over the past six years. They have dominated the West Coast Conference like no other team has dominated a conference in a long time. From 2004-2009 they lost only six regular season conference games overall.. They have had the significantly better team because Mark Few has recruited "high-major" talent to a "mid-major" school.

What this is meant to do is to play down the myth that Gonzaga is somehow unbeatable at home because of a unique advantage that McCarthey Athletic Center provides. Sure, the students there are loud and right on top of the floor, but that can be seen on many campuses across the country. Gonzaga has played better at home, like most teams do. They just have not played as the underdog at K2 very often. The homecourt advantage is less about the arena and more about the team that plays there.

Now what does this mean for the Cougars? Well, they are still an underdog coming in, and it would a good bet to say that Gonzaga will finish the season with a higher Pomeroy ranking. However, they do bring something in to the Kennel that Zag fans rarely see, a solid group of high-major caliber players to match their own. Guys like DeAngelo Casto, Reggie Moore, and Klay Thompson.

OPEN GAME THREAD: WSU vs. San Diego

Dancing Football — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 21:10:08 -0000

The battle for the Great Alaskan Shootout Championship! Remember when this entire tournament used to be on ESPN and the video quality was better than an NES game?

The Starters:

WSU:

Klay Thompson

Reggie Moore

Abe Ludwig

DeAngelo Castro

Marcus Capers

San Diego:

Chris Lewis

Roberto Mafra

Brandon Johnson

Devin Ginty

De'Jon Jackson

This is the first real test of the season for the Cougs. San Diego is probably the better team, having knocked off several big names so far this season. Brandon Johnson is excellent at point guard. He is a game-changer and they type of guy that take over and carry his team to victory.

The Toreros are very small. The starting guards are all under 6'2", and the frontcourt guys are a slim 6'7" and 6'9". The size is a very good matchup for the Cougs. Klay Thompson and Marcus Capers need to use that advantage to get to the free throw line.

San Diego has been very good defensively. They rank 21st in the nation for adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougs are 27th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Something has to give! My guess is that the Cougs perform a little bit better than some of San Diego's other opponents because of their ability to draw fouls and earn free throws. The problem is they will give up that advantage on the other end of the court when they are guarding.

This will be a battle and potentially could be a very close game. If Wazzu is able to emerge victorious, they will have a very solid bullet point for the resume.

OPEN GAME THREAD: The Apple Cup

Dancing Football — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 20:31:47 -0000

Game coverage from around SBN here

Time: 3:30 pm PST

The place: Husky Stadium

TV: FSN Northwest

Radio: Find your local station here. You can also listen via streaming for a fee at wsucougars.com

The Line: Washington by 25

When the Cougs have the ball...

WSU		UW
Pos.	Name (# = Redshirt)	Pos.
X	Jeffrey Solomon (6-0, 195, #Jr.)	DE	Daniel Te'o-Nesheim
F	Gino Simone (5-11, 174, Fr.)	DT	Alameda Ta'amu
LT	Steven Ayers (6-4, 311, #So.)	DT	De'shon Matthews
LG	Zack Williams (6-4, 293, #Jr.)	DE	Darion Jones
C	Kenny Alfred (6-2, 300, #Sr.)	SLB	Mason Foster
RG	Reed Lesuma (6-4, 311, #Sr.)	MLB	Donald Butler
RT	Micah Hannam (6-4, 284, #Jr.)	WLB	Cort Dennison
TE	Skylar Stormo (6-5, 245, #Fr.)	CB	Adam Long
Z	Jared Karstetter (6-4, 203, So.)	SS	Nate Williams
QB	Kevin Lopina (6-3, 234, #Sr.)	FS	Nathan Fellner
RB	Dwight Tardy (5-11, 204, #Sr.)	CB	Desmond Trufant

When the Huskies have the ball...

UW		WSU
Pos.	Name	Pos.	Name (# = Redshirt)
WR	Devin Aguilar	LE	Casey Hamlett (6-3, 250, Jr.)
TE	Kavario Middleton	DT	Bernard Wolfgramm (6-3, 291, #Jr.)
LT	Drew Schaefer	DT	Dan Spitz (6-6, 268, #Fr.)
LG	Nick Wood	RE	Travis Long (6-4, 247, Fr.)
C	Ryan Tolar	SAM	Andy Mattingly (6-4, 255, Sr.)
RG	Senio Kelemete	MIKE	Alex Hoffman-Ellis (6-1, 233, #So.)
RT	Cody Habben	WILL	Hallston Higgins (5-11, 231, Jr.)
QB	Jake Locker	LCB	Aire Justin (5-9, 178, #Jr.)
FB	Paul Homer	SS	Xavier Hicks, Jr. (6-0, 211, #Sr.)
TB	Chris Polk	FS	Jay Matthews (6-1, 205, #Fr.)
WR	Jermaine Kearse	RCB	Terrance Hayward (6-1, 186, #Fr.)

Keys to the Game:

1. Kevin Lopina. He needs to play his best game as a Coug. His best game by far. The Husky defense is vulnerable, and Wazzu will have to take advantage if they want to stay in this thing.

2. Turnovers. This team needs to create turnovers to compete, and score off those turnovers. The Cougs were able to keep it relatively close last week until the defense wore down. WSU will have the same problems again if they don't get themselves off the field with some big plays.

3. Line play. The Cougar offensive line will be without B.J. Guerra, who will miss the game due to a concussion. However, they are healthier than they have been in most games this year. WSU will not have a chance if they are dominated on the line on either side of the ball. As it is in every game, this is crucial.

The Cougs will be going for the first ever WSU three-peat in the Apple Cup today. They are also going for five out of six. We would love it if you would win guys, to help give us something to smile about from this mess of a season.

The Official Thread for Unwarranted Husky/Cougar Bashing

Dancing Football — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 16:28:55 -0000

It's Apple Cup week!

In preparation for yet another meaningful battle between these two proud football programs, I present to you the place for bad jokes, baseless speculation, and what would normally be categorized as "stupid" comments.

Things that are NOT ALLOWED in this thread:

1. Meaningful arguments

2. Evidence to back up your assertions (unless anecdotal or assumptive)

3. Compliments to the other side

4. Homophobic or racist slurs

Everything else is fair game! This thread will be the place where you can finally let loose and say all those fun things that Nuss never lets you say!

Go Cougs! Huck the Fuskies!