Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: U.S. Tennis Is In Dire Straits

Cclogo

Daniel Moroz

Mar 02, 2010 May 17, 2012 60 135

website: Camden Crazies

a fan of

Baltimore Orioles Major League Baseball Team

Baltimore Ravens National Football League Team

rss icon RSSUser Blog

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 26

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

The division winners are all decided, with the #1, 2, 3, 5, 7, and 8 teams taking the crowns, while #'s 4, 6, 9, 10, and 11 still fighting for the last two spots.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Yankees 96 61 CC Sabathia is well behind Justin Verlander in ERA (2.40 vs. 3.00), but is tied for the AL lead with 7 pitcher fWAR.
2 Phillies 98 60 There are 7 NL pitchers with at least 5 fWAR and 5 NL pitchers with at least 5 rWAR; 3 Phillies in each group.
3 Rangers 92 66 CJ Wilson was a reliever two years ago; since then; 425 innings of 3.15 ERA ball and an average of over 5 fWAR a season.
4 Red Sox 88 69 Jacoby Ellsbury had 20 home runs in 1,513 career PA coming into 2011 - he has 31 in only 717 PA this year.
5 Brewers 93 65 Mark Kotsay has gotten 200+ PA for the 6th straight season; in that time he has accumulated a total of -1.6 fWAR.
6 Rays 87 71 Tampa Bay has only gone 7-7 over the last couple weeks, but they've gotten to within a game back of Boston in the Wild Card race.
7 Diamondbacks 92 66 Ryan Roberts is only 2 home runs and 2 steals away from making Arizona the only team in baseball with three 20-20 guys.
8 Tigers 91 67 Miguel Cabrera is having the best offensive season of his career (.341/.447/.579, 175 wRC+), which is saying something.
9 Cardinals 87 71 Octavio Dotel has been great since coming over to St. Louis; 12 K/9, 2 BB/9 - good for a 1.61 FIP and 2.25 xFIP.
10 Angels 86 72 Jered Weaver hasn't been quite as good down the stretch as he was to start the season; 3.71 ERA, 4.55 FIP since August 1st.
11 Braves 89 69 Craig Kimbrel setting the record for saves by a rookie (46) will probably help his case for the Rookie of the Year award.
12 Dodgers 79 78 3 homers in the last 4 games would give Matt Kemp (already hitting a fantastic .324/.400/.581) a 40-40 season.
13 White Sox 77 81 If he doesn't get knocked out in the first inning in his last start, Mark Buerhle should get to 200 IP for the 11th straight year.
14 Giants 84 74 For pitchers with at least 40 IP, Sergio Romo has, by far, the best K/BB ratio in the majors at 13.2.
15 Blue Jays 80 78 Rookie Henderson Alvarez has pitched well over the last month, minimizing free passes (0.8 BB/9) and getting grounders( 56%).

 

Continue reading this post »

0 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 25

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

The Red Sox are barely holding off the Rays in the AL Wild Card race, but 7 games versus the Orioles (instead of versus the Yankees and Blue Jays, like Tampa Bay) gives them an edge above and beyond their 2 game lead.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Yankees 91 60 It's no longer the 20% it was earlier in the season, but the Yankees 14.6% HR/FB ratio is easily the highest in the majors.
2 Phillies 98 53 Raul Ibanez's 19 home runs are second most for the team this year, but he's got just a .309 wOBA overall (and -1.2 fWAR).
3 Red Sox 87 65 It only took 9 games, but Tim Wakefield finally picked up career win number 200 - the 2nd oldest pitcher to ever get there.
4 Rangers 88 65 Ian Kinsler has a .239 BABIP, but still deserves some MVP votes given that he's 5th in the AL with 6.6 position player fWAR.
5 Brewers 90 63 Yovani Gallardo has been on a roll the last month, with a 13 K/9 and a 2.10 xFIP - but also 2.4 HR/9 bringing his ERA up to 3.82.
6 Tigers 89 64 If Jose Valverde saves every one of Detroit's remaining games, he'll tie Eric Gagne for the most saves in a season with 0 blown.
7 Rays 85 67 Johnny Damon's 7.4% walk rate would be the lowest he's had in a season since 1996. Same with the 1.1 fWAR.
8 Cardinals 83 69 Yadier Molina has doubled his usual home run production (13), while also walking less frequently than in any season of his career.
9 Diamondbacks 88 65 Joe Saunders has a 1.6 K/BB ratio in 199 IP this year - the lowest mark for anyone who's tossed that many innings this year.
10 Angels 83 69 27 home runs have helped make Mark Trumbo the most productive hitter in the majors (107 wRC+) with a sub .300 OBP.
11 Braves 87 66 Atlanta is just 22nd in the majors with a .307 wOBA, and they have only 3 players with at least 200 PA that are over even .330.
12 Dodgers 76 76 Over the last month, Clayton Kershaw is 4-0 with a 0.77 ERA, a 1.42 FIP (best in the majors), and a 2.45 xFIP.
13 White Sox 74 78 Including the minors, Brent Lillibridge had 14 home runs in 1,190 PA from '08-10. He has 13 homers in just 216 PA this year.
14 Giants 83 70 Aubrey Huff is no longer last on the team in fWAR! That distinction now belongs to Orlando Cabrera (-0.7 in only 37 games).
15 Blue Jays 77 75 Brett Lawrie has played in only 41 games, but a .420 wOBA has him third on the team in position player fWAR at 2.5.

Continue reading this post »

1 comment  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 24

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

They're not quite out of it at the moment, but do you think the Rays would have liked a 5th Wild Card spot this year?

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Yankees 87 57 I'm not sure if Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia being 2nd and 3rd on the team in starter fWAR (2.5, 2.2) is good or bad.
2 Phillies 94 48 Cliff Lee has allowed a grand total of 3 earned runs in his last 55.2 IP (2 of them on one HR), with a 52-10 K/BB ratio.
3 Red Sox 85 60 Adrian Gonzalez only has 25 home runs this year - not what many expected leaving Petco - but still with a .409 wOBA.
4 Rangers 82 64 Texas' lead has dwindled to just 2.5 games, but their run differential is 90 runs better than LA's.
5 Brewers 85 62 Yuniesky Betancourt is still above replacement level, but it's going to be close at the finish (0.1 fWAR).
6 Rays 80 64 Jeremy Hellickson is posting a nice 2.96 ERA (despite a 4.30 FIP) largely on the strength of a .229 BABIP.
7 Tigers 83 62 Detroit went 49-43 while being outscored in the first half, but they're playing .642 ball after the break.
8 Cardinals 78 67 Two years and only $21 M for Chris Carpenter seems good, given he's averaging over 4.5 fWAR for '09-11.
9 Diamondbacks 85 61 Willie Bloomquist has received 340 PA for the team, and yet they hold an 8.5 game lead in the NL West. You can't explain that.
10 Angels 80 65 Dan Haren is having a quietly great season. He's even passed Jered Weaver in fWAR (up to 6.1).
11 Braves 84 62 Craig Kimbrel's record streak of appearances without allowing a run was just snapped at 38.
12 White Sox 73 71 Chris Sale (10 K/9, 3 BB/9, 50% GB%) has been like Matt Thorton #2 this year (10 K/9, 3 BB/9, 50% GB%).
13 Dodgers 72 72 Jamey Carroll is the only qualified batter in the majors without a home this year; tied a career high with 5 triples though.
14 Reds 71 74 It's only in part-time duty, but Ryan Hanigan has the best K/BB ratio in baseball for a catcher.
15 Blue Jays 73 73 Outside the AL East, no 3rd place team is above .500. The Jays are (now), and are in 4th.

 

Continue reading this post »

4 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 23

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

Enjoy all the day-time Labor Day baseball!

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Yankees 84 53 After a down year with the White Sox in 2008, Nick Swisher has been back in form as a Yankee (3.2, 4.2, and now 4.4 fWAR).
2 Phillies 88 47 Ryan Howard looks like he's going to fail to get to 2 fWAR for the second year in a row. His 5 year extension starts next season.
3 Red Sox 84 54 This has been perhaps the worst full season of Jon Lester's career. He has a 3.05 ERA and a 2.5 K/BB ratio.
4 Rangers 79 61 Michael Young is getting some MVP attention? He's 5th on his own team in fWAR, though 3.6 is his best since 2006.
5 Brewers 83 57 Zack Greinke has missed some time this year, unfortunately, because he's leading the majors with a 2.49 xFIP.
6 Rays 75 63 Desmond Jennings has a decent chance at 10 HR and 20 SB this year, and is at 2.1 fWAR in only 41 games.
7 Diamondbacks 79 60 Paul Goldschimdt hits home runs; 6 in just 102 PA so far this year, but a 33% strike-out rate to go along with them.
8 Cardinals 74 65 It's a good thing they picked Corey Patterson up from the Blue Jays; .178/.196/.267 with 11 K's to 1 walk.
9 Braves 81 57 Jason Heyward's monthly walks rates this year; 12.4%, 12.2%, 11.7%, 8%, 5.6%, and 0% so far in September.
10 Tigers 77 62 Since joining the club, Delmon Young has hit .291/.292/.453, with 3 HR in 20 games after hitting 4 in 84 games with the Twins.
11 Angels 75 64 Mike Trout is showing some unexpected power, with 5 home runs already in only 89 PA. And only 1 stolen base.
12 White Sox 68 68 Adam Dunn, hitting .162/.289/.288, has to go 45 for his next 45 to get up to the .260 he hit last year in Washington.
13 Dodgers 68 70 They've gone 11-2 over the last couple weeks, getting close to that .500 mark (if no closer to 1st place; Arizona also went 11-2).
14 Reds 68 71 Fransisco Cordero's strike-out rate has plummeted to 5.5 K/9, but he's also walking batters much less often than in recent yrs.
15 Blue Jays 69 70 The guy who's pitched the 3rd most innings for the team this year (Jo-Jo Reyes with 110) actually got waived over a month ago.

Continue reading this post »

0 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 22

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

And the Twins finally fall back into last place - getting swept in a four game series with the Orioles (at home, no less) will do that.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Yankees 78 51 Not only is David Robertson leading the AL in strike-out rate at 13.6 K/9, but he's the only guy with 50 IP with 0 HR allowed.
2 Phillies 83 46 Cliff Lee in August: 0.58 ERA, 2.14 FIP. And yet his 2.59 xFIP makes it only his third best month this year.
3 Red Sox 82 51 Jacoby Ellsbury came into 2011 with 20 career home runs in 1,513 PA - he has 23 homers in the 591 PA this year.
4 Rangers 75 59 As a flyball pitcher with a 12.3% HR/FB, Colby Lewis has been taken deep more than any other AL pitcher (1.6 HR/9).
5 Brewers 80 54 Corey Hart has homered 8 times in the last month, getting his wRC+ up to what would be a career high 135.
6 Rays 72 59 James Shields just became the second pitcher in the last 10 years with 10 complete games in a season (CC in '08).
7 Braves 79 54 Brandon Beachy is leading all Braves starters - and all major league rookie starters - with a 4.0 K/BB ratio.
8 Cardinals 69 64 Marc Rzepczynski has done a nice job in relief since coming over from Toronto; 0.82 ERA with a 2.52 xFIP.
9 Angels 72 60 Jerome Williams was very good in his first major league start since 2007; 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 K.
10 Diamondbacks 74 59 David Hernandez's transition to flame-throwing reliever seems to have gone well; 94.5 mph fastball, 9.8 K/9.
11 Tigers 73 59 Justin Verlander - with 20 wins already - has a chance to be the first pitcher since Bob Welch in 1990 with more than 24.
12 Reds 66 66 Only 4 Reds - Votto, Phillips, Bruce, and Stubbs - have more than 325 PA this year; fewer than any other team.
13 White Sox 65 65 A 3.24 xFIP from their pitchers in August has Chicago above .500 and in second place in the AL Central.
14 Blue Jays 66 66 Jose Bautista leads the majors with 106 walks; also with 87 unintentional walks (more than all but 3 guys have total BB).
15 Mets 62 68 Chris Capuano's complete game 13 K, 2 H, 0 BB shutout recently was the highest game score (96) of the season.

 

Continue reading this post »

2 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 21

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

The Tigers finally climb into the top 10, joining the other division leaders.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Yankees 76 48 New York leads the league in quite a few offensive categories - including stolen bases (an AL tops 123).
2 Red Sox 76 49 Daniel Bard is the only pitcher in the majors (min. 50 IP) with at least 9 K/9, less than 3 BB/9, and a GB% over 50%.
3 Phillies 81 43 Hunter Pence seems to be adjusting to playing for a good team just fine; .307/.386/.520 since coming to Philly.
4 Rangers 73 54 Ian Kinsler has tied Brandon Phillips for the second most 20-20 season by a second-baseman (3; Joe Morgan has 4).
5 Brewers 75 52 Milwaukee is 22-3 in their last 25 games, and has opened up the largest division lead in the majors (8.5 games).
6 Braves 75 52 For Jose Costanza (.360/.407/.480 in 84 PA), major league pitching has been as tough to handle as a game of Frogger.
7 Cardinals 66 60 Since the start of June, Albert Pujols has a .434 wOBA. And he's also now leading the NL in home runs, with 31.
8 Rays 68 56 Ben Zobrist is back in MVP form himself after a slightly down 2010 - he's on pace to cross the 8 fWAR line again like in '09.
9 Diamondbacks 69 57 Great bat (.299/.371/.548) and glove (+13 UZR) have made Justin Upton the NL's fWAR leader (6.2).
10 Tigers 67 58 Doug Fister has only walked 2 batters in 21.2 IP since getting traded to Detroit - though he's also hit two guys.
11 Blue Jays 64 62 Despite getting into just 39 games, back-up catcher Jose Molina is third on the team in position player fWAR (1.4).
12 Reds 61 65 MLB ERA leader Johnny Cueto (1.89) has the lowest BABIP in baseball (.225) and the 7th lowest HR/FB rate (5.8%).
13 White Sox 62 63 Mark Buehrle is on pace for his 11th straight 200+ IP season - the most for any hurler since Greg Maddux's 14 in a row ('88-'01).
14 Mets 60 65 David Wright is hitting .292/.357/.469 since coming off the DL, but it's a .285 wOBA Aug. following the .479 July.
15 Angels 68 59 Maybe with the recent call-up of Hank Conger, the Jeff Mathis (.176/.225/.254) days my finally be waning in LA.

Continue reading this post »

2 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 20

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

All 8 teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today are in the top 13.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Yankees 72 46 AJ Burnett has seen his ERA go up each month this year, topping out at 9.58 in August thus far.
2 Red Sox 73 45 Boston position player have been great, leading the league in hitting (.354 wOBA) & fielding (+37 UZR).
3 Phillies 78 41 Ryan Madson... still doing a nice job as the closer (22 for 23 in saves, and a 2.16 ERA and 2.15 FIP).
4 Rangers 68 52 Alex Ogando hasn't exactly hit a wall as some may have expected; ~3.55 FIP through June, and ~3.27 FIP since.
5 Brewers 69 51 Yuniesky Betancourt has followed up a .322 wOBA July with a .408 wOBA (and .405 BABIP) August.
6 Cardinals 64 56 Jake Westbrook has the highest groundball rate in the majors (60.9%) - his best since '05.
7 Braves 70 50 In the AL Central, Atlanta's record would be good for a 5.5 game lead. In the NL East, they're 9 games out.
8 Diamondbacks 67 53 Your NL wins leaders, with 15, are Roy Halladay (expected) and Ian Kennedy (not quite expected).
9 Rays 64 55
 Lowest ERA amongst AL closers? Kyle Farnsworth's 1.96. Not too shabby for $2.6 M, plus there's a club option for '12.
10 Mets 58 61 Jason Isringhausen is still sitting on 299 career saves. He has 6 this year, to go along with his -0.3 fWAR.
11 Reds 59 61 Joey Votto has the highest career BABIP (.355) amongst active players with at least 2,000 PA.
12 Blue Jays 60 59 Brandon Morrow's still leading AL starters in strike-out rate, by a lot. His 10.1 K/9 is well ahead of Michael Pineda's 9.1 K/9.
13 Tigers 64 55 Victor Martinez is hitting above his career level (123 wRC+ vs. 121), but is only at 1.8 fWAR. DH'ing a lot < catching a lot.
14 Angels 65 55 Ervin Santana's last four starts; 35.1 IP (3 CG), 3 ER, 30 K, 6 BB, with a no-hitter mixed in.
15 White Sox 59 60 For the second year in a row, Alexei Ramirez is leading AL shortstops in UZR, at +8.2 runs.

Continue reading this post »

0 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 19

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

The Angels and Diamondbacks are keeping things interesting for the Rangers and Giants in the western division, and in the NL it seems like the better team might be the one that's currently in second place.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Yankees 69 44 Curtis Granderson has scored 100 runs already, and is on pace for 143 - the most in the majors since A-Rod's 143 in 2007.
2 Red Sox 70 43 Dustin Pedroia has almost caught up to Jose Bautista in the fWAR race (6.7 to 6.9), as well as his own career high (6.8).
3 Phillies 74 40 Most wins for a Philly starter over the last month? That would be Vance Worley (4-0). Go figure.
4 Rangers 64 51 Mike Napoli is tied for the major league lead in homers amongst "catchers" with 18 despite only 255 total PA.
5 Cardinals 62 53 Albert Pujols has only walked more than 9.6% of the time in one month this year - only failed twice at that for 2004-2010.
6 Brewers 65 50 Zack Greinke has the largest gap between his ERA (4.21) and xFIP (2.30) in the majors (min. 100 IP).
7 Braves 66 49 Dan Uggla's 28 game hitting streak, during which he's homered 12 times, has him up from a .568 OPS to a .716.
8 Diamondbacks 62 52 After a slightly down 2010, Justin Upton is hitting .295/.371/.541 with 5.2 fWAR this year. Not bad for a 23 year-old.
9 Mets 56 57 Despite only 77 home runs, the Mets have been one of the better hitting teams in the majors (105 wRC+ is 5th).
10 Reds 55 59 Man, if Aroldis Chapman ever learns to throw strikes... 98 mph average fastball, 14 K/9, but 7 BB/9.
11 Angels 63 52 Peter Bourjos has the great glove (+29 UZR/150 career), but could be solid with the bat too if his above average BABIP persists.
12 Rays 59 54 Matt Joyce in April/May: 1.066 OPS with a .416 BABIP. Matt Joyce since: .613 OPS with a .218 BABIP.
13 Blue Jays 58 56 Three games into his major league career, Brett Lawrie has already homered and is hitting .455/.455/.727.
14 Tigers 61 53 Max Scherzer's K/9 has dropped off for a fourth straight season (7.5 now), but he's also improved his control (2.8 BB/9).
15 Giants 63 52 Carlos Beltran in San Francisco: .244/.261/.356 with an 11:1 strike-out to walk ratio and a hurt hand.

Continue reading this post »

2 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 18

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

With the trade deadline having come and now gone, it'll be interesting to see if any of the players a team added ends up having a significant impact down the stretch.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

 

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Yankees 63 42 The Yankees didn't make any deals, but could still pick up Wandy Rodriguez if/when he makes it through waivers.
2 Red Sox 65 40 Acquired Erik Bedard and Josh Fields from the Mariners, and Mike Aviles from the Royals.
3 Phillies 67 39 Acquired Hunter Pence from the Astros.
4 Rangers 61 47 Acquired Koji Uehara and Nick Green from the Orioles, and Mike Adams from the Padres.
5 Cardinals 57 50 Acquired Rafael Furcal from the Dodgers, and Edwin Jackson, Marc Rzepczynski, Octavio Dtoel, and Corey Patterson from Toronto.
6 Braves 63 45 Acquired Michael Bourn from the Astros, and Wil Nieves from the Brewers (for cash).
7 Brewers 59 49 Acquired Jerry Hairston from Washington, Felipe Lopez from Tampa Bay (for cash), and Fransisco Rodriguez from the Mets.
8 Mets 55 52 Acquired Zack Wheeler from the Giants, and two players to be named later from the Brewers.
9 Giants 61 46 Acquired Orlando Cabrera from the Indians, Carlos Beltran from the Mets, and Jeff Keppinger from the Astros.
10 Angels 59 49 The looked for a reliever, but ended up standing pat, only two games back in the AL West.
11 Diamondbacks 58 49 Acquired Brad Ziegler from the A's, Jason Marquis from the Nationals, and Ryan Langerhans from the M's (for cash).
12 Blue Jays 54 53 Acquired Colby Rasmus, Trevor Miller, Brian Tallet, and PJ Walters from St. Louis, and Mark Teahen from the White Sox.
13 Reds 52 55 Acquired Bill Rhinehart and Chirs Manno from the Nationals.
14 Rays 55 51 They held on to Johnny Damon, Casey Kotchman, and BJ Upton, amongst others, despite being 10 games out in the East.
15 Tigers 56 51 Acquired Doug Fister and David Pauley from the M's, and Wilson Betemit from the Royals.


Continue reading this post »

0 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 17

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

No AL Central teams in the top 15 now. Who know who'll pull that one out at the end?

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Red Sox 61 37 Seems like Andrew Miller hasn't quite solved his control problems; 6.4 BB/9 (to just 4.7 K/9) since his call-up.
2 Yankees 58 40 Since coming back from the DL, Derek Jeter is hitting .318/.384/.455 (with a .392 BABIP) - up to a .313 wOBA on the season.
3 Phillies 63 36 Domonic Brown has shown some nice plate discipline as a rookie this year (11.9% walk rate, 15.5% K rate).
4 Rangers 58 43 Despite only getting into 59 games, Mike Napoli is already at 2.2 fWAR thanks to 13 home runs in 209 PA.
5 Cardinals 53 47 Yadier Molina's going to mess up his consistency; between 6-8 HR per year from '05-'10, and 7 already this season.
6 Braves 59 42 The contract doesn't like amazing, but Derek Lowe is on pace for his third straight 2.6+ fWAR year as a Brave.
7 Giants 58 43 Madison Bumgarner has upped his strike-out rate to 7.9 K/9 this year, and he's 5th in the NL in fWAR at 3.9.
8 Brewers 54 48 After a solid 2010 campaign (3.4 fWAR), Casey McGehee has fallen off a cliff this year (only 5 HR, -0.7 fWAR).
9 Mets 50 50 Over the last month, Jonathon Niese has a 4.7 K/BB ratio and a 2.52 xFIP (5th best in the majors over that span).
10 Blue Jays 50 51 Since being recalled from Triple-A, Travis Snider is hitting .292 with a .514 SLG. Also, 23 K's to 1 BB in 17 games.
11 Angels 54 47 In their last 15 total games, Dan Haren, Jered Weaver, and Ervin Santana have walked a combined 81/18 K to BB ratio.
12 Diamondbacks 54 47 David Hernandez has done a nice job as closer since JJ Putz got hurt; 0.00 ERA, 0.94 FIP, 1.92 xFIP and 7 for 7 on saves.
13 Rays 52 47 3.17 ERA aside, Jeremy Hellickson hasn't been quite as great as some expected going into the season (4.29 FIP).
14 Reds 49 51 Dontrelle Willis is back in the majors, and getting a bunch of groundballs (57.1% GB rate) - plus a sub 7 walk rate (4.2 BB/9).
15 Rockies 48 53 Derek Jeter fWAR through age 26 season - 24.3. Troy Tulowitzki is on pace for ~25 fWAR through 2011, his age 26 season.

Continue reading this post »

3 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 16

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

The first four teams are pretty firmly ensconced at the top of the rankings.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Red Sox 56 36 Jacoby Ellsbury's line (.310/.370/.493) is being buoyed by a .340 BABIP, but he's also displaying decent power (13 HR).
2 Yankees 54 37 CC Sabathia has been dominant recently - over the last month he's 6-0 with a 1.16 ERA, 1.62 FIP, and 2.09 xFIP.
3 Phillies 58 35 Cliff Lee is the only pitcher in the majors with both a home run and a stolen base; each year since '00 there's been a max of one.
4 Rangers 54 41 Since giving up 5 runs in 0.2 IP on July 2nd, Derek Holland has thrown two straight complete game shutouts.
5 Braves 55 39 Rookie Freddie Freeman (.273/.347/.454) has been the second best hitting Braves regular this year with his .351 wOBA.
6 Cardinals 50 44 Fernando Salas seems to have taken to closing well enough; 17 saves in 20 chances, a 2.56 ERA, and a 4.2 K/BB ratio.
7 Giants 54 41 Pablo Sandoval isn't just having a bounceback season with the bat; he's also posting a career best +11 UZR.
8 Brewers 50 45 Zack Greinke is striking out almost a third of the batters he's faced (30.9%) - the highest mark in the majors (min. 75 IP).
9 Mets 47 46 Led by Carlos Beltran (6th in the NL at 12.9%), the Mets have the best walk rate in the league this season (9.3%).
10 Rays 50 42 BJ Upton is leading the team in both homers (15) and steals (22), but is only 5th amongst position players in fWAR.
11 Angels 51 44 Bobby Abreu passed R. Sandberg and A. Dawson in career fWAR this season. He'll likely go by Bobby Bonds (63.3) too.
12 Blue Jays 47 48 Rajai Davis has the lowest OBP in baseball for a player with more than 10 stolen bases (.261, 25 steals).
13 Diamondbacks 50 44 Arizona is the only team in the majors with three players in double digits in homers and steals (Upton, Roberts, Young).
14 Reds 46 48 A decent offense and one of the majors' best defensive units has the Reds as the top sub .500 team.
15 White Sox 46 48 Edwin Jackson is having himself the best season of his career, showing some improved control (2.8 BB/9).

Continue reading this post »

2 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 15

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

The Angels fly into the top 10, while Baltimore makes it's first appearance in the bottom two.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Red Sox 54 35 We know about the vaunted offense, but the Red Sox also have the majors' highest UZR at +28 runs.
2 Yankees 52 35 Alex Rodriguez potentially being out for a while hurts, but he's already given the team 4 fWAR - more than the 3.8 from 2010.
3 Phillies 56 34 The Phillies go into the break with the best record in baseball, and as the only team on pace to win over 100 games (101).
4 Rangers 50 41 Despite a low batting average - largely thanks to his .250 BABIP - Ian Kinsler (4 fWAR) has a case as an All-Star snub.
5 Braves 54 37 Craig Kimbrel has the lowest FIP (1.44) in baseball (min. 30 IP). Ton of K's (13.7 per nine) and improved control (3.5 BB/9).
6 Brewers 48 43 Prince Fielder leads the NL with 72 RBI, but you could argue that he's only the Brewers' third most valuable player this year.
7 Cardinals 48 43 St. Louis still has the best offense in the NL, by a fair margin. Their 111 wRC+ is well ahead of Milwaukee's 104.
8 Rays 49 40 They'd be a game up in the AL Central, and yet they're as far out of the Wild Card (5 games) as Chicago is in that division.
9 Giants 51 40 Aubrey Huff has the most plate appearances on the team (369). He also has the lowest fWAR (-1).
10 Angels 49 42 LA has the best record in baseball over the last two weeks (11-2), and are just a game back in the West.
11 Mets 46 44 RA Dickey leads the team in innings pitched (114.2), and has been a solid contributor in the middle of the rotation (3.88 xFIP).
12 Diamondbacks 49 42 Daniel Hudson has done a nice job on both sides of the ball. His 0.8 fWAR (.333/.351/.417) with the bat is tops for NL pitchers.
13 Reds 45 46 Something tells me Edinson Volquez (5.93 ERA, 5.8 BB/9) won't be getting any Rookie of the Year votes this year.
14 Tigers 48 43 Outfielder Andy Dirks has shown a fair amount of pop since being called up in May (6 homers in 123 PA).
15 Blue Jays 44 47 Ricky Romero strike-out and walk rates, and xFIPs the last two years; 7.46/7.43, 3.51/3.51, 3.64/3.65.

Continue reading this post »

1 comment  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 14

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

The Indians have finally fallen out of the top half of the rankings, while the Mets moved above the jump.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Yankees 50 31 Over the last three years, Brett Gardner's +42 UZR/150 in left-field is, by far (~20 runs), the best of any player at any position.
2 Red Sox 48 34 Dustin Pedroia striking out more than he has before, but also walking a lot more (15.9%). Thus the .394 OPB with a .278 BA.
3 Phillies 53 31 Over the last two weeks, Halladay, Lee, and Hamels have given up a combined 14 runs - that's 2 fewer than COL allowed yesterday.
4 Rangers 44 40 CJ Wilson has been even better this year (3.38 xFIP) than last. Perhaps his success will help get Neftali Feliz out of the pen too.
5 Brewers 45 39 Yovani Gallardo started out the year having trouble punching out batters, but over the past month his K/9 is up to 9.0.
6 Cardinals 45 39 David Freese coming back has helped offset the loss of Pujols somewhat - he's hitting .381/.435/.429 since returning.
7 Braves 49 35 The Braves' pitching staff has taken over the top spot in the majors in FIP and xFIP, largely due to their outstanding bullpen.
8 Reds 42 42 At age 35, Ramon Hernandez is in the midst of a career year (.307/.365/.503) while sharing time behind the plate.
9 Rockies 41 42 Jorge de la Rosa hasn't pitched since the end of May, but he's still second on the team in pitching fWAR (1.4).
10 Rays 46 37 Evan Longoria's line (.245/.336/.474) is being kept down by his .247 BABIP, but he's been his usual awesome self otherwise.
11 Tigers 44 40 Phil Coke's transition to the rotation hasn't gone so well - he's 1-8 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.2 K/BB - so he's going back to the pen.
12 Mets 41 42 Over the last week, the Mets are hitting .332/.398/.491 as a team, led by Jose Reyes' .579/.669/.789 line.
13 Diamondbacks 45 39 It's a little surprising to see neither Daniel Hudson nor Ian Kennedy selected to the All-Star game. Both have been very good.
14 Blue Jays 40 44 How did the Jays lock Yunel Escobar (.289/.363/.440, 2.5 fWAR already) up for only $5 M a year for 2012-13?
15 Giants 48 36 Ryan Vogelsong's All-Star selection has drawn mixed reviews, but his 2.5 brWAR is above teammate Tim Lincecum's.

Continue reading this post »

12 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 13

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

The Cardinals continue to fall with Albert Pujols out, while the Braves move into the top 10.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Red Sox 44 32 Despite a repeat of 2010's 3.90 ERA, Jonathan Papelbon has turned things around after a couple years of decline - his K/BB ratio up to 6.7 this season.
2 Yankees 44 31 A third straight season with a declining strike-out rate, but CC Sabathia just keeps chugging along with fewer walks and more groundballs.
3 Phillies 48 30 Guess it's Shane Victorino's turn to take the role as the team's top position player, as his 3.8 fWAR is twice that of any other Phillie.
4 Brewers 43 35 The Brewers have started opening up a real lead in the NL Central, in part because they're the only team in the division with a winning interleague play record.
5 Rangers 41 37 Adrian Beltre's BABIP went from high in 2010 (.331) to low in 2011 (.248), but he's still got the great glove (+8 UZR) and the pop (14 home runs) to keep his value up.
6 Cardinals 41 37 Jamie Garcia has done a nice job building on a solid rookie reason, improving in virtually every facet of his game. He's the one currently leading that rotation.
7 Reds 40 38 Since 2006, the major league leaders in wins are Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Justing Verlander, Dan Haren, Josh Beckett, and ... Bronson Arroyo. Nice company.
8 Braves 44 34 Jonny Venters is the only pitcher in the majors with at least 40 IP who hasn't given up a home run. Makes sense given, his absurd 80.2% groundball rate.
9 Tigers 41 36 Alex Avila (.303/.373/.545, 2.7 fWAR) is likely deserving of being the AL's starting catcher for the All-Star game, even given the assist of a .365 BABIP.
10 Rockies 38 38 Carlos Gonzalez's power and BABIP have fallen off this year, not terribly unexpectedly (the latter, at least), but he has upped his walk rate to an above average 9%.
11 Diamondbacks 43 35 Chris Young has done a nice job cutting his strike-out rate in recent years, from 31% to 25% to 21% this season, while still managing to up his ISO.
12 Rays 43 34 James Shields' three consecutive complete games has moved him passed the usual suspects (Doc has 5) into the major league lead in the category.
13 Blue Jays 38 39 Four Jays have recorded a save this year. Three of them (Frank Fransisco, Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel) have the team's three worst ERAs and FIPs out of the pen.
14 Indians 40 35 Former top prospect turned mild disappointment Carlos Carrasco has done a nice job for Cleveland this year (3.62 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 3.70 xFIP).
15 White Sox 38 40 Remember when it seemed like Paul Konerko was on the decline? He hit 39 home runs last year, ans on pace to approach or even pass that this year.

 

 

Continue reading this post »

6 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 12

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

Philadelphia claims the spot as the NL's top team, while Minnesota finally moves out of the cellar.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Red Sox 42 28

Adrian Gonzalez in April: a perfectly decent .314/.379/.457 with one home run. Adrian Gonzalez since then: .367/.419/.689 with 14 home runs.
2
 Yankees 40 29 Alex Rodriguez is quietly having a fine season, with 3.4 fWAR. He might be able to move into 16th place on the all-time position player list this year.
3 Phillies 45 27 The starters have the major's best xFIP at 2.91. They were #1 in 2010 too... at 3.66. St. Louis was first in 2009, at 3.83. Can the Phillies keep it below 3 all year?
4 Cardinals 39 33 Albert Pujols has the 7th lowest strike-out rate in the majors at 9%. He has more home runs (17) than the six players ahead of him combined.
5 Rangers 38 34 Josh Hamilton's hitting well (.286/.346/.483) but a drop off in his HR/FB% and BABIP have that paling in comparison to 2010's .359/.411/.633.
6 Brewers 40 32 Ryan Braun is second on the team in home runs (15, behind Fielder and just ahead of Weeks), but at least he's leading them in stolen bases (16).
7 Diamondbacks 39 33 Trading Mark Reynolds (0.3 fWAR) for David Hernandez (0.6 fWAR, 9.8 K.9 out of the pen) seems to be working out pretty well for Arizona.
8 Rockies 35 35 In just his second season, Jhoulys Chacin is leading the Colorado rotation in wins (8), IP (93), ERA (2.81), xFIP (3.19), fWAR (1.5) and brWAR (2.8).
9 Reds 37 35 Not only is Miguel Cairo still in the majors, but he's actually producing (1.0 fWAR). His .318 wOBA is higher than, among others, Derek Jeter, Adam Dunn, and Ichiro.
10 Tigers 38 33 Over the last three years, only Roy Halladay has accumulated more fWAR than Justin Verlander's 17.6, Dude throws a ton of high quality innings.
11 Blue Jays 36 35 Adam Lind has gone deep 4 times in the last week, giving him 15 on the year. He's looking more like the guy from 2009 than the one who disappointed in 2010.
12 Braves 39 33 Dan Uggla has 9 home runs, but a .251 wOBA thanks to his .194 BABIP. No batter with even 4 homers has hit so poorly overall.
13 Indians 38 31 Travis Hafner is back, after missing the last month. When he went on the DL, he was batting .345/.409/.549 (with the help of a .415 BABIP) - his best line since '06.
14 Rays 38 33 What happened to Wade Davis' strike-out rate? It's fallen from 6.1 K/9 to 4.3 K/9 this year, and batters are making better contact - especially on the breaking stuff.
15 Mets 35 36 Now that he's stopped running, Carlos Beltran seems like he'll hold onto the top spot amongst base-stealers (min. 200 SB) with an 88.2% success rate for a while.

 

 

Continue reading this post »

2 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 11

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

The Cardinals are finally knocked out of the #1 spot after a lengthy run there, while the Indians continue to fall.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Red Sox 38 26 Boston's offense was the best in the majors over the last week, with a team line of .330/.414/.583, led by Dustin Pedroia's .588 wOBA.
2 Yankees 35 27 Jeff wrote last week that Curtis Granderson was this season's Jose Buatista; and the Yankee is just behind with the Blue Jay for the major league lead in homers with 20.
3 Cardinals 38 28 Kyle Lohse is quietly having the best season of his career; working around a low K rate by not walking anybody (1.8 BB/9) and getting groundballs.
4 Rangers 36 30 By virtue of his record (7-0) and ERA (2.10), there's a distinct chance that Alexi Ogando ends up being the AL's All-Star game starter this year.
5 Phillies 39 26 Chase Utley has more stolen bases (3) than home runs (2) this season, after having his power diminish a little in 2010. You'd think the speed would go first.
6 Brewers 37 28 Prince Fielder now has 19 home runs on the season, after already knocking 8 out in June - half of the Brewers total for the month.
7 Reds 34 32 Ever since his rookie season, Johnny Cueto's strike-out rate has been trending downwards, but he's improved his control and dropped his home run rate as well.
8 Braves 37 28 Tommy Hanson has stepped up his game this year, now striking out over a batter an inning (9.6 K/9), even with a fastball that's dipped in velocity a bit.
9 Blue Jays 32 33 How long will Kyle Drabek be able to hand on to a major league rotation spot while walking more batters than he strikes out (0.9 K/BB)?
10 Diamondbacks 35 30 Kelly Johnson is continuing to display the power he showed in '10, but a drop in walk rate and one of the NL's highest strike-out rates has made him only an average hitter.
11 Tigers 35 29 The Tigers have caught up with the Indians in the Central, in part with the help of a Brennan Boesch hot streak and Miguel Cabrera being Miguel Cabrera.
12 Rockies 31 33 Ubaldo Jimenez looks to be getting back in the swing of things, with a 2.06 FIP and 2.96 xFIP in the last month (though he is only 1-3 to show for it).
13 Indians 34 28 The Indians have been outscored 80-41 in the last couple weeks, as the starting rotation - which seemed like it might be the team's undoing - has been beat up on.
14 Rays 34 30 Johnny Damon's walk rate this year has been almost cut in half, but he has reached base in 36 straight games - tending to draw a free pass in games with no hits.
15 Marlins 32 31 For a third straight season, Ricky Nolasco's strike-out rate has fallen over a full K per nine. And yet his ERA is trending downwards, as his xFIP stays steady.

Continue reading this post »

5 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Oh, How The Mighty Have Fallen

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Player Profiles on Beyond the Box Score

Chone Figgins was one of the league's better players when he was in LA, largely on the strength of good plate discipline, an above average BABIP, and good defensive numbers at third-base. The Mariners rewarded him with a four-year, $36 M contract, and things... have not gone so well.

Figgins hit just .259/.340/.307 last year, with an inauspicious move to second-base (around -11 runs across the different metrics). Quite a down season; reminiscent of his 2006 for the Angels. Figgins bounced back after that one to post a 4 fWAR in 2007, but that kind of improvement seems unlikely this year.

Instead, things have actually gotten worse. His walk rate has been more than cut in half (to just 5%) as he's chasing more pitches out of the strike-zone, and a .211 BABIP - which is lower than it "should" be, but goes along with a declining line-drive rate - is keeping his line at .185/.227/.245. Now back at third, at least he's not giving up a ton of runs with his glove, but his -1.2 fWAR is the worst mark in the majors. That's quite a tumble from the 6.9 fWAR he had in 2009, but has Figgins fallen off more than any other player in the last couple years?

Continue reading this post »

4 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 10

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

The Indians fall from the top few spots for the first time in a while, and the Marlins fall some as well. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks keep climbing.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Cardinals 35 25 In the last week, Albert Pujols has hit .444/.545/1.074 with 5 home runs (two of the walk-off variety). He's accumulated 1.1 of his 1.9 seasonal fWAR. Pretty good.
2 Rangers 33 26 Elvis Andrus has added an above average bat (106 wRC+) to his plus glove and good speed (league leading 19 stolen bases) so far this year.
3 Yankees 32 24 #3 and #4 on the team in pitching fWAR are relievers Mariano Rivera and David Robertson. And #2 is Bartolo Colon. Nice to have CC Sabathia's 2.5 leading the way.
4 Red Sox 32 26 David Ortiz is having a great season, cutting his strike-out more than in half (28% to 12%) and hitting .325/.392/..594 - one of the best lines in the majors this year.
5 Phillies 34 24 Number one, two, and three in the NL in K/BB ratio are Roy Halladay (6.9), Cliff Lee (4.7) and Cole Hamels (4.6). For xFIP, you just need to flip Lee and Hamels.
6 Brewers 32 26 Carlos Gomez is still striking out a lot, but he's shown some added pop this year to go along with his excellent defense in center. Still a below average hitter, but better.
7 Indians 33 23 The pitching staff has fallen back to the middle of the pack, as their ERA (3.95) and FIP (3.92) now match the xFIP (3.96) they've had all year.
8 Blue Jays 29 29 Brandon Morrow has the best FIP (min. 40 IP) in the league (2.07) and the highest strike-out rate by far (11.7 K/9). And a 5.11 ERA. Thanks .368 BABIP & 62.9% LOB%.
9 Reds 30 29 Jay Bruce's 17 home runs lead the NL, but his 1.9 fWAR is only 4th on the team behind Joey Votto (3.2), Drew Stubbs (2.5), and Brandon Phillips (2.1).
10 Diamondbacks 33 26 An average to slightly above pitching staff, an average to slightly below offense, and one of the better defensive unit around has put Arizona into the race in the West.
11 Rockies 27 30 Of all the top strikeout guys in baseball this year (min. 150 PA, K% over 30), Chris Iannetta's power and patience have made him the best hitter with a .377 wOBA.
12 Braves 32 27 The rotation has been very good; the pen has easily been tops in baseball. They're the only one with an xFIP under 3, almost a full win ahead of the #2 pen.
13 Athletics 27 32 Trevor Cahill has upped his strikeout rate significantly this year, but is still putting up an ERA (2.65) well below his FIP (3.74), though closer to his xFIP (3.31)
14 Tigers 30 27 Sometimes it's easy to forget that Miguel Cabrera is only 28 years old. He's hitting .313/.436/.587 this year, and is up to 39 career fWAR already.
15 Marlins 31 25 Gaby Sanchez (.321/.394/.520 and 2.4 fWAR) has put himself into that top echelon of major league first-baseman so far this season.

 

 

Continue reading this post »

2 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 9

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

The Diamondbacks, now leading the NL West, move into the top half of the rankings. The problems the other teams in that division have, maybe Arizona really does have a solid chance at a play-off berth this year.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Cardinals 31 22 Kyle Lohse (2.13 ERA, 1.9 fWAR) is doing a lot to help cover for the absences of Adam Wainwright this year, has what would be a career low walk rate so far (1.7 BB/9).
2 Indians 31 18 Three more home runs for Asdrubal Cabrera in the last week gets him to 10 on the year. How much of this is a new level of power for the shortstop?
3 Phillies 33 19 Chase Utley comes back, and suddenly the Phils start scoring over 6 runs per game. Largely a coincidence, but Wilson Valdez -> Utley is quite an upgrade at second-base.
4 Red Sox 29 22 Carl Crawford is heating up - wOBA over .600 in the last week - and the Red Sox suddenly have one of the AL's best offenses.
5 Yankees 27 23 Russell Martin is having quite the bounce-back season with 9 home runs already. He should pass his 2009 & 2010 fWAR totals before long (at 1.9 now).
6 Rangers 27 25 Alex Ogando is going to see some regression with his .210 BABIP, but there's still enough there for him to be a solid pitcher (3.73 FIP & xFIP)
7 Brewers 28 24 Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo, sure. But how about Chris Nerveson? 4.20 ERA, but a 3.16 FIP and a 3.35 xFIP.  He's transitioned well from the pen to the rotation since '09.
8 Reds 27 26 The bats have tailed off a bit lately. Joey Votto's ISO has dropped almost 100 point since last year, though he has flipped his K/BB from 0.7 to 1.4.
9 Blue Jays 26 26 Jose Bautista as #1 on the team in fWAR is easy. But guess who's #2? That would be Corey Patterson, at 1.6. .355 BABIP won't last, but dude's posted a .350 wOBA so far.
10 Marlins 30 20 Mike Stanton has started flashing that monster power more recently, with 4 bombs in the last couple weeks. He's moved into a tie for 3rd in the NL with 11.
11 Braves 29 24 Dan Uggla (.192) and Jason Heyward (.232) have suffered from two of the league's lowest BABIPs - but the latter has been an above average anyway.
12 Rockies 25 26 Todd Helton's walk rate has fallen dramatically (from ~14% to less than 10%), but he's made up for it with more power than he's shown in years.
13 Athletics 26 27 A's starters have given up fewer home runs this year overall (18) than have been hit by Jose Bautista. They have the highest ground ball rate in the AL.
14 Diamondbacks 28 24 Outfielder Gerardo Parra has the best UZR in the majors at any position this year, at +10.4, and he's done a nice job getting on base (.341 OBP).
15 Rays 27 24 Casey Kotchman has been a 1.3 fWAR player for Tampa Bay this year, but what happens when his .387 BABIP moves towards his career .274 mark?

 

Continue reading this post »

3 comments  |  1 recs | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 8

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

The Red Sox finally break through above the jump, switching sections with the Royals. The #1 club stays the same for yet another week - we'll see how long the Cardinals can hold off the Indians.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Cardinals 27 20 Albert Pujols hasn't hit a home run in a month? No problem. The Cardinals lead the NL in scoring even during that span, as everyone from Yadier Molina to Nick Punto has produced at the plate.
2 Indians 28 15 The Indians have 7 position players with at least 1 fWAR - most in the majors. It's been a team effort putting together baseball's best record, led by Asdrubal Cabrera and his (already) career high 9 home runs.
3 Yankees 24 20 Take away Curtis Granderson's 16 home runs - good for second in the majors - and the Yankees still have a longball edge over every other team. That's made them the AL's best offense despite a .274 BABIP.
4 Phillies 28 17 Perhaps the return of Chase Utley will help jump-start one of the league's worst offenses. Which is kind of scary, given that when the Phillies score even just 2 or 3 runs, they're 11-6.
5 Reds 25 21 The pitching still looks a little shaky - has Travis Wood really been the team's most valuable starter? - but the position players can not only slug but help out with run prevention as well.
6 Rangers 23 23 Josh Hamilton is coming back, and just in time. The Rangers' offense has struggled recently, and the pitching staff has been fortunate to give up as few runs as they have (they have the majors' largest FIP - ERA).
7 Blue Jays 23 22 Maybe Aaron Hill (0 HR after years of 36 and 26) is just loaning Jose Bautista his power. 70+ homers between the two of them would still be quite good for each, after all, even split 60-40.
8 Brewers 23 23 Zack Greinke is back, and the team is on a roll - showcasing perhaps the league's best pitching over the past couple weeks. Plus, they have the league's best offense, led by Jonathan Lucroy's 3 home runs (and .407 BABIP).
9 Red Sox 24 21 Carl Crawford has taken a lot of flak, but Dustin Pedroia hasn't hit a ton either and his strike-outs are way up. Luckily Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis have been two of the league's best hitters.
10 Braves 26 22 Eric Hinske is leading the team in wRAA. Joe Mather is second. Their combined BABIP of close to .500 will surely come down - probably directly transferring to Dan Uggla (.197 BABIP).
11 Rockies 23 21 Huston Street is 14 for 16 on saves, and yet has a 4.85 FIP and -0.2 fWAR. Only closer with 10+ saves to be below replacement level so far (by that metric). But hey, Jason Giambi hit 4 HR in 11 AB last week.
12 Marlins 26 18 Losing Josh Johnson hurts, but Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco can help cover the loss. They just need some help from the offense, and Javier Vazquez's recent shutout not being a complete fluke would be nice.
13 Athletics 22 24 Of pitchers with at least 5 starts, Gio Gonzalez has the A's highest FIP... at 3.22. Former prospect Brandon McCarthy (2.0 fWAR) has made the loss of Dallas Braden seem not so severe.
14 Tigers 22 23 Reliever Al Alburquerque is tops amongst all pitchers (min. 10 IP) with a strike-out rate of 15.3/9. Awesome name? Check. More K's than baserunners allowed? Check. That's how you become a fan favorite.
15 Rays 25 21 Many considered the Rays' bullpen a weakness coming into the season, and though they have a 3.22 ERA, they're striking out fewer than 6 per nine while walking more than 4.

 

Continue reading this post »

6 comments  |  1 recs | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 7

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

The Indians and Royals keep sticking around towards the top of the rankings. Meanwhile, the Twins keep sticking around at the bottom. Been an interesting year in the AL Central.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Cardinals 22 18 The position players have 11 fWAR so far - easily the most in the majors (by over 2 wins). And for all the attention Berkman has gotten, Rasmus is right there with him.
2 Reds 22 17 Not only are they now leading the NL in home runs - led by Jay Bruce's 8 - they've also taken first place away from the Cardinals in the Central.
3 Phillies 25 13 Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, so awesome, yadda yadda. Cliff Lee is tops in the majors in K to BB ratio by a mile at 9.1. And that's worse than last year's 10.3.
4 Indians 24 13 Getting Grady Sizemore back has been a boon for one of the league's best offenses, as he has 6 home runs in only a half season so far.
5 Yankees 20 17 Their HR/FB has come down from the 20% area, but it's still by far the highest in the majors - helped out by Curtis Granderson's 13 longballs.
6 Blue Jays 19 20 Jose Bautista's wOBA is over a 100 points higher than second place. His 16 home runs would have already tied a career high, before 2010.
7 Braves 22 19 Jair Jurrjens 1.66 ERA has helped the Braves pitching staff take over the NL's top spot in that category. And the offense is starting to pick it up as well.
8 Rangers 20 19 Adrian Beltre (10 HR) is helping keep the offense afloat with Josh Hamilton out, and he's been an above average hitter despite a .218 BABIP.
9 Rays 23 16 Their ERA is outpacing their FIP more than any team in baseball, though they also lead in UZR. And with Evan Longoria back, the offense is back to league average.
10 Royals 20 19 Eric Hosmer (.241/.343/.517 with 2 home runs and 5 walks) has made a fine impression since being called up to the majors recently.
11 Rockies 20 17 Ubaldo Jiminez is still winless on the season, but the rest of the staff has picked him up well enough; somewhat less so with CarGo's struggles.
12 Tigers 22 18 Miguel Cabrera and V-Mart are among the league's best hitters, but Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta are putting up wOBAs around .370 themselves.
13 Marlins 23 15 Hanley Ramirez is outhitting Omar Infante, but that's about it on the team. At least they have Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez.
14 Brewers 18 21 Zack Greinke is back dealing (10 K/BB), and the Brewers are 4th in the league in xFIP. Not much production past the Big Three + Jon Lucroy in the lineup, though.
15 Athletics 20 19 The pitching has been very good, but Oakland position players have only 1.6 fWAR - partially due to an out of character -13 UZR.

 

 

Continue reading this post »

10 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Boxscore Power Rankings: Week 5

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

Another good week vaults the Cardinals to the top of the heap. The Rays, Orioles, and Mariners also moved up a few spots, while the White Sox had the largest drop.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Cardinals 16 11 Albert Pujols is 5th on the team on wOBA. And they're still scoring 5.3 runs per game and have the league's best offense.
2 Rangers 16 11 Beyond their power displays, the Rangers are also striking out less than any team in the majors.
3 Yankees 15 9 Any other good starter from 2005 want to join Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia in getting lots of run support in New York?
4 Rockies 17 8 Just wait until Ubaldo Jimenez gets going - the Rockies might actually pass the Phillies in the pitching department.
5 Phillies 18 8 Roy Oswalt's xFIP is at 3.53, making him the team's #5 starter so far this year. That's pretty gross.
6 Indians 18 8 The starters have been surprisingly effective; if that continues, they'll have a legit shot at the division title.
7 Brewers 13 13 Ryan Braun mashing - with assists from Rickie Weeks & Prince Fielder - and Zack Greinke is coming back.
8 Athletics 13 14 Coco Crisp has been the team's best hitter so far among qualified batters. The offense will pick up, and the A's may take off.
9 Reds 14 13 The Reds have scored the second most runs in the NL despite only a 107 wRC+ on offense.
10 Marlins 16 9 Once Josh Johnson's BABIP and HR/FB% against regress towards the mean, his ERA might actually go over 1.00.
11 Blue Jays 13 14 Jose Bautista has been great, but so has Ricky Romero despite the 2-3 record (he's 5th in the league with a 3.02 xFIP).
12 Royals 14 13 Jeff Francoeur is on pace to tie his career high in walks and set a new high in home runs. Yeah, "on pace". But still.
13 Red Sox 11 15 Carl Crawford's struggles have gotten the headlines, but Adrian Gonzalez has just as many home runs (one).
14 Braves 13 15 Jason Heyward has produced despite a low BABIP; the rest of the team, not so much.
15 Angels 15 12 When you add in Ervin Santana (3.39 FIP), can anyone in the AL stand up with the Angels' top three starters?

 

Continue reading this post »

3 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Where April's Best Starter Ends Up

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Player Profiles on Beyond the Box Score

Photo

Jered Weaver has started out this season on quite a roll, posting a 6-0 record with a sparkling 0.99 ERA - along with his 1.6 fWAR, those are best in the majors. On the heels of his excellent 2010, Weaver has established himself as one of the best young pitchers in the game. What does such a start portend for the full season though? I thought it might be fun to look at how April's top pitchers from the past few seasons finished the year (mainly using fWAR).

2010:

Roy Halladay led the way with 1.5 fWAR (4-1, 1.80 ERA, 2.30 FIP, 2.48 xFIP), with Tim Lincecum (1.4 fWAR) and Ubaldo Jimenez (1.2 fWAR) close behind. All three regressed slightly - Timmy the most, though he also had the lowest FIP/xFIP (1.97/2.10) at the time - but they all finished in the top 12 in end of year fWAR. Jimenez was #5, while Doc placed 2nd (behind Cliff Lee) and, of course, won the Cy Young award.

Continue reading this post »

0 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Beyond the Boxscore Power Rankings: Week 4

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

We've got a new team at this, and a slightly different layout. With the Pythagorean record being something we consider, but not the entirety of the ranking, it was clearer to remove it from the table. Behind the scenes, we delve further than just runs scored and allowed, to the run distributions, more readily available advanced stats like wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., as well as a Base Runs systems adjusted for BABIP and HR/FB%. Plus our guts and a dartboard, for that one team that you think we got horribly, horribly wrong.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Rockies 14 6 Getting it done with one of the majors' best pitching staffs. Not quite your older brother's Rockies.
2 Rangers 13 7 The Rangers show no signs of a power outage without defending MVP Josh Hamilton.
3 Cardinals 11 10 Went from being in seemingly deep trouble to having the NL's best offense - by far.
4 Phillies 14 6 The Phillies have the fewest runs scored of any division leader at 92. Four aces seems good.
5 Yankees 11 6 The Yankees have been able to overcome shaky pitching with a powerful offense (with an unsustainable HR/FB?).
6 Marlins 12 7 Florida's proving to be an early contender in the raucous NL East, largely on the strength of Josh Johnson's right arm.
7 Athletics 10 11 Their team ERA is the best in the majors, by about a half a run. Sure makes up for a mediocre offense.
8 Brewers 10 10 The addition of Shaun Marcum has helped give the team a nice staff to compliment their potent offense.
9 Indians 13 7 "There's two or three potential all-stars in there."
10 Reds 11 10 Once the Reds' ERA moves down towards their xFIP (a half run lower), they'll be plus on both sides of the ball.
11 Royals 12 9 The Royals hot start has Kansas City has fans trusting the system; Alex Gordon might be the early season MVP.
12 Red Sox 9 11 Don't look now, but the Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 and only 2 games under .500.
13 Angels 12 9 Dan Haren and Jered Weaver are awesome, but the team's benefiting from the league's lowest BABIP against.
14 Tigers 11 10 Miguel Cabrera is mashing, with more walks than strikeouts so far this year.
15 Braves 10 12 The offense has been sputtering, in part due to a terribly low BABIP, but the great pitching's keeping them afloat.

Continue reading this post »

3 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score BtB Power Rankings, Week 3

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

The top team remains the same this week, though a few clubs did jump in the rankings.

Rank Team Wins Losses RS RA Pythag W Pythag L
1 Rangers 10 4 73 42 10 4
2 Rockies 11 3 76 54 9 5
3 Reds 9 5 86 59 9 5
4 Phillies 9 4 73 46 9 4
5 Cardinals 8 7 87 63 10 5
6 Blue Jays 7 7 69 54 9 5
7 Indians 10 4 75 48 10 4
8 Yankees 8 5 71 63 7 6
9 Royals 10 4 80 60 9 5
10 White Sox 7 7 78 72 8 6
11 Angels 9 5 56 46 8 6
12 Giants 8 6 57 50 8 6
13 Brewers 7 6 51 48 7 6
14 Athletics 7 8 53 54 7 8
15 Cubs 7 7 62 70 6 8

Continue reading this post »

13 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Vernon Wells Not Off To Auspicious Start In LA

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Player Profiles on Beyond the Box Score

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim,  California - zip-code 92806* - traded Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera to the Blue Jays this past off-season in return for Vernon Wells. For this there was much derision, largely because Wells was still due $86 M from 2011 to 2014. The Jays were nice enough to throw a little cash into the deal, but it was a rounding error on the negative value the Angels were picking up.

* I don't think I'll ever tire of these jokes, though they are admittedly quite stupid.

Now, Wells did have a solid season for the Jays in 2010 - hitting .273/.331/.515 in his 4 fWAR campaign - so maybe LA thought he'd continue producing at a similar level. That doesn't sound very realistic, but it would at least come close to justifying his contract. What are the early returns?

Continue reading this post »

6 comments  |  1 recs | 

Beyond the Box Score BtB Power Rankings

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Power Rankings on Beyond the Box Score

There are a lot of ways to do power rankings. You can just go by current records - the "standings method". There are complicated formulas you can use to try to figure out the try talent level of each team. You can pro-rate using pre-season projections. We're just going with the simple runs scored and runs allowed (through Saturday's games) - Pythagorean records - with some manual adjustments where they seem appropriate*.

* Team A being ranked above Team B does not mean Team A will necessarily finish with a better record than Team B. But it does mean I hate Team B, and am biased against them.

Rank Team Wins Losses RS RA Pythag W Pythag L
1 Rangers 7 1 55 26 6 2
2 White Sox 5 3 56 46 5 3
3 Yankees 5 3 50 43 5 3
4 Phillies 6 2 56 33 6 2
5 Giants 4 4 36 26 5 3
6 Reds 6 2 53 34 6 2
7 Blue Jays 5 3 43 27 6 2
8 Rockies 5 2 35 22 5 2
9 Braves 4 5 32 32 5 5
10 Brewers 4 5 32 38 4 5
11 Tigers 3 5 38 45 3 5
12 Red Sox 1 7 29 53 2 6
13 Athletics 3 5 24 27 4 4
14 Dodgers 5 3 26 31 3 5
15 Orioles 6 2 35 29 5 3
16 Angels 4 4 36 33 4 4
17 Marlins 5 3 36 36 4 4
18 Cubs 4 4 33 36 4 4
19 Indians 6 2 46 33 5 3
20 Cardinals 2 6 21 33 2 6
21 Twins 3 5 21 36 2 6
22 Royals 5 3 40 40 4 4
23 Rays 1 7 19 38 2 6
24 Padres 3 4 25 25 4 4
25 Mets 4 4 41 44 4 4
26 Diamondbacks 3 4 34 31 4 3
27 Nationals 3 5 29 39 3 5
28 Pirates 5 4 32 35 4 5
29 Mariners 2 6 25 41 2 6
30 Astros 1 7 28 54 2 6


Comments:

Continue reading this post »

18 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score BtB Predicted Standings; What are yours?

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Opinion & Editorial on Beyond the Box Score

With the baseball season about to begin (finally!), the Beyond the Box Score crew assembled our predictions* for how the 2011 standings would shake out. Here they are, along with the highest and lowest vote for each team.

 

Average Highest Lowest
AL East
Boston Red Sox 1.1 1 2
New York Yankees 2.1 2 3
Tampa Bay Rays 2.8 1 3
Toronto Blue Jays 4.3 4 5
Baltimore Orioles 4.7 4 5
AL Central
Chicago White Sox 1.7 1 3
Minnesota Twins 1.7 1 4
Detroit Tigers 2.6 2 3
Cleveland Indians 4.2 3 5
Kansas City Royals 4.7 4 5
AL West
Texas Rangers 1.3 1 2
Oakland A's 1.9 1 3
Los Angeles Angels 2.9 2 4
Seattle Mariners  3.9 3 4
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies 1.4 1 2
Atlanta Braves 1.7 1 3
Florida Marlins 3.5 2 5
New York Mets 3.6 3 5
Washington Nationals 4.7 4 5
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds 1.8 1 3
Milwaukee Brewers 2.2 1 4
St. Louis Cardinals 2.9 1 4
Chicago Cubs 3.6 1 5
Houston Astros 5.2 4 6
Pittsburgh Pirates 5.3 2 6
NL West
San Francisco Giants 1.5 1 3
Colorado Rockies 2.5 1 3
Los Angeles Dodgers 3.1 1 4
San Diego Padres 3.1 1 5
Arizona Diamondbacks 4.9 4 5

Continue reading this post »

38 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Do closers always pitch in the most important situations?

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Visuals Above Replacement on Beyond the Box Score

This type of topic has been covered before, but I was thinking about the idea of a team potentially using a slightly lesser pitcher as a standard closer - allowing the best bullpen arm to be used in other high leverage situations - and decided to look at the distribution of save opportunities versus leverage index for relievers from 2010. Nothing too fancy; just a simple graphic:

Svli_medium

That's all relievers with at least 30 IP from lat year. gmLI is the leverage index when the pitcher entered the game, and save opportunity % is the proportion of saves and blown saves to total games. The red line divides the top 30 guys from the rest according to save opportunity %, though a few guys with some saves fell to the left of it (Trevor Hoffman, Fernando Rodney, Brandon Lyon).

Continue reading this post »

6 comments  |  1 recs | 

Beyond the Box Score Developing Plate Discipline

Cclogo_tiny by Daniel Moroz on in Research on Beyond the Box Score

I don't think it's an uncommon experience for a fan to wonder about a certain player on their favorite team, "man, that guy has a lot of tools... if only he'd develop some plate discipline!" I know I've had it (*cough* Adam Jones *cough*). How often do those young guys actually improve though? Off to Baseball-Reference's trusty play index for a quick look!

There are 49 players who had a strike-out to walk ratio of at least 4 over the course of their first five seasons (with a minimum of 1,000 plate appearances). Adam Jones is included, as are a number of other current players including youngsters Delmon Young, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and Howie Kendrick, as well as guys on the down swings of their careers like Alfonso Soriano, Jose Guillen, and Pedro Feliz.

 

Continue reading this post »

12 comments  |  1 recs |