One area that City fared well in during the 2011/12 season was in their exposure to injuries. I touched upon this subject in a recent post which coincided with some work I was doing in looking at the numbers in terms of how Roberto Mancini utilised his squad.

The Italian used twenty-four players over the course of the campaign, but included in this was just one start and four substitute appearances from the on-loan David Pizarro and a single appearance from the bench from each of Abdul Razak, Owen Hargreaves and Nedum Onouha.

It was interesting to note that the issue of playing time was cited as a key reason in determining which club Eden Hazard would ultimately join; the feeling being that at City he would struggle for minutes. This though is perhaps not entirely true as we can see from the graphic showing a breakdown of the total appearances, starts and substitute appearances (after the jump):

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When City suffered their midseason wobble a lot was written about the loss of key pair Vincent Kompany (suspension) and Yaya Toure (African Cup of Nations). Whilst the loss of both hurt City at the time one area that City were not hit by this season was injuries.

And for good reason. I came across this article by the excellent Sporting Intelligence website (in conjunction with data from Physioroom.com), in which it shows that City suffered the least in terms of time lost:

As our league table below shows, City suffered the least number of significant injury episodes (seven), with the players involved in those missing the fewest number of combined days to injuries during the season (186 days).

The single most significant injury for City was Nigel De Jong's ankle problem. That kept him out for 39 days in August and September. City's six other significant injuries involved Sergio Aguero (twice, groin in October, then foot in March-April), Aleksandar Kolarov (groin November to January), Vincent Kompany (calf, March), Joleon Lescott (groin, March-April) and Pablo Zabaleta (thigh, March).

This is key of course; allowing both for rotation of the squad but more importantly the continuity of selection - particularly of the core of the side - was key for Roberto Mancini as City hauled themselves back in the title race. Contrast this with United who were blighted by injury for the majority of the season.

I'm currently looking at some of the numbers around minutes played and who they key contributors were this past season. I hope to have something up towards the end of this week.

One thing I have looked at towards the end of the season is what I have defined as the Scoring Chance Index (or SCI). In essence this is a take on a measure in Ice Hockey that has been coined as ‘Neilson numbers' and a full background post on this can be found here.

The reason that I sought to look at this as an effective measure within football was the growing sense that possession and shots - the two universally accepted measures of a team's dominance within an individual match - do not necessarily paint the full picture.

I thought it worthwhile looking again at the Champions League final from last Saturday to see how the game broke down in this regard. We know that Bayern dominated the game in terms of shots (43-9), possession (56%-44%) and passing (87%-82%) but what I wanted to see was how this translated into ‘true' scoring chances - and who were the key players.

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The shot totals from the win over QPR show that City outshot the visitors by a huge margin of 44-3. There is a growing sense however that shot total numbers on their own are of little use and can be very misleading; evidence of this being that only 15 of City's tally of 44 were on target.

One of the areas I have looked at in recent weeks is to devise a Scoring Chance Index (SCI), essentially to define what can be considered as a scoring chance. The background to this with the full definition can be found here.

What the numbers from Sunday showed that was whilst conceding three scoring chances, City (from a total of 44 shots) had 19. Of this total it was interesting to note that 15 came in the second half, with ten over the last 20 minutes and 5 over the last ten minutes.

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My take on the game is here and here are your ratings from the day City won the title...

Hart - little chance with either goal and a largely quiet afternoon. 6.5

Zabaleta - got the vital opening goal and always an option out wide. 7

Kompany - a very quiet afternoon but good composure on the ball. 7

Lescott - huge sigh of relief after his error looked to have been so costly. 5

Clichy - a threat in the attacking game but lost Mackie for QPR's second - 5

Barry - restricted role with the injury of Yaya Toure. Sacrificed for attack late on - 6.5

Yaya Toure - afternoon cut short through injury but had a hand in the opening goal - 6.5

Silva - a little wasteful in possession but delivered the important corner for the equaliser - 7

Nasri - worked hard for little reward but an important part of the midfield - 7

Tevez - plenty of effort but struggled to impact in front of goal - 6.5

Aguero - energetic display and capped a fine debut season with that goal - 8

Subs:

de Jong - brought on with Yaya Toure's injury and slotted in well - 7

Dzeko - important header to spark hope for City - 7

Balotelli - played a huge part in Aguero's winner with some persistent play - 7

Perhaps if there was ever a game to encapsulate the forty-four years since the previous League triumph then that was it. All of the emotions, hopes and frustrations, joys and tears captured within ninety (ok, ninety-five) minutes that saw City's fortunes alter as wildly as their fans heart rates.

A game that was gone, clawed back and then won, as dramatically as any, with the crack of Sergio Aguero's right boot reverberating around the Premier League and beyond.

A finale to stand up there with the best of them. An ending that confounded all who saw it. A spectacle that drained every last drop of emotion from the souls of fans who must have believed they had seen it all in following City down the years.

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I wrote a piece for Football Scores about City's ups and downs on the final day of the season since they last won the title:

It is many years now since the old First Division trophy was won at Newcastle; heartbreak and joy has been experienced at the club in equal measure but perhaps none to the extent of what awaits shortly before 5pm this Sunday and it testament to how far the club - and this particular side - has come this past few seasons that they stand here on the cusp of a Premier League title: their fate held firmly in their own hands.

Legends live long and City's history is awash with tales of Bell, Lee and Summerbee. Can the likes of Hart, Kompany, Yaya Toure, Silva et al emulate their predecessors and etch their own names into immortality?

Destiny awaits.

Do check the piece out - even if it is just for the YouTube footage.

Both team have plenty to play for QPR take on City at the Etihad this weekend. A win for the "R's" could cause a massive upset at the top of the Premier League. As unlikely as that win may sound QPR are desperate to stay out the relegation zone, so points are crucial for both sides.

• According to the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index Man City are ranked third for total distance covered this season. They've covered a total of 2,395 miles this season and trail 2^nd place Blackburn by just six miles.
• Gareth Barry hasn't been outside the top two for distance covered in the Man City squad in their last six Premier League outings; of those previous six fixtures Barry has been top four times according to the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index.
• Silva has been superb in the midfield for Man City this season. The EA SPORTS Player Performance Index tells us he completed the 3^rd most passes in the opposition half this season with 1,184 but remains behind Modric and Arteta of Spurs and Arsenal respectively.
• Silva has also picked up the most assists this season. He's joint 1^st with Chelsea's Juan Mata both midfielders have completed 16 assists according to the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index.
• Skipper Joey Barton has been the epitome of a captain leading from the front for QPR this season. The EA SPORTS Player Performance Index shows us he's topped the individual distance covered index for QPR in their previous four fixtures.
• According to the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index Barton on average covers 6.2 miles per game, based on his stats across his previous four games.
• Shaun Derry remains second behind Barton for total distance covered for QPR this season. He's covered 148.6 miles and must surely be looking forward to the midfield battle with City come the weekend.
• Bobby Zamora is the highest ranked player for QPR in the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index, Zamora is currently ranked 81^st overall. 57% of his total shots have been on target this season and of those 28 shots on targets he's put seven in the back of the net.

The game is almost upon us. Here are your daily links. Enjoy....

• Yaya Toure hails the 'ubelievable' Roberto Mancini. [metro.co.uk]
• Mancini insists the visit of QPR won't be a grudge match between him and Mark Hughes. [Independent]
• Mancini says City are deserved of the title. [Guardian]
• Garry Cook is likely to be in attendance at tomorrow's game. [Telegraph]
• A nice graphic looking at the changing leads between City and United this season. [MEN]
• Paul Hayward writes that City fans now dare to dream. [Telegraph]
• Jamie Jackson looks at how City managed to keep a unified and focussed squad. [Guardian]
• Alan Smith looks at some of the tactical battles. [Telegraph]

Per mcfc.co.uk:

Captain fantastic Vincent Kompany has been named the Barclays Player of the Season after an incredible 2011/12 campaign.

The central defender has been a rock at the back for the title favourites and his leadership has been recognised by a panel of experts in winning this award.

The well-organised City defence, orchestrated by Kompany, has kept 17 clean sheets this campaign leading to another award this time for Joe Hart who collected the top flight's Golden Glove prize.

Not a surprising that Kompany was in the mix for the award but the smart money has been on Robin van Persie picking up the season accolades for 2011/12. It is testament though to the fantastic season Kompany has had, providing the backbone for a league leading (once again) defence.

Don't forget that you can still vote until midnight Sunday evening to determine Bitter and Blue's player of the season here.

Thinking ahead to Sunday, would there be any appetite amongst you for a 'live blog' of the title deciding game?

I have done a couple of Cover it Live blogs before and it prompted some great interaction. Anyone keen?

The recap of the vital in at Newcastle can be found here and below are the Scoring Chance Index numbers from the game (click to enlarge):

As we can see it as a big game once again for both David Silva and Sergio Aguero, with Yaya Toure also performing strongly. Interesting too to note was Edin Dzeko and Nigel de Jong's numbers given their relatively short time and number of touches whilst it as no surprise Samir Nasri was substituted given his zero score.

The value of adding the defensive measure was shown with Micah Richards' vital late block hen the score was still at 1-0.

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Hart - a smart save from Ben Arfa in the first half and always comfortable when called upon. 7

Zabaleta - his loss of possession allowed their best chance but a largely disciplined game. 6.5

Kompany - a composed and imposing figure at the back. A threat from set pieces too. 8

Lescott - often in the shadows of his captain but helped thwart the threat of Newcastle's front pair. 7.5

Clichy - contributed well going forward and had a hand in Yaya Toure's second. 6

Yaya Toure - dominant performance once again. Showed immense versatility and of course go the crucial goals. 8.5

Barry - effective performance yet again. Contributed well to the attacking game too. 7

Silva - managed to find plenty of space and always involved from an attacking perspective. 7.5

Nasri - lined up mostly on the right but struggled to impact in terms of creating opportunities. 5.5

Tevez - a willing runner, linked up well and not afraid to get a shot way. 7

Aguero - always involved and always impacting. Missed a couple of good scoring opportunities though. 7

With such performances are titles won. Eyes and minds were increasingly turning towards the clock as City sought the win that would put one hand on the title as the minutes ticked away. The second half was a nervy affair no doubt; not through the threat Newcastle posed but the question as to whether or not City could get the vital goal. They had the better of the play and the territorial advantage but despite probing away at the Newcastle defence could not land the knockout blow. Step forward Yaya Toure. Released further forward with the introduction of Nigel de Jong Toure took a pass from Sergio Aguero and displayed a wonderful technique to curl the ball into the bottom corner with twenty minutes remaining. City at times this season have struggled in games where they have not led on the hour. Not this time though and the ensuing celebrations underlined the magnitude of the strike. A second was added - not before excellent chances had been spurned - as City closed out the win and put one very firm hand on the Premier League trophy.

Plenty had been written in the lead up to the game about the difficulty of this fixture for City. Newcastle, buoyed by an excellent win at Chelsea in midweek and with Arsenal slipping up on Saturday, had a real opportunity to take a big step towards securing Champions League football but nothing had been written about how difficult a task facing City would be. This was a City with momentum firmly behind them. The win against United was the culmination of a recent spell of results that saw four successive wins following the Arsenal defeat; a run of form that allowed them to take advantage of any slip by United. Newcastle showed flashes of quality and it was a display that suggested they have a bright future ahead of them. On the day though, they came across a City side that were that bit better.

Continue reading this post »

Two games, two wins and the title is City's.

A tricky looking trip to Newcastle - with legitimate Champions League aspirations - awaits though with Manchester United hoping for the slip up that could see them back in the driving seat.

Can City do it? Comment away...

Some interesting numbers ahead of tomorrow's game:

• Man City will be brimming with confidence after beating arch-enemies Manchester United 1-0 on Monday night.
• Vincent Kompany scored in the first half extra time against Manchester United and was ultimately the difference that secured all three points for City.
• Kompany scored his third goal of the season and according to the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index 66% of Kompany's shots have been on target this season.
• The EA SPORTS Player Performance Index shows us three of Man City's strikers feature in the top 10 Premier League goal scorers this season. No other team features three of more players.
• Balotelli, Dzeko and Sergio Aguero have all scored over 12 goals each this season. Aguero is the only City Player to have scored over 20 goals.
• Out of City's top scorer's Balotelli has the best shots on target percentage 63%, Dzeko is second with 62.5% and Aguero third with 52%.
• Papiss Cisse has been in incredible form for Newcastle this season. After picking up two on Wednesday night against Chelsea, with one which must be in contention for goal of the season.
• He's only made 12 appearances for the Jordies this weekend but Cisse has picked up 13 goals. The EA SPORTS Player Performance Index shows us, Cisse is averaging 1.08 goals per appearance.
• Cisse's hasn't had all that many chances in front of goal, but when he does he takes it. 68% of Cisse's total shots have been on target this season and 54.1% of Cisse's shots on target have resulted in goals.
• Demba Ba, fellow countrymen of Cisse, has also been a goal machine for Newcastle this season. Ba has had 83 shots in total and according to the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index 63.8% of those have been on target.
• Jonas Guiterrez has been the powerhouse in the Newcastle midfield. The EA SPORTS Player Performance Index shows us Guiterrez has covered the fourth most distance out on any player in the Premier League.
• The EA SPORTS Player Performance Index also shows us Ryan Taylor has been the main provider for Newcastle's front men this season. He's delivered 78 crosses this season this season which puts him 14^th overall for crossed in the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index.

One area that I have been increasingly interested in over the course of the season in terms of statistics and analytics is that of scoring chances. We know that City have consistently been at the top end of clubs in terms of their conversion rate and that during the period where City slipped from top spot they were still creating chances, but underwent a noticeable drop off in terms of converting chances to goals.

There a variety of sources of data providing numbers around chances and shots, and whilst useful these can at times be misleading. For example, shots is very wide definition to cover an ‘attempt on goal', essentially classifying shots inside and outside the box, on and off target and blocked as one and the same.

Continue reading this post »

Per the official site:

Manchester City Football Club and NIKE Inc. today announced a new partnership that will see the sponsorship of the Club move from Umbro to the Nike brand from the start of the 2013/14 season.

The Umbro sponsorship, which has been in place since June 2009, will continue to the end of the 2012/13 season, after which all kit, training wear and related products will be designed, manufactured and distributed by Nike. The contract will run until 2019.

When City returned to Umbro ahead of the 2009/10 season it appeared that it was a long term move for both parties, but given that Nike own Umbro they were keen to capitalise on City's growing global presence.

FT.com reports that the value of the deal may top Liverpool's £25million deal with Warriorn and will no doubt impact on City's attempts to comply with the impending FFP regulations.

UPDATE: Reports in the press this morning are suggesting that the deal is worth approximately £72million (£12million per season) over the six-year period.

It's getting to that time of year now and the candidates have been listed on the official site for their vote.

Rather than restrict things too much, I've listed all players who have started at least ten Premier League games this season.

Vote away...

Fists clenched. Arms raised. Celebration in itself but cautioned with the knowledge that there is much work to be done. Pre-game Roberto Mancini had preached that should City win the game it was a case of forgetting the game and moving on to face Newcastle; no back-slapping or wallowing in the glory, merely a sense of achievement and accomplishment as once again they defeated their City rivals. The 6-1 it wasn't but no less satisfying. From the brink of collapse following the defeat at Arsenal, now sit atop the Premier League with their fate in their own hands. Two games, two wins and the Premier League title heads to the Blue half of Manchester.

Timing is so often crucial, particularly in games where such small margins are often the deciding factor. In a game where chances (just three shots on target all game) were limited a set piece goal was perhaps the likeliest outcome of settling matters. City, once so impotent from set plays, had scored seventeen this season and with a moments hesitation in the United defence the decision blow was struck. If half-time had arrived with the score 0-0 how differently may the second half have been? I wrote pre-game how important the first goal and half time lead had been for both sides and so it came to pass. United in the main during the opening forty-five minutes restricted space, able - with the inclusion of Park Ji-Sung ahead of Danny Welbeck - to get bodies (sometimes all bar Wayne Rooney) behind the ball whenever City broke forward. The goal boosted City and put the onus on United to get back into the game: and it was something that City never allowed.

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'Unmissable'; the 'mother of all derbies'. Just two of the labels attached to tonight's Manchester derby that could well decide the destination of the 2011/12 Premier League season.

As you can imagine, the weekend has seen plenty written in advance of the game. Here are your links to some of the best:

• Roberto Mancini still feels that United are favourites, even if City win tonight. [MEN]
• Sir Alex Ferguson is expecting a 'shoot out'. [Guardian]
• Michael Cox thinks City's midfield may have the edge. [Guardian]
• Stuart Brennan interviews Carlos Tevez. [MEN]
• Daniel Taylor reflects on how there is no so much more than local pride at take. [Guardian]
• Mike Hammond looks at parallels between 1968 and 2012. [In Bed with Maradona]
• Jamie Jackson has a nice interview with Vincent Kompany ahead of the game. [Guardian]
• Ian Herbert with an excellent profile of Roberto Mancini. [Independent]
• Louise Taylor profiles Carlos Tevez. [Guardian]
• Phil McNulty looks ahead to the game. [BBC Sport]
• Alistair Magowan digs into the key batles. [BBC Sport]
• Gary Neville predicts that the outcome of the game could have a long term impact. [Mail]
• My look at the goalscoring numbers. [EPL Index]
• And my interview with R_o_M. [R_o_M]
• Shuddertothink takes a closer look at United's away form this season. [Bitter and Blue]
• And also looks behind City's home record. [Bitter and Blue]
• Sergio Aguero, Mario Balotelli and Edin Dzeko are all converting clear cut chances at a high rate. [EPL Index]

All,

A favour if you can. The 2011/12 season still has a couple of weeks to run but I'm already looking ahead to next season in terms of content on Bitter and Blue.

Looking back over the blog for this season, the following areas have been covered along the way:

• News-style pieces (either as a post or 'quicker' fan shots)
• Match previews
• Match reports
• Five thoughts game reflections
• Game threads
• Stat-hits
• Tactical analysis
• Statistical analysis
• Competitions
• Comment/editorials
• Transfer rumours

This is where you guys come in. What I am looking for is any feedback, comment and suggestions around what goes up on the blog: what do you like/not like, is there anything you'd like to see that is not particularly covered etc?

I'm happy for you to open this post up as a thread or alternatively email me at bitterandblue@hotmail.co.uk.

I do appreciate the ongoing support for the blog and anything you can help contribute to improve the blog is gretly appreciated.

Danny.

Per Football 365:

The 23-year-old Argentina international, who has scored 21 goals in 30 league appearances this season, is joined in the six-strong group of nominees by Eastlands team-mates Joe Hart and David Silva.

Arsenal striker Robin van Persie, who leads the scoring charts with 27 league goals, is also on the shortlist along with Wayne Rooney of Manchester United and Tottenham's Scott Parker, who lifted the award last year.

Aguero, who joined City from Atletico Madrid last year, is nominated in the Young Player category with Spurs duo Kyle Walker and Gareth Bale.

Manchester United's Danny Welbeck, Daniel Sturridge of Chelsea and Arsenal winger Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain complete the sextet aiming to follow in the footsteps of 2011 winner Jack Wilshere.

No surprise to see Sergio Aguero make the shortlist and my guess is that he misses out to Robin van Persie in the main award but takes the Young Player (aged 23 and under) of The Year honour, but is there an argument that even at City both Vincent Kompany and Yaya Toure could have been nominated ahead of Joe Hart and David Silva?

It is unsurprising that Silva is shortlisted as the voting is conducted late February/early March so was prior to his recent downturn in form, but as good as Hart has been - and not to diminish his performances - has he been that good this season to warrant consideration as one of the top six players in the Premier League?

Thoughts?

I wrote pre-game that City had to find a return to their clinical away form from earlier in the season if they were to stand any chance of pulling off a remarkable comeback over the final weeks of the season. This was particularly so given that three of their remaining fixtures (prior to yesterday) were away from home where they had taken just seven points from their seven games in 2012. One game it may only have been but it was certainly the result and performance so desperately needed as it reprised away days from back in the Autumn months as City hit six goals - more than they had managed in their previous ten on the road - to put an end to their struggles away from home and at the very least signal that they intend to push United all the way.

With the only change from the West Brom game that of Pablo Zabaleta replacing Micah Richards City's approach was clear: rather than a performance that lacked belief, conviction and intent they would impose themselves early and often - and so it proved as City sought to dictate the play. This resulted in a bright start to the game as Norwich too were able to fashion chances but the greater movement of City's front line was key. The duo of Carlos Tevez and Sergio Aguero finding time and space and both profited in quick succession to put City two goals ahead with excellent strikes from distance.

Continue reading this post »

Only one change from Roberto Mancini today with Pablo Zabaleta replacing Micah Richards from the side that beat West Brom in midweek:

#MCFC team to play @NorwichCityFC: Hart, Zabaleta, Kompany (C), Lescott, Clichy, De Jong, Barry, Silva, Nasri, Aguero, Tevez

— Manchester City FC (@MCFC) April 14, 2012

#NCFC team to face @MCFC: Ruddy, R. Martin, Drury, Johnson, Holt (c), Pilkington, E. Bennett, Wilbraham, Ward, Howson, R. Bennett #unchanged

— Norwich City FC (@NorwichCityFC) April 14, 2012

Comment away...

Apologies that it's a little late but here's a round-up of some the coverage from the victory over West Brom that saw hope restored to City's title bid:

• Reaction from the official site. [mcfc.co.uk]
• Jamie Jackson's match report. [Guardian]
• Chris Bascombe's match report. [Telegraph]
• Stuart Brennan's match report . [MEN]
• A look at Carlos Tevez's role in the victory. [Stat Zone]
• A look at the influential players from both sides. [Stat Zone]
• Tim Rich writes on what might have been for City and Carlos Tevez. [Independent]
• Mind games or pragmatism from Roberto Mancini as he writes off City's hopes? [Guardian]
• View From a Blue speculates whether the title race is back on. [View From a Blue]
• Jamie Jackson's ten title race pointers. [Guardian]
• Euro Club Index still only hve City with a 1% chance of lifting the title. [EuroClubIndex]