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Anybody watch ESPN's Draft Confidential special with Parcells and Polian last night? Just like last year, they dressed up the set as a draft war room, including a big board that presumably the Tuna himself filled in. And even though both he and Polian have somewhat of a mixed track record in terms of their draft success, they undoubtedly think the way many current NFL execs/coaches do. There were enough close-ups of the board while I was watching that I figured I'd be able to recreate it for you guys. So, armed with my plasma, my Tivo pause button, and a pad and pencil, that's what I set out to do.

The results were interesting, to say the least.

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Bill Barnwell (formerly of Football Outsders, and now the resident NFL expert on Bill Simmons' Grantland.com effort) offers up a fairly rational assessment of the Cowboys-Lions game from this weekend, noting that neither of Romo's Pick-6s were of the type where a touchdown was automatic once the interception was made and that the Cowboys offensive players did him no favors in trying to stop the return, and that historically Pick-6s are fluky and happen to the best of QBs. He also points out that it was not Romo that was completely unable to get to the QB or cover Megatron and Pettigrew in the second half.

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Last night I watched the Short Cut* of the Lions-Vikes game from Week 3 to get a preview of what we might see in this weekend's game. I had not seen much of the Lions this year aside from game recap highlights, but I knew they  had come from behind after being down 20 points at the half, which is pretty impressive (on an interesting side note, the Vikings have lost all 3 of their games this year despite having increasingly large double-digit halftime leads - 13, 17, and now 20 points). I came away even more impressed. The Lions are a significantly improved team, but they do have weaknesses, and if we were at full strength this weekend I would like our chances. However, given the current state of our injury situation, this is going to be a very difficult game to win.

More on my thoughts from the game after the jump...

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Tonight, ESPN ran a 90-minute draft special with Mike Tirico and Bill Parcells. During the show, they often referenced a big board that broke down each position by round (through 4 rounds, although he did have a few 5th-rounders visible here and there). Presumably this was created by The Tuna, as it differs significantly from the other rankings that we've seen recently.

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I was excited when we drafted AOA because I had just read a nice feature on him by SI's Peter King in their NFL draft preview. Here's a snippet:

Thanks in part to the mentoring of Tepper, who coached 28 years in Division I, including six as head coach at Illinois, where he nurtured NFL first-round defenders Simeon Rice and Kevin Hardy. At IUP, Owusu-Ansah learned proper backpedal and cover techniques while playing mostly corner, then switched to safety for much of his senior year. He had just two interceptions and 27 tackles as a senior, but, Tepper explains, "no one threw at him. He was just so much better than everyone else. I've coached at Virginia Tech, Colorado, Illinois and LSU, and I can promise you he would have started and excelled in any of those programs."

NFL scouts started sniffing around after Owusu-Ansah ran a 4.46-second 40 as a junior—on a linoleum-tiled hallway in the field house. Scouts were on the sidelines of IUP practice regularly last fall. "I'd tell them all the same thing," Tepper says. "His height, weight and [40] time all fit the NFL. His character fits the NFL. And on Day One in the NFL he can cover kicks and return punts and kicks. I see him as a two-deep safety up there. He can play corner, but I think he'd be more gifted at safety."

Link

King loves him. He tweeted this before the start of the 4th round:

Mark my words: Someone will get a bargain in Indiana (Pa.) CB-S-Ret Akwasi Owusu-Ansah in this round.

and then 45 minutes later tweeted this after we made the pick:

Congratulations, Wade Phillips. You just made a great pick in Owusu-Ansah.

Hopefully he's right. It sounds like the kid has the goods.

Back in September, Raf offered up his playoff predictions for 09. With all 6 playoff spots in the NFC decided, and 4 of the 6 AFC spots locked up, let's see how he did:

The mainstream media carneys are all making fools of themselves with their predictions so I figure it's time for me to do the same.  Here, then are my picks for the NFL playoff field.

Longtime readers know, I'm the advocate of the "Fantastic Four" theory of prognostication.  As I've demonstrated in numerous posts the past five seasons, there are two trends in the Era of Parity. First, the playoff field churns roughly 50% from year to year.  That means that around six of the teams which made the playoffs last year won't repeat. 

The second, and more interesting stat involves the NFL's rebound factor. This decade an average of four teams per season which had losing records the previous year make the playoffs the following year. Thirty four teams have made this jump since 2000.  Look at last year's field.  Miami went from 1-15 to 11-5; Baltimore from 5-11 to 11-5; the Panthers from 7-9 to 12-4 and the Falcons jumped from 4-12 to 11-5.

And this happens every year. Since I've been touting this loser-to-winner streak, I'm going to find at least three more teams to make the jump.  This requires a leap of faith on my part;  how, for example, could anybody last year logically predict that the Dolphins would improve ten games?  Here, then, the picks

Loser to Winner in bold; new playoff team with *

AFC Field

 

• New England, 1st East*
• Baltimore, 1st North
• Pittsburgh, 2nd North
• Cincinnati, 3rd North*
• Tennessee, 1st South
• San Diego, 1st West

 

NFC Field

 

• Philadelphia, 1st East
• Dallas, 2nd East*
• Green Bay, 1st North*
• New Orleans, 1st South*
• Seattle, 1st West*
*    Arizona, 2nd West

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