SB Nation User Blog: Dave Barry

Community Prospect List #5

Dave Barry — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 22:36:53 -0000

Chris Perez easily takes the number 4 spot with 60% of the vote.

1. Colby Rasmus

2. Brett Wallace

3. Jason Motte

4. Chris Perez

BA kicked out their Top Ten today.

1.	Colby Rasmus, of
2.	Brett Wallace, 3b
3.	Chris Perez, rhp
4.	Jess Todd, rhp
5.	Bryan Anderson, c
6.	Clayton Mortensen, rhp
7.	Daryl Jones, of
8.	Jason Motte, rhp
9.	David Freese, 3b
10.	Pete Kozma,ss They must really like Todd, Also check out their best tools list. Here are the next ten candidates. If there's someone else you think deserves it, say so in the comments, otherwise, vote for who you think is number 5. Also, feel free to make a pitch for who you voted for, and maybe spark some discussion about the future of our beloved team in the off season. Without further ado, the nominees for the Cardinals #5 prospect:

Poll

Who is the cardinals #5 prospect

Pete Kozma

2 votes

Clayton Morteson

3 votes

Mitch Boggs

4 votes

Daryl Jones

44 votes

Jess Todd

30 votes

Bryan Anderson

25 votes

Adam Reifer

0 votes

Jamie Garcia

11 votes

Jon Jay

1 votes

David Freese

5 votes

Pete Kozma

0 votes

125 votes | Poll has closed

Community Prospect List #4

Dave Barry — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 16:47:45 -0000

Somehow Jason Motte took 62% of the vote for the number three spot.

1. Colby Rasmus

2. Brett Wallace

3. Jason Motte

There's been a lot of good discusions about prospects over the last few days at various sites but unfortunately I don't have time to track down and link.

Here are the next ten candidates. If there's someone else you think deserves it, say so in the comments, otherwise, vote for who you think is number 4. Also, feel free to make a pitch for who you voted for, and maybe spark some discussion about the future of our beloved team in the off season. Without further ado, the nominees for the Cardinals #4 prospect:

Poll

Who is the Cardinals number #4 prospect/

Daryl Jones

32 votes

Chris Perez

85 votes

Mitch Boggs

2 votes

Pete Kozma

0 votes

jess Todd

6 votes

Jamie Garcia

5 votes

Bryan Anderson

5 votes

Adam Reifer

1 votes

David Freese

3 votes

Jon Jay

1 votes

140 votes | Poll has closed

Community Prospect List #3

Dave Barry — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 01:31:49 -0000

Brett Wallace easily takes over the number two spot with 80% of the vote.

1.Colby Rasmus

2. Brett Wallace

Of course kevin Golstein released his Top 11 Today.

Five-Star Prospects
1. Colby Rasmus, CF
2. Brett Wallace, 3B
Four-Star Prospects
3. Chris Perez, RHP
4. Daryl Jones, LF
Three-Star Prospects
5. Jess Todd, RHP
6. Adam Reifer, RHP
7. Bryan Anderson, C
8. Jaime Garcia, RHP
9. Lance Lynn, RHP
10. Jason Motte, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
11. Niko Vasquez, SS

There is some diversity between the various list that have been released thus far, Goldsteins curveball could be Reifer at number 6 and the absense of David Freese.

Under consideration for the third spot on our list will be Chris Perez and jason Motte, who conveniently have been recently analyzed over at Beyond the Box Score.

Another prospect who will be getting some looks is Daryl Jones, who is somewhat overlooked with our outfield depth. If it were a more glaring position of need, would we be more inclined to include him within the top tier of prospects? Some have called him the best athlete in the system.

Here are the next ten candidates. If there's someone else you think deserves it, say so in the comments, otherwise, vote for who you think is number 3. Also, feel free to make a pitch for who you voted for, and maybe spark some discussion about the future of our beloved team in the off season. Without further ado, the nominees for the Cardinals #3 prospect:

Poll

Who is the #3 prospect?

Jason Motte

183 votes

David Freese

3 votes

Chris Perez

50 votes

Jess Todd

3 votes

Daryl Jones

21 votes

Bryan Anderson

27 votes

Jamie Garcia

3 votes

Mitchell Boggs

2 votes

Pete Kozma

4 votes

Adam Reifer

0 votes

296 votes | Poll has closed

Community Prospect List #2

Dave Barry — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 22:22:04 -0000

Colby Rasmus Won the organizations top spot easily with 79% of the vote.

Of course John Sickels posted his Cardinals Top 20+ list early this morning. I really enjoy reading Sickels work, but his work shouldn't be considered absolute. His 10 rankings are

1. Colby Rasmus

2. Brett Wallace

3. Chris Perez

4. Daryl Jones

5. Jess Todd

6. Jon Jay

7. Jason Motte

8. Bryan Anderson

9. Mitchell Boggs

10. Jaime Garcia

One thing that stands out is all of the top ten are within striking distance of the majors,at or above AA. Track record is important to John, he has a preference for players close to the majors and generally ranks those higher than similar players farther away, although it barely seems applicable here. Criteria can be a mix of many things including ultimate ceiling, players value, or likely hood of reaching the majors.

Poll

Who is the Cardinals #2 Prospect

Bryan Anderson

2 votes

Mitchell Boggs

4 votes

Jamie Garcia

1 votes

Chris Perez

11 votes

Brett Wallace

107 votes

David Freese

0 votes

Jason Motte

48 votes

Pete Kozma

2 votes

Jess Todd

3 votes

Daryl Jones

3 votes

181 votes | Poll has closed

Community Prospect Rankings

Dave Barry — Sun, 04 Jan 2009 04:14:40 -0000

Prospect list season is in full swing and having a Viva El Birdos list would be a nice addition to the many other list currently available.

Some of those existing list are Future Redbirds, Derrick Goold's Birdland and Scout.com's community List

Here are the first 10 prospects under consideration for the number 1 spot. If there's someone else you think deserves it, say so in the comments, otherwise, vote for who you think is number 1. Also, feel free to make a pitch for who you voted for, and maybe spark some discussion about the future of our beloved team in the offseason. Without further ado, the nominees for the Cardinals #1 prospect:

Poll

Who is the Cardinals #1Prospect?

Bryan Anderson

1 votes

Daryl Jones

2 votes

Jaime Garcia

0 votes

Chris Perez

2 votes

Colby Rasmus

87 votes

Brett Wallace

13 votes

David Freese

0 votes

Jason Motte

6 votes

Pete Kozma

2 votes

Jess Todd

0 votes

113 votes | Poll has closed

hot stove 10/28-11/04

Dave Barry — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 13:54:17 -0000

i'm re-posting lboros' roster matrix for reference. community question, who are the diamonds in the ruff of the 09 season. those unappreciated, misused, unhealthy and generally unknown players that come out of nowhere every year to have a nice impact with their club? think grant balfour, y. soria, carlos pena kind of production for a small investment.

STARTERS	BENCH	ROTATION	PEN
molina c $3.3m	miles ut $2m	wainwright rhp $2.6m	perez rhp $400K
pujols 1b $16m	duncan lf $600K	lohse rhp $7.1m	franklin rhp $2.5m
kennedy 2b $4m	barton of $400K	pineiro rhp $7.5m	motte rhp $400K
glaus 3b $11.3m	mather of $400K	wellemeyer rhp $2.5m	mcclellan rhp $400K
[vacant] - - -	ryan ut $400K	carpenter rhp $14m	kinney rhp $400K
schumaker lf $450K	rasmus of memphis	boggs rhp memphis	thompson rhp $500K
ankiel cf $2.5m	anderson c memphis	todd rhp memphis	jimenez rhp memphis
ludwick rf $1.8m	freese 3b memphis	mortensen rhp memphis	worrell rhp memphis
TOTAL $39.0m	TOTAL $3.8m	TOTAL $33.7m	TOTAL $4.6m
OVERALL	PAYROLL:	$81.1m

Market Ineffeciency?

Dave Barry — Mon, 12 Nov 2007 06:57:13 -0000

Dear Diary, and good morning

i'm going to paint with broad strokes quickly to sell an idea and hear feedback from the knowledgeable VEB community. Both jake peavy and johan santana could be shopped by their teams this winter. Surprising, the expected return in players for both pitchers will be in the same general level of talent. That surprises me because peavy has two years left on his contract while santana is in his walk year.

so i begin to wonder what the difference between the two pitchers in actual wins would be. using 2007 win shares percentage as a guide, their difference is negligible. Is it possible the idea that Santana is the greatest pitcher in the game adds another level of value on the free agent or trade market. will A-rod command his large contract because of the wins he brings to a team, or rather will the idea that he is the greatest player in the game command it.

Do teams still over value players who are considered best at their position, or even players who have the best tools. Does the idea carl crawford can steal bases so efficiently make him more of a commodity than he actually is?

which brings me to the cardinals and yadier molina. Molina has quickly attained the reputation that he is the premier defensive catcher in the game, and with good reason. nobody is denying that he is a great player, but is it possible that he is overrated? I took a look at win shares to get some tangible evidence to work with. the hard ball times has molina accountable for 11 win shares on the season, 7.5 are attributed to his fielding. That's not prorated, so we have to take into account the time he missed. So instead I'll use Win share percentage, .518.

where he falls in WSP for 2007

J Mauer .922
J Posada .853
C Snyder .795
R Castro .683
R Hernandez .546
Y. Molina .518
G Zaun .439
R Paulino .398

obviously this is not an all inclusive list, but the 7.5 win shares through defense molina brought last season did not equate to him being an extremely valuable player in terms of win shares. another thing that stands out to me is free agent R. Castro having a higher WSP than molina. It's a small sample size, and Castro is a borderline starting catcher. But the idea is, the win shares molina has can be overcome with a relatively inexpensive catcher with marginal tools across the board.

still with me? If molina is only worth .518 WSP, and the market values him higher than his actual worth in wins, it's feasible that he could be replaced with little win cost behind the plate with a free agent pick up such as Castro. It's not trying to upgrade the catcher position, it's turning molina into player responsible for more wins because the market could overvalue his particular tool set.

Lets me use this in practice, theoretically of course. The Marlins, angels, mets and yankees Really want a defensive catcher. They want the best one in the game, so naturally, they turn to Molina. marlins win by trading J. hermida, cardinals in turn sign M Barrett, Castro or loduca and trade Duncan for pitching. The cardinals now have a better outfield, a starting pitcher or two of some caliber, and have lost only one or two win shares behind the plate, while adding app. 7 million in payroll.

Broad stroaks, Intentionally leaving out things like projection, I'm relying heavily on one Stat(never a good thing)could just be over estimating Molina's value on the trade market, and perhaps most importantly, completely underestimating the personal relationship molina has with his teammates and managers or his "intangibles".

in my constant attempt to think of ways to outsmart the market, I wonder if molina is worth more to the cardinals on or off the team?

finally, i'm curious as to what tools or skills readers think teams overvalue or undervalue in the current market.