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Around SBN: Florida State's December Could Help for Years to Come

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Dave Gardner

May 14, 2008 Sep 21, 2008 9 7

I'm a sports writer, primarily for NewEraScouting.com, where I am a Director of Content. Growing up in Tampa during the Buccaneers reclamation years under Coach Tony Dungy, I learned to love hard-hitting defense and a strong running game. Although I favor no NFL teams, I'm extremely biased toward the University of Florida Gators; a student there, I major in Journalism and Psychology. My work has appeared on ProFootballTalk.com and CollegeFootballTalk.com, and I've interviewed players across the country, from the Dennis Dixon to Andre Caldwell.

You can check out my archives at NES here: http://www.newerascouting.com/category/writers/dave-gardner/

Email me with any questions/comments at theconstantgardner@newerascouting.com. Also email me if you or anyone you know has a way to get in touch with Hayden Panettiere, I think we'd get along great.

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Florida-Tennesee Reaction

The Gators continued their four-year dominance over Tennessee Saturday. The Gators have outscored the Volunteers 89-26 in their last two contests, and the road to the SEC East Championship seems a little clearer now.

Here's the top and bottom prospect from each team:

Eric Berry, CB, Tennesee -- Top

The junior corner will have to consider entering the NFL Draft if he continues to play like he did Saturday. A physical corner, Berry was the only player on Tennesee who consistently demonstrated form tackling. He also showed good speed and awareness, keeping up with Florida's quick wide receivers.

Jon Crompton, QB, Tennesee -- Bottom

There was quite a bit of enthusiasm surrounding Crompton this offseason because he has a much stronger arm than his predecessor, Erik Ainge. However, that's about as far as his skills extend. Crompton looked terrible against a fairly vanilla Gators' defense on Saturday. He luckily escaped with just one interception. His arm is great, but his head isn't. He throws into coverage constantly and doesn't seem to understand how to read the position of the safeties especially.

Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida -- Top

Spikes is a speedy and disciplined mike linebacker. He sees the play develop before the rest of the defense, and he is always around the ball carrier at the end of the play. He shows good ability and coverage, and he is even better at collapsing the pocket on blitzes. He is looking more and more like a first day pick.

Tim Tebow, QB, Florida -- Bottom

The Heisman Trophy winner wasn't terrible on Saturday, he just wasn't, well, Tebow. His touch on the deep ball is legendary, but his intermediate passing game still needs quite a bit of work. He was inaccurate on almost any short throw that wasn't directly in front of him today. On the other side of the coin, Tebow is learning how to read a defense, and that makes him more dangerous than he was last year. He'll need to put up better numbers in the future if he wants to defend his trophy against the likes of Moreno and Daniel.

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Jon Gruden Interview

It's notoriously hard to be a late-round pick at quarterback and make it on the opening day roster. A couple of fifth-round picks may do it this year, however. The Steelers are high on quarterback Dennis Dixon, whom I interviewed before the draft. Luckily for him, an injury to Charlie Batch has left them a little thin at quarterback.

For Buccaneers rookie quarterback Josh Johnson, however, four other quarterbacks who have won games for the Bucs are ahead of him on the depth chart: Jeff Garcia, Brian Griese, Luke McCown, and Chris Simms. Although Simms will likely be cut or traded, the other three are reliable options for quarterback fanatic Jon Gruden.

I got a chance to talk with him about Johnson and his chances to make the team.

Click right here to read it.

Feel free to leave comments here or email me at theconstantgardner@newerascouting.com.

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Monday Night Observations

Wonder where I've been? Wonder what I thought of the Monday Night game? You're in luck. I was gone for most of the last month, but I am back in full swing now. Obviously, the Packers-Bengals game had a lot of good stories tonight. The two biggest stories of the offseason were Chad Johnon trying to get out of Cincinnati and then Brett Favre trying to get back into football.

Here you can find my thoughts on the first half of the game.

Leave a comment there or here... or both.

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Rookie Wide Receivers

For the first time since the common draft began, the first round ended without a wide receiver having been selected. As explained by the fellas over at Cold, Hard Football Facts, first-round wide receivers often turn out to be busts. Of the 43 wide outs taken in the first round over the past ten years, only two have had 1,000-yard rookie seasons: Randy Moss (1998) and Michael Clayton (2005). The last time a rookie had a 1,000-yard seasons was Marques Colston in 2006, a seventh-round pick.

Still, historically -- as with every other position -- a vast majority of the highly-talented receivers come from the first round. Since none were taken in this year's draft, we'll look for a 1,000-yard receiver from the second round and beyond. Here I'll outline the wide receivers of this year's class that I think will have the most impact this season:

1. Devin Thomas: Although he will play second fiddle to Santana Moss, he should be able to overtake Antwaan Randle El on the depth chart. He is the perfect fit for the west coast offense that new head coach Jim Zorn will run. He will favor the pass like his mentor, Mike Holmgren, and Devin Thomas will reap the benefits of that. With Jason Campbell's big arm and a plethora of other skill players, Thomas should have a huge season.

2. James Hardy: The Bills are going to feature Hardy predominantly in the offense. Opposite of Lee Evans, they don't have an established threat at wide receiver (Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish are the top two), and they don't have a strong tight end. Young quarterback Trent Edwards will look to Hardy frequently as his safety blanket. A 6-foot-7, 220-pound product, he will definitely be able to fill that role.

3. Andre Caldwell: Although he slid a little bit further than he expected in the draft, he should out-produce his rookie teammate, Jerome Simpson. His wide receivers coach called him "more cable ready" than Simpson. He ran a 4.35 forty-yard dash at the combine, and he was amazingly dynamic after the catch at the University of Florida. He should be the third receiver behind Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

4. Limas Sweed: Ben Roethlisberger asked for a bigger target before the draft, and he got one with Limas Sweed. The Steelers have a pair of starters with Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward, but they featured three-wide receiver sets regularly last season. Sweed should fit into the role as the third wide receiver, and he should quickly become a favorite target of Roethlisberger.

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Mocking the Super Bowl

Well, here we are in February in my lovely hometown of Tampa, Fl. We ran through the regular season and the playoffs for both conferences to determine the matchup for Super Bowl XLIII. It'll be the Indianapolis Colts attempting to keep the Lombardi trophy in the Manning family for the third-consecutive season against the Dallas Cowboys trying to bring it back to the Lone Star state for the first time since Troy Aikman was under center.

Let's break from the brief game summaries of the playoffs and detail some more specific matchups.

Keys for the Colts:

1. Peyton Manning vs. the Dallas secondary. This should be a matchup that the Colts win easily. Dallas features a young, unproven secondary. There aren't many better route-running wide receivers than Reggie Wayne, and there aren't many more accurate quarterbacks than Manning. Odds are that the Dallas secondary would have to rely on the pass rush to disrupt Manning and his receivers.

2. Dallas Clark vs. the Dallas linebackers. If Marvin Harrison is healthy this season, the Colts would likely feature three-wide receiver sets for most of this game, leaving the Cowboys in nickel. They won't switch to dime because of the fear of Joseph Addai running all over the field, so a linebacker will be covering Clark -- who is basically a wide receiver. If Clark can go up the seam and keep drives alive, the Cowboys defense will not be coming off the field except to make way for the special teams unit to defend the PAT.

3. Bob Sanders in the box. The Cowboys would like to run the ball against a smaller defense in the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have one small advantage over other Tampa 2 defenses, and his name is Bob Sanders. Sanders will need to be in the box almost exclusively -- save for a few passing downs -- to help contain the powerful Marion Barber III. It'd be wild to see those two hit each other at full speed.

Keys for the Cowboys:

1. Offensive line vs. defensive line. This is the Cowboys best matchup against the Colts. The Colts, who feature a small defensive line that has a tendency to get worn down toward the end of games, face the biggest offensive line in football. It's important for the Cowboys to both protect Tony Romo (because the Indianapolis secondary is good) and open up lanes in the running game.

2. Jason Witten vs. the Indy linebackers. Jason Witten is a monster of a tight end. He's an excellent blocker and pass-catcher, and he is very, very large. That doesn't bode well for the undersized Indianapolis linebackers. Witten will need to be able to catch tough passes over the middle and break tackles after he does. This could open up the outside passing game a little more for Romo and T.O.

3. The 3-4 rush vs. the Colts offensive line. The Colts line, although it has gotten better in recent years, has historically struggled against pressure from 3-4 defenses. This is because it's harder to anticipate where the pressure might be coming from. The Cowboys have some of the best pass-rushing outside linebackers in the game, and if they can knock around Peyton Manning early in the game, they have a chance of disrupting him for the entirety of it.

This would be a high-scoring game, and while it might not be as exciting at last year's Super Bowl, it will certainly attract a large audience as America's team faces off against another very popular team in the Indianapolis Colts. There are plenty of stars on each team, and the each coaching staff would have a great game plan in place. Ultimately, though, we have to go with the more experienced team in Indianapolis. The Cowboys will make it interesting for three quarters, but the Colts pull away in the end.

Indianapolis wins the first-ever Mocking the Draft Super Bowl, 34-24.

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NFC Playoff Predictions

After running through our AFC predictions up to the AFC Championship game, it's time to take Matt Miller's NFC regular season predictions into prime time. Here is how the seeding broke down in the NFC:

1. New Orleans Saints (14-2): NFC South Champs; head-to-head victory over Vikings
2. Minnesota Vikings (14-2): NFC North Champs
3. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4): NFC East Champs by virtue of better division record than Cowboys
4. Seattle Seahawks (11-5): NFC West Champs
5. Dallas Cowboys (12-4): 2nd place, NFC East; top NFC Wild Card
6. New York Giants (9-7): 3rd place, NFC East; lower wild card

In total, the three teams on this list who didn't make the playoffs last year are the three teams in the top seeds. The Saints finished 7-9 last season, and the Vikings and Eagles both finished at 8-8. This season, they combine for just eight losses. Here is how the playoffs might look from this field of teams:

Wild Card Round:

Philadelphia Eagles (3) lose to New York Giants (6): The defending Super Bowl champs once again slide into the playoffs, but they won't duck out so quickly. With a still fierce pass rush, the shaky Philadelphia line will have trouble protecting Donovan McNabb. This game would showcase a lot of young talent, though, and it could be a new great divisional rivalry in the NFL.

Seattle Seahawks (4) lose to Dallas Cowboys (5): The Cowboys are not a bad team at the five seed, they just are stuck in a stacked division. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are in one of the least competitive divisions in the NFL. Tony Romo will have to finally get over his playoff jitters, and with the help of 20 carries from Marion Barber III and a vastly improved secondary, he will. The Cowboys have too much talent, and the Seahawks lose their last game with coach Holmgren.

Divisional Round:

New Orleans Saints (1) defeat New York Giants (6): The Saints improved defense is enough to take the Giants out of the playoffs. In what would feature two of the best running back tandems in the game, McCallister-Bush and Jacobs-Bradshaw, the edge goes to the offensive firepower of the Drew Brees-led Saints.

Minnesota Vikings (2) lose to Dallas Cowboys (5): The Vikings are the surprise team of this season, led on the ground by first-year star Adrian Peterson. The Cowboys have a fierce front seven on defense and one of the best offensive lines in football, so they have the ability to neutralize the strengths of the Vikings. With a ball-hawking secondary, Tarvaris Jackson could be in for a rough day.

NFC Championship Game:

New Orleans Saints (1) lose to Dallas Cowboys (5): This would be an exciting playoff game featuring two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Romo and Brees. They both lead awesome aerial attacks that are supplemented by strong running games. The Cowboys, however, have the ability to apply pressure to the quarterback and have valuable, talented depth in the secondary. In an offensive onslaught, the Cowboys make it back to the Super Bowl.

So the Mocking the Draft Super Bowl will feature the Dallas Cowboys versus the Indianapolis Colts in Tampa. Check back in a few days to see who takes home the Lombardi trophy.

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AFC Playoff Predictions

As I noted in the comments section beneath Matt's post, I have determined through the NFL's rigorous 12-step playoff tiebreaking rules -- although I only had to go to step 2... don't tell anyone -- who would make the playoffs in Matt's predicted AFC field. So here is how the seeding broke down, with some explanations as to how it turned out like it did:

1. San Diego Chargers (14-2): AFC West Champs, best record overall in AFC
2. Indianapolis Colts (13-3): AFC South Champs by virtue of a better division record than Jacksonville, head-to-head tie breaker with New England
3. New England Patriots (13-3): AFC East Champs, better record than Pittsburgh
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5): AFC North Champs
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (13-3): 2nd place AFC South, top wild card
6. Cleveland Browns (9-7): 2nd place AFC North, wild card by virtue of 2-0 record versus Broncos and Bills

As you can see, the playoff field looks quite similar to last year's. This could be the case with a top-heavy AFC. So, although my predictions would probably be different than Matt's (and so would yours, and yours, and yours), here is what I would predict emerging from this playoff field:

Wild Card Round:

New England Patriots (3) defeat Cleveland Browns (6): For the city of Cleveland, and for a proud Browns franchise, this would be a welcome return to the playoffs. However, there couldn't be a more difficult place to play the game than New England. Brady and Belichick are undefeated in Foxborough in the playoffs at 8-0.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5) defeat Pittsburgh Steelers (4): In a rematch of last year's thrilling wild card matchup, the Steelers would come out with a lot of motivation. In the game this past January, the Jaguars benefitted from a huge non-call on David Garrard's famous 32-yard run on the fourth-and-two play late in the game. There was an obvious hold on the play. Still, with the Steelers' shaky offensive line, and the Jaguars front four that now features Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves, the Jags once again prevail.

Divisional Round:

Jacksonville Jaguars (5) defeat San Diego Chargers (1): As the Chargers once again prove, being the one seed isn't all it's cracked up to be. This Jacksonville team is so talented on both sides of the ball. "But Dave, so are the Chargers," you might be thinking. You're exactly right. However, the Jaguars coaching staff is exponentiall better than that of the Chargers. The Jags have two coordinators who have been head coaches. The Chargers head coach should still be a coordinator.

Indianapolis Colts (2) defeat New England Patriots (3): You have to respect New England's chances to win any game in the playoffs, and they are certainly getting hungrier with each passing season that they fail to hold that Lombardi trophy up again. However, the Colts will return an extremely young, yet experienced defense that boasts what I'll call the best secondary in the NFL. The Patriots used to get in the Colts' heads, but that won't happen in Lucas Oil Field, which will see a great first playoff game of many to come.

AFC Championship Game:

Indianapolis Colts (2) defeat Jacksonville Jaguars (5): Wow. What a matchup this would be in the AFC Championship Game. Besides Colts-Patriots here, there wouldn't be a game that would be more fun to watch. According to Matt, these teams will split their regular season matchups, with the home team winning each contest. I don't see this game being any different. I'd call this one a defensive struggle with a big play from Reggie Wayne being the difference.

So there you have it, the AFC playoff predictions. Matt will be bringing you the NFC regular season predictions soon, and I'll follow that up with NFC playoff predictions based off of them. Then -- most likely in a separate post -- we'll unveil the MTD Super Bowl winner.

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Rookie Running Backs

Unlike the quarterback position, rookie running backs -- especially those taken on the first day of the NFL Draft -- are expected to contribute almost immediately. While none of the running backs in this class are expected to have the kind of impact that Adrian Peterson (1,341 yards, 5.6 yards per carry, 12 touchdowns) had last season as a rookie, many should be expected to perform similarly to how Bills running back Marshawn Lynch did as a rookie last year: 1,115 yards (4.0 ypc) and 7 touchdowns.

Here, I'll outline the running backs from the 2008 draft class I think will have the most impact this season:

1. Rashard Mendenhall: Easily one of the most electric backs in college football last season, Mendenhall enters a Pittsburgh team that is pretty thin at running back. Mendenhall has more talent and a wider range of abilities than incumbent starter Willie Parker, who despite leading the league in rushing before suffering a broken leg last season, was not performing exceptionally (he only scored two touchdowns). Mendenhall could end up being the starter, with Parker as a change-of-pace back before too long.

2. Matt Forte: It's no secret that the Bears were not pleased with the performance of former fourth-overall pick, Cedric Benson, last season. Much to his dismay, Matt Forte has looked good in mini-camps so far. A favorite of New Era Scouting, Forte could be the Thomas Jones in the running back rotation before too long -- moving Benson to the bench save for about 5-10 carries a game.

3. Kevin Smith: The Lions were rumored to be looking for a running back as early as round one. With the dearth of talent at the position, it would not have been a reach. They chose instead to take an offensive tackle Gosder Cherilus (Boston College), selecting Smith with the first pick in the third round. However, Smith will be running in a similar offense to the one he played in at UCF because new Lions offensive coordinator Jim Colleto worked with his UCF offensive coordinator, Tim Salem, at Purdue. That, coupled with Lions coaches wanting Tatum Bell to have only about 10-15 carries a game, bode well for Smith.

Now I know some of you are wondering how Darren McFadden and Jonathan Stewart didn't make this list, but that's because they are both going to be battling very strong starters on their respective teams. McFadden will be behind 1,000-yard rusher Justin Fargas and competing with first-round talent Michael Bush. Stewart, while battling a foot injury, will try to unseat DeAngelo Williams, who averaged five yards a pop last season.

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Rookie Quarterbacks

It's not as rare as it once was to see a quarterback start multiple games during his rookie year. Coaches don't get five or six years anymore to prove their worth, so they often turn to rookie quarterbacks to buy more time. A good example of this is in Kansas City where G.M. Carl Peterson and coach Herm Edwards might have saved themselves under the guise of the development of Brodie Croyle.

Sometimes the light comes on after a few years, like for Steve Young who was pretty bad in two years with Tampa and then waited for three years in San Francisco before finally taking the reins. Other players, like Peyton Manning, learn the game by fire -- it costs the team in the short-term (his rookie year, the Colts went 3-13), but it can have tremendous benefits after that.

Here are the most likely rookies quarterbacks to start this year:

1. Joe Flacco: The Ravens are in need of a quarterback, and Troy Smith and Kyle Boller are their only other options. I doubt Flacco will start from day one, but as weeks wear on, and the starters underperform, he'll get his shot.

2. Matt Ryan: as the future of the franchise, Ryan could take over as early as day one. With a depth chart that includes Chris Redman, Joey Harrington, and D.J. Shockley, it's not unimagineable. New coach Mike Smith and new G.M. Thomas Dimitroff will try to do the smart thing, though, and let him learn on the sidelines for as long as possible.

3. John David Booty: The Vikings are a team that believe they're on the verge of the playoffs, and it's true. They are a consistent quarterback away from challenging for the top spot in the NFC North. Incumbent starter Tarvaris Jackson has been marred by injuries and inconsistency, and the pro-ready John David Booty will be lurking in the shadows.

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