SBNation.com User Blog: Dave In Spain

Dwight Gooden 1985 MLB

Dave In Spain — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 17:14:54 -0000

At age 20:
24-4 1.53 ERA .965 WHIP 229 ERA+
35 GS, 16 CG, 277 IP, 69 BB/268 K

For those of you too young to have seen it, it was truly awesome.

Who gets cut from the 40 man?

Dave In Spain — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 15:31:54 -0000

OK, if you had to cut 4 guys from the 40 man roster to accomodate possible recent MiL invitees, who would they be?
I´d cut Gonzalez Germen, Reese Havens, Lutz, and either Elvin Ramirez or Greg Burke.

Ok, if the Dickey deal happens who would you try to acquire via trade for the OF?...

Dave In Spain — Sun, 16 Dec 2012 13:23:02 -0000

Ok, if the Dickey deal happens who would you try to acquire via trade for the OF? Rules/assumptions: Must be a prospect or young major leaguer (pre-FA). Preferably RH.
I was thinking that both the A´s and CWS need a 3B for the future. So:
Grant Green from the A´s (for Flores straight up)? Green is a 2B converting to CF, 5th best A´s prospect via MLB, and is blocked.
LF Dayan Viciedo from the CWS (for Flores and a pitcher- Familia/deGrom...). A power hitting RH OFer, would be better than Duda both offensively and defensively. (I´d trade Duda too, to an AL team in need of a 1B/DH, but that´s another Shot.)
Any other targets?

Trade for King Felix? Would you trade Duda, Flores, and Gee for Felix Hernandez of the Ms? Possible...

Dave In Spain — Mon, 02 Jul 2012 10:57:28 -0000

Trade for King Felix?
Would you trade Duda, Flores, and Gee for Felix Hernandez of the Ms? Possible add-ons: Omar Q.(they need some offense everywhere, but particularly at SS), Murphy. Possible other add-ons: Bay (he´s from Vancouver area), Brandon League.

I wonder when Boras, other agents, and the union start pressuring Selig behind the scenes to do...

Dave In Spain — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 16:48:13 -0000

I wonder when Boras, other agents, and the union start pressuring Selig behind the scenes to do something about the Wilpons. Having one of the two NY teams out of the game on FAs is really hurting their bargaining power. Or maybe they´re willing to wait a year, knowing that Selig is retiring after the season and that things might change then.

Bay, Niese, and Flores for F.DuBront (p), Wes Middlebrook (3B), J.Reddick or R.Kalish (OF), DiceK...

Dave In Spain — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 10:58:33 -0000

Bay, Niese, and Flores for F.DuBront (p), Wes Middlebrook (3B), J.Reddick or R.Kalish (OF), DiceK (to even out the salary), and R.Lavarnaway (c).
Mets need a 3B if DW gets traded next year. DuBront is out of options, but has potential. DiceK is injured and won't play anyway, but evens out the salary swap a little. Reddick/Kalish to fill in in RF (Duda to LF). Lavarnaway isn´t D´Arnaud, but he's an OK C prospect. Thoughts? [Note: this post originally said Maine instead of Niese. Pure brainfart, or early onset Alzheimer´s? You decide...] ;-}

Why I would listen to offers for Wright.

Dave In Spain — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 13:17:22 -0000

While I've enjoyed watching David Wright play for the Mets the past few years, and while he's certainly a very good player, I understand the arguments that it is time to listen to offers for him. He's been ¨the face of the franchise¨, but given the results the past few years, is that a good thing? The losing hasn't been his fault--he's given his utmost. But I've been thinking about the following points a lot recently:

1. Wright will turn 29 in December. The Mets control his age 29 and age 30 seasons, via his current contract and option.

2. The Mets realistically won't truly contend for the playoffs in this division before 2014, after Wright's contract is up. Maybe the end of 2013, but that would be if everything went our way, and when was the last time that happened?

3. His contract will come up for renewal for his year 31-35 seasons, clearly the decline phase for most players, and he will command big money. Do we want to pay for his decline years?

4. If the Mets trade him now (or mid-season if he's hot) could they get prospects who would be ready when our in-house prospects are establishing themselves and/or hitting their prime? Or young players who already have a foothold in the majors who can be established contributors when the rest of our prospects arrive/mature? (I'm thinking a Chad Bettis (p)+ Nathan Arenold (3B) type package or prospects, or another package based around a strong catcher and pitching).

5. When Wright says that his back is still stiff in the mornings, that makes me nervous. I went through the 30 year-old barrier a long time ago, and know from personal experience how nagging pains drag on you as you get older. How will this affect his on-field production?

6. These same arguments apply regardless of money available. Even if the Mets had the money now, I don´t think the parts to make the team ready to challenge for the playoffs in 2012 are available, either via trade or FA.

I recognize that the lineup would be weaker in the short-term without him (depending what we got back in trade, of course), and that there is an additive effect due to lineup protection and his loss might affect Davis/Duda/Bay. But that would be for years when we´re not likely to be competitive anyway. I strongly believe that the basis for any team is pitching much more than offense. The more top talent we can acquire to go along with Wheeler/Harvey/ Familia/Mejia/et.al the better the chance of having guys stick in the majors and contributing when we're ready to be competitive again. If Reyes goes (and even if he stays), we're in a rebuilding stage, a major-retooling stage, or at the very least a waiting stage, mostly due to questions about the pitching staff. So looking toward the future and trying to view this objectively, I think it is time to listen to offers for Wright, and if the right package comes along, to pull the trigger on it. If the (W)right offer doesn´t come along, hang onto him until it does. But at least listen.

1. Wright will turn 29 in December. The Mets control his age 29 and age 30 seasons, via his current contract and option.

3. His contract will come up for renewal for his year 31-35 seasons, clearly the decline phase for most players, and he will command big money. Do we want to pay for his decline years?

Too late for AAOP

Dave In Spain — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 16:21:09 -0000

Ok, I´m going to take another crack at this, despite and because of all the critical comments about my first attempt. I know it´s too late to be considered, but what the heck.

Starting points:

1.The Mets won´t challenge for the playoffs in 2012, but would like to be competitive as they build towards 2013/2014 and the arrival of some of their prospects.

2. Jose Reyes will choose to sign elsewhere, and Tejada will play SS. Not what I believe should happen, just what I believe is inevitable. (NB- Please don´t debate Reyes here. It´s been done to death. Just accept this as an assumption and go from there. Thanks.)

3. Mets will not trade Wright.

4. Bay is unmoveable. Worth keeping around to see if he rebounds.

5. One of their biggest needs, if not the biggest, is starting pitching. Their offense was decent in 2012 (the loss of Wright and Davis for large chunks of 2011 will be offset by the loss of Beltran and Reyes for 2012), but the pitching was sub-par. They need better innings, and can´t count on Santana to be the Johan of old. A better rotation improves the pen too.

So, release the hounds!

1. Trade Pelfrey, Turner, Collin McHugh (who had a very low HR rate and very high GB/FB ratio at AA), and possibly Beato or Parnell to Colorado for Huston Street, OF Seth Smith, and pitching prospect Chad Bettis. Street is mostly to even out the payroll in the deal but can play a role in the pen. Bettis is the prime target; he has great K:BB ratios, which is one of my complaints about Mets pitchers. Smith is RF filler until we can evaluate Cap´n Kirk/Vaughn/etc.

2. Trade Gee, Murphy, Gorski, Parnell or Beato (whoever isn´t in the CO deal), and maybe Flores or Tapia to CWS for Gavin Floyd. A28 yo RHP with a good pitcher´s body, Floyd is controllable for 2 more years and cost-certain. He can give you innings with much better peripherals than Pelfrey. Won´t block the young prospects, as his 2013 option can be declined, or accepted and traded if the Mets prospects come on like gangbusters in 2012. CWS reportedly wants to scale back, and doesn´t have many prospects.

3. Here I have two options:

3a: Trade Duda, Bettis or Familia, and a lower level prospect (like Flores/Tapia/Whitenton type) toTampa for either James Shields or David Price. Tampa needs a 1B and DH, or possibly a LF-- Duda fits this profile. While TB doesn´t like giving up young pitchers, they are well stocked and we would send them Familia/Bettis. They had the second lowest attendance in MLB, and lost money in spite of making the playoffs.

or 3b: Trade Duda, Familia/Mejia, and FMart to Oakland for Gio Gonzalez. While not as good as the dynamic duo from Tampa (Gio walks a lot of guys), he´s still pretty good, and controllable. Oak had MLBs lowest attendance, needs offense, and faces serious uncertainty because of ballpark issues.

4. Another two options for getting a C.

4a: Trade Valdespin and C Juan Centeno or A. Cordero to SF for AAA C Hector Sanchez. Sanchez is ready to step in, and the Giants have Buster Posey; they also have catching backups and another C prospect in their Top 10. They could use offense in the middle IF.

or 4b: Trade Valdespin and Centeno/Cordero to the Reds for Catcher Y. Grandal. He´s a little further away than Sanchez, so I prefer option 4a, but he might be ready in 2013. Reds have another good young catcher in Masoraco, so they could spare Grandal for needed middle IF depth and a possible replacement for Phillips after 2012.

5. Sign FA 2B/ss Jamey Carroll (2 yr, 5-6mill), RP Dan Wheeler. and Jonathan Broxton.

6. Resign M Batista as insurance/swingman. We don´t know for sure if Santana will be ready, so it´s a cheap worthwhile gamble. Yes he´s almost as old as me, but he did OK in limited duty in 2011.

7. Non-tender Paulino.

Note: I´d include Lagares if it was a deciding extra factor in getting Floyd, Price/Shields, or Gonzalez.

The team in 2012:

SP:

Santana $24 mill

Shields/Price/Gonzalez $7mill-ish

Dickey $4.5 mil

G. Floyd $7mil

Niese $0.5mil

Pen:

Broxton $4mil

Street $7mil

Wheeler $3mil

Byrdak $2.5mil

Batista $1mil

Schwinden $0.5

C: Thole $0.5

1B: Davis $0.5

2B: Carroll $3mill

SS: Tejada $0.5 mill

3B: DW $15mill

LF: Bay $18mill

CF: Pagan $5mill (no, I´m not wild about him, but there aren´t a lot of other options and we have prospects for 2013)

RF: Smith $2.5mill

Bench:

Sanchez (C) $0.5

Evans ($0.5)

Baxter ($0.5)

Harris ($1.5mil)

Satin/Lutz/other ($0.5)

Total: $108mill-ish

Did I give up some prospects? Yes, but I got proven ML talent. Did I give up young ML talent? Yes, but either marginal back end rotation (Pelf, Gee) or out of position and defensively challenged(Duda). Did I block any prospects for 2013/2014? Not seriously. Did I decrease long-term flexibility? No. Did I improve the team and make it competitive for 2012? I think so. I hope so.

Ok, I´m going to take another crack at this, despite and because of all the critical comments about my first attempt. I know it´s too late to be considered, but what the heck.

Starting points:

1.The Mets won´t challenge for the playoffs in 2012, but would like to be competitive as they build towards 2013/2014 and the arrival of some of their prospects.

3. Mets will not trade Wright.

4. Bay is unmoveable. Worth keeping around to see if he rebounds.

So, release the hounds!

3. Here I have two options:

4. Another two options for getting a C.

5. Sign FA 2B/ss Jamey Carroll (2 yr, 5-6mill), RP Dan Wheeler. and Jonathan Broxton.

6. Resign M Batista as insurance/swingman. We don´t know for sure if Santana will be ready, so it´s a cheap worthwhile gamble. Yes he´s almost as old as me, but he did OK in limited duty in 2011.

7. Non-tender Paulino.

Note: I´d include Lagares if it was a deciding extra factor in getting Floyd, Price/Shields, or Gonzalez.

The team in 2012:

SP:

Santana $24 mill

Shields/Price/Gonzalez $7mill-ish

Dickey $4.5 mil

G. Floyd $7mil

Niese $0.5mil

Pen:

Broxton $4mil

Street $7mil

Wheeler $3mil

Byrdak $2.5mil

Batista $1mil

Schwinden $0.5

C: Thole $0.5

1B: Davis $0.5

2B: Carroll $3mill

SS: Tejada $0.5 mill

3B: DW $15mill

LF: Bay $18mill

CF: Pagan $5mill (no, I´m not wild about him, but there aren´t a lot of other options and we have prospects for 2013)

RF: Smith $2.5mill

Bench:

Sanchez (C) $0.5

Evans ($0.5)

Baxter ($0.5)

Harris ($1.5mil)

Satin/Lutz/other ($0.5)

Total: $108mill-ish

Who is Jose Reyes?

Dave In Spain — Sun, 23 Oct 2011 12:14:00 -0000

Actually, that´s the wrong question. What Sandy Alderson needs to ask is ¨Who will Jose Reyes be, and for how long?¨ We can assume that he will continue to be the dynamic personality he has always been, but in terms of performance where is he going? Is he the batting champion of the .337 avg, or is he the guy who prior to this year averaged .287? Is he the guy who used to average 158 games per season, but over the past two has averaged 130? Will he have an OBA of .384 like in 2011, or .350 which was a typical season prior to this year? Sandy knows that Free Agents usually get paid for past performance, but what he needs to decide is whether that will continue and whether it warrants the king´s ransom he´ll probably be offered elsewhere.

AAOP: setting the stage for the future

Dave In Spain — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 14:44:24 -0000

OK, I´ll start by saying that I don´t think the Mets will be truly competitive in 2012 regardless of what they do. They can, however, be respectable and set the stage for 2013 and especially 2014, when I believe they will be competitive. The fact is that the team has a number of prospects coming at SP (or maybe RP), 2B, and OF who are not quite ready, or need more time for an accurate evaluation of what they can contribute. So I propose the following:

1. Let Reyes walk. Don´t get me wrong, I love the guy, but I firmly believe that some team will step up and offer him 6 years at big money, and I don´t think the Mets should do that, for all the reasons that have been discussed ad nauseum elsewhere. Tejada plays SS.

2. Trade Pelfrey, Duda, Pagan, Paulino, and Collin McHugh (who had a great GB ratio at AA and only allowed 2 HR all year) to CO for Dexter Fowler, Huston Street, Chris Ianetta, 3B prospect Nolan Arenado and one of their pitching prospects--maybe Chad Bettis (I don´t think we could get Pomerantz unless it´s a bigger deal that includes Wright.). Reasons: CO wants OF stability and SPs who can pitch a lot of innings. They have a catcher that´s almost ready. Mets want/need a closer, a CF, a C to catch some and mentor Thole, quality prospects, as well as a 3B should they decide to let Wright go in a year or two. Street has one year remaining on his deal, at which point the Mets should know better if Mejia and Familia will be starters or relievers. Fowler can be our CF in the future, leaving Cap´n Kirk for RF long-term, if he develops as we hope and stays healthy. Or he could be traded in a year if we were lucky enough to get Matt Kemp as a FA next year.

3. Sign Javier Vazquez to a 2 year $15 million deal. Outside of his stint with the Yankees he´s pitched well, and the 200ish innings he pitches will be higher quality that Pelfrey provides. He´ll be a good transition pitcher until Harvey/Z.Wheeler/Familia/Bettis/Mejia are ready, and a much better #2/3 than Pelfrey.

4. Sign RHRP Dan Wheeler and LHRP George Sherrill for the pen (or better J.Affeldt if his option isn´t picked up). $3-3.5 mill should do it for each.

5. Sign 2B/SS Jamey Carroll to a 2 year $4mil deal. He can play either position, mentor Murphy/Havens/Valdespin, or come off the bench.

6. Trade Gorski, FMart, and another low minors prospect to Tampa for BJ Upton. He could play CF or RF. He has 1 year left on his deal, which would allow the Mets more time to evaluate Cap'n Kirk, DenDekker, and Vaughn.

7. Re-sign Willie Harris.

8. Re-sign Miguel Batista as a long man/ spot starter.

Opening Day Roster

RHSP - J. Santana-- $23 million

RHSP- J. Vazquez-- $7.5 million

RHSP- RA Dickey-- $4.5 million

LHSP--J. Niese-- $0.45 million

RHSP- Dillon Gee--$0.45 million

CL- Huston Street -- $7 million

L-Tim Byrdak- $2.5 mill (?)

R-Dan Wheeler- $3 mill

L-George Sherrill- $3 mill

R-Manny Acosta- $1.5 mil

R- M. Batista- $1.5 mil

R- Parnell- $0.45 mil

C- Thole--$0.45

1B- Davis- $0.5

2B- J. Carroll- $2 mill

SS- Tejada-- $0.45

3B- Wright-- $16 mill

LF- Bay-- $18 mill

CF-- Fowler-- $2 mill

RF-- Upton --$7 mill

Bench-

C-Ianetta- $4 mill

IF- Murphy--$0.6 mil

IF/OF- Harris--$1.5 mil

OF--Baxter/Nieuwenhuis- $0.45 mill

IF- Evans/Lutz/Satin $0.45

Total payroll: $108.5 million

I think these moves give the Mets a chance to be respectable in 2012, change the chemistry, preserve flexibility for the future, and fill some gaps until prospects develop further or are more accurately evaluated. We might well see some of those rookies have cups of coffee in 2012, or even step into pen/bench roles in preparation for 2013. A better plan, emerging rookies, and respectable performance might make the team more attractive to FAs post-2012 too. I´m not expecting much next year, but some new faces that don´t block our top prospects, or do provide a potential long-term answer would be a breath of fresh air.