SB Nation User Blog: Dave.Phuller

Sweet, sweet carbonation

Dave.Phuller — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 02:30:27 -0000

With all of the games we've been having with playoff aspirations attached to them, we cannot forget to keep a light and happy attitude on us going into the heart of a festive holiday season.

I'm going to do what I can to spark some fun, interesting debate on something that isn't tied to our favorite common love, but is still another favorite common love (for some of us, anyway):

Beer.

I'm merely a 21-year-old, and turned so this past October. Suffice to say, I did not begin enjoying beers on the 24th of that month. I did, however, begin to truly ENJOY beers after that date. I now look for actual taste, sense the flavors and the aroma, and take sips for reasons other than to kill my brain cells with fermentation.

Now that I've truly begun to get into what these brews were, well, brewed for, I would like to have a spirited (no pun intended) talk about it with those of you who find similar interest. Whether it's craft or not, ale, lager, IPA, etc. etc., and as long as the I in the Sky OKs it, let's keep this strictly beer to keep our tempers in check and get to know more about our fellow fans.

If you want a guideline to start things off, you can talk about your favorite beer(s), reminisce about the day you first tasted it(/them), or just discuss the ideal blend of hops, barley, wheat, whatever. Enjoy!

Sorry, Buffett. Landshark Lager just is not good beer.

Ask the Miami Dolphins

Dave.Phuller — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 04:23:21 -0000

Greetings! I am not The Phinsider's lead blogger, but I am a regular contributor and would consider myself very informed on the general perspectives and opinions shared on that site and on the team in general.

This Sunday brings another crucial matchup for the Dolphins, as well as the Titans for their playoff chances. Losing would be a huge blow to our shot at making the post-season, and winning would give your team a fighting chance.

Vince Young has a hammy injury, but it is said to be mild; time will tell how that situation plays out. However, I'm not here to ask the questions: you guys are!

If you have any that you would like to be answered, I would be glad to help (alongside any other Phinsider bloggers who catch this post from our site and contribute).

Please don't take this as arrogance, I am simply thankful to the blogging sites who do this over at our home and would like to return the favor to another opponent who I would hope will give us a very competitive matchup for our playoff lives.

Ask away!

Patrick Turner: The diamond is worth the rough

Dave.Phuller — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:15:59 -0000

It's been a while since the last time I've taken the time to analyze one of our lesser-known or under-proven players in a way hopefully nobody else has. In doing so, I hope to broaden our perspectives and spark debate on a player some Miami fans now see as an after-thought.

You might recall my defending the selection of Patrick Turner, the 6'5", 220 lb. receiver out of the University of Southern California. I likened him to former great possession-receiver Orande Gadsden in a rather long comparison of a few various players (this won't be quite as long, but still lengthy), and as of today, he's far from panning out. I haven't stepped back from that defense, however, and I won't now. Why?

Malcolm Floyd, Miles Austin, and Vincent Jackson tell me not to.

Case No. 1: Malcolm Floyd

The 6'5", 225 lb. undrafted free agent out of Wyoming (preceded by River City High School, now how bad-ass is that?) bears the closest resemblance (body structure-wise) to our very own Patty T. Some of Floyd's pre-draft measurables (he wasn't invited to the 2004 NFL Combine) were as follows: 4.44s-40, 4.18s-20 (shuttle), and a 38 in (96.5 cm) vertical. How does this match up to Turner's combine results? Turner ran a 4.59s-40, 4.20s-20, and had a 34.5 in vertical on his Pro Day. Turner is not as fast as Floyd, though they're nearly identical in size, but he matches up well in the 20 yard shuttle and jumps only a few inches shorter than Floyd.

Though Turner isn't as "athletic" as Floyd given the other similarities between them, Turner played well in college and had a "break-out" his senior year. That season, along with his measurables, were enough for Miami to take him in the third round in 2009.

What has Floyd done in the NFL? With QB Drew Brees throwing to him, Malcolm spent the first year adapting to the speed of the NFL to the tune of 3 catches for 49 yards and a score. All of that production came in the final game of the season, Week 17, though he "played" in four games. Two years later (he missed a year, injury?) was more promising with 15 receptions for 210 yards and three times across the goal line. Then, another year of production-less games: 7 balls caught for 97 yards and no scores over six games. He vastly improved last year with 27 catches for 465 yards and four TDs, and is having his break-out season this year with Chris Chambers finally gone. In 13 games, Floyd has caught another 29 balls for 518 yards and a score. His past four has been more impressive, hauling in 13 passes for 193 yards. Now that he's starting, he's beginning to display why he was a MWC honorable mention his senior season.

Case No. 2: Miles Austin

Another undrafted free agent, this one out of Monmouth (the curse of Monmouth strikes John Nalbone?). Miles and Miles Austin is a 6'3", 214 lb. wideout who also had little-to-no production in his initial season. As a matter of fact, nevermind the little-to part. He had none while being active in nine games. Austin ran both a 4.51s- and a 4.52s-40 in the combine back in 2006, ran a 4.14s 20-yard shuttle, had a 40.5 in vertical, but wasn't taken by any team until after each of the seven draft rounds ended. Then, the Cowboys saw something in him.

This is my strongest case by far: remember what team Jeff Ireland was Vice President of College and Pro Scouting with while Austin was plucked off the UDFA list? Dallas. We see comparisons in Turner's size and athleticism with Austin as well, and once again, Turner has the pedigree over Austin here. Let's see what Miles did at the start of his NFL career and what he's doing now:

As I stated, no catches for Miles in 2006 wihle being active for nine games. The following season, five catches for 76 yards over a full 16-game season. Last season, he caught 13 passes for 278 yards and three scores over a 12-game span. Then, something interesting happened.

Dallas was reportedly willing to tender the highest offer to Austin in order to keep him from leaving as a restricted free agent at the end of the season. I'm sure a lot of you remember the interest we showed in the receiver we all knew had the potential to shine. Did anybody see that potential after his first, useless season? Most people outside of Dallas insiders probably knew too little to have any positive attitude about him. Well, guess what: Terrell Owens is gone, and Roy Williams is not the receiver his trade price made him out to be. Not only that, but injuries strike every team and Miles Austin never let go of his starting opportunity.

Austin is exactly one yard away from his very first 1,000 yard season in this, his fourth season in the league. He also caught his tenth score after last week's game, and appears to be downright dominant. He is THE number one receiver in Dallas. He's Tony's new favorite receiver (nevermind Jason Witten, sorry buddy--I own you in my fantasy league, too), and he will thrive as long as he's in this system with this quarterback for a long time.

Case No. 3: Vincent Jackson

This is the best comparison with Patrick Turner from a body size and pedigree standpoint, and is the receiver I hope to see Patrick become when he's ready. Vincent stands a tall 6'5" and weighs 230 lbs., much like our man. Jackson was drafted out of Northern Colorado in 2005, a second round selection because of his production, talent, and measurables. Sound familiar? If only Jackson went to a big-name (major) school, this comparison would be nearly identical.

Jackson attended the 2005 combine, posting a 4.46s-40 and a 39 in vertical. Once again, more athletic than Patrick, but not by that wide of a margin. Otherwise, similar numbers. Jackson didn't truly begin to produce until Brees left and now-superstar QB Philip Rivers took over, but that was also his sophomore season. As is the trend with these three behemoths, VJ did squat in his rookie season. Well, unless you consider three catches for 59 yards over eight active games "something". With Rivers starting, Jackson stepped it up, posting 27 receptions for 453 yards and six times across the goal line. His "junior" season was one many expected to be his huge break-out season. Instead, many were disappointed by a mere 41 catches for 623 yards. Though it was progression (although he regressed to three scores), he was starting to look like a "bust" in terms of the potential people expected him to reach. He was appearing to be just another mediocre receiver drafted too early.

Then, things clicked within himself and between he and Rivers last season. 59 catches, 1,098 yards and seven 6-pointers later, Jackson was no longer under-achieving. He had arrived. This season is more of the same, as he is one catch away from eclipsing his career-high of 59 receptions set in 2008. He's also on pace for over 1,200 yards receiving.

What has me even more excited (or, I should say, less pessimistic about Turner's lack of ability to see the field in just his first season)? Jackson's YAC is a mere 3.0 career (3.6 last season, 2.6 this year) which tells me that he catches the ball and doesn't have the speed or power/moves to get away from tacklers after that happens. Who's still terribly worried about Turner getting jammed at the line or his inability to use burst to elude tacklers after the catch? Not me. Such performance out of Jackson is promising for what we know we have in Turner in terms of his strengths, weaknesses, and overall level of athleticism.

So, now what?

That rough might be years deep, but if situations similar to the aforementioned three break-out receivers tell us anything, a couple of years of waiting and development would be far more prudent than one year's worth of frustration leading to disownment. Or, worse, being cut. Even if he turns out to be a Malcom Floyd type, he'll be a receiver worth keeping for a handful of years and ultimately worth playing on the field.

Yes, these three players don't play the same way. They did, however, face similar situations and saw almost identical beginnings to their careers. Don't worry about his being inactive on game day quite yet; he isn't a bust. Consider this his redshirt season, and allow him to progress to the level where he does become a factor on Sundays (even if that's Malcolm Floyd-esque production and not Austin/Jackson). The speed of the NFL is far different from that in college, and Turner does have the skill, talent, ability, whatever you want to call it, to thrive in this league.

Remember, Chad Henne is still working on his consistency and developing his deep ball accuracy. Don't give up on this kid just yet.

"We knew Henne was an up-and-coming quarterback with a strong arm who could make plays," Patriots...

Dave.Phuller — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 06:23:54 -0000

"We knew Henne was an up-and-coming quarterback with a strong arm who could make plays," Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo said. "He threw the ball over 50 times, and when have you ever seen a Miami team do that?"

You'll have to forgive Mayo. The second-year man from Tennessee was 13 when Dan Marino hung 'em up after the 1999 season.

The kid was 4 the last time any Miami quarterback threw this many times in a victory. Marino's overtime conquest of the Eagles in 1990 required 54 tosses.

Of the 18 times in franchise history in which a quarterback has thrown 50 or more passes, the Dolphins have won just six. The first five victories belonged to Marino.

The Bucs' Connor Barth tied an NFL record held by three other kickers when he made three field...

Dave.Phuller — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 05:42:20 -0000

The Bucs' Connor Barth tied an NFL record held by three other kickers when he made three field goals of 50 yards or more. They covered 51, 50 and 54 yards -- the three longest kicks of his career.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=291115015

Can I just say

Dave.Phuller — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 04:16:14 -0000

Without being flamed as posting a FanPost with such a short message:

Rex Ryan is a moronic, pompous, ignorant, arrogant, embarrassing head coach.

Without cussing, this guy is just plain awful to listen to. Zero credit to us. Their defense made Henne look like Marino? How about Chad Henne made their defense look like the Rams of 2009.

What a horrible post-game press conference. Give us an ounce of damn credit when we earn it.

We have the best offensive line in the league, fellas. The best rushing attack in the league. And the best running back tandem in the league.

I no longer care who we're facing on defense. No sacks allowed. Little-to-no quarterback pressure.

We have us a quarterback. We have us an offense. We have us a win against our hated division rivals. Watch the hell out AFC East rivals, we are here to stay.

Can we get some respect?

Yes, we can.

ESPN: The Magazine - NFL Preview 2009

Dave.Phuller — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 21:16:17 -0000

I, as a fan of the Miami Dolphins, enjoy the fact that I received ESPN: The Magazine's 2009 NFL Preview issue on the exact same day as our other 2009 preview: Preseason Game 3, Miami at Tampa Bay.

Since my fellow Dolphins fans share all knowledge, insight, and information they find regarding our beloved team, I have decided to share the wealth back. I will post, as best I can, the analysis provided within this magazine to you all.

But first, I read a couple of interesting tid-bits in the pages preceding..

Page 58: insider SEEING IS BELIEVING

KC Joyner introduces his metric system known as ROBIN (results-oriented binary metric system) and explains what it entails. Detailed tape review is performed on every run block at the point of attack. Offensive linemen receive one of two grades: a win (said block results in a "viable running lane") or a loss (a roadblock is put up by the defender of said offensive lineman). Wins and losses are put together by each individual lineman to calculate POA (point-of-attack) win%.

Here are Joyner's best and worst offensive linemen in the NFL in three specific categories (overall, pull blocks, second-to-third level blocks):

BEST-OVERALL (Min. 50 POA Attempts)
PLAYER, POSITION, POA WIN%
1. Nick Mangold NYJ, C, 94.3%
2. Stephen Neal NE, RG, 94.0%
3. Marshal Yanda BAL, RG, 93.0%
4. Mike Goff SD, RG, 92.6%
5. Todd Weiner ATL, LT, 92.3%

WORST-OVERALL (Min. 50 POA Attempts)
PLAYER, POSITION, POA WIN%
1. Jacob Bell STL, LG, 70.7%
2. Lyle Sendlein ARI, C, 71.3%
3. Levi Jones CIN, LT, 72.0%
4. Andy Alleman MIA, LG, 73.1%
5. Tony Moll GB, RG/RT, 73.5%

BEST-PULL BLOCKS (Min. 32 Pulls)
PLAYER, POSITION, POA WIN%
1. Justin Smiley MIA, LG, 100.0%
2. Ryan Clady DEN, LT, 100.0%
3. Mike Goff SD, RG, 95.6%
4. Kris Dielman SD, LG, 94.7%
5. Rich Seubert NYG, LG, 93.4%

WORST-PULL BLOCKS (Min. 32 Pulls)
PLAYER, POSITION, POA WIN%
1. Mike Pollack IND, RG, 67.7%
2. Mike Wahle SEA, LG, 69.6%
3. Eugene Amano TEN, LG, 72.4%
4. Jacob Bell STL, LG, 72.7%
5. Chilo Rachal SF, RG, 73.7%

BEST-SECOND-TO-THIRD-LEVEL-BLOCKS (Min. 16 Blocks)
PLAYER, POSITION, POA WIN%
1. Pete Kendall Was, LG, 96.7%
2. Rich Sebuert NYG, LG, 94.4%
3. Casey Wiegmann DEN, C, 91.7%
4. Randy Thomas WAS, RG, 90.5%
5. Logan Mankins NE, LG, 90.0%

WORST-SECOND-TO-THIRD-LEVEL-BLOCKS (Min. 16 Blocks)
PLAYER, POSITION, POA WIN%
1. Lyle Sendlein ARI, C, 43.8%
2. Anthony Herrera MIN, RG, 52.4%
3. Jacob Bell STL, LG, 52.9%
4. Eugene Amano TEN, LG, 58.8%
5. Eric Steinbach CLE, LG, 63.2%

I brought this page up specifically to point out both Andy Alleman and Justin Smiley; Alleman was one of the five worst offensive linemen in the league last season when it came to winning the point of attack. In stark contrast, the original starter, Justin Smiley, was the best (OK, tied for the best) pulling lineman in the league at a perfect 100.0% POA win%. If he can stay healthy and play to last season's ability (and, additionally, if Donald Thomas adds his name to this list by season's end), we have the most dominant guards in the league at the point of attack. At least, on pulls. Running lanes, here we come.

While we're on this subject, I would like to point out that ANY pick we receive from Kansas City for Alleman et al. will be a steal based off of this information. The fact that it must be, at the very least, a sixth round pick -- well, that's just highway robbery.

Page 92: KC JOYNER'S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE

Joyner is back once again. This time, he uses his scientific analysis to list the five worst quarterbacks in the league on bad-decision rate. BD% is merely BD (bad decisions, or a throw which results in a pick or a near-pick) / ATT (passing attempts). What I find funny is that Jay Cutler tops this list in 1,263 pass attempts in Denver. What I find completely lacking of comedic value (yet intriguing because of how ironic it is) is who makes this list at #3 (technically, tied for #2 except for a difference in attempt volume):

QUARTERBACK, ATT, BD, BD%
1. Jay Cutler DEN/CHI, 1,263, 63, 5.0%
2. Ben Roethlisberger PIT, 1,363, 44, 3.2%
3. Chad Pennington NYJ/MIA, 1,244, 40, 3.2%
4. Matt Hasselbeck SEA, 1,168, 37, 3.2%
5. Jon Kitna DET/DAL, 1,320, 40, 3.0%

It's quite obvious why I bring this up. Yes, Pennington's attempts include those from previous years in New York, but was our offense last season honestly considered better than any of the offenses Chad Pennington quarterbacked in the years involved in this calculation? Probably not. I find it rather ironic that our sure-thing, accurate, big-game leader of a quarterback is listed here, specifically at #3. I'm not here to bring up any arguments, or discussions, or QB debate. I'm simply reiterating the facts which Mr. Joyner so graciously calculated for our informative purposes.

Yet, on the other side of the coin, Ben Roethlisberger is the actual #2 and put up the exact same BD% as our starter. On top of that, the Steelers are said to have had the worst rushing attack by a Steelers Championship team in their history with one of the weakest offensive lines to have won the trophy. I won't make any absurd comparisons, but..

Page 95: KC JOYNER'S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE

Joyner is the star of this blog posting with yet another mention. This time, the Football Scientist calculates the league's best YPA averages when the offensive line of said team does not blow a single block. He calls this scenario one which "levels the playing field for all backs". It also gives him a reason (legitimate or ridiculous) to call DeAngelo Williams better than Adrian Peterson (who ranks sixth on this list at 6.7 YPA). Minimum is set at 100 rushes (regardless of actual number of attempts with absolutely no blown blocks):

RUNNING BACK, ATT, YDS, YPA
1. Chris Johnson TEN, 143, 1,135, 7.9
2. DeAngelo Williams CAR, 173, 1,331, 7.7
3. Derrick Ward NYG, 118, 867, 7.3
4. Steve Slaton HOU, 152, 1,072, 7.1
5. Maurice Morris SEA, 68, 460, 6.8

This list may mean nothing on the surface. However, and I may be wrong to look at it this way, but I see this as a way to prove that we should not continue paying Ronnie Brown top five running back dollars. That does not mean I agree that we shouldn't pay him at the level we have been over the past handful of seasons, especially if he proves his relative lack of production truly was a result of poor offensive line play or injuries. It just means that it would make sense, in a business sense that is, not to re-sign him if we have to pay him to a level at which he does not produce (according to this measure, in the very least).

The fact that we have Patrick Cobbs (a Sparano favorite indeed) and Lex Hilliard waiting in the wings almost tells me that we won't pay him that type of money unless he were to take a Channing Crowder-esque pay-cut to stay, or absolutely dominates this season. Yes, Cobbs isn't suited to carry the ball more than 150 times in a season at most and Hilliard hasn't proven his consistency against top-tier defensive talent. Regardless, Parcells knows you can draft RB on the second day (see: Steve Slaton, #4 on this list), and it does not make sense to me that he would change his mind and pay Ronnie that heavily unless he were to prove, beyond reasonable doubt, that he is worth more to this team than his paycheck.

Ever the optimist/realist I am, I just don't see that happening.

Page 100: AFC EAST NFL Preview 2009

To start, the AFC East's Strength of Division DOVA is -8.7% (7th in the league). According to the double-asteriks at the bottom of the page, and I quote: "DVOA is a stat in which Football Outsiders analyzes a team's plays to determine how much better or worse that team is than an average NFL squad. So when the Jets have an opponents' DVOA of 4.0%, that means their competition is collectively 4.0% better than average."

What they said.

Here are three sections sure to rain on all of our collectively scheduled 2009 [victory] parades:

ENDS AND ODDS

TEAM, PROJECTED W-L, LIKELIHOOD OF: 0-3 WINS, 4-6 WINS, 7-8 WINS, 9-10 WINS, 11-PLUS WINS
1. Patriots, 11-5, 0%, 1%, 5%, 26%, 68%
2. Dolphins, 6-10, 8%, 46%, 29%, 15%, 2%
3. Jets, 6-10, 11%, 45%, 27%, 14%, 3%
4. Bills, 5-11, 19%, 55%, 18%, 7%, 1%

A), hahaha! How in the hell is it possible that the Jets have 3% greater chance of winning between 0-3 games than us, yet they have better odds of winning 11-plus? Ridiculous. The Patriots have a 1% chance of winning between 0-6 games, and a 6% chance of winning no more than eight. A 6% chance? Really? And on top of that, there's really a 2% chance that we win 11 or more games. Two per-cent. Two.

Football Outsiders' caption below Miami's projected W-L/%s:

No defense suffered fewer injuries in 2008, a fact which papered over the team's lack of depth. The Fins tried to remedy that problem by drafting corners Vontae Davis and Sean Smith. But can those rooks really set up against Terrell Owens and Randy Moss?

I don't want to get ahead of myself, but, it actually looks like there's a good chance they can. Shove that in your pipe and smoke it, Joyner.

Note: there is no B). I just felt like using A) to emphasize my enthusiasm.

STAYING HEALTHY

"The AFC East was virtually decided in 2008 by the Dolphins' remarkable health ..."

Can I call BS on this entire page yet? Sure, we ranked #1 in the league in games missed (on the positive side) by team starters, but come on. We won the division solely because of our health? It's a good thing I can't speak French, or I'd have to request that you excuse it.

TEAM, GAMES MISSED (BY STARTERS), LEAGUE RANK
1. Dolphins, 46, 1
2. Jets, 77, 9
3. Bills, 101, 15
4. Patriots, 186, 30

Taking an honest look at this list, I'm petrified. Numbers and averages always regress to the mean. Unless the mean was severely shifted in an extremely positive direction due entirely to Miami's grueling preseason training regimen, which, in all sincerity, I highly doubt, we're looking at a season which has great potential to see a lot of our starters missing a lot of games. I don't have to tell you the downside of that, or what it means for us.

SENDING OUT AN SOS

I won't beat the dead horse and display this list, but it's all about how our finishing finish in the division last year will come back to haunt us by giving us the most deadly strength of schedule in the league. Suffice to say, Football Outsiders hates us and our chances in 2009.

And now that you've read this (if you've made it this far), let's just sit back, relax, and watch - on national television - as the Miami Dolphins take their next step toward proving that statistics do not (and will not) define football in every aspect of the game. Let's go, Miami!

20/20 Fantasy Focus: Intro the Fray

Dave.Phuller — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 17:33:39 -0000

Fantasy Football, for many, has become as big a part of the game as any. Some die-hard fans will only follow the NFL in general, or their specific team, because that is where the true game is played. That is where the wins and losses are accumulated, and where the fortunes (or misfortunes) of all 32 NFL teams lie. Some more casual fans, or those who do not have a team they call their own, enjoy fantasy football over the real game because it dictates their own success or failure where there is a general lack of interest in who wins or loses so long as the game maintains its entertainment value. Then, there are combination team-freaks and statistic-freaks who have their favorite team and still enjoy playing a fantasy game based entirely off of numbers. They follow their team to a 'T', yet still prepare for fantasy football months in advance because of how much it pumps them up for football season through the long and monotonous summer days without our favorite sport.

I consider myself the latter: I found myself looking up player names and statistics the day Yahoo!'s Fantasy Football game came out in late May/early June. I cannot wait for my leagues' drafts, and the implications they will have on my chances for a fantasy championship in the '09-'10 fantasy season. Yet, you all know how much I love these Dolphins. They are my only team, always have been, and always will be (regardless of my lack of proximity to the team). It's just my way of building my general knowledge of the game and its players, and my mathematical mind and competitive nature just finds genuine enjoyment with the idea of analyzing numbers better than anyone else in the leagues in which I participate.

So with the permission of The I in the Sky, I would like to produce a weekly fantasy column for the enjoyment of our readers (whether fantasy-minded, reality-minded, or both) or for those who would like to read up on it to better their fantasy game.

finsxfactor, sorry buddy, that title has nothing to do with The Fray. Don't get too excited. It is a mere play on words using "Into the Fray" as the underlying phrase and mixing the abbreviated 'intro' to signify this column's introduction.

The most important aspect of any fantasy football season is the draft, regardless of what anyone says. The second most important aspect is the Waiver or UDFA period following the draft. You can fabricate value where there is none, snag the player who may go on to win you the championship in the last round, or use facades to sway your opponents in alternate directions as you pick the players you believe will bring you to the promised land. Let me jump right into an example from the '08-'09 fantasy baseball season, experienced by yours truly:

My second round pick back in late March was New York Mets center fielder Carlos Beltran. He put up huge numbers for me before succumbing to the disabled list just a week ago. It's important to note that in this league, we draft LF, CF, and RF separately. So, there goes my starting CF. Does my hold on first place go with it?

No. Using the premise of creating or finding value, I drafted Curtis Granderson in the fifth round, though he is only CF eligible. The idea is that, even though I don't have a RF or LF (among other things), Curtis Granderson is not a fifth round talent or in a fifth round situation. He is a player who will put up third or better round results at the end of the season. For some reason he was there when I picked in the fifth round. Though I already had my CF in place, I drafted Granderson knowing that he brought me huge value. It was almost as though I had two fourth round picks, and any fantasy player knows how valuable that is.

It's far more important to learn and practice this premise than one might realize. By drafting Granderson a round or two later than he should have gone, it allowed me to take a chance on Raul Ibanez in the 9th round. His ADP was around 120, so you can see I drafted him at least a round or two earlier than he was expected to go. The round or two I gained by drafting Granderson late made up for the round or two I may have lost if Ibanez didn't perform to my self-defined expectations. In case any of you do not follow baseball, Raul Ibanez was the second ranked player in the Yahoo! game (behind Zack Greinke, who is a completely different story, as I drafted him in the 12th round only for him to go on and become the best player in the Yahoo! game) before also hitting the disabled list.

And with that comes yet another story of value. I drafted Toronto's Adam Lind, LF-eligible, in the 23rd round as insurance and because I believed he presented a major value to my team that late in the draft. Lind is now the 33rd ranked player in the game, and I barely skip a beat when Ibanez goes down.

I cannot tell you how many times I've found values such as these, and how many times they have saved my team from major injury problems. It is truly unbelievable. But this is baseball; why do I bring it up in a fantasy football article? Easy. There are 25 rounds in my fantasy baseball draft, but there are only around 15 in fantasy football. Value becomes far more important when drafting ten less rounds, as injuries can come from nowhere to kill you far quicker in football. You only play through 16 or 17 weeks in fantasy football: if your top selection in the draft gets injured in the first game of the season (read: Tom Brady, drafted by my brother and I last season in a $200 entry league), you are absolutely screwed before the season even gets going. That is, unless you've found value later in the draft to help negate the impact.

Here is recap of the value I was able to find in my 2008 fantasy football drafts:

Main League (0.5 PPR), 14 Teams:

Round 1. LaDainian Tomlinson, 2. Marques Colston, 3. Drew Brees, 4. LenDale White, 5. Matt Forte, 7. Jeremy Shockey, 8.D.J. Hackett, 9. Chester Taylor, 10. Ted Ginn, Jr., 11. Jake Delhomme, 12-15. misc. special teams/speculation picks that did not pan out

Big-Buy-In League (1 PPR), 12 Teams:

Round 1. Tom Brady, 2. Frank Gore, 3. Maurice Jones-Drew, 4. Laveranues Coles, 5. Hines Ward, 6. Joey Galloway, 7. Antonio Gates, 8. Minnesota defense, 9. Shayne Graham, 10. Matt Hasselbeck, 11-14. misc. speculation picks that did not pan out, 15. Steve Slaton

You will notice right away that my draft in the Main League was crap. Why did I take third place in the league at season's end? Value. LaDainian Tomlinson was the first overall pick, but I lost value on that selection. Well, good start. Marques Colston was injured for the majority of the season and didn't contribute much when he was healthy. Drew Brees was the very first major-value pick that saved my season. I got him at pick 29, and I do not need to tell a single one of you what he did for my team last season. He basically carried my team, and though I selected him a bit early compared to Yahoo!'s projections, I believe he ended up as the No. 1 player in that game. That's value no matter how you look at it. LenDale White didn't even start for me unless he absolutely had to due to bye week complications, and I don't think I ended the season with him on my team. There goes my second and fourth round picks. But then comes Matt Forte with the first pick in the fifth round, and with 0.5 points per reception, that turned out to be a huge value: he produced like a late first/early second-rounder. Shockey, Hackett, Taylor, Ginn, Jr., Delhomme. None of them stayed on my team long, and none of them produced much. How could I possibly take third place with a bunch of busted picks? Well, it's easy to understand how crucial it was that I ascertained the value I did from selecting Brees in the third and Forte in the fifth.

Still, let me put it into perspective. LaDainian Tomlinson produced 238.00 fantasy points under our settings. This was a first round pick producing like a second-rounder or so. Steve Slaton, undrafted, scored 235.00 fantasy points. Picking up a UDFA producing like a second rounder is how fantasy champions are made. Eddie Royal, with 204.50 points, was my No. 1 receiver in terms of production. That was the highest total of any receiver on my team. And remember, this is a PPR league so receivers are just meant to produce. In a league this deep with only 15 rounds, value is of utmost importance. Drew Brees, my third round pick, produced the most at 321.50 points, while Forte followed up with 256.50 as a fifth-rounder. After that was LT, then Slaton, Royal, and Breaston, in that order. So, while it may just appear that I have subpar drafting skills in the later rounds, it is simply a testament to how deep the league is and how crucial it is to find value whenever and wherever you can. I mean, besides, if I took third place with this "poor" of a draft (for the most part), that just tells you how difficult it is to find that value and put together a team balanced enough to win each week.

Value, of course, is not tied exclusively to the draft. Two of my first two post-draft moves were to drop the players I took for reasons I still don't understand. In their places, I picked up DeSean Jackson and Steve Slaton. I was high on both of them once I got more of a look at them and read more about them following our somewhat early draft. I ultimately picked up Eddie Royal and dropped DeSean Jackson, because I did not believe both would produce such deadly numbers as rookies and believed Royal to have the better talent and situation. Royal and Slaton, along with Tomlinson, Forte, and Brees, carried me to the playoffs. Another pick-up which occurred following the start of the season was Steve Breaston, but Royal, Breaston, and Slaton alone could not have carried me on their backs without the immense values of LT, Brees, and Forte, all of which performed like first or second rounders week in and week out. However, picking up Slaton and Royal after the fact? That's value.

Oh, and I kept Dwayne Bowe by giving up something like a 6th round pick. Also a load of value, considering the sizeable league in which we played. 14 teams gives you a hell of a lot of problems you wouldn't expect to see in a normal league. Please keep that in mind.

Now, I call this an intro because there are a handful of things to touch on. Value, of course, is just one of them. It is the most important in my mind, which is why I elaborate on it so heavily. Let me highlight a few more factors that contribute to value and finding it in your fantasy drafts.

Know your league settings. The default for the Yahoo! game is well-known, but my main league differs in a few ways: first, we have 0.5 PPR. That makes wide receivers and backs who catch a lot of balls more valuable. It is important to note this, as Brian Westbrook outproduces somebody like Adrian Peterson with relative ease. Yet, AP is still taken second overall. That manager finished last that season, needless to say. The manager who selected Westbrook fifth overall (my dad) ended up fourth, and he's not the greatest fantasy football manager as he lacks knowledge of a wide range of players. It's all. About. Value. We also have 6 points for QB TDs, -2 for picks, a point per 30 yards passing, and -0.5 for sacks. This changes the quarterback dynamic, making them sneaky valuable. This is why drafting an Adrian Peterson, who doesn't catch many balls, second overall is just not smart and shows a complete lack of strategy in this league. You must know your league settings or this will be you, and you just will not score as many points as your opponents week in and week out. AP can only carry you so far if you don't plan around the settings every round thereafter.

Research everything, and be prepared. Look at every rookie in every situation. How is their quarterback? Do they develop chemistry in the preseason? Do they have the situation in which to start right away and put up big numbers (a la Royal and DeSean Jackson)? Do they have a crowded yet injury-prone backfield where a talented rookie could step in and win the job for good (a la Slaton, and this season, potentially Donald Brown)? Are they going into their third season and impressing everybody in OTAs or mini-camps (a la Ted Ginn, Jr.)? These are the things you must look at and evaluate before your drafts.

Constantly scout the waiver wire from the moment your draft ends to the very end of the season. As I mentioned, Eddie Royal and Steve Slaton were preseason pick-ups that I managed to snag in similar fashion to Miami's signing Davone Bess as an UDFA last season. That's pure value on their part, and picking up these fantasy players for little-to-no cost (a roster spot or two as opposed to speculative picks you don't think will pan out). If not for these players, as well as a Steve Breaston here or there, you have no shot at a championship unless you can find value in every single pick you make. As optimistic as the most optimistic fantasy player can be, that never happens and never will happen. Busted picks occur for various reasons, and you must adjust retroactively or proactively.

I hope this helps all of you, and I hope that (pending permission from Matty) I am able to bring you fantasy fans more informative information in the near future. Perhaps this will do well to help us pass the time of these dog days of football-free summer. Also, please feel free to ask any and all questions you may have related to each post. I'll be happy to answer them.

Author's Note: I do not consider myself a fantasy expert, but I do believe I possess enough knowledge and intelligence to produce a column that will assist the reader in some way. I have found quite a bit of success in fantasy sports, specifically baseball, but my football game has improved on a yearly basis and it is never simple to find success in any fantasy game. Please consider this and take the information provided as you please.

Predicting the Wins: Miami Dolphins

Dave.Phuller — Fri, 15 May 2009 19:47:31 -0000

Predicting how many wins your favorite NFL team will accumulate in their respective upcoming season has been a pastime for die hard fans of the sport for as long as I can remember. There is never an exact science to it, however.

However, before I go any further, this article isn't great. It's not something that should be taken as dogma. I'm not claiming to know any more than the rest of you, and any statistical derivations I produce are merely done as a light-hearted attempt to keep you all sane through this long and deathly boring offseason. Please do not bash my extremely crude use of statistics without taking that into account. I'm just having fun in a time where it's very difficult to do so for us Miami Dolphins fans.

As we all know, there are various factors that go into such predictions, and the slightest change in any of these factors can throw any prediction completely off. An injury to a team's minor or major player(s) can take games away from a team's potential record, whether the injury is short-lived or season-long. Any number of players can regress, or step up, and change the team's dynamic. The introduction of a new style of offense, or a new package (read: The WildCat) can completely turn a team's attack upside-down and give Defensive Coordinators nightmares, adding wins that were unexpected.

Needless to say, there are far too many angles to look at or factors to weigh in this process. ESPN's John Clayton highlights a few of his most basic, yet seemingly accurate "predictors" of success (or the opposite) in this well-written, very intriguing article. He notes that the Seattle Seahawks will bet he most "surprising" team based on his parameters, with the Chicago Bears (surprise, surprise) the runners-up and Cincinnati Bengals right behind in 3rd. Rounding out his top eight are the Green Bay Packers (4), Houston Texans (5), Washington Redskins (6), Buffalo Bills (7), and Cleveland Browns (8).

Interesting to note that the Bills are seventh in this list. Could it be the addition of Terrell Owens? Well, according to Clayton, that's a part of it:

7. Buffalo Bills: This one might be a surprise because I'm going against the formula. The Bills' .570 schedule is the sixth-hardest in the league. Whether they've played hard schedules or easy schedules, the Bills have finished 7-9 for three straight seasons. Their break is "non-common" non-division games against the Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs, which are winnable. Plus, Terrell Owens should add scoring punch to their offense. He usually takes an offense to an average of 24.0 ppg or better because of his ability to catch touchdown passes. The Bills averaged 21.0 ppg last year. A two-point improvement could put them at 9-7.

Feasible. Likely? Perhaps. Terrell Owens on his own, to me, could very easily add those two extra games to their seemingly perennial 7-9 record. His being double-teamed alone (if defenses decide to) leaves Lee Evans one-on-one with a corner or safety, both of which he has the speed to beat. James Hardy is developing into a decent red zone option with his height, hands, and physicality, and there are a few semi-reliable options Buffalo has to pass to, rounding out what should be a very effective passing game. Throw in Marshawn Lynch (suspension or not) and an underrated back in Fred Jackson, and you have an offense that developing QB Trent Edwards should lead very well. I don't consider 9-7 out of the question at all, and that point about the non-common Cleveland and Kansas City games is a good one.

While this makes for a good read and perhaps even better debate, the Buffalo Bills are not the focus of this article. Our Miami Dolphins are.

Clayton himself does not actually predict how many wins he believes Miami will accumulate in the '09-'10 season, but using his relatively simple "formula", we can. My plan is to take their '08-'09 results and add or subtract wins according to the rules of each parameter. In true Phinsider fashion, we can follow this up with riveting debate and provide our own educated guesses (hopefully backed up with good reasoning rather than simple biased fandom).

First, let's outline the parameters that we are working with per Clayton's ESPN article:

If a schedule is .020 easier than the previous year, it gives a team a chance to add a win. If the schedule is .020 harder, it usually translates to a loss. The Panthers were coming off a 7-9 season in 2007 after playing a tough .523 schedule. Their projected strength of schedule for the 2008 season was .465, .058 easier. That pointed to a 2.9-game improvement, or about three more victories. In 2008, the Panthers exceeded even that projection: They were five games better than in 2007, finishing at 12-4.

What does this tell us? Well, using simple math, our 11-5 record from last season will turn into:

.594 - .465 = .129 / .020 = 6.45

We will round this down to 6 games; not because of any bias, but because we all learned in grade school that you round down any integer if the tenth spot is below a "5". Using that logic, our record dips from 11-5 to 5-11 following this first parameter. Don't worry, there are technically two more.

Offense means everything in projecting surprise teams. Usually a one-point increase in scoring can add a win for a team. That's one of the reasons you look for a team to be a surprise if it has a good quarterback who's coming back from a season in which he missed a bunch of games because of injuries. If a team hits on the right quarterback in free agency or the draft, that also works in projecting surprise teams. The Falcons hit on Matt Ryan last season. Their offense improved from 16.2 to 24.2 ppg. Their record went from 4-12 to 11-5, a seven-game improvement.

This is extremely difficult to project, however we do have some new angles to view this from. With a mere 21.6 points per game last season (21st in the NFL), Miami has a lot of room for improvement. Just how much? Well, this is really a very rough estimation, but let's look at it this way:

Miami amassed the 12th most yards in the league last season, right between San Diego (11th) and Dallas (13th). San Diego put up 27.4 points on the season, second in the league, while Dallas put up 22.6 points, 18th in the league. For the sake of argument, let's take the Chargers' points total and the Cowboys' and average the two to give us a relative range in which to figure our Dolphins could score:

27.4 + 22.6 = 50.0 / 2 = 25.0

So, let's ask if 25.0 points per game for this Miami offense is a feasible estimation. I personally view it as a rather high average, though an attainable one if Pat White works out as the WC QB and Chad Pennington has another strong season (or, if Henne comes in and comes on strong and a player like Ginn improves significantly because of it). Also, we may have a top five offensive line in the league; this should help generate scores out of the yards we accumulate.

It surprised me to see that we had posted the 21st ranked point total in the league considering how well we did in the yardage department. It would not, however, surprise me if we showed some consistency and put up the 12th highest yardage total once again this season. Give or take a few positions, of course. We have the quarterback to do it, and the offensive line to produce even more rushing yards even if CP10 regresses in the passing department. Or, if either Henne or White takes over as the signal caller.

What's different this season? We actually have the talent now to convert some of those yards into scores (or field goals into touchdowns). And, obviously it would be insane to assume we produce the same turnover differential, but our offense has stayed consistent enough and our coaching staff has preached discipline well enough to allow us to think we could come somewhat close.

Now, like I said a bit earlier, this projection is extremely rough. I believe the jump from 21.6 to 25.0 is a bit much, especially considering the team's propensity to pound-the-rock and the fact that we have the defense and starting QB (at the moment, at least) to play ball-control. So, making this projection even rougher, I've decided to average last year's PPG total with this article's previous 25.0 projected PPG:

21.6 + 25.0 = 46.6 / 2 = 23.3

Now, is 23.3 points per contest feasible for this offense? I think so, but that's my opinion. Considering our improved talent on both sides of the ball, and the potential for us to improve our WC play while hopefully adding a touchdown or two to last year's total based off kick or punt returns alone (we really lacked in that department last season), this total is one I feel comfortable sticking with. And now:

23.3 - 21.6 = 1.7

We will round this number, 1.7, up to 2 wins. Thank you, grade school teachers. Our record improves from an unfavorable 5-11 to a slightly better (yet still sub-par) 7-9. Of course, there is still room for improvement. Nobody knows how well our offense will do until it all happens, and it's still possible (if not likely) that we could, in fact, put up 25.0 or so points per game. I'm just not going to be overly-optimistic enough to actually predict such a generous average. This keeps my expectations slightly lower while giving us feasible room to improve.

Now I'm sure many of you would like to view that third and final (according to Clayton) parameter so we can hopefully add at least another win or two onto our projected total. So, here it is:

A new category in my database involves a team's out-of-division schedule. A year ago, I had the idea that most of the teams in the AFC East would improve because they played the AFC West and the NFC East. I thought most of the AFC East teams could end up 7-3 or better in non-division games. Only the New York Jets ruined that prediction with road losses in San Francisco and Oakland.

In 2009, the circuits to look at this season with decent chances to sport multiple teams with at least 7-3 records in non-division games are the NFC North and the AFC North. It's hard to project the Detroit Lions to have that type of success, but there is a chance that five or six of the teams in those two divisions combined could go 7-3 or better in non-division games.

What we can take from this is a bit more complex. It's entirely possible that we again go 4-2 against the AFC East. As the Jets and Patriots showed us last season, losing to "common" teams that should have been easy victories, it's just about impossible to predict how we'll fare against "common" opponents this season.

Because of this, I cannot put any additional wins onto our record based upon any formula or general "rule". At the same time, I cannot succumb to extreme biased fandom. I must stay cautiously optimistic, with an emphasis on the caution.

This obviously isn't how Vegas set the over/under at seven wins, but hell, I am not in the position to argue with their odds makers.

Look at it this way: we were 1-15 two seasons ago. If we can end this season 8-8, at worst, considering our schedule and the talent and competition that exists within our division, I'd say we were successful as hell. Yes, we were a little spoiled with last season's 11-5 finish, but we all know full well we aren't a perennial 11-5 team quite yet. Nor can we consider ourselves such with the obvious changing of the guard (or should I say quarterback) coming in a mere season, if not less. Does it make sense for us to stick with a quarterback that we know will not likely take us to the promised land if we are truly talented enough to go 11-5 (or better, perhaps slightly worse) with the most difficult schedule in the league? It might just be me, but no, it doesn't. Last season was an anomaly, one that gave us hope and brought excitement back. But let's not subject ourselves to expectations that should cause great injury to our Dolphins pride if they are not reached. I for one am aiming for 8-8 to be a successful season: if they surpass my expectations, I am truly grateful. Pennington had another great season, and we have a shot at the playoffs. If they do not, all that means is that we steal a draft pick and become poised to compete a season from now. It also means we likely get to see how Henne performs in somewhat-meaningful games.

Let me put it another way, one which will surely evoke argument (if not against me, then with each other): don't we almost want Miami to miss out on the playoffs so that we can begin to solve the long-term quarterback issue? If we hand the keys over to Henne with a few games left in the season, perhaps more than that, isn't that a positive? I know we're all searching for that quarterback to "succeed" Marino and bring us the Championship as soon as possible, but the mere fact that Sparano has already announced the quarterback switch tells us what we already know: Pennington won't be the guy to do it. Don't we, then, want to gauge the ability of our back-up and heir-apparent?

In all honesty, we might be worse off if we are more successful. We lose out on draft position, and Henne surely gets less experience.

Why did I even bring up Clayton's guidelines for predicting success in unexpected places, then? Well, I did so as to prove a point: statistics can only go so far in predicting success, but at the same time, they do provide a valuable structure in which to work with.

So, even though my ending estimation wasn't derived in a very clean way, it's one I'm fairly confident in: this team will win eight games in the 2009-10 season. If you want to know why I added one win onto the seven we "derived" earlier, it's because this team has something that deserves an additional one win, at the very least: a chip on its shoulder.

8-8. .500. Bash away.

Patrick Turner: The Great Gadsden

Dave.Phuller — Tue, 05 May 2009 23:25:25 -0000

A good, solid debate is one of the most prevalent, commonplace, and enjoyable pastimes of bloggers and sports fans alike, especially in today's increasingly e-World. So, it comes as no surprise that there are "experts" and "amateurs" across the internet and in the media who reside on both sides of the spectrum. There seems to be no median; either you believe that Patrick Turner is was a "reach", a bad "value pick" in the third round, or you're in the camp that believes Turner was a good value where he was selected and that he has a legitimate shot to be a relevant and productive receiver. Of course there are extremes that extend past these ends, such as the camps who feel as though he will be a complete bust (such as those who argue he is Mike Williams v.2.0), and those who feel he'll be a very successful player (Orande Gadsden v.2.0 is the classic comparison).

After reading up on the opinions of this fine site's educated bloggers, I decided to make my own judgment and express it with you all. I came into this site mere months ago, knowing nothing compared to what I can honestly say that I know now. Football was nothing but statistics, a fantasy sport I followed and one I loved to watch. Not because I was ignorant, but because I just didn't know enough about the game and the way it works. I had no idea what the difference between the 3-4 and the 4-3 was. Seriously. I had no idea what the strong side was or what it was expected to do; this site has changed that for me.

So while I may not be doing anything but taking up space and subjecting you all to meaningless palaver that may or may not mean anything in the end, it's a way for me to take what I've learned from all of you and convert it into what I hope will be an enjoyable read that sparks even more enjoyable debate.

With the 87th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select...

Patrick Turner, Wide Receiver, University of Southern California

It's quite simple, and quite natural really, to compare Mike Williams and Patrick Turner. At least, on the surface. Their size, speed, athletic ability, route-running, hands, pedigree, and coaching background are all quite similar. Perhaps, even nearly the same. So are these players even similar enough to compare? Well, on the surface..

Charles Robinson of Yahoo! Sports had this to say about former USC wideout Mike Williams, selected tenth overall in the 2005 NFL Draft:

Stepping out in front of 56 scouts, coaches and executives, Williams showcased a combination of size and athleticism that should make him this draft's can't-miss prospect. Standing just an eyelash under 6-foot-5 and weighing in at 229 pounds, Williams ran his 40-yard dashes in the mid-4.5-second range.

...

"He can't get much higher [on draft boards]. There can't be but one, two, three kids ahead of him," the source said of Williams' draft prospects, which have been steadily rising since he ran and went through interviews at the scouting combine last month in Indianapolis. "There might even be some maneuvering around to get at him."

Not only was Mike Williams perhaps the biggest bust of that draft, but nine kids were actually ahead of him and not a single team moved up to select him. Norm Chow had the sixth overall pick while with Tennessee that season, and even Chow passed on Williams. Was it need-based? Was it inside knowledge? We may never know, but it's telling.

But I'll cut the Williams comparisons here, for now, because "on the surface" is the only place for the comparison of these two ex-USC receivers.

I read an interesting article by 560 WQAM Sports Radio's Jim Mandich via a Sun Sentinel article saying something like this:

If the Dolphins didn't select Pat White when they did, how long would he have lasted? I think he would have been gone when Miami selected next. They did not want to have any regrets if they waited too long.

Why am I mentioning Pat White in an article about Patrick Turner? Well, I'm not, per se. I'm mentioning the interesting thought by Jim on whether or not the player would have lasted, and the fact that a talent evaluator such as Bill Parcells selects his players when he does in order to feel no regrets if he misses out. This is why Turner was selected in the third round. Does this make him a reach? Does this make him a bad value pick? Only if you ask Mel Kiper, Jr. or Todd McShay. But in reality, who is asking them voluntarily? No, this pick does nothing more than make Turner a player that the trio of Parcells, Ireland, and Sparano wanted when they were ready to make their selection.

Here's what the self-proclaimed expert known affectionately as "The Dinosaur" had to say about Miami's selection of Turner:

"I didn’t think he’d get drafted. Several receivers who I had graded higher did not get drafted. He’s a big guy, comes from a great program, he was expected to be the next great Southern Cal receiver. But he turned out to be just average in a lot of categories."

This is the same "expert" who had Mike Williams at the top of his draft board prior to the 2005 NFL Draft.

I do not have a direct quote, but I believe many of you who follow Mike Mayock or saw the entirety of the draft recall that Mayock likes what Miami did with this draft. That includes their selection of Patrick Turner.

Now, many of you can find this information out on your own. It's just research and organization. I am a member of the camp who likes the Turner pick after having thought long and hard about it. And to quote the great Peter Griffin of Quahog:

"Ehehehehehehehehehehehe.. Long."

There you have it.

But seriously, let's get down to the stats and analysis, shall we?

First off, why am I comparing Patrick Turner with Mike Williams anyway? Well, Williams was a 6'5", 225 lb. receiver with a 38" vertical jump coming out of the University of Southern California as a senior. He was scouted for his incredible size and athleticism, running a 4.57-40 (with his size, that's incredible) and being that he was "not afraid to go across the middle". He plays extremely physical, as he was able to create separation at the college level and dominated secondaries in the red zone. He set a USC record, taking 16 balls to the house for scores. Not to mention, he set another record by scoring 30 touchdowns over the span of two seasons. So why did he fail so miserably at the NFL level?

To put it succinctly, Fanhouse's Michael David Smith had this to say:

The Detroit Lions made Williams the 10th overall pick in the 2005 NFL draft, and he's been a huge disappointment. He showed up overweight and out of shape, never demonstrated the slightest bit of commitment to his sport, and was eventually traded to the Raiders for a fourth-round draft pick.

Commitment. It has been said time and time again by players, coaches, former coaches, and everyone in the business who knows a thing or two about football. Particularly Steve Young at this year's draft. If you don't love football, if you are not committed to football, you will not play up to the level at which you are capable. Period.

We all know about Turner's measurables: 6'5", 221 lbs., a 4.58-40, an arm span of 33 1/4" and a hand span of 9 5/8" at the 2009 NFL Combine. Isn't it the classic model of proving that an NCAA talent will at least be relevant in the NFL (or something along those lines)? To note steady improvement from year to year during his collegiate play? Courtesy ESPN.com:

Stats Overview	Receiving					Rushing					Fumbles
YEAR	REC	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	FUM	LST
2005	12	170	14.2	31	2	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0
2006	29	272	9.4	29	2	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0
2007	48	569	11.9	31	3	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0
2008	49	741	15.1	42	10	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0

His NCAA career best receptions, yards, long, and touchdowns came in his senior season after he was given a more ideal (read: less poor) situation in which to thrive, as well as the experience to allow him to develop his raw talents.

NFLDraftScout.com had this to say about Turner's draft stock:

High profile disappointments Mike Williams and Dwayne Jarrett might have tainted scouts' perceptions of tall USC receivers, but a breakout 2008 campaign and subsequent impressive Senior Bowl has scouts rethinking their stance on Turner.

We also know Turner's story: comes into the NCAA ranks as the #1 rated wide receiver (Rivals.com), gets stuck behind Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith one year and an incredible run game featuring Reggie Bush and LenDale White in another year. In his third season, Fred Davis got the best of him with 881 yards/8 TD, while the running game (even without Bush or White) puts up 197.2 yards per game (allowing a mere 84.2 to opponents). A winning coach like Pete Carroll does not risk injury, or mistakes, on offense if his defense can dominate like that. Not to mention, his situation didn't allow for a whole lot of production: Fred Davis was a tight end, so obviously Turner was the school's top receiver. Vidal Hazelton was the next best. Do you let Turner beat you with his size, or do you double-team a still-raw receiver who would likely not be able to work between two defenders and deal instead with Hazelton? You can see why he did not produce a great deal in his Junior season. Senior season came, but so did the arrival of the talented Damian Williams. Turner still put up an NCAA career-high 741 yards on 49 catches with 10 scores playing alongside the future pro. Oh, and USC's defense was just as good last season, allowing 87.4 yards on the ground. I mean, take a glance at where their defensive players were drafted. That says it all.

I know what you're thinking: 49 receptions with under 800 yards for ten scores isn't extremely impressive, especially with future star quarterback Mark Sanchez throwing to him. Yeah, well:

Pete Carroll knows defense; he knows that defense wins championships, and he knows that Pete Carroll wins championships with defense. So, you're going to disregard the NFL ability of a player with the rare blend of size and athleticism because of a relative lack of production? You can cite Mike Williams all day long, but Patrick Turner has one thing that Williams has never and will never have:

Commitment.

What player drafted in the third round compares himself to Marques Colston and Keyshawn Johnson? Both are very high targets to aspire to. Targets that clearly require commitment. Sure, comparing yourself to a former great and a current top receiver means nothing and says nothing about commitment. But commitment has never been a question with him. He may not have tapped into his full potential, but that's less of a matter of commitment than it was with scheme and situation.

Either way, Colston and Johnson are nice names to compare yourself with. The name I'm looking for is Gadsden. Orande Gadsden.

Look. As Dolphins fans, we fondly remember the Gadsden years. What did OG do for us year after year? Catch the ball and move the chains. Isn't that what this regime wants? Isn't that what all of us want? Many of us (including myself, at first) were clamoring for a trade to bring the Pahokee-native Anquan Boldin home, though we knew it would be at a high cost. Why? To be that third-down threat, and to move the chains. Boldin runs the same 40-speed as Turner, runs solid routes, has solid hands..well, who am I kidding, we all know how great Boldin is. But the truth is, this regime knows that all we're lacking is that threat to move the chains every time the ball comes his way because you know he's going to catch whatever you throw his way.

Want a quick whiff of Turner's scouting report? Here it is:

Good athlete...Great size and bulk with a huge frame...Runs excellent routes...Very strong, physical and aggressive...Terrific ball skills and body control...Good hands...Plays a little faster than he times...Runs with some power...Can beat the jam...Tough and will work the middle.

I emboldened the key attributes that Turner possesses before asking one simple question: how, considering the obvious similarities to former great Gadsden, is this not an excellent pick in the third round? Forget value, forget Kiper, forget everything the draft and media turn this pick into. We got the exact skills and attributes that this team was sorely lacking in the wide receiver position with a third rounder. Gads..oops, I mean Turner doesn't even have to do anything other than post 800 yards and 8-10 touchdowns per season with Ginn as our deep threat and Bess or Hartline or Camarillo in the slot. That kind of production, coupled with the first downs he should be able to regularly produce, is precisely what we need to round out our receiving corps for a Super Bowl run.

Speaking of Keyshawn Johnson, a certain ex-coach of ours used to, um..coach, the maligned yet talented diva. If Turner is drawing comparisons based on size, athleticism, attributes, style of play, etc., then need I say more?

If nothing else, I leave you with one thing:

The Fonz be with you.