SB Nation User Blog: Dave

Let's Talk Hedo

Dave — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 08:04:58 -0000

Nyah-nyah! Fooled you all! (AP Photo/John Raoux, File)

I've been following the Hedo Turkoglu story with rapt interest all day, as I'm sure you have. Kudos to Ben Golliver for keeping on top of it. He is indeed the man in the trenches and his work has been amazing.

The story, of course, has been twisting and turning like a belly dancer on an anthill. Friday morning it looked like Hedo was a Blazer. Friday afternoon it looked up in the air. Friday evening it became apparent that though they had donned the white sport coat and pink carnation, the Blazers had nobody to take to the dance. Obviously that's a letdown, at least for tonight. Here are some thoughts to put things in perspective.

This isn't the first time a team has been used to establish an asking price for another team. We talk about players as family. In some ways they are. But this is also a business. What happened with Turkoglu is within the rules. It could be that he never had serious intentions of signing with the Blazers and this was a cold move. More likely he found it advisable to seriously consider his options and get definite salary quotes from all interested parties even if he was leaning towards one team over another. If it were me, I'd come into Portland thinking that they'd absolutely have to knock my socks off with the atmosphere, plans, and salary in order to get me to change my mind. But I'd still meet with them to see if they could do that. It's called being smart and doing your due diligence. There's no reason to hate Turkoglu for that.

One of the broader lessons to be learned here is to never lose sight of the game. You have to be a little ruthless to operate in this league. Sometimes you have to make difficult decisions about players or contracts the same way Turkoglu made his decision about his future team. Kevin Pritchard has already had to take on that role. (Anyone remember that post saying goodbye to Channing Frye?) He'll have to again in the future. Nobody should complain about that. Loyalty exists, but it's bound to contracts and performance. Don't forget that.

It goes without saying that another lesson is to not count chickens before they're hatched. The massive swing in the story today rivals any in Blazers history. Once upon a time Portland called a press conference to welcome Trenton Hassell to town only to have the Timberwolves match the offer and pull him back. Today it looked like Turkoglu was a Blazer and now he's not. Part of that may have been the team's doing. Part of it was surely the media. We move quickly nowadays. I've never liked quick as much as I like right. Obviously we all need to be careful about jumping at the first thing we hear. Personally I'm not going to be comfortable with the idea that Hedo is a Raptor until I see a signed contract. The only thing that would make this story more perfect (and interesting) would be another reversal of fortune wherein Toronto ended up not signing him and him having to come back for a lesser offer. That would be part of the game as well, eh?

Here's another quasi-philosophical point: Things like this usually work out like they're supposed to. It sounds trite, but it's often true. Think back now. Does anybody really miss Trenton Hassell?

I'm going to be honest with you about a few things:

--Turkoglu always seemed more like a Raptor to me than a Blazer. He fits that team's profile. We also knew from the beginning that Toronto's offer would be bigger and he was in a position where the bigger deal was going to weigh heavier. I was honestly somewhat surprised when the news broke this morning that he was coming to Portland.

--Part of me was also disappointed when the news broke this morning. Granted, I was prepared to warm up to the idea. I could see the offensive contributions Hedo can make. I could see having another all-around stat guy next to Brandon Roy being an awe-inspiring sight. I was more than willing to make the best of it and get excited about it. But I was also prepared to do something I haven't had to do very often since I started this gig: posit publicly that the Blazers might have made a mistake. I tend to camp out on the John Hollinger side of the issue, that Hedo looked good because he was in a system that fit him (and covered for him) and even his "good" wasn't that spectacular. I was worried that he'd need a bigger role, particularly handling the ball, than his relative talent on the team would warrant. Most of all I was worried that we were buying high on a guy whose value wouldn't be great unless he came through in spades. There was reward to this move, yes, but there was also risk. The downside of that risk at least equaled the upside of the reward. The Blazers might need to make a bold move, but I wonder if this was the one.

--The worst part of the deal by far was the five-year, $50 million contract. Not only is that a lot of money, it's just too long. The Blazers don't need a starting small forward for five years. They need a guy who will start for them for two years, three tops (with a tradeable expiring contract in that last year, obviously). If Nicolas Batum or Martell Webster panned out then Turkoglu would have been a millstone around our necks long before the final year of his contract. By the fourth year he wouldn't have been worth a plug nickel in trade. He wouldn't have been happy coming off the bench. I'm not sure he would have been a capable starter at that age either. Portland dodged a bullet here and I'm pretty convinced that the Raptors are going to find that out. Continuing our "ditched at the dance" theme, we're all sad tonight but three years down the road when we've found our beloved (possibly standing quietly behind us all the while) and the Raptors are waltzing with a girl who's aged poorly and is causing them headaches, we'll probably be relieved.

By the way, though the story told is going to be Hedo jilting Portland I think it's entirely possible that some of these misgivings showed through on the Blazers' part today as well. There may have been second thoughts about this deal, some not likely to be made public. The Blazers had to make a pitch-perfect presentation to convince Turkoglu to take $5-6 million less and live in a less optimal city (by his way of thinking anyway). Turkoglu had to show commitment and drive to justify the biggest, longest contract of his career, a contract that would certainly burden the Blazers down the road. The most likely explanation in all of this is that neither of those things happened.

Sadly, that doesn't change the fact that the Blazers are still without a confirmed acquisition, which was probably not their "A" plan. You can characterize today as understandable. You may characterize it as ultimately for the best. You can't characterize it as positive. There have been teams in this position before who have made expensive stabs at the wrong players to compensate. There have also been teams who couldn't use their cap flexibility at all. Either result would be a serious blow to Portland's growth curve. The Blazers optimal plan definitely involves adding quality help right now. They've been building towards this moment for the last couple of years. They now have to tread the fine line between being patient, waiting for the right move, and just letting the opportunity slip by.

In one scenario the Blazers have time. The cap space doesn't go anywhere on its own. They have flexibility in trade matters right up until the Feburary deadline. In another scenario they're going to have to scramble now. This one would be invoked if they had a domino-like plan that started with signing a free agent, continued through making a trade, and finished with extending the contracts of Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge...which is a very likely scenario. It's quite possible that those steps have to happen in order: the free agent signing to make full use of the cap space, the trade then being conducted under the 125%+$100,000 over-the-cap rule, and the contract extensions putting us irrevocably beyond the cap limit. If the Blazers wanted to take back 25% more salary than they sent out in trade, for instance, consummating that deal before signing a free agent would lose them a significant amount of their remaining signing space. If this is the case, the trade won't wait forever. Also locking up Roy and Aldridge is a big deal...certainly the most important step in the team's future of the three listed. You don't want that issue to linger. One assumes that the Blazer brain trust has a Plan B at the ready. If not they're probably burning the midnight oil as we speak.

I would not have been entirely displeased to see Hedo Turkoglu as a Blazer. I am not displeased to see that he is not. I am mindful, though, that we have veered off of the highway and onto the shoulder here. I am hoping that the hand at the wheel is steady and confident in bringing us back...that we'll neither drive up an embankment nor overcorrect and swerve across traffic trying to get back.

It's going to be an interesting summer. This may be the biggest challenge of Kevin Pritchard's career.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Houston's Blog Offers a Deal

Dave — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 07:13:19 -0000

I've been talking with the folks over at The Dream Shake since this morning. They're on to an idea that before recent events seemed near-unthinkable. They're pondering shopping Shane Battier. Here's what's changed (my interpretation, not theirs):

1. Yao Ming is out indefinitely. Tracy McGrady is eternally questionable and maybe on his way out of town. That's a ton of scoring power out the window...the two main pillars of the franchise entering the year. Battier is an amazing complementary player, perfect alongside those guys. If they're gone Houston needs more firepower. All of a sudden Battier looks like a nice piece who doesn't fit anymore, kind of like your beautiful sandcastle after the tide has come in. It's under that flood somewhere but you're not getting much use out of it anymore.

2. Just today, as reported below, Ron Artest committed to the L*kers while Trevor Ariza reportedly agreed to join the Rockets. On the surface this appears to make Battier more valuable to Houston, as the guy he formed a battery with is gone. But Ariza is, in many ways, a younger, cheaper Battier. They could use a contrast there.

I would also argue that Battier is a better fit in Portland than anyone we've considered so far, including Hedo Turkoglu. His defense, distance shooting, smarts, dependability, and seamless blending would be huge assets. He's also relatively inexpensive at $6.9 million in the coming season and $7.4 million the season after. He's not going to help the offense the same way Turkoglu would which would mean the Blazers would probably have to upgrade offensively at point guard. But with Battier in the fold you might not be afraid to take on an offensive-minded point. The backcourt would be weak defensively but Batiier, Aldridge, and Przybilla/Oden (provided neither went in the deal) would be plenty intimidating at the big positions. I wouldn't scream at all about Andre Miller being added to this mix, for instance, nor Ramon Sessions (if he's leaving Milwaukee).

Dreamshake's initial offer which you can read here is Battier for Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw. You can see where that makes a certain amount of sense for them. They get younger. They get scoring. You can also see how highly they value Battier. Unfortunately Portland fans value Rudy just as highly. Given that and the comparative ages of the players involved that's probably a no-go from our end.

However they are in the market for counter-offers. That's where you come in. What would you offer them at this point for Battier? And would you rather have him than Hedo?

A couple of suggestions:

1. One comment over there suggested Rudy and Oden for Battier. If that rubs you the wrong way (and it does me) don't do that in return. Remember that until events changed Battier was all but untouchable. He has value to them.

2. Don't forget that they'd put high value on a center right now. If you're willing to part with Przybilla he could be attractive.

3. Remember Battier's salary is only $6.9 million. You can cushion the trade with cap space from our end but they don't have any. They can only take on so much salary.

In slight contravention of Point #3 I'm going to offer my own possible scenario. If the Rockets were willing to send back Brent Barry's $1.9 million salary in the deal (likely with the understanding that he'd be cut) they're starting to flirt with the possible salary range of one Hedo Turkoglu. At this point I believe Hedo would do the Rockets more good than Battier. That would be among my possible offers. The hitch is that CBA rules would prevent the trade from being consummated until December 15th, which is after the season starts. That would probably kill it for now but it could be an issue re-visited during or after the upcoming season.

Lend us whatever wisdom you have.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Trevor Ariza the Consolation Prize?

Dave — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:23:20 -0000

As Blazer Ninja pointed out in a Fanshot, RealGM has reposted a YahooSports Twitter saying that league executives feel that either Toronto or Portland, whichever team loses out on Hedo Turkoglu, will offer a $32-$40 million contract to L*kers reserve Trevor Ariza.

Now obviously this information is now fourth-hand...from Blazer Ninja through RealGM through Twitter through unnamed executives. Take it as such. Although I'd stake my life on Blazer Ninja's credibility I wouldn't be surprised to see the hand of Ariza's agent in there somewhere. But if there's a grain of truth to it...sheesh!

Look...I love Trevor Ariza. I think he'd be the kind of player who could add to Portland's mix without disrupting much or demanding the ball. He's young, athletic, and defensive-minded. He'd be a really solid pick-up. But $32-$40 million?!? That better be a 16-year contract.

I mean, the guy made $3.1 million last year. Even with his contributions he's probably going to end up a reserve. For that kind of scratch you better end up with a starter, if not a productive one. You're going to end up tacking on a luxury tax premium on that kind of deal. I don't think you pay 2-for-1 for Trevor Ariza no matter how much you like him. One of his main drawing cards is that he's a role player who produces more than he costs. You love him precisely because he's a value guy. If he's pulling down $8-10 million per year how much do you have to pay Outlaw or Webster, let alone Bayless and Rudy eventually?

And speaking of Rudy...you thought he was frustrated with the Blazers maybe picking up Turkoglu? Wait until the bump on the back of his head starts throbbing.

I'm all for Ariza, or a guy like Ariza, but not at that price. One thing I assume the Blazers know is that you can really get burned overpaying for players off of successful teams that those successful teams also deemed not feasible to keep.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Answering a Simple Question

Dave — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:55:11 -0000

The Hedo Turkoglu thing has such momentum right now that I'm not even going to try to fight it. We said what we had to say on the subject a couple days ago. I'll let the sidebar posts and the approximately one billion media references speak for themselves. Enjoy the whirlwind!

However I did want to get in a couple simple posts. The Rasheed Wallace one is right below this. This one covers a question that's been asked multiple times over the last couple of weeks: Is it possible for the Blazers to trade or release players (say Steve Blake, for instance), have them cut from the team they're traded to, and then pick them up again? Is it possible to re-sign Channing Frye now that he's released?

The answer to either question is "probably not". The basis of that answer is the assumption that the Blazers will make moves while under the salary cap this summer. Most trades featuring Blake are assumed to transpire under the cap or at least in conjuction (or in the wake of) moves that transpire under the cap...signing Turkoglu for instance. In like fashion Channing Frye was released specifically so the Blazers could get under the cap.

Here's the deal, though. The Blazers aren't actually under the cap until they make a couple extra moves. Technically speaking Portland's potential free agents are still registered as cap holds. The hold of Raef LaFrentz alone is over $19 million. Portland will have to renounce the rights to LaFrentz, Michael Ruffin, and Shavlik Randolph in order to make full use of their potential cap space. But even then the Blazers aren't out of the woods. Portland still has exceptions--the mid-level exception at around $5 million, the bi-annual veteran's exception around $1.2 million, and a trade exception around $3 million (plus another possible small trade exception from the Sergio-to-Sacramento deal)--which all count as cap holds as well. [Edit: We now have that small trade exception in the Sergio deal confirmed by a team source.] That's close to $10 million in cap holds, which puts the Blazers over the cap. In order to make a trade as a team beneath the cap threshold or to sign free agents using cap space Portland will also have to renounce those exceptions for the year.

In other words, if you trade Blake for Hinrich using Portland's extra cap space to make the deal work you first have to renounce those exceptions. If you want $8 million to offer Hedo Turkoglu you first have to renounce those exceptions. And no, you do not get those exceptions back after you've signed Hedo and are now at the cap limit. You have renounce them for the entire season before you can use your cap space to sign Turkoglu.

In this light it becomes obvious why you can't trade or release a player and then get him back. You trade Blake for Hinrich and use your available cap space to make that deal. With Hinrich coming in you are now at the cap limit. What money can you give to Blake? You have no mid-level exception this year, nor the bi-annual. You have no way to offer him a contract.

Similarly you renounced Channing Frye to get cap space. The only way you could sign him again would be to use that same cap space to get him back. As with Blake, once you've used the cap space Channing's departure created you don't have any room to sign him again.

The only way this scenario would work would be if the Blazers never went under the cap. They'd then be able to make use of their exceptions just like any over-the-cap team. They'd have to trade Blake to Chicago in the usual over-the-cap fashion (matching salaries within 125%+$100,000), wait for the Bulls to release him, and then use one of their cap exceptions to re-sign him. But in this case there are no free-agent signings beyond what you can get with those exceptions. (Hint: That ain't Turkoglu.) There are no moves requiring extra cap space to facilitate. You never get any cap space to work with. It's highly unlikely that the Blazers will choose to do business this way.

For all intents and purposes when one of the current Blazers is traded or released he's gone...at least until 2010-11 when Portland's cap exceptions will reset.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

An Old Friend

Dave — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:42:52 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

I'm not done yet! (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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The news that the Detroit Pistons have agreed in principle to deals with Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva (and by the way, I think I'd go and cry into my pillowcase if the Blazers made that combo signing) brings up an interesting question: where is the next destination for our old friend Rasheed Wallace?

The Boston Herald is reporting that the Celtics have more than a passing interest in 'Sheed, as do a couple other teams. Where do you think he would fit in best at this point in his career?

It's been on my mind for a while to have a last retrospective on Rasheed and what he meant to this team. It was hard when he first left because there was (justifiably) quite a bit of bitterness over the last year of his tenure here. After a few years the Blazers were so bad that the performance, combined with memories of better years, tainted the subject. Now an entire era has passed since Wallace wore the red and black. The Blazers are looking forward to sunny days now and in the future so there's no reason for sour grapes. So talk to me a little about Rasheed and his place in history.

For me he will always be one of the top three or four Trail Blazers ever in terms of talent and versatility. Before he went into his "I don't want to be here so I'm going ultra-passive" mode I loved his game. He could defend, post, and face-up. He played smart and he played unselfishly. He stepped up his game in the playoffs and took this team pretty deep. The knocks on him were his rebounding (more than fair I think) and the fact that he never relished that end-game, killer "go-to" role. I didn't necessarily fault him for that. He did more than enough to help this team win. If he hadn't bailed on the team and on the game I suspect he would rank among my favorite Blazers ever. As things stand I have to settle for him being a near-lock to make an all-time 12-man Portland roster.

Can Rasheed still make a big difference for somebody in this league? If so, who? And what are your memories/reflections of him? Share below if you wish.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Blazers Summer League Schedule and Roster Announced

Dave — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 02:06:21 -0000

Here's the formal announcement from the Trail Blazers regarding their Summer League schedule and roster.

TRAIL BLAZERS ANNOUNCE 2009 NBA SUMMER LEAGUE ROSTER

PORTLAND, Ore. - The Portland Trail Blazers announced their roster for the 2009 NBA Summer League presented by EA Sports. The team, coached by Trail Blazers assistant coach Joe Prunty, will play five games from July 13-19 at Cox Pavilion and the Thomas & Mack Center on the campus of the University of Nevada , Las Vegas .

Jerryd Bayless will return to summer league competition after earning 2008 NBA Summer League MVP honors by leading the league with 29.8 points per game over four contests. Among those joining Bayless in Las Vegas include all three of Portland's second round selections in the 2009 NBA Draft: Jeff Pendergraph (31^st, Arizona State), Dante Cunningham (33^rd, Villanova) and Patrick Mills (55^th, St. Mary's).

The Trail Blazers open play on Monday, July 13, against the Toronto Raptors at 5 p.m. (Pacific) and wrap up their five-game slate against the NBA D-League Select Team on July 19 at 7 p.m. (Pacific).

Portland Trail Blazers 2009 NBA Summer League Schedule:

Monday, July 13               5 p.m.          Toronto                             Cox Pavilion
Wednesday, July 15          7 p.m.          Houston                            Cox Pavilion
Friday, July 17                  7:30 p.m.     Denver                              Thomas & Mack
Saturday, July 18              7:30 p.m.     San Antonio                    Thomas & Mack
Sunday, July 19                7 p.m.          NBA D-League Select      Cox Pavilion

*Schedule subject to change

2009 NBA Summer League Roster

                                  As of July 1, 2009

Name                     Pos     Ht      Wt      NBA Yrs      Birthdate      From
Deji Akindele           C        6-11   240          R           4-2-83          Chicago State
Jerryd Bayless          G        6-3     200          1           8-20-88        Arizona
Dante Cunningham    F        6-8     227         R           4-22-87        Villanova
Matt Freije              F        6-10 240       2           10-2-81        Vanderbilt
Thomas Gardner       G        6-5     225          2           2-8-85          Missouri
Pooh Jeter               G        5-11   175         R           12-2-83        Portland
Bobby Jones            F        6-7   215          2           1-9-84          Washington
Patrick Mills            G        6-0    175          R           8-11-88        St. Mary's (CA)
Dwayne Mitchell       F        6-5     210          R           8-24-82        Louisiana-Lafayette
David Moss              G/F     6-5     210       R           9-9-83          Indiana State
David Padgett          C        6-11   230          R           2-13-85        Louisville
Jeff Pendergraph      F/C     6-10   240          R           4-29-87        Arizona State
Summer League Head Coach          Joe Prunty (Cal Poly San Luis Obispo )
Trail Blazers Head Coach:             Nate McMillan ( North Carolina State )
Assistant Coaches:                                Dean Demopoulos ( West Chester )
Monty Williams (Notre Dame)
Maurice Lucas ( Marquette )
Kaleb Canales (Texas-Arlington)
Bill Bayno (Sacred Heart)
Head Athletic Trainer:                            Jay Jensen (Loma Linda)
Assistant Trainer & Equipment Manager:    Geoff Clark ( Oregon State )
Strength and Conditioning Coach:             Bob Medina (UNLV)

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Pursuing H.O.F. Point Guards

Dave — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 07:25:03 -0000

More photos » by Donna McWilliam - AP

I'm playing you but I'm thinking about the Blazers. Don't try to pretend you're not. I can tell by the look in your eyes. (AP Photo/Donna McWilliam)

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In the chatter surrounding possible off-season acquisitions two names have come up repeatedly among fans and popular media as potential Portland targets: Steve Nash and Jason Kidd. I'm not sure either is feasible salary-wise but let's leave that aside for a moment and stretch credibility enough to say they're on the radar. Are they desirable?

On the one hand there's a fan-ish part of me that would be awestruck by seeing Nash or Kidd in a Blazer uniform. There's no doubt about these guys' credentials. You want defining point guards in the last decade? They are right at the top of the list. One has been league MVP. The other was a catalyst for his team getting to the Finals. Either of them would instantly become he best point guard the Blazers have had in a decade or more. They've seen it all and done it all, save winning a championship. You don't have to teach. You don't have to explain. You don't have to guess. You're buying blue-chip stock here.

On the other hand you're not getting all of what that fan part of you is celebrating. You may have dreamed of owning a Cadillac all your life. Would you be as happy if you ended up with a Cimmaron instead of an Escalade? It still says Cadillac on the nameplate. It's just not the same experience. The key here is taking the names off the back of the jerseys. Forget Steve Nash and Jason Kidd. If you were considering Harry Meatlock and Joe Schlubowski, two players who played exactly at the level of Nash and Kidd in 2008-09, would you be as excited about adding them to the Blazers?

Steve Nash is on the final year of his contract in 2009-10. He's owed a little over $13 million. He's also going to be 35 years old this season and will be looking to secure his future. He is an amazing passer and a sick, sick percentage scorer. His overall field goal percentage tops 50% (as a guard!) His three-point percentage last year was right at 44%. His effective field goal percentage was 56.6% and his true field goal percentage was 61.5%. He's a 93%+ free throw shooter too. And all of those stats besides the charity tosses were actually down from the season prior. He's better in his impending dotage than most people can dream of in their prime.

However Nash is also used to playing a certain way. Obviously he flourished in Mike D'Antoni's system. Part of his fall-off last year can be attributed to playing a slower, more controlled game. He doesn't have to go 92 miles per minute to succeed though. But he is best when given the ball, freedom, the occasional screen, and guys who will fill the wings for him. None of those things are in long supply in the current Portland setup. Naturally Nash's appearance would change that setup almost immediately, but it would be hard to get the kind of game going that would allow Steve to be the guy we'd all wish for. Brandon Roy likes the halfcourt and likes the ball. Nate McMillan likes percentage offense. The Blazer forwards will run as will Rudy. Oden not so much. Nash might be able to make Greg look better in the pick-and-roll sets however. Would Nash be content with the 70-80% he could get out of his game here? Would the Blazers be content, particularly Roy and Oden? Would the adjustment go smoothly?

Nash doesn't solve Portland's backcourt defense issues. He also makes a near impenetrable roadblock for Jerryd Bayless if you swing that way. Andre Miller, by contrast, would take starter's minutes but you could see Bayless eating away at them if he played well. Nobody behind Nash is going to see more than 12-15 minutes as long as he's on the team.

Jason Kidd is a free agent who just finished making over $21 million last year. Like Nash he's probably looking for the combination of job security and the chance to get a ring. He'll turn 36 in the coming campaign.

Kidd is still a great assist man at almost 9 per game. He's a better rebounder than Nash, averaging 6.2 last year. After a few years of yuckiness and then some more of mediocrity he has boosted his three-point shooting to a nifty 40.6% average. His overall field goal percentage is 41.3%. His effective field goal percentage is 52.2%. His true field goal percentage is 55.0%. These aren't up to Nash's standards but they're not bad. Kidd would also fit more naturally into Portland's halfcourt offensive system. He doesn't need to score. He's made a living making other people look good. The flip side of that is that he was only good for 9 points per game last year, which is not exactly the boost the Blazers are looking for. Historically he's been a much better defender than Nash but he's no longer all-world in that category. At 6'4" and 205lbs he has great size. Kidd is no more back-up friendly than Nash. You get him at 36 and you're going to be playing him until he's 40.

The critical question for both of these players is how much benefit you'd reap compared to the cost. Nash is not coming cheap even if the Suns are motivated to let him go in favor of rebuilding. He's their franchise player. We mentioned Jerryd Bayless playing behind him above but it might not be an issue, as the Suns might want him in return. They'd certainly want Rudy. They'd probably ask for LaMarcus too at first. Maybe they could be talked around but you're still going to pay a premium. On the flip side there's no way Jason Kidd signs in Portland for a small contract. There are teams closer to a title than the Blazers are, which would be his main motivation for taking less money. If he's going to play for $5 million a year why wouldn't he just go to L.A. or Cleveland? The Blazers would have to come up with some kind of sign-and-trade deal with Dallas to make it work. In this case it's not that the Mavericks would be asking a ton, rather that the salary match would be tricky. The Blazers don't have a ton of expendable players who add up to double-digit contracts. They'd need to use their cap space to make this happen...likely all of it.

Which brings up perhaps the greatest rub in all of this: You might be able to envision the Blazers manufacturing one of these deals. But what other moves could they then make? You've more than used up the available cap space and players in trade. You have to ask yourself, as headline-grabbing as these moves would be are they enough alone to make all the difference the Blazers will need in the next couple years? Do they grease the wheels for the years to come? Unless you believe that one of these two players is guaranteed to be the piece that brings rings to Portland you have to be worried about the cost, both real and opportunity, of a move like this.

What's your take? Do either of these guys float your boat, knowing that they don't come cheap? How much of your inner awestruck fan do these names bring out and how much of your inner skeptic?

Comment below...in between your "I just saw Hedo Turkoglu and Andre Miller having lunch with K.P. on S.E. Hawthorne!" comments, that is.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Talking Turkey (Followed by Miller Time)

Dave — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 08:46:41 -0000

Update: Check out this in-depth feature on Hedo over at TrueHoop.

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The old mailbox is full of questions regarding one of the Blazers (supposed) main targets during the off-season, Hedo Turkoglu. Today we're going to take a look at him along with another achievable, rumored target, Andre Miller. Turkoglu is first.

Benefits

Turkoglu would be acquired as the Blazers' starting small forward with an eye to sliding him over to power forward for a few minutes per game to get our young small forward some extra work. He'd be a great all-around offensive guy to fill those positions.

Right now the most critical question you ask about Blazer small forwards is if they can hit the three. Turkoglu has been a good three-point shooter since his second year in the league, averaging 38.5% for his career and 35.6% last year. He's taken around 5 threes per game the last couple of seasons. He's more than capable of taking the offensive pressure off of Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, an aspect which was missing from last year's offense. Turkoglu averaged nearly 20ppg two years ago and almost 17ppg last season. He's a good passer and a great ball-handler for his size. He's a smart player. He draws fouls. He rebounds. He's got playoff experience. He's tall for his position at 6'10". He's 29 years old, which is not bad for a prospective Blazer small forward. You're not necessarily looking to fill that position for six years. You want somebody who will make a tangible difference for the next couple of years while the younger guys bake a little longer. Turkoglu would be a near-seamless addition to the lineup. He'd probably bring the most impact with the least disruption of anyone on the long list of potential acquisitions.

Drawbacks

Though Turkoglu remains productive his production did drop this year. His field goal percentage went from 45.6% to 41.3%. His three-point shooting dropped 44 points. His points per game dropped 2.7. His effective field goal percentage dropped 46 points and his true shooting percentage dropped 35. His PER went down three points even. It's not like you're catching him peaking. The Blazers' current offense will do one thing for him: give him a steady diet of completely open three-point shots. While he should feast on those, you're not exactly maximizing his skills with that system. In order to do that you have to move him around and give him the ball. Even with his assist number hovering around 5 per game I'm not sure you want another guy to give the ball to, especially if you're bringing in a new point guard as well.

Turkoglu draws fouls, which is a huge plus, but he's not a huge threat off the dribble. 80% of his shots are jumpers. His effective field goal percentage off of those last season was 35.6%. That's not great. Nicolas Batum has a good chance of being twice the penetration threat within two years while being able to post comparable three-point percentages. Martell Webster can do the three-point part right now.

Turkoglu averaged 3 turnovers per game two years ago and 2.6 this year. The Blazers don't want miscues from their small forward position.

A couple of years ago Jason Quick, Henry Abbott, Casey Holdahl, and myself were in a Vegas hotel room doing interviews. One of the main subjects at the time was Turkoglu supposedly being offered relatively cheaply around the league. To a man we said he was tantalizing in some aspects but his defense was a deal-killer. It hasn't improved much.

What's more, as Ben detailed yesterday Hedo is more expensive now than he supposedly was then. This will be the last big-earning contract opportunity of his career. He's not going to want to compromise. $10 million per year is not a ton to pay for a bona fide starter who's going to get your franchise over the hump, even if that starter isn't a star in his own right. But that doesn't change the fact that you're buying high here...higher than anyone else ever has for this player. There's a burden of proof there which I'm not sure he matches. The Blazers would love a three-year contract. He will probably want five. Even if they settle at four, that's a large commitment, especially for a guy who is going to decline during that period.

Also I'm having trouble figuring out how Portland would sign Turkoglu outright at the price he's likely to be asking. The $7 million salary he opted out of would have all but erased the Blazers' projected cap space. Unless they're not renewing Outlaw and/or Blake $10 million per year looks out of reach. The Blazers would have to renounce all of their exceptions to scrape together either figure.

Final Thoughts on Turkoglu

The part I can't get over is the Magic were willing, perhaps even happy, to replace this guy with Vince Carter. It's possible they've been snorting too much Mickey Juice down there. But it's also possible that his all-around statistical production looks more impressive on paper than on the court. Were the Blazers to acquire Hedo I'd be cautiously optimistic, with emphasis on the caution. You're probably not getting another major player after that signing. The idea would be that he alone would make the offense so dangerous that it couldn't be dealt with. Even as skilled as he is, I'm not sure he'd live up to that billing.

And now the other guy who's up for grabs, Andre Miller.

Benefits

I've been a closet admirer of Miller for a long time. He has a knack for his position without having to dominate the game to prove it. He's quite a nice passer and has great court vision. You never have to worry about being his teammate. The knock on him during the early part of his career was his offense. But he's developed into a credible threat, albeit as a generalist. He's balanced between jumpers and drives, hitting high percentages either way he goes. His true shooting percentage is high because he draws free throws and shoots them exquisitely. He rebounds well for his position, like Turkoglue showing himself as a strong statistical player. At 32 he's seen everything the league has to offer. He's never played fewer than 80 games per season in his 10-year career, nor fewer than 34 minutes per game in any season but his first. He'd likely be able to come to terms with playing for Brandon Roy. He'd also be able to mentor the younger Blazer point guards. Unlike Turkoglu he's unlikely to demand a repeat of his $10 million per year salary, making him an affordable option for Portland, especially with his minute-eating playing style.

Drawbacks

There are two serious ones. First, he's not a three-point shooter. No...he's the anti-three-point shooter. When three-point shooters come into contact with him they both explode and create a space-time vortex. Dr. Egon Spengler is constantly on the sideline yelling, "Don't cross the shot arcs!" Jon and Kate Gosselin have a closer relationship than Andre Miller and the three-point line. Need I go on? Let's just say Miller's 21% lifetime three-point shooting percentage doesn't exactly fit the mold for a Portland point guard right now. Two seasons ago he shot 8.8% for the year. Last year he upped it to 28.3% but still...this isn't exactly home-run slugger territory. It's more like toddler at a piñata party. "Over the girders, through the fountain, against the scoreboard, past the chicken, and off the shot clock" used to be a classic line from a Jordan-Bird H-O-R-S-E commercial. That's Miller's normal release from distance. Granted, part of the purpose of acquiring new players is to diversify the offensive portfolio at their various positions. But with Greg Oden clogging more space in the middle and Brandon Roy still brutally effective driving the ball, I don't foresee a day when three-point shooting isn't a strong part of the Blazers' job description for point guards.

The other drawback to Miller echoes Turkoglu: the defense. He was never considered much more than adequate and he hasn't improved with age, nor is he likely to. A backcourt of Roy and Miller would strike fear in the hearts of opposing offensive players like Mary Kate and Ashley strike fear in the hearts of buffet owners. As we've said before, this is an issue not only for the guards in question but for Portland's centers as well. You'd like Oden (particularly) and Przybilla to be able to target their defensive play instead of always running to put out the latest fire.

Another question the Blazers would have to answer about Miller is what the plan is behind him. At 32 and counting this guy isn't likely to give you four super-productive years. You're looking at a two-year rental. Who's being brought up during that time? Jerryd Bayless is the obvious (and only) answer but you have to realize that if he doesn't pan out--specifically as a point guard at that--your cupboard is all but empty and you'll be starting over again. The only other alternative is praying that Roy or Rudy can take the spot or making yet another trade.

Final Thoughts on Miller

Andre Miller does enough things right and could come at a cheap enough cost that he may be an answer in the short term. The time for this move was really two years ago though. It's hard at this point to consider him much more than settling. Then again, maybe a little settling is enough to put Portland in position to make the next step.

Final Musings

When you look at two all-around guys like Turkoglu and Miller you start thinking the Detroit model of championship-building, which is pretty much what the Blazers are going to have to try. The Pistons only won one though. Detroit also won it with defense first, which neither of these moves lend themselves to. My response to Portland signing either player would be the same: color me interested but not ecstatic.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Bye Frye

Dave — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:30:50 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Awwww...man! Why do you want to do me like that?

Browse more photos »

Jason Quick is reporting that the Trail Blazers will not make a qualifying offer to forward Channing Frye. This was somewhat expected as it clears more cap space this summer than any other move the Blazers could make. Obviously you know the Blazers are going after someone, otherwise they'd not be letting talent go for nothing.

As far as Frye goes, he'll play somewhere. He's a good player and an even better personality. Somebody is going to give him the minutes he'll need in order to make an impact. I'm sure the entire team and affiliated media would join together in wishing him nothing but the best, and in heartfelt manner as well. If the Blazers had any kind of space for a guy of his skills he'd still be here. It's just a case of right player, wrong fit. Channing is too good in all of the wrong areas. More defense, more rebounding, and more suitability to being a role player are the orders of the day at that spot.

Thank you, Channing. Try not to burn us too badly wherever you end up.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

The Big Move?

Dave — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 08:03:33 -0000

After a short (and much-needed) hiatus following the draft we're back and ready to tackle the summer free agency period. Are there going to be moves? Yes. Of what flavor? Well, that whole draft thing should have told you not to try and anticipate Kevin Pritchard...or at least not to bet too much on your guess.

However to start with we'll address the burning question of the hour: Do the Blazers need to make a big move in order to keep up with the San Antonios, Clevelands, and Orlandos of the world?

I suppose it depends what your definition of "big" is. But if your definition includes a name-brand, 30-year-old, declining star that answer is "no". Or at least "you'd better target the right one".

I was surprised at the number of comments I saw during the draft that claimed Kevin Pritchard had lost his touch or was afraid to pull the trigger on a real deal. The open question in my mind is whether the Blazers over-value youth, especially among players they, themselves, have drafted. They have to turn prospects into players. If that's not happening (or not happening quickly enough in the right positions) internally they're going to have to trade some of them away for more stable production. But the timing and content of those moves remain open to debate. We've felt ripples from that ongoing discussion, but I've seen nothing to indicate that Blazer management is timid or misguided as some have suggested. The simplest explanation is usually the best. Pritchard didn't pull the trigger on a deal because the right deal wasn't out there...at least not before or during the draft.

When you look at the three teams that did make big deals it's easy to get caught up in the headlines. Three All-Star-type players got traded for what amounted to canned parsnips and salary relief. It was a garage sale, NBA-style. There might as well have been a round, orange sticker on top of Shaq's head. But the three teams that acquired them all came at their transactions from a similar angle. Orlando and Cleveland are within sight of the summit. Cleveland has been spinning its wheels for a while and has gone through a ton of roster make-overs without gaining traction. Orlando lost this year's Finals and faced the prospect of taking a giant step backwards in losing small forward Hedo Turkoglu. San Antonio, meanwhile, has slipped over the other side of the summit and is trying to crawl their way back before they run out of time. It made sense for all of these teams to take a stab at huge-salary, semi-broken, tread-worn stars. Every team does this when they're stuck. It seldom works, but you have to try.

How, exactly, is Portland like those teams? Short answer: it isn't. Portland's best years are still ahead. The Blazers aren't stalled yet. They have a ton of time left on the clock. Shaq would likely have helped the Blazers last year for one playoff run. They wouldn't have won a title with him. They probably still wouldn't this year. Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson could help win a couple games more but their particular skills and needs don't match up seamlessly with Portland's holes. And again, how many years would they be of service? The entire benefit of a deal like this is short-term. That short-term gain for the Blazers wouldn't be enough. The long-term cost could be great, especially when other moves are in the making. The opportunity cost of losing someone who fit better now and could perform better in two years would be significant enough to nix such a deal.

If the Blazers can make a move to put themselves on the short list for a championship right now they should make that move. Unless that move is available, however, it would be the height of folly to sacrifice what you've built up in terms of talent and flexibility just to keep up with the Popoviches. If you're making moves to keep up you're already behind and you're likely to stay that way.

The truth is it doesn't matter what San Antonio does. San Antonio is not blocking our window. No matter how this Jefferson move works out they're going to be long gone before the Blazers hit their prime. If Shaq or Vince Carter matter much in the East it will be for the next couple of years at most, which means those moves don't matter much to us either.

The Blazers are all but done taxiing now. They are in line for the runway and the flight attendants are preparing for take-off. The wait is one more season. Sometime this year you're going to hear the tower clear us, you're going to feel the thrust of the engines, and you'll hear Pritchard and McMillan calling out V-1 and V-2. But we don't hit cruising altitude until 2010. Salary and balance considerations are going to force us to make moves this summer, but those moves are pointing at the new decade, not this one. Judge them, or the temporary lack thereof, accordingly.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)