Rehash the game in this thread whilst awaiting the official recap and the Media Row Report.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Conversation commencing in your second-half thread.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Let the games begin!  Discuss everything game-related in this thread.  Keep it respectful, welcome newcomers, and avoid links to illegal feeds or requests for same please.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Welcome to the first home game in a while.  Here's your chance to jaw about Portland's chances of defeating the Kings tonight.  Please keep it respectful and on-topic.  Enjoy!

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

by Bill Haber - AP

Not the best defensive strategy...

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Game Time: 7:00 P.M.  TV:  KGW

Well, well, well...look who's making a game go of it this season.  The Sacramento Kings mosey into town with a 10-12 record, third in their division and within spitting distance of .500.  Unfortunately they face a Blazers team also within spitting distance of .500 from the other direction.  The saliva may come from spit-takes, rage, or just a drunken stupor from trying to drown your woes, but the spit is flying in Portland nevertheless.  It's never, ever good for a team that is not meeting expectations to face a team that is meeting them and more.  But that's what Portland faces tonight.

Sacramento's wins have come in clumps this season.  They lost 4 of 5 to start the year, rattled off 4 straight wins, followed that up with 4 straight losses, then won 4 again and lost 4 again for good measure.  Unfortunately for the Blazers they won against Minnesota the other night, which would make this Win #2 of 4 for them if the pattern holds.  The Kings have had a couple of quality wins (Utah, Houston) but not many.  The question, as always, is whether Portland is a quality team.  I'll drink my coffee while you discuss.

The Kings love to shoot and they love to score.  Their 47.8% shooting clip ranks them 5^th in the league.  They're also 4^th in the league in three-point shooting at 38.1%.  It's easier to list the guys on their team who can't fill it up:  Sean May, Ime Udoka, Desmond Mason, Kenny Thomas, Jon Brockman.  Not coincidentally I just mentioned 5 of the 6 lowest players on the rotation totem pole.  That means all of the guys you're going to actually see you have to defend.  Five guys on the floor, all the time.

This isn't unusual for a Sacramento squad, but they're doing a couple of things to bolster their overall game this season.  First they're scoring a lot of those points in the paint, and this despite having a decidedly perimeter-oriented center in Spencer Hawes.  You can thank a couple of things.  First, they fast-break fairly well.  Second, say hello to Jason Thompson.  The guy's already had 7 games of 20 points or more this year.  He's shooting over 50%, drawing 5 fouls per game, nabbing 9 rebounds a night including an amazing 3.6 offensive boards...what's not to like?

And he's not even the biggest story on the Kings this year.  That honor belongs to rookie point guard Tyreke Evans who in the absence of super-scorer Kevin Martin is averaging a cool 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists for the season.  Take that, Brandon Jennings!  He also draws fouls and he's a fair pickpocket besides.

After those two the roster gets more familiar.  Point guard Beno Udrih still loves him some scoring.  But this year because of all of the attention being drawn elsewhere he's averaging an incredible 55% from the field.  Forward Andres Nocioni still has the green light from the three-point arc and still hits them.  Spencer Hawes will face you up for the jumper and helps Thompson corral those offensive boards.  Donte Green is filling in for Martin at shooting guard but is sporadic in his production.  The last two names in the regular rotation have Blazer connections.  Rookie small forward Omri Casspi, rumored to be on Portland's short draft list,  is shooting 52% from the field, 49% from the arc, and has scored in double figures in 9 of the last 10 games he's played.  And then our old friend Sergio Rodriguez haunts the Sacramento roster.  He's only gotten steady playing time in the last three weeks or so but he responded with games of 16, 15, and famously 24 against the Hornets at the end of last month.  Both his shooting and three-point percentages are stellar so far and he's managing to drop a few dimes in his 17-ish minutes per game.

Despite the offensive success Sacramento still faces a familiar bugaboo.  They defend like a wet Kleenex.  And I guarantee you the Kleenex people are angry about that reference.  They allow the same marvelous 47%+ field goal clip that they shoot.  Only Minnesota and New Jersey allow more fast break points per game.  Their defensive efficiency is below the dreaded Golden State line.  Only Memphis allows more points in the paint.  As a result they score 105 and give up 105.  They can't outrun their shortcomings nor can they shoot them dead.  They're forced to rely on getting more good shots than their opponents.  As mentioned above that's often directly related to how good the opponent is with the possible addition of how hard the opponent plays.  The question, as always, is whether Portland will play hard tonight.  I'll drink my coffee while you discuss.

In all seriousness this could be a bad matchup for the Blazers.  The Kings play their entire available roster and run with them.  The Blazers have 9 players healthy and generally prefer to walk.  Portland has trouble defending 2 guys, let alone 5 at a time.  The possibilities off of a single screen are staggering, especially when you consider one of their big men can shoot.  They've got an aggressive point guard.  They've got multiple people who have to be guarded on the perimeter.  That's a lot for the Blazers to keep up with.

On the other hand the Blazers need a win tonight like Frosty needs a freezer.  In case it slipped your mind it's Phoenix on Thursday then on the road for four against Orlando, Miami, Dallas, and San Antonio, then back for Denver and Philadelphia, whom the Blazers never seem to play well.  Carrying three straight losses into that Phoenix game would be sad.  And the month could go from sad to pathetic really quickly.  Looking up at the Kings in the standings was not on Portland's to-do list for 2010.  But the dawn of the new year could see exactly that if the Blazers aren't careful.

Keys to the Game

Where to start?

1.  No matter what else happens the Blazers have to score.  They probably need to do it by driving the lane as well.  Getting into a jump-shooting contest with the Kings is a bad idea, especially with half a roster.  They'll foul if you drive.  Eventually they'll let you score if you drive.  Just drive once in a while, please?

2.  If you're looking to take points away from them the easiest places to start are the most basic:  get back in transition, take away their offensive boards.  LaMarcus Aldridge will almost certainly be watching Spencer Hawes tonight but he needs to remember that even though Hawes likes the jumper he will also go for offensive rebounds.  Your job isn't over when the ball goes up.

3.  The real problem here is that Portland needs to defend a good perimeter scorer, a good low scorer, plus guys who can drain threes around them.  That screams straight man-to-man but the Blazers are spotty and prefer to throw zones and switches in there.  An occasional zone might change things up but those switches on picks are going to be a killer.  Remember Hawes can shoot.  If you can figure out how to solve this issue with the current roster you're a better person than I.  But the Blazers are going to have to do something to avoid being picked into oblivion.

4.  Whatever happens, keep the energy up.  Pursuant to that, I hope the crowd is into it tonight.

Final Thoughts

For the first time in a long time I don't have a great gauge on the Blazers right now.  I'm not saying I can predict every game correctly but I usually have a decent feel for what kind of game it's going to be.  Lately it's been a grab-bag.  That's not comfortable for me and I can't imagine it's comfortable for the players involved either.  Despite the offensive prowess this is a team against whom you can start dictating some things.  That might be a good idea tonight.

Say hello to SactownRoyalty

Enter tonight's Jersey Contest here.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Jerryd Bayless tries to squeeze in some more playing time.

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For reasons big and small, Jerryd Bayless is a hot topic lately among Portland fans. And nowhere does the topic get hotter than when discussing his effect on the floor and how much playing time he should or shouldn't be getting vis a vis the other guards on the team.  We've written about it extensively here but my inbox still fills up with questions regarding his status, impact, and future prospects.  I'm not going to try to deliver the definitive treatise here but I want to look at some of the concepts involved in determining Jerryd's court time and especially to what extent the general assessment that he needs to get more is accurate.

For a comparative look at the backcourt I visited our old friends at 82Games.com.  Click through for some of the key stats they list followed by general analysis.

Continue reading this post »

Arrgh.  It stinks to have to write about another loss.  But you kind of knew when the game went into overtime, let alone double-overtime, that this would be a hard one for the Blazers to pull out.  Shorthanded and on the tail end of a road swing against a team that's been waiting isn't a good recipe for extra-period success.  Nevertheless the Blazers had their chances but couldn't overcome their mistakes and in the end couldn't pull out the win.

The game started with both teams looking to their big men to provide scoring.  LaMarcus Aldridge tore up the Bucks most of the night.  Andrew Bogut returned the favor.  Both were mobile enough and had enough range to their game that their counterparts couldn't stop them.  Centers and power forwards were the order of the day early and the Blazers were fine with that.  But when the various guards stepped up to the plate Portland got outplayed.  Luke Ridnour did damage in the first half, carrying the torch for Brandon Jennings who didn't attempt a single shot in the opening 24 minutes of the game.  Michael Redd chipped in a little bit.  On the other side Brandon Roy was quiet and Steve Blake and Andre Miller were noisy in all the wrong ways...and in the clanging of loud rims.  Nobody but Martell Webster could hit a three.  By now you know what happens to the Blazer offense when nobody hits threes.  Portland exited the first period down 5 and it looked like it could be a long night.

In the second period Roy went on a run, which in turn developed some shots for Martell and for Jerryd Bayless.  Bayless didn't get many opportunities but he did well with what he had.  Martell was still doing well in the first half, so it actually made a decent lineup.  It's important to realize that many of these shots were coming off of movement and screens, which seems to be a consistent factor when Portland's offense is going well.  The Bucks, meanwhile, suffered from a lack of backcourt scoring.  Also Andrew Bogut sat out half the period.  That was a bad combination for the Bucks.  Portland made an enormous comeback behind their rejuvenated backcourt and turned the 5-point deficit into a 5-point lead at the half.

Apparently Brandon Jennings looked at the stat sheet at the half and realized it is really hard to win Rookie of the Year without attempting any shots whatsoever.  Perhaps he looked at LeBron tape from last night's game as well.  Whatever the cause, he came out in the third quarter firing.  The Blazers had to know it was coming but they're a little shy on point guard defense at the moment.  Once Jennings hit a couple of threes the court opened up for anything Milwaukee liked.  It was like going through a pound box of See's soft-center candies for them.  No matter what they picked, everything was good.  Portland started the period by driving inside but after they were rejected at the rim they apparently decided that three-point shooting was the better part of valor.  They got a couple of close shots but mostly it was Brick City.  Only some well-timed free throws saved the period from total disaster.  (You'll recall that giving up copious amounts of charity tosses is in Milwaukee's M.O.)  The game's wobble increased again as the Bucks outscored the Blazers by 15.  For those counting that means the first quarter one team outscored the other by 5, the second quarter it was by 10, the third quarter was by 15, and the superior team alternated each quarter.

Obviously all of the people who believe in an orderly universe are assuming that Portland outscored the Bucks by 20 in the final period and walked out victorious.  You're half right.  They outscored the Bucks by 10.  Both Roy and Aldridge came alive at the same time to spur the comeback.  They even helped each other out a time or two, which is something you don't see often.  Milwaukee shared the ball but maybe they should have considered going with Jennings, Bogut, or Ridnour alone as the Blazers couldn't seem to stop any of them.  In the process of sharing the ball with each other they also shared it plenty of times with Portland, aiding the comeback's progress.  Andre Miller was the third scorer for the Blazers in the period but he was a mixed blessing.  It's easy to love the 5 points and especially the 4 assists he posted in the period.  It's difficult to forgive two critical turnovers down the stretch when Portland had a chance to score crucial buckets.  They were nearly identical, featuring Miller trying to force the tempo by driving against superior numbers on the break when his teammates weren't with him.  He got stripped both times, once by Redd and once by Jennings.  Both of these occurred in the last two minutes of a then-tight game.  The first one the Blazers got right back.  Not so the second.  But either one could have made the difference and you don't expect that kind of thing from a 14-year veteran point guard.  That's not to pin the loss on Miller...it was a group effort.  But it's indicative that every time the Blazers felt the win in their sails in this game they hit a rock.

The final 38 seconds of regulation featured a medley of nice offensive plays.  Andrew Bogut hit a hook shot to put the Bucks up three then Brandon Roy pulled the defense to him and threaded a sweeeeeet pass to LaMarcus Aldridge for a dunk plus the foul to tie it.  After the big man had their curtain call Brandon Jennings made a teardrop runner in the lane to recapture the lead by 2 followed by Brandon Roy hitting a turn-around with 12 seconds left that was so bad that we would have barbequed anyone but Brandon who took it.  We maybe would have barbequed him too but we'll never know because it went in.  You could almost hear the Bucks' fans (who were quite vocal and sounded amazing all game, by the way) lose their beer and pretzels.  The Bucks almost got a tip-in off of a missed Jennings jumper at the buzzer but it was a nanosecond or two too late.  Overtime.

The overtime started out well.  After Andrew Bogut made a layup followed by a short Roy jumper the Blazers fed a running Aldridge thrice.  It was like three punches to Milwaukee's ribs.  It looked like they could be headed for the exit.  Unfortunately the Blazers never scored again after the third conversion.  Perhaps they relaxed.  Perhaps they were fatigued.  Certainly we began to see signs of the perimeter defense breaking down as the Milwaukee smalls scored repeatedly, often times after a screen left them either free or mismatched.

There was a semi-controversial play near the end of the overtime wherein the officials invoked instant replay review for a second time in the game, the first having been the shot at the end of regulation.  Milwaukee missed a shot and there was a scrum for the rebound.  LaMarcus Aldridge was touching the ball but hadn't fully controlled it yet when two Bucks tried to tip it away from behind.  They succeed and the ball went out of bounds along the baseline.  The officials initially awarded the ball to the Blazers but the video review would show that LaMarcus' hand was the last to touch it (by about the same nanosecond as before) so they reversed their call.  Technically they were correct in their determination.  Full marks there.  But this does highlight that even instant replay isn't foolproof because technical correctness sometimes breaks precedent.  Every other call in the game is made in real-time.  And made in real time that call always goes against the team whose players come from behind to tip.  Had this been any time but the last, critical moments of the game that would have been Portland's ball.  As it was, the call was made differently because it was reviewed.  This begs the question:  is technical correctness really correct or is it consistency?

Anyway, Brandon Jennings made a final shot to end the overtime and we were knotted again.

There's not much to say about the second OT except that the Blazers looked even more tired.  Jumpers fell well short.  Brandon Roy drove expecting to get fouled and threw up the shot as an afterthought.  In overtime games you have to get the shot in and expect the foul to be called as an afterthought.  Needless to say, he came away with neither.  Meanwhile the perimeter defense got even worse as switches on screens became comical.  Jennings, Ridnour, and guard Carlos Delfino scored repeatedly.  Portland did not.  End of game.

The Blazers didn't hit enough jumpers and didn't throw a wide enough defensive net to win in this game and that's pretty much the story.  They're tired.  They're banged up.  They need to go home and hope to recover with a little rest and a friendly crowd.

Click through for the rest...

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Discuss the extra time and then react to the game here until the recap becomes available.  Enjoy!

Note that tonight's recap will come somewhat late.  Give your best shot at an official recap until then.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

The conversation continues here...

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

Tip-off is here!  The mighty Blake vs. Ridnour battle is nigh!  Who will take the trophy?  And does anybody care?  Discuss both gentlemen and the game right here.  Please stay on-topic and follow site guidelines, including the prohibition on posting illegal links.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)