Well I tried to call out Tkachuk for his play recently in the game thread and got shit and pissed on for it.  It could have been the way I attempted to vent my anger, so I will try to make a better argument in hopes of people being able to objectively look at his play and not just think I was trying to get back at Walt for fucking my woman in the sandhole…or something.

I played hockey for 15 years, have been watching the Blues all my life.  I say this because I would like to think I know a little bit about the game and I am not a frosted tip douche bag like those we love to have on the STLtoday boards.  So don’t start with the hate yet.

I will start off with what I would call logical arguments for Walt not playing well.  What is his skill set right now?  He is not a playmaker, a goal scorer, a face-off specialist, or good on the stopper line.  Does anyone have confidence in him to turn an odd man rush, or any kind of rush, into a scoring opportunity when he is carrying the puck into the zone? Not me.  Or what about the energy or skill set to take over 2 minutes of a game when we are tied or down by 1 and need to win.  I don’t think he can do that anymore.  He can’t pass all that well, obviously can’t handle a pass, and in the game against the Sharks (I think) he fell down at least 5 times either b/c he couldn’t skate or was pushed off the puck with minimal effort.  At best, he can win some battles on the board and stand in front of the net to get garbage goals (I don’t mean to take away from the value of those goals…its just that I don’t think it takes any special kind of player to be able to do that.  I think you should be able to stick most any of your players on your NHL team in front of the net and expect them to get the job done).  I know Murray’s style of play emphasizes dumping the puck in and gaining control (something Walt should presumably still be able to do) but if that was the case, wouldn’t he have more assists or at least be at a fairly respectful +/- (as of the time I am writing this after his goal in the first period, he is at a -1 for the year).  Basically, if you put Walt in a different jersey without his name or 7 on the back of it, I’m pretty sure we would all think his ability to help this team on the ice is quite minimal.

Now for some numbers.  Since October 10 in our 2-1 loss against LA (15 games not including last night) he has 4 pts (all assists).  He has 17 SOG and that includes a stretch of four games where he registered 0 SOG.  He has not scored (before last night) since October 8 against ATL.  Now yes, the whole team has been playing poorly of late, and I’m not trying to single out Tkachuk at all.  However, his skill set and style of play makes him one of the most, if not the most, expendable player on the team (or at least the most expendable forward on the team).  Crombeen, McClement and Steen are a great stopper unit and have a solid place on the team.  Boyes, Backes, Oshie, Perron, McDonald, all have enough skill to call what they are going through a “scoring slump”.  Karyia has skill too, but he may be getting to old and I’m not willing to attack or defend him right now.  Janssen will always have a place on this team.  Tkachuk and Winchester seem to be the odd players out.  Winchester had a nice year last year where one could think he may be an ascending player, but he sure doesn’t have the history or pedigree to warrant any kind of slack and thinking he will be a good-solid player.  That just leaves Big Walt (along with Berglund who is an enigma. I don’t wanna go near there).  Again, I am only talking about on the ice contributions here.  For a team that is struggling so much on the power play and to score goals, I don’t see where to give someone like Walt a significant amount of ice time or even put him on a prime line.  Even with his limited role, his play seems so bad that he makes the best of not helping the team even though he has a limited role.  Basically, if everyone is playing shitty, something has gotta give.  And that something, to me, seems to be Tkachuk.  He is a cool dude and great leader, but this team needs on ice skill right now.  Make him a coach if you want him around this team.  Again, I know this team has a lot of problems right now. As a team, we take too many low percentage shots and don’t open up any kind of a shooting lane.  Our defensive core as a whole is no where near dynamic enough. But for the most part, this is the same team as last year.  As well as we played in the 2nd half last year, we played just as poorly in the first half.  You can make just as good an argument saying that we would be a bad team this year based on our first half as you could thinking we would be good this year because of our 2nd half. 

If you disagree, OK…what does Walt bring to this team while he is on the ice?  What does he bring on the ice that no other, or few other players on this team couldn’t bring?  I think his skill set is average at best and replaceable at worst.  And I know he scored last night, but anyone who saw that goal should not be impressed with it at all.  The initial shot was incredibly pathetic and he pretty much ran into the goalie to put the puck in the net.

Not sure if this deserves a fanpost, but I was thinking (due to local talk radio in St. Louis)...what major moves do the Cardinals need to be as good/better next year.  It seems to me that beyond the obvious (resign Holliday or trade/sign a productive 4 hitter who plays the OF), the bullpen seems to be quite the popular place to upgrade.  Surprisingly to me, most people say we need to shore up the back end.  I am not a fan of McLellan as he still seems to lack the control you need in a high leverage guy in the bullpen (those walks and first pitch balls really put ya back when you're comming into situations with runners already on base)....the LOOGYs were great this year, and even though he melted down, Franklin was an all star with an 88 save %....I dont know the exact numbers but people say to move him back into the 8th inning (which i suppose is OK, but Franklin still needs credit for a pretty nice year).  Anyways, to the meat.  If we are going to look for a strikeout, shutdown closer, we will need to trade for a cheap guy...a la Jonathan Papelbon, who just so happens seems to be speculation out there that the Red Sox could dangle him for an impact bat...Ludwick anyone??

I would be in favor of this kind of trade, with some contingencies.  First, must bring in an impact bay (Bay) or resign Holliday...I don't think our system can bring in any impact value right now, so our options seem to be limited in that regard.  But if we can do that, that seems to shore up a pretty nice back end of the bullpen (remember how short the games were vs the Dodgers b/c of their bullpen???)  Motte (who i think will make some nice strides forward next year, Franklin, then Papelbon??  Seems like a wet dream for TLR and Dunc....now for the whole in RF.

I say bye bye to Ankiel..and I'm not sold on Mather as an everyday player nor even platooning with Jay or Craig...Abreu seems to be a nice (although probably not cheap) short term option, but should fit into our budget in terms of dollars and years

1 Schu - 4

2 Rasums -8

3 Pujols -3

4 Holliday -7 (or Bay)

5 Abreu-9

6 Freese - 5

7-Molina -2

8 Ryan -6

Maybe switch Freese and Rasmus (even move Rasmus to 5 and slide Abreu to 6) so Freese can have the best place to hit in baseball...2 moves, substaitally changes our team (not signing DeRosa and Pinero should offset losing our 1st round pick for signing Abreu)....i actually think i may like

1. Shcu

2. Ryan

3. Pujols

4.Holliday (or Bay)

5. Rasmus

6. Abreu

7 Freese

8 Molina (i hate having him 8th b/c he is so slow and forces a perfect bunt for the pitchers to advance him, and then even on 2nd its not a garuntee he scores on a single by schu or ryan)

I've only been reading GameTime for a couple months and god damn do i love it.  this is my first post and its awesome to talk some hockey hot stove.

In the recent trade talks for Pronger or Heatly there seems to be a general agreement that Perron would be the centerpeice b/c Oshie and Berglund are untouchable.  Along with EJ, Perron should be deemed untouchable as well.

1. He is still incredibly young and raw.  If i remember correctly, the first year he was draft eligible he didnt get drafted or didnt sign, and then had a huge year in juniors the next year.  He was a one year wonder when we drafted him in the 1st round and considered a raw project.  He has made HUGE strides every year, and was arguably our best player in the playoffs this year.  He is only getting better.  It could be argued that his skill and talent is the best of our young guys, but his hockey makeup, IQ, and maturity are all lagging....they will catch up plenty, dont worry.
2. I was reading this article at PuckProspectus.com about their new metric of Offensive Contribution Percentage and define it as, "as the percentage of all goals scored while a player is on the ice for which he was awarded either a goal or an assist."  Not only is Perron the best on the blues at a OC % of 81.4%, but that was good for 6th best in the NHL ahead of players such as Henrik Sedin and Phil Kessel(who some think would have been a better draft pick than EJ that year)....plain and simlpe, Perron is one of the best IN THE NHL at setting up goals.
3. That article also points out that Perron's OC% went up this past year while his linemate's play (or the "even-strength goals-for-average while he was on the ice") went down in performance.  This kid is good.
4. Perron is no Heatly and never will be that kind of player...but he can be a 100 PT player and out of our young kids, he has the highest chance of scoring 50 goals a season, we havent had a player who was able to consisently do that since Hull.  Perron is the closest prospect do being what every hockey fan, coach, and team want....a pure goal scorer who can put it past the goalie 50 times a season.

Now I am not saying that Perron, Oshie, Berglund, EJ, Peitro, etc should all be untouchable...that would be retarded and unrealistic....but if we ARE throwing those names around as being untouchable, Perron belongs maybe not at #1 (EJ) but probably #2  and definitly ahead of Oshie and Berglund.

Lets say that this is TLR last season with the cards.  I can't see him going anywhere else (what team would need TLR, b/c he isn't gonna go to a young struggling team) so I am going to assume he is going to retire.  I think Duncan stays with the Cards b/c he isn't betraying TLR and I would assume having Chris around is more important to him.  So as long as we have lil dunc, I think papa dunc will stay for a bit.

Also, it seems no matter how bad we play (and I do think we will play better, maybe not .630 ball, but better) I think we will be within striking distance of the division at least until the trade deadline.  But even if we aren't, and rolen heats up to become the rolen of old, do we really wanna trade him?  No.  I think he would be one of our only valuable trading piece (who wants Edmonds???) but as someone else said, we can't rebuild with Pujols in his prime.  Who do we replace Rolen with?  I don't think we could get enough prospects for him to package them with some of our prospects to get miggy.  Rolen is our best option at 3rd for this year and the next few years.  

If Mulder comes back and proves he is reliable and effective, I say trade Looper.  He is a cheap and, so far, good starting pitcher with another year left.  I think we could actually get some decent players for him.  Possibly trade him to the Mets who could very well need pitching by the time for Lastings Milledge.  

If we do indeed raise a white flag, then ship out Izzy.  I love him and I do think he is back, but there is no sense in paying a closer that much or pick up his option for next year if we don't think we can win now.  If we are not gonna win this year, we are not gonna win next year b/c we have no impact prospects for this year and no FA that we would realistically go get.  Trading Izzy and Looper could stack us for next year with some impact guys.  This could especially happen if TLR isn't hear next year b/c I think he is the only reason we put so much emphasis on the closer role.

Finally, I hope none of this matters b/c our core gets their act together and make this team good again.  Go Cards!

has anyone been able to find a picture of Larussa's tattoo?  If so...where can i find it.  thanks.  Now i have to type 300 characters to fill the room on the post.  Does dennis dove have a real shot at making the bullpen?  How high is his trade value right now?  I haven't heard much about ryan franklin this spring.....anything new with him?                  

this is not one of those posts where i propose trading tyler johnson for a-rod (b/c that is such a one sided trade) but
A) why not let eck walk and
B)why not make a serious run at a-rod either during the season or next offseason if he pulls a jd drew and opts out of his contract.  i think it is definitly plausible but walt would need to get real creative to bring him here no matter through a trade or FA. he would not have the pressure of being the number 1 name on the team and would have a great supporting cast.  i actually think this makes a lot of sense.

any suggestions on how this could happen and if you would want it to happen?

i know this is really far in the future but all this hotstove gets me excited and there is really nothing new going on right now.  so i was thinking about after this upcomming year.  We will have a rotation of Carp, Mulder, Reyes, Waingwright, and __.  That seems pretty damn good.  Izzy's $9 million or so will be gone and encarnation will be in the last year of his contract.  Pujols and Rolen should still be all-stars with really the only question marks at short and closer.  Besides Zambrano...are there any realistic impact free agents after this year we could not only use but make nice offers to or any other moves you would like to see done after this year.  

ps isnt colon a free agent too after this year??

The cards have a lot of money to spend.  If they miss out on Schmidt, I would not be unhappy to see a rotation of
1.Carp
2.Weaver
3.Reyes
4.Wainwright
5.Wells
6.Mulder for a late season comeback
This would still leave us around 12 mill to spend.  If we can package Duncan, Izzy/Looper(for salary dump reasons) and maybe TJ and possibly two other pretty good prospects (Hawksworth & ___??) or even have the Red Sox eat some of Manny's salary...we would have enough money to get an impact bat and corner outfielder.  Anyway to get Manny behind Pujols would be amazing, and with the aforementioned rotation I think that would be a pretty formidable team.  Any chances the Sox are open to this kind of package?

MLBtraderumors.com says the yankees are looking for a firstbaseman and are looking for possible trades.  Are they that high on melky cabrerra where they wouldn't trade him for Duncan?  It seems to work out pretty well for both clubs as it fills needs and swaps two young cheap players.  Maybe even throw in Looper to sweeten the deal.

Any thoughts??

I am just as upset as everyone else about our inability to swing a blockbuster trade and land someone who would drastically upgrade this team.  But I think that what Jocketty did was exactly what he said he would do.  Belliard over miles is a HUGE upgrade (and that is what the trade really comes down to, no matter what you think about Luna) and in fact they have expressed interest to re-sign him.  That means ownership is backing up their claim to be willing to spend more money.  I'snt that nice to see them willing to give more money to that position?  With that said, who out there would really have been a realistic upgrade?  I don't think we ever had a chance with Abreu and Soriano.  Considering our needs, our trading chips,  and the market out there, I think the cards did everything they could.  Again, what else could Jocketty realistically have done?