Here's something to talk about as the Astros give up yet another homer to the Rockies...

1) Draft content posting all the time - I know the draft profiles have been going up fast and furious lately, but don't despair. I've collected the past six days worth in one easy to read table below. We've got four more days of content before the draft, and I'll post an updated list with all our profiles on the day of the draft.

Until then, feel free to browse through the ones we've done so far. Today, we'll be tackling more high school hitters, with a mix of intriguing guys set for Friday before we finish strong with five No. 1 overall candidates on Sunday.

So far, my favorite guys have been Almora, Rhymes and Giolito, but that's just me. Who have your favorites been?

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Summary

The bar for being a productive catcher in the major leagues is low. It's not low in that it's still very, very hard to play baseball at that high a level, but it's lower for catchers than for lots of other positions.

Which is why you can re-calibrate expectations for catchers. A guy who profiles with average power at other positions becomes above-average for a catcher. The flip side of that is that a guy who has to move off the position can go from being a great prospect to an average one with one small switch in positions.

Why is this relevant? Because Tom Murphy could be one of the best catchers in the draft, but he's not really one of the best hitters. He's got good power, but may not be able to make great contact consistently in the majors. He's good defensively, and has a good chance at sticking with catching in the future.

Murphy provides a ton of value as long as he stays at catcher. Even if he doesn't hit for a high average in the pros, he's got a pretty good eye and figures to be an above-average to average defensive player. That means he could easily end up like John Buck or even a non-hyped Matt Wieters.

For a Houston team that's pretty thin at catcher, Murphy would make a lot of sense if he's there in the second or third round.

Floor

J.P. Arencibia

Ceiling

Todd Hundley

Projected Draft Round

Baseball America has him in the second round, though Keith Law doesn't rate him in his Top 100. I'd say beauty is in the eye of the beholder with him, meaning he could go in the first round and he could fall to the third or fourth.

Will he sign?

He is a junior and if he slips enough, there's a chance he goes back to school. With his power, there is a good chance he could get more exposure with another season under his belt. Although, the questions about his contact skills could see his stock drop instead. It's a gamble, but I bet if he goes in the sandwich round to second round, he'll sign.

Bibliography after the jump

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Things to munch on while we wait for another road game...

1) Oswalt is a Ranger - Well, the Roy Oswalt race finally has a winner, with Old No. 44 signing with the Texas Rangers. Should we be annoyed by this?

Sort of. He's obviously enjoyed living in Texas, or just wanted to play for a winner, but there's a chance he'll be on the other side of the games next season when Houston moves to the American League West. That means he'll be teeing it up against Houston for a division rivalry, which cuts a little deeper than when he was just with Philadelphia, no?

What's more, can't you see him sticking around in Houston if the Astros had maintained their levels of goodness for the past few years? Wouldn't he have been an all-time Astro if they had kept winning?

I can't blame him for finding the situation that he wanted and getting paid a hefty sum for it. I hope things work out for him there and he moves on far, far away from the AL West by next season.

As for the other ramifications, it's intriguing for Wandy's trade value, just because it eliminates a variable. Will the other teams in on Oswalt turn to trade options quickly, or will they wait until after the draft and closer to July? How will Roy Halladay's injury affect the Phillies?

I guess what I'm saying is that Roy's decision to sign with Texas raises more questions than it does answers. Anyone who wants to take a shot at them, feel free to do so in the comments...

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With no Astros game tonight, let's talk about the minor leagues...

Nashville Sounds at Oklahoma City RedHawks, 7:05 p.m.

Brian Baker vs. Dallas Keuchel

Corpus Christi Hooks at Arkansas Travelers, 7:10 p.m.

Jarred Cosart vs. Eddie McKiernan

Lancaster JetHawks at Lake Elsinore Storm, 9:05 p.m.

Jorge De Leon vs. Donn Roach

Augusta Greenjackets at Lexington Legends, 6:05 p.m.

Clayton Blackburn vs. Mike Foltynewicz

Summary

It's hard to believe that last summer, Diekroeger was considered one of the guys in the mix to take 1-1 honors this season. Now? He'll be lucky to go in the sandwich round.

Part of that is the backlash against the Stanford hitting approach. Scouts dislike the Stanford style, claiming that all the Cardinal hitters turn into flat, line drive machines without any power. That was the knock on Jason Castro and why people thought Houston overdrafted Castro in 2008.

Well, maybe not the ONLY reason. Still, it's an accepted enough scouting truth that Baseball America wrote a pretty significant feature on why it's not true. You should really read through that before you think about guys like Diekroeger and then look at what Austin Wilson, another highly drafted high schooler, is doing there with that same hitting approach (hint: he's mashing).

The shortstop was drafted in the second round three years ago by Tampa Bay and really looked like he was breaking out in his freshman season. The problem is he's seen declines in his average and power every single season since then.

Diekroeger also has questions around his defense, and most people accept he'll have to move to second or third eventually. If he can't hit, though, it won't matter where he plays. A point in his favor is that he's cut down significantly on his errors this season, but as you know, errors don't necessarily show fielding ability.

You can see on the video below that he has a wide base on his swing and has a toe tap that makes his base even wider. All of that means his power is limited, unless he's crazy strong like Jeff Bagwell. Even Baggy got more hip rotation than Diekroeger seems to get here.

Those are fixable things, but you really have to have faith in his other skills standing up to take him now. I imagine Diekroeger will not go much higher than he did three seasons ago and may even drop a bit.

Floor

If there's an upside here, it's that his floor is relatively high. Most of the names of those Stanford hitters to be drafted in recent seasons at least make the majors. They don't necessarily become stars, but you can expect him to be some sort of backup on the lines of Matt Downs.

Ceiling

If he sticks at shortstop and regains some of his hitting prowess from early in his career, Diekroeger could be a very solid starter at that position for a number of years, with above average power and hit tools. That's valuable, and you could see Diekroeger going the way of Jed Lowrie, another Stanford shortstop, in the best-case scenarios.

Projected Draft Round

Looks like he'll be picked as a sandwich rounder at the best and a second or third rounder at the worst.

Will he sign?

He's a junior, and another year in college could technically help his stock, but with the way things have slipped, I'd imagine he'll sign to avoid slipping any further.

Bibliography after the jump

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Summary

One of the best power/speed combinations in this draft, Barnes reminds me a bit of one George Springer. He's a polished college hitter who still may need some work in pro ball before coming up to the majors. He's got good speed and power potential, but may not hit a ton of homers at the next level.

You could also call him the best college hitter out there, if you're looking at the total package and not just the hit tool.

Why doesn't Barnes get more attention, then? Well, it's partly because Texas Tech was pretty bad in baseball this season. They didn't even make the Big 12 tournament and didn't earn a spot in the NCAA regionals. That means Barnes won't have any more of a showcase to build his draft stock.

Barnes has a nice, even swing from the right side, but that toe tap at the beginning means he might have problems with his timing down the road. I haven't seen many people concerned about it who have scouted him, but it's hurt the perception of J.D. Martinez, who's swing is more pronounced in its quirkiness.

No, Barnes just has three or four above-average skills. The question that will determine his ultimate value is where he ends up position-wise. If he can't stick in center, he's destined for left field because of a below-average throwing arm.

That puts him in Eric Byrnes territory, as a speedy outfielder with a bit of power who may not look like your normal left fielder. Nick Swisher may also be a good comp, though Barnes has much better speed and baserunning skills.

Floor

Moving to left field, Barnes doesn't have nearly as much value and that limits his floor. It'd be hard for him to play as a bench outfielder with only one spot in his repertoire. I think that lowers his floor a bit, but he probably has a higher floor than most of the high school outfielders. If his power holds up, he'll be able to bounce around the league for a while.

Ceiling

Ideally, Barnes could show off his power with a lower batting average and 15+ steals per season in center field. That makes him a value, but even if he moves off the position, you could see him putting up a few seasons like Eric Byrnes did in Arizona.

Projected Draft Round

Right now, he's a sandwich round pick, but could sneak into the back end of the first round if a team falls in love. Doesn't he seem like a guy Billy Beane would love? Like a new-wave Nick Swisher?

Will he sign?

He's a junior, so he has the capability to go back to school, but I imagine if he's drafted before the second round, he'll sign.

Bibliography after the jump

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Let's talk about the team that fortunately can't lose any heartbreakers today...

1) Mocking the draft - Let's talk about two of the latest mock drafts to hit the interwebs. One is slightly older, from last Friday at Baseball America, while the other was the community mock draft over at Minor League Ball.

BA's has Houston tabbing Mark Appel (what else is new?) while Sickels' crew goes with Byron Buxton as the guy who all the scouts love. The Minor League Ball draft goes three rounds deep, giving Houston a high school lefty along with some third base depth and a toolsy college outfielder to the mix.

It's a nice compromise of sorts an gives Houston some insurance in case Buxton takes longer to reach the majors than normal high school top picks. In the BA mock, the supplemental round isn't there, but you could see Houston going the other way and taking a high upside arm at No. 41.

I'm going to publicly wonder about these rumors of a discord between the scouts and the higher-ups and what that means. Buxton is certainly a player that Bobby Heck and his team would want, but what if Jeff Luhnow just doesn't like him. What if the old regime is feeling put off by the new one and is grumbling to friends in the industry, which comes out as a reluctance to take Buxton?

We won't know for sure what happens until next Monday, but watch for how it turns out. If Appel really is the guy, we'll know something about the new front office. If it's Buxton, we'll know something else entirely. If it's someone else?

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Alex White

#6 / Pitcher / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-3

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 29, 1988

Jordan Lyles

#41 / Pitcher / Houston Astros

Height: 6-4

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 19, 1990

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Summary

Almora is like the anti-Joey Gallo. For that matter, he's got a lot going for him that even Byron Buxton doesn't. If I had to pick, Almora may be my favorite high school position player in the draft.

He's polished, playing against high-level international competition for years now. In that, he's got quite a bit of an edge on Buxton, who's never really faced that kind of competition, either in high school or on the workout circuit.

Still, there's a reason why Almora isn't being talked about for that top pick, and it's because he's above average at a bunch of different things without having one elite skill. That could make him an All-Star center fielder, but may not get him considered at 1-1.

I think that'd be somewhat of a mistake. Almora has less questions than any of the top picks. He's got a good swing that will play in the pros, good speed that will give him value in a big Minute Maid Park outfield and on the bases and enough power to be effective at the plate.

Can you imagine an outfield of him and Springer? Excellent defense plus power and speed? Sign me up.

I know Buxton is the most popular pick, since he's got the chance to add more power and, thus, gets more projection love. If you can draft a guy who will hit 40 homers or a guy who's going to hit 20, most teams will go for the chance at 40. I don't blame them either, because power is the most expensive skill to buy on the open market.

Still, I think passing on a guy like Almora could be passing up the surest bet of all the high school guys.

Floor

Even if his power doesn't develop, he's polished enough defensively right now to be a fifth outfielder and provide some late-game help in the field. If the power doesn't come, he's still got a chance to be a good starter in center, and if he grows out of the position, his arm can hold up in right. May have the highest floor of any high schooler in this draft.

Ceiling

Think Andruw Jones here. A great fielder in center who posesses good pop and can hit for a great average. In the right season, that could put him in the MVP mix, but more likely he'll be a perennial All-Star.

Projected Draft Round

Should be a top 10 pick.

Will he sign?

Miami is a pretty good program and could be a draw for him. I'd expect, though, if he goes in the top handful of picks that he'll sign for a princely sum.

College commitment: University of Miami (FL)

Bibliography after the jump

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Talking Astros as we hope you all have a great and safe Memorial Day...

1) Luhnow wins another trade - What a win for the new GM, turning a minor league free agent that functioned as depth in the minors into a 20-year old catcher who's got plenty of on-base skills and even a little power.

That'd be Jobduan Morales, who has put up a pretty good line in short season ball playing as a teenager after being drafted in the ninth round in 2009. He doesn't appear to have a great defensive reputation, but he's young and that can take some time for a catcher to develop.

No, the real steal here is finding a guy with patience and a little power behind the plate. He immediately jumps up as possibly the best or second-best catching prospect in the system, though we'll have to see what he can do in ful season ball before making any big pronouncements. Ben Heath and Chris Wallace kind of burned us on judging by numbers at the lower levels.

And to think, Luhnow got him for essentially a spare part. Was Ruggiano getting called up any time soon? Probably not. Even if he did, it's not like Ruggiano would have made a huge impact on this team. He was hitting well for six weeks in Triple-A and the Astros capitalized on that.

Hands down, best part of this trade, though, is that Houston didn't get a reliever back. I was tired of all those trades for relievers...

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Summary

Power plays. Teams will take a chance on a guy with raw power all the time. It doesn't matter what position he plays or if he is a slug on the basepaths.

Power plays.

That's the biggest plus with a guy like Joey Gallo, who we're profiling as the first commenter recommended profile this season. Gallo is impressive in batting practice and absolutely can destroy mistakes. He just can't catch up to good fastballs and generally is a mistake hitter.

Plus, he's got a cannon for an arm at third base, but his huge frame as a high schooler means he may grow out of the spot in coming seasons. If that happens, he'll need to move across the diamond to first. But, that shouldn't be a problem given his raw power potential.

Why isn't a guy like Gallo being discussed for the top overall pick if power is premium and he's got that in spades? Well, he can't really make contact. Non-prospect type can get him out. He's struggled this season against high school pitching. How might he do in the pros?

There's also the weird thing with his pitching side. Apparently, Gallo loves hitting so much, he doesn't tell scouts when he's pitching, so they can't see him. Wait, what?? Don't you do everything you can to get drafted no matter what? Can you really just do something like that?

I guess you can if you can also hit 450 foot bombs.

I like Gallo's potential and I'm super on board with John Klima's Dave Kingman comp. It works better than Adam Dunn, I think, given Dunn had some more success with his batting average early in his career. Kingman? Not so much, and I think Gallo is headed down that same path.

I'd be very worried with him at 1-1, but if he's there in the supplemental round? Still would be wary. Just am not feeling this guy at all.

Floor

The obvious downside here comes if Gallo doesn't make it as a hitter and has to switch to the mound. At that point, he's lost developmental time and may not have any secondary stuff to do well there. Though he's got intriguing arm strength, he could be a bust of epic proportions if neither side pans out.

Ceiling

Dream on the power, which is elite and means he could hit 30+ home runs as a pro. If he fine-tunes his contact skills, he could easily put up the kind of season that Ryan Howard has recently, getting .250/.330/.580 with 45 homers and a high place in the MVP race. If he sticks at third, he's got even more value.

Projected Draft Round

Right now, he's going in the late first round, but I doubt he slips past the supplemental round.

Will he sign?

Sounds like he really likes what he saw at LSU, but I can't imagine that's enough to pull him away if he goes in the first round. Gallo doesn't sound like the projectable type who could help himself by going to college. I imagine he'll sign because of that, unless he slips pretty far.

College commitment: LSU

Bibliography after the jump

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Summary

Stripling has never been the most heralded pitcher on his own staff, but he's continued to pitch like it. For two years now, he's performed like an ace, though, including pitching the 14th no-hitter in Aggie history against San Diego State.

So, why hasn't he gotten more attention? Why is Michael Wacha the one to watch? Because Stripling pitches better than his stuff right now and he's doing it against lesser competition in an instantly offensive-starved environment from these new BBCOR bats.

There is good news, though. He's got clean mechanics, showing that Power L that we love to see. He doesn't land violently and is in a pretty good position to field once he finishes his delivery. From the video I've seen, there don't seem to be any obvious red flags based on how he's throwing.

Again, why doesn't that help him? His stuff is just so-so. He's got a fastball that sits 88-91 with a nice curve and a developing change. Do you know who that reminds me of? Jordan Lyles. I could see Stripling having similar success in the lower minors before he slowed down higher up.

Any pitcher who's going to be drafted in the fifth round or later will be compared to Tropeano, but I think Stripling can do a little something with his upside. Part of that is he's not been a starter for long, meaning he's got room to grow and develop a better feel for his secondary stuff. He has good control right now and I could see him following the Jake Buchanan route through the minors.

Will he ever equal throwing a no-hitter on the same day he graduated? Probably not, but I do think he's got some potential here, even if it's less than his higher-profile teammates.

Floor

There isn't a great track record of Texas A&M pitchers coming out of college right now, since most of them have come down with arm injuries. That's the same knock that Wayne Graham developed for years, but I'm not sure how relevant it is. If Stripling can avoid the injury bug, he's got a chance to be a reliever with his curve as his main pitch.

Ceiling

He's shown this season with Texas A&M that he can pitch as a workhorse starter, and I think that's the upside here. He's a third or fourth starter with his current fastball velocity who may flash potential from time to time if his offspeed stuff is working well.

Projected Draft Round

Looks like most draft projections have him going somewhere around the fifth or sixth rounds, possibly falling to eighth.

Will he sign?

Stripling was taken in the ninth round last season and did not sign. He doesn't have much of a choice this time around, since he's a senior and can't go back into the draft.

Bibliography after the jump

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Summary

Is baseball changing before our eyes?

That happens all the time, and the game is just coming out of one of its highest offensive periods ever. But, more and more, it seems like we're swinging back into a pitching-dominated age. It won't be as bad as the '60's, but offense may be on the decline for the immediate future.

Why is that relevant here? Because I think it gives Tyler Naquin more value than he might have had 10 years ago. Naquin is a flat-out hitter. Every single scouting report you read on him raves about hit ability to hit, and it started last season during the College Classic at Minute Maid Park. Naquin is basically Raph Rhymes with a much, much better swing. It's quiet without much pre-swing movement and he simply explodes into the ball with quick wrists.

So why isn't Naquin touted as the best college hitter in this draft, even if he's got "the best hit tool around?" It's all about power and defensive position. See, Naquin doesn't really hit for much power at all, even though he flashes it in batting practice and has a little more uppercut to his swing than you'd anticipate for a guy with his reputation.

He's also got a cannon for an arm in right field, grading out as the best outfield arm of all the college players. Add in a good baserunning skill set (he's stolen 21 of 26 this season) and Naquin has a solid set of skills right now that can help a team. He just may not be able to play center, as scouts don't love his route to fly balls and he just hasn't had much chance to play out there.

Even with his plus skills in right, without more power potential, Naquin won't be looked on too favorably. That's why he's being mocked in the second half of the first round.

But, if we ask the question above, does Naquin look more favorable in that new power-starved pitching era? I'm not going to hang a Tony Gwynn comparison on him, but if you look at the Hall of Famer's career, he never hit for much power and stole 40 bases or more just twice in his career. He also played right field even though he didn't have even average power.

If Naquin can hit .300 consistently with a ton of doubles and 20-30 steals a year, plus you get plus defense in right, can't a team live with less power in right? Certainly, the 2012 Astros could.

Naquin won't last until the supplemental round, but he'd be a fantastic pick for the Astros there, as it seems they may be a team that values what he can do and doesn't worry about what he can't.

Floor

A pure hitter who can work as a defensive replacement is a great backup outfielder and bat off the bench. That's his floor, I think, as he has a great shot at making the majors right now.

Ceiling

That depends on his position. If he sticks in center field and can consistently hit over .300, he's an All-Star. If he's in right...well, he may not be an All-Star unless he hits .350. Still think he can be a valuable player there for a long time.

Projected Draft Round

Right now, he's going in the late first round, but I could imagine a team like Oakland falling in love with him and popping him early.

Will he sign?

Naquin is a junior, but I don't see him improving his stock much to warrant a return to school.

Bibliography after the jump

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On Friday, I talked about how pivotal Saturday's game would be, since Friday was a wash with Kershaw on the mound and Sunday was in Houston's favor because the Dodgers were throwing Chris Capuano.

Turns out, I was right and wrong all at the same time. Houston dominated the Dodgers Friday and were shut down by Capuano Sunday, meaning the pivotal game in the series was Saturday's walkoff loss. Norris nor Happ pitched especially deep into the games and Jerry Hairston just went crazy on Sunday.

What does this mean for Houston? That they're still a bad road team. Still, they can salvage this road trip with a split in Colorado. Maybe a sweep of the doubleheader on Monday will get things righted.

One thing Houston shouldn't worry much about is Jose Altuve. I'll talk more about him in the Three Things on Monday, but Escorpion had a huge weekend. He hit three doubles and a triple with three runs scored in three games. For a guy who's not supposed to have any power, he sure is showing a bunch of it, isn't he?

His afternoon was about the only bright spot here, as Houston was just clueless against Capuano. Houston just can't win any road series this season, but this one gave them another close call. You have to expect that the luck will change as this season rolls on and as these young guys get the experience to turn things around.

On another note, it was somewhat bittersweet that the final game Houston would play against the Dodgers wasn't on TV. It hasn't come up in a while, but these two used to have a great rivalry, with Tommy Lasorda being absolutely despised in Houston. Now, things have cooled off, but it's a shame Houston is missing out on another little piece of its history.

Here's an interesting thing. One of the best all-around players in Houston Astros history collected just 47 bbWAR in 11 seasons for Houston. That's right, Cesar Cedeno averaged just about 4 WAR per season with Houston, which means he was an average All-Star during that time, per the stats.

Except that he was much, much better than that. Cedeno was one of the best players in the league, combining power with speed and great defense. Why doesn't that show up in his WAR totals?

It does and it doesn't. Only three Astros position players have more total WAR than Cedeno, but his seems low, considering Jeff Bagwell has over 30 more WAR despite playing a less important position. What's going on here?

Well, it goes back to how Baseball Reference calculates their version of Wins Above Replacement. For the fielding component, BBRef uses Total Zone rating, which tries to make comparisons for how many plays a guy "should" have made without having data specifically for that.

That leaves Cedeno at a loss, since he never posted one defensive WAR total above 1.0 in a single season. To put that in perspective, Chris Young led the National League in defensive WAR last season at 2.6. Michael Bourn currently leads the league with 1.3 dWAR through a quarter of the season.

By every measure of him at the time, Cedeno played excellent outfield defense. He won five Gold Gloves in his career. That's not necessarily a great way to judge defensive skill, but beside the Gold Gloves, he had a great defensive reputation. Just look at this takeaway from an interesting article in The Hardball Times:

A sabermetrician will look at Cesar Cedeno, and will see him utterly differently thanks to park and league adjustments and a willingness to cast aside language barriers, off-the-field problems, and preconceived notions of his "potential." That sabermetrician will see a remarkable player who could beat you in innumerable ways. Cedeno could beat you with a single, a double, a home run. He could beat you by stealing a base, beat you by drawing a walk. He could beat you with his stellar outfield play too, with a catch or a throw.

And, yet, we see a very average player in his WAR totals. Let's sub in a guy like Andruw Jones' defensive WAR for Cedeno's. Jones compiled 24 dWAR in his career in the outfield. That's an average of just under 1.5 dWAR per season, which if we give Cedeno over his 11 seasons in Houston, would raise his bbWAR up to 65 instead of 47.

At 65 career WAR, Cedeno jumps to second place on the all-time just, ahead of Craig Biggio and just behind Bagwell. I may not have seen him play, but that feels right to me.

Summary

Remember that 25 inning game Texas had a few years back? How Austin Wood threw 169 pitches in it? Well, a freshman named Austin Dicharry also pitched that game, finishing out with 5 2/3 innings for the Longhorns. As good as he was that season (8-2, 2.28 ERA, 59 Ks, 59 1/3 IP), he basically didn't pitch again until this year.That's a lost season in 2010 and 2011 due to shoulder tendinitis.

Dicharry is healthy now, but still didn't pitch nearly as well as he did in his freshman season. His delivery isn't bad, though he's got a more violent arm action than some of the pitchers we've seen. Of course, the only video I could find was him from 2009, so things might have changed since then.

This season, Dicharry pitched, but not really in high leverage situations. He had a record of 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 20 innings, but he also gave up a .321 batting average against and eight of the 25 hits he gave up were doubles. Still, he had 20 Ks in those 20 innings with just five walks, so there is something there.

The problem with Dicharry is his potential. Will he ever pitch like he did as a freshman again? He has shown better control and the same strikeout ability, but will he be over the shoulder problems? Will he be able to pitch in the pros?

I guess you could make an argument either way. Maybe he's the rare college pitcher who wasn't overused before being drafted and can be healthy in the pros. After all, Wood came back from a few years off in the Tigers system to make it all the way to Triple-A. Maybe Dicharry can have a similar spate of success in a professional organization. It'll take a team who's confident they can keep him healthy and take the time to develop him, but I wouldn't be surprised with someone taking a chance on him.

Floor

The injuries mean he may never be totally back. You've seen some of those college relievers never make it past Low A ball and Dicharry may go that route. Otherwise, he could do just what he's doing now, being a bullpen guy who doesn't necessarily pitch in high-pressure situations.

Ceiling

Here's the neat thing. His ceiling could be pretty good. Right now, you don't expect him to be anything more than a big league reliever who may move pretty quickly. But, given time and good health, couldn't he transition into a starting role? If he goes low enough in the draft, a team could take a flier on him and see what he does. The upside is probably low enough to mean he won't be drafted before the late rounds, but there's a chance it could increase after a year or two

Projected Draft Round

I doubt he gets picked before the 20th round and may not get picked at all.

Will he sign?

As a senior, he'll sign unless he wants to do something besides playing pro ball.

Bibliography after the jump

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Summary

The angular lefty is our first Longhorn profiled in a class that figures to be smaller than usual by Texas drafting standards. Still, there is plenty to like about Milner from a makeup standpoint. The question is, what is his upside and where will he fit on a big league team?

At 6-foot-2 and 165 pounds, Milner doesn't appear to have the body type to fill out and be an innings eater. He was 155 in high school, so he hasn't exactly put on a bunch of weight at Texas, but he does have a pretty explosive fastball that can touch 94 while sitting in the low 90s.

He also throws an interesting slurve that's got a nice horizontal and vertical break, but mainly works off the fastball. He also is an inverted w guy from what I can tell in the video, in addition to being a dip and drive pitcher. Not good signs for his continued arm success, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't make a nice bullpen option.

With that velocity from the left side, he'd make a great lefty who can transcend the LOOGY label and be used for an entire inning. Heck, he could also be used in a long relief type role, much like he did at Texas. This guy has a great attitude, it seems, and was an underrated part of this Texas staff.

Floor

There's the rub, as the injury risk here outweighs his possible high floor as a polished college arm. But, at the very least, he could be a LOOGY if he stays healthy. If he doesn't add any life to his fastball, he can be counted on to be tough on lefties for his career.

Ceiling

Well, the possibilities here are not quite endless, but they are varied. Who was the last real "long relief" prospect who was developed on his own accord? Mostly, those guys are lapsed starters who get thrown into a role as a bullpen innings eater. But, I think Milner has the chance to be quite versatile, pitching multiple innings and getting up and down a lineup no matter if he's facing righties or lefties. In short, he'd never play for Brad Mills, because he'd drive Millsy crazy with his non-matchupiness.

Projected Draft Round

Don't expect him to go highly, but I could see somewhere in the first ten rounds. It depends on if a team falls in love with the idea of him being a starter consistently.

Will he sign?

Haven't seen any signs either way, but I can't imagine him improving his stock with another year on campus. Probably signs.

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Summary

In looking at the Rice outfielders I was planning on profiling, it seemed like overkill. We were going to do all three, while none of them may be drafted that highly. Instead, let's go with a Texas pitcher who's coming out of Division II and may turn out to be a quick mover through a system.

Why is that? Because Stephen Johnson is a reliever who throws gas. He's been clocked up to 101 with his four-seamer and it seems he works off that pitch with his breaking stuff. There's some violence to his delivery, which means a move to the bullpen may be in his best interest long-term.

Look at the videos below, though. That weird hitch thing with his elbow just before he extends is just...weird. He recovers well and moves into what appears to be the "Power T" look for his delivery. That's a good sign for his future health and may be how he's avoided injuries after experiencing some elbow discomfort in high school.

If he really can throw 100 and do it consistently out of the bullpen, he can have a pretty long career even if he doesn't develop other stuff. Look at what Kyle Farnsworth has done. It's not assured, but it means he's more than worth a draft pick, maybe as high as the second round.

Floor

Look back at Houston's drafts the past few years and circle the relievers they took who stayed in the bullpen in the pros. How many of them make it two years in the system? How many get released pretty quickly? Drafting a guy as a reliever out of college is just a recipe for a relatively low floor. They just don't always pan out and usually do that quickly.

Ceiling

It depends on how consistent his stuff can be. If he can throw that hard and develop a good slurve as his secondary pitch, Johnson looks like a closer-type bullpen guy. At worst, he'd be a dominating setup man who can use that fastball to blow past the lesser lights in the lineup.

Projected Draft Round

Right now, Baseball America has him going in the second round. He's currently sitting at No. 63 on BA's prospect list and is No. 61 on Keith Law's Top 100.

Will he sign?

I think so, but he is a junior, so a team would have to really convince him to sign. Given that he's a small-school guy and has some concerns over his delivery, I think it's in his best interest to sign now and make hay before he gets hurt.

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Summary

Ah, the siren song of the workout circuit. Last summer, Mitchell Traver blew people away with his summer workouts, showing 92-95 with his fastball with a good change a hard breaking slider and a giant frame. Traver is 6-foot-7 and 238 pounds.

Unfortunately, he hasn't lived up to what he showed in the offseason, with his fastball falling from 88-92 in most of his starts this season. He's still been good and has been working out more than he did in the past, which helped him drop his body fat quite a bit.

Traver is a pretty classic tall-and-fall guy, with an easy delivery that speeds up towards the end. He's got a high leg kick out of the windup and comes across his body with his leg but not his arm. There are some concerns about his arm motion, but I didn't see anything glaring in the videos below.

There are also questions about his control. Though his high school numbers don't quite bear it out, he's got problems locating the fastball at times and that leads to him being a bit inconsistent. The question then becomes, where does his velocity sit? He's a big kid and not likely to "fill out" much more. He might grow some, but is a thick-bodied type right now, so there's not as much room for projection as with other players at the top of this draft.

He's still likely to be the first Texas high school pitcher drafted, but it may not come early enough to get him out of a commitment to TCU.

Floor

His size and repertoire make him a great candidate for the bullpen down the road if he can't stick in the rotation. That fastball has flashed 96 at times, and may stay there more consistently if he's working out of the 'pen. However, as with most high school pitchers, his floor is lower due to the greater chance for injury.

Ceiling

I like the potential of a guy like this to be an innings eater down the road. He may not be able to be a top-of-the-rotation starter without better stuff than he's flashed to this point, but there's always a chance for those to develop more in the minors. In that, he reminds me more of guys like Jordan Lyles and Ross Seaton than anything.

Projected Draft Round

Third or fourth round seems to be the consensus

Will he sign?

Not unless he goes higher than that. With the new money rules, a team would have to dramatically overspend on him to get him away from a TCU scholarship. I could see him really raising his stock if he goes and pitches for the Horned Frogs for a couple of seasons.

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Summary

No Division I collegiate player has hit .500 in a season since 1991. That's why LSU outfielder Raph Rhymes got so much attention when he threatened to do just that this season. At .469 right now, he's still threatening to finish with the highest batting average since 2006.

So, why is Rhymes not more highly regarded as a draft prospect? Look through the list of the past batting champions in Division I and you'll quickly see why. Successful major leaguers are few and far between on that list that basically just includes Rickie Weeks and Buster Posey.

Still, you can't overlook Rhymes hit skills, as even the Omaha World-Herald did a story on the Tiger outfielder earlier this month. We talk about batting average, but if you look at the Div. 1 hits leaders, you get a much better view of successful MLB players.

Guys like Buster Posey, Dustin Ackley, David Murphy, Brett Gardner, Khalil Greene, Adam Kennedy, Paul LoDuca and Mark Kotsay have all led the nation in hits in the past 20 years. While not many of those guys became stars, they all became pretty decent MLB players, which suggests that category may be a better judge.

Right now, Rhymes is eight hits off the national lead, so he needs a good run through the College World Series to take that title. Luckily, his Tigers look poised to do just that. That also means a forward-thinking club who appreciates collegiate players may pop him earlier than the toolsy teams might.

Rhymes isn't without his quirks, though. His swing reminds me of J.D. Martinez, with a big leg kick and a lot of pre-swing movement. It's also a pretty flat swing, good for line drives but not tailor-made for power production. He's also had Tommy John surgery on his elbow, so his arm may not be the strongest in the world either.

Basically, the reason to draft Rhymes is his bat and possibly his makeup. Read some of the stories about him, about how he gave up his scholarship this season to help the team out, about how he came back from Tommy John, how he came back from getting cut in 2008. This guy can overcome the adversity he'll see in the pros and I'd bet on him gutting his way to the majors eventually, too.

Floor

As I said above, the Division I hit leader has more often than not been at least a major leaguer, so Rhymes may have a pretty high floor. The most telling part will be his transition to pro ball. If he comes in and hits pretty well right off the bat, he should move quickly through the minors.

Ceiling

His value here reminds me a little of Texas A&M outfielder Tyler Naquin, where his ceiling isn't very high unless he can play center. Otherwise, you can expect a pretty good hit tool with not as much power as a corner guy usually shows. J.B. Shuck may be a good comp here.

Projected Draft Round

Baseball America has him listed as a fifth or sixth round talent. That sounds about right, though it's worth mentioning that last year's hit champ Justin Howard got popped in the second round.

Will he sign?

He's a junior, so there is a chance he goes back to school if he falls too far in the draft. Plus, with the new draft rules, he can't get paid the same lower down in the draft. But, he might just want to get his pro career going, so it'll be an interesting negotiations.

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Jose Lima has been gone for two years, but he feels just as vivid as ever in memory. Lima Time won't be topped any time soon. It was special, it was one of a kind and it was highly, highly enjoyable.

Jose Lima was one of those players that you love if they play for your team and hate if they play for the other guys. Jose Valverde got a little bit of that with his mound antics, but nothing compared to Lima, who talked into his glove like a crazy person after bad pitches and merengue'd his way off the mound after big strikeouts.

Personality can make a ballplayer memorable much longer than his performance can. Guys who are flashy endear themselves to fans, especially when they do it like Lima did. He always signed autographs, he was in those hilarous Casa Ole commercials that I still sing to this day and he backed up his talk.

In 1999, Jose Lima guaranteed he'd win 20 games. He won 21 and made the All-Star team. That season, I remember chuckling with my dad when I read Lima's quotes in the notes section of that day's Chronicle. I mean, Lima wasn't even the best pitcher on that team. That'd probably be a split between Mike Hampton and Shane Reynolds, right?

And yet, it was Lima who won the games and made baseball fun while he did it.

Lima won 46 games in his Astros career and 37 of those came in 1998 and 1999. He didn't play a terribly long time with the team, nor did he win any major awards. But, I still found myself rooting for him with the Dodgers and Royals all the same. He was the first player I really followed closely after he left Houston, because Lima Time was too much fun not to check in on every now and then.

Fitting, then, that he gets a History post before Houston takes on the Dodgers this weekend.

Summary

Though there were bigger names in the Rice rotation this season, it was the grandson of T.K. Reckling (aka the guy Rice's stadium is named after), who stole the show and became the staff ace.

Reckling flashed stuff all season, with his fastball velocity going anywhere from 86-93 MPH. He threw both a four-seam and a two-seam fastball with a good curveball and a new changeup he's using more and more. Four pitches make a pretty solid starter and Reckling showed that this season.

In 79 innings over 13 starts, Reckling has struck out 92 batters and given up 32 walks. He's got a .178 batting average against with just eight extra-base hits and just one home run. He has two shutouts on the season and has an 8-2 record.

That's quite a drop in walks for Reckling, who had 48 in 78 innings last season with a comparable number of strikeouts. The drop in his senior season is a big reason why he's going to go much higher than the 22nd round he got tabbed in last season.

Consistency has been a problem for Reckling, as he's struggled with both fastball velocity and control of the pitch at times this season. There are some reports of him flashing great stuff with that knockout curve complemented by his emerging changeup. With those pitches and a good two-seamer, he's got pretty good upside.

Floor

The good news with Reckling is his floor as a reliever is pretty good. He's got both a great breaking ball and a good change to support a move to the bullpen if needed. Plus, pitching out of the 'pen may let his fastball velocity rise a tick. Still, his age means he's going to have to move quickly if he wants his floor to be higher.

Ceiling

Look for him to be a decent back of the rotation starter in the majors. His strikeout rate is legitimate, but his lack of control could lead to high pitch counts and low inning totals. He might have a good career as a lockdown closer if things break right, too, but I'd think his biggest upside is as a starter.

Projected Draft Round

Neither Keith Law nor Baseball America has Reckling in their respective Top 100 lists. He is listed at No. 179 for BA, which means they expect him to be drafted around Round 6. That's about where I have Reckling pegged, going somewhere in the Top 10 rounds and maybe sneaking into the Top 5. With a developing change and good velocity, he's a big school version of a guy like Nick Tropeano.

Will he sign?

The fourth-year senior is guaranteed to sign if he intends to play professionally.

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Summary

Hey, why are we profiling a Division II guy? He doesn't exactly whow up on any prospect lists, right? Well, like we did last year, we're taking one player off the Central Missouri Mules and profiling them. In case you don't remember, that's the college team new owner Jim Crane played for and still has a presence through.

That doesn't necessarily mean one of these guy will get drafted, but the one that I'm most intrigued in is left-handed starter Lee Stoppelman. The senior enjoyed a breakout performance for the Mules this season, earning Pitcher of the Year honors from the Mid America Intercollegiate Athletic Association. He did that by going 8-0 with a 1.25 ERA, a .215 batting average against and 75 strikeouts in 65 innings.

What's more impressive is that Stoppelman only had nine walks over that stretch. The lanky lefty works to both sides of the plate effectively and really shut down the power production of his opposing hitters. Stoppelman only gave up nine doubles all season and those were the only extra-base hits he allowed.

I've got no scouting reports on how hard he throws or what he throws, but judging from the video, there's a lot to like. I'd bet he's not a hard thrower, but even if he can manage an mid to upper 80s fastball, he'd be tough. That's because of his arm slot, which you can see from the video below the jump comes in almost sidearm. That makes his slider break in quite a bit (from what I could barely tell on the video) and probably helps contribute to his effectiveness.

It's an easy delivery that's not particularly violent or possessing many moving parts, which suggests he's at a slightly lower injury risk. All in all, he's an intriguing small-school guy who could provide some value down the road.

Floor

I don't know that a low floor is necessarily because of his injury risk (like many pitchers), but is more because of his velocity. You've seen how hard it has been for Dallas Keuchel to break through to the majors, despite posting good numbers in the minors. Keuchel's velocity will keep him down and may even be preventing him from transitioning into a LOOGY role. That's what I think Stoppelman's floor looks like, a career minor leaguer.

Ceiling

However, because of his funky delivery, there's a chance Stoppelman could have a nice career. Considering his relative lack of innings pitched over the past few seasons, his arm should be good to go for a while. I'd suggest his ceiling right now is that of a Chad Bradford-esque reliever. If he shows he can be durable and throw innings in the minors, we might up that to (dare I say) late-life Jamie Moyer territory, though every soft-tossing lefty gets compared to Moyer. I like the reliever comp better.

Projected Draft Round

I'm guessing if he gets drafted at all, Stoppelman will go in the final 10 rounds of the draft. Think what Houston did with Lamar starter Blake Ford last season, tabbing him in 44th round last year and having him as an arm in short-season ball. Since the draft ends at Round 40 this season, Stoppelman's draft chances should be downgraded accordingly.

Will he sign?

As a fourth-year senior, the only way he doesn't sign is if he doesn't really want to play pro baseball.

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Summary

We're continuing a theme with guys I've actually seen in person. This time, it's University of Houston catcher John Cannon, who played for the Brazos Valley Bombers, a collegiate wooden bat team in the Texas Collegiate League based in Bryan.

I saw Cannon in about two or three games over the course of two summers and came away reasonably impressed. None of the players looked good in this particular wooden bat league, so I can't speak to that part of his game, but he did look pretty good defensively.

That's where I think he'll gain most of his draft value. Guys like Cannon, who have started for years at the college level and have some experience hitting in wood leagues can come in and be an organizational depth guy in the minors for a few seasons.

If Cannon's bat develops, he can move more quickly than that. Houston has seen that with another UH catcher, Chris Wallace. I'm not sure Cannon will have the same power potential as The Good Wallace, but he does have value.

Floor

Well, organizational depth is important, right? There's a chance a college guy like never makes it to even Double-A, but there's still value in that.

Ceiling

As I said, this will all depend on his bat. If he can hit passably, Cannon has a shot to be a big-league backup at worst. Think of Humberto Quintero, but maybe not as good a hitter.

Projected Draft Round

I'd bet he gets drafted somewhere after the 20th round.

Will he sign?

As a senior, it figures that Cannon will sign if he intends to play professionally.

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Summary

I shouldn't even be writing this one. It's probably not worth your time. There are few people who have even heard of Brett Brown outside Southeast Texas. But, this is one area where my day job and this job will cross.

Brett Brown is a strikeout machine. The first time I saw him, it was in a playoff game, in his first-ever varsity start in the first round of the playoffs. Brown struck out 17, mixing a decent fastball in with an absolutely brutal slider he was able to throw consistently down and away.

It absolutely ate hitters up. Coming into this season, though, Brown didn't even know if he'd be a starter for the Bulldogs. He thought he might be sent back to his closer role, which he inhabited for much of the previous season.

Brown stuck in the rotation, and preceded to strike out 164 batters in 13 starts this season. I don't have the exact inning count for him, but I think it was around 85 IP for the season. That's pretty good.

The secret for Brown is that slider, which he picked up halfway through his junior season and refined last year. With it, he was able to pick and choose where to throw his 12-6 curve that is also a good pitch. He's got good control of his fastball and understands how to pitch, working hitters and not giving them anything decent to swing at.

In short, he's got that pitcher's thing instead of being just a thrower. I like all those things about him, and I love his potential down the road.

The problem is Brown isn't tall. If I had to guess, I'd say he's about 5-foot-11, but that might be generous. If you know anything at all about baseball scouting, you can guess why's not on anyone's lists. Add in his late start to his career and there's a good chance he'll go to college before popping on anyone's radar.

I could see him pitching at Lamar, doing well there and then getting picked in a middle round in three years. But, man, with a guy can consistently miss bats, why wait? Why not take a chance on him now?

Floor

High school arms, especially ones who throw sliders, will not last. You're looking at a pretty significant injury risk. Plus, Brown's sort of a max-effort thrower on his motion, so you've got another injury strike against him. Given all that, I bet he's got a pretty low floor and there's a chance he never makes it past Low A ball. Colton Pitkin only barely did.

Ceiling

Here's the other problem. With his skillset, I see his best value down the road to be in the bullpen. He could definitely be a late-inning arm with that slider-curve-fastball combo. He doesn't throw in the mid-90's, but I don't think you limit him to that. Let him grow some and gain some strength. He's certainly got the mentality to do it.

Projected Draft Round

I will be surprised if he gets tabbed at all, but it wouldn't shock me for a team to take a flier somewhere around Round 30-40.

Will he sign?

That's the one thing I haven't talked to Brown about. If I had to guess, I bet he stays in school, which lowers his chances of being drafted even lower. If he can finagle a decent bonus, though? One that makes up for that baseball scholarship he'd be losing? Why not sign?

College Commitment: Lamar

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