I've been struggling with the title of this, but long story short, is Adam Jones contract, $85.5 over 6 years, a good value for the O's? Grant Brisbee last week in an post about Angel Pagan mentioned the dangers of signings and extentions this early into the season:

Now is not the time. If you pay now, you're including a hot-month premium -- that's going to cost a couple million, at least -- and that's never a good idea.

Did the O's overpay, or was it wise to lock up Adam Jones before even going into the final year of arbitration?

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The A's have been carried offensively in the early part of the season by contributions from various new acquisitions; first Yoenis Cespedes (before the DL stint), some sparks from Jonny Gomes, Brandon Inge (also before his DL stint), and now, Josh Reddick. In the month of May, he's been producing: 0.439 wOBA and 6 HR. Currently, if you look at the Fangraphs May leaderboards, he's comparable to Andre Ethier (0.434 wOBA) and Matt Holliday (0.451 wOBA). Not too shabby of company to be in.

As the A's go into their 40th game, and close to the quarter mark of the season. how does Josh Reddick compare to other OF options the A's could have possibly gone after this offseason?

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It certainly has been surprising that Jake Peavy has seemed to have found his 2007-self, the one who pitched 223.1 and a career best 2.24 FIP (not to mention, this was his Cy Young-winning season). Last Thursday, David Schoenfield proclaimed Peavy as the best pitcher in baseball, and while only 7 starts into the season he's laying claim to the title of the best pitcher in the AL. Always hard to judge this early into the season, is this just a hot start, or is he set to drop off sometime soon?

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Well covered early into the season is the struggles of the newly highest paid player in baseball, Albert Pujols. Although going into his age 32 season, we know there's some sort of decline coming. Angels GM Jerry Dipoto knows this, even calling out this issue amidst the signing:

Albert has spent many years operating at peak, and if we want to call a decline going from superhuman to just great, I don't think we've seen the last great days of Albert Pujols...

No one expected this. It's easy to look at HR decline, but what are some of the underlying components behind this. OPS through yesterday is obviously down, but his career wOBA has been below his 0.427 average since 2010. What's wrong this year?

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Happy Friday! This has been a crazy week for baseball news. Harper's on a tear along with giving us tons of video to watch, there's Weaver no-no, Chipper's late inning walk-off HR, the injury news of the Panda's hand today, and sadly, Mo Rivera's torn ACL. Along with the end of the first month of the season, the Rookie of the Months were awarded, respectively to the Diamondbacks SP Wade Miley and the Rangers SP Yu Darvish. Now if it wasn't for Miley's 1.60 FIP and absurd 0.107 opponent BABIP and Darvish's 3.19 FIP most likely his 4 wins, it's likely these other candidates would have won. Were there other's that were deserving?

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As a follow-up to last week's early season team starts, since it's now the first of May, we take a look at individual hot starts and how they compared to last year? The Nationals were voted by our readers to be the most likely to remain hot. Do some of these players start hot, or do you think this is sustainable? Aside from focussing on just Matt Kemp and how he's going beast mode on the NL, what unlikely names are surprising to see on this list?

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I've been hesitant to make any assumptions or do any infographics until possibly the all-star break due to sample size issues, but I figured I'd take a look at how some unlikely teams on hot starts have gotten there. It looks like it's mainly due to pitching. Taking a look at opponent BABIP, FIP, and WHIP for pitching and wRC+, how has these teams ranked in their respective leagues, and do these stats support their surprising starts?

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Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

Last in the series, we look at the San Francisco Giants. We have a team ranked 26th overall by John Sickels with no A-rated prospects, and 7 B-rated prospects. Their system is ranked similar in all three rankings we looked at; 25th in Kevin Goldstein rankings and 26th in Keith Law's 2012 organizational rankings. Law notes:

The Giants don't go much over MLB's recommended draft bonuses, never seem to acquire any prospects in trades and haven't had success on the international front yet. Their amateur staff has done a great job finding value in later rounds without going over budget, including Brandon Belt and Heath Hembree.

The Giants are heavy favorites in their division coming into the season, but with defending NL West champs the Diamondbacks ready to cement their position at the top of the division, are the Giants window closing or can they stay strong for years to come?

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Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

29th in the series, we look at the Colorado Rockies. We have a team ranked 13th overall by John Sickels with 2 A-rated prospects, and 7 B-rated prospects. Their system is ranked similar in all three rankings we looked at; 14th in Kevin Goldstein rankings and 13th in Keith Law's 2012 organizational rankings. Law system slightly underrated:

This is an underrated system, maybe even here by me. I like systems in which the prospects in the No. 8-12 range are just as interesting (if not as high-upside or high-probability) as the prospects in the No. 1-4 range, and the Rockies' lack of a complex-league team can make some of their youngest prospects look less advanced than they are when they jump right to the Pioneer League.

In a division now lead by the Giants and Diamondbacks, can the Rockies, with their strong offense make a push and open their window to win the NL West?

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Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

28th in the series, we look at the Los Angeles Dodgers. We have a team ranked 22th overall by John Sickels with no A-rated prospects, but 10 B-rated prospects. Their system varies across all three rankings we looked at; 19th in Kevin Goldstein rankings and 12th in Keith Law's 2012 organizational rankings. With his more generous ranking, Law sees some optimism about the system:

If pitching wins championships, the Dodgers are in pretty good shape going forward, as their system is loaded with power arms but is relatively light on position players.

The news of the new ownership is long overdue and should signal a new renewed commitment to winning. Hopefully with some magic in mind, when is the window opening for the Dodgers again in a tough NL West?

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Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

27th in the series (we're almost through all the teams!), we look at the Milwaukee Brewers. We have a team ranked 28th overall by John Sickels with no A-rated prospects and 7 B-rated prospects. They rank 28th in Kevin Goldstein rankings and 23rd in Keith Law's 2012 organizational rankings. Law does have a bit of optimism about the system:

A strong 2011 draft class with a few breakout performers from within the system gets them out of the bottom spot. The Brewers are in better position to reload the parent club after their 2012 free agents leave next winter.

The core of this team hasn't changed, but losing 1B Prince Fielder this season is certainly a notable loss. Back in December, I had took a look at this in my Replacing Runs series and noted that the projected wRC lost from Fielder (41.3) can be replaced by a combination of 3B Aramis Ramirez (20.5 wRC) and 1B Mat Gamel (15.7 wRC). Obviously, no one player can replace Fielder for the Brewers, but hopefully this combo will do.

With this in mind, does the window continue to stay open for the Brewers, especially since division rivals and World Series champs, wire in similar dire straits?

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Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

26th in the series (we're almost through all the teams!), we look at the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. We have a team ranked 18th overall by John Sickels with 1 A-rated prospect and 7 B-rated prospects. Their one A prospect, OF Mike Trout is top-3 this year, but asides from him, the system is a little thin. They rank 23rd in Kevin Goldstein rankings and 15th in Keith Law's 2012 organizational rankings.

As we start looking at these perennial playoff contending teams rather than just the smaller payroll teams I've covered before, the question about the window changes. The Angels made huge moves this offseason signing the top two free agents in Pujols and Wilson. Will this help propel them over the Rangers and open a window the window for them indefinitely?

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Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

25th in the series (we're almost through all the teams!), we look at the Texas Rangers. We have a team ranked 3rd overall by John Sickels with 1 A-rated prospect and 13 B-rated prospects. There's incredible depth, slightly leaning more on pitching than hitting. They rank 6th in Kevin Goldstein rankings and 7th in Keith Law's 2012 organizational rankings. Sickels rating is the only one that included P Yu Darvish as a prospect. Here's what Law has to say about their system and Darvish being excluded:

The Rangers have ranked highly the past few years -- including No. 1 once -- because of depth and ceiling, but they're now more about the latter than the former. (Note that I don't consider Yu Darvish or any player with Nippon Professional Baseball experience a "prospect" for the purpose of this ranking or the top 100.)

As we start looking at these perennial playoff contending teams rather than just the smaller payroll teams I've covered before, the question about the window changes. You're probably asking the question, why would this matter since the Rangers made it to the World Series two years in a row? Do they stay strong in the same division as the Angels and prospect-heavy Athletics and Mariners?

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Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

24th in the series (we're almost through all the teams!), we look at the Cincinnati Reds. We have a team ranked 21st overall by John Sickels with 1 A-rated prospect and 5 B-rated prospects. Of course, they would have been ranked higher before trading away a number of their top prospects in return for P Mat Latos. They rank 18th in Kevin Goldstein rankings and 19th in Keith Law's 2012 organizational rankings. Law believes that this was a potential top-10 system before the trade. For those of you who were skeptics about the trade, Goldstein brought up a good point in his rankings:

Using prospects to acquire talent is one of the primary reasons for having prospects in the first place.

After acquiring Latos and closer Ryan Madson this offseason, are the Reds window finally opening in the NL Central?

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A few days ago, I had the pleasure to make it to Mesa, AZ for the inaugural SABR Analytics Conference. Aside from being an observer and unofficial representative of Beyond the Box Score, it was really great to see so many great minds in one place, including SB Nation's very own Rob Neyer, author and economist J.C. Bradbury and many many others. SABR did a pretty good job at documenting the panels, so I'll just fill some bullet points.

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Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

23rd in the series, we look at the St Louis Cardinals. We have a team ranked 5th overall by John Sickels, they have 1 A-rated prospects and 10 B-rated prospects. They rank 3rd in Kevin Goldstein rankings and 4th in Keith Law's 2012 organizational rankings. An interesting thing to note is their depth, Law notes:

They've drafted very well in the past few years, which has to be heartening to Astros fans, as Houston just hired Jeff Luhnow, who oversaw the Cards' recent drafts, as GM. St. Louis also has done an excellent job of developing the players it's drafted. I really like how the Cards are set up to contend continuously during the next five years.

As we start looking at these perennial playoff contending teams rather than just the smaller payroll teams I've covered before, the question about the window changes. You're probably asking the question, why would this matter since the Cardinals had just won the World Series? I ask, does the future Cardinals squad continue to contend in the NL Central and does their window stay open for at least a few more years?

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Be sure to check out Beyond the Box Score, too! -- Kurt

As seen on Beyond the Box Score

Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

Continue reading this post »

Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

22nd in the series, we look at the Detroit Tigers. We have a team ranked 23rd overall by John Sickels, they have 1 A-rated prospects and 5 B-rated prospects. They rank 24th in Keith Law's 2012 organizational rankings, and 27th in Kevin Goldstein rankings. Critical of their system, Goldstein notes:

Among the shallowest systems in the game, the back-end of their Top 11 wouldn't make some Top 20s.

As we start looking at these perrenial playoff contending teams rather than just the smaller payroll teams I've covered before, the question about the window changes. With the Fielder signing this offseason and following Verlander's MVP/Cy Young 2011 season, how long does the Tigers window stay open?

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