[GameCenter - Ice Tracker - Game Summary - Event Summary - Faceoff Summary - Play-by-Play - Home TOI - Visitor TOI - Shift Charts - Head-to-Head - Fenwick/Corsi - Zone Starts - Fenwick Timeline]

There's no denying the Capitals have faced their share of adversity this season. Between injuries to arguably their two most important players, a coaching change that probably should have been made over the summer, and, for whatever reason, blind luck seeming to hurt the team far more than it helped, it's almost as if the team has been cursed. This homestand that concluded tonight was in large part no exception, with the Caps picking up just three points in the first four games.

All that said, tonight the Capitals were as close to needing a win as a team can be at this point in the season; against a mediocre-at-best Tampa Bay team, they were able to pull one out in a manner that was, in some ways, reminiscent of the magic the team has shown us over the last few years...and keep their playoff dreams alive for at least a few more days.

Ten more notes on the game:

• Interesting to see new Lightning defenseman Keith Aulie try to intimidate Caps' winger Jason Chimera in the middle of the first period, especially in the wake of Aulie's fight with Ottawa's Colin Greening on Tuesday. Apparently the former Maple isn't aware that Brian Burke didn't follow him to Tampa.
• One quick note on Keith Aucoin's goal - according to the stat sheet, Aucoin gives up about nine inches and 35 pounds to Tampa defenseman Victor Hedman, which demonstrates two things: that a big defenseman isn't a panacea for front of the net scoring chances, and that there's really no excuse for not getting there if you're a forward.
• What Joe Beninati called a "crafty veteran move" - Eric Brewer's blatant trip of Jay Beagle in front of the Tampa Bay net - I'd call a pretty strong indication the guy's "give a damn" level isn't particularly high. Brewer may be a vet and may have an 'A' on his sweater, but he looked checked out for this game...at the very least.
• Speaking of bad penalties, what was Mathieu Perreault thinking on his second period high-sticking infraction? Minimal benefit, and it couldn't have been more obvious. Even if he doesn't get the stick up there, it's an obvious hook or interference call.
• Lots of talk about Steven Stamkos' chase for his fiftieth goal tonight, which is exciting because watching such a talented young player is always fun. And just as depressing, because I remember thinking how lucky the Caps were to get a guy like Alex Ovechkin with the number one overall pick rather than having to settle like the Lightning.
• And speaking of things I feel silly about from a few years ago, remember when, coming out of the lockout, there was an emphasis on getting rid of the holding and interference? I feel stupid for expecting that to last, at least to a small degree. Apparently it's impossible to play defense in today's NHL without systematically pushing guys away from the puck on dump-ins.
• Call me a softie, but I almost always like seeing a guy in his first NHL game - after all, how many of us ever get to achieve our life-long dream? So, congratulations to Dustin Tokarski, who has a generally solid game, even if he looked a little nervy in the first period. But then, who could blame him?
• On the same topic, and without taking anything away from Tokarski, it's easier to have a solid game when you have basically an entire period off. Good on the Caps for outshooting the Bolts 16-3 after the second period, but getting only three on net during the middle frame is both unacceptable and unexplainable.
• Based on what we've seen this season, expect Mike Green to be hit with a suspension; based on common sense, he deserves it. It's hard to think of a recent hit the fits the definition of "kill shot" any better than that one.
• Not matter what happens with the rest of this season, we should all be able to take comfort in the bright futures of Marcus Johansson and Dmitry Orlov, both of whom were crucial in tonight's win. If this season has taught us anything, it's for this team to truly be successful, depth is going to be key, and in today's NHL, the best way to get depth is by developing your own players.

It's funny how expectations change as the season progresses - in October, we probably all would have assumed an early March win over a team clearly out of the playoff race was inconsequential, rolled our eyes and asked to be awakened at the start of the playoffs.

But the reality is, right now, every win matters; every point counts because the Caps still have a battle ahead of them to even make it in to the postseason. Let's hope the team plays accordingly on Saturday.

Continue reading this post »

[GameCenter - Ice Tracker - Game Summary - Event Summary - Faceoff Summary - Play-by-Play - Home TOI - Visitor TOI - Shift Charts - Head-to-Head - Fenwick/Corsi - Zone Starts]

Five games into an 82-game season, there's not a lot that can be said with a ton of authority given the paucity of observation points. Rather, October for the NHL fan is more about previews; glimpses of where the season might be headed, be it for individual players, your favorite team, or the League.

Tonight the Capitals offered those of us clamoring for answers an at-times tantalizing look at just how good they could be if everything comes together, using their speed, skill, and even tenacious play to establish their dominance over another team that has also played pretty well in the early going.  There's still a long, long way for this team to go, but at least tonight they looked like they were heading in the right direction.

Ten more notes on the game:

• As a general rule, I try to stay away from the off-ice side of things.  Nonetheless, it was kind of nice to hear that Matt Bradley felt he owed Alexander Semin an apology after his offseason comments and that he felt Semin deserved to receive the apology in person - and, it's worth mentioning, it seemed a lot more in line with the personality Bradley showed Caps fans during his six seasons in Washington.
• Matt Hendricks' dogged pursuit of the puck in neutral zone while the Capitals were shorthanded after Roman Hamrlik's first period interference penalty was one of those plays that was both important and easy to miss.  It may not have looked like all that much, but anyone who has played the game can tell you that seeing a teammate work like that serves as inspiration to everyone on the bench.
• Speaking of Hendricks, his little curl-and-drag move after coming out of the penalty box late in the second was one of those moments that reminds you that even NHL depth players are extraordinarily skilled - and that's part of what makes being a fan of this sport so much fun.
• The scouting report on Jacob Markstrom says shoot often and from anywhere. Which, without taking anything away from Marcus Johansson's strong performance, is unlikely to change given the first goal surrendered tonight.
• It has been interesting to see Jason Chimera look so strong this season, creating on offense, hitting with authority, and using his speed to harangue opponents in all three ends after how lost he looked for a lot of last year.  The question is: Has Chimera completely bounced back, or is this a result of him being put in the perfect position to succeed as a complimentary player on a solid checking line?
• While fully acknowledging that he's carrying an unsustainably high shooting percentage, is at an age when develop can be hard to pin down, was a highly regarded prospect, and has been getting a little lucky, it's getting awfully hard to argue Marcus Johansson's message-sending benching didn't have a pretty significant positive influence.
• Roman Hamrlik has not only looked mediocre so far this year, often he has looked like an outright liability.  It's tempting to say that the system in Montreal must have hid him, but it's hard to believe any system could hide play like this.
• I generally pride myself on writing thoughtful, insightful, analytics-driven pieces on hockey.  That said, my reaction to Alexander Semin's third-period goal was a simple, "Holy s---. That was impressive." And I can't of any better way to describe the play.
• And speaking Semin, as nice as his goal was, his backcheck on Panthers defenseman Ed Jovanovski just a few moments earlier was in the same league - and probably more important for a number of reasons.
• A year ago, Boudreau made a conscious effort to try to get Alex Ovechkin away from not-quite-perennial-Norris-finalist Mike Weaver. Tonight Ovechkin was limited to a secondary assist and just two shots on goal. Sometimes effectiveness is more about the way two guys' playing styles contrast one another and less about pure talent, and meanwhile we're left waiting for Ovie's 2011 breakout game.

Tonight's result is certainly encouraging, especially right before a measuring stick game in Philly, and here's hoping it was more about the team continuing to come together and less about the quality of their opponent.

Continue reading this post »

When it comes to nitty-gritty hockey discussions, ones on zone starts are among the most interesting because they touch on just about every aspect of the game. From on-ice strategy, to what goes on behind the bench, to front office management and statistical analysis, how to treat zone starts provides ample discussion for just about any hardcore hockey fan.  

Part of what makes the discussion so interesting is the difficulty on getting a handle on what impact zones starts have on individual player performance or what conclusions we can draw from the data, the later of which we've looked at here at Japers' Rink in the past.

On Wednesday, The Post's Capitals Insider blog ran another look at zone starts - specifically how they impact scoring as it pertains to the Capitals - by noted local stat-head Neil Greenberg. Greenberg notes that, as we might expect, offensive zone starts and even-strength point production are positively correlated. He also notes that using zone starts to predict even strength points yields an R-Squared value of .70, which means that "offensive-zone starts explain 70.3 percent of the variation in even-strength points scored," and predicts "an extra offensive start per game could lead to 9-10 more points scored over the course of an 82-game season." While this may be true from a strictly mathematical standpoint (and don't worry if your eyes glazed over on that last sentence - we'll explain), we would have to be careful about drawing such a conclusion when it comes to what's happened - or is likely to happen - on the ice.

Continue reading this post »

Of the roster moves the Capitals have made over the last couple of weeks, the signing of veteran defenseman Roman Hamrlik may be the least sexy. It didn't involve any off-ice drama, any high draft picks. or the return of a former captain, and it didn't even address the team's most obvious need. Despite that, Hamrlik, who's a versatile player with more than 1,400 combined NHL regular season and playoff games, should have an immediate and significant impact on the Capitals blue line - but where will he do it? How is he best utilized? Who should he play with? That's what we thought we'd look at, using the following assumptions:

• Restricted free agent Karl Alzner is re-signed.
• Tom Poti is unable to play to start the season, if at all.
• There are no other roster moves that change the composition of the team's defense corps.

Continue reading this post »

From Alzner to Wideman, we're taking a look at and grading (please read the criteria below) the 2010-11 season for every player who laced 'em up for the Caps for a significant number of games during the campaign, with an eye towards 2011-12. Next up, Mike Knuble.

Mike Knuble

#22 / Right Wing / Washington Capitals

Height: 6-3

Weight: 223

Born: Jul 04, 1972

NHL Seasons: 14

Contract Status: Cap hit of $2,000,000, signed through 2011-12

Key Stat: With seven powerplay goals, Mike Knuble was tied with Alex Ovechkin for the team lead in that category.

Interesting Stat: Knuble's 11.8% regular season shooting percentage was his lowest since 2003-04, and 7.4 percentage points lower than 2009-10.

The Good: When Knuble signed with the Capitals in the summer of 2009, it was clear he was being brought in for one reason: to bring a big body, net-crashing presence to the first line and the powerplay, and using that framework, his 2010-11 season was largely a successful one.  Knuble tied for the team lead in powerplay goals, scored more often than anyone else who saw regular powerplay time, and, despite the powerplay struggling for the majority of the season, actually increased his goals per minute from the 2009-10 season.  Knuble was also a goal-scoring threat at even strength, trailing only Ovechkin and Alexander Semin in goals per minute.

Knuble wasn't just a goal-scorer, however. 1:23 of his 17:48 of nightly ice time came with the Capitals down a man, and in shorthanded situations, Knuble was generally effective, with the Caps yielding only 4.48 goals per sixty minutes he was on the ice, and faring better than Boyd Gordon, Nicklas Backstrom, and Brooks Laich in terms of Corsi (albeit against pretty average competition).  Additionally, his 2.5:1 giveaway to takeaway ratio was among the best on the team - and not bad for a guy who isn't exactly known for his smooth hands or puckhandling ability.

The Bad: Goal scoring is arguably the most important skill in the NHL, and the fact Knuble's pretty good at it makes him a valuable offensive player.  That said, he is a bit of a one trick pony in the offensive zone.  His playmaking ability isn't that strong, as his 16 assists with attest to and he doesn't have the speed to be a major factor on the forecheck or to create a ton of space.  In short, though Knuble can finish off goal scoring opportunities, he is reliant on others to create them and can't be asked to carry the load for any period of time.

In addition, Knuble's playoffs were a bit of a disappointment.  While we would be remiss to ignore the fact that he was playing through injury for much of the postseason, only two points (both goals) in six games is a poor showing for a player counted on for offense, and especially a veteran whose style of play would seem to mesh well with playoff hockey.

The Vote: Rate Knuble below on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season - if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1

The Discussion: He might be relatively low mileage, but at 39 by opening night, Knuble's at the point where it's reasonable for people to ask how much he has in the tank - and whether he can go a full season without wearing down.  What should the Capitals expect out Knuble for next season?  Should they do anything to try and keep him fresh for the spring, or just go into the season full steam ahead and play it by ear?  Finally, what would it take for you to rate Knuble a '10' next season?

From Alzner to Wideman, we're taking a look at and grading (please read the criteria below) the 2010-11 season for every player who laced 'em up for the Caps for a significant number of games during the campaign, with an eye towards 2011-12. Next up, Matt Hendricks.

Matt Hendricks

#26 / Center/Wing / Washington Capitals

Height: 6-0

Weight: 215

Born: Jun 17, 1981

NHL Seasons: 2 (and part of one additional one)

Contract Status: $575,000 cap hit in '10-'11; signed through 2012-13 at a cap hit of $825,000

Key Stat: Hendricks' 169 hits were second among Capitals this season, bested by only Alex Ovechkin.

Interesting Stat: Hendricks led the Capitals with 14 fights - four more than Matt Bradley, and only six shy of the team's 2009-10 total.

The Good: The statistics above do a good job of summarizing what Hendricks meant to the Capitals this season, doing what a grizzled pundit might call "the little things" or "the dirty work" and the cynic would call "the stuff he needs to do to keep his job."  Either way, Hendricks did it frequently, generally did it pretty well, and, just as importantly, did it consistently.  As is the case with depth forwards, not much of what Hendricks did for the team on a nightly basis was all that sexy, but it was effective, from forechecking aggressively yet intelligently to being solid on draws when asked to play center.

Of course, that doesn't mean Hendricks wasn't effective in the more skilled parts of the game.  Twenty-five points is nothing to sneeze at for a player who sees fewer than twelve minutes a night, especially without much powerplay time; in fact, in five-on-five situations only Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, and Nicklas Backstrom had more points per minute than Hendricks, who also managed to put 113 shots on goal despite his limited playing time.

The Bad: Hendricks may have done well in some of the less-heralded parts of the game, but he wasn't a dominant force in them.  He hit often, and generally solidly, but laid few bone-rattling hits, his 53% faceoff percentage was good-but-not-great, and while he fought reasonably well, he's not enough of a heavyweight to serve as significant deterrent.  

Hendricks also performed worse than what you might look for out of a grind-line winger defensively.  Though his overall Corsi rating was positive, his on-ice Corsi was significantly lower than his off-ice Corsi, his goals against per minute was amongst the worst on the team, and he ended only 45% of his shifts in the other team's offensive zone, despite starting there 52% of the time.  No one of those numbers is in and of itself damning, but taken together they paint a pretty clear picture: when Hendricks was on the ice, the Capitals were more likely that outshot than when other forwards were on the ice, they were more likely to give up a goal, and play was more likely to be in their end.  A guy can hit and fight all he wants.  The best fourth liners are the guys who can keep the puck in the other team's end and away from their own netminder.

Finally, Hendricks took 1.1 penalties per sixty minutes, second only behind Semin, putting his team shorthanded more often than a guy who plays limited minutes against mediocre competition should.  That 1.1 was high enough to more than mitigate his solid 0.9 penalties drawn per sixty minutes and put him in the negative, not a place you want to be if you're a wing, especially a bottom-six one.

The Vote: Rate Hendricks below on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season - if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.

The Discussion: In what role is Hendricks best utilized?  Center or wing?  As twelfth forward?  A thirteenth forward?  Or does he deserve more ice time?  Finally, what do you expect from Hendricks in 2011-12, and what would it take for you to rate him a '10'?

Valuation of a hockey player is a funny thing.  It's arguably the single most important facet when it comes to building a team, yet no one knows exactly how to do it.  Of course, you can make the obvious calls - Alex Ovechkin is better than Boyd Gordon, John Carlson is better than John Erskine, that kind of thing - but exactly how much one should weigh intangibles, how to divorce perferences from production, the impact of your team's system versus another team's system, how to project player ability and performance, and, finally, how you put a numerical value on a player given the inherent uncertaintly of a moving salary cap, future injuries, and  prospect development is an imperfect science. 

Happiness is also a  funny thing.  While it seems like the basic tenets should be fairly simple, having them in abundance doesn't necessarily correlate with a higher level, and even as people advance in their careers, earn more money, and start families, happiness is far from assured.  In some circles it's thought that this is due to happiness not being a solely a function of someone's stock in life, but how that stock relates to their expectations.  That is, a person who expected to make $30,000 a year and finds themselves making $35,000 may be happier with his salary than his neighbor who makes $50,000 but expects to be making $60,000.

When I hear people talk about trading Mike Green, I can't help but wonder if the same thing is happening; if the historically great three-season stretch of offense he put up from 2007 to 2010 has raised people's expectations to the point they can't see just how productive the 25-year-old blueline was, even this past season.

It's not that I don't understand or share the desire to shake this team up, because I do.  It's also not that I think Mike Green is untouchable, because I don't.  It's that when I try and take the emotional aspect out, I find it difficult to believe the Washington Capitals will be a better hockey team without Mike Green because I don't see a realistic way to replace his on-ice production.

Continue reading this post »

From Alzner to Wideman, we're taking a look at and grading (please read the criteria below) the 2010-11 season for every player who laced 'em up for the Caps for a significant number of games during the campaign, with an eye towards 2011-12. Next up, Eric Fehr.

Eric Fehr

#16 / Right Wing / Washington Capitals

Height: 6-4

Weight: 212

NHL Seasons: 3 full, 3 partial

Contract Status: $2,200,000 cap hit, RFA after 2011-12

2009-10 Rink Wrap: 7.50

2008-09 Rink Wrap: 5.37

Key Stat: Fehr's 8.3% shooting percentage was the lowest of his three full NHL seasons, and 43% lower than it was in 2009-10.

Interesting Stat: Fehr had 18 points (nine goals and nine assists) in 30 Washington wins and just two points (one goal and one assist) in 22 Caps losses.

The Good: Fehr's boxcar stats are decidedly mediocre, but his rate-based numbers were a bit better.  His 0.77 goals per sixty minutes were fourth on the team behind Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, and Mike Knuble, beating out guys like Nicklas Backstrom, Brooks Laich, and Marcus Johansson.  The powerplay told a similar story, with only Knuble besting Fehr in goals per minute among forwards who saw regular time with the man advantage, and also gave the right winger a chance to tally some assist - only Nicklas Backstrom had a primary assist more often in 5-on-4 situations then Fehr.  Not too bad for a guy with middling quality of teammates ratings and who was used somewhat inconsistently.  Fehr's defensive play wasn't half bad either, with his goals against per minute being better than the Caps' median and an overall very solid 1.97.

Not to be forgotten was Fehr's Winter Classic performance - two goals (including the game winner), three shots,  a couple of blocks, and a major impact on the highest-profile game of the regular season, all in very Fehr-sian 9:55 of ice time.

The Bad: The aforementioned boxcar stats were way down for Fehr this season, and although the deeper statistics look a little better, the reality is that Fehr's numbers were down just about any way you slice it.  

Just take a look:

While it's worth noting that many of these numbers put Fehr in elite company in 2009-10 - he was seventh among NHL forwards in goals scored per minute, for example - and that some decline was probably inevitable, there's not really any avoiding the fact that Fehr had a much worse season from a statistical standpoint.

And that, of course, is just the regular season.  In the playoffs Fehr found himself a frequent spectator, playing in just five of the Capitals' nine postseason games, registering a lone point (pretty as it was), and finding himself called out by Bruce Boudreau for an ugly turnover  that led to a Tampa Bay goal in game three.

The Vote: Rate Fehr below on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season - if he had the best season that you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst season you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.

The Discussion:  Facing yet another offseason shoulder surgery, how do you see Fehr fitting into Washington's lineup next fall?  How do you think he would be best utilized and, just as importantly, how do you think Bruce Boudreau will utilize him?  Finally, what would it take for Fehr to get a '10' from you in 2011-12?

From Alzner to Wideman, we're taking a look at and grading (please read the criteria below) the 2010-11 season for every player who laced 'em up for the Caps for a significant number of games during the campaign, with an eye towards 2011-12. First up, Karl Alzner.

Karl Alzner

#27 / Defenseman / Washington Capitals

Height: 6-3

Weight: 206

Born: Sep 24, 1988

NHL Seasons:  1 (and parts of two others)

Contract Status: $1,675,000 in 2010-11; RFA this summer

'09-'10 Rink Wrap: 5.79 rating

'08-'09 Rink Wrap: 6.59 rating

Key Stat: Alzner was only on the ice for 1.90 goals against per sixty minutes at even strength during the regular season, fewer than any of the team's other defensemen.

Interesting Stat: Zdeno Chara and Kevin Bieksa were the only defenseman in the NHL whose goals against per sixty and quality of competition numbers were both better than Alzner's.

The Good: After a tantalizing glimpse of what he could do in the 2008-09 season and a perhaps somewhat disappointing 21 games with the big club in 2009-10, Alzner slid seamlessly into the lineup to start this past season and quickly established himself as the team's defensive workhorse. Not only did Alzner lead Caps' rearguards in goals against per minute, he did it playing against tougher opponents than any other Washington defender, while paired primarily with a rookie, in addition to regular penalty-killing responsibilities and without hurting his team by taking penalties.

Alzner's pre- and post-All-Star statistics are indicative of how the young blueliner progressed this season. In short, the "sexy" statistics - goals, shots, and hits - all decreased, while stats indicative of solid, steady player - blocked shots, assists per minute, and time on ice - increased. In this case, the statistics matched the eye test; as Alzner settled in at the NHL level he pressed less often and became confident in his showdown role and with playing steady, simple, minimal flair defense. 

The Bad: Alzner's offensive statistics this season were, to put it simply, paltry, with his twelve points placing him in a five-way tie for 133rd among defensemen.  To a certain extent, that is mitigated by the fact he saw very little powerplay time, but nonetheless a player with Alzner's smart, poise, and hands has the potential to contribute more than a dozen points over the course of an 82-game season.

On the defensive side, what stands out most is Alzner's penalty killing.  As mentioned above, he saw regular penalty killing time; the thing is, from a statistical standpoint, he just wasn't all that good at it.  His goal against per minute in 4-on-5 situations was second-worst (only Scott Hannan's was worse), despite the fact that he saw mediocre competition and played with decent enough teammates. Again, it almost feels like we're nitpicking, given Alzner's age, position, and experience level, but at the same time, if you're looking for areas where Alzner wasn't quite as strong or parts of his game he could improve, penalty killing is right there.

The Vote: Rate Alzner below on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season - if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.

The Discussion: Alzner's a free agent, albeit a restricted one, and the team's going to want to bring him back - but what's he worth (dollars and years), now and heading into the future?  Finally, what will it take for him to earn a 10 rating next year?

[GameCenter - Game Summary - Event Summary - Faceoff Summary - Corsi/Fenwick - Shift Charts - Head-to-Head - Zone Starts]

It wouldn't be unreasonable to think the Caps got worse than they deserved tonight, after watching the team go through an extended period of solid hockey bookended by some weak, disorganized play, and to a certain extent that's fair.  After all, Tampa Bay's game winner was a fortuitous bounce, the puck seemed to be doing its best to avoid Caps' sticks when it mattered most, and the team was unfortunately hurt by the inevitable rustiness you'd expect to see in the game's first few minutes when Sean Bergenheim converted less than three minutes into the game.

Yet to a large extent the Capitals did themselves in, reverting to ugly habits in during crunch time, with the turning point being their third-period powerplay that came as a result of holding the stick call on Brett Clark.  Sensing a chance to level the score, the Caps seemed to overeager, too ready to shoot rather than work the puck around; too confident in their ability to create by stickhandling around the opposition rather than making simple passes to create time and space.

From there it was all downhill as the team took increasingly low-percentage shots, got caught up at the Tampa Bay blue line, made passes to no one in particular, and became impatient trying to break the puck out of their own zone, in the process playing right into Guy Boucher's system - and as talented as the Capitals are, the difference between their ability and Tampa's isn't enough that they're going to succeed if they do exactly what Tampa wants them to.

Ten more notes on the game:

• First things first - best wishes to Simon Gagne, who suffered another concussion after a hit by Scott Hannan.  For all the talk in the NHL, and especially in the postseason, about guys being "enemies" or "combatants" and about teams "battling" or "going to war", it can be easy to forget that at the end of the day these are regular guys with wives, children, parents, and other loved ones - in other words, that the things that matter most to you and I matter most to them and that, at the end of the day, hockey is a game, a job, and a passion, but it's not a life.  Get well soon, Simon.
• Not to take anything away from Alexander Semin, whose forechecking and shots we both very good, or Marco Sturm, whose pressure made the play possible, but that weak clear up the middle by Brett Clark was something that'd get you yelled at in practice at the bantam level.  Veteran presence, indeed.
• I initially had no clue what the first period penalty call on Steve Downie was.  Of course, that doesn't mean it was a bad call - it just means it wasn't one I was expecting to see called, which is kind of a shame when you think about it.  After all, a player's responsibility for his actions doesn't go out the window after the whistle and if the league really wants to keep its players safe, they need to remember that.
• For all the Caps did right early on in this game once they got their legs under them, I'd have liked to see them get a little more aggressive around Dwayne Roloson's net, spending a little more time in the blue paint and even making a little contact with the Lightning netminder.  It's not like I want the Caps to go out and start running guys, but when you have a guy who flops, complains, and gets as worked up as Roloson does on a regular basis, it makes sense engage in at least a little gamesmanship
• Eric Fehr continued his strong playoff play with three shots, three hits, and two shot blocks in addition to his goal.  Not too shabby for a guy who started the playoffs in the press box.
• The Caps got a fair amount of praise during the game (well, at least through the first couple periods) for their patience in facing Guy Boucher's 1-3-1 system, but what was particularly impressive was the way the team managed to wait for opportunities without simply standing still and becoming stagnant, instead dropping forwards back to collect momentum and try to move the puck out.  Bruce Boudreau doesn't get a lot of press for his tactics, and perhaps rightly so, but he had a great system to match Boucher's, and it was effective when his team executed.
• Everyone knows Steve Yzerman has done a heck of a job as the Lightning's GM in the past year, but one of his more underrated acquisitions was Sean Bergenheim.  Of course Bergenheim, and the decision to grab him, aren't going to be underrated much longer if he keeps playing the way he did tonight.
• Nicklas Backstrom finished the game with 3:26 in powerplay time, behind Jason Arnott (4:32), Brooks Laich (4:38), and Marcus Johansson (3:40).  Now, granted, I don't have a Jack Adams Award, but that doesn't seem like the world's greatest personnel management to me.  Nicklas Backstrom has first powerplay unit talent, and he should be getting first powerplay unit ice time, both in terms of minutes and teammates, even when he's slumping.
• On the topic of pressing too hard, no one was more guilty than Alex Ovechkin, who had seven shot attempts blocked two only two on net and skated extra-long powerplay shifts on more than one occasion.
• Not exactly the most reliable statistic in the world, but the official Event Summary has the Caps with 2.4 giveaways for every takeaway.  The Lightning? 1.16.

In Versus' postgame interview with Steven Stamkos, the young center was asked what the key to the win was for Tampa Bay.  The first words out of his mouth were "We just stuck with our structure."  The Caps should listen up.  After all, if you know your enemy, you can beat your enemy.

Especially when you're the more talented team.

Continue reading this post »

[GameCenter - Game Summary - Event Summary - Faceoff Summary - Corsi/Fenwick - Shift Charts - Head-to-Head - Zone Starts]

The Capitals opened this season seemingly determined to "stay angry"; to show up every night, play hard, play smart, and be consistent.  Yet as the season has worn on, players have slumped, and injuries have popped up, we've seen far too little of far too many good things - passion, "compete level", smart hockey.  But a night like tonight offers hope that everything we'd hoped the Capitals could be is still possible, and that the boys just need to find a way to make sure it comes through.

Ten more notes on the game:

• Brooks Laich and Mike Knuble haven't had the most productive or consistent seasons of their respective careers, so it was nice to see them doing what they do best: Laich staying with a play and creating a goal for the team because of it, and Knuble taking (and dishing out) punishment in front of the net and creating a screen for a shooter.
• Refereeing is as much an art as a science, a fact which means different games will have different criteria for what constitutes a penalty - and that's perfectly fine, even when it means people are getting sent to the box for little love taps like the one Jason Chimera gave Mattias Ohlund.  Of course, if that was a two minute penalty, the Ohlund cross check that preceded it was worth a four game suspension.
• I'm still not sure I buy the theory that Alex Ovechkin's (relative) lack of production is no cause for concern, that he's going to be able to turn it on when it matters most, or that he's pacing himself for the postseason, but if it means he's going to play in the spring tonight like the way he did tonight, I don't care if he picks up another point all regular season.
• If Steve Downie played in a market that received a little more attention, I'm not sure Sean Avery would have such a stranglehold on that "most hated man in the NHL" title.
• Bruce Boudreau takes a lot of flak  - perhaps rightly so - for his relatively unimpressive track record as a strategist, but he had tonight's game down.  The Caps were patient, applied selective pressure, and made effective usage of long cross-ice dumps to mitigate Tampa Bay's transition game, one of the team's most dangerous weapons.
• Dwayne Roloson was awfully upset with Matt Hendricks there early in the first period. Presumably because Hendricks actually made decent enough contact to knock Roloson over, thus depriving the Lightning netminder of the opportunity to share his well-developed acting talents with the world.
• I generally don't like to speak in absolutes, but if you don't like watching Martin St. Louis play, you don't like hockey.
• All thing considered, Boudreau and the coaching staff did a pretty good job of keeping ice time spread out.  The numbers for some of the teams top players - Ovechkin (22:22), Mike Green (26:16), and John Carlson (26:49), as examples - were a little higher than you'd like to see on a night to night basis, but then the stakes for this game were a little higher too.
• It's just about the least interesting thing you'll see during an NHL game this side of the New Jersey Devils, but the way the Capitals were willing to play pitch-and-catch with the puck in their own end until Tampa upped the forecheck was a small sign of a maturing team because it wasn't long ago you'd expect to see the Caps throw caution to the wind and try and unwisely force something.
• The most encouraging aspect of tonight's game?  The way the Capitals were able to keep up the pressure and finish the Lightning off.  That's something this team has struggled with for way too long, and it's nice to see a sign that it's an area they might be taking a little more seriously.

Next up: a Winter Classic rematch with the Penguins, which will itself be a small test of just where the Caps are as a team, not only because it gives them a chance to play against an elite opponent, but because it will test the team's newfound discipline.

Continue reading this post »

[GameCenter - Game Summary - Event Summary - Faceoff Summary - Corsi/Fenwick - Shift Charts - Head-to-Head - Zone Starts]

In a perfect world - or even just one where what happens on the ice correlates directly to what the game looks like on paper - the Capitals would have come in and dominated the Islanders, their own injuries, inconsistencies, and other issues notwithstanding.  Of course, it didn't play out that way and although the Capitals came away with two points, we're still left wondering where the explosive offense and dominant team of the last couple seasons is...and when we'll see them again.

Ten more notes on the game:

• An Islander defenseman breaks his stick on a shot from the point and lets the Caps get the puck out of the New York zone, his partner losing his footing and falls down on the backcheck, Rick DiPietro's forced to come and play the puck, shanking it to the most dangerous goal scorer of the past five years...and the end result is a penalty against the Capitals?  Has any sequences summed up this season better than that one?
• So Kyle Okposo picked tonight's game against the Capitals to be his first one back from injury.  As a Caps fan, I find that rather unfortunate.  As a hockey fan, I'm thrilled.  And, if I were an Islanders fan, that 1:03 average shift length would be making me raise an eyebrow.
• Nice to see the Caps finish the game with 17 takeaways and eight giveaways.  Sure, some of it has to do with the skill level of the Islanders and the stats are very subjective, but if you're even close to 2:1, you're in great shape.
• Great job by Braden Holtby allowing just one goal in his first game back against NHL shooters (insert Islanders joke here).  It's awfully hard to fault him too much for New York's lone goal - it was a great shot by Grabner, and John Carlson let Grabner get the shot - and he came up big on several stops in the third.
• Jason Chimera's not a great option if you're looking for a guy to fill a spot on a line with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom and, realistically, he's not a great option for any NHL team's first line.  That said, you could do worse than a guy with that kind of speed who plays with that kind of effort, and it's nice the Capitals have someone they can turn to when they feel like they're in dire straits.
• At the risk of beating a dead horse and asking a rhetorical question, is there any reason for Mike Green to play more than ten minutes in the first period of a January game against the New York Islanders?
• Winning games in the NHL is hard and it doesn't get any easier when you have guys taking penalties after the whistle (like Nicklas Backstrom) or behind the other team's net (like Mathieu Perreault) when you're trying to protect a one-goal lead in the third period.
• On a more positive note, Perreault continued his sold work in the Corsi department, finishing as a plus-five, a number better by only Karl Alzner and Brooks Laich.
• On the other side were Jeff Schultz and Mike Green, who finished at -11 and -8, uh, respectively. The numbers look especially bad when you consider that only one other Capital (Nicklas Backstrom) had a negative rating, though the pair did finish with nine blocked shots.
• D.J. King played 3:25.  Jay Beagle, Mathieu Perreault, and Matt Hendricks played 12:40, 9:44, and 13:45.  Yep.

Another game, and another uneven effort from the team as a whole, as the team looks to be in throes of a Winter Classic hangover.  Here's hoping the team can snap out of it soon, because they're not so good they can get where they want to be if they let a large part of the season pass them by.

Continue reading this post »

[GameCenter - Game Summary - Event Summary - Faceoff Summary - Corsi/Fenwick - Shift Charts - Head-to-Head - Zone Starts]

In just four years, the Winter Classic has gone from an event celebrated primarily for its novelty and spectacle to an opportunity for the league to kick off the its national over-the-air broadcast schedule by featuring some of the game's best teams and matchups.  Never has that been the case so much as tonight, as the Capitals and Penguins met in a game that featured not only the game's two most recognizable players, but also an ongoing, heated rivalry that gave fans a game featuring a fight, seventy hits, multiple facewash-full scrums, and the teams turning their backs and leaving the ice, rather than shaking hands as past Winter Classic participants have done.

Yes, this rivalry is alive and well alright, and for one night on a national stage, the Capitals have the upper hand. In the long term (or even the short term, given that the teams meet again in early February) it might not end up meaning all that much, but that doesn't change that the Caps most important, most high-profile game of the 2010-11 season was also the one that was the most fun.

Ten more notes on the game:

• Early in the first period, Penguins' winger Craig Adams created a scoring opportunity for the Capitals by sending the puck softly up the boards to be picked off by Alex Ovechkin.  The reason?  He was expecting to be hit by Ovechkin and, as a result, bailed on the play.  That's the power of aggressive play and forwards who are willing to hit, and why forecheckers should be looking to initiate contact every time the puck is deep in the opposition's end.
• In this game, every once in a while you wind up getting an assist for a play where you don't really do much - a dump in that a teammate picks up, or a puck that bounces off your leg and a guy in front, something like that. And every once in a while you make a great play that should result in a goal and doesn't, like the pickoff and pass from Marcus Johansson to Jason Chimera.  Obviously that didn't yield anything of the scoresheet for MarJo, but it's a play that deserves to noted.
• Speaking of the benefits of hard forechecking, and speaking of Marcus Johansson making great plays, his play on the midhandle by Marc-Andre Fleury and the subsequent pass in front to Eric Fehr was a great example of heady play and a great example of why you put in effort on the forecheck.  I wouldn't necessarily bet on it, but I also wouldn't be surprised if we look back on this game as the time the rest of the league started to take note of Johansson.
• Two other Caps who might be getting a little more attention after tonight's game?  Karl Alzner and John Carlson, who played 24:25 and 26:28, respectively, and faced Sidney Crosby (and Evgeni Malkin) more often than any other Washington defensemen.  If the Caps can have those two go up against that kind of competition and succeed, Mike Green anchor another pair, and a third pairing comprised of two of the three of Tom Poti, Jeff Schultz, and Scott Hannan (with John Erskine on fill-in duty), they're in fantastic shape.
• The first period fight between John Erskine and Michael Rupp was exactly what you want to see from a hockey scrap: both guys were willing participants, it was evenly matched, neither guy dropped the gloves early to try and get an advantages, and it came during the natural flow of play.
• Of the 50 shots the Capitals attempted, 32 (64%) made it through to Marc-Andre Fleury.  Pittsburgh, on the other hand, attempted 66 shots and put 33 (50%) of them on net.
• "Um, excuse me, sir, but would you mind coming out from there?" is an awfully unusual reaction for a hockey team to have towards a guy who has just collided with their goalie and wound up in their net, and the fact Pittsburgh more or less had that reaction to Brooks Laich means that Laich is extraordinarily charming.  Or that he was in the net because a Pens player put him there and there's no way he should have been sent to the box on that play.  One or the other.
• It'd be hard to find a better example of a "good penalty" than John Erskine's second period hook on Maxime Talbot.
• One issue with taking the game outside that isn't discussed enough is how difficult it can be for a goalie to adjust to the change in perspective.  Sure, it's the same size rink, but having the stands so far back and empty space immediately outside the boards is more than enough to throw a player off, and that fact their neither Semyon Varlamov nor Marc-Andre Fleury allowed any soft goals is a testament to just how good NHL goalies really are.
• The Capital with the least ice time was Eric Fehr, who skated 9:55.  The Penguins, on the other hand, had three skates (Craig Adams, Michael Rupp, and Aaron Asham) who skated 8:13 or less.  In a game as intense as this one (especially when playing in the elements is considered) having faith in your depth can sometimes be the difference, and it's nice to know the Capitals can dress twelve forwards who can contribute every shift - even when several of them might be in Hershey were everyone healthy.

As much fun as the Winter Classic was, in some ways it has been a shadow over the Caps season to this point, serving as much as a distraction as a source of motivation.  Now's the time of the year the team needs to bear down and focus on hockey because now's the time of the year good teams look to start becoming great - when the spotlight's off them, when they correct their mistakes through diligence and hard work; when other are tempted to give in to the grind of a long season.  

Let's see if the Caps have what it takes to become great.

Continue reading this post »

[GameCenter - Game Summary - Event Summary - Faceoff Summary - Corsi/Fenwick - Shift Charts - Head-to-Head - Zone Starts]

There wasn't going to be any way around the fact that the story of this game was going to be the matchup between last season's Presidents' Trophy winners and the team that upset them in the playoffs, even for Caps fans who knew no matter what the outcome was, the game could only mean so much.  That being said, it was awfully nice to see the Capitals no only come out and win, but do so by playing a well-rounded game, and by playing hard.  

The two points are most likely going to be fairly negligible when the end of the season comes around, but a solid win against the team that knocked you out last year, while you're coming out of a slump, and immediately preceding the biggest regular-season game of the year - well, that might not be.

Ten more notes on the game:

• Obviously most of the discussion about centers and the Capitals this year has been about who's going to play the position, what their odds of being successful are, whether the team needs to look outside the organization for help; thing of that nature.  Lost, at times, in that discussion is just how lucky we are as Caps fans to have a guy like Nicklas Backstrom suiting up for our favorite team every night.  There aren't many guys who could have made that first period pass and created the team's second goal.
• ...of course, being able to pass the puck to a guy like Mike Green helps you create goals, too.  There aren't too many defensemen who can finish like that, either.
• Very good night out of Eric Fehr, who was getting to the net, taking shots, battling for the puck, and even mixing up with the opposition a little.  Despite the underwhelming season-long numbers, these games seem to be coming more and more often for the right winger, who has always had the potential, but has had trouble with consistency.
• The way P.K. Subban stood over Jason Chimera after his first period hit on the Caps' winger was enough to make me wish D.J. King were healthy and dressed for the night.
• So did Travis Moen's hit from behind on John Erskine.  That's the dirtiest play in hockey, aside of a suckerpunch or a slewfoot, and I cringe any time I see someone get hit like that.
• Everyone who knew Jay Beagle was capable of pulling off that move, raise your hand.  Yeah, me either.
• Whether it was adjusting to a new system, adjusting to new teammates, or just a general funk, Scott Hannan was simply not very good when he first joined the Capitals.  Tonight's game - his thirteenth with Washington - may have been his best, or at least his most consistent, since joining the team, borderline penalty notwithstanding.
• You have to love the effort on the part of Mike Knuble late in this game.  Those little things to knock some time off the clock and keep the puck away from your team's net aren't the most fun things to do in this game, but they sure are useful.
• It's not as though he's played a ton of NHL minutes or anything, but at this point, I don't have any idea what to make of Andrew Gordon.  Some nights he looked like he could be a really useful third-line energy guy who could occasionally chip in on offense; some nights he's invisible.  Whether that's a guy adjusting to the NHL or indicative of something more is a question only time can answer for sure.
• Hats off to the Capitals' centermen tonight.  Washington won 69% of the game's drawn, and no Cap who took more than three draws finished below 64%.  A special nod goes to Backstrom, who was successful on 10 of his 12 draws.

So, the Caps come away with a solid win, a shutout, and about as much vengeance for last spring as they could have realistically hoped for. And, just as importantly, they've primed themselves for the Winter Classic.

Continue reading this post »

[GameCenter - Game Summary - Event Summary - Faceoff Summary - Corsi/Fenwick - Shift Charts - Head-to-Head - Zone Starts]

On the scoreboard, the Washington Capitals are still mired in an ugly losing streak.  On the ice, however, they looked better than they have for at least a half dozen games, and if they'd had slightly better luck, they could very well have won this one handily (that may sound like an excuse, but it's true).  Nonetheless, the Caps were playing smarter, getting to the net more consistently, and forechecking with purpose and, for now, any fears that Bruce Boudreau had lost the room should be assuaged.

Ten more notes on the game:

• It was interesting to see Bruce Boudreau decide to match David Steckel, Brooks Laich, and Matt Bradley against the Ducks' top line, especially given the fact that's not exactly a group of defensive world-beaters for the Caps.  Most likely it was just a combination of the fact the Ducks are essentially a one line team, especially with Teemu Selanne out, and the fact Alexander Semin's absence meant the Capitals would be less able to dictate the course of play, but when a coach changes something that's pretty fundamental to his coaching strategy, you have wonder if he's feeling a bit of heat.
• Although the Caps' new checking line looked pretty solid, David Steckel had a few very low percentage wristers from the blue line on the forecheck.  Keeping the puck deep in the other guys' zone is one of the ways a checking line can be most effective, and throwing those kinds of shots at the goalie, well, it doesn't really work towards that end.
• Also of note?  The Capitals decidedly conservative approach to tonight's game, especially at the game's outset.  The team didn't always look completely comfortable with the new approach, but for a team like the Caps, who are going to be in the postseason barring an epic collapse, now is the time to make the adjustments that make you uncomfortable.  Major credit to the team and coaching staff to go out and try something different in the midst of their struggles.
• The Capitals' powerplay did two things that we haven't seen nearly enough of recently - they kept the puck in their opponent's zone, and they kept their feet moving and looked to create scoring opportunities.  They may not have picked up a goal, but it once again feels like it's only going to be a matter of change.
• There's a world of difference between a healthy Nicklas Backstrom and a flu-ridden Nicklas Backstrom, huh?
• I understand that Mike Knuble was just trying to go after the puck and put on pressure on the forecheck, but, man, taking a penalty for tripping Sheldon Brookbank at the Ducks' goal line was awfully hard to take.  And those always seem to be the shorthanded situations you team fails to kill off, don't they?
• Mathieu Perreault was just 1-for-10 on the faceoff dot, and didn't win a draw until the third period.  It doesn't matter how slick or energetic you are, if you're going to play center at the NHL level, you simply need to be better.
• Not a historically great night by any means for Semyon Varlamov, but he bounced back after a truly horrific outing in New York on Sunday.  Especially impressive was his ability to avoid the urge to do too much and instead just play his game.
• Obviously the Capitals are far from full strength up front, but pairing up Jason Chimera and Eric Fehr just doesn't work.  Each player can be very effective in a complimentary role, but when they're playing together on a depth line, there's no one there to be the line's driving force, neither guy can do what makes him most valuable to the team.
• A couple quick notes on shift length: For the team, the median average shift length was 44 seconds, no forward was over 50 seconds, and Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom both averaged 44 seconds.  Just one more thing to feel positive about.

One solid effort doesn't break a losing streak any more than one mediocre effort means the end of a got streak - but it's a start.

Continue reading this post »

[With an unimpressive playoff record to his credit and at the helm of a team with a "Cup or bust" approach, Bruce Boudreau wasn't going to have a whole lot of margin for error in the 2010-11 season, and now that the Capitals have hit a rough patch questions about his job security are starting to be asked - even to Boudreau himself.  We know where Gabby stands on the issue, but we also thought we'd take a deeper look at a potential Capitals coaching change.]

David Getz: Let's not beat around the bush, folks. The Capitals are really struggling right now. They're losing games, they look disorganized, disheartened, and even dispassionate. Many of the bad habits of last season remain and, given that coach Bruce Boudreau's proverbial leash was almost certainly shortened given last spring's early playoff exit, it shouldn't be surprising that chatter about his job security has picked up in the last couple days.

But is it warranted? What's your take on considering replacing Boudreau? Is it preemptive, has it been something we should have already been talking about, or is now the right time to start thinking about it?

Stephen Pepper: "Many of the bad habits of last season remain." That's the bottom line, and why the discussion of whether a replacement is needed behind the bench is entirely appropriate. The beginning of this regular season was replete with acknowledgments -- if not promises -- that the Caps in 2010-11 were going to focus their regular season efforts on "winning the right way." Thirty-two games in, the team finds itself struggling to score a single goal, much less winning the right way, or any way.  It's also found itself on the wrong end of shutouts four times in the last 13 games, three times allowing five goals against or more.

A team with solid leadership, together with the level of talent that the Caps have, simply does not follow up a 3-0 loss at home against the 27th-best team in the league with an uneven (to put it charitably) effort in friendly confines, and then head on the road to get embarrassed to the tune of 7-0. Coach Boudreau looks dangerously close to desperate on the level of former coach Glen Hanlon just prior to the latter's dismissal.  As Hanlon struggled to put together line combinations and devised all manners of new practice drills designed to get the team's star players to work through opponents' relentless shot-blocking, similarly has Boudreau juggled the offensive lines to a frenzied pitch in the last two contests. And Hanlon had considerably less talent with which to work.

Continue reading this post »