With Alex Rodriguez set to undergo a surgical procedure on his hip that will sideline him for 6-9 weeks, the New York Yankees are obviously left with a huge void at third base. Just how much will A Rod's absence hurt the Yankees in the ultra-competitive, every-game-counts American League East? Here's a quick estimation of Rodriguez's VOCR (Value Over Cody Ransom). For the offensive projections, I used CHONE's wOBA forecast.  

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It's that time of the offseason where things grind to a halt. There just hasn't been a whole lot to placate the rabid baseball fan in recent days, unless Matt Murton to the Rockies and Corey Wimberly to the A's strikes your fancy.

As such, let's take a look at an intriguing, controversial issue that Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus brought up recently: moving The Captain off of shortstop and into center field, and filling New York's glamour position with free agent Orlando Cabrera.

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Wading into the free agent pitching waters is just about the most treacherous activity that a team can undertake. There are certainly some bargains to be had, but the history of lengthy, exorbitantly-priced contracts for the most coveted arms on the market is mixed at best.

By definition, a free agent has accumulated at least six years of service time at the major league level, meaning that his days of making less than his fair market value are over. Add in the injury and attrition rates for pitchers and the uncertainty of projecting player performance more than a few years out, and you have a recipe for some expensive mistakes.

To get an idea of the return on investment that clubs have been getting from free agent hurlers, let's take a look at the pitchers who received multi-year deals during the 2006/2007 offseason and how their level of performance stacks up to their salary.

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Jon Lester

#31 / Pitcher / Boston Red Sox

Height: 6-2

Weight: 190

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jan 07, 1984

A World Series-clinching win. A successful battle against non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. A no-hitter. Red Sox southpaw Jon Lester has already compiled a career's worth of accomplishments, and he's only going on 25.

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Oliver Perez

#46 / Pitcher / New York Mets

Height: 6-3

Weight: 215

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Aug 15, 1981

Oliver Perez has been around the majors so long that it's easy to forget that he is still a relatively young man. The Culiacan, Mexico native made his big league debut all the way back in 2002 as a 20 year-old for the San Diego Padres, and enters free agency as a rare commodity: a lefty starter with a few years to go before his 30th birthday.

With the other young southpaw on the market, C.C. Sabathia, becoming Yankee property, attention now turns to the second tier of free agent starters which Perez is a part of. Perez's agent, Scott Boras, has been in full-fledged spin mode with the 27 year-old, going so far as to liken him to a young Sandy Koufax. While that comparison is, um, interesting, this seems like a good time so separate hyperbole from fact. Let's take a stab at calculating Perez's fair market value.

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Prior to the 2007 season, prodigal son Andy Pettitte returned to the New York Yankees. A product of the now defunct draft-and-follow process all the way back in 1991, Pettitte made his Bronx debut in 1995. He proceeded to post an ERA+ at least 10 percent better than the league average in six of  nine seasons during his first tenure with the Yankees, before taking his act to Houston for three years. Upon returning to the Bombers, Pettitte compiled another impressive season in 2007 (110 ERA+) before seemingly declining this past year, with an ERA+ below the league average for the first time in his career (98 ERA+).

A free agent at season's end, Pettitte nonetheless qualified for Type A Free agent status, meaning that the Yankees were essentially faced with the following choices. They could have:

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The Seattle Mariners have made plenty of capricious decisions over the past few years. Without even getting into the debacle that is the major league roster, the M's have shown a tendency to expedite players through the minor league system, zooming them past levels that the players are probably not yet equipped to handle. Brandon Morrow is one such example of this trend.

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Craig Hansen looks like a dominant reliever. A hulking 6-6, 240 pound righthander with excellent arm strength and a slider that can make grown men weep on occasion, Hansen was ticketed for near-immediate success following his selection in the first round of the 2005 amateur draft. The Boston Red Sox popped Hansen with the 26th overall pick, dishing out a $4.4M major league contract on the premise that the St. John's star would be ready to shoulder a high-leverage role in the bullpen in short order.

Suffice it to say, Hansen has not lived up to those expectations in his professional career. Hansen missed a good deal of bats in the minors (8.28 K/9) and posted a superficially impressive 2.62 ERA, but his inability to throw consistent strikes led to inflated walk totals (4.32 BB/9). In 76.1 career major league innings, Hansen has struck out just 6.84 batters per 9 innings, a tepid number for a reliever thought to possess dominant stuff, while dishing out 5.3 walks/9. The Red Sox, not exactly teeming with quality bullpen arms, were nonetheless willing to ship out Hansen as part of a much larger deal that netted Pittsburgh's Jason Bay.

Now in Pittsburgh, Hansen's chances to play a significant part in the 'pen have increased exponentially. With Matt Capps (shoulder) on the rehab trail and Damaso Marte now pitching in the Bronx, the esrtwhile top prospect can work his way into a prominent role, should Hansen's performance merit a chance at late-inning heroics.

What, exactly, has led to the discord between Hansen's scouting reports (high-90's gas, wicked slider) and his performance (1.29 K/BB, 76 ERA+)? To find out, I am going to delve into Hansen's Pitchf/x data, searching for a reason why the man ticketed to become Boston's closer is instead pitching mop-up innings for Pittsburgh.

The chart shows the vertical and horizontal movement (in inches) that Hansen got on his pitches, relative to a pitch thrown without spin. The X axis shows the amount of horizontal movement on Hansen’s pitches, while the Y axis shows the amount of vertical movement on the pitches. The chart is from the view of the catcher, so pitches with a negative horizontal (X axis) value are tailing in on a righthanded hitter. Pitches with a low vertical (Y axis) value are moving down in the strike zone; the lower the Y value, the more downward movement the pitch has.

Pitch MPH X(In.) Z(In.) %Thrown

FB 95.3 -4.38 7.38 65.4

SL 86.9 1.57 -0.14 33.8

CH 88.9 -11.12 5.20 0.8

Type is the type of pitch thrown. FB=Fastball, SL=Slider, CH=Changeup. MPH is the average initial velocity of the pitch. X is the amount of horizontal movement on the pitch. Remember, a negative X value means the pitch is moving toward a righthanded batter. Z is the amount of vertical movement on the pitch. The lower the Z value, the more downward movement on the pitch. %Thrown is the percentage that Hansen threw each pitch.

Hansen's fastball is a misleading pitch. It's the sort of offering that may look impressive at first glance because of its velocity, but upon further inspection is a bit more suspect than the radar gun would have you believe. While Hansen fires it an an average velocity of 95.3 MPH, the pitch actually has below-average horizontal and vertical movement. The 24 year-old's cheese does not tail in on righthanded hitters especially well (-4.38 X; the average is -5.46) and does not have the illusory "rising action" to compensate (7.38 X; 9.78 is the average vertical movement). In other words, Hansen's fastball is fairly "straight" to home plate. The old baseball axiom states that major league hitters will tee off on a straight fastball no matter its speed, and this appears to be the case with Hansen- opponents are hiting .288 versus his heater as of August 5th.

The St. Johns star's lofty prospect status was built largely upon his slider, a nasty pitch that can buckle hitters' knees at times. While Hansen is inconsistent with the pitch (look at how the red cluster has some "hanging sliders up in the heart of the zone and some deadly ones as low as -5X), his slider remains a plus pitch. Hansen's 87 MPH breaker has above-average horizontal movement away from righthanded hitters (1.57 X; the average is 0.7X) and plenty of tilting action (-0.14 Z; the average is 3.7 X). When Hansen spots the pitch well, it looks like something out of an old Nintendo RBI Baseball game. Unfortunately for Craig, the quality of the pitch varies quite a bit.

Hansen has also thrown a few changeups, but it's probably not wise to read much into such a small sample (0.8 percent of his total pitches). For what it's worth, the pitch has good fading action and a decent amount of drop compared to his fastball. Given his struggles against lefthanded batters (.315/.401/.476 career vs. LHB; .254/.359/.373 vs. RHB), perhaps Hansen should toss in a few more changeups to lefties, just for variety's sake.

So, where does Craig Hansen go from here? We have seen that his fastball is not all it's cracked up to be, but he still throws plenty hard and can unleash a devastating slider at times. According to Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system, Hansen's most comparable player is Ryan Wagner, another college closer pegged for quick success who has fallen by the wayside (career 89 ERA+). Other recent comps include Blaine Boyer (95 ERA+), Gary Majewski (101 ERA+) and David Aardsma (102 ERA+).

At this point, the odds are against Hansen establishing himself as a late-inning force. If I had to peg odds off of the top of my head, I would say there's a 10 percent chance that he "gets it", makes a few mechanical changes and becomes a shutdown reliever, a 20 percent chance that he becomes the next Kyle Farnsworth and a 70 percent chance that he continues on his path of high-octane disappointment (then again, I suppose that is the Kyle Farnsworth career path). The Pirates received a fairly interesting player, as far as throw-ins go. Whether Hansen can make the necessary adjustments to succeed remains to be seen, but he will get the opportunity to redeem himself in a fluid bullpen situation in Pittsburgh.

A Journalism student at Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Driveline Mechanics, the Transaction Guy on the MVN Network and Inside Edge Scouting Services. Contact David at david@drivelinemechanics.com or golebie1029@duq.edu

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Cleveland Indians

Acquired Minor League C Carlos Santana and Minor League RHP Jonathan Meloan from the Dodgers in exchange for INF Casey Blake and cash considerations; acquired RHP Anthony Reyes from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for RHP Luis Perdomo

The Tribe do the July 31st dance as well as any organization in baseball. Be it a grandoise pilfering, such as acquiring Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips from the Expos for Bartolo Colon, or something less glamorous yet eminently prosperous, such as converting a lukewarm Broussard/Perez DH platoon into Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo (Thanks, Seattle!), Cleveland's front office just gets it. Having effectively waived the white flag following the unloading of C.C. Sabathia, the Indians managed to convert a 34 year-old, league average bat into two interesting prospects, while also flipping a reliever for a a righthanded starter who retains a fair amount of promise.

Casey Blake is a perfect example of Cleveland's ability to buy low and sell high. Blake was a 29 year-old, minor league vagabond before latching on with the Tribe in 2003. Despite a strong minor league track record (.292/.371/.469), Blake had bounced around the Toronto, Minnesota, and Baltimore organizations prior to landing in Cleveland. Signed to a minor league free agent contract in December of '02, Blake ended up giving the Indians an OPS+ above 100 in four of his six seasons with the club. Blake may well continue to pay dividends in 2009 and beyond, as the Indians added catcher Carlos Santana and righthander Jonathan Meloan from the Dodgers.

Santana, 22, is a switch-hitter with solid strike-zone discipline. A converted outfielder, Santana has the requisite athleticism and arm strength for the position (46 CS% in the Cal League, after gunning out 38% in the Midwest League in '07), but he remains a little raw behind the dish (16 errors). The 5-11, 170 pounder posted rather tepid lines in 2006 (.268/.345/.384 at Vero Beach) and 2007 (.223/.319/.371 at Great Lakes), but 2008 has brought forth a .325/.431/.563 line in 436 PA, with a healthy 16.7 BB% and 13.5 K%. Some of that is almost certainly a product of the notoriously hitter-friendly Cal League, but Santana's combination of agility and strike-zone control makes him a player worth keeping an eye on.

Meloan, 24, has posted less-than-spectacular numbers at AAA in 2008: 105 IP, 4.97 ERA, 99/60 K/BB, 119 hits allowed. However, those numbers need to be placed in the proper context. The Arizona product was converted from the 'pen to the rotation in '08 (a role he's not especially suited for), and had the misfortune of pitching in Las Vegas: Cashman Field increases extra base hits, and the Pacific Coast League inflates home run production by 12 percent overall. A 6-3, 225 pounder with a low-90's fastball and a plus slider, Meloan performed considerably better as a reliever in 2007 (66.2 IP, 2.03 ERA, 91/27 K/BB between AA Jacksonville and AAA Las Vegas). If placed back in the 'pen, Meloan could be ready to contribute in Cleveland by April 2009.

While converting a .270/.330/.430-type hitter into two prospects was shrewd, Cleveland may have pulled a bigger coup by acquiring Anthony Reyes from the Cardinals in exchange for 24 year-old righty Luis Perdomo. Reyes, 26, long ranked as one of St. Louis' prized youngsters. However, the organization soured on the USC product, the speculative reason being that Reyes wished to be more of a "power pitcher" (thus using a 4-seamer with regularity), while pitching coach Dave Duncan wanted him to utilize a sinker to generate ground balls. The 6-2, 215 pounder has often been dominant in the minors, while showing some glimpses of promise at the major league level:

ERA K/9 BB/9 H/9 HR/9

Minors (Total) 3.33 8.89 2.22 7.75 0.93

Majors (Total) 5.38 6.85 3.43 8.73 1.51

Reyes' main issue at the highest level has been the long-ball: a fly-ball pitcher, Reyes is going to give up his fair share of homers. Was Duncan on to something by suggesting that Reyes change his style in an attempt to limit the damage induced by home runs? It's difficult to say, but a quick look at Reyes' 2008 Pitchf/x data (courtesy of Josh Kalk's blog) suggests that the righty still has the stuff that gained him notoriety in the minors:

Type MPH X(In.) Z(In.)

FB 93.05 -4.9 8.5

CB 80.95 3.99 -2.72

CH 80.96 -7.16 5.59

Type is the type of pitch thrown. FB=fastball, CB=curveball, CH=Changeup . MPH is the average initial velocity of the pitch. X is the amount of horizontal movement on the pitch. A negative X value means the pitch is moving toward a righthanded batter. Z is the amount of vertical movement on the pitch. The lower the Z value, the more downward movement on the pitch.

Reyes' fastball has solid velocity (93.05 MPH), but you can begin to see where the pitch may get him in trouble. His heater is a bit "true" (straight), as it lacks great tailing action in on righties (-4.9X; the league average is -5.46) or illusory "rising" action (8.5 Z; 9.78 league average). His offspeed offerings are more promising: the sweeping curveball is considered a plus pitch by scouts, and his changeup shows good fading and diving action.

It's possible that Reyes will encounter Jason Bergmann-like issues with the long ball, but he is at least going to a ballpark that suppresses home run production:

Year ESPN HR Park Factor

05 0.872

06 0.866

07 1.104

08 0.683

Park factors can be fickle, but Jacobs (er....Progressive) Field has decreased tater production in three of the past four seasons. If Reyes is going to find major league success in spite of his flyball tendencies, Cleveland is a great place to do it. For what it's worth, Reyes has posted a 48 GB% for AAA Memphis this season.

Neither one of these swaps will garner flashy headlines, but these are the sorts of moves that build organizational depth, allowing a team to utilize cost-effective roster solutions as opposed to paying through the nose for marginal players on the free agent market. Rather than paying, say, Carlos Silva $48 million over four seasons for 4th-starter production (sorry, Seattle!), the Indians can turn to Reyes, who retains a fair degree of promise and will make peanuts for the next few seasons. Santana may develop enough to be an option behind the dish or trade fodder, and Meloan is a MLB-ready reliever who should pay dividends in short order. In short, Mark Shaprio and company have a firm understanding of the value of cost-controlled talent, and continue to procure goodies from GMs who aren't quite as in tune with the player development process.

David Golebiewski, a journalism student at Duquesne University, is a contributing writer for Driveline Mechanics, The Transaction Guy on the MVN Network and Inside Edge Scouting Services. Contact David at david@drivelinemechanics.com or golebie1029@duq.edu

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Upon checking the box scores this morning, I came across the following line during a 19-4 Detroit drubbing of the Royals:

Pena 1.0 IP 0H 0R 0ER 0BB 1K

Expecting to see the usual hilarity that ensues when a position player takes the mound (a la Jamie Burke), I queued up Pena's inning on MLB.TV.

Wow. Instead of poorly-placed, low-80's junk, Pena was bringing it. The offensively- challenged shortstop hit the low-90's on several occasions, and even mixed in a few curveballs. Intrigued by Pena's performance, I decided to take a look at his Pitch F/X data for the outing.

The chart shows the vertical and horizontal movement (in inches) that Pena Jr. got on his pitches, relative to a pitch thrown without spin. The X axis shows the amount of horizontal movement on Tony's pitches, while the Y axis shows the amount of vertical movement on the pitches. The chart is from the view of the catcher, so pitches with a negative horizontal (X axis) value are tailing in on a righthanded hitter. Pitches with a low vertical (Y axis) value are moving down in the strike zone; the lower the Y value, the more downward movement the pitch has.

Type MPH X(In.) Z(In.) #Thrown

FB 90.2 -7.90 3.90 8

CB 75.9 7.76 0.09 4

Type is the type of pitch thrown. FB=Fastball, CB=Curveball. MPH is the average initial velocity of the pitch. X is the amount of horizontal movement on the pitch. Remember, a negative X value means the pitch is moving toward a righthanded batter. Z is the amount of vertical movement on the pitch. The lower the Z value, the more downward movement on the pitch. #Thrown is the number of times that Pena threw each pitch.

Color me impressed. The career .236/.255/.316 hitter ramped his heater into the low-90's, with an average velocity of 90.2 MPH. In addition, the pitch had plenty of tailing action in on Tiger righthanders (-7.90 X) with sinking action to boot (3.90 Z).

Pena's "slurve" broke away quite a bit from righthanders (7.76 X) while also displaying some tilting action (0.09 Z). Pena actually caught Tigers backstop Ivan Rodriguez looking on a sweeping breaking ball. Pena can now say that he struck out a future hall of famer.

This "analysis" is mostly tongue-in-cheek, but it does at least make you wonder if Pena Jr. would be more serviceable as a reliever than as a shortstop. One of the Royals announcers even alluded to Rafael Betancourt, a converted shortstop who has gone on to have a successful major league career as a fastball-oriented reliever. Sure, it's an apples-to-oranges comparison (Betancourt began that transition in 1997 in the minors, made stops in Japan and suffered through injury woes), but the premise is still the same as we have seen from other converts: Pena Jr. just not going to hit enough to play, so why not give that live arm a shot on the mound?

Let's face it, Pena Jr. cannot hit. At all. With zero pop (.80 ISO), patience (17 career walks) or contact ability (16.6 K%), he's going to have to cover an ungoldy amount of territory to be worth employing on a regular basis. The pitching sample size is incredibly small, but I'm sure that some members of the Royals organization are at least pondering the idea of letting Pena Jr. unleash some high heat, as opposed to making a futile attempt to hit it.

David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Driveline Mechanics, The Transaction Guy on the MVN Network, and Inside Edge Scouting Services. David is a Journalism major at Duquesne University. To contact David, drop a line at david@drivelinemechanics.com or golebie1029@duq.edu

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